Polls

UNF Poll: Waters in Modest Lead vs Burton for Jacksonville Sheriff

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Crosstabs

UNF Poll shows DeSantis in Comfortable Lead for Florida Governor

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Crosstabs

New UNF Poll Shows Waters Narrowly Ahead of Burton for Sheriff

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UNF Poll: Fried Leading in Democratic Governor’s Primary

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Sample Demographics

New UNF Poll shows wide lead for DeSantis in Governor’s Race

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New UNF Poll on Legislative Issues Shows Opposition to Florida Abortion Bill

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UNF Poll: Polson and Howland in Dead Heat for City Council

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New Poll from UNF/The Tributary: Jax Voters Trust Local News Over National

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New UNF Poll: Most Duval Voters Opposed to Gas Tax Increase But Approve of Septic Tank Phase-out Plan

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The Jax Speaks Online Poll consists of 644 registered voters in Duval County, and was conducted from Monday, November 30 through Wednesday, December 2, 2020. 

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The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll is comprised of 863 registered, likely Florida voters and was conducted Monday, October 12 through Saturday, October 16, 2020.

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Online survey of Duval County, Fla. likely voters.

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UNF Poll of the State of Florida. This Poll features likely voters from an online sample frame from the Florida voterfile.

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UNF Poll Reveals Opposition to the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville

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UNF Poll: Fried Leading in Democratic Governor’s Primary

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Sample Demographics

New UNF Poll shows wide lead for DeSantis in Governor’s Race

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New UNF Poll on Legislative Issues Shows Opposition to Florida Abortion Bill

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The UNF PORL Florida Statewide Poll is comprised of 863 registered, likely Florida voters and was conducted Monday, October 12 through Saturday, October 16, 2020.

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Florida Statewide Poll of likely voters from an online sample frame.

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Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida Thursday, March 5 through Tuesday, March 10, 2020 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m. daily with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. The sample frame was comprised of 1,502 registered likely Democratic voters in Florida, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were determined through vote history (those who voted in the 2016 Democratic primary or the 2018 Democratic primary) and a self-identified likelihood to vote. All voters who were 20 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they may not have been eligible to vote previous elections. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote," "probably vote," or “already voted” in the upcoming Florida Democratic Primary Election qualified to participate in the survey. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the February 2020 update of the Florida voter file. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in Spanish and English. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, Nov. 9 through Wednesday Nov. 13, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.7 percentage points. 

Press Release

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, Oct. 14, through Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019 by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. during the week and noon to 9 p.m during the weekends with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points.

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Wednesday, Feb. 20, through Wednesday, Feb. 27, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Embargo for March 4, 2019 - 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Crosstabs 

New UNF Poll Shows Majority Approve DeSantis' Job PerformanceSen. Rubio Garners Higher Approval Over Sen. Scott

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of Florida registered voters that reveals a majority approve of the job Ron DeSantis is doing as governor. The survey also shows job approval for Sen. Marco Rubio is higher than job approval for newly elected Sen. Rick Scott.

The poll, comprised of registered voters in the state of Florida, shows approval for Gov. DeSantis at 60 percent overall, with a net positive of 41 points. Not surprisingly, the strongest support comes from registered Republicans at 81 percent approval and only 45 percent approval among registered Democrats. Overall, 21 percent don't know.

Additionally, 51 percent of respondents approve either strongly or somewhat of how Rubio is handling his job, a net positive of 21 points. Seventy-one percent of Republicans approve and 36 percent of Democrats approve of the job that he's doing. These figures are lower for Scott, with 43 percent overall approving, but only a net positive of 10 points.

Republican voters have 64 percent approval for Scott, and Democratic voters have 23 percent. Concerning Nikki Fried, Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, 32 percent approve strongly or somewhat of the job she's doing, with a net positive of 21 points. Among Democrats, Fried has 33 percent approval, and among Republicans she has 29 percent approval. Fifty-eight percent don't know how she's performing.

Gov. DeSantis is enjoying the honeymoon period of recently being elected. The question that will play out over the next two months is whether or not he can translate his popularity into policy during the legislative session in Tallahassee," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "Having unified Republican government should make things easier for the governor, but as we have seen in the past, personal relationships can make or break the budgeting process."

When asked what they believe is the most important problem facing Florida, education topped the list with 19 percent, followed closely by the environment and health care with 18 and 17 percent, respectively. Immigration leads the way for Republican voters with 22 percent, and Democrats believe health care is the most important problem, also at 22 percent.

Regarding the United States Space Command, 76 percent of registered voters support the Space Command being headquartered in Florida, 9 percent oppose, and 15 percent don't know. Among Democrats, support is at 67 percent, while Republicans have 85 percent support. When asked about allowing concealed carry on college campuses, 38 percent of registered voters support it, with 58 percent opposing. Democrats report 20 percent support of concealed carry on college campuses, while Republicans report 57 percent support. On a different note, only 46 percent of voters' support allowing teachers and school officials to conceal carry in K-12 schools, with 27 percent of Democrats and 68 percent of Republicans supporting it.

"DeSantis' recent appeals to bring the Space Command headquarters to Florida has tremendous support within the state," Binder noted. "In a much more controversial policy discussion, guns on college campuses and armed teachers in K-12 schools have more opposition than support."

Concerning smokable medical marijuana, 87 percent support legalization in Florida, while 12 percent oppose. Democratic voters have 89 percent support, while Republicans have 83 percent support. Similarly, when asked about recreational marijuana use, 62 percent of voters support legalizing it. Sixty-five percent of Democrats and 51 percent of Republicans support the legalization of recreational marijuana.

"Medical marijuana, in all of its forms, has overwhelming support among Florida's registered voters, Binder commented. "Even recreational marijuana, which has been proposed in the Florida legislature, has majority support among both Democrats and Republicans."

