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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of December 2, 2017 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 61 violations out of 735 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 8.30%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 91.70% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 66 violations out of 735 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 8.98%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Florida St
33
40
88.57%
88.57%
0.89
Northwestern
11
17
88.01%
88.01%
0.88
Florida Atlantic
60
59
86.58%
86.58%
0.87
Utah St
83
83
81.13%
81.13%
0.81
Troy
42
14
79.62%
79.62%
0.80
Michigan
17
21
75.75%
75.75%
0.76
Temple
37
57
73.86%
73.86%
0.74
Ohio U.
85
85
73.71%
73.71%
0.74
Duke
68
69
73.19%
73.19%
0.73
North Carolina St
23
24
69.15%
69.15%
0.69
Arkansas St
90
90
69.13%
69.13%
0.69
San Diego St
42
11
67.67%
67.67%
0.68
Texas
21
32
65.94%
65.94%
0.66
Toledo
58
55
65.07%
65.07%
0.65
SMU
61
61
63.79%
63.79%
0.64
Navy
38
58
63.45%
63.45%
1.22
Purdue
26
27
63.42%
63.42%
0.63
Houston
35
42
63.40%
63.40%
0.63
Colorado St
82
82
62.41%
62.41%
0.62
Kansas St
30
37
62.12%
62.12%
0.62
Auburn
4
4
62.00%
62.00%
0.62
Ohio State
2
2
61.93%
61.93%
0.62
Western Kentucky
96
96
60.90%
60.90%
0.61
Iowa
28
29
60.08%
60.08%
0.60
Memphis
32
39
59.33%
59.33%
0.59
Utah
49
34
57.63%
57.63%
0.58
Oregon
48
33
56.59%
56.59%
0.57
Oklahoma St
9
9
56.56%
56.56%
0.57
Louisville
25
25
56.14%
56.14%
0.56
Washington St
11
10
54.82%
54.82%
0.55
Texas Tech
34
41
53.36%
53.36%
0.53
Penn State
16
20
53.23%
53.23%
0.53
TCU
8
8
52.60%
52.60%
0.53
Wisconsin
7
7
52.27%
52.27%
0.52
Central Michigan
75
75
52.07%
52.07%
0.52
Clemson
3
3
50.78%
50.78%
0.51
LSU
44
15
50.71%
50.71%
0.51
Oklahoma
1
1
50.28%
50.28%
0.50
Wake Forest
22
23
50.18%
50.18%
0.50
Texas A&M
52
46
49.82%
49.82%
0.50
Georgia
6
6
49.72%
49.72%
0.50
Notre Dame
11
17
49.29%
49.29%
0.49
Alabama
5
5
49.22%
49.22%
0.49
Wyoming
80
80
47.93%
47.93%
0.48
Miami FL
10
16
47.73%
47.73%
0.48
Stanford
44
13
47.40%
47.40%
0.47
Washington
47
27
46.77%
46.77%
0.47
South Florida
36
43
46.64%
46.64%
0.47
Michigan St
14
19
45.18%
45.18%
0.45
Mississippi St
26
50
43.86%
43.86%
0.44
Virginia Tech
18
22
43.44%
43.44%
0.43
Boise St
41
61
43.42%
43.42%
0.43
West Virginia
29
36
42.37%
42.37%
0.42
Iowa St
31
38
40.67%
40.67%
0.41
Boston College
24
35
39.92%
39.92%
0.40
Georgia St
118
118
39.10%
39.10%
0.39
Southern Cal
14
11
38.07%
38.07%
0.38
Central Florida
19
30
38.00%
38.00%
0.38
UCLA
51
45
37.88%
37.88%
0.38
Marshall
93
93
37.59%
37.59%
0.38
Fresno St
74
74
36.60%
36.60%
0.37
Arizona
50
43
36.58%
36.58%
0.37
Virginia
40
59
36.55%
36.55%
0.37
Louisiana Tech
88
88
36.21%
36.21%
0.36
Appalachian St
108
108
34.93%
34.93%
0.35
Missouri
58
53
34.06%
34.06%
0.34
Army
66
66
32.33%
32.33%
0.74
Middle Tennessee St
97
97
30.87%
30.87%
0.31
Arizona St
46
25
30.85%
30.85%
0.31
Northern Illinois
76
76
26.81%
26.81%
0.27
Alabama-Birmingham
86
86
26.29%
26.29%
0.26
Florida Int'l
61
61
26.14%
26.14%
0.26
South Carolina
57
52
24.25%
24.25%
0.24
North Texas
63
64
20.38%
20.38%
0.20
New Mexico St
109
109
18.87%
18.87%
0.19
Akron
76
76
13.42%
13.42%
0.13
Kentucky
56
51
11.99%
11.99%
0.12
Southern Miss
87
87
11.43%
11.43%
0.11
Maryland
20
31
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado
53
46
N/A
100.0%
0.00
California
54
48
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi
55
49
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Indiana
38
54
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida
63
56
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulane
63
64
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Minnesota
72
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Vanderbilt
66
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tennessee
68
69
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Tech
70
71
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina
71
72
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas
73
73
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nebraska
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Western Michigan
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Air Force
81
81
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Buffalo
84
84
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Eastern Michigan
88
88
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rutgers
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas-San Antonio
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Baylor
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Illinois
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Syracuse
98
98
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Pittsburgh
99
99
N/A
100.0%
0.00
East Carolina
100
100
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Brigham Young
101
101
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nevada
102
102
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNLV
103
103
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Hawai`i
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Old Dominion
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Monroe
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Massachusetts
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Cincinnati
109
109
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Connecticut
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulsa
113
113
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Bowling Green
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kent St
115
115
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Miami OH
116
116
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon St
117
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Coastal Carolina
119
119
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Southern
120
120
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Lafayette
121
121
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Idaho
122
122
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas
123
123
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Alabama
124
124
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rice
125
125
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNC-Charlotte
126
126
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ball St
127
127
N/A
100.0%
0.00
San José St
128
128
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas St-San Marcos
129
129
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UTEP
130
130
N/A
100.0%
0.00


This page last updated on December 11, 2017 at 1:51 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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