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Press Release for Wednesday, March 9, 2016

UNF Poll Reveals Trump Leads in Florida Republican Presidential Primary Race

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director
Department of Public Relations
(904) 620-2102

A new University of North Florida statewide poll of likely Republican primary voters reveals that if the Florida Republican presidential primary were held today, Donald Trump would garner 35.5 percent of the votes through the Sunshine State.

The poll also reveals Marco Rubio would place second with 23.8 percent, while Ted Cruz would be in third place with 15.5 percent and John Kasich in a distant fourth place with 8.8 percent. When asked who their second choice would be, 25.8 percent selected Cruz and 22.1 percent chose Rubio, while 16.7 percent chose Kasich and 11.4 percent selected Trump.

When asked how they would vote if the 2016 presidential election were held today and if the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, the overwhelming majority (74 percent) of likely Republican primary voters would vote for Trump. Interestingly, 7.4 percent of likely Republican primary voters said they would choose Clinton, while 9.6 percent of respondents said they wouldn’t vote at all, which highlights fears among Republicans that Trump may split the party come November.

When asked what’s the most important problem facing the U.S. today, 38.4 percent of likely Republican presidential primary voters think it’s the economy, jobs or unemployment. For 21.1 percent of respondents, terrorism is the most important problem and 10.6 percent chose immigration.

For likely Republican presidential primary voters, 62 percent strongly or somewhat agree with the statement, “The Republican Party cares about people such as yourself” and 34.3 percent strongly or somewhat disagreed. Of the respondents who strongly or somewhat disagreed with that statement, 42.8 percent said they would vote for Trump; however, he also leads among those who strongly or somewhat agree with that statement, as Trump garners 32.4 percent of those voters compared to Rubio, who only has 29.5 percent of those votes.

Rubio is receiving stronger support from Cubans (56.8 percent) than the rest of the Hispanic/Latino community (33.5 percent), and he’s leading Trump across both groups (13 percent among Cubans and 30.7 percent among other Hispanics/Latinos).

Among likely Republican primary voters, 64.4 percent have a favorable opinion about Rubio and 30 percent have an unfavorable opinion and 61.6 percent have a favorable opinion about Cruz and 32.6 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Fifty-five percent have a favorable opinion about Trump and 39.4 percent have an unfavorable opinion, showing that Trump has more detractors within the likely Republican electorate than the other leading candidates. Of the Democratic candidates, Bernie Sanders is viewed slightly more favorably (17.2 percent) than Clinton (5.6 percent).

The UNF Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL), through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory on campus, conducted the telephone survey using live interviewers calling both landlines and cell phones. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs. Since its opening in March of 2001, the PORL has conducted over 120 research projects, which include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys. The PORL is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

Approximately 120 UNF students participated in the data collection. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) likely Republican primary voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 70 percent of recent statewide elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Newly registered voters that haven’t had the opportunity to vote in a statewide election were also included in the sample. Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household and were screened on whether or not they planned to vote in Florida Republican primary.

For non-completes with a working residential or cell phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. Of completed surveys, there were 60 percent landlines and 39 percent cell phones. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from Wednesday, March 2, through Monday, March 7, and include 752 adult registered Republican likely voters in Florida, with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.57 percent. Stratified sampling, using the 10 designated market areas in Florida as sub groups, was used for geographical representation. Quotas were placed on each sub group to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. The total sample was weighted by age, gender, and race to reflect the adult Republican primary likely voter population in Florida.

For further information on this project, visit www.unf.edu/coas/porl/. If there are any questions about the methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF assistant professor of political science, at (904) 620-1205 or at m.binder@unf.edu.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

Spring Statewide 2016 Toplines

Ask All:
All choices read to respondent except for “Don’t Know” and “No Answer” and otherwise noted by “Volunteer (Vol)”.
Q3. If the Republican primary for president were being held today, for whom would you vote? [Randomize 1-2] [All choices read to respondent]
Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (March 2016) n=752 Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (October 2015) n=641
Ted Cruz 15.5% 6.8%
John Kasich 8.8% 3.5%
Marco Rubio 23.8% 14.9%
Donald Trump 35.5% 21.7%
Someone else 2.6% 41%
Don’t Know/No Answer (vol) 14.3% 12.1%

