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  • August 16, 2022 - Florida Statewide Poll

    UNF Poll: Fried Leading in Democratic Governor’s Primary

    Press Release

    Sample Demographics

  • February 24, 2022 - Florida Statewide Poll

    New UNF Poll shows wide lead for DeSantis in Governor’s Race

    Press Release

  • February 22, 2022 - Florida Statewide Poll

    New UNF Poll on Legislative Issues Shows Opposition to Florida Abortion Bill

    Press Release

  • October 20, 2020 - Florida Presidential Election Poll

    The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll is comprised of 863 registered, likely Florida voters and was conducted Monday, October 12 through Saturday, October 16, 2020.

    Press Release

  • October 6, 2020 - Florida Poll Online

    Florida Statewide Poll of likely voters from an online sample frame.

    Press Release

  • April 6, 2020 - Florida COVID-19 Poll
    The UNF COVID-19 Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion
    Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Tuesday, March 31 through Saturday, April
    4, 2020. The survey was administered through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform.
    The sample frame was comprised of 3,244 registered Florida voters, 18 years of age or older.
    The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the Florida’s Division of Elections
    February update and selected through the use of probability sampling among registered voters
    in the Florida voter file. Oversamples of Duval County and the cities of Orlando, Tampa and
    Miami were also included. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/-1.7 percentage points.

    Press Release

  • March 12, 2020 - Florida Democratic Primary Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida Thursday, March 5 through Tuesday, March 10, 2020 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. daily with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. The sample frame was comprised of 1,502 registered likely Democratic voters in Florida, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were determined through vote history (those who voted in the 2016 Democratic primary or the 2018 Democratic primary) and a self-identified likelihood to vote. All voters who were 20 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they may not have been eligible to vote previous elections. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote," "probably vote," or “already voted” in the upcoming Florida Democratic Primary Election qualified to participate in the survey. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the February 2020 update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in Spanish and English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

    Press Release
  • February 21, 2020 - Florida Statewide Poll
    The UNF/First Coast News Florida Statewide Poll is comprised of 725 Florida registered voters and was conducted Monday, Feb. 10 through Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2020 by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida who sponsored in partnership with First Coast News. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters, 18 years of age or older, contacted by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. daily with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the December update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in Spanish and English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
     
    Press Release
  • February 20, 2020 - Florida Presidential Preference Poll
    The UNF/First Coast News Florida Statewide Poll is comprised of 725 Florida registered voters and was conducted Monday, Feb. 10 through Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2020 by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida who sponsored in partnership with First Coast News. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters, 18 years of age or older, contacted by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. daily with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the December update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in Spanish and English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.6 percentage points.
    Press Release
  • November 18, 2019 - South Carolina‚Äôs Democratic Primary

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, Nov. 9 through Wednesday Nov. 13, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.7 percentage points. 

    Press Release

  • October 24, 2019 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, Oct. 14, through Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. during the week and noon to 9 p.m during the weekends with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    Press Release
  • October 22, 2019 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, Oct. 14, through Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. during the week and noon to 9 p.m during the weekends with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    Press Release
  • March 4, 2019 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Wednesday, Feb. 20, through Wednesday, Feb. 27, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.3 percentage points.


    Embargo for March 4, 2019 - 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    Crosstabs 

    New UNF Poll Shows Majority Approve DeSantis' Job PerformanceSen. Rubio Garners Higher Approval Over Sen. Scott

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of Florida registered voters that reveals a majority approve of the job Ron DeSantis is doing as governor. The survey also shows job approval for Sen. Marco Rubio is higher than job approval for newly elected Sen. Rick Scott.

    The poll, comprised of registered voters in the state of Florida, shows approval for Gov. DeSantis at 60 percent overall, with a net positive of 41 points. Not surprisingly, the strongest support comes from registered Republicans at 81 percent approval and only 45 percent approval among registered Democrats. Overall, 21 percent don't know.

    Additionally, 51 percent of respondents approve either strongly or somewhat of how Rubio is handling his job, a net positive of 21 points. Seventy-one percent of Republicans approve and 36 percent of Democrats approve of the job that he's doing. These figures are lower for Scott, with 43 percent overall approving, but only a net positive of 10 points.

    Republican voters have 64 percent approval for Scott, and Democratic voters have 23 percent. Concerning Nikki Fried, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, 32 percent approve strongly or somewhat of the job she's doing, with a net positive of 21 points. Among Democrats, Fried has 33 percent approval, and among Republicans she has 29 percent approval. Fifty-eight percent don't know how she's performing.

    Gov. DeSantis is enjoying the honeymoon period of recently being elected. The question that will play out over the next two months is whether or not he can translate his popularity into policy during the legislative session in Tallahassee," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "Having unified Republican government should make things easier for the governor, but as we have seen in the past, personal relationships can make or break the budgeting process."

    When asked what they believe is the most important problem facing Florida, education topped the list with 19 percent, followed closely by the environment and health care with 18 and 17 percent, respectively. Immigration leads the way for Republican voters with 22 percent, and Democrats believe health care is the most important problem, also at 22 percent.

    Regarding the United States Space Command, 76 percent of registered voters support the Space Command being headquartered in Florida, 9 percent oppose, and 15 percent don't know. Among Democrats, support is at 67 percent, while Republicans have 85 percent support. When asked about allowing concealed carry on college campuses, 38 percent of registered voters support it, with 58 percent opposing. Democrats report 20 percent support of concealed carry on college campuses, while Republicans report 57 percent support. On a different note, only 46 percent of voters' support allowing teachers and school officials to conceal carry in K-12 schools, with 27 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans supporting it.

    "DeSantis' recent appeals to bring the Space Command headquarters to Florida has tremendous support within the state," Binder noted. "In a much more controversial policy discussion, guns on college campuses and armed teachers in K-12 schools have more opposition than support."

    Concerning smokable medical marijuana, 87 percent support legalization in Florida, while 12 percent oppose. Democratic voters have 89 percent support, while Republicans have 83 percent support. Similarly, when asked about recreational marijuana use, 62 percent of voters support legalizing it. Sixty-five percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans support the legalization of recreational marijuana.

    "Medical marijuana, in all of its forms, has overwhelming support among Florida's registered voters, Binder commented. "Even recreational marijuana, which has been proposed in the Florida legislature, has majority support among both Democrats and Republicans."

    Survey Results

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Ron DeSantis is handling his job as Governor of Florida?
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=853
    Strongly Approve 32%
    Somewhat Approve 28%
    Somewhat Disapprove 10%
    Strongly Disapprove 9%
    Don't Know 21%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=319 Republican Voters n=300
    Strongly Approve 17% 53%
    Somewhat Approve 28% 28%
    Somewhat Disapprove 16% 3%
    Strongly Disapprove 13% 4%
    Don't Know 26% 12%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=853
    Strongly Approve 17%
    Somewhat Approve 34%
    Somewhat Disapprove 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 16%
    Don't Know 19%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=314 Republican Voters n=301
    Strongly Approve 11% 29%
    Somewhat Approve 25% 42%
    Somewhat Disapprove 19% 9%
    Strongly Disapprove 24% 6%
    Don't Know 22% 15%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Rick Scott is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=848
    Strongly Approve 19%
    Somewhat Approve 24%
    Somewhat Disapprove 12%
    Strongly Disapprove 21%
    Don't Know 24%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=316 Republican Voters n=296
    Strongly Approve 8% 36%
    Somewhat Approve 15% 28%
    Somewhat Disapprove 17% 5%
    Strongly Disapprove 36% 8%
    Don't Know 25% 23%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Nikki Fried is handling her job as Florida Commissioner of Agriculture?
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=842
    Strongly Approve 10%
    Somewhat Approve 22%
    Somewhat Disapprove 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 4%
    Don't Know 58%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=309 Republican Voters n=298
    Strongly Approve 13% 8%
    Somewhat Approve 20% 21%
    Somewhat Disapprove 8% 6%
    Strongly Disapprove 5% 3%
    Don't Know 54% 63%

     

    What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today? (Choices Rotated)
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=869
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 9%
    Education 19%
    Healthcare 17%
    Immigration 13%
    Environment 18%
    Crime 13%
    Terrorism 1%
    Gun Policy 1%
    Race Relations <1%
    Something Else 6%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=324 Republican Voters n=304
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 10% 8%
    Education 19% 16%
    Healthcare 22% 13%
    Immigration 7% 22%
    Environment 20% 15%
    Crime 13% 14%
    Terrorism 1% 1%
    Gun Policy 1% <1%
    Race Relations <1% -
    Something Else 4% 9%
    Don't Know 1% 3%

     

    Changing topics, do you support or oppose the United States Space Command being headquartered in Florida?
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=867
    Strongly Support 52%
    Somewhat Support 24%
    Somewhat Oppose 4%
    Strongly Oppose 5%
    Don't Know 15%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=321 Republican Voters n=303
    Strongly Support 41% 66%
    Somewhat Support 26% 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 5% 3%
    Strongly Oppose 8% 1%
    Don't Know 20% 12%

    Early next month, Florida's legislative session will begin. Please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy changes in Florida:

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to carry concealed handguns into a college or university facility.
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=867
    Strongly Support 19%
    Somewhat Support 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 14%
    Strongly Oppose 44%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=320 Republican Voters n=304
    Strongly Support 8% 32%
    Somewhat Support 12% 25%
    Somewhat Oppose 10% 17%
    Strongly Oppose 67% 22%
    Don't Know 3% 4%

     

    Allowing teachers and school officials to carry guns in K-12 schools.
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=868
    Strongly Support 26%
    Somewhat Support 20%
    Somewhat Oppose 10%
    Strongly Oppose 44%
    Don't Know 2%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=322 Republican Voters n=303
    Strongly Support 12% 44%
    Somewhat Support 15% 24%
    Somewhat Oppose 8% 9%
    Strongly Oppose 65% 21%
    Don't Know 1% 3%

     

    Allowing adults in Florida to legally use smokable marijuana for medical purposes if their doctor prescribes it.
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=870
    Strongly Support 69%
    Somewhat Support 18%
    Somewhat Oppose 4%
    Strongly Oppose 8%
    Don't Know 1%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=323 Republican Voters n=304
    Strongly Support 72% 61%
    Somewhat Support 17% 22%
    Somewhat Oppose 3% 5%
    Strongly Oppose 6% 12%
    Don't Know 2% 1%

     

    Allowing adults in Florida to legally possess small amounts of marijuana for recreational use.
    Answer Options Florida Voters n=866
    Strongly Support 38%
    Somewhat Support 24%
    Somewhat Oppose 11%
    Strongly Oppose 25%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Voters n=321 Republican Voters n=303
    Strongly Support 43% 26%
    Somewhat Support 22% 25%
    Somewhat Oppose 10% 12%
    Strongly Oppose 23% 35%
    Don't Know 3% 2%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Florida Voters n=870
    Republican 35%
    Democrat 37%
    NPA and other 28%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Voters n=870
    18 to 24 9%
    25 to 34 16%
    35 to 44 14%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 17%
    65 and older 28%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Voters n=870
    White (not Hispanic) 63%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 17%
    Other 7%

     

    Sex
    Sex Florida Voters n=870
    Male 46%
    Female 54%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Voters n=870
    Landline 21%
    Cell phone 78%
    Refusal 1%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Florida Voters n=870
    Less than high school 5%
    High school graduate 16%
    Some college 49%
    College graduate 18%
    Post graduate degree 12%
    Refusal 1%

     

    What language was this survey completed in?
    Survey language completed in… Florida Voters n=870
    English 98%
    Spanish 2%

    Methodology

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Wednesday, Feb. 20, through Wednesday, Feb. 27, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of Florida voters. Overall, there were 870 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 21 percent to 78 percent, with 1 percent unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list.

    All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of one. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 25 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • October 30, 2018 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, October 23 through Friday, October 26, by live callers via the telephone.  Overall, there were 1,176 completed surveys with a total of 1,051 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3 percentage points. 


    Embargo for October 30, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Andrew Gillum Leading Ron DeSantis in 2018 Governor's RaceSen. Bill Nelson Narrowly Leading Over Gov. Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Andrew Gillum in the lead for the upcoming gubernatorial election in Florida, with Ron DeSantis close behind and Sen. Bill Nelson with a slight lead over Gov. Rick Scott in the upcoming Senate election for the state of Florida. The survey also shows that a supermajority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions after they have served their sentences.

    The poll, comprised of likely Florida voters, shows that 49 percent of respondents plan to vote for Gillum, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for Florida governor, while 43 percent plan to vote for the Republican candidate, DeSantis.

    Of those likely voters, 7 percent don't know who their choice will be. Among Democrats, 87 percent indicate they plan to vote for Gillum, 7 percent for DeSantis and 6 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. Ten percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Gillum, while 84 percent indicate they'll vote for DeSantis; 7 percent don't know. Among Non-Party Affiliates (NPA) and other party likely voters, 56 percent plan to vote for Gillum, 31 percent for DeSantis and 13 percent are undecided.

    Regarding the upcoming U.S. Senate race, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate, 46 percent would vote for Scott, the Republican and 7 percent didn't know. Of Democratic likely voters, 81 percent claim they will vote for Nelson, while 9 percent for Scott; 7 percent don't know. Among Republican respondents, 10 percent say they will vote for Nelson, 86 percent for Scott and 5 percent don't know.

    "Almost 3 million people have already voted, and Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race. The senate race with Nelson and Scott is neck and neck, and the few remaining undecided voters are going to play a pivotal role in the outcome," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "The big leads that both Gillum and Nelson have among NPA/Others highlights the importance of having the right amount of independents in your poll. Currently less than 18 percent of ballots cast have been by NPA/Others, we estimate that number will be 19 percent by November 6Th."

    When asked about the election for Florida Attorney General, 47 percent plan to vote for Ashley Moody, the Republican, and 40 percent of respondents indicated that they would vote for Sean Shaw, the Democrat; 13 percent don't know. In regards to the election for the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, 43 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Nikki Fried, the Democrat, 41 percent for Matt Caldwell, the Republican, and 17 percent don't know.

    "Moody appears to have a comfortable lead in the Attorney General race, but the Agricultural Commission race is much tighter. Fried has a small lead, but there are a lot of undecided voters in both of the lower information cabinet races," Binder stated.

    Additionally, the poll reveals that respondents continue to show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote "yes" or "no" on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 69 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 23 percent voting "no." Only 8 percent didn't know how they would vote. Regarding race, 93 percent of African-American respondents indicated they would vote "yes" on the amendment, while 66 percent of white respondents and 61 percent of Hispanic respondents claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition.

    "Compared to our most recent poll in September, support for Amendment 4 has slipped a couple of points, but it still remains well above the 60 percent mark required for passage. Republican support has fallen by 9 percent, most likely due to some prominent Republican candidates expressing hesitation about the amendment," said Binder.

    When likely voters were asked about banning offshore oil drilling and adding restrictions on vaping, 48 percent indicated that they would vote "yes," while 36 percent say they will vote "no". Sixteen percent don't know how they will vote. Of Democratic likely voters, 55 percent say they will vote "yes," 33 percent will vote "no," and 12 percent don't know. Thirty-eight percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote "yes," 42 percent will vote "no," and 20 percent don't know.

    "The CRC bundled amendment that combines an offshore drilling ban and a workplace vaping ban has very little chance of passing based on these results. It's extremely rare for a ballot measure to garner more support in an election than it does in polling leading up to the election," Binder noted.

    Regarding Trump's job approval, 45 percent of likely voters indicate that they approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 51 percent disapprove. Four percent don't know.

    *Due to rounding, some columns may add up to more 100%

    ** Candidate choices were randomly rotated

    Survey Results:

    If the election for Florida governor were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,048
    Andrew Gillum, the Democrat 49%
    Ron DeSantis, the Republican 43%
    Someone Else <1%
    Don't Know 7%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=422 Republican Likely Voters n=431 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=194
    Andrew Gillum, the Democrat 87% 10% 56%
    Ron DeSantis, the Republican 7% 84% 31%
    Someone Else 1% - 1%
    Don't Know 6% 7% 13%

     

    If the 2018 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,045
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 47%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 46%
    Someone Else <1%
    Don't Know 7%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=420 Republican Likely Voters n=431 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=193
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 81% 10% 53%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 9% 86% 36%
    Someone Else 1% - -
    Don't Know 9% 5% 10%

     

    If the election for Florida Attorney General were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,048
    Sean Shaw, the Democrat 40%
    Ashley Moody, the Republican 47%
    Someone Else <1%
    Don't Know 13%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=422 Republican Likely Voters n=431 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=195
    Sean Shaw, the Democrat 74% 6% 39%
    Ashley Moody, the Republican 13% 84% 40%
    Someone Else <1% - -
    Don't Know 13% 10% 22%

     

    If the election for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,046
    Nikki Fried, the Democrat 43%
    Matt Caldwell, the Republican 41%
    Someone Else <1%
    Don't Know 17%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=424 Republican Likely Voters n=430 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=194
    Nikki Fried, the Democrat 79% 8% 41%
    Matt Caldwell, the Republican 7% 77% 34%
    Someone Else - <1% 1%
    Don't Know 14% 15% 25%

     

    Amendment Four restores the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence, including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses, who would continue to be permanently barred from voting unless the Governor or Cabinet vote to restore their voting rights on a case by case basis. If the election were held today, would you vote "yes" or "no" for this proposition?
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,049
    Yes 69%
    No 23%
    Don't Know 8%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=422 Republican Likely Voters n=430 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=196
    Yes 84% 53% 71%
    No 10% 37% 22%
    Don't Know 6% 10% 7%

     

    By Race
    Answer Options White Likely Voters n=721 Black Likely Voters n=139 Hispanic Likely Voters n=132 Other Race Likely Voters n=56
    Yes 66% 93% 61% 63%
    No 26% 6% 27% 25%
    Don't Know 8% 1% 13% 13%

     

    Amendment Nine prohibits drilling for the exploration or extraction of oil and natural gas beneath all state-owned waters between the mean high water line and the state's outermost territorial boundaries. Adds use of vapor-generating electronic devices to current prohibition of tobacco smoking in enclosed indoor workplaces with exceptions; permits more restrictive local vapor ordinances. If the election were held today, would you vote "yes" or "no" for this proposition?
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,046
    Yes 48%
    No 36%
    Don't Know 16%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=422 Republican Likely Voters n=427 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=196
    Yes 55% 38% 54%
    No 33% 42% 30%
    Don't Know 12% 20% 17%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=1,039
    Approve 45%
    Disapprove 51%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=421 Republican Likely Voters n=427 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=192
    Approve 11% 84% 36%
    Disapprove 86% 13% 57%
    Don't Know 4% 3% 7%

    Survey Demographics

    Party Registration
    Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    Republican 41%
    Democrat 40%
    NPA and other 19%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    18 to 24 8%
    25 to 34 9%
    35 to 44 11%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 21%
    65 and older 35%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    White (not Hispanic) 69%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 13%
    Other 5%

     

    Sex Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Likely Voters n=1,047
    Landline 27%
    Cell phone 73%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    Less than high school 4%
    High school graduate 21%
    Some college 34%
    College graduate 25%
    Post graduate degree 16%

     

    What language was this survey completed in?
    Survey language completed in… Florida Likely Voters n=1,051
    English 96%
    Spanish 4%

    Methodology:

    The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, October 23 through Friday, October 26, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' October 10, 2018 update.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, 2018 primary election or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. Additionally, a small segment of 'unlikely' voters (11 percent of respondents), demographically representative of all registered voters, were included in the sample to capture potential new voters. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote", "probably vote" or have "already voted" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 1,176 completed surveys with a total of 1,051 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. Only data from likely voters is presented here.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state.

    Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2014 exit polls. The ACS identifies 28 percent Floridians aged 25 and older as having a college degree, whereas 51 percent of the 2014 Florida exit polls were college educated. Due to the education bias in survey participation, we split the difference and weighted to 40 percent of our sample having a college degree. Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the October 10, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • September 24, 2018 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, September 17 through Wednesday, September 19, 2018 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students and employees in English and Spanish. Overall, there were 654 completed surveys with a total of 616 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.95 percentage points.