Survey Results

Early next month, Florida's legislative session will begin. Please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy changes in Florida:

Survey Demographics

Methodology

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Wednesday, Feb. 20, through Wednesday, Feb. 27, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of Florida voters. Overall, there were 870 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 21 percent to 78 percent, with 1 percent unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list.

All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of one. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 25 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, October 23 through Friday, October 26, by live callers via the telephone.  Overall, there were 1,176 completed surveys with a total of 1,051 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3 percentage points. 

Embargo for October 30, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

New UNF Poll Shows Andrew Gillum Leading Ron DeSantis in 2018 Governor's RaceSen. Bill Nelson Narrowly Leading Over Gov. Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Andrew Gillum in the lead for the upcoming gubernatorial election in Florida, with Ron DeSantis close behind and Sen. Bill Nelson with a slight lead over Gov. Rick Scott in the upcoming Senate election for the state of Florida. The survey also shows that a supermajority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions after they have served their sentences.

The poll, comprised of likely Florida voters, shows that 49 percent of respondents plan to vote for Gillum, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for Florida governor, while 43 percent plan to vote for the Republican candidate, DeSantis.

Of those likely voters, 7 percent don't know who their choice will be. Among Democrats, 87 percent indicate they plan to vote for Gillum, 7 percent for DeSantis and 6 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. Ten percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Gillum, while 84 percent indicate they'll vote for DeSantis; 7 percent don't know. Among Non-Party Affiliates (NPA) and other party likely voters, 56 percent plan to vote for Gillum, 31 percent for DeSantis and 13 percent are undecided.

Regarding the upcoming U.S. Senate race, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 47 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate, 46 percent would vote for Scott, the Republican and 7 percent didn't know. Of Democratic likely voters, 81 percent claim they will vote for Nelson, while 9 percent for Scott; 7 percent don't know. Among Republican respondents, 10 percent say they will vote for Nelson, 86 percent for Scott and 5 percent don't know.

"Almost 3 million people have already voted, and Gillum is clearly leading in the gubernatorial race. The senate race with Nelson and Scott is neck and neck, and the few remaining undecided voters are going to play a pivotal role in the outcome," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "The big leads that both Gillum and Nelson have among NPA/Others highlights the importance of having the right amount of independents in your poll. Currently less than 18 percent of ballots cast have been by NPA/Others, we estimate that number will be 19 percent by November 6^Th."

When asked about the election for Florida Attorney General, 47 percent plan to vote for Ashley Moody, the Republican, and 40 percent of respondents indicated that they would vote for Sean Shaw, the Democrat; 13 percent don't know. In regards to the election for the Florida Commissioner of Agriculture, 43 percent of likely voters plan to vote for Nikki Fried, the Democrat, 41 percent for Matt Caldwell, the Republican, and 17 percent don't know.

"Moody appears to have a comfortable lead in the Attorney General race, but the Agricultural Commission race is much tighter. Fried has a small lead, but there are a lot of undecided voters in both of the lower information cabinet races," Binder stated.

Additionally, the poll reveals that respondents continue to show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote "yes" or "no" on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 69 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 23 percent voting "no." Only 8 percent didn't know how they would vote. Regarding race, 93 percent of African-American respondents indicated they would vote "yes" on the amendment, while 66 percent of white respondents and 61 percent of Hispanic respondents claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition.

"Compared to our most recent poll in September, support for Amendment 4 has slipped a couple of points, but it still remains well above the 60 percent mark required for passage. Republican support has fallen by 9 percent, most likely due to some prominent Republican candidates expressing hesitation about the amendment," said Binder.

When likely voters were asked about banning offshore oil drilling and adding restrictions on vaping, 48 percent indicated that they would vote "yes," while 36 percent say they will vote "no". Sixteen percent don't know how they will vote. Of Democratic likely voters, 55 percent say they will vote "yes," 33 percent will vote "no," and 12 percent don't know. Thirty-eight percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote "yes," 42 percent will vote "no," and 20 percent don't know.

"The CRC bundled amendment that combines an offshore drilling ban and a workplace vaping ban has very little chance of passing based on these results. It's extremely rare for a ballot measure to garner more support in an election than it does in polling leading up to the election," Binder noted.

Regarding Trump's job approval, 45 percent of likely voters indicate that they approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president, while 51 percent disapprove. Four percent don't know.

*Due to rounding, some columns may add up to more 100%

** Candidate choices were randomly rotated

Survey Results:

Survey Demographics

Methodology:

The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Tuesday, October 23 through Friday, October 26, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' October 10, 2018 update.

The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, 2018 primary election or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. Additionally, a small segment of 'unlikely' voters (11 percent of respondents), demographically representative of all registered voters, were included in the sample to capture potential new voters. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote", "probably vote" or have "already voted" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 1,176 completed surveys with a total of 1,051 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. Only data from likely voters is presented here.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state.

Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS) and the 2014 exit polls. The ACS identifies 28 percent Floridians aged 25 and older as having a college degree, whereas 51 percent of the 2014 Florida exit polls were college educated. Due to the education bias in survey participation, we split the difference and weighted to 40 percent of our sample having a college degree. Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the October 10, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, September 17 through Wednesday, September 19, 2018 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students and employees in English and Spanish. Overall, there were 654 completed surveys with a total of 616 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.95 percentage points.

Embargo for September 24, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Crosstab (PDF)  

New UNF Poll Shows Gillum ahead of DeSantis for Governor with Nelson and Scott Tied for SenateHigh Support for Restoring Felon Voting Rights Among Likely Voters

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Andrew Gillum in the lead for the upcoming gubernatorial election in Florida, with Ron DeSantis close behind, and Sen. Bill Nelson locked in a dead heat with Gov. Rick Scott in the upcoming Senate election for the state of Florida. The survey also shows that a supermajority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions after they have served their sentences.

