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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of December 2, 2017 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 61 violations out of 735 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 8.30%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 91.70% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 66 violations out of 735 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 8.98%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Air Force
81
81
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Akron
76
76
13.42%
13.42%
0.13
Alabama
5
5
49.22%
49.22%
0.49
Alabama-Birmingham
86
86
26.29%
26.29%
0.26
Appalachian St
108
108
34.93%
34.93%
0.35
Arizona
50
43
36.58%
36.58%
0.37
Arizona St
46
25
30.85%
30.85%
0.31
Arkansas
73
73
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas St
90
90
69.13%
69.13%
0.69
Army
66
66
32.33%
32.33%
0.74
Auburn
4
4
62.00%
62.00%
0.62
Ball St
127
127
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Baylor
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Boise St
41
61
43.42%
43.42%
0.43
Boston College
24
35
39.92%
39.92%
0.40
Bowling Green
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Brigham Young
101
101
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Buffalo
84
84
N/A
100.0%
0.00
California
54
48
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Central Florida
19
30
38.00%
38.00%
0.38
Central Michigan
75
75
52.07%
52.07%
0.52
Cincinnati
109
109
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Clemson
3
3
50.78%
50.78%
0.51
Coastal Carolina
119
119
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado
53
46
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado St
82
82
62.41%
62.41%
0.62
Connecticut
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Duke
68
69
73.19%
73.19%
0.73
East Carolina
100
100
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Eastern Michigan
88
88
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida
63
56
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Florida Atlantic
60
59
86.58%
86.58%
0.87
Florida Int'l
61
61
26.14%
26.14%
0.26
Florida St
33
40
88.57%
88.57%
0.89
Fresno St
74
74
36.60%
36.60%
0.37
Georgia
6
6
49.72%
49.72%
0.50
Georgia Southern
120
120
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia St
118
118
39.10%
39.10%
0.39
Georgia Tech
70
71
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Hawai`i
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Houston
35
42
63.40%
63.40%
0.63
Idaho
122
122
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Illinois
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Indiana
38
54
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Iowa
28
29
60.08%
60.08%
0.60
Iowa St
31
38
40.67%
40.67%
0.41
Kansas
123
123
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas St
30
37
62.12%
62.12%
0.62
Kent St
115
115
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kentucky
56
51
11.99%
11.99%
0.12
LSU
44
15
50.71%
50.71%
0.51
Louisiana Tech
88
88
36.21%
36.21%
0.36
Louisiana-Lafayette
121
121
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Monroe
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisville
25
25
56.14%
56.14%
0.56
Marshall
93
93
37.59%
37.59%
0.38
Maryland
20
31
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Massachusetts
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Memphis
32
39
59.33%
59.33%
0.59
Miami FL
10
16
47.73%
47.73%
0.48
Miami OH
116
116
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Michigan
17
21
75.75%
75.75%
0.76
Michigan St
14
19
45.18%
45.18%
0.45
Middle Tennessee St
97
97
30.87%
30.87%
0.31
Minnesota
72
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi
55
49
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi St
26
50
43.86%
43.86%
0.44
Missouri
58
53
34.06%
34.06%
0.34
Navy
38
58
63.45%
63.45%
1.22
Nebraska
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nevada
102
102
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico St
109
109
18.87%
18.87%
0.19
North Carolina
71
72
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina St
23
24
69.15%
69.15%
0.69
North Texas
63
64
20.38%
20.38%
0.20
Northern Illinois
76
76
26.81%
26.81%
0.27
Northwestern
11
17
88.01%
88.01%
0.88
Notre Dame
11
17
49.29%
49.29%
0.49
Ohio State
2
2
61.93%
61.93%
0.62
Ohio U.
85
85
73.71%
73.71%
0.74
Oklahoma
1
1
50.28%
50.28%
0.50
Oklahoma St
9
9
56.56%
56.56%
0.57
Old Dominion
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon
48
33
56.59%
56.59%
0.57
Oregon St
117
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Penn State
16
20
53.23%
53.23%
0.53
Pittsburgh
99
99
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Purdue
26
27
63.42%
63.42%
0.63
Rice
125
125
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rutgers
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
SMU
61
61
63.79%
63.79%
0.64
San Diego St
42
11
67.67%
67.67%
0.68
San Josť St
128
128
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Alabama
124
124
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Carolina
57
52
24.25%
24.25%
0.24
South Florida
36
43
46.64%
46.64%
0.47
Southern Cal
14
11
38.07%
38.07%
0.38
Southern Miss
87
87
11.43%
11.43%
0.11
Stanford
44
13
47.40%
47.40%
0.47
Syracuse
98
98
N/A
100.0%
0.00
TCU
8
8
52.60%
52.60%
0.53
Temple
37
57
73.86%
73.86%
0.74
Tennessee
68
69
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas
21
32
65.94%
65.94%
0.66
Texas A&M
52
46
49.82%
49.82%
0.50
Texas St-San Marcos
129
129
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas Tech
34
41
53.36%
53.36%
0.53
Texas-San Antonio
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Toledo
58
55
65.07%
65.07%
0.65
Troy
42
14
79.62%
79.62%
0.80
Tulane
63
64
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulsa
113
113
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UCLA
51
45
37.88%
37.88%
0.38
UNC-Charlotte
126
126
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNLV
103
103
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UTEP
130
130
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Utah
49
34
57.63%
57.63%
0.58
Utah St
83
83
81.13%
81.13%
0.81
Vanderbilt
66
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Virginia
40
59
36.55%
36.55%
0.37
Virginia Tech
18
22
43.44%
43.44%
0.43
Wake Forest
22
23
50.18%
50.18%
0.50
Washington
47
27
46.77%
46.77%
0.47
Washington St
11
10
54.82%
54.82%
0.55
West Virginia
29
36
42.37%
42.37%
0.42
Western Kentucky
96
96
60.90%
60.90%
0.61
Western Michigan
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Wisconsin
7
7
52.27%
52.27%
0.52
Wyoming
80
80
47.93%
47.93%
0.48


This page last updated on December 11, 2017 at 1:51 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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