Q3b. Who would be your second choice?
Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (March 2016) n=601 Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (October 2015) n=641
Ted Cruz 25.8% 6.2%
John Kasich 16.7% 3.3%
Marco Rubio 22.1% 20.1%
Donald Trump 11.4% 6.2%
Someone else 4.1% 1.4%
Don’t Know/No Answer (vol) 20% 19.2%

First choice and Second choice

Second Choice Ted Cruz
(First Choice) John Kasich
(First Choice) Marco Rubio
(First Choice) Donald Trump
(First Choice)
Ted Cruz -- 16.7% 50.1% 31.8%
John Kasich 8.4% -- 26.2% 22.4%
Marco Rubio 54.1% 29.7% -- 23.1%
Donald Trump 27.9% 24.8% 10.7% --
Someone else (Vol) 1.4% 10.6% 1.1% 5.2%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 7.2% 16.4% 11% 14.1%



Q3c. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump?
Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (March 2016) n=752
Hillary Clinton 7.4%
Donald Trump 74%
Would Not Vote (vol) 9.6%
Don’t Know/ No Answer (vol) 8.9%

Q1. What do you think is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?
[Randomize 1-8, All choices read to respondent]

Likely Republican
Presidential Primary Voters
(March 2016) n=752 Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters (October 2015) n=641
Economy/ Jobs or Unemployment 38.4% 35.4%
Terrorism 21.1% 18.1%
Immigration 10.6% 13.5%
Healthcare 5.6% 4.9%
Social Security 4.3% 3.7%
Education 3.5% 5.4%
Political Leadership (Vol) 2.8% 5.4%
Environment 2.4% 1.8%
Morality/Values 1.6% 2.4%
National Security (Vol) 1.5% 2.1%
National Debt (Vol) 1.2% 2%
Crime (Vol) <1% -
Something Else (Vol) 4% 3.6%
Don’t Know/ No Answer (Vol) 2.9% 1.4%

Q4. “Public officials don't care much what people such as yourself think.” Do you:
Likely Republican Presidential
Primary Voters
(March 2016) n=752
Strongly Agree 41.5%
Somewhat Agree 35.7%
Somewhat Disagree 14.6%
Strongly Agree 6.7%
Don’t Know (Vol) 1.2%
No Answer (Vol) <1%


Q5. “People such as yourself don’t have any say about what the government does.” Do you:
Likely Republican Presidential
Primary Voters
(March 2016) n=752
Strongly Agree 38.3%
Somewhat Agree 28.9%
Somewhat Disagree 18.4%
Strongly Agree 12.6%
Don’t Know (Vol) 1.8%
No Answer (Vol) <1%

Q6. “The Republican party cares about people such as yourself” Do you:
Likely Republican Presidential
Primary Voters
(March 2016) n=752
Strongly Agree 19.1%
Somewhat Agree 42.9%
Somewhat Disagree 15.9%
Strongly Agree 18.4%
Don’t Know (Vol) 3.2%
No Answer (Vol) <1%


“Please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people—or if you have never heard of them”
Favorable Unfavorable Never heard of him/her
Ted Cruz 61.6% 32.6% <1%
Marco Rubio 64.4% 30% <1%
Donald Trump 55% 39.4% <1%
Hillary Clinton 5.6% 93% <1%
Bernie Sanders 17.2% 78.6% 1.5%


Ideology
Likely Republican Presidential
Primary Voters
(March 2016) n=752
Very Liberal <1%
Slightly Liberal 2.8%
Moderate/Middle of the Road 18.5%
Slightly Conservative 29.3%
Very Conservative 46.9%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 1.8%

Of Likely Republican Presidential Primary Voters:
“The Republican party cares about people such as yourself” and Vote Choice
Strongly Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Strongly Disagree
Ted Cruz 12.5% 17% 15.1% 17.6%
John Kasich 5% 7.6% 5.9% 13.1%
Marco Rubio 31.4% 28.7% 19.4% 6.8%
Donald Trump 33.9% 31.8% 43.7% 41.9%
Someone Else 5.2% 1.2% 1.9% 4.2%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 12% 13.8% 14% 16.4%