The poll, comprised of likely Florida voters, shows that 47 percent of respondents plan to vote for Gillum, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for Florida governor, while 43 percent plan to vote for the Republican candidate, DeSantis.

Of those likely voters, 10 percent don't know who their choice will be. Among Democrats, 85 percent indicate they plan to vote for Gillum, 6 percent for DeSantis and 9 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. Eleven percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Gillum, while 81 percent indicate they'll vote for DeSantis; eight percent don't know.

Regarding the upcoming U.S. Senate race, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 45 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate, 45 percent would vote for Scott, the Republican, and 8 percent didn't know. Of Democratic likely voters, 78 percent claim they will vote for Nelson, while 9 percent for Scott; thirteen percent don't know. Among Republican respondents, 12 percent say they will vote for Nelson, 83 percent for Scott and 4 percent don't know.

"It's still early in the election season and even though Gillum has a small lead, a lot can happen in the next six weeks. Nelson and Scott are currently tied, but one bit of hope for Nelson is that more Democrats are unsure who they will vote for and partisans will come home in November," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "With polling numbers this close, the candidates that are most successful getting their voters to the polls are the ones who are going to win. Historically, Florida has had very close statewide elections, and this year is shaping up to be no different."

Additionally, the poll reveals that respondents show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote "yes" or "no" on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 71 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 21 percent voting "no." Only 8 percent didn't know how they would vote. Regarding race, 82 percent of African-American respondents indicated they would vote "yes" on the amendment, while 69 percent of white respondents and 65 percent of Hispanic respondents claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition.

"These results reflect the status of African-Americans as the population most directly affected by Florida's felon disenfranchisement laws," said Dr. Natasha Christie, chair of the Department of Political Science and Public Administration at UNF. "With such a large majority of likely voters saying they would vote "yes" on Amendment 4, this indicates views on this issue are becoming more progressive overall throughout the state, regardless of race."

When asked about the most important problem in Florida, education-20 percent-led the way, followed closely by health care and environment with 18 percent.

"Democrats across the state have been highlighting both health care and the environment, a message that appears to resonate with a lot of voters," Binder noted

For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age go see the tables below.

Survey Results

Survey Demographics

Methodology

The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, September 17 through Wednesday, September 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' August 8, 2018 update.

The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" or "probably vote" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 654 completed surveys with a total of 616 likely Florida voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.95 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 31 to 68 percent (1 percent were unidentified).A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education.

Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the August 8, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The Statewide Florida survey was conducted and sponsored by PORL Monday, Jan. 29, through Sunday, Feb. 4, 2018 by live callers via the telephone.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students and employees in both Spanish and English. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Embargo for February 12, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Crosstab (PDF) 

New UNF Poll Shows Florida Governor Candidates Lack Name RecognitionRespondents Show High Support for Restoring Felon Voting Rights

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll that reveals an overwhelming lack of name recognition among Democratic candidates and Republican candidates running for Florida governor. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents support restoring the voting rights of individuals with felony convictions.

The poll, comprised of Florida registered voters, asked respondents to give their opinion on Andrew Gillum, Gwen Graham, Phillip Levine, Richard Corcoran, Ron DeSantis and Adam Putnam, all candidates running for Florida governor. Concerning the Democratic candidates, the percentage of respondents who had never heard of them ranges from 73 percent for Levine to 81 percent for Gillum. Graham had the highest favorability of the three Democratic candidates, with 11 percent viewing her favorably and 4 percent unfavorably, while 78 percent had never heard of her.

The Republican candidates didn't fare any better as 67 percent had never heard of Putnam, 72 percent never heard of DeSantis and 78 percent never heard of Corcoran. Putnam received the highest favorability among Republicans, with 14 percent viewing him favorably and 7 percent unfavorably.

"It's a little surprising that so few people have heard of the candidates, particularly Adam Putnam who has won two statewide races, and Gwen Graham, who is a former member of Congress and the daughter of former Gov. and Sen. Bob Graham," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "These results highlight both the opportunities for the candidates to shape the voters' perception of them and the challenges they face in getting out their message."

The poll also shows that respondents show high support for restoring felon voting rights. When asked whether they would vote yes or no on a proposition to restore the voting rights of Floridians with felony convictions, 71 percent of registered voters claimed they would vote "yes" on the proposition, with 22 percent who would vote "no."

"Amendment 4, the voting rights restoration measure, facing voters in the fall is so widely supported, even a majority of Republicans support it. What remains to be seen is whether or not an influx of money opposing this ballot measure will knock off enough support to prevent it from reaching the 60 percent necessary to pass," Binder said.

When asked whether they support or oppose lifting the bans on offshore oil drilling, 55 percent of registered Florida voters polled either strongly or somewhat oppose, while 37 percent strongly or somewhat support lifting the bans. Regarding DACA, respondents were asked about their views on illegal/undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. A large majority, 82 percent, supported letting them stay in the U.S. to eventually apply for citizenship, while 5 percent stated they could stay but not apply for citizenship. Nine percent claimed they should be required to leave the U.S.

"Even though DACA and offshore oil drilling will likely get sorted out at the national level, Floridians have strong opinions on these issues-very supportive of a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and opposed to opening up offshore oil drilling-and these opinions could very well influence the upcoming senate and gubernatorial elections," noted Binder.

Regarding some policies facing Florida's legislature, 59 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat oppose allowing concealed weapons to be carried on university and college campuses, with 35 percent in support. When asked about removing Florida's home rule, 47 percent strongly or somewhat oppose giving the state government additional power over local government decisions, while 30 percent support it either strongly or somewhat. A majority of respondents, 62 percent, strongly or somewhat support legalizing and regulating recreational marijuana, with 35 percent in opposition.

