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Press Release for Wednesday, February 20, 2019

New UNF Poll Shows Curry Outpaces Brosche in Mayoral Race

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102


 

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Jacksonville has a new poll of likely voters that reveals Republican incumbent Lenny Curry is in the lead for the upcoming mayoral election in Jacksonville, with Anna Lopez Brosche a distant second. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today.

 

The poll, comprised of likely Jacksonville voters, shows that 52 percent of respondents plan to vote for Curry. Regarding the other mayoral Republican candidates, 15 percent plan to vote for Brosche and 3 percent for Jimmy Hill. Six percent of likely voters plan to vote for Omega Allen, the only candidate without a party affiliation, 3 percent indicated that they would vote for another candidate and 22 percent don't know who their choice will be for mayor.

 

Among Democrats, 25 percent indicate they plan to vote for Curry, 25 percent for Brosche, 12 percent for Allen and 2 percent for Hill. Thirty two percent of Democratic likely voters don't know for whom they'll cast their vote. Of Republican likely voters, 78 percent say they will vote for Curry, while only 4 percent indicate they'll vote for Brosche, 4 percent for Hill and 1 percent for Allen. Thirteen percent don't know.

 

Additionally, the poll shows that 62 percent of likely voters in Jacksonville believe crime is the most important issue facing Jacksonville, followed by education at 13 percent. Of those who believe crime is the most important issue, 58 percent plan to vote for Curry, while 13 percent plan to vote for Brosche. Of likely voters who said education is the most important issue, 51 percent plan to vote for Curry and 14 percent plan to vote for Brosche.

 

"The election is upon us, absentee ballots have been mailed out and early voting begins in less than two weeks," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "It is very late in the game to dramatically change the narrative of these races."

 

When asked who they would vote for in the 2019 election for Jacksonville Sheriff, 56 percent said they would vote for Mike Williams, the incumbent Republican, while 33 percent of likely voters claimed they would vote for Tony Cummings, the Democrat. For the Property Appraiser election, 57 percent indicated they would vote for Jerry Holland, the incumbent Republican, and 28 percent for Kurt Kraft, the Democrat. In the election for Tax Collector, incumbent Republican Jim Overton has 47 percent, followed by Democrat John R. Crescimbeni at 35 percent.

 

In the Jacksonville City Council At Large elections, there was at great deal of variation. For At Large Group 1, Lisa King, the Democrat, is ahead with 32 percent, followed by the Republican candidates: Jack Daniels, Terrance Freeman and Gary Barrett, with 10 percent, 5 percent, and 5 percent, respectively. A large number of likely voters-45 percent-don't know who they will vote for. In At Large Group 2, 36 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Republican Ron Salem and 35 percent for Democrat Darren Mason, with 29 percent undecided.

 

In the election for At Large Group 3, incumbent Democrat Tommy Hazouri is ahead with 38 percent, followed by Republican Greg Rachal at 26 percent. The other Democrat, James C. Jacobs, has 12 percent, and 25 percent don't know. At Large Group 4's candidates are all Republicans, with Matt Carlucci at 43 percent, Don Redman at 14 percent and Harold McCart at 3 percent of likely voters. Forty percent don't know who they will vote for. In At Large Group 5, 31 percent of likely voters indicated they would vote for Samuel Newby, the incumbent Republican, followed by Chad Evan McIntyre, the Democrat with 29 percent. The candidate with no party affiliation, Niki Brunson, is at 6 percent and 34 percent don't know.

 

"All of the races, and especially the At Large Council seats, have large proportions of "don't know" responses," Binder noted. "Also, it's important to remember for races with multiple candidates, if nobody gets to 50 percent, there will be a runoff for the top two candidates in May."

Survey Results

If the 2019 election for Mayor of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=912
Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 6%
Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 15%
Lenny Curry, Republican 52%
Jimmy Hill, Republican 3%
Write-In 3%
Don't Know 22%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=393 Republican Likely Voters n=440
Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 12% 1%
Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 25% 4%
Lenny Curry, Republican 25% 78%
Jimmy Hill, Republican 1% 4%
Don't Know 32% 13%

 

In your opinion, what do you think is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today? (Choices Rotated)
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=958
Education 13%
Economy 5%
Access to Health Care 6%
Crime 62%
Downtown Redevelopment 6%
Tax Burden 1%
Access to Public Transportation 1%
Improving the Environment 3%
Something Else 3%
Don't Know 1%

 

In your opinion, vote choice by what do you think is the most important issue facing Jacksonville today?
Answer Options Crime n=566 Education n=118
Omega Allen, No Party Affiliation 5% 7%
Anna Lopez Brosche, Republican 13% 14%
Lenny Curry, Republican 58% 51%
Jimmy Hill, Republican 3% 3%