Ideology and Vote Choice
Very and Somewhat Liberal Moderate/Middle of the Road Somewhat Conservative Very Conservative
Ted Cruz 11.4% 3.8% 10.9% 23.9%
John Kasich 14.3% 14.2% 10.5% 3.6%
Marco Rubio 13.7% 16.7% 31.2% 23%
Donald Trump 36.5% 36.8% 34.8% 35.4%
Someone Else 15.9% 3.1% 2.1% 1.9%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 8.3% 25.5% 10.5% 12.3%


Vote Choice and Race
White/Caucasian Hispanic/Latino
Ted Cruz 16.1% 11.4%
John Kasich 8.7% 5.8%
Marco Rubio 21.2% 45.9%
Donald Trump 37.3% 21.7%
Someone Else 2.5% 2.2%
Don’t Know/ No Answer (Vol) 14.4% 12.9%

Vote Choice among Hispanic/Latinos
Cuban Non-Cuban
Ted Cruz 12% 11.5%
John Kasich 2.6% 10%
Marco Rubio 56.8% 33.5%
Donald Trump 13% 30.7%
Someone Else 2.5% 2%
Don’t Know/ No Answer (Vol) 13.1% 12.4%

Vote Choice and Age

Under 44 45-54 55-64 65 and over
Ted Cruz 12.1% 24.7% 18.3% 13.1%
John Kasich 7.8% 2.7% 8.5% 9.4%
Marco Rubio 24.4% 28.2% 18% 24.9%
Donald Trump 29.4% 31.9% 34.8% 37.4%
Someone else 4.7% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 21.6% 8.9% 17.8% 13%

Vote Choice and Gender
Women Men
Ted Cruz 15.6% 15.4%
John Kasich 9.1% 7.4%
Marco Rubio 26.5% 21%
Donald Trump 31% 40.1%
Someone else 2.3% 3%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 15.4% 13.1%


Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States? You can just tell me the number of your choice.
White/Caucasian
Likely Republican Primary Voters
Hispanic/Latino
Likely Republican Primary Voters
Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 15.4% 13.1%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 23.5% 14.8%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 13.6% 12.6%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 34.1% 41.9%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 5.3% 10.8%
Don’t Know (Vol) 5.1% 3.8%
No Answer (Vol) 3% 3.1%

Immigration of Undocumented Immigrants and Vote Choice

Make felons and send back to home country Stay for limited time as guest worker Stay in US for unlimited time as guest worker Stay in US and eventually qualify for citizenship after paying fees/back taxes Stay in US and eventually qualify for citizenship without penalty
Ted Cruz 21.6% 20.4% 14.6% 13.6% 3.7%
John Kasich <1% 4.5% 8.8% 13.6% 12.9%
Marco Rubio 12.9% 22.5% 37% 24.9% 29%
Donald Trump 52.5% 39.1% 27.1% 29% 28.7%
Someone else 2.2% 1.3% 1.4% 2.8% 9.7%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 10.7% 12.2% 11.1% 16.1% 16.1%

Education and Vote Choice

What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?

Less than high school degree High school graduate Some college College graduate Post graduate
Ted Cruz 5.4% 17.2% 15.3% 17.8% 12.9%
John Kasich 0% 4.8% 7.1% 10.3% 9.3%
Marco Rubio 35.7% 20.3% 18.5% 28% 27.7%
Donald Trump 29.6% 44% 43.6% 28.3% 28.1%
Someone else 5% 1.8% 3.1% 1.3% 4.9%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 24.2% 11.8% 12.3% 14.3% 17.1%

Income and Vote Choice

What is your annual household income?

Less than $25,000 $25,000 to $50,000 $50,000 to $75,000 $75,000 to $100,000 Above $100,000
Ted Cruz 9.5% 17.2% 15.3% 17.8% 12.9%
John Kasich 5.6% 4.8% 7.1% 10.3% 9.3%
Marco Rubio 31.6% 20.3% 18.5% 28% 27.7%
Donald Trump 36.2% 44% 43.6% 28.3% 28.1%
Someone else 2.3% 1.8% 3.1% 1.3% 4.9%
Don’t Know/No Answer (Vol) 14.8% 11.8% 12.3% 14.3% 17.1%

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

 



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