Skip to Main Content

Press Release for Thursday, June 30, 2016

Corrine Brown Shows Slim Lead in New Florida Congressional District 5 Poll

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

Jacksonville, Fla. – A new poll of likely Democrat voters in Congressional District 5 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that, despite allegations of ethical misconduct and a federal criminal investigation, incumbent Corrine Brown holds a slight lead with 30 percent. Al Lawson is closing in with 27 percent and LaShonda Holloway is a distant third with 4 percent, while 40 percent of likely voters are still unsure. This is a new version of Congressional District 5, which was recently reconfigured and the subject of a prolonged legal battle. 

  

"Brown's new congressional district has her locked in a tight battle with former state Sen. Al Lawson. She still has a slight lead, which is good for the congresswoman at this point," said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director.  

  

Respondents were asked for whom would they vote if the Democratic Primary election for the US House of Representatives were being held today.  

 

Candidate

Democrat Likely Voters

Duval County Portion

Counties West of Duval*

Corrine Brown

30%

52%

14%

Al Lawson

27%

8%

40%

LaShonda Holloway

4%

5%

3%

Don't Know/No Answer

40%

35%

43%

Column totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. Candidate names rotated. Sample n=400. 

*Congressional District 5 counties west of Duval: All of Baker, Gadsden, Hamilton, and Madison. Portions of Columbia, Jefferson and Leon. 

  

"Two things will determine the winner of this race. First, will be the candidates' ability to convince voters who are uncertain at this point. Half of the district is new to Brown, so she will have to introduce herself to areas west of Duval. Lawson, having been out of office for the last six years, will have to reintroduce himself to his constituents around Tallahassee and to new constituents running east into Duval," said Binder. 

  

"Secondly, getting voters to turn out is going to be crucial. Brown and Lawson have large leads in their home areas. If Brown can mobilize Duval voters, she can win this race. However, if Duval voters don’t turn out in large numbers, Lawson has a path to victory." 

  

Vote Choice Differences Between Races and Genders

  

"Although all three candidates are black, there are sharp differences in candidate support by race," said Binder. Brown holds a 15-point edge among black voters and Lawson holds a 19 point advantage among white voters. Interestingly, more than 60 percent of white voters are unsure how they will vote in August. This group could very easily swing the election."  

  

Vote Choice by Race  – Congressional District 5

Candidate

Democrat Likely Voters White

Democrat Likely Voters Black

Corrine Brown

7%

41%

Al Lawson

26%

27%

LaShonda Holloway

6%

3%

Don't Know/No Answer

61%

29%

Column totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. Sample n=400. 

  

"Looking at gender, Brown has an edge among women, which is bolstered by the disproportionate amount of women who are likely to vote," said Binder.  

 

Vote Choice by Gender  – Congressional District 5

Candidate

Democrat Likely Voters
Men

Democrat Likely Voters
Women

Corrine Brown

27%

31%

Al Lawson

32%

23%

LaShonda Holloway

2%

5%

Don't Know/No Answer

39%

40%

Column totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. Sample n=400.

 

Methodology 

The Florida Congressional District 5 Poll was conducted Monday, June 27, through Tuesday, June 28, by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by each county’s board of elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 400 registered Democrat likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in either four out of the last five statewide elections (presidential preference primary in 2016, statewide primary elections in 2012 and 2014 and general elections in 2012 and 2014). Voters who voted in at least the 2014 statewide primary election or were newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would "Definitely Vote" or "Probably Vote" in August’s primary election.   

  

The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 50 to 48 percent with 2 percent unknown. The sample had quota for partisanship and geography and was weighted to race and gender statistics for the likely voter profile of the district. This survey was sponsored by the PORL at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784. PDF version; website: https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

  

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.  

 

-UNF-