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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings |
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Performance
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Below is an assessment of the ranking systems posted on Kenneth Massey's ranking compilation page for this season. Using a simple form of Data Envelopment Analysis and software from Holger Scheel, each system is given an efficiency score representing how close its combined retrodictive and predictive performance is to the efficient frontier. Retrodictive performance is measured by the number of past head-to-head results that were correctly matched by the weekly ranking (the first number in the "Retrodictive" column below), while predictive performance is measured by the number of games in the following week that were correctly predicted (the first number in the "Predictive" column below). If one were to plot each system's performance, with retrodictive performance on one axis and predictive performance on the other, the efficient frontier would be formed by the most extreme systems in all possible directions. The efficient frontier approach is an arguably fair way to compare ranking systems regardless of whether they focus on retrodictive or predictive performance (or some combination thereof). The approach determines the implicit weight that a system places on each objective, and uses these weights (shown in parenthese below) to determine the appropriate comparison point on the efficient frontier. Each system is thus evaluated only against peers with a similar combination of objectives. Any system with 100% efficiency is on the efficient frontier, meaning that if the weights noted for that system are applied, no other system surpasses it. If a system has an efficiency less than 100%, then even if the weights noted for the system are applied, there is at least one other system (or a linear combination of other systems) whose performance is better. Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header. Results shown are for games on or before December 2, 2017 using rankings posted through the games of the respective preceding week. Note that the system abbreviations are the same as those used by Massey, who denotes the MinV ranking as "CMV" and the MVP ranking as "MVP." |
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Full Season Last Week
Rnk System Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive
1 CMV 100.0% 4577 (.950) 536 (.050) 100.0% 662 (1.00) 11 (.000)
2 RTB 93.31% 4271 (1.00) 359 (.000) 99.43% 657 (.750) 11 (.250)
3 MCK 80.10% 3666 (1.00) 294 (.000) 94.71% 627 (1.00) 10 (.000)
4 WIL 86.32% 3951 (1.00) 363 (.000) 97.23% 597 (.690) 13 (.310)
5 SOR 82.57% 3583 (.090) 445 (.910) 97.12% 596 (.690) 13 (.310)
6 BIH 86.02% 3937 (1.00) 367 (.000) 97.00% 595 (.690) 13 (.310)
7 EZ 81.21% 3717 (1.00) 327 (.000) 97.00% 595 (.690) 13 (.310)
8 AND 54.95% 2515 (1.00) 178 (.000) 97.00% 595 (.690) 13 (.310)
9 KRA 36.12% 1653 (1.00) 97 (.000) 97.00% 595 (.690) 13 (.310)
10 RTP 95.34% 4125 (.090) 514 (.910) 92.31% 594 (.730) 11 (.270)
11 ABC 81.12% 3713 (1.00) 331 (.000) 96.78% 593 (.690) 13 (.310)
12 WOB 35.83% 1640 (1.00) 95 (.000) 96.78% 593 (.690) 13 (.310)
13 PGH 95.83% 4198 (.090) 516 (.910) 96.67% 592 (.690) 13 (.310)