"This is the third time over the past year we've asked about concealed weapons on college campuses, and the results are remarkably consistent. Voters are opposed to changing the current restrictions, and it will be interesting to see if the legislature listens to their electorate," Binder said. "There is also opposition, though not nearly as strong, in scaling back Florida's home rule, something legislators may want to pay attention to before acting to fundamentally alter governance in Florida."

When asked about the most important problem facing Florida today, the most popular response was education at 20 percent, followed closely by health care, 16 percent, and crime, 15 percent. Out of all respondents, 52 percent either strongly or somewhat approve of the way that the Florida legislature is handling its job, with 33 percent disapproving either strongly or somewhat.

Survey Results

We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of that person, or if you've never heard of them.

*This question was a split sample with half the sample being read "illegal" and half the sample being read "undocumented". There was only one percentage point difference between the two different question wordings.

Survey Demographics

Methodology

The University of North Florida (UNF), Florida Statewide Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at UNF Monday, January 29, through Sunday, February 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 12 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday and 11 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Sunday.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Florida registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone.

To ensure a representative sample being collected, the state was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from  Monday, Jan. 29, through Sunday, Feb. 4, by live callers via the telephone from 4 to 9 p.m with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Press Release for February 7, 2018

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Crosstab (PDF) 

New UNF Poll Shows Sen. Bill Nelson Leading Gov. Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election President Donald Trump's Job Approval Rating Low But Improving

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll that reveals Sen. Bill Nelson in the lead for the upcoming Senate election, with Gov. Rick Scott trailing close behind. The survey also shows that President Trump's job approval rating has risen some since last fall.

The poll, comprised of Florida registered voters, shows that of likely voters in 2018, 48 percent plan to vote for Nelson, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate, while 42 percent plan to vote for Scott, the Republican. Of those likely voters, 7 percent don't know who their choice will be.

Regarding the U.S. House of Representatives, when asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, 42 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for the Democratic candidate, 40 percent would plan to vote for the Republican candidate and 14 percent didn't know.

"Even though it appears Nelson has a reasonable lead in the poll, the election results will ultimately get determined by who shows up in November," said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "Historically, Republicans have enjoyed a turnout advantage in midterms, but with the current mood of the country, and a large number of Republican retirements, Democrats are optimistic about an impending blue wave."

Of registered voters who were asked whether they approve or disapprove of the way Nelson is handling his job as senator, 52 percent of registered voters claim to somewhat or strongly approve, with only 20 percent somewhat or strongly disapproving. Notably, 26 percent of voters expressed they don't know how Nelson is handling his job. When asked about the way Scott is handling his job as Florida governor, 63 percent reported to strongly or somewhat approve, with 31 percent disapproving either somewhat or strongly.

"Both senate candidates have net positive job approval ratings of 32 percentage points," said Binder. "This high level of job approval is very unusual and is going to lead to a hotly contested election."

When asked about how Sen. Marco Rubio is handling his job, 55 percent strongly or somewhat approve, compared to the 35 percent who reported to somewhat or strongly disapprove.

When asked about President Donald Trump's job approval rating, 43 percent of the overall sample strongly or somewhat approve of how he's handling his job, with 53 percent disapproving somewhat or strongly. A large amount of registered Democrats-87 percent-disapprove of Trump, while only 16 percent of registered Republicans disapprove. On the contrary, Trump held 81 percent job approval among registered Republicans, compared to 40 percent approval among nonpartisans and a dismal 10 percent job approval among registered Democrats.

"Most presidents would consider 43 percent approval and net negative 10 percentage points a troubling number, but Trump's approval is up 6 percentage points from his approval level in October, and his net negatives have improved by 12 percentage points," noted Binder.

In light of the recent investigation into Russian involvement in the 2016 election, when asked about the way Robert Mueller is handling his job as Special Counsel for the United States Department of Justice, 40 percent of registered voters somewhat or strongly approve, 28 percent of voters somewhat or strongly disapprove and 29 percent of voters don't know how he's handling his job.

"Even though Mueller is acting in a legal capacity, and has a 12-percentage point net positive job approval, there are partisan divisions as Democrats are much more supportive than Republicans in their views on Mueller," said Binder.

Survey Results

*Respondents that indicated that they would vote in the upcoming senatorial election

** Respondents that indicated active voting and/or enthusiasm for the upcoming midterm election

Survey Demographics

Methodology

The University of North Florida (UNF), Florida Statewide Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at UNF Monday, January 29, through Sunday, February 4, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday, 12 p.m. to 9 p.m. Saturday and 11 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. Sunday.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among Florida registered voters in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

To determine likely voters, respondents were asked two questions related to the upcoming midterm elections. First, they were asked on a scale of one (never) to five (always), how often do they vote in non-presidential elections. Second, respondents were asked about their enthusiasm for the upcoming election (not at all, somewhat or very enthusiastic). Respondents who answered four or five for the frequency of voting question, or answered a three to the frequency of voting question and also answered somewhat or very enthused about the upcoming midterm elections were included as likely voters.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.The margin of error for likely voters in the November 2018 midterm election is +/- 4.7 percentage points. This study had a 13.8% response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone.

To ensure a representative sample being collected, the state was stratified using the 10 Florida designated market areas (DMA). DMAs are defined as regions where the population can receive the same or similar television and radio station offerings, as well as other types of media including newspapers and Internet content. In addition, because of Miami-Dade County's unique population, it was separately accounted for in its own strata, creating 11 strata from the 10 DMAs. Quotas were placed on each of these stratified areas to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, gender, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, gender, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Florida Statewide survey was conducted and sponsored by PORL Wednesday, Oct. 11, through Tuesday, Oct.17, 2017 by live callers via the telephone. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. daily. by UNF undergraduate students and employees in English and Spanish. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 838 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.39 percentage points with a response rate of 16 percent (response rate 4 was used form the American Association of Public Opinion Research, AAPOR).