    Embargo for September 24, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    Crosstab (PDF)  

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Gillum ahead of DeSantis for Governor with Nelson and Scott Tied for SenateHigh Support for Restoring Felon Voting Rights Among Likely Voters

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Andrew Gillum in the lead for the upcoming gubernatorial election in Florida, with Ron DeSantis close behind, and Sen. Bill Nelson locked in a dead heat with Gov. Rick Scott in the upcoming Senate election for the state of Florida. The survey also shows that a supermajority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions after they have served their sentences.

    The poll, comprised of likely Florida voters, shows that 47 percent of respondents plan to vote for Gillum, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for Florida governor, while 43 percent plan to vote for the Republican candidate, DeSantis.

    Of those likely voters, 10 percent don't know who their choice will be. Among Democrats, 85 percent indicate they plan to vote for Gillum, 6 percent for DeSantis and 9 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. Eleven percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Gillum, while 81 percent indicate they'll vote for DeSantis; eight percent don't know.

    Regarding the upcoming U.S. Senate race, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 45 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate, 45 percent would vote for Scott, the Republican, and 8 percent didn't know. Of Democratic likely voters, 78 percent claim they will vote for Nelson, while 9 percent for Scott; thirteen percent don't know. Among Republican respondents, 12 percent say they will vote for Nelson, 83 percent for Scott and 4 percent don't know.

    "It's still early in the election season and even though Gillum has a small lead, a lot can happen in the next six weeks. Nelson and Scott are currently tied, but one bit of hope for Nelson is that more Democrats are unsure who they will vote for and partisans will come home in November," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "With polling numbers this close, the candidates that are most successful getting their voters to the polls are the ones who are going to win. Historically, Florida has had very close statewide elections, and this year is shaping up to be no different."

    Additionally, the poll reveals that respondents show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote "yes" or "no" on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 71 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 21 percent voting "no." Only 8 percent didn't know how they would vote. Regarding race, 82 percent of African-American respondents indicated they would vote "yes" on the amendment, while 69 percent of white respondents and 65 percent of Hispanic respondents claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition.

    "These results reflect the status of African-Americans as the population most directly affected by Florida's felon disenfranchisement laws," said Dr. Natasha Christie, chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at UNF. "With such a large majority of likely voters saying they would vote "yes" on Amendment 4, this indicates views on this issue are becoming more progressive overall throughout the state, regardless of race."

    When asked about the most important problem in Florida, education-20 percent-led the way, followed closely by health care and environment with 18 percent.

    "Democrats across the state have been highlighting both health care and the environment, a message that appears to resonate with a lot of voters," Binder noted

    For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age go see the tables below.

    Survey Results

    If the election for Florida governor were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=605
    Andrew Gillum, the Democrat 47%
    Ron DeSantis, the Republican 43%
    Someone Else <1%
    Don't Know 10%

     

    Based on Party
    Answer Options Percentage: Democratic Likely Voters n=234 Percentage: Republican Likely Voters n=253
    Andrew Gillum, the Democrat 85% 11%
    Ron DeSantis, the Republican 6% 81%
    Someone Else 1% -
    Don't Know 9% 8%

     

    If the 2018 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=603
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 45%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 45%
    Someone Else 1%
    Don't Know 9%

     

    Based on Party
    Answer Options Percentage: Democratic Likely Voters n=235 Percentage: Republican Likely Voters n=252
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 77% 12%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 9% 83%
    Someone Else <1% 1%
    Don't Know 13% 4%

     

    Amendment 4 on the statewide ballot for 2018 is called "Voting Rights Restoration for Felons Initiative." This Amendment would restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence, including parole or probation. The amendment wouldn't apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses. If the election were held today, would you vote "yes" or "no" for this proposition?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=617
    Yes 71%
    No 21%
    Don't Know 8%

     

    Based on Party
    Answer Options Percentage: Democratic Likely Voters n=239 Percentage: Republican Likely Voters n=259
    Yes 83% 62%
    No 10% 31%
    Don't Know 7% 8%

     

    Based on Race
    Answer Options Percentage: White Likely Voters n=423 Percentage: Black Likely Voters n=81 Percentage: Hispanic Likely Voters n=83 Percentage: Other Race Likely Voters n=30
    Yes 69% 82% 65% 83%
    No 23% 11% 28% 7%
    Don't Know 9% 7% 7% 10%

     

    What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=618
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 10%
    Education 20%
    Healthcare 18%
    Crime 10%
    Environment 18%
    Immigration 13%
    Terrorism 2%
    Gun Policy 1%
    Race Relations <1%
    Government/Politics 2%
    Something Else 2%
    Don't Know 3%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Percentage: Florida Voters n=654
    Republican 40.8%
    Democrat 39.5%
    NPA and other 19.7%

     

    Age
    Age Percentage: Florida Voters n=654
    18 to 24 8%
    25 to 34 10%
    35 to 44 12%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 20%
    65 and older 35%

     

    Race
    Race Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=654
    White (not Hispanic) 67%
    Black (not Hispanic) 14%
    Hispanic 14%
    Other 5%

     

    Sex
    Sex Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=654
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=654
    Landline 32%
    Cell phone 67%
    Don't Know/Refusal 1%

     

    Education
    Education Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=654
    Less than high school 2%
    High school graduate 23%
    Some college 39%
    College graduate 21%
    Post graduate degree 14%
    Don't Know <1%
    Refusal 1%

     

    What language was this survey completed in?
    Survey language completed in… Percentage: Florida Likely Voters n=654
    English 97%
    Spanish 3%

    Methodology

    The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, September 17 through Wednesday, September 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' August 8, 2018 update.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" or "probably vote" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 654 completed surveys with a total of 616 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.95 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 31 to 68 percent (1 percent were unidentified).A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education.

    Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the August 8, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • February 12, 2018 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The Statewide Florida survey was conducted and sponsored by PORL Monday, Jan. 29, through Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018 by live callers via the telephone.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students and employees in both Spanish and English. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.


    Embargo for February 12, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    Crosstab (PDF) 

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Florida Governor Candidates Lack Name RecognitionRespondents Show High Support for Restoring Felon Voting Rights

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll that reveals an overwhelming lack of name recognition among Democratic candidates and Republican candidates running for Florida governor. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions.

    The poll, comprised of Florida registered voters, asked respondents to give their opinion on Andrew Gillum, Gwen Graham, Phillip Levine, Richard Corcoran, Ron DeSantis and Adam Putnam, all candidates running for Florida governor. Concerning the Democratic candidates, the percentage of respondents who had never heard of them ranges from 73 percent for Levine to 81 percent for Gillum. Graham had the highest favorability of the three Democratic candidates, with 11 percent viewing her favorably and 4 percent unfavorably, while 78 percent had never heard of her.

    The Republican candidates didn't fare any better as 67 percent had never heard of Putnam, 72 percent never heard of DeSantis and 78 percent never heard of Corcoran. Putnam received the highest favorability among Republicans, with 14 percent viewing him favorably and 7 percent unfavorably.

    "It's a little surprising that so few people have heard of the candidates, particularly Adam Putnam who has won two statewide races, and Gwen Graham, who is a former member of Congress and the daughter of former Gov. and Sen. Bob Graham," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "These results highlight both the opportunities for the candidates to shape the voters' perception of them and the challenges they face in getting out their message."

    The poll also shows that respondents show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote yes or no on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 71 percent of registered voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 22 percent who would vote "no."

    "Amendment 4, the voting rights restoration measure, facing voters in the fall is so widely supported, even a majority of Republicans support it. What remains to be seen is whether or not an influx of money opposing this ballot measure will knock off enough support to prevent it from reaching the 60 percent necessary to pass," Binder said.

    When asked whether they support or oppose lifting the bans on offshore oil drilling, 55 percent of registered Florida voters polled either strongly or somewhat oppose, while 37 percent strongly or somewhat support lifting the bans. Regarding DACA, respondents were asked about their views on illegal/undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. A large majority, 82 percent, supported letting them stay in the U.S. to eventually apply for citizenship, while 5 percent stated they could stay but not apply for citizenship. Nine percent claimed they should be required to leave the U.S.

    "Even though DACA and offshore oil drilling will likely get sorted out at the national level, Floridians have strong opinions on these issues-very supportive of a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and opposed to opening up offshore oil drilling-and these opinions could very well influence the upcoming senate and gubernatorial elections," noted Binder.

    Regarding some policies facing Florida's legislature, 59 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat oppose allowing concealed weapons to be carried on university and college campuses, with 35 percent in support. When asked about removing Florida's home rule, 47 percent strongly or somewhat oppose giving the state government additional power over local government decisions, while 30 percent support it either strongly or somewhat. A majority of respondents, 62 percent, strongly or somewhat support legalizing and regulating recreational marijuana, with 35 percent in opposition.

    "This is the third time over the past year we've asked about concealed weapons on college campuses, and the results are remarkably consistent. Voters are opposed to changing the current restrictions, and it will be interesting to see if the legislature listens to their electorate," Binder said. "There is also opposition, though not nearly as strong, in scaling back Florida's home rule, something legislators may want to pay attention to before acting to fundamentally alter governance in Florida."

    When asked about the most important problem facing Florida today, the most popular response was education at 20 percent, followed closely by health care, 16 percent, and crime, 15 percent. Out of all respondents, 52 percent either strongly or somewhat approve of the way that the Florida legislature is handling its job, with 33 percent disapproving either strongly or somewhat.

    Survey Results

    We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person, or if you've never heard of them.

     

    Democratic Candidates
    Answer Options Andrew Gillum n=619 Gwen Graham n=619 Phillip Levine n=619
    Favorable 7% 11% 8%
    Unfavorable 4% 4% 5%
    Never heard of him/her 81% 78% 73%
    Don't Know 8% 6% 12%
    Refusal 1% 1% 1%

     

    Democratic Candidates Only Among Democratic Respondents
    Answer Options Andrew Gillum n=232 Gwen Graham n=232 Phillip Levine n=232
    Favorable 10% 15% 14%
    Unfavorable 4% 3% 6%
    Never heard of him/her 78% 75% 65%
    Don't Know 8% 7% 15%
    Refusal 1% <1% <1%

     

    Republican Candidates
    Answer Options Richard Corcoran n=619 Ron Desantis n=619 Adam Putnam n=619
    Favorable 5% 10% 14%
    Unfavorable 6% 5% 7%
    Never heard of him/her 78% 72% 67%
    Don't Know 11% 12% 11%
    Refusal <1% 1% 1%

     

    Republicans Candidates Only Among Republican Respondents
    Answer Options Richard Corcoran n=218 Ron Desantis n=218 Adam Putnam n=218
    Favorable 6% 14% 22%
    Unfavorable 5% 3% 2%
    Never heard of him/her 78% 71% 66%
    Don't Know 10% 11% 10%
    Refusal 1% 1% 1%

     

    Amendment Four, on the statewide ballot for 2018, is called "Voting Rights Restoration for Felons Initiative." This Amendment would restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions after they complete all terms of their sentence including parole or probation. The amendment would not apply to those convicted of murder or sexual offenses. If the election were held today, would you vote "yes" or "no" for this proposition?
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    Yes 71%
    No 22%
    Don't Know 6%
    Refusal <1%

     

    Lifting bans on offshore oil drilling and allowing new offshore oil and gas drilling in the United States coastal waters.
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    Strongly Support 18%
    Somewhat Support 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 14%
    Strongly Oppose 41%
    Don't Know 7%
    Refusal 1%

     

    Which comes closest to your view about undocumented/Illegal immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children, aged 16 and under?*
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    They should be allowed to stay in the United States and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship 82%
    They should be allowed to remain in the United States, but not be allowed to apply for U.S. citizenship 5%
    They should be required to leave the U.S. 9%
    Don't Know 3%
    Refusal 1%

    *This question was a split sample with half the sample being read "illegal" and half the sample being read "undocumented". There was only one percentage point difference between the two different question wordings.

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to carry concealed handguns into a college or university facility.
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=611
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=969
    Strongly Support 20% 21% 20%
    Somewhat Support 15% 16% 15%
    Somewhat Oppose 11% 13% 14%
    Strongly Oppose 48% 46% 48%
    Don't Know 5% 4% 3%
    Refusal <1% 3% -

     

    Removal of Florida's home rule, which grants additional power to the state government over local government decisions?
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    Strongly Support 11%
    Somewhat Support 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 21%
    Strongly Oppose 26%
    Don't Know 21%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Legalizing and regulating marijuana in a manner similar to alcohol, limiting its sale to residents 21 years of age or older.
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    Strongly Support 45%
    Somewhat Support 17%
    Somewhat Oppose 8%
    Strongly Oppose 27%
    Don't Know 3%
    Refusal <1%

     

    What do you think is the most important problem facing Florida today?*
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=972
    Education 20% 20%
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 13% 20%
    Healthcare 16% 15%
    Crime 15% 13%
    Environment 10% 11%
    Immigration 14% 10%
    Terrorism 2% 2%
    All of the Above (volunteered) 3% -
    Drugs/Opioids (volunteered) 1% -
    Other (volunteered) 4% 7%
    Don't Know 2% 3%
    Refusal <1% -

     

    Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the Florida Legislature is handling its job?
    Answer Options
    February 2018
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=619
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=959
    Strongly Approve 9% 7%
    Somewhat Approve 43% 32%
    Somewhat Disapprove 18% 21%
    Strongly Disapprove 15% 19%
    Don't Know 13% 21%
    Refusal 2% -

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Republican 35%
    Democrat 37%
    NPA and other 27%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Registered Voters n=619
    18 to 24 9%
    25 to 34 15%
    35 to 44 14%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 28%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Registered Voters n=619
    White (not Hispanic) 64%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 16%
    Other 7%

     

    Sex
    Sex Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Male 46%
    Female 54%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Landline 27%
    Cell phone 73%
    Don't Know <1%
    Refusal <1%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Less than high school 3%
    High school graduate 20%
    Some college 41%
    College graduate 21%
    Post graduate degree 14%
    Don't Know <1%
    Refusal 1%

     

    What is your annual household income?
    Income Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Less than $25,000 14%
    $25,000 to $50,000 16%
    $50,000 to $75,000 17%
    $75,000 to $100,000 12%
    Above $100,000 22%
    Don't Know 7%

     

    What language was this survey completed in?
    Survey language completed in… Florida Registered Voters n=619
    English 97%
    Spanish 3%

    Methodology

    The University of North Florida (UNF), Florida Statewide Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at UNF Monday, January 29, through Sunday, February 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 12 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday and 11 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Sunday.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Florida registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone.

    To ensure a representative sample being collected, the state was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • February 7, 2018 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from  Monday, Jan. 29, through Sunday, Feb. 4, by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.


    Press Release for February 7, 2018

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    Crosstab (PDF) 

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Sen. Bill Nelson Leading Gov. Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election President Donald Trump's Job Approval Rating Low But Improving

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll that reveals Sen. Bill Nelson in the lead for the upcoming Senate election, with Gov. Rick Scott trailing close behind. The survey also shows that President Trump's job approval rating has risen some since last fall.

    The poll, comprised of Florida registered voters, shows that of likely voters in 2018, 48 percent plan to vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate, while 42 percent plan to vote for Scott, the Republican. Of those likely voters, 7 percent don't know who their choice will be.

    Regarding the U.S. House of Representatives, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 42 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate, 40 percent would plan to vote for the Republican candidate and 14 percent didn't know.

    "Even though it appears Nelson has a reasonable lead in the poll, the election results will ultimately get determined by who shows up in November," said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "Historically, Republicans have enjoyed a turnout advantage in midterms, but with the current mood of the country, and a large number of Republican retirements, Democrats are optimistic about an impending blue wave."

    Of registered voters who were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way Nelson is handling his job as senator, 52 percent of registered voters claim to somewhat or strongly approve, with only 20 percent somewhat or strongly disapproving. Notably, 26 percent of voters expressed they don't know how Nelson is handling his job. When asked about the way Scott is handling his job as Florida governor, 63 percent reported to strongly or somewhat approve, with 31 percent disapproving either somewhat or strongly.

    "Both senate candidates have net positive job approval ratings of 32 percentage points," said Binder. "This high level of job approval is very unusual and is going to lead to a hotly contested election."

    When asked about how Sen. Marco Rubio is handling his job, 55 percent strongly or somewhat approve, compared to the 35 percent who reported to somewhat or strongly disapprove.

    When asked about President Donald Trump's job approval rating, 43 percent of the overall sample strongly or somewhat approve of how he's handling his job, with 53 percent disapproving somewhat or strongly. A large amount of registered Democrats-87 percent-disapprove of Trump, while only 16 percent of registered Republicans disapprove. On the contrary, Trump held 81 percent job approval among registered Republicans, compared to 40 percent approval among nonpartisans and a dismal 10 percent job approval among registered Democrats.

    "Most presidents would consider 43 percent approval and net negative 10 percentage points a troubling number, but Trump's approval is up 6 percentage points from his approval level in October, and his net negatives have improved by 12 percentage points," noted Binder.

    In light of the recent investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, when asked about the way Robert Mueller is handling his job as Special Counsel for the United States Department of Justice, 40 percent of registered voters somewhat or strongly approve, 28 percent of voters somewhat or strongly disapprove and 29 percent of voters don't know how he's handling his job.

    "Even though Mueller is acting in a legal capacity, and has a 12-percentage point net positive job approval, there are partisan divisions as Democrats are much more supportive than Republicans in their views on Mueller," said Binder.