14 ISR 80.84% 3700 (1.00) 328 (.000) 96.67% 592 (.690) 13 (.310)
15 WOL 69.87% 3198 (1.00) 258 (.000) 96.67% 592 (.690) 13 (.310)
16 RTH 69.83% 3196 (1.00) 257 (.000) 96.55% 591 (.690) 13 (.310)
17 PCP 84.51% 3868 (1.00) 375 (.000) 91.98% 591 (.730) 11 (.270)
18 DOL 88.60% 4055 (1.00) 399 (.000) 96.44% 590 (.690) 13 (.310)
19 VRN 75.66% 3463 (1.00) 291 (.000) 96.44% 590 (.690) 13 (.310)
20 MAS 97.80% 4089 (.090) 529 (.910) 94.15% 590 (.710) 12 (.290)
21 FMG 85.16% 3898 (1.00) 373 (.000) 96.33% 589 (.690) 13 (.310)
22 KNT 69.22% 3168 (1.00) 260 (.000) 96.33% 589 (.690) 13 (.310)
23 DII 98.79% 4079 (.090) 535 (.910) 98.50% 588 (.670) 14 (.330)
24 RUD 98.62% 4160 (.090) 533 (.910) 96.21% 588 (.690) 13 (.310)
25 COL 88.44% 4048 (1.00) 431 (.000) 96.21% 588 (.690) 13 (.310)
26 SEL 81.47% 3729 (1.00) 337 (.000) 96.21% 588 (.690) 13 (.310)
27 JNK 85.14% 3897 (1.00) 364 (.000) 96.10% 587 (.690) 13 (.310)
28 BOW 70.59% 3231 (1.00) 295 (.000) 96.10% 587 (.690) 13 (.310)
29 BIL 98.38% 4125 (.090) 532 (.910) 93.81% 587 (.710) 12 (.290)
30 PPP 92.72% 4082 (.090) 499 (.910) 95.99% 586 (.690) 13 (.310)
31 CSL 87.00% 3982 (1.00) 424 (.000) 95.99% 586 (.690) 13 (.310)
32 MRK 80.45% 3682 (1.00) 329 (.000) 95.99% 586 (.690) 13 (.310)
33 PIR 98.35% 4109 (.090) 532 (.910) 95.87% 585 (.690) 13 (.310)
34 REW 69.46% 3179 (1.00) 255 (.000) 91.30% 585 (.720) 11 (.280)
35 HKB 84.66% 3875 (1.00) 374 (.000) 95.76% 584 (.690) 13 (.310)
36 ASH 80.53% 3686 (1.00) 342 (.000) 95.76% 584 (.690) 13 (.310)
37 MvG 80.40% 3680 (1.00) 327 (.000) 95.76% 584 (.690) 13 (.310)
38 RWP 95.35% 4050 (.090) 515 (.910) 95.65% 583 (.690) 13 (.310)
39 ACU 88.81% 4065 (1.00) 460 (.000) 95.65% 583 (.690) 13 (.310)
40 WEL 84.68% 3876 (1.00) 361 (.000) 95.65% 583 (.690) 13 (.310)
41 GBE 68.71% 3145 (1.00) 254 (.000) 95.65% 583 (.690) 13 (.310)
42 RME 84.33% 3860 (1.00) 363 (.000) 93.36% 583 (.710) 12 (.290)
43 Con 98.88% 4122 (.090) 535 (.910) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
44 HAT 94.84% 4128 (.090) 511 (.910) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
45 LSD 88.55% 4053 (1.00) 459 (.000) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
46 BSS 86.34% 3952 (1.00) 402 (.000) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
47 WLK 82.81% 3790 (1.00) 379 (.000) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
48 KEE 75.11% 3438 (1.00) 303 (.000) 95.54% 582 (.690) 13 (.310)
49 DWI 97.38% 4050 (.090) 527 (.910) 93.25% 582 (.710) 12 (.290)
50 ENG 95.30% 4023 (.090) 515 (.910) 93.25% 582 (.710) 12 (.290)
51 SGR 78.50% 3593 (1.00) 335 (.000) 93.25% 582 (.710) 12 (.290)
52 GRR 59.71% 2733 (1.00) 218 (.000) 100.0% 581 (.000) 15 (1.00)
53 HEN 79.97% 3660 (1.00) 336 (.000) 95.42% 581 (.690) 13 (.310)
54 MJS 74.94% 3430 (1.00) 285 (.000) 95.42% 581 (.690) 13 (.310)
55 MGS 94.51% 4132 (.090) 509 (.910) 93.13% 581 (.710) 12 (.290)
56 BMC 75.01% 3117 (.090) 406 (.910) 93.13% 581 (.710) 12 (.290)
57 ATC 39.17% 1793 (1.00) 166 (.000) 88.56% 581 (.740) 10 (.260)
58 KPK 97.30% 4011 (.090) 527 (.910) 95.31% 580 (.690) 13 (.310)
59 OSC 89.60% 3557 (.080) 487 (.920) 95.31% 580 (.690) 13 (.310)
60 COF 80.14% 3668 (1.00) 341 (.000) 95.31% 580 (.690) 13 (.310)
61 WWP 45.12% 2065 (1.00) 139 (.000) 95.31% 580 (.690) 13 (.310)
62 SAG 97.95% 4001 (.090) 531 (.910) 88.44% 580 (.740) 10 (.260)
63 MDS 74.46% 3408 (1.00) 289 (.000) 95.20% 579 (.690) 13 (.310)