Crosstabs

October 24, 2017

October 24, 2017

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

New UNF Poll Finds Razor Thin Lead for Nelson in Upcoming Senatorial Election

A new poll of registered voters in Florida shows those that indicated they will vote in 2018, 37 percent say they plan to vote for Sen. Bill Nelson, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate, while 36 percent plan to vote for Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican and 20 percent don't know who their choice will be.

Registered Democrats in the sample intended to vote for Nelson at 66 percent, while 68 percent of registered Republicans plan to vote for Scott. Interestingly, nonparty affiliates and other partisans are leaning toward Nelson at 32 percent, compared to the 28 percent that plan to vote for Scott.

When asked about Scott's job approval, 59 percent strongly or somewhat approve of his job as governor, with 82 percent of registered Republicans approving of Scott and 40 percent of registered Democrats approving. Nelson, however, has a 35 percent overall job approval rate and only 15 percent disapprove. Surprisingly, 49 percent don't know how he's handling his job as senator.

"Like most statewide races in Florida, the senate race between Nelson and Scott is going to be too close to call all the way until Election Day," said Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "The one major concern for Democrats has to be the public's lack of awareness of Nelson. When a three-term sitting U.S. senator has almost half of the sample unable to assess his job approval, you have a problem."

When asked about President Donald Trump's job approval rating, 59 percent of the overall sample strongly or somewhat disapprove of how he's handling his job, with only 37 percent approving. A vast amount of registered Democrats-91 percent-disapprove of Trump, while only 23 percent of registered Republicans disapprove. On the flip side, there is 72 percent job approval for Trump among registered Republicans, compared to only 33 percent for nonparty affiliates and other party registrants and a measly 6 percent job approval among registered Democrats.

"Donald Trump is just as divisive in Florida as he is across the rest of the country, but as long as he maintains support from Republicans, I wouldn't expect any major changes in his administration," Binder noted.

Another issue sharply divided by partisanship is what to do about Confederate statues. Overall, 40 percent of respondents believe they should remain in place, while 47 percent believe they should be moved to museums and another 9 percent believe they should be removed entirely. However, 66 percent of registered Republicans believe they should stay, while 76 percent of registered Democrats believe they should be moved to museums or removed completely.

"As Tallahassee contends with newly introduced House Bill 235 dealing with Confederate statues, Floridians should take note of the partisan divisions on this issue," said Binder. "Republicans dominate the legislature, and the Republican voters don't want the statues moved; this presents a real dilemma for legislators facing public pressure to do something about this issue."

Regarding income taxes, a large majority of registered voters in Florida-67 percent-prefer a progressive tax rate to a flat-tax rate. Only 29 percent prefer a flat federal income rate. When asked about the role of government and the private sector providing insurance, 41 percent thought that the government should insure most people or everyone. Only 24 percent believe private insurance should insure most or everyone.

"In the wake of Bernie Sanders' presidential run and the struggles with Obamacare, there appears to be support for government to take on a larger role in providing health insurance to Floridians," Binder commented.

The poll also shows very few Floridians want to reduce legal immigration, as 30 percent of registered voters want to see legal immigration increased and 42 percent want to keep immigration at present levels. "For all of the debate about illegal immigration and undocumented immigrants, Florida is very supportive of legal immigration," Binder said.

See our crosstabs by partisanship, sex, age, race, and education.

Survey Results

*Only respondents that indicated that they would vote in the upcoming senatorial election were included

^The poor would pay a very low percentage of their income in federal taxes, the middle class would pay a little higher percentage, and the rich would pay an even higher percentage.

*Everybody, regardless of income, would pay about the same percentage of their income in federal taxes.

Survey Demographics

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Florida Omnibus Fall Survey  was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Thursday, October 5, through  Wednesday, October 11, 2017 live callers via the telephone, from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily. The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.96 percentage points. 

Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race

October 17, 2017 - Crosstabs

October 17, 2017

Media Contact: Amanda Dawson, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

New UNF Poll Finds Florida Voters Oppose Prohibiting the Sale of Assault Weapons

JACKSONVILLE, Fla - A new poll of registered voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida finds that of registered voters in the state of Florida, 52 percent oppose prohibiting the sale of assault weapons and large capacity ammunition magazines, with 42 percent in support of the prohibition. Registered Republicans in Florida have 55 percent opposition, and even a little under half of registered Democrats oppose prohibiting assault weapon sales at 47 percent. These results are similar to the numbers from a PORL poll conducted earlier this spring.

"Even in the wake of the Las Vegas shootings, Floridians are not supportive of restricting access to assault weapons," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory faculty director. "With all of the political polarization in America about guns, I'm actually a little surprised that more Democrats are not supportive of more restrictions."

When asked about allowing licensed individuals to openly carry, 54 percent oppose and only 40 percent support. Support is down from this spring, when 44 percent supported the open carry of handguns. The parties are more divided on open carry as 69 percent of registered Democrats are opposed, but registered Republicans in the sample support open carry legislation at 57 percent. In regards to the concealed carry of handguns on college campuses, opposition is high at 59 percent, with 37 percent in support. Overall opposition has decreased slightly since the spring results, in which 64 percent opposed and 35 percent supported concealed carry at colleges and universities. Large portions of registered Democrats (78 percent) oppose this policy, while a slight majority (54 percent) of registered Republicans support concealed carry at colleges and universities.

"Even though registered voters are opposed to open carry and campus carry here in Florida, Republicans remain supportive of these issues, which could influence policy in Tallahassee during the upcoming legislative session," Binder said.

View the crosstabs by partisanship, sex, age, race and education.