    Survey Results

    If the 2018 election for U.S. senator from Florida were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Likely Voters n=429** October 2017 Florida Likely Voters n=706* February 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=957
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 48% 37% 44%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 42% 36% 38%
    Someone else 2% 7% 3%
    don't know 7% 20% 12%
    Refusal - - -

    *Respondents that indicated that they would vote in the upcoming senatorial election

    ** Respondents that indicated active voting and/or enthusiasm for the upcoming midterm election

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 86% 14% 42%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 7% 79% 42%
    Someone else 2% 1% 6%
    don't know 5% 7% 10%
    Refusal - - -

     

    If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for (the Democratic candidate) or (the Republican candidate) in your congressional district?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Likely Voters n=429**
    The Democratic candidate 42%
    The Republican candidate 40%
    Other 5%
    don't know 13%
    Refusal -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    The Democratic candidate 82% 6% 35%
    The Republican candidate 6% 82% 26%
    Other 2% 2% 13%
    don't know 10% 10% 26%
    Refusal - - -

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States senator?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619 October 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=834 February 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=945
    Strongly Approve 19% 12% 13%
    Somewhat Approve 33% 23% 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 8% 9% 16%
    Strongly Disapprove 12% 6% 12%
    don't know 26% 49% 29%
    Refusal 2% 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 28% 12% 14%
    Somewhat Approve 41% 22% 38%
    Somewhat Disapprove 5% 14% 3%
    Strongly Disapprove 7% 22% 8%
    don't know 19% 28% 35%
    Refusal - 2% 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Rick Scott is handling his job as governor of Florida?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619 October 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=834 February 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=957
    Strongly Approve 29% 26% 17%
    Somewhat Approve 34% 33% 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 14% 15% 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 17% 13% 26%
    don't know 5% 11% 14%
    Refusal 1% 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 12% 51% 25%
    Somewhat Approve 30% 31% 41%
    Somewhat Disapprove 19% 8% 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 32% 3% 14%
    don't know 6% 6% 5%
    Refusal - 1% 1%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619 October 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=834 February 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=956
    Strongly Approve 17% 13% 15%
    Somewhat Approve 38% 29% 25%
    Somewhat Disapprove 14% 18% 17%
    Strongly Disapprove 22% 19% 31%
    don't know 9% 20% 12%
    Refusal 1% 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 7% 31% 13%
    Somewhat Approve 29% 41% 46%
    Somewhat Disapprove 21% 11% 9%
    Strongly Disapprove 36% 9% 18%
    don't know 8% 7% 12%
    Refusal - 2% 1%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president of the United States?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619 October 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=834 February 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=957
    Strongly Approve 30% 19% 28%
    Somewhat Approve 13% 18% 16%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9% 9% 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 44% 50% 44%
    Don't Know 2% 2% 4%
    Refusal 2% 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 4% 64% 22%
    Somewhat Approve 6% 17% 18%
    Somewhat Disapprove 11% 4% 13%
    Strongly Disapprove 76% 12% 44%
    Don't Know 2% 2% 1%
    Refusal 1% 1% 3%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Robert Mueller is handling his job as Special Counsel for the United States Department of justice?
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Strongly Approve 19%
    Somewhat Approve 21%
    Somewhat Disapprove 11%
    Strongly Disapprove 17%
    Don't Know 29%
    Refusal 3%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 33% 7% 13%
    Somewhat Approve 22% 21% 21%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9% 16% 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 11% 25% 16%
    Don't Know 24% 28% 39%
    Refusal 1% 3% 4%

     

    How often do you vote in non-presidential elections? Rate your involvement on a scale of one to five, where one is never and five is always.
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619
    One (never) 17%
    Two 9%
    Three 17%
    Four 14%
    Five (always) 43%
    Don't Know 1%
    Refusal <1%

     

    Thinking about the upcoming Florida midterm election in November, overall, would you say you are:
    Answer Options February 2018 Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Not at all enthusiastic 27%
    Somewhat enthusiastic 44%
    Very enthusiastic 25%
    Don't Know 3%
    Refusal 1%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Republican 35%
    Democrat 38%
    NPA and other 27%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Registered Voters n=619
    18 to 24 9%
    25 to 34 15%
    35 to 44 14%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 28%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Registered Voters n=619
    White (not Hispanic) 64%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 16%
    Other 7%

     

    Sex
    Sex Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Male 46%
    Female 54%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Landline 14%
    Cell phone 85%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal 1%

     

    Education
    Education Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Less than high school 3%
    High school graduate 14%
    Some college 51%
    College graduate 19%
    Post graduate degree 13%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Income
    Income Florida Registered Voters n=619
    Less than $25,000 11%
    $25,000 to $50,000 21%
    $50,000 to $75,000 21%
    $75,000 to $100,000 13%
    Above $100,000 21%
    Don't Know 5%
    Refusal 9%

     

    Language
    Survey language completed in… Florida Registered Voters n=619
    English 98%
    Spanish 2%

    Methodology

    The University of North Florida (UNF), Florida Statewide Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at UNF Monday, January 29, through Sunday, February 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 12 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday and 11 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Sunday.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Florida registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

    To determine likely voters, respondents were asked two questions related to the upcoming midterm elections. First, they were asked on a scale of one (never) to five (always), how often do they vote in non-presidential elections. Second, respondents were asked about their enthusiasm for the upcoming election (not at all, somewhat or very enthusiastic). Respondents who answered four or five for the frequency of voting question, or answered a three to the frequency of voting question and also answered somewhat or very enthused about the upcoming midterm elections were included as likely voters.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.The margin of error for likely voters in the November 2018 midterm election is +/- 4.7 percentage points. This study had a 13.8% response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone.

    To ensure a representative sample being collected, the state was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • October 24, 2017 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide survey was conducted and sponsored by PORL Wednesday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct.17, 2017 by live callers via the telephone. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. daily. by UNF undergraduate students and employees in English and Spanish. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 838 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.39 percentage points with a response rate of 16 percent (response rate 4 was used form the American Association of Public Opinion Research, AAPOR).

    Crosstabs

    October 24, 2017


    October 24, 2017

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    New UNF Poll Finds Razor Thin Lead for Nelson in Upcoming Senatorial Election

    A new poll of registered voters in Florida shows those that indicated they will vote in 2018, 37 percent say they plan to vote for Sen. Bill Nelson, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate, while 36 percent plan to vote for Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican and 20 percent don't know who their choice will be.

    Registered Democrats in the sample intended to vote for Nelson at 66 percent, while 68 percent of registered Republicans plan to vote for Scott. Interestingly, nonparty affiliates and other partisans are leaning toward Nelson at 32 percent, compared to the 28 percent that plan to vote for Scott.

    When asked about Scott's job approval, 59 percent strongly or somewhat approve of his job as governor, with 82 percent of registered Republicans approving of Scott and 40 percent of registered Democrats approving. Nelson, however, has a 35 percent overall job approval rate and only 15 percent disapprove. Surprisingly, 49 percent don't know how he's handling his job as senator.

    "Like most statewide races in Florida, the senate race between Nelson and Scott is going to be too close to call all the way until Election Day," said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "The one major concern for Democrats has to be the public's lack of awareness of Nelson. When a three-term sitting U.S. senator has almost half of the sample unable to assess his job approval, you have a problem."

    When asked about President Donald Trump's job approval rating, 59 percent of the overall sample strongly or somewhat disapprove of how he's handling his job, with only 37 percent approving. A vast amount of registered Democrats-91 percent-disapprove of Trump, while only 23 percent of registered Republicans disapprove. On the flip side, there is 72 percent job approval for Trump among registered Republicans, compared to only 33 percent for nonparty affiliates and other party registrants and a measly 6 percent job approval among registered Democrats.

    "Donald Trump is just as divisive in Florida as he is across the rest of the country, but as long as he maintains support from Republicans, I wouldn't expect any major changes in his administration," Binder noted.

    Another issue sharply divided by partisanship is what to do about Confederate statues. Overall, 40 percent of respondents believe they should remain in place, while 47 percent believe they should be moved to museums and another 9 percent believe they should be removed entirely. However, 66 percent of registered Republicans believe they should stay, while 76 percent of registered Democrats believe they should be moved to museums or removed completely.

    "As Tallahassee contends with newly introduced House Bill 235 dealing with Confederate statues, Floridians should take note of the partisan divisions on this issue," said Binder. "Republicans dominate the legislature, and the Republican voters don't want the statues moved; this presents a real dilemma for legislators facing public pressure to do something about this issue."

    Regarding income taxes, a large majority of registered voters in Florida-67 percent-prefer a progressive tax rate to a flat-tax rate. Only 29 percent prefer a flat federal income rate. When asked about the role of government and the private sector providing insurance, 41 percent thought that the government should insure most people or everyone. Only 24 percent believe private insurance should insure most or everyone.

    "In the wake of Bernie Sanders' presidential run and the struggles with Obamacare, there appears to be support for government to take on a larger role in providing health insurance to Floridians," Binder commented.

    The poll also shows very few Floridians want to reduce legal immigration, as 30 percent of registered voters want to see legal immigration increased and 42 percent want to keep immigration at present levels. "For all of the debate about illegal immigration and undocumented immigrants, Florida is very supportive of legal immigration," Binder said.

    See our crosstabs by partisanship, sex, age, race, and education.

    Survey Results

    If the 2018 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters n=706*
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=957
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 37% 44%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 36% 38%
    Someone else 7% 3%
    Don't Know 20% 12%
    Refusal - -

    *Only respondents that indicated that they would vote in the upcoming senatorial election were included

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 66% 10% 32%
    Rick Scott, the Republican 12% 68% 28%
    Someone else 7% 5% 9%
    Don't Know 15% 17% 31%
    Refusal - - -

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?
    Answer Options October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters n=834
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=957
    Strongly Approve 19% 28%
    Somewhat Approve 18% 16%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9% 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 50% 44%
    Don’t Know 2% 4%
    Refusal 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 1% 43% 13%
    Somewhat Approve 5% 30% 20%
    Somewhat Disapprove 8% 12% 12%
    Strongly Disapprove 84% 14% 51%
    Don't Know 1% 4% 3%
    Refusal 1% 1% 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Rick Scott is handling his job as Governor of Florida?
    Answer Options October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters n=834
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=957
    Strongly Approve 26% 17%
    Somewhat Approve 33% 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 15% 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 13% 26%
    Don't Know 11% 14%
    Refusal 1% -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 13% 49% 15%
    Somewhat Approve 27% 33% 41%
    Somewhat Disapprove 25% 6% 15%
    Strongly Disapprove 24% 3% 13%
    Don't Know 10% 9% 15%
    Refusal 1% 1% 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters n=834
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=945
    Strongly Approve 12% 13%
    Somewhat Approve 23% 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9% 16%
    Strongly Disapprove 6% 12%
    Don't Know 49% 29%
    Refusal 1% -

     

    By party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Strongly Approve 21% 5% 7%
    Somewhat Approve 26% 21% 22%
    Somewhat Disapprove 7% 12% 9%
    Strongly Disapprove 3% 11% 3%
    Don't Know 43% 49% 58%
    Refusal 1% 1% 1%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options October 2017
    Florida Registered Voters n=834
    February 2017
    Florida Registered Voters
    n=956
    Strongly Approve 13% 15%
    Somewhat Approve 29% 25%
    Somewhat Disapprove 18% 17%
    Strongly Disapprove 19% 31%
    Don't Know 20% 12%
    Refusal 1% -

     

    There is much concern about the rapid rise in medical and hospital costs. Some people feel there should be a government insurance plan which would cover all medical and hospital expenses for everyone. Others feel that all medical expenses should be paid by individuals through private insurance plans like Blue Cross or other company paid plans. Which statement comes closest to YOUR position on this issue?
    Answer Options Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Government should insure everyone. 28%
    Government should insure most people. 13%
    Government and private insurance should have about equal roles. 31%
    Private insurance should insure most people. 13%
    Private insurance should insure everyone. 11%
    Don't Know 2%
    Refusal 1%

     

    In your opinion, should LEGAL immigration into the United States be kept at its present level, increased, or decreased?
    Answer Options Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Present level 42%
    Increased 30%
    Decreased 20%
    Don't Know 7%
    Refusal <1%

     

    Do you think that statues honoring leaders of the Confederacy should…?
    Answer Options Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Remain in public places as reminders of Southern heritage 40%
    Be moved to museums where they can be viewed in historical context 47%
    Be removed completely because they are symbol of slavery 9%
    Don't Know 3%
    Refusal 1%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats Republicans NPA/Others
    Remain in public places 20% 67% 34%
    Be moved to museums 60% 28% 54%
    Be removed completely 16% 3% 8%
    Don't Know 4% 2% 4%
    Refusal <1% 1% 1%

     

    Now, I have a question about income taxes. Some people think that everyone should have the same tax rate, regardless of income, while others think that those with higher income should pay a higher tax rate. If you had a choice, which of these two options would you prefer?
    Answer Options Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Progressive tax^ 67%
    Flat tax* 29%
    Don't Know 2%
    Refusal 1%

    ^The poor would pay a very low percentage of their income in federal taxes, the middle class would pay a little higher percentage, and the rich would pay an even higher percentage.

    *Everybody, regardless of income, would pay about the same percentage of their income in federal taxes.

    Survey Demographics

    Party Registration
    Party Registration Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Republican 35%
    Democrat 38%
    NPA and other 27%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Registered Voters n=834
    18 to 24 9%
    25 to 34 15%
    35 to 44 14%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 28%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Registered Voters n=834
    White (not Hispanic) 64%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 16%
    Other 7%

     

    Gender
    Gender Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Male 46%
    Female 54%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Landline 14%
    Cell phone 85%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal 1%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Less than high school 3%
    High school graduate 14%
    Some college 51%
    College graduate 19%
    Post graduate degree 13%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    What is your annual household income?
    Income Florida Registered Voters n=834
    Less than $25,000 11%
    $25,000 to $50,000 21%
    $50,000 to $75,000 21%
    $75,000 to $100,000 13%
    Above $100,000 21%
    Don't Know 5%
    Refusal 9%

     

    What language was this survey completed in?
    Language Florida Registered Voters n=834
    English 98%
    Spanish 2%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

     

  • October 17, 2017 - Florida Statewide Poll

    The UNF Florida Omnibus Fall Survey  was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Thursday, October 5, through  Wednesday, October 11, 2017 live callers via the telephone, from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.96 percentage points. 

    Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race

    October 17, 2017 - Crosstabs


    October 17, 2017

    Media Contact: Amanda Dawson, Specialist

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2192

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    New UNF Poll Finds Florida Voters Oppose Prohibiting the Sale of Assault Weapons

    JACKSONVILLE, Fla - A new poll of registered voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida finds that of registered voters in the state of Florida, 52 percent oppose prohibiting the sale of assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines, with 42 percent in support of the prohibition. Registered Republicans in Florida have 55 percent opposition, and even a little under half of registered Democrats oppose prohibiting assault weapon sales at 47 percent. These results are similar to the numbers from a PORL poll conducted earlier this spring.

    "Even in the wake of the Las Vegas shootings, Floridians are not supportive of restricting access to assault weapons," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory faculty director. "With all of the political polarization in America about guns, I'm actually a little surprised that more Democrats are not supportive of more restrictions."

    When asked about allowing licensed individuals to openly carry, 54 percent oppose and only 40 percent support. Support is down from this spring, when 44 percent supported the open carry of handguns. The parties are more divided on open carry as 69 percent of registered Democrats are opposed, but registered Republicans in the sample support open carry legislation at 57 percent. In regards to the concealed carry of handguns on college campuses, opposition is high at 59 percent, with 37 percent in support. Overall opposition has decreased slightly since the spring results, in which 64 percent opposed and 35 percent supported concealed carry at colleges and universities. Large portions of registered Democrats (78 percent) oppose this policy, while a slight majority (54 percent) of registered Republicans support concealed carry at colleges and universities.

    "Even though registered voters are opposed to open carry and campus carry here in Florida, Republicans remain supportive of these issues, which could influence policy in Tallahassee during the upcoming legislative session," Binder said.

    View the crosstabs by partisanship, sex, age, race and education.

    Methodology

    The Florida Omnibus Fall Survey was conducted by live callers at the UNF PORL, via the telephone, from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily, October 5, through October 11.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections' September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among registered voters in the state of Florida in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 611 had enough demographic data needed for weighting.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.96 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 71 percent, with 1 percent refusal. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

     

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    In the next couple months, Florida's Legislative session will begin. Please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy changes in Florida:

     

    Prohibiting the sale of assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines
    Answer Options Percentage: Fall 2017 Florida
    Registered Voters n=611
    Percentage: Spring 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=965
    Strongly Support 33% 34%
    Somewhat Support 9% 12%
    Somewhat Oppose 13% 14%
    Strongly Oppose 39% 36%
    Don’t Know 3% 4%
    Refusal 2% -

     

    Prohibiting the sale of assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines (Political Party)
    Answer Options Percentage: Democrats Percentage: Republicans Percentage: NPA/Others
    Strongly Support 42% 27% 29%
    Somewhat Support 7% 11% 9%
    Somewhat Oppose 9% 15% 18%
    Strongly Oppose 38% 40% 39%
    Don’t Know 2% 5% 3%
    Refusal 3% 2% 2%

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to OPENLY carry a handgun in Florida except in police stations, prisons, courthouses, schools, athletic events, and establishments that dispense alcohol
    Answer Options Percentage: Fall 2017 Florida
    Registered Voters n=611
    Percentage: Spring 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=970
    Strongly Support 21% 23%
    Somewhat Support 19% 21%
    Somewhat Oppose 15% 14%
    Strongly Oppose 39% 39%
    Don’t Know 3% 2%
    Refusal 3% -

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to OPENLY carry a handgun in Florida except in police stations, prisons, courthouses, schools, athletic events, and establishments that dispense alcohol (Political Party)
    Answer Options Percentage: Democrats Percentage: Republicans Percentage: NPA/Others
    Strongly Support 10% 33% 22%
    Somewhat Support 15% 24% 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 17% 13% 15%
    Strongly Oppose 52% 26% 41%
    Don’t Know 4% 2% 2%
    Refusal 3% 3% 1%

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to carry concealed handguns into a college or university facility
    Answer Options Percentage: Fall 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=611 Percentage: Spring 2017 Florida Registered Voters n=969
    Strongly Support 21% 20%
    Somewhat Support 16% 15%
    Somewhat Oppose 13% 14%
    Strongly Oppose 46% 48%
    Don’t Know 2% 3%
    Refusal 3% -

     

    Allowing licensed individuals to carry concealed handguns into a college or university facility (Political Party)
    Answer Options Percentage: Democrats Percentage: Republicans Percentage: NPA/Others
    Strongly Support 5% 37% 23%
    Somewhat Support 12% 17% 19%
    Somewhat Oppose 11% 16% 11%
    Strongly Oppose 67% 28% 41%
    Don’t Know 2% 1% 2%
    Refusal 4% 2% 4%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    Republican 35%
    Democrat 38%
    NPA and other 27%

     

    Age
    Age Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    18 to 24 9%
    25 to 34 15%
    35 to 44 14%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 28%

     

    Education
    Education Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    Less than high school 2%
    High school graduate 18%
    Some college 48%
    College graduate 19%
    Post graduate degree 13%
    Don’t Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Race
    Race Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    White (not Hispanic) 64%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 16%
    Other 7%

     

    Sex
    Sex* Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    Male 45%
    Female 53%

    *2% of respondents did not have their sex listed in the voter file

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    Landline 27%
    Cell phone 72%
    Don’t Know -
    Refusal 1%

     

    Language
    Survey language completed in… Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=611
    English 95%
    Spanish 5%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked ;university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • March 6, 2017 - Florida Statewide Poll

    New UNF Poll Shows Senator Bill Nelson Leading Governor Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

    Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race

    Florida Statewide Poll


    March 6, 2017

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    New UNF Poll Shows Senator Bill Nelson Leading Governor Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

    A new poll of registered voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that, when asked about the 2018 election, 44 percent of Florida registered voters said they would vote to re-elect Sen. Bill Nelson, while 38 percent said they would vote for Gov. Rick Scott and 12 percent were undecided.

    "Even though it's very early in the 2018 election season, Nelson's six-point lead is meaningful," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory faculty director. "This race is going to get national attention and Rick Scott's alliance with Donald Trump will likely factor into this election's outcome next year."

    Although Donald Trump won the state in the presidential election, the majority of Florida's registered voters-51 percent-disapprove and only 44 percent approve of the way Trump's handling his job as president.

    "Trump's soft job-approval numbers could have huge implications during the midterm races, just ask all the Democrats that lost in 2010 when Obama's numbers were the lowest they had been to that point, and Republicans that ran in 2006, when Bush's popularity was plummeting," noted Binder.

    An even greater percentage of Florida registered voters-65 percent-disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job, while 28 percent approve. When asked about Marco Rubio, 48 percent of Florida registered voters disapprove of the way he's handling his job as U.S. Senator, while 40 percent approve and 12 percent don't know.

    "Even though Rubio was able to win re-election in November, he's continued to have low job-approval numbers," Binder said. "It will be interesting to see how his latest interactions with protestors affects his approval going forward."

    For Bill Nelson, 42 percent of Florida registered voters approve of his job performance as U.S. Senator, 28 percent disapprove and 29 percent don't know.

    "A 42 percent job approval isn't a number an incumbent is usually happy about but with only 28 percent of the electorate disapproving of the job he's doing, Nelson is a net positive 14 points. That difference in approval is greater than Rubio, Trump and his likely re-election opponent, Scott," said Binder.

    The majority-51 percent-of Florida registered voters disapprove, while 46 percent approve of Trump's travel ban executive order, which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority Muslim countries. It also suspends the U.S. refugee program. Following national trends, Florida opposes the Trump immigration ban, but the state is divided, according to Binder.

    For all of the controversy surrounding transgender rights, 62 percent of registered Florida voters don't think using the same bathroom as a transgender individual would make them uneasy. The overwhelming majority-79 percent-don't think transgender individuals are a sexual threat to children and women.

    "Hopefully, findings like these can change the way the debate over the rights of transgender people is presented in the media," said Dr. Curtis Phills, UNF associate professor of psychology. "Too often, which bathroom a transgender person uses is presented as controversial when, in fact, most people aren't concerned."

    For crosstabs by partisanship, gender and race, go to http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/.

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by PORL Monday, Feb. 13, through Sunday, Feb. 26, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of randomization among registered voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by 247 UNF undergraduate students. Overall, there were 973 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of error is +/- 3.14 percentage points with an 18.5% response rate*. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. The total sample was weighted by partisan registration, gender, race and age to match the active registered voters in Florida. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    *Response Rate 3 - AAPOR Response Rate 3 (RR3) includes an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible.