 

If the 2019 election for Sheriff of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=941
Tony Cummings, Democrat 33%
Mike Williams, Republican 56%
Don't Know 11%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=414 Republican Likely Voters n=447
Tony Cummings, Democrat 66% 4%
Mike Williams, Republican 19% 90%
Don't Know 15% 6%

 

If the 2019 election for Property Appraiser of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=941
Jerry Holland, Republican 57%
Kurt Kraft, Democrat 28%
Don't Know 15%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=415 Republican Likely Voters n=446
Jerry Holland, Republican 26% 86%
Kurt Kraft, Democrat 58% 2%
Don't Know 16% 11%

 

If the 2019 election for Tax Collector of Jacksonville were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=936
John R. Crescimbeni, Democrat 35%
Jim Overton, Republican 47%
Don't Know 18%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=411 Republican Likely Voters n=445
John R. Crescimbeni, Democrat 66% 7%
Jim Overton, Republican 14% 78%
Don't Know 20% 14%

 

If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 1 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=913
Gary Barrett, Republican 5%
Connell A. Crooms, No Party Affiliation 4%
Jack Daniels, Republican 10%
Terrance Freeman, Republican 5%
Lisa King, Democrat 32%
Don't Know 45%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=429
Gary Bennett, Republican 1% 9%
Connell A. Crooms, No Party Affiliation 5% 1%
Jack Daniels, Republican 2% 17%
Terrance Freeman, Republican 2% 7%
Lisa King, Democrat 65% 2%
Don't Know 27% 63%

 

If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 2 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=919
Darren Mason, Democrat 35%
Ron Salem, Republican 36%
Don't Know 29%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=406 Republican Likely Voters n=435
Darren Mason, Democrat 70% 3%
Ron Salem, Republican 8% 64%
Don't Know 21% 33%

 

If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 3 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=925
Tommy Hazouri, Democrat 38%
James C. Jacobs, Democrat 12%
Greg Rachal, Republican 26%
Don't Know 25%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=439
Tommy Hazouri, Democrat 46% 30%
James C. Jacobs, Democrat 23% 1%
Greg Rachal, Republican 5% 45%
Don't Know 26% 24%

 

If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large Group 4 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=854
Matt Carlucci, Republican 43%
Harold McCart, Republican 3%
Don Redman, Republican 14%
Don't Know 40%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=332 Republican Likely Voters n=445
Matt Carlucci, Republican 36% 48%
Harold McCart, Republican 3% 3%
Don Redman, Republican 14% 15%
Don't Know 47% 35%

 

If the 2019 election for Jacksonville City Council At Large - Group 5 were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answer Options Jacksonville Likely Voters n=920
Niki Brunson, No Party Affiliation 6%
Chad Evan McIntyre, Democrat 29%
Samuel Newby, Republican 31%
Don't Know 34%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters n=408 Republican Likely Voters n=434
Niki Brunson, No Party Affiliation 7% 4%
Chad Evan McIntyre, Democrat 60% 2%
Samuel Newby, Republican 6% 57%
Don't Know 28% 38%

Survey Demographics

Party
Party Registration Jacksonville Voters n=962
Democrat 44%
Republican 48%
NPA and other 8%

 

Age
Age Jacksonville Voters n=962
18 to 24 2%
25 to 34 7%
35 to 44 11%
45 to 55 19%
56 to 64 24%
65 and older 37%

 

Race
Race Jacksonville Likely Voters n=962
White (not Hispanic) 70%
Black (not Hispanic) 23%
Hispanic 2%
Other 5%

 

Sex
Sex Jacksonville Likely Voters n=962
Male 45%
Female 55%

 

Phone Type
Telephone Jacksonville Likely Voters n=955
Landline 28%
Cell phone 72%

 

What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
Education Jacksonville Likely Voters n=954
Less than high school 2%
High school graduate 19%
Some college 47%
College graduate 19%
Post graduate degree 12%
Don't Know <1%

Methodology

The UNF Jax Speaks Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Saturday, February 16, through Tuesday, February 19, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 1 to 9 p.m. Saturday and Sunday and from 5 to 9 p.m. Monday and Tuesday, with a maximum of 5 callbacks attempted. Interviews were conducted in English by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. Answer choices were ordered on the survey instrument in the order that they appear on the election ballot.

 

The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Jacksonville. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any of the following elections: 2015 First Election, 2015 General Election or in both the 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming 2019 First Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 962 completed surveys of likely Jacksonville voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.1 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 28 to 72.Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race, age, and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race, and age weights were created from the January 9, 2019 update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in Duval County. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 29 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

 

-UNF-