Methodology

The Florida Omnibus Fall Survey was conducted by live callers at the UNF PORL, via the telephone, from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily, October 5, through October 11.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections' September 2017 update and selected through the use of probability sampling among registered voters in the state of Florida in the Florida voter file. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate and graduate students. Overall, there were 619 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older. Of those, 611 had enough demographic data needed for weighting.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.96 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 71 percent, with 1 percent refusal. A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. The total sample was then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the September 2017 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

In the next couple months, Florida's Legislative session will begin. Please tell me whether you support or oppose the following policy changes in Florida:

Survey Demographics

*2% of respondents did not have their sex listed in the voter file

UNF, a nationally ranked ;university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

New UNF Poll Shows Senator Bill Nelson Leading Governor Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race

Florida Statewide Poll

March 6, 2017

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

New UNF Poll Shows Senator Bill Nelson Leading Governor Rick Scott in 2018 Senate Election

A new poll of registered voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that, when asked about the 2018 election, 44 percent of Florida registered voters said they would vote to re-elect Sen. Bill Nelson, while 38 percent said they would vote for Gov. Rick Scott and 12 percent were undecided.

"Even though it's very early in the 2018 election season, Nelson's six-point lead is meaningful," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory faculty director. "This race is going to get national attention and Rick Scott's alliance with Donald Trump will likely factor into this election's outcome next year."

Although Donald Trump won the state in the presidential election, the majority of Florida's registered voters-51 percent-disapprove and only 44 percent approve of the way Trump's handling his job as president.

"Trump's soft job-approval numbers could have huge implications during the midterm races, just ask all the Democrats that lost in 2010 when Obama's numbers were the lowest they had been to that point, and Republicans that ran in 2006, when Bush's popularity was plummeting," noted Binder.

An even greater percentage of Florida registered voters-65 percent-disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job, while 28 percent approve. When asked about Marco Rubio, 48 percent of Florida registered voters disapprove of the way he's handling his job as U.S. Senator, while 40 percent approve and 12 percent don't know.

"Even though Rubio was able to win re-election in November, he's continued to have low job-approval numbers," Binder said. "It will be interesting to see how his latest interactions with protestors affects his approval going forward."

For Bill Nelson, 42 percent of Florida registered voters approve of his job performance as U.S. Senator, 28 percent disapprove and 29 percent don't know.

"A 42 percent job approval isn't a number an incumbent is usually happy about but with only 28 percent of the electorate disapproving of the job he's doing, Nelson is a net positive 14 points. That difference in approval is greater than Rubio, Trump and his likely re-election opponent, Scott," said Binder.

The majority-51 percent-of Florida registered voters disapprove, while 46 percent approve of Trump's travel ban executive order, which prohibits travel to the U.S. for the next three months by citizens of seven majority Muslim countries. It also suspends the U.S. refugee program. Following national trends, Florida opposes the Trump immigration ban, but the state is divided, according to Binder.

For all of the controversy surrounding transgender rights, 62 percent of registered Florida voters don't think using the same bathroom as a transgender individual would make them uneasy. The overwhelming majority-79 percent-don't think transgender individuals are a sexual threat to children and women.

"Hopefully, findings like these can change the way the debate over the rights of transgender people is presented in the media," said Dr. Curtis Phills, UNF associate professor of psychology. "Too often, which bathroom a transgender person uses is presented as controversial when, in fact, most people aren't concerned."

For crosstabs by partisanship, gender and race, go to http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/.

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by PORL Monday, Feb. 13, through Sunday, Feb. 26, by live callers via the telephone, and calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. daily.The sample of phone numbers was created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections January 2017 update and selected through the use of randomization among registered voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by 247 UNF undergraduate students. Overall, there were 973 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of error is +/- 3.14 percentage points with an 18.5% response rate*. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 27 to 73 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. The total sample was weighted by partisan registration, gender, race and age to match the active registered voters in Florida. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

*Response Rate 3 - AAPOR Response Rate 3 (RR3) includes an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are actually eligible.

Survey Results

Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:

Breakdown

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

Poll Shows Somewhat Favorable Governor Job Approval, Gun Bills/Tax Plan Opposition 

Press Release: March 2, 2017

Crosstabs - Partisanship, Gender and Race 

Crosstabs

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers via the telephone. UNF undergraduate students completed the interviews in English and Spanish Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Overall, 836 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older completed the survey. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.39 percentage points. 

October 27, 2016

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Poll Shows Clinton, Rubio and Amendment 2 hold leads in Florida

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest-with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton holds the lead.

She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today.

"There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 - 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably" said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida."

In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. "Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy," said Dr. Binder.

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote "yes" on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.

"This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2," Dr. Binder noted.

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Crosstabs

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

Florida Likely Voters n= 781

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

Florida Likely Voters n= 764

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

Florida Likely Voters n= 803

Florida Likely Voters n= 803

October 13, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.

Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13^th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.

"This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

"Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.

The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Crosstabs

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Press Release for Tuesday, October 11, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Rubio leads the Senate Race and Overwhelming Support for Constitutional Amendment 2

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Marco Rubio leads the Senate race with 47 percent to Patrick Murphy's 41 percent, with 10 percent still undecided.

"Rubio is holding a solid seven point lead and appears to be on his way to re-election", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "Rubio is seeing support from men, (52-38) but also has a slim lead among women as well (44-43). Rubio has done a better job of rallying his base (81 percent support among Republicans) than Patrick Murphy (69 percent support among Democrats). The most startling difference in this race is that 21 percent of voters have never heard of Patrick Murphy, while only 2 percent have not heard of Marco Rubio, and that is a big number for a US Senate candidate."