    Survey Results

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=957
    Strongly Approve 28%
    Somewhat Approve 16%
    Somewhat Disapprove 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 44%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that the United States Congress is handling its job?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=966
    Strongly Approve 7%
    Somewhat Approve 21%
    Somewhat Disapprove 19%
    Strongly Disapprove 46%
    Don't Know 7%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=956
    Strongly Approve 15%
    Somewhat Approve 25%
    Somewhat Disapprove 17%
    Strongly Disapprove 31%
    Don't Know 12%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Bill Nelson is handling his job as United States Senator?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=945
    Strongly Approve 13%
    Somewhat Approve 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 16%
    Strongly Disapprove 12%
    Don't Know 29%

     

    If the 2018 election for US Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were … [ROTATE ANSWERS]
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=957
    Bill Nelson, the Democrat 44%
    Rick Scott, the Republic 38%
    Someone Else 3%
    Would not vote 3%
    Don't Know 12%

     

    As you may know, Donald Trump signed an executive order, which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries, and suspends the U.S. refugee program for four months while reducing the total number of refugees the U.S. will accept this year. Overall, do you support or oppose this executive order?
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=960
    Strongly Approve 34%
    Somewhat Approve 12%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9%
    Strongly Disapprove 42%
    Don't Know 2%

    Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:

    The idea of a transgender individual using the same bathroom as me makes me uneasy
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=958
    Strongly Agree 23%
    Somewhat Agree 12%
    Somewhat Disagree 15%
    Strongly Disagree 47%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    Transgender people are a sexual threat to children and women
    Answer Options Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=950
    Strongly Agree 8%
    Somewhat Agree 7%
    Somewhat Disagree 17%
    Strongly Disagree 62%
    Don't Know 7%

    Breakdown

    Race
    Race Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=973
    White (not Hispanic) 65%
    Black (not Hispanic) 14%
    Hispanic 15%
    Other 6%

     

    Gender
    Gender Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=973
    Men 46%
    Women 54%

     

    Party
    Party Registration Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=973
    Republican 36%
    Democrat 38%
    NPA and other 26%

     

    Age
    Age Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=969
    18-24 9%
    25-34 15%
    35-44 14%
    45-55 17%
    56-64 18%
    65 and older 27%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=969
    Landline 27%
    Cell phone 73%

     

    Language
    Survey Completed in… Percentage: Florida Registered Voters n=969
    English 97%
    Spanish 3%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • March 2, 2017 - Florida Statewide Poll

    Poll Shows Somewhat Favorable Governor Job Approval, Gun Bills/Tax Plan Opposition 

    Press Release: March 2, 2017

    Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race 

    Crosstabs

  • October 27, 2016 - Florida Statewide General Election Poll

    The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers via the telephone. UNF undergraduate students completed the interviews in English and Spanish Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Overall, 836 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older completed the survey. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.39 percentage points. 


    October 27, 2016

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Poll Shows Clinton, Rubio and Amendment 2 hold leads in Florida

    Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest-with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton holds the lead.

    She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today.

    "There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 - 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably" said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida."

    In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. "Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy," said Dr. Binder.

    The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote "yes" on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.

    "This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2," Dr. Binder noted.

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

    Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

    The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for…?
    Candidate Florida Likely Voters
    n= 786
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 46%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 44%
    Someone else (VOL) 3%
    Don't Know (VOL) 6%

     

    Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Candidate Florida Likely Voters
    n= 819
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 43%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 39%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2%
    Someone else (VOL) <1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 9%

     

    Q6. If the 2016 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Candidate Likely Florida Voters n= 797
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 43%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 49%
    Someone else <1%
    Don't Know 7%

     

    Q7. As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, "Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non‐medical use, possession or production of marijuana." Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?
    Answer Options Likely Florida Voters n= 803
    Yes 73%
    No 22%
    Don't Know 5%

     

    Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n= 836
    Jobs and Economy 28%
    Education 9%
    Healthcare 9%
    Immigration 6%
    Environment 6%
    Social Security 5%
    Foreign Policy 5%
    Terrorism 13%
    Race Relations 1%
    Everything 5%
    Something Else 11%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    Breakdown by Race
    Race Florida Likely Voters n= 836
    White (not Hispanic) 68%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 14%
    Other 5%

     

    Breakdown by Gender
    Gender Florida Likely Voters n= 836
    Men 45%
    Women 55%

     

    Breakdown of Party
    Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n= 836
    Republican 40%
    Democrat 40%
    NPA and other 20%

     

    Breakdown by Age
    Age Florida Likely Voters n= 836
    18-24 8%
    25-34 12%
    35-44 10%
    45-55 17%
    56-64 19%
    65 and older 33%

     

    Breakdown of Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Likely Voters n= 799
    Landline 32%
    Cell phone 68%

    Crosstabs

    Presidential Vote Choice and Gender
    Candidate Men Women
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 38% 47%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 34%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6% 6%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 2%
    Someone else (VOL) 1% <1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 10%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 819

     

    Presidential Vote Choice and Education
    Candidate College Degree No College Degree
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 44% 42%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 37% 42%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 7% 5%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 2%
    Someone else (VOL) 1% <1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 8%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 781

     

    Presidential Vote Choice and Party Registration
    Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 77% 13% 35%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 9% 71% 38%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 4% 6% 11%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 1% 4%
    Someone else (VOL) <1% <1% 1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9% 10%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 819

     

    Presidential Vote Choice and Race
    Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 35% 81% 48% 34%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 48% 5% 29% 39%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 7% 1% 6% 10%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% - 3% 6%
    Someone else (VOL) 1% - 1% -
    Don't Know (VOL) 7% 14% 13% 11%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 819

     

    Presidential Vote Choice and Age
    Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% 48% 50% 39% 35% 44%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 21% 22% 26% 49% 49% 44%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 13% 13% 10% 4% 5% 3%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 6% 2% 7% 1% 3% <1%
    Someone else (VOL) 2% 2% - - - <1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 11% 12% 7% 8% 9% 9%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 819

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Gender
    Candidate Men Women
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 38% 46%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 55% 44%
    Someone else 2% 1%
    Don't Know 5% 8%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 797

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Education
    Candidate College Degree No College Degree
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 44% 42%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% 49%
    Someone else 1% 2%
    Don't Know 6% 7%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 764

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Party Registration
    Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 75% 10% 44%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 17% 83% 47%
    Someone else 1% 1% 3%
    Don't Know 7% 7% 6%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 797

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Race
    Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 35% 76% 52% 28%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 57% 14% 41% 61%
    Someone else 2% 1% 1% -
    Don't Know 6% 9% 6% 10%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 797

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Age
    Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 47% 44% 53% 39% 42% 40%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 38% 42% 40% 54% 53% 53%
    Someone else 1% 1% 1% - 2% 2%
    Don't Know 14% 12% 6% 6% 3% 5%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 797

     

    Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration
    Answer Options Democrat Republican NPA and others
    Yes 81% 63% 76%
    No 14% 31% 20%
    Don't Know 5% 6% 4%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 803

     

    Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age
    Answer Options 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Yes 84% 82% 76% 75% 75% 62%
    No 7% 13% 18% 20% 21% 32%
    Don't Know 9% 5% 6% 5% 4% 6%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 803

  • October 13, 2016 - Congressional District 13 Race

    October 13, 2016

    Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2192

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13

    Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.

    Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

    Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.

    "This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

    "Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

    Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.

    The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Q1. If the election for Florida's 13th Congressional District were being held today, who would you vote for…
    Candidate Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=590
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 54%
    David Jolly, the Republican 36%
    Someone else 1%
    Don't Know 9%

     

    Party Registration
    Party Registration Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Democrat 41%
    Republican 37%
    NPA and Other 22%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    White (not Hispanic) 82%
    Black (not Hispanic) 10%
    Hispanic 4%
    Other 4%

     

    Gender
    Gender Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Men 44%
    Women 56%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    18-24 5%
    25-34 15%
    35-44 10%
    45-55 16%
    56-64 19%
    65 and older 34%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Landline 28%
    Cell phone 72%

    Crosstabs

    Vote Choice and Party Registration
    Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 86% 22% 48%
    David Jolly, the Republican 7% 70% 33%
    Someone else - <1% 3%
    Don't Know 7% 8% 16%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice and Race
    Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 47% 87% 72% 83%
    David Jolly, the Republican 42% 5% 18% 17%
    Someone else 1% - - -
    Don't Know 10% 8% 9% -

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice by Gender
    Candidate Men Women
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 51% 56%
    David Jolly, the Republican 42% 32%
    Someone else 2% -
    Don't Know 6% 12%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice and Age
    Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 66% 58% 59% 51% 52% 50%
    David Jolly, the Republican 28% 26% 26% 44% 34% 43%
    Someone else - 1% 5% - - -
    Don't Know 6% 15% 9% 4% 14% 7%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

  • October 11, 2016 - Florida Fall Statewide Senate Race & Amend 2

    Press Release for Tuesday, October 11, 2016

    Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2192

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Rubio leads the Senate Race and Overwhelming Support for Constitutional Amendment 2

    Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Marco Rubio leads the Senate race with 47 percent to Patrick Murphy's 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.

    "Rubio is holding a solid seven point lead and appears to be on his way to re-election", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "Rubio is seeing support from men, (52-38) but also has a slim lead among women as well (44-43). Rubio has done a better job of rallying his base (81 percent support among Republicans) than Patrick Murphy (69 percent support among Democrats). The most startling difference in this race is that 21 percent of voters have never heard of Patrick Murphy, while only 2 percent have not heard of Marco Rubio, and that is a big number for a US Senate candidate."

    When asked about Florida Constitutional Amendment 2, which allows the medical use of marijuana, the overwhelming majority of likely Florida voters (77 percent) said they would vote for the amendment, while only 18 percent said they would vote against it.

    "Huge majorities of likely voters support Florida Constitutional Amendment 2," said Binder. "Not only are Democrats wildly supportive, but even Republicans are above the 60 percent threshold required for passage. The strongest support comes from the voters 34 years old and younger, but even likely voters 65 and older are in favor of legalizing medical marijuana."

    Respondents were also asked their viewpoint about marijuana legalization in general and 40 percent said marijuana should be legal for recreational use, 45 percent said marijuana should be legal for medicinal use and 15 percent it should not be legal at all.

    "In 2014, a last minute opposition media campaign was credited with sinking a similar amendment causing it to narrowly fail," according to Binder. "However, it appears that this time around voters are on the verge of legalizing medicinal marijuana in the state of Florida."

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

    Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

    The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Q6. If the 2016 election for US Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Candidate Likely Florida Voters n=667
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 41%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 48%
    Someone else 1%
    Don't Know 10%

     

    Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them
    Candidate Florida Likely Voters n=662
    Patrick Murphy
    Florida Likely Voters n=663
    Marco Rubio
    Favorable 35% 49%
    Unfavorable 29% 43%
    Never heard of him 21% 2%
    Don't Know 15% 7%

     

    Q7. As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, "Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non‐medical use, possession or production of marijuana." Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?
    Answer Options Likely Florida Voters n=668
    For 77%
    Against 18%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    Q23. Which comes closest to your view on the use of marijuana by adults?
    Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n=612
    It should be legal for recreational use 40%
    It should be legal only for medicinal use 45%
    It should not be legal 15%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    White (not Hispanic) 68%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 14%
    Other 5%

     

    Gender
    Gender Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    Men 45%
    Women 55%

     

    Party Registration
    Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    Republican 40%
    Democrat 40%
    NPA and other 20%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    18-24 6%
    25-34 13%
    35-44 9%
    45-55 14%
    56-64 20%
    65 and older 38%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Likely Voters n= 615
    Landline 32%
    Cell phone 68%

    Crosstabs

    Vote Choice by Gender Florida (Likely Voters n= 667)
    Candidate Men Women
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 38% 43%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 52% 44%
    Someone else 2% 1%
    Don't Know 7% 12%

     

    Vote Choice by Education (Florida Likely Voters n= 573)
    Candidate College Degree No College Degree
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 45% 40%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 45% 51%
    Someone else 1% 2%
    Don't Know 10% 8%

     

    Vote Choice and Party Reg (Florida Likely Voters n= 667)
    Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 69% 11% 45%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 18% 81% 41%
    Someone else 1% 1% 2%
    Don't Know 12% 7% 12%

     

    Vote Choice and Race (Florida Likely Voters n= 667)
    Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 35% 72% 43% 30%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 55% 13% 48% 50%
    Someone else 1% - 2% -
    Don't Know 9% 16% 7% 20%

     

    Vote Choice and Age (Florida Likely Voters n= 583)
    Candidate >18-24 >25-34 >35-44 >45-55 >56-65 65 and older
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 44% 55% 40% 47% 38% 39%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 42% 40% 45% 37% 54% 52%
    Someone else 3% - 4% 1% 1% <1%
    Don't Know 11% 5% 10% 15% 7% 9%

     

    Senate Vote Choice and Presidential Vote Choice (Republican Florida Likely Voters n=266)
    Candidate Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
    Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 50% 5%
    Marco Rubio, the Republican 42% 88%

     

    Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration (Florida Likely Voters n= 668)
    Opinion Democrat Republican NPA and others
    For 87% 65% 83%
    Against 10% 28% 16%
    Don't Know 3% 7% 2%

     

    Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age (Florida Likely Voters n= 594)
    Opinion >18-24 >25-34 >35-44 >45-55 >56-65 65 and older
    For 97% 98% 81% 85% 75% 70%
    Against - 6% 15% 13% 22% 24%
    Don't Know 3% 5% 4% 2% 3% 6%
  • October 6, 2016 - Florida Statewide General Election Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday September 27, through Tuesday, October 4, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Surveys were conducted in both English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections on September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Overall, 696 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older completed the survey. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points. 


    Press Release for Thursday, October 6, 2016

    Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2192

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Poll of Likely Voters Shows that Florida Swings Towards Hillary Clinton

    Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump (40 percent), if the election with just those two candidates were held today.

    In a four candidate contest-with Trump, Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton still prevailed with 41 percent, Trump followed with 38 percent, Johnson garnered 6 percent and Stein finished fourth with 3 percent and 10 percent still undecided.

    "Clinton has gotten a bounce after her strong debate performance last week, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out after the second debate on Sunday", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

    "The size of Clinton's lead drops when the additional candidates (Johnson and Stein) are listed in the question," Binder noted. "This suggests that the Clinton campaign should perhaps perceive Johnson as a threat, who is taking more votes from her than Trump."

    According to Binder, while neither candidate has high favorability for the majority of likely voters in Florida, Clinton's net negative 9 percent is better than Trump's net negative 23 percent.

    When asked about their vote choice, 46 percent of those who said they were voting for Trump indicated that it was a vote against Clinton; for those who are voting for Clinton, 43 percent said their vote would be against Trump. "Interestingly, both candidates are almost evenly split when it comes to whether people are voting for or against them, which is unusual in a presidential election," Binder said.

    When asked about immigration policy, the results were somewhat surprising considering the prominence of that issue in this election. "For all of the talk about deportation and 'building walls', majorities of Democrats, NPAs and even Republicans in Florida are supportive of pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants", said Binder.

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

    Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

    The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
    Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 661)
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 40%
    Someone else (VOL) 4%
    Don't Know (VOL) 9%

     

    Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 686)
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 41%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 38%
    Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6%
    Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 3%
    Someone else (VOL) 2%
    Don't Know (VOL) 10%

    If Vote Choice Trump:

    Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Donald Trump or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?
    Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 259)
    FOR Donald Trump 52%
    AGAINST Hillary Clinton 46%
    Don't Know 2%

    If Vote Choice Clinton:

    Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?*
    Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 278)
    FOR Hillary Clinton 53%
    AGAINST Donald Trump 43%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.

     

    Q8. Hillary Clinton
    Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 661
    Favorable 43%
    Unfavorable 54%
    Never Heard of Her <1%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    Q9. Donald Trump
    Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 661
    Favorable 37%
    Unfavorable 60%
    Never Heard of Him <1%
    Don't Know 2%

     

    Q17. Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States?
    Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 623
    Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 10%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 12%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 7%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 49%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 21%
    Don't Know 1%

     

    Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
    Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 690
    Jobs and Economy 27%
    Education 10%
    Healthcare 8%
    Immigration 7%
    Environment 5%
    Social Security 4%
    Foreign Policy 4%
    Terrorism 17%
    Race Relations 1%
    Everything 5%
    Something Else 8%
    Don't Know 3%

     

    Q20. Which of these comes closest to your view on the federal minimum wage?
    Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 626
    Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished. 4%
    Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same. 7%
    The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation. 31%
    The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted for inflation. 36%
    The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour. 19%
    Don't Know 2%

     

    By Race
    Race Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    White (not Hispanic) 68%
    Black (not Hispanic) 13%
    Hispanic 14%
    Other 5%

     

    By Gender
    Gender Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    Men 45%
    Women 55%

     

    By Party
    Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    Republican 40%
    Democrat 40%
    NPA and other 20%

     

    By Age
    Age Florida Likely Voters n= 696
    18-24 6%
    25-34 13%
    35-44 9%
    45-55 14%
    56-64 20%
    65 and older 38%

     

    By Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Likely Voters n= 615
    Landline 32%
    Cell phone 68%

    Crosstabs

    Vote Choice and Gender
    Vote Choice and Gender Men Women
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 40% 53%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 36%
    Someone else (VOL) 6% 2%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 661

     

    Vote Choice and Education
    Vote Choice and Education College Degree No College Degree
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 51% 42%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 36% 48%
    Someone else (VOL) 5% 3%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 7%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 561

     

    Vote Choice and Party Registration
    Vote Choice and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 79% 10% 56%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 10% 77% 29%
    Someone else (VOL) 3% 4% 6%
    Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9% 9%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 661

     

    Vote Choice and Race
    Vote Choice and Race White Black Hispanic Other
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 37% 86% 56% 53%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 51% 1% 28% 41%
    Someone else (VOL) 4% 2% 8% 2%
    Don't Know (VOL) 9% 11% 9% 4%

    Florida Likely Voters n=661

     

    Vote Choice and Age
    Vote Choice and Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 70% 55% 48% 55% 43% 40%
    Donald Trump, the Republican 18% 33% 32% 31% 50% 49%
    Someone else (VOL) 3% 7% 10% 5% 5% <1%
    Don't Know (VOL) 9% 5% 9% 9% 2% 10%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 570

     

    Immigration Policy and Party Registration
    Immigration Policy and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and others
    Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 6% 17% 5%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 4% 21% 9%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 5% 9% 8%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 52% 42% 56%
    Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 34% 10% 20%
    Don't Know <1% 2% 3%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 623

     

    Most Important Problem and Party Registration
    Most Important Problem and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and others
    Jobs and Economy 24% 31% 25%
    Education 13% 4% 15%
    Healthcare 11% 5% 8%
    Immigration 4% 10% 9%
    Environment 8% 1% 5%
    Social Security 4% 5% 2%
    Foreign Policy 4% 6% 3%
    Terrorism 14% 21% 16%
    Something Else 7% 9% 9%
    Race Relations 3% <1% <1%
    Everything 5% 5% 4%
    Don't Know 4% 3% 2%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 690

     

    Federal Minimum Wage and Party Registration
    Answers Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished. 2% 7% 3%
    Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same. 2% 13% 6%
    The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation. 18% 45% 30%
    The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted inflation. 39% 29% 45%
    The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour. 38% 4% 11%
    Don't Know 1% 2% 4%

    Florida Likely Voters n= 626

  • March 9, 2016 - Florida Statewide Republican Primary Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Republican Primary Poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL from Wednesday, March 2 through Monday, March 7, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Republican primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Overall, 752 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida participated in the survey. The margin of sampling error of the total sample is +/- 3.57 percentage points.

    Press Release

  • February 29, 2016 - Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL Monday, February 22 through Saturday, February 27, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Democratic Primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51% percent of recent statewide elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Overall, 685 registered likely Democratic voters participated in the poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.74 percentage points. 

    Press Release

  • October 21, 2015 - Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL from Wednesday, October 14 through Monday, October 19, 2015. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily, with a maximum of five callback attempts. Democratic likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

    Press Release

  • October 19, 2015 - Florida Statewide Republican Primary Poll

    The UNF Florida Statewide Republican Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL Thursday, Oct. 8 through Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily with five callbacks attempted. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Republican likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Overall, 641 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida participated in the poll. The margin of sampling error of the total sample is +/- 3.87 percentage points.

    Press Release

  • October 8, 2014 - Florida Statewide

    The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL September 29 through October 8, 2014 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m. Overall, 471 likely Florida voters participated in this poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.74 percentage points. 

    Press Release

  • October 13, 2013 - Florida Statewide

    The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL September 30 through October 8, 2013 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m. in English and Spanish. Overall, 526 registered Florida voters participated in this poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.27 percentage points.  

    Press Release

  • October 4, 2018 - Florida Congressional District 16

    The Congressional District 16 poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Sunday, September 30, through Tuesday, October 2, 2018. The sample frame was made up of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 16. Overall, there were 551 completed surveys of likely congressional district 16 voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.


    Embargo for October 4, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    UNF Poll Shows Buchanan Ahead of Shapiro in Florida's Congressional District 16 House RaceMajority of Likely Voters in CD 16 Approve of Trump

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan in the lead for the upcoming U.S. House of Representatives race in Florida's Congressional District 16, with David Shapiro close behind. The survey also shows that a majority of likely voters in Florida's CD 16 approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president.

    The poll, comprised of Florida's Congressional District 16 likely voters, shows that 49 percent of respondents plan to vote for Buchanan, the Republican candidate, in the upcoming election for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida's CD 16, while 40 percent plan to vote for the Democratic candidate, David Shapiro.

    Of those likely voters, 11 percent don't know who their choice will be. Eighty-two percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Buchanan, while 8 percent indicate they'll vote for Shapiro. Eleven percent don't know. Among Democrats, 7 percent indicate they plan to vote for Buchanan and 83 percent for Shapiro; 9 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. For non-party affiliations and alternative party candidates, Shapiro holds a 9-percentage point lead.

    "This historically strong Republican district is closer than it should be," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "In 2016, Buchanan won by almost 20 points, so the fact that this race is within shouting distance for Democrats should give Republicans real concerns when it comes to keeping control of the House of Representatives."

    Additionally, 54 percent of likely voters approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, and 45 percent disapprove. Eighty-six percent of Republican likely voters approve of Trump, while 14 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, 12 percent approve of Trump's job performance and 89 percent disapprove.

    When asked about the most important problem in the district, environment (22 percent) led the way, followed closely by health care and immigration with 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Among Republicans, immigration led as the most important problem in the district at 22 percent, followed by environment at 20 percent. Health care was the most important problem among Democrats (27 percent) followed by environment at 24 percent.

    Regarding the recent red tide algae blooms and the environment in general, when asked who they thought would do a better job as congressman on those issues, 40 percent said Buchanan and 37 percent said Shapiro, while 21 percent didn't know. Among Republican likely voters, 67 percent said Buchanan and 11 percent said Shapiro. Twenty-one percent didn't know who would do a better job. Of Democratic likely voters, 7 percent believe Buchanan would do a better job, 76 percent indicated Shapiro and 17 percent didn't know.

    "The red tide is impacting a lot of the Florida coast, perhaps nowhere more than this area," Binder noted. "Voters are concerned; this issue is on their minds and driving their votes."

    Survey Results

    *Due to rounding, some results may total to greater than 100%

     

    If the 2018 election for Florida's 16th Congressional District of the US House of Representatives were being held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Likely Voters n=499
    Vern Buchanan, the Republican 49%
    David Shapiro, the Democrat 40%
    Someone Else 1%
    Don't Know 11%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=165 Republican Likely Voters n=240 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=94
    Vern Buchanan, the Republican 7% 82% 37%
    David Shapiro, the Democrat 83% 8% 46%
    Someone Else 1% - 3%
    Don't Know 9% 11% 14%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump is doing as President?
    Answer Options Likely Voters n=477
    Approve 54%
    Disapprove 46%
    Don't Know/No Opinion -

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=156 Republican Likely Voters n=232 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=90
    Approve 12% 86% 46%
    Disapprove 89% 14% 54%
    Don't Know/No Opinion - - -

     

    What do you think is the most important problem facing your district today? [Choices Rotated]
    Answer Options Likely Voters n=513
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 10%
    Education 15%
    Healthcare 18%
    Immigration 17%
    Environment 22%
    Crime 7%
    Terrorism 1%
    Something Else 6%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=172 Republican Likely Voters n=246 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=96
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 7% 13% 8%
    Education 16% 12% 19%
    Healthcare 27% 11% 20%
    Immigration 10% 22% 18%
    Environment 24% 20% 23%
    Crime 5% 9% 2%
    Terrorism 2% 1% 1%
    Something Else 7% 7% 4%
    Don't Know 2% 5% 5%

     

    In thinking about the recent red tides and the environment in general, which of the two candidates for Congress, Vern Buchanan or David Shapiro, do you think will do a better job as Congressman?
    Answer Options Likely Voters n=503
    Vern Buchanan, the Republican 40%
    David Shapiro, the Democrat 37%
    Someone Else 1%
    Don't Know 21%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=167 Republican Likely Voters n=241 NPA/Other Likely Voters n=96
    Vern Buchanan, the Republican 7% 67% 31%
    David Shapiro, the Democrat 76% 11% 35%
    Someone Else 1% 1% 2%
    Don't Know 17% 21% 31%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Likely Voters n=551
    Republican 47%
    Democrat 33%
    NPA and other 20%

     

    Age
    Age Likely Voters n=551
    18 to 24 6%
    25 to 34 7%
    35 to 44 11%
    45 to 55 14%
    56 to 64 19%
    65 and older 43%

     

    Race
    Race Likely Voters n=551
    White (not Hispanic) 83%
    Black (not Hispanic) 7%
    Hispanic 6%
    Other 4%

     

    Sex
    Sex Likely Voters n=551
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Likely Voters n=551
    Landline 32%
    Cell phone 66%
    Don't Know/Refusal 2%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Likely Voters n=551
    Less than high school 4%
    High school graduate 18%
    Some college 42%
    College graduate 20%
    Post graduate degree 14%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal 2%

    Methodology

    The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Sunday, September 30 through Tuesday, October 2, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Sunday and 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. during the week.Interviews were conducted in English by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' August 8, 2018 update.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida's 16th congressional district. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" or "probably vote" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 551 completed surveys of likely voters in Florida's 16 congressional district, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 66 percent (2 percent were unidentified). A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified by county. Quotas were placed on each of the counties to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the district. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the August 8, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • August 23, 2018 - Florida Congressional District 5

    The UNF Poll of Congressional District 5 was conducted by The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Friday, Aug. 17, through Sunday, Aug. 19, 2018. The sample frame was made up of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 5. Overall, there were 402 completed surveys of likely congressional district 5 Democratic voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points.


    Embargo for August 23, 2018, 5 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Faculty Director

    (904) 620-2784

    UNF Poll Shows Lawson Leading Brown in Congressional District 5 Democratic Primary

    A new poll of likely Democratic voters in Florida's Congressional District 5 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows 48 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would vote for incumbent Al Lawson, while 29 percent said they would vote for former Jacksonville mayor Alvin Brown, when asked about the 2018 congressional primary election. The poll reveals 22 percent were undecided.

    "Early voting is well underway, Election Day is just a few days away and Lawson has a commanding 19-percentage point lead," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and associate professor of political science. "Brown supporters might point to the large number of undecided voters as potential supporters, but late deciders never swing entirely for one candidate."

    Democratic voters across Congressional District 5 have very similar beliefs about the most important problems in the United States-political leadership (approximately 30 percent) and health care (13 percent) top the list. Democratic voters think crime is the most important problem, while only 10 percent of the Western counties think crime is the most important problem.

    "Roughly half of Congressional District 5 voters are in Duval County, and even though Brown is ahead by 18 percentage points in Duval, that isn't nearly enough. Lawson is ahead by nearly 60 percentage points in the counties west of Duval," said Binder, noting that the relationship between support for Brown and Lawson and a respondent's support for governor could influence the gubernatorial primary.

    Andrew Gillum, current Tallahassee mayor, has plurality support among both Lawson and Brown voters, Binder says. He believes high turnout in this area could propel Gillum to victory on August 28.

    For crosstabs by gender, race and education, go to http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

    Methodology

    The UNF Poll of Congressional District 5 was conducted and sponsored by PORL at the University of North Florida, from Friday, Aug. 17, through Sunday, Aug. 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 4 to 9 p.m. daily.Interviews were conducted in English only by UNF students. The phone numbers used for this survey came from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' June 13, 2018, update.

    The sample frame was comprised of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 5. Likely voters were determined by vote history, having voted in either the 2014 or 2016 primary elections, all voters who were 18 and 19 years of age were included as likely since they were ineligible to vote in the previous primary. Likely voters, who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote," "probably vote" or had "already voted" in the upcoming Florida Primary Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 402 completed surveys of likely Congressional District 5 Democratic voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 38 to 60 percent (2 percent were unidentified).A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the district was stratified based on whether the respondent lived in Duval County or outside the area. The total sample was then weighted by age, sex and race (ASR weights) from the total population of likely voters determined by the above criteria. Education weights were determined by computing a high education turnout from the ASR weighted education question and a low education turnout from the 2016 American Community Survey One-Year education data source and establishing a median weight between these two turnout education weights. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Completed Surveys by Geographic Region within Congressional District 5
    Total Sample n=402
    1 - Duval county 195
    2 - All other counties 207

     

    As you may know the Florida Primary Election is being held on August 28th. How likely are you to vote in this election…
    Answer Options CD5 Likely Voters n=402
    You will definitely vote 82%
    You will probably vote 8%
    Already voted 10%

     

    In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing the US today? [ROTATE ANSWERS]
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402 Duval County CD 5 Likely Dem Voter n=195 Non Duval County CD 5 Likely Dem Voter n=207
    Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 7% 7% 7%
    Education 9% 9% 10%
    Healthcare 13% 14% 12%
    Immigration 5% 4% 6%
    Environment 3% 2% 5%
    Crime 19% 27% 10%
    Terrorism 2% 1% 3%
    Foreign Policy 2% 1% 3%
    Political Leadership 31% 29% 33%
    Something Else 6% 6% 7%
    Don't Know 3% 1% 5%
    Refused <1% - 1%

     

    If the Democratic Primary election for Florida's 5th Congressional District of the US House of Representatives were being held today, who would or did you vote for? [ROTATE ANSWERS]
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=375 Duval County CD 5 Likely Dem Voter n=181 Non Duval County CD 5 Likely Dem Voter n=194
    Al Lawson 48% 29% 68%
    Alvin Brown 29% 47% 10%
    Someone Else 1% - 2%
    Don't Know 22% 24% 20%

     

    If the Democratic Primary election for Governor of Florida were being held today, who would you vote for? [ROTATE ANSWERS]
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=382 Vote for Lawson n=185 Vote for Brown n=107
    Andrew Gillum 31% 37% 32%
    Gwen Graham 16% 22% 13%
    Jeff Greene 10% 11% 12%
    Chris King 2% 2% 6%
    Phillip Levine 18% 16% 20%
    Someone Else 2% 2% -
    Don't Know 21% 11% 17%

    Survey Demographic

    Are we reaching you today on a landline or cell phone?
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402
    Landline 38%
    Cell Phone 60%
    Refused 2%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402
    Less than High School Degree 3%
    High School Graduate 23%
    Some College 33%
    College Graduate 23%
    Post Graduate 16%
    Refused 2%

     

    Race of respondent from the voter file
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402
    American Indian <1%
    Asian <1%
    Black 67%
    Hispanic 1%
    White 29%
    Other 1%
    Multiracial <1%
    Unknown 1%

     

    Age of respondent from the voter file
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402
    18-24 7%
    25-34 8%
    35-44 11%
    45-54 16%
    55-64 23%
    65 and over 36%

     

    Sex of respondent from the voter file
    Answer Options CD 5 Likely Dem Voters n=402
    Male 37%
    Female 63%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • October 13, 2016 - Florida Congressional District 13

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.


    October 13, 2016

    Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2192

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13

    Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.

    Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

    Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.

    "This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

    "Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."

    Methodology

    The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

    Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.

    The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Q1. If the election for Florida's 13th Congressional District were being held today, who would you vote for…
    Candidate Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=590
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 54%
    David Jolly, the Republican 36%
    Someone else 1%
    Don't Know 9%

     

    Party Registration
    Party Registration Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Democrat 41%
    Republican 37%
    NPA and Other 22%

     

    Race
    Race Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    White (not Hispanic) 82%
    Black (not Hispanic) 10%
    Hispanic 4%
    Other 4%

     

    Gender
    Gender Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Men 44%
    Women 56%

     

    Age
    Age Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    18-24 5%
    25-34 15%
    35-44 10%
    45-55 16%
    56-64 19%
    65 and older 34%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Florida Congressional District 13
    Likely Voters n=611
    Landline 28%
    Cell phone 72%

    Crosstabs

    Vote Choice and Party Registration
    Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 86% 22% 48%
    David Jolly, the Republican 7% 70% 33%
    Someone else - <1% 3%
    Don't Know 7% 8% 16%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice and Race
    Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 47% 87% 72% 83%
    David Jolly, the Republican 42% 5% 18% 17%
    Someone else 1% - - -
    Don't Know 10% 8% 9% -

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice by Gender
    Candidate Men Women
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 51% 56%
    David Jolly, the Republican 42% 32%
    Someone else 2% -
    Don't Know 6% 12%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

     

    Vote Choice and Age
    Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
    Charlie Crist, the Democrat 66% 58% 59% 51% 52% 50%
    David Jolly, the Republican 28% 26% 26% 44% 34% 43%
    Someone else - 1% 5% - - -
    Don't Know 6% 15% 9% 4% 14% 7%

    Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

  • July 6, 2016 - Florida Congressional District 4

    Poll in Florida Congressional District 4 shows John Rutherford with a comfortable lead

    Press Release

  • June 30, 2016 - Florida Congressional District 5

    The Florida Congressional District 5 Poll was conducted Monday June 27, through Tuesday June 28, 2016 by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by each county's board of elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 400 registered Democrat likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in either 4 out of the last five statewide elections (Presidential Preference Primary in 2016, Statewide Primary elections in 2012 and 2014 and General Elections in 2012 and 2014). Voters who voted in at least the 2014 Statewide Primary election or were newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 Presidential Preference Primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would "Definitely Vote" or "Probably Vote" in August's primary election. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.

    Press Release - Florida Congressional District 5

  • August 17, 2022 - JaxSpeaks

    New UNF Poll Shows Waters Narrowly Ahead of Burton for Sheriff

    Press Release

  • February 17, 2022 - JaxSpeaks

    UNF Poll: Polson and Howland in Dead Heat for City Council

    Press Release

  • November 4, 2021 - JaxSpeaks

    New Poll from UNF/The Tributary: Jax Voters Trust Local News Over National

    Press Release

  • May 18, 2021 - JaxSpeaks

    New UNF Poll: Most Duval Voters Opposed to Gas Tax Increase But Approve of Septic Tank Phase-out Plan.

    Press Release

  • December 3, 2020 - JaxSpeaks

    Online survey of Duval County, Fla. registered voters. 

    Press Release

  • October 8, 2020 - JaxSpeaks

    Online survey of Duval County, Fla. likely voters.

    Press Release

  • June 24, 2020 - JaxSpeaks

    UNF Poll Reveals Opposition to the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville

    Press Release
  • March 2, 2020 - St Johns County Primary Poll
  • November 7, 2019 - JaxSpeaks

    The UNF Jacksonville (Jax) Speaks poll was conducted and sponsored by The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Thursday, October 31, through Monday, November 4, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. daily. All surveys were conducted in English. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019 update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters who reside in Jacksonville. Overall, there were 665 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    This press release contains data on opinions concerning the potential sale of JEA, Jacksonville's publicly owned utility company, as well as approval rates for leadership on the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

    Press Release

  • November 6, 2019 - Jax Speaks

    The UNF Jacksonville (Jax) Speaks poll was conducted and sponsored by The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Thursday, October 31, through Monday, November 4, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. daily. All surveys were conducted in English. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019 update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters who reside in Jacksonville. Overall, there were 665 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

    This press release contains data on Jacksonville officials job approval ratings, approval rates of the proposed half-cent sales tax for public schools referendum, and the opinions on the biggest issues facing Jacksonville. 

  • June 21, 2019 - JaxSpeaks Half-Cent Sales Tax Increase for Schools Poll

    The UNF Jax Speaks Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Monday, June 17, through Wednesday, June 19. The survey was administered through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sampling frame was comprised of registered voters who live in Jacksonville, Florida. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the Florida’s Division of Elections June 4, 2019 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, FL registered voters in the Florida voter file. Overall, there were 1,226 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points.

    This poll looks specifically at approval rates over the proposed half-cent sales tax increase to support Duval County public schools.


    Embargo: June 21, 2019, 5 a.m. E.S.T.

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Crosstabs 

    Overwhelming Support for Half-Cent Sales Tax Increase for Schools

    Crime Considered Most Important Issue in Jacksonville for Fifth Year in a Row

    A new poll of registered voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida finds that approximately 75 percent of Duval County registered voters support increasing sales tax by a half-cent to upgrade or replace aging schools. Support is strongest among registered Democrats at 86 percent, although registered Republicans still have a majority support for the sales tax increase at 60 percent.

    Last month the Duval County School Board approved a resolution seeking a special election in November of 2019 to ask voters to support a half-cent sales tax. When asked when the election should be held, 34 percent of the sample preferred the November 5 special election of 2019, while 49 percent indicated the general election on November 3 of 2020, while 17 percent did not desire a referendum at all.

    "No matter how you slice it, Duval voters are very supportive of the half-cent sales tax increase," Dr. Binder, faculty director of the PORL, commented. "Registered voters, general election voters, off cycle election voters, Democrats and Republicans, all are in favor of getting the schools the revenue they need to upgrade their facilities."

    A large majority of registered Duval County voters, 72 percent, opposes selling all or parts of JEA. "While JEA leadership and city hall have been noncommittal about selling, voters are very clear about their preference to keep the largest community owned utility in Florida," said Binder.

    Voters were also asked whether they support or oppose a person 18 years of age or older, charged with possession of marijuana (20 grams or less), be declared a civil infraction and eligible to receive a civil citation as opposed to a misdemeanor with potential jail time. An overwhelming majority, 84 percent, supports such a change.

    "Aside from the use of body cameras by police, marijuana decriminalization has had the most support of any issue that we have polled on since I have been in Jacksonville," Binder noted. "There has been a bill introduced in City Council addressing this issue, and city leadership might want to take note of the voice of the voters."

    For the fifth year in a row, registered voters in Jacksonville view crime as the most important issue, with 45 percent of registered voters. Education follows at 16 percent and downtown redevelopment is third at 13 percent. "Crime is and continues to be the number one issue in Jacksonville, and while steps have been taken, clearly the community is still concerned," added Binder.

    Mayor Lenny Curry's job approval number is at 46 percent, with 37 percent disapproving. Though still positive, his approval has dipped since our last poll. Jacksonville City Council has only 34 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval, also dropping since we last polled on these questions.

    When asked about Mike Williams' job approval rate, 45 percent of Duval County registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of how he is handling his job as Jacksonville's Sheriff. Like the mayor, the sheriff's numbers are down slightly, but still positive. Duval County Superintendent of Schools, Diana Greene, has 40 percent approval and 31 percent disapproval, with 29 percent not knowing.

    For detailed methodology and crosstabs by party registration, sex, age, and race read the tables below.