When asked about Florida Constitutional Amendment 2, which allows the medical use of marijuana, the overwhelming majority of likely Florida voters (77 percent) said they would vote for the amendment, while only 18 percent said they would vote against it.

"Huge majorities of likely voters support Florida Constitutional Amendment 2," said Binder. "Not only are Democrats wildly supportive, but even Republicans are above the 60 percent threshold required for passage. The strongest support comes from the voters 34 years old and younger, but even likely voters 65 and older are in favor of legalizing medical marijuana."

Respondents were also asked their viewpoint about marijuana legalization in general and 40 percent said marijuana should be legal for recreational use, 45 percent said marijuana should be legal for medicinal use and 15 percent it should not be legal at all.

"In 2014, a last minute opposition media campaign was credited with sinking a similar amendment causing it to narrowly fail," according to Binder. "However, it appears that this time around voters are on the verge of legalizing medicinal marijuana in the state of Florida."

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Crosstabs

The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday September 27, through Tuesday, October 4, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Surveys were conducted in both English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections on September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Overall, 696 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older completed the survey. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points. 

Press Release for Thursday, October 6, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Poll of Likely Voters Shows that Florida Swings Towards Hillary Clinton

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump (40 percent), if the election with just those two candidates were held today.

In a four candidate contest-with Trump, Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton still prevailed with 41 percent, Trump followed with 38 percent, Johnson garnered 6 percent and Stein finished fourth with 3 percent and 10 percent still undecided.

"Clinton has gotten a bounce after her strong debate performance last week, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out after the second debate on Sunday", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

"The size of Clinton's lead drops when the additional candidates (Johnson and Stein) are listed in the question," Binder noted. "This suggests that the Clinton campaign should perhaps perceive Johnson as a threat, who is taking more votes from her than Trump."

According to Binder, while neither candidate has high favorability for the majority of likely voters in Florida, Clinton's net negative 9 percent is better than Trump's net negative 23 percent.

When asked about their vote choice, 46 percent of those who said they were voting for Trump indicated that it was a vote against Clinton; for those who are voting for Clinton, 43 percent said their vote would be against Trump. "Interestingly, both candidates are almost evenly split when it comes to whether people are voting for or against them, which is unusual in a presidential election," Binder said.

When asked about immigration policy, the results were somewhat surprising considering the prominence of that issue in this election. "For all of the talk about deportation and 'building walls', majorities of Democrats, NPAs and even Republicans in Florida are supportive of pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants", said Binder.

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

If Vote Choice Trump:

If Vote Choice Clinton:

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.

Crosstabs

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

Florida Likely Voters n= 561

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

Florida Likely Voters n=661

Florida Likely Voters n= 570

Florida Likely Voters n= 623

Florida Likely Voters n= 690

Florida Likely Voters n= 626

The UNF Florida Statewide Republican Primary Poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL from Wednesday, March 2 through Monday, March 7, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Republican primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Overall, 752 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida participated in the survey. The margin of sampling error of the total sample is +/- 3.57 percentage points.

Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL Monday, February 22 through Saturday, February 27, 2016 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Democratic Primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51% percent of recent statewide elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Overall, 685 registered likely Democratic voters participated in the poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.74 percentage points. 

Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide Democratic Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL from Wednesday, October 14 through Monday, October 19, 2015. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily, with a maximum of five callback attempts. Democratic likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide Republican Primary poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL Thursday, Oct. 8 through Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m daily with five callbacks attempted. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Republican likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections' voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Overall, 641 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida participated in the poll. The margin of sampling error of the total sample is +/- 3.87 percentage points.

Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL September 29 through October 8, 2014 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m. Overall, 471 likely Florida voters participated in this poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.74 percentage points. 

Press Release

The UNF Florida Statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by PORL September 30 through October 8, 2013 by live callers via the telephone. Interviews were conducted by UNF undergraduate students from 5 to 9 p.m. in English and Spanish. Overall, 526 registered Florida voters participated in this poll. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.27 percentage points.  

Press Release

The Congressional District 16 poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Sunday, September 30, through Tuesday, October 2, 2018. The sample frame was made up of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 16. Overall, there were 551 completed surveys of likely congressional district 16 voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Embargo for October 4, 2018 - 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

UNF Poll Shows Buchanan Ahead of Shapiro in Florida's Congressional District 16 House RaceMajority of Likely Voters in CD 16 Approve of Trump

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals incumbent Republican Vern Buchanan in the lead for the upcoming U.S. House of Representatives race in Florida's Congressional District 16, with David Shapiro close behind. The survey also shows that a majority of likely voters in Florida's CD 16 approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president.

The poll, comprised of Florida's Congressional District 16 likely voters, shows that 49 percent of respondents plan to vote for Buchanan, the Republican candidate, in the upcoming election for U.S. House of Representatives in Florida's CD 16, while 40 percent plan to vote for the Democratic candidate, David Shapiro.

Of those likely voters, 11 percent don't know who their choice will be. Eighty-two percent of Republican likely voters say they will vote for Buchanan, while 8 percent indicate they'll vote for Shapiro. Eleven percent don't know. Among Democrats, 7 percent indicate they plan to vote for Buchanan and 83 percent for Shapiro; 9 percent don't know where they'll cast their vote. For non-party affiliations and alternative party candidates, Shapiro holds a 9-percentage point lead.

"This historically strong Republican district is closer than it should be," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "In 2016, Buchanan won by almost 20 points, so the fact that this race is within shouting distance for Democrats should give Republicans real concerns when it comes to keeping control of the House of Representatives."

Additionally, 54 percent of likely voters approve of the job that Trump is doing as president, and 45 percent disapprove. Eighty-six percent of Republican likely voters approve of Trump, while 14 percent disapprove. Among Democrats, 12 percent approve of Trump's job performance and 89 percent disapprove.