    Survey Results

    Do you support or oppose a half-cent sales tax increase, if those funds specifically go to upgrade or replace aging schools?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered
    Voters n=1,221
    General Election Voters
    n=812
    Off Cycle Election
    Voters n=597
    Strongly support 49% 47% 52%
    Somewhat support 26% 27% 25%
    Somewhat oppose 9% 10% 9%
    Strongly oppose 17% 17% 14%

     

    Do you support or oppose a half-cent sales tax increase, if those funds specifically go to upgrade or replace aging schools?
    Answer Options Registered Democrats Registered Republicans Registered
    NPA/Others
    Support 86% 61% 76%
    Oppose 14% 29% 24%

     

    Recently, the Duval County School Board voted to approve a resolution seeking a special election to ask voters to support a half-cent sales tax to upgrade or replace aging schools. The Jacksonville City Council will vote June 25 on the timing of the election. Should city council vote for this proposed referendum to be voted on in a special election on November 5, 2019, in the general election on November 3, 2020, or should there be no referendum at all.
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,221
    General Election Voters
    n=813
    Off Cycle Election Voters
    n=599
    Special election on November 5, 2019 34% 33% 36%
    General election on November 3, 2020 49% 49% 49%
    No referendum at all 17% 17% 15%

     

    This past year, officials discussed the possibility of selling JEA (the city’s community owned utility company). In general, do you support or oppose the city selling all or parts of JEA?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,204
    General Election Voters
    n=800
    Off Cycle Election Voters n=593
    Strongly support 12% 10% 9%
    Somewhat support 16% 14% 14%
    Somewhat oppose 23% 23% 21%
    Strongly oppose 49% 53% 56%

     

    Do you support or oppose a person 18 years of age or older, charged with possession of marijuana (20 grams or less), be declared a civil infraction and eligible to receive a civil citation as opposed to a misdemeanor with potential jail time?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,218
    General Election Voters
    n=808
    Off Cycle Election Voters
    n=596
    Strongly support 66% 65% 64%
    Somewhat support 18% 20% 20%
    Somewhat oppose 5% 6% 6%
    Strongly oppose 11% 9% 11%

     

    What do you think is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,225
    Education 16%
    The Economy 5%
    Access to Healthcare 5%
    Crime 45%
    Downtown Redevelopment 13%
    Tax Burden 2%
    Access to Public Transportation 3%
    Improving the Environment 5%
    Infrastructure/Traffic/Growth 1%
    Something Else 5%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Lenny Curry is handling his job as Mayor of Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,222
    Strongly approve 15%
    Somewhat approve 31%
    Somewhat disapprove 19%
    Strongly disapprove 18%
    Don't Know 18%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Jacksonville City Council is handling its job?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,213
    Strongly approve 2%
    Somewhat approve 32%
    Somewhat disapprove 29%
    Strongly disapprove 17%
    Don't Know 20%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Williams is handling his job as Jacksonville’s Sheriff?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,222
    Strongly approve 15%
    Somewhat approve 30%
    Somewhat disapprove 21%
    Strongly disapprove 19%
    Don't Know 16%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Diana Greene is handling her job as the Duval County Superintendent of Schools?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,220
    Strongly approve 10%
    Somewhat approve 30%
    Somewhat disapprove 18%
    Strongly disapprove 13%
    Don't Know 29%

     

    Race
    Race Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,226
    General Election Voters
    n=816
    Off Cycle Elections Voters
    n=600
    White (not Hispanic) 59% 65% 61%
    Black (not Hispanic) 28% 25% 29%
    Hispanic 5% 4% 4%
    Other 8% 7% 7%

     

    Sex
    Sex Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,226
    General Election Voters
    n=816
    Off Cycle Election Voters
    n=600
    Male 45% 45% 47%
    Female 55% 55% 53%

     

    xxx
    Party Registration Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,226
    General Election Voters
    n=816
    Off Cycle Election Voters
    n=600
    Republican 36% 42% 39%
    Democrat 41% 40% 42%
    NPA and other 23% 18% 19%

     

    Age
    Age Duval County Registered Voters
    n=1,226
    General Election Voters
    n=816
    Off Cycle Election Voters
    n=600
    18 to 24 10% 5% 7%
    25 to 34 20% 18% 16%
    35 to 44 17% 18% 16%
    45 to 55 17% 16% 14%
    56 to 64 17% 19% 19%
    65 and older 20% 24% 30%

    Methodology

    The UNF Jax Speaks Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Monday, June 17, through Wednesday, June 19. The survey was administered through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sample frame was comprised of registered voters who live in Jacksonville, Florida. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the Florida's Division of Elections June 4, 2019 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, Fla. registered voters in the Florida voter file. Overall, there were 1,226 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2.8 percentage points. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, and age. Weights were created from the June 6, 2019 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Duval County. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which won't assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted is missing. Individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

    -UNF-

  • May 14, 2019 - Jacksonville Beach Fire Service Referendum Poll

    The UNF Jacksonville Beach Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF from Monday, May 6, through Sunday, May 12, 2019 through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sample frame was comprised of registered voters who reside in Jacksonville Beach. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the January 9 update of the Florida Voter File. Those who had an email address were sent the questionnaire May 6 at 3:46 p.m. A reminder email was sent to unfinished respondents May 9 at 3:53 p.m., and then May 11 at 10 a.m. Overall, there were 343 completed surveys of registered Jacksonville Beach voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 5.3 percentage points.

    This poll looks specifically at opinions of Jacksonville Beach residents concerning the proposal to consolidate fire services between the beaches and the City of Jacksonville.


    Embargo: May 14, 2019 at 6 a.m. E.S.T.

    May 14, 2019

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Press Release & Crosstabs (PDF) 

    New UNF Poll Shows Jacksonville Beach Voters Calling for Referendum

    Support Outweighs Opposition Regarding Fire Services Contracting to City of Jacksonville

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of registered voters in Jacksonville Beach that indicates majority support for the Jacksonville Beach City Council calling for a referendum about the proposed Fire Service Agreement between the City of Jacksonville and Jacksonville Beach. The survey also shows that support is greater than opposition regarding contracting out its fire services to the City of Jacksonville.

    The poll shows that 61% of respondents believe that the Jacksonville Beach City Council should call for a binding referendum to approve the terms and conditions of the Fire Service Agreement, with 26% saying the City Council shouldn't call for a referendum. Respondents who didn't know or refused to answer regarding the referendum were at 13%. Among Democrats, support for a referendum is at 67%, with Republicans supporting at 58%.

    "There is a lot of uncertainty that revolves around this agreement, especially on how the City of Jacksonville will comply contractually over time," said Andrew Hopkins, assistant director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "Even though there isn't a majority push one way or the other on this issue, there is a majority of Jax Beach residents who would like to see a referendum."

    Similarly, 46% indicate that they support the City of Jacksonville Beach contracting out its fire services to the City of Jacksonville. Forty-one percent oppose contracting out fire services, while 13% don't know/refused to answer. Support is somewhat evenly distributed among Democrats and Republicans, with 43% and 45% supporting, respectively. In terms of familiarity, 39% claim to not be familiar at all with the Fire Service Agreement, with 28% claiming to be slightly familiar, 24% moderately familiar, and 10% extremely familiar.

    "Moving to a referendum may prolong this decision to November or March of next year, which could impact Jax Beach Fire Department negatively; however, the additional time may be just what residents need to become more familiar with this agreement," Hopkins said.

    Crime is believed to be the most important problem facing Jacksonville Beach, according to 21% of respondents, followed by homelessness at 15%. Among Democrats and Republicans, crime is the most important problem at 21% and 20% respectively. Democrats' second most popular choice is the environment at 13%, while Republicans' second choice is still homelessness at 18%. The poll also asked respondents about short-term vacation rentals. Out of all the ordinances that the City of Jacksonville Beach has discussed adding to their regulations regarding short-term vacation rentals, the requirement to comply with all other City regulations, maximum occupancy limitations and off-street parking standards all garnered over 50% support (63%, 58%, and 56% respectively).

    "It's time for the city to begin addressing short-term rentals, and I think it's safe to say that residents want to see increased regulations on these types of properties in Jacksonville Beach," said Hopkins. "Adding some of these proposed ordinances will help protect the health and safety of residents, as well as plan for growth."

    Survey Results

    What is the most important problem facing Jacksonville Beach?
    Answer Options Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Crime 21%
    Environment 6%
    Development/Growth 9%
    Bars/Bar Crowd 1%
    Traffic 7%
    Non-Residents 2%
    Economy 4%
    Overcrowding 3%
    Homelessness 15%
    Fire Department Contract 1%
    Parking 8%
    Other 14%
    Don't Know 1%
    Refusal 7%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats n=119 Republicans n=134
    Crime 21% 20%
    Environment 13% 3%
    Development/Growth 12% 10%
    Bars/Bar Crowd 3% <1%
    Traffic 8% 6%
    Non-Residents 1% 3%
    Economy 6% 3%
    Overcrowding 3% 4%
    Homelessness 10% 18%
    Fire Department Contract 1% -
    Parking 6% 11%
    Other 13% 12%
    Don't Know 1% 1%
    Refusal 3% 8%

     

    Recently, the Jacksonville Beach city council has been discussing the proposed Fire Service Agreement between the City of Jacksonville Beach and the City of Jacksonville. This agreement would contract out the Jacksonville Beach Fire Department to the Jacksonville Fire and Rescue Department for a county-wide, consolidated service provision. How familiar are you with this Fire Service Agreement?
    Answer Options Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Not at all familiar 39%
    Slightly familiar 28%
    Moderately familiar 24%
    Extremely familiar 10%
    Don't Know/Refusal -

     

    Do you support or oppose the City of Jacksonville Beach contracting out its fire services to the City of Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Support 46%
    Oppose 41%
    Don't Know/Refusal 13%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats n=119 Republicans n=134
    Support 43% 45%
    Oppose 42% 43%
    Don't Know/Refusal 14% 12%

     

    Should the Jacksonville Beach City Council call for a binding referendum to approve the terms and conditions of the Fire Service Agreement?
    Answer Options Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Yes 61%
    No 26%
    Don't Know 13%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democrats n=119 Republicans n=134
    Yes 67% 58%
    No 23% 28%
    Don't Know/Refusal 10% 14%

     

    Currently, the City of Jacksonville Beach has no regulation of short-term vacation rentals beyond regulation of nuisance behavior such as noise, parking, garbage and other life-safety issues. From the list below select all of the ordinances that the City of Jacksonville Beach should add to their regulation of short-term vacation rentals.
    Answer Options Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Requirement for registration with the City 40%
    Proof of business tax receipts from County and City 30%
    Proof of certificate of registration with Department of Revenue 29%
    Proof of license from Dept. of Business and Professional Regulation 31%
    Multiple minimum life-safety requirements to meet the standards of the Florida Building Code and Florida Fire Code including: 1. Smoke/CO detectors (including specialized for hearing impaired) 2. Automatic sprinkler system for three stories and more 50%
    Maximum occupancy limitations 58%
    Off-street parking standards 56%
    Solid waste handling requirements 43%
    Requirement to comply with all other City regulations including noise limits, setbacks, stormwater, etc. as it may be applicable 63%
    Initial and ongoing compliance inspections by the Building Official and/or Fire Marshall 40%
    Required language for lease agreements and postings 32%
    Designation of a responsible party available 24/7 50%
    Enforcement by the Code Enforcement Special Magistrate 29%
    Fines and Fees 34%
    No additional regulations 16%

    Survey Demographics

    By Party
    Party Registration Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Democrat 24%
    Republican 51%
    NPA and other 25%

     

    By Age
    Age Jax Beach Residents n=343
    18 to 24 7%
    25 to 34 20%
    35 to 44 17%
    45 to 55 16%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 22%

     

    By Race
    Race Jax Beach Residents n=343
    White (not Hispanic) 89%
    Black (not Hispanic) 3%
    Hispanic 3%
    Other 5%

     

    By Sex
    Sex Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Male 48%
    Female 52%

     

    By Education Type
    Education Jax Beach Residents n=343
    Less than high school -
    High school graduate 5%
    Some college 35%
    College graduate 33%
    Post graduate degree 26%
    Refusal 1%

    Methodology

    The UNF Jacksonville Beach Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF from Monday, May 6, through Sunday, May 12, through email via Qualtrics, an online survey platform. The sample frame was comprised of registered voters who reside in Jacksonville Beach. The email addresses used for this survey were sourced from the January 9 update of the Florida Voter File. Those who had an email address were sent the questionnaire May 6 at 3:46 p.m. A reminder email was sent to unfinished respondents May 9 at 3:53 p.m., and then May 11 at 10 a.m. Overall, there were 343 completed surveys of registered Jacksonville Beach voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 5.3 percentage points. Data was weighted by partisan registration, age, sex, race, and education. Education weights were created based on the 2017 American Community Survey. Partisan registration, age, sex, and race weights were created from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida voter file to match the active voters in Jacksonville Beach. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which won't assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. Individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 16.8 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research Response Rate 3 calculation was used, which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

    -UNF-

  • April 16, 2019 - Tampa Mayoral Election Poll

    The UNF Tampa Mayoral Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Wednesday, April 10, through Friday, April 12, 2019 by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 4 to 9 p.m. Wednesday through Friday. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate students and employees. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Tampa. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any four of the following elections: 2014 Primary Election, 2014 General Election, 2016 Primary Election, 2016 General Election, 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would “definitely vote” in the upcoming 2019 Mayoral Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 704 completed surveys of likely Tampa voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.7 percentage points.


    Embargo: April 16, 2019 - 6 a.m. E.S.T.

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Castor Exceeds Straz in Mayoral Runoff Election Majority Say Access to Public Transportation Most Important Issue Facing Tampa

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals mayoral candidate Jane Castor in the lead for the upcoming mayoral runoff election in Tampa. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents believe access to public transportation is the most important issue facing Tampa today.

    The poll, comprised of likely Tampa voters, shows that 64% of respondents plan to vote for Castor, 28% plan to vote for Straz and 9% are still undecided. Among Democrats, 68% indicate they plan to vote for Castor, 23% for Straz and 9% don't know for whom they'll cast their vote. Of Republican likely voters, 59% indicate that they will vote for Castor while 33% indicate they'll vote for Straz and 8% don't know.

    "Castor almost got to 50% in the March election, it appears as though she will easily garner a majority of the votes next week," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

    An overwhelming majority of respondents, 78%, believe Tampa is on the right track, while 13% say it's headed in the wrong direction and 9% don't know. Additionally, the poll shows that 27% of likely voters in Tampa believe access to public transportation is the most important issue facing the city, followed by education at 15%. Of those who believe transportation is the most important issue, 72% plan to vote for Castor, while 21% plan to vote for Straz. Of likely voters who said education is the most important issue, 51% plan to vote for Castor and 33% plan to vote for Straz.

    "The most important issue to voters across all parties, access to public transportation, is one of Castor's strongest issues, in which she leads him by 51 percentage points," Binder noted. "In fact, in none of the top nine issues does Straz hold a lead over Castor."

    Respondents were also asked whether they approve or disapprove of continuing Tampa's driving safety campaign Stop on Red Tampa. This campaign aims to reduce crashes at intersections by using red light cameras to detect when drivers run a red light. Forty-two percent of respondents approve of the continued use of red light cameras in the city, while 54% disapprove. When asked who they believe should have the most influence in providing affordable housing in Tampa, 50% of respondents said local government, followed by 22% for non-profit leaders. Business leaders and religious leaders had 10% and 4%, respectively.

    "Even though only 54% disapprove of the red light camera program, 44% strongly disapprove, suggesting that there is deep seated opposition to this extremely contentious issue," said Binder.

    For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age, view the tables below.

    Survey Results

    If the 2019 election for Mayor of Tampa were held today, would you vote for…
    Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
    n=653
    Jane Castor 64%
    David Straz 28%
    Don't Know 9%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters
    n=428
    Republican Likely Voters
    n=211
    Jane Castor 68% 59%
    David Straz 23% 33%
    Don't Know 9% 11%

     

    Overall, do you think that Tampa is on the right track, or headed in the wrong direction?
    Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
    n=695
    Right Track 78%
    Wrong Direction 13%
    Don't Know 9%

     

    In your opinion, what do you think is the most important issue facing Tampa today? (Choices Rotated)
    Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
    n=700
    Education 15%
    Economy 9%
    Access to Health Care 9%
    Crime 8%
    Downtown Development 6%
    Tax Burden 2%
    Access to Public Transportation 27%
    Improving the Environment 6%
    Affordable Housing 3%
    Homelessness 1%
    Immigration <1%
    Infrastructure 5%
    Manage Growth <1%
    Traffic 2%
    Other 3%
    Don't Know 4%

     

    Currently, Tampa's driving safety campaign Stop on Red Tampa aims to reduce crashes at intersections with red light cameras. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the continued use of red light cameras?
    Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
    n=698
    Strongly Approve 25%
    Somewhat Approve 16%
    Somewhat Disapprove 10%
    Strongly Disapprove 44%
    Don't Know 5%

     

    Who should have the most influence in providing affordable housing in Tampa?
    Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    Local Government 50%
    Business Leaders 10%
    Non-profit Leaders 22%
    Religious Leaders 4%
    The people 1%
    Free Market 1%
    Federal Government 1%
    All 9%
    None 2%
    Other 1%
    Don't Know -

    Survey Demographics

    By Party
    Party Registration Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    Democrat 54%
    Republican 31%
    NPA and other 14%

     

    By Age
    Age Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    18 to 24 1%
    25 to 34 7%
    35 to 44 12%
    45 to 55 14%
    56 to 64 23%
    65 and older 43%

     

    By Race
    Race Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    White (not Hispanic) 55%
    Black (not Hispanic) 27%
    Hispanic 14%
    Other 4%

     

    By Sex
    Sex Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    Male 44%
    Female 56%

     

    By Phone Type
    Telephone Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    Landline 24%
    Cell phone 76%

     

    By Education Type
    Education Tampa Likely Voters
    n=702
    Less than high school 3%
    High school graduate 16%
    Some college 39%
    College graduate 22%
    Post graduate degree 18%
    Don't Know <1%

    Methodology

    The UNF Tampa Mayoral Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Wednesday, April 10, through Friday, April 12, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 4 to 9 p.m. Wednesday through Friday, with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Tampa. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any four of the following elections: 2014 Primary Election, 2014 General Election, 2016 Primary Election, 2016 General Election, 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming 2019 Mayoral Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 704 completed surveys of likely Tampa voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.7 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 21 to 79. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex and race weights were created from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in Tampa, Florida. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which won't assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. Individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 16 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • February 20, 2019 - Jacksonville Mayoral Election Poll

    The UNF Jacksonville Mayoral Election Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Saturday, February 16, through Tuesday, February 19, 2019, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 to 9 p.m. Saturday and Sunday and from 5 to 9 p.m. Monday and Tuesday. Interviews were conducted in English by UNF undergraduate students and employees. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. 

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Jacksonville. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2015 First Election, 2015 General Election or in both the 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming 2019 First Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 962 completed surveys of likely Jacksonville voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points.


    Embargo for February 20, 2019 - 8 a.m. EST

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

     

    New UNF Poll Shows Curry Outpaces Brosche in Mayoral Race Majority Say Crime Most Important Issue Facing Jacksonville

    The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Jacksonville has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is in the lead for the upcoming mayoral election in Jacksonville, with Anna Lopez Brosche a distant second. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today.

    The poll, comprised of likely Jacksonville voters, shows that 52 percent of respondents plan to vote for Curry. Regarding the other mayoral Republican candidates, 15 percent plan to vote for Brosche and 3 percent for Jimmy Hill. Six percent of likely voters plan to vote for Omega Allen, the only candidate without a party affiliation, 3 percent indicated that they would vote for another candidate and 22 percent don't know who their choice will be for mayor.

    Among Democrats, 25 percent indicate they plan to vote for Curry, 25 percent for Brosche, 12 percent for Allen and 2 percent for Hill. Thirty two percent of Democratic likely voters don't know for whom they'll cast their vote. Of Republican likely voters, 78 percent say they will vote for Curry, while only 4 percent indicate they'll vote for Brosche, 4 percent for Hill and 1 percent for Allen. Thirteen percent don't know.

    Additionally, the poll shows that 62 percent of likely voters in Jacksonville believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville, followed by education at 13 percent. Of those who believe crime is the most important issue, 58 percent plan to vote for Curry, while 13 percent plan to vote for Brosche. Of likely voters who said education is the most important issue, 51 percent plan to vote for Curry and 14 percent plan to vote for Brosche.

    "The election is upon us, absentee ballots have been mailed out and early voting begins in less than two weeks," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "It is very late in the game to dramatically change the narrative of these races."

    When asked who they would vote for in the 2019 election for Jacksonville Sheriff, 56 percent said they would vote for Mike Williams, the incumbent Republican, while 33 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote for Tony Cummings, the Democrat. For the Property Appraiser election, 57 percent indicated they would vote for Jerry Holland, the incumbent Republican, and 28 percent for Kurt Kraft, the Democrat. In the election for Tax Collector, incumbent Republican Jim Overton has 47 percent, followed by Democrat John R. Crescimbeni at 35 percent.

    In the Jacksonville City Council At Large elections, there was at great deal of variation. For At Large Group 1, Lisa King, the Democrat, is ahead with 32 percent, followed by the Republican candidates: Jack Daniels, Terrance Freeman and Gary Barrett, with 10 percent, 5 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. A large number of likely voters-45 percent-don't know who they will vote for. In At Large Group 2, 36 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Republican Ron Salem and 35 percent for Democrat Darren Mason, with 29 percent undecided.

    In the election for At Large Group 3, incumbent Democrat Tommy Hazouri is ahead with 38 percent, followed by Republican Greg Rachal at 26 percent. The other Democrat, James C. Jacobs, has 12 percent, and 25 percent don't know. At Large Group 4's candidates are all Republicans, with Matt Carlucci at 43 percent, Don Redman at 14 percent and Harold McCart at 3 percent of likely voters. Forty percent don't know who they will vote for. In At Large Group 5, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Samuel Newby, the incumbent Republican, followed by Chad Evan McIntyre, the Democrat with 29 percent. The candidate with no party affiliation, Niki Brunson, is at 6 percent and 34 percent don't know.

    "All of the races, and especially the At Large Council seats, have large proportions of "don't know" responses," Binder noted. "Also, it's important to remember for races with multiple candidates, if nobody gets to 50 percent, there will be a runoff for the top two candidates in May."

    Survey Results

    If the 2019 election for Mayor of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=912
    Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 6%
    Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 15%
    Lenny Curry, Republican 52%
    Jimmy Hill, Republican 3%
    Write-In 3%
    Don't Know 22%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=393 Republican Likely Voters n=440
    Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 12% 1%
    Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 25% 4%
    Lenny Curry, Republican 25% 78%
    Jimmy Hill, Republican 1% 4%
    Don't Know 32% 13%

     

    In your opinion, what do you think is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today? (Choices Rotated)
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=958
    Education 13%
    Economy 5%
    Access to Health Care 6%
    Crime 62%
    Downtown Redevelopment 6%
    Tax Burden 1%
    Access to Public Transportation 1%
    Improving the Environment 3%
    Something Else 3%
    Don't Know 1%

     

    In your opinion, vote choice by what do you think is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today?
    Answer Options Crime n=566 Education n=118
    Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 5% 7%
    Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 13% 14%
    Lenny Curry, Republican 58% 51%
    Jimmy Hill, Republican 3% 3%

     

    If the 2019 election for Sheriff of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=941
    Tony Cummings, Democrat 33%
    Mike Williams, Republican 56%
    Don't Know 11%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=414 Republican Likely Voters n=447
    Tony Cummings, Democrat 66% 4%
    Mike Williams, Republican 19% 90%
    Don't Know 15% 6%

     

    If the 2019 election for Property Appraiser of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=941
    Jerry Holland, Republican 57%
    Kurt Kraft, Democrat 28%
    Don't Know 15%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=415 Republican Likely Voters n=446
    Jerry Holland, Republican 26% 86%
    Kurt Kraft, Democrat 58% 2%
    Don't Know 16% 11%

     

    If the 2019 election for Tax Collector of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=936
    John R. Crescimbeni, Democrat 35%
    Jim Overton, Republican 47%
    Don't Know 18%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=411 Republican Likely Voters n=445
    John R. Crescimbeni, Democrat 66% 7%
    Jim Overton, Republican 14% 78%
    Don't Know 20% 14%

     

    If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 1 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=913
    Gary Barrett, Republican 5%
    Connell A. Crooms, No Party Affiliation 4%
    Jack Daniels, Republican 10%
    Terrance Freeman, Republican 5%
    Lisa King, Democrat 32%
    Don't Know 45%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=429
    Gary Bennett, Republican 1% 9%
    Connell A. Crooms, No Party Affiliation 5% 1%
    Jack Daniels, Republican 2% 17%
    Terrance Freeman, Republican 2% 7%
    Lisa King, Democrat 65% 2%
    Don't Know 27% 63%

     

    If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 2 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=919
    Darren Mason, Democrat 35%
    Ron Salem, Republican 36%
    Don't Know 29%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=406 Republican Likely Voters n=435
    Darren Mason, Democrat 70% 3%
    Ron Salem, Republican 8% 64%
    Don't Know 21% 33%

     

    If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 3 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=925
    Tommy Hazouri, Democrat 38%
    James C. Jacobs, Democrat 12%
    Greg Rachal, Republican 26%
    Don't Know 25%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=439
    Tommy Hazouri, Democrat 46% 30%
    James C. Jacobs, Democrat 23% 1%
    Greg Rachal, Republican 5% 45%
    Don't Know 26% 24%

     

    If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 4 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=854
    Matt Carlucci, Republican 43%
    Harold McCart, Republican 3%
    Don Redman, Republican 14%
    Don't Know 40%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=332 Republican Likely Voters n=445
    Matt Carlucci, Republican 36% 48%
    Harold McCart, Republican 3% 3%
    Don Redman, Republican 14% 15%
    Don't Know 47% 35%

     

    If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large - Group 5 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
    Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=920
    Niki Brunson, No Party Affiliation 6%
    Chad Evan McIntyre, Democrat 29%
    Samuel Newby, Republican 31%
    Don't Know 34%

     

    By Party
    Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=434
    Niki Brunson, No Party Affiliation 7% 4%
    Chad Evan McIntyre, Democrat 60% 2%
    Samuel Newby, Republican 6% 57%
    Don't Know 28% 38%

    Survey Demographics

    Party
    Party Registration Jacksonville Voters n=962
    Democrat 44%
    Republican 48%
    NPA and other 8%

     

    Age
    Age Jacksonville Voters n=962
    18 to 24 2%
    25 to 34 7%
    35 to 44 11%
    45 to 55 19%
    56 to 64 24%
    65 and older 37%

     

    Race
    Race Jacksonville Likely Voters n=962
    White (not Hispanic) 70%
    Black (not Hispanic) 23%
    Hispanic 2%
    Other 5%

     

    Sex
    Sex Jacksonville Likely Voters n=962
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Jacksonville Likely Voters n=955
    Landline 28%
    Cell phone 72%

     

    What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
    Education Jacksonville Likely Voters n=954
    Less than high school 2%
    High school graduate 19%
    Some college 47%
    College graduate 19%
    Post graduate degree 12%
    Don't Know <1%

    Methodology

    The UNF Jax Speaks Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Saturday, February 16, through Tuesday, February 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 to 9 p.m. Saturday and Sunday and from 5 to 9 p.m. Monday and Tuesday, with a maximum of 5 callbacks attempted. Interviews were conducted in English by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. Answer choices were ordered on the survey instrument in the order that they appear on the election ballot.

    The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Jacksonville. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2015 First Election, 2015 General Election or in both the 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming 2019 First Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 962 completed surveys of likely Jacksonville voters, 18 years of age or older.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 28 to 72.Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the January 9, 2019 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in Duval County. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 29 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • October 12, 2017 - JaxSpeaks

    The Jax Speaks Poll was conducted by PORL Monday, October 2, through Wednesday, October 4, 2017, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, Florida registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 512 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.3 percentage points. 

    This press release includes data involving opinions on the removal of confederate statues throughout Jacksonville, Florida.

    Crosstabs


    October 12, 2017

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    Racial and Partisan Divisions on Confederate Statues in Jacksonville

    A new poll of registered voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida finds that approximately 53 percent of Duval County registered voters oppose removing Confederate statues from public spaces, and 38 percent support their removal. Opposition is stronger among registered Republicans at 83 percent, while registered Democrats support removal of the statues at 56 percent. A similar split can be seen when comparing white and black respondents. Of the white registered voters, 68 percent oppose removing the Confederate statues, and 62 percent of black registered voters support their removal from public spaces.

    "With these sizable partisan and racial differences on this issue, I just hope that emotions stay in check and ultimately we come to a resolution that everybody can live with," Dr. Binder, faculty director of the PORL, commented.

    For the third year in a row, Jacksonville residents view crime as the most important problem facing the city, with 40 percent of registered voters. Women are more likely than men to believe that crime is the most important problem facing Jacksonville. Fully half of the women in the sample see crime as the most important problem, whereas only 28 percent of men in the sample feel the same.

    Mayor Lenny Curry continues his strong job approval number since he's been in office as 69 percent strongly or somewhat approve of the job he is doing. Even Jacksonville City Council has high approval numbers, as 50 percent approve and only 26 percent disapprove. When asked about Mike William's approval rate, 67 percent of Duval County registered voters strongly or somewhat approve of how he is handling his job as Jacksonville's Sheriff. Like the mayor, the sheriff's job approval crosses partisan lines as Republicans have 82 percent overall approval, and Democrats are not that far behind with 60 percent approval.

    The State Attorney, Melissa Nelson, has 55 percent job approval almost a year into her first term, but only 13 percent disapproval as almost a third of registered voters did not offer an opinion. Public Defender Charlie Cofer has only 36 percent approval and 14 percent disapproval, but 50 percent of the voters did not offer an opinion.

    "All of Duval's political leaders have extremely high job approval numbers," said Dr. Binder. "Contrast this level of satisfaction with what is happening in Washington right now, and downtown looks like a political paradise."

    Regarding the homeless in Jacksonville, 65 percent of registered voters in Duval County believe the city is doing too little to reduce homelessness. Another topic of interest concerning the City Council is the funding of a public pool at UNF. Support for committing city funds to build a public pool at UNF is at 72 percent of the overall sample.*

    For detailed methodology and crosstabs by party registration, gender, education, and race; click here: crosstabs.

    Methodology

    The Jax Speaks Poll was conducted by PORL Monday, October 2, through Wednesday, October 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, Fla. registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 512 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 509 answered the demographic questions needed for weighting.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 20 to 80 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Duval County. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Lenny Curry is handling his job as Mayor of Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 28%
    Somewhat Approve 41%
    Somewhat Disapprove 8%
    Strongly Disapprove 5%
    Don't Know 17%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Lenny Curry is handling his job as Mayor of Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Registered Democrats Registered Republicans Registered NPA/Others
    Approve 57% 84% 67%
    Disapprove 23% 2% 11%
    Don't Know 18% 13% 22%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Lenny Curry is handling his job as Mayor of Jacksonville?*
    Answer Options 2017 Registered Voters 2016 Likely Voters 2015 Likely Voters (Brown) 2014 Registered Voters (Brown) 2013 Residents (Brown) 2012 Registered Voters (Brown)
    Approve 69% 69% 55% 59% 70% 75%
    Disapprove 13% 17% 34% 22% 18% 11%
    Don't Know 18% 15% 11% 19% 12% 14%

    *Mayor Alvin Brown is listed in parentheses for the years he was in office

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Jacksonville City Council is handling its job?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 6%
    Somewhat Approve 44%
    Somewhat Disapprove 16%
    Strongly Disapprove 10%
    Don't Know 23%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Jacksonville City Council is handling its job?
    Answer Options 2017 Registered Voters 2016 Likely Voters 2015 Likely Voters 2014 Registered Voters 2013 Residents
    Approve 50% 48% 40% 45% 48%
    Disapprove 26% 32% 43% 36% 34%
    Don't Know 24% 19% 17% 18% 17%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Williams is handling his job as Jacksonville's Sheriff?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 33%
    Somewhat Approve 34%
    Somewhat Disapprove 10%
    Strongly Disapprove 8%
    Don't Know 14%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Williams is handling his job as Jacksonville's Sheriff?
    Answer Options Registered Democrats Registered Republicans Registered NPA/Others
    Approve 60% 82% 55%
    Disapprove 27% 5% 25%
    Don't Know 12% 12% 20%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mike Williams is handling his job as Jacksonville's Sheriff?*
    Answer Options 2017 Registered Voters 2016 Likely Voters 2015 Likely Voters (JSO) 2014 Registered Voters (JSO) 2013 Residents (JSO) 2012 Registered Voters (JSO)
    Approve 67% 72% 63% 66% 71% 72%
    Disapprove 18% 13% 31% 28% 26% 23%
    Don't Know 15% 14% 6% 6% 4% 5%

    *JSO is listed in parentheses for the years "Jacksonville Sheriff's Office" was asked

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patricia Willis is handling her job as the Duval County Superintendent of Schools?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 13%
    Somewhat Approve 29%
    Somewhat Disapprove 14%
    Strongly Disapprove 8%
    Don't Know 34%
    Refusal 1%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Patricia Willis is handling her job as the Duval County Superintendent of Schools?
    Answer Options 2017 Registered Voters 2016 Likely Voters (Vitti) 2015 Likely Voters (Vitti) 2014 Registered Voters (Vitti) 2013 Residents (Vitti)
    Approve 42% 50% 50% 52% 43%
    Disapprove 22% 34% 30% 26% 16%
    Don't Know 36% 17% 21% 22% 40%

    *Nikolai Vitti is listed in parentheses for the years he was the superintendent

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Anna Brosche is handling her job as Jacksonville City Council President?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 6%
    Somewhat Approve 23%
    Somewhat Disapprove 13%
    Strongly Disapprove 7%
    Don't Know 50%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charlie Cofer is handling his job as Public Defender?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 9%
    Somewhat Approve 27%
    Somewhat Disapprove 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 7%
    Don't Know 48%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Melissa Nelson is handling her job as State Attorney?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 19%
    Somewhat Approve 36%
    Somewhat Disapprove 7%
    Strongly Disapprove 6%
    Don't Know 31%
    Refusal 1%

     

    In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Education 20%
    Improving Transportation and Infrastructure 13%
    Crime 40%
    Taxes 2%
    Economy/Jobs 11%
    Improving the Downtown Area 10%
    Something Else 4%
    Don't Know 2%
    Refusal -

     

    In your opinion, what is the most important problem facing Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Male Female
    Education 19% 20%
    Improving Transportation and Infrastructure 17% 9%
    Crime 28% 50%
    Taxes 3% 2%
    Economy/Jobs 14% 9%
    Improving the Downtown Area 11% 8%
    Something Else 7% 1%
    Don't Know 2% 1%
    Refusal - -

     

    Duval County's Most Important Problem
    Date Most Important Problem Percentage of Respondents
    2017 Registered Voters Crime 40%
    2016 Likely Voters Crime 38%
    2015 Likely Voters Crime 33%
    2014 Registered Voters Public Education 27%
    2013 Residents Economy/Jobs 37%
    2012 Registered Voters Economy/Jobs 69%

     

    Do you support or oppose removing Confederate statues from public spaces around Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly support 27%
    Somewhat support 11%
    Somewhat oppose 15%
    Strongly oppose 39%
    Don't Know 7%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Do you support or oppose removing Confederate statues from public spaces around Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Registered Democrats Registered Republicans Registered NPA/Others
    Support 56% 15% 43%
    Oppose 31% 83% 44%
    Don't Know 9% 2% 12%

     

    Do you support or oppose removing Confederate statues from public spaces around Jacksonville?
    Answer Options White African American/Black Hispanic Other
    Support 30% 62% 40% 29%
    Oppose 68% 24% 40% 53%
    Don't Know 4% 11% 12% 8%

     

    Do you support or oppose the City of Jacksonville contributing funds to the building of a publicly accessible pool at the University of North Florida?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly support 40%
    Somewhat support 32%
    Somewhat oppose 10%
    Strongly oppose 12%
    Don't Know 5%
    Refusal 1%

    *According to UNF administration, the University is not seeking nor would it accept public funds for a public pool.

     

    Do you think that the City of Jacksonville is doing too much, too little, or about the right amount to reduce homelessness in Jacksonville?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Too much 2%
    Too little 65%
    About the right amount 21%
    Don't Know 12%
    Refusal 1%

     

    How appealing do you think downtown Jacksonville is to young adults?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Very appealing 6%
    Somewhat appealing 36%
    Somewhat unappealing 29%
    Very unappealing 23%
    Don't Know 6%
    Refusal -

     

    What area (if any) of downtown Jacksonville should the city prioritize for development and improvements?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Hemming Park/City Hall 9%
    Stadium/Ship Yards 19%
    Landing/Bay Street 38%
    Southbank 7%
    Resources should be directed elsewhere 22%
    Don't Know 6%
    Refusal <1%

    Survey Demographics

    Education
    Education Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Less than high school 2%
    High school graduate 19%
    Some college 49%
    College graduate 20%
    Post graduate degree 10%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Landline 20%
    Cell phone 80%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Language
    Survey language completed in… Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    English 99%
    Spanish <1%

     

    Race
    Race Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    White (not Hispanic) 60%
    Black (not Hispanic) 28%
    Hispanic 5%
    Other 8%

     

    Gender
    Gender Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Party
    Party Registration Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Republican 38%
    Democrat 41%
    NPA and other 22%

     

    Age
    Age Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    18 to 24 12%
    25 to 34 19%
    35 to 44 16%
    45 to 55 18%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 18%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • October 10, 2017 - Jax Speaks

    The Jax Speaks Poll was conducted by PORL Monday, October 2, through Wednesday, October 4, 2017, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, Fla. registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 512 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 509 answered the demographic questions needed for weighting. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

    This press release includes job approval ratings of the Jacksonville Jaguars leadership and opinions on the NFL protests. 

    Crosstabs


    October 10, 2017

    Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

    Department of Public Relations

    (904) 620-2102

     

    Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

    Public Opinion Research Lab Director

    (904) 620-2784

    New UNF Poll Reveals Dividing Nature of NFL Protests Among Duval County Voters

    Approximately 70 percent of Duval County registered voters watch at least an hour of NFL games per week, and some are impacted more than others by the recent national anthem protests. A new poll of registered voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida reveals that Republicans are less likely to watch and attend NFL games due to the protests.

    Of the registered Republicans in Duval County who watch the NFL on TV, almost 63 percent indicated they were less likely to watch NFL games because of the national anthem protest. Similarly, 57 percent of registered Republicans said they were less likely to attend games. For Democrats, less than 14 percent and 11 percent, respectively, indicated they were less likely to watch or go to games due to the protests. In fact, 18 percent of Democrats are more likely to watch and attend games.

    "For all of the attention that the pregame protests have gotten, on average most football fans are unaffected," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory faculty director. "The really interesting aspect is how politically polarized the issue has become-Democrats, on balance, are more likely to watch or go to games, but Republicans are much less likely to watch and go to games."

    When asked about Shad Khan's approval rate, 65 percent strongly or somewhat approve of the way he's handling his job as owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Doug Marrone, Jaguars head coach, received 58 percent of Duval County registered voters' approval.

    "Early season success and a division lead has the city behind the Jags' owner and head coach. And if this is the year they finally turn things around, you can expect those numbers to rise," Binder said.

    For crosstabs by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education, click here: crosstabs or go to http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/.

    Methodology

    The Jax Speaks Poll was conducted by PORL Monday, October 2, through Wednesday, October 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Duval County, Fla. registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 512 completed surveys of Duval County registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 509 answered the demographic questions needed for weighting.