When asked about the most important problem in the district, environment (22 percent) led the way, followed closely by health care and immigration with 18 percent and 17 percent, respectively. Among Republicans, immigration led as the most important problem in the district at 22 percent, followed by environment at 20 percent. Health care was the most important problem among Democrats (27 percent) followed by environment at 24 percent.

Regarding the recent red tide algae blooms and the environment in general, when asked who they thought would do a better job as congressman on those issues, 40 percent said Buchanan and 37 percent said Shapiro, while 21 percent didn't know. Among Republican likely voters, 67 percent said Buchanan and 11 percent said Shapiro. Twenty-one percent didn't know who would do a better job. Of Democratic likely voters, 7 percent believe Buchanan would do a better job, 76 percent indicated Shapiro and 17 percent didn't know.

"The red tide is impacting a lot of the Florida coast, perhaps nowhere more than this area," Binder noted. "Voters are concerned; this issue is on their minds and driving their votes."

Survey Results

*Due to rounding, some results may total to greater than 100%

Survey Demographics

Methodology

The UNF Florida Statewide Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Sunday, September 30 through Tuesday, October 2, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 p.m. to 9 p.m. on Sunday and 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. during the week.Interviews were conducted in English by PORL interviewers. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' August 8, 2018 update.

The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Florida's 16^th congressional district. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2014 primary election, 2014 general election, 2016 primary election, or any two of these elections - the 2016 presidential preference primary, the 2016 general election or the 2012 general election. All voters who were 22 years of age and younger were included as potentially likely since they were ineligible to vote in enough of the previous elections to qualify as potentially likely. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" or "probably vote" in the upcoming Florida General Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 551 completed surveys of likely voters in Florida's 16 congressional district, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 66 percent (2 percent were unidentified). A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the sample was stratified by county. Quotas were placed on each of the counties to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the district. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2016 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the August 8, 2018 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in the state of Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The UNF Poll of Congressional District 5 was conducted by The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Friday, Aug. 17, through Sunday, Aug. 19, 2018. The sample frame was made up of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 5. Overall, there were 402 completed surveys of likely congressional district 5 Democratic voters, 18 years of age or older. The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Embargo for August 23, 2018, 5 a.m. EST

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Faculty Director

(904) 620-2784

UNF Poll Shows Lawson Leading Brown in Congressional District 5 Democratic Primary

A new poll of likely Democratic voters in Florida's Congressional District 5 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows 48 percent of likely Democratic primary voters said they would vote for incumbent Al Lawson, while 29 percent said they would vote for former Jacksonville mayor Alvin Brown, when asked about the 2018 congressional primary election. The poll reveals 22 percent were undecided.

"Early voting is well underway, Election Day is just a few days away and Lawson has a commanding 19-percentage point lead," said Dr. Michael Binder, UNF PORL faculty director and associate professor of political science. "Brown supporters might point to the large number of undecided voters as potential supporters, but late deciders never swing entirely for one candidate."

Democratic voters across Congressional District 5 have very similar beliefs about the most important problems in the United States-political leadership (approximately 30 percent) and health care (13 percent) top the list. Democratic voters think crime is the most important problem, while only 10 percent of the Western counties think crime is the most important problem.

"Roughly half of Congressional District 5 voters are in Duval County, and even though Brown is ahead by 18 percentage points in Duval, that isn't nearly enough. Lawson is ahead by nearly 60 percentage points in the counties west of Duval," said Binder, noting that the relationship between support for Brown and Lawson and a respondent's support for governor could influence the gubernatorial primary.

Andrew Gillum, current Tallahassee mayor, has plurality support among both Lawson and Brown voters, Binder says. He believes high turnout in this area could propel Gillum to victory on August 28.

For crosstabs by gender, race and education, go to http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

Methodology

The UNF Poll of Congressional District 5 was conducted and sponsored by PORL at the University of North Florida, from Friday, Aug. 17, through Sunday, Aug. 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 4 to 9 p.m. daily.Interviews were conducted in English only by UNF students. The phone numbers used for this survey came from the voter file database provided by the Florida Division of Elections' June 13, 2018, update.

The sample frame was comprised of likely voters who reside in Congressional District 5. Likely voters were determined by vote history, having voted in either the 2014 or 2016 primary elections, all voters who were 18 and 19 years of age were included as likely since they were ineligible to vote in the previous primary. Likely voters, who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote," "probably vote" or had "already voted" in the upcoming Florida Primary Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 402 completed surveys of likely Congressional District 5 Democratic voters, 18 years of age or older.

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 4.9 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 38 to 60 percent (2 percent were unidentified).A single interviewer, through hand dialing, upon reaching the specific registered voter as identified in the Florida voter file, asked the respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. To ensure a representative sample being collected, the district was stratified based on whether the respondent lived in Duval County or outside the area. The total sample was then weighted by age, sex and race (ASR weights) from the total population of likely voters determined by the above criteria. Education weights were determined by computing a high education turnout from the ASR weighted education question and a low education turnout from the 2016 American Community Survey One-Year education data source and establishing a median weight between these two turnout education weights. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Survey Demographic

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

October 13, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.

Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13^th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.

"This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

"Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.

The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Crosstabs

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

Poll in Florida Congressional District 4 shows John Rutherford with a comfortable lead

Press Release

The Florida Congressional District 5 Poll was conducted Monday June 27, through Tuesday June 28, 2016 by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by each county's board of elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 400 registered Democrat likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in either 4 out of the last five statewide elections (Presidential Preference Primary in 2016, Statewide Primary elections in 2012 and 2014 and General Elections in 2012 and 2014). Voters who voted in at least the 2014 Statewide Primary election or were newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 Presidential Preference Primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would "Definitely Vote" or "Probably Vote" in August's primary election. The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent.

Press Release - Florida Congressional District 5