    The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 20 to 80 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Duval County. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

    The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

    Survey Results

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Shad Khan is handling his job as the Owner of the Jacksonville Jaguars of the National Football League?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 35%
    Somewhat Approve 31%
    Somewhat Disapprove 10%
    Strongly Disapprove 13%
    Don't Know 11%
    Refusal 1%

     

    Do you approve or disapprove of the way Doug Marrone is handling his job as the Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars of the National Football League?
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Strongly Approve 21%
    Somewhat Approve 37%
    Somewhat Disapprove 9%
    Strongly Disapprove 12%
    Don't Know 20%
    Refusal 2%

     

    Approximately how much time do you spend watching NFL football on TV during the season; if you are not sure, please use your best estimate:
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Never watch the NFL 30%
    1 to 5 hours per week 46%
    6 to 10 hours per week 15%
    11 to 15 per week 3%
    16 or more hours per week 5%
    Don't Know 1%
    Refusal -

     

    Approximately how many National Football League games do you attend in person per season; if you are not sure, please use your best estimate:
    Answer Options Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Never attend 50%
    About once in the last two seasons 16%
    About once per season 11%
    A few times per season 16%
    More than 4 times per season 7%
    Don't Know <1%
    Refusal -

     

    As you may know, some athletes and sports teams have begun not standing during the national anthem in order to protest police violence against the black community in the United States.

    Does this make you more likely, less likely, or has no influence on you to watch NFL games on television?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters n=355
    More Likely 12%
    Less Likely 35%
    Has no influence 50%
    Don't Know 3%
    Refusal 1%

     

    Likelihood of watching games by party registration
    Answer Options Democrat Republican NPA/Other Total
    More Likely 18% 6% 15% 13%
    Less Likely 14% 63% 26% 35%
    Has no influence 66% 28% 54% 49%
    Don't Know 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Refusal - 1% 3% 1%

     

    As you may know, some athletes and sports teams have begun not standing during the national anthem in order to protest police violence against the black community in the United States.

    Does this make you more likely, less likely, or has no influence on you attending an NFL game?
    Answer Options Duval County Registered Voters n=254
    More Likely 13%
    Less Likely 32%
    Has no influence 53%
    Don't Know 1%
    Refusal 1%

     

    Likelihood of attending games by party registration
    Answer Options Democrat Republican NPA/Other Total
    More Likely 18% 11% 6% 13%
    Less Likely 11% 57% 30% 31%
    Has no influence 69% 31% 60% 54%
    Don't Know 2% 1% - 1%
    Refusal - - 4% 1%

    Survey Demographics

    Education
    Education Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Less than high school 2%
    High school graduate 19%
    Some college 49%
    College graduate 20%
    Post graduate degree 10%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Phone Type
    Telephone Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Landline 20%
    Cell phone 80%
    Don't Know -
    Refusal -

     

    Language
    Survey language completed in… Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    English 99%
    Spanish <1%

     

    Race
    Race Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    White (not Hispanic) 60%
    Black (not Hispanic) 28%
    Hispanic 5%
    Other 8%

     

    Gender
    Gender Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Male 45%
    Female 55%

     

    Party
    Party Registration Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    Republican 38%
    Democrat 41%
    NPA and other 22%

     

    Age
    Age Percentage: Duval County Registered Voters n=509
    18 to 24 12%
    25 to 34 19%
    35 to 44 16%
    45 to 55 18%
    56 to 64 18%
    65 and older 18%

     

    UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

  • August 26, 2016 - Jax Speaks (The Florida Times-Union)
    The Duval County Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, in partnership with The Florida Times-Union, Sunday, August 21, through Wednesday, August 24, 2016 by telephone with live callers. Respondents were likely primary voters in Duval County, Florida. Samples were created through voter files provided by Duval County's Supervisor of Elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 670 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older.
  • August 24, 2016 - Jax Speaks (Fourth Judicial Circuit & Public Defender)

    A Poll of Florida’s Fourth Judicial Circuit Likely Republican Primary Voters Shows Melissa Nelson with a Commanding Lead in the State Attorney’s Race 

    Press Release

  • July 11, 2016 - Jax Speaks

    Poll of Duval County Likely Voters Shows Mixed Feelings about Pension Tax but Overall Confidence in Local Leadership

    Press Release

  • July 6, 2016 - Jax Speaks (Judicial)

    A poll of Florida’s Fourth Judicial Circuit likely voters shows the potential for turnover in the State Attorney and Public Defender offices

    Press Release

  • July 6, 2016 - Jax Speaks (CD4)

    Poll in Florida Congressional District 4 shows John Rutherford with a comfortable lead

    Press Release

  • June 30, 2016 - Jax Speaks

    A New Poll of Florida Congressional District 5 likely Democratic votes shows  a slim lead for Corrine Brown 

    Press Release

  • May 7, 2016 - Jax Speaks

    Mixed news for Mayor Curry’s pension plan 

    Limited support with a great deal of uncertainty about the upcoming ballot measure.  

    Press Release

  • March 9, 2015 - Jax Speaks

    UNF Poll Shows Crime Tops List of Voters’ Concern

    Press Release

  • March 5, 2015 - Jax Speaks

    University of North Florida Poll Finds Uncertainty and Indecision as March 24th Election Looms

    Press Release

  • February 17, 2014 - Jax Speaks
    The survey was conducted and sponsored by PORL between Monday, Feb. 10, and Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2014, and includes 502 residents in Duval County, Florida. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.37 percentage points.
  • February 21, 2013 - Jax Speaks

    UNF Poll Shows Declining Approval for President but Growing Approval for Governor

    Press Release

  • February 18, 2013 - Jax Speaks

    UNF Poll Shows Jacksonville City Council Has Room for Improvement

    Press Release

  • February 12, 2013 - Jax Speaks

    University of North Florida Poll Reveals that the Economy is the Number One Concern for Duval County

    Press Release

  • April 3, 2012 - Jax Speaks
    This Jax Speaks poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL at UNF from March 27 - April 3, 2012 via the telephone by live callers.The sample is comprised of 746 Duval County registered voters. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.59 percentage points.
  • November 18, 2011 - Jax Speaks
    A University of North Florida poll taken Nov. 7-15 shows that among Jacksonville voters in potential voting matchups with Republican candidates, President Barack Obama tied with Mitt Romney, while leading Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Herman Cain.
  • June 25, 2018 - Putnam County Schools Survey

    Description: A RDD telephone survey of Putnam county residents conducted in conjunction with the University of South Florida Healthy Schools Project.

    Population: Putnam County, FL residents 18 years or older

    Field dates: June 18 – June 21, 2018

    Total number of completed surveys: 306

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 5.59

    AAPOR Response Rate #3: 7.5%

    June 25, 2018 - Putnam County Schools Survey 

  • February 13, 2017 - Pinellas County Schools Survey

    Description: A RDD telephone survey of Pinellas County parents and an over sample City of Dunedin, Fla. parents was conducted. This survey measured the viewpoints of parents who have a child in a neighborhood, magnet/choice, charter or out of district.

    In the field: December 12 - December 17, 2017

    Type of Survey: RDD Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Parents of Pinellas County, Fla.completed surveys: n=1,229

    Sub Sample: City of Dunedin parent or guardian: n=264

    Margin of sampling error: Pinellas County Parents +/- 3% and Dunedin Parents +/- 7%

    February 13, 2018 - Pinellas County Schools Survey

    February 13, 2018 - Pinellas County Schools Report

    Weights: There were no weights applied.

  • January 19, 2018 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Description: Jacksonville Public Education Fund (JPEF) Annual Survey of Education perceptions in Duval County, Fla. This annual poll measures the viewpoints of residents in Duval County on key issues in public education.

    In the field: November 27 - December 8, 2017

    Type of Survey: RDD Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Residents of Duval County, Fla.completed surveys: n=698

    Sub Sample: Duval County Public School parent or guardian: n=301

    Margin of sampling error for Duval County residents: +/- 4.34%

    January 19, 2018 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Weights: Race, age, gender and education is weighted to the 2016 America Community Survey, from the U.S. Census Bureau.

  • January 31, 2017 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Description: Jacksonville Public Education Fund (JPEF) Annual Survey of Education perceptions in Duval County, Fla. This annual poll measures the viewpoints of residents in Duval County on key issues in public education.

    In the field: January 9 - January 15, 2017

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completed Surveys: n=510

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 4.34%

    January 31, 2017 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Weights: Race, age, gender and education is weighted to the 2015 America Community Survey, from the U.S. Census Bureau.

  • December 2015 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Description: Jacksonville Public Education Fund (JPEF) Annual Survey of Education perceptions in Duval County, Fla. This annual poll measures the viewpoints of residents in Duval County on key issues in public education.

    In the field: November 2 - November 9, 2015

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completed Surveys: n=534

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 4.24

    December 2015 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Pol

    Weights: Race, gender age, and education is weighted to the 2014 America Community Survey, from the U.S. Census Bureau.

  • March 31, 2015 - Brevard, Columbia, and Lee County, Sexuality Education in Public Schools

    Description: The survey investigated Brevard, Columbia, and Lee County, Fla. residents on a variety of issues dealing with opinions and knowledge about sexuality education in public schools.

    Polling Universe: Brevard, Columbia and Lee County, Fla. residents 18 years of age of older

    In the field: February 27-March 16, 2015

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completes per county: Brevard - 302, Columbia - 310, Lee - 307

    Margin of sampling error for each county: +/- 5.5%*

    *Please note that the margin of sample error for each county was not adjusted for study design effects

    Community Values Survey Final Report

    Weights: The results were weighted by age, gender, and race to the estimated 2013 American Community Survey, from the U.S. Census Bureau. This analysis produced population parameters for demographic characteristics of residents 18 years of age or older in Brevard, Columbia, and Lee County, Florida.

  • January 30, 2015 - Hillsborough County, Sexuality Education in Public Schools

    Description: The survey investigated Hillsborough County, Fla. residents on a variety of issues dealing with opinions and knowledge about sexuality education in public schools.

    Polling Universe: Hillsborough County, Fla. residents 18 years of age of older

    In the field: January 22 - 30, 2015

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completed Surveys: 314

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 5.53%

    Hillsborough County Sex Education Final Report

    Weights: The results were weighted by age, gender, and race to the estimated 2013 American Community Survey, for adult (18 years of age or older) residents in Hillsborough County, Fla.

  • November 16, 2014 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Description: Jacksonville Public Education Fund (JPEF) Annual Survey of Education perceptions in Duval County, Fla., the first in what is expected to be an annual poll measuring the viewpoints of residents in Duval County on key issues in public education.

    In the field: November 10 - November 16, 2014

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completed Surveys: n=514

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 4.32

    JPEF Final Report

    Weights: Race, gender and education is weighted to the 2013 America Community Survey, from the U.S. Census Bureau. Party registration was weighted to the Florida Supervisor of Elections.

  • November 5, 2013 - Annual Public Education Perceptions Poll

    Description: Jacksonville Public Education Fund (JPEF) Annual Survey of Education perceptions in Duval County, Fla., the first in what is expected to be an annual poll measuring the viewpoints of residents in Duval County on key issues in public education.

    In the field: October 28 -- November 5, 2013

    Type of Survey: Telephone ( Landline and Cellphone)

    December 10, 2014 - Public Education Perceptions Poll

  • 2019 Duval County Arts and Culture Survey

    PORL conducted intercept surveys at various locations throughout the Jacksonville area to assess visitor and resident awareness of cultural offerings. 

    Final Report

  • 2019 Jacksonville Jazz Festival Economic Impact Report

    PORL conducted an economic impact survey at the Jacksonville Jazz Festival in downtown Jacksonville between May 24th and May 26th, 2019. The economic impact from festivals and events only relates to new money introduced into the local economy by visitors from outside the community. Additionally, only visitors that are motivated to come to the community because of the event can have their economic contributions credited toward the event.

    Final Report

  • 2018 Jacksonville Jazz Festival Economic Impact Report

    The Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida (UNF) conducted an economic impact survey at the Jacksonville Jazz Festival in downtown Jacksonville between May 25th and May 27th, 2018.

    Final Report

  • 2017 DONNA Marathon Weekend Economic Impact Report

    The 10th Annual DONNA Marathon weekend hosted 8,800 runners in 2017. PORL conducted an in-person survey at the event on Friday, February 10 and Saturday February 11, located at the DONNA Expo in the Prime F. Osborn III Convention Center in Downtown Jacksonville. The DONNA foundation was designed to fund ground breaking breast cancer research and to provide financial support for individuals living with breast cancer. Since its creation, the DONNA Foundation has served more than 10,000 families raised more than $4 million towards its vision to end breast cancer. The founder, Donna Deegan, started the DONNA Marathon Weekend in 2007.

    Final Report

  • 2015 The Players Economic Impact Report

    The economic impact survey was conducted at the THE PLAYERS Championship (TPC) at Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida.To ensure a representative sample, the surveying was conducted from 11:30 a.m. – 7:30 p.m., from Tuesday, May 5, through Saturday, May 9th, 2015.

    Final Report

  • 2014 Country Superfest Economic Impact Report

    The economic impact survey was conducted at the Country Superfest in downtown Jacksonville’s EverBank Field. To ensure a representative sample, the surveying was conducted from 11:30 a.m. – 6 p.m. on Saturday, June 14th, 2014 and Sunday, June 15th, 2014.

    Final Report

  • 2014 Rockville Economic Impact Report

    The economic impact survey was conducted at Metropolitan Park in downtown Jacksonville.To ensure a representative sample, the surveying was conducted from 11a.m. – 9 p.m. on Saturday and on Sunday from 12 p.m. to 8 p.m.

    Final Report

  • 2014 One Spark Economic Impact Report

    The economic impact survey was conducted at One Spark in downtown Jacksonville. To ensure a representative sample, the surveying was conducted from 4:00 p.m. - 10:00 p.m. on Thursday, 12:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m. on Friday, and 11:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m on Saturday.  

    Final Report

  • 2021 Florida Department of Transportation Motorcycle Safety Media Survey

    The Motorcycle survey used a mixed-mode design, employing both telephone and online surveys to measure awareness of a few different safety campaign messages, including “Watch for Motorcycles.” The target population of this survey was adult residents of the top 10 Florida counties for motorcycle fatalities.

    Final Report

  • 2021 Florida Department of Transportation Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Awareness Survey

    This mixed-mode survey measured awareness of the various campaign slogans, as well as self-reported behavior associated with pedestrian and bicyclist safety. The target population was adult residents of the top 25 Florida counties in pedestrian and bike fatalities.

    Final Report

  • 2021 Florida Department of Transportation "Click It or Ticket" Survey

    A telephone survey of the State of Florida was conducted, about residents' awareness of the "Click It or Ticket" safety campaign and their driving habits.

    Final Report

  • 2021 Florida Department of Transportation Driving Under the Influence Media Survey

    The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab will use telephone survey methodology to gather information about the attitudes of adults living in the State of Florida who have a valid driver’s license concerning their general driving habits, their driving habits after consuming alcohol, their perception of State Driving Under the Influence (DUI) laws, awareness of State drinking/driving public safety campaigns, and their perception of the best way to combat DUI offenses.    

    Final Report

  • 2020 Florida Department of Transportation Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Awareness Survey

    To conduct an awareness survey regarding Florida’s pedestrian and bicycle safety program in the 25 focus counties, collect and input data from various pedestrian and bicycle safety events, and deliver a final report on the results.

    Final Report

  • 2020 Florida Department of Transportation Motorcycle Safety Media Survey

    The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab will use telephone and in-person survey methodology to gather information from adult automobile and motorcycle operators about their general awareness of the Florida Department of Transportation’s (FDOT) motorcycle safety campaign.  The survey will focus on drivers who reside in Florida’s top counties for serious injury and fatal motorcycle crashes.

    Final Report

  • 2020 Florida Department of Transportation Driving Under the Influence Media Survey

    The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab will use telephone survey methodology to gather information about the attitudes of adults living in the State of Florida who have a valid driver’s license concerning their general driving habits, their driving habits after consuming alcohol, their perception of State Driving Under the Influence (DUI) laws, awareness of State drinking/driving public safety campaigns, and their perception of the best way to combat DUI offenses. 

    Final Report

  • 2020 Florida Department of Transportation Pedestrian and Bicycle High Visibility Enforcement Campaign

    Conduct pre and post awareness surveys of 4 counties in the Orlando designated market area (Brevard, Orange, Seminole, and Volusia County) that measures the awareness of residents on the High Visibility.

    Pre HVE Report

    Post HVE Report

  • 2019 Florida Department of Transportation Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Awareness Survey

    FDOT contracted with the PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in the State of Florida concerning FDOT’s Alert Today Alive Tomorrow media campaign messages, knowledge of Florida laws, and general pedestrian and bicycle habits. The performance goal is to monitor progress in FDOT’s Pedestrian and Bicyclist Program awareness and its coverage throughout the state. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of FDOT’s messaging, the PORL administered a telephone survey July 16 through August 12, 2019.

    Final Report

    Evaluation Report

  • 2019 Florida Department of Transportation "Click It or Ticket" Survey

    FDOT contracted with PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in the State of Florida concerning FDOT's "Click it or Ticket" media campaign. A telephone survey of the State of Florida was conducted, about residents' awareness of the "Click It or Ticket" safety campaign and their driving habits. 

    Final Report

  • 2019 Florida Department of Transportation Motorcycle Safety Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with the PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in 10 counties that experience some of the most serious injuries and fatal motorcycle crashes in the State of Florida. Motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists were asked about FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their general driving habits. The performance goal is to monitor the progress of FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their coverage throughout these counties.

    Final Report

  • 2019 Florida Department of Transportation Driving Under the Influence Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in the State of Florida concerning FDOT's Drive Sober or Get Pulled Over media campaign, general driving habits and driving habits after consuming alcohol. The performance goal is to monitor progress in FDOT's drinking and driving marketing campaign and its coverage throughout the state.  

    Final Report

  • 2018 Florida Department of Transportation Motorcycle Safety Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with the PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in 10 counties that experience some of the most serious injuries and fatal motorcycle crashes in the State of Florida. Motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists were asked about FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their general driving habits. The performance goal is to monitor the progress of FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their coverage throughout these counties.

    Final Report

  • 2018 Florida Department of Transportation "Click It or Ticket" Survey

    A telephone survey of the State of Florida was conducted, about residents' awareness of the "Click It or Ticket" safety campaign and their driving habits.

    Final Report

  • 2018 Florida Department of Transportation Driving Under the Influence Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in the State of Florida concerning FDOT's Drive Sober or Get Pulled Over media campaign, general driving habits and driving habits after consuming alcohol. The performance goal is to monitor progress in FDOT's drinking and driving marketing campaign and its coverage throughout the state.

    Final Report

  • 2017 Florida Department of Transportation Motorcycle Safety Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with the PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in 10 counties that experience some of the most serious injuries and fatal motorcycle crashes in the State of Florida. Motorcyclists and non-motorcyclists were asked about FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their general driving habits. The performance goal is to monitor the progress of FDOT's motorcycle safety awareness campaigns and their coverage throughout these counties.

    Final Report

  • 2017 Florida Department of Transportation "Click It or Ticket" Survey

    A telephone survey of the State of Florida was conducted, about residents' awareness of the "Click It or Ticket" safety campaign and their driving habits.

    In the field: June 5 - June 19, 2017

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline 29% and Cellphone 70%)

    Completed Surveys: n=1,500

    Margin of sampling error: +/- 2.53%

    Final Report

  • 2017 Florida Department of Transportation Driving Under the Influence Media Survey

    FDOT contracted with PORL at UNF to gather information about the attitudes and awareness of adults living in the State of Florida concerning FDOT's Drive Sober or Get Pulled Over media campaign, general driving habits and driving habits after consuming alcohol. The performance goal is to monitor progress in FDOT's drinking and driving marketing campaign and its coverage throughout the state.

    Final Report
  • 2015 Florida Department of Transportation "Click It or Ticket" Survey

    A telephone survey was conducted, both a pre-wave and post-wave survey, for the "Click It or Ticket" safety campaign, which took place during Memorial Day Weekend.

    Polling Universe: People 18 years of age or older with a valid driver's license and spend more than 1-month in Florida.

    In the field: [Pre-Wave] March 26 - April 6, 2015 & [Post-Wave] June 1 - June 17, 2015

    Type of Survey: Telephone (Landline and Cellphone)

    Completed Surveys: [Pre-Wave] 1,108 & [Post Wave] 1103

    Margin of sampling error for each county: +/- 2.9%

    Final Report