64 RT 83.79% 3835 (1.00) 381 (.000) 92.91% 579 (.700) 12 (.300)
65 CTW 96.03% 3971 (.090) 520 (.910) 88.33% 579 (.740) 10 (.260)
66 SMS 99.67% 4018 (.080) 541 (.920) 95.08% 578 (.690) 13 (.310)
67 KEL 95.71% 4057 (.090) 517 (.910) 95.08% 578 (.690) 13 (.310)
68 GLD 74.90% 3428 (1.00) 290 (.000) 95.08% 578 (.690) 13 (.310)
69 MTN 61.85% 2831 (1.00) 222 (.000) 95.08% 578 (.690) 13 (.310)
70 HOW 96.18% 4041 (.090) 520 (.910) 94.97% 577 (.690) 13 (.310)
71 FAS 84.12% 3850 (1.00) 375 (.000) 94.97% 577 (.690) 13 (.310)
72 BCM 65.94% 3018 (1.00) 302 (.000) 92.68% 577 (.700) 12 (.300)
73 DOK 100.0% 3932 (.000) 544 (1.00) 90.39% 577 (.720) 11 (.280)
74 JTR 86.24% 3947 (1.00) 411 (.000) 94.86% 576 (.690) 13 (.310)
75 HNL 78.41% 3589 (1.00) 339 (.000) 94.86% 576 (.690) 13 (.310)
76 HUF 34.91% 1598 (1.00) 98 (.000) 92.57% 576 (.700) 12 (.300)
77 TRP 72.56% 3321 (1.00) 303 (.000) 90.28% 576 (.720) 11 (.280)
78 PAY 97.83% 4102 (.090) 529 (.910) 94.74% 575 (.690) 13 (.310)
79 NUT 93.28% 3866 (.090) 505 (.910) 92.46% 575 (.700) 12 (.300)
80 DEZ 96.25% 3996 (.090) 521 (.910) 90.17% 575 (.720) 11 (.280)
81 PIG 99.17% 4019 (.080) 538 (.920) 87.88% 575 (.740) 10 (.260)
82 DES 97.62% 4006 (.090) 529 (.910) 87.88% 575 (.740) 10 (.260)
83 LOG 96.33% 3954 (.090) 522 (.910) 86.86% 575 (1.00) 9 (.000)
84 STH 12.54% 574 (1.00) 14 (.000) 96.92% 574 (.670) 14 (.330)
85 ARG 98.38% 4046 (.090) 533 (.910) 92.34% 574 (.700) 12 (.300)
86 KAM 98.14% 3930 (.080) 533 (.920) 92.34% 574 (.700) 12 (.300)
87 DCI 97.62% 4005 (.090) 529 (.910) 86.71% 574 (1.00) 9 (.000)
88 LAZ 97.63% 4088 (.090) 528 (.910) 94.52% 573 (.690) 13 (.310)
89 KLK 77.10% 3529 (1.00) 342 (.000) 92.23% 573 (.700) 12 (.300)
90 LAB 67.90% 3108 (1.00) 256 (.000) 92.23% 573 (.700) 12 (.300)
91 BWE 98.59% 3983 (.080) 535 (.920) 89.94% 573 (.720) 11 (.280)
92 KEN 79.05% 3618 (1.00) 329 (.000) 94.41% 572 (.680) 13 (.320)
93 RSL 80.05% 3664 (1.00) 374 (.000) 92.12% 572 (.700) 12 (.300)
94 BBT 95.54% 3976 (.090) 517 (.910) 92.00% 571 (.700) 12 (.300)
95 FPI 99.53% 3947 (.080) 541 (.920) 89.71% 571 (.720) 11 (.280)
96 BRN 99.37% 3952 (.080) 540 (.920) 89.71% 571 (.720) 11 (.280)
97 MAR 95.41% 3997 (.090) 516 (.910) 94.18% 570 (.680) 13 (.320)
98 YCM 74.87% 3427 (1.00) 327 (.000) 94.18% 570 (.680) 13 (.320)
99 MGN 79.13% 3622 (1.00) 333 (.000) 91.89% 570 (.700) 12 (.300)
100 LMC 75.09% 3437 (1.00) 341 (.000) 91.78% 569 (.700) 12 (.300)
101 BAS 89.73% 3863 (.090) 484 (.910) 87.20% 569 (.740) 10 (.260)
102 TPR 92.57% 3849 (.090) 501 (.910) 89.15% 566 (.720) 11 (.280)
103 JWN 52.33% 2395 (1.00) 180 (.000) 95.90% 565 (.670) 14 (.330)
104 MOR 96.97% 3933 (.080) 526 (.920) 85.35% 565 (1.00) 8 (.000)
105 CGV 96.85% 3958 (.090) 525 (.910) 93.50% 564 (.680) 13 (.320)
106 NGS 50.27% 2301 (1.00) 231 (.000) 91.10% 563 (.700) 12 (.300)
107 BDF 97.16% 3867 (.080) 528 (.920) 84.89% 562 (1.00) 9 (.000)
108 FEI 85.46% 3754 (.090) 460 (.910) 90.87% 561 (.700) 12 (.300)
109 YAG 82.35% 3059 (.000) 448 (1.00) 88.47% 560 (.720) 11 (.280)
110 PFZ 88.85% 3600 (.080) 482 (.920) 88.25% 558 (.710) 11 (.290)
111 TFG 34.08% 1560 (1.00) 103 (.000) 90.42% 557 (.700) 12 (.300)
112 SFX 77.58% 3551 (1.00) 374 (.000) 88.13% 557 (.710) 11 (.290)
113 RBA 33.58% 1537 (1.00) 97 (.000) 87.91% 555 (.710) 11 (.290)
114 S&P 80.99% 3707 (1.00) 434 (.000) 89.97% 553 (.690) 12 (.310)
115 PIT 68.39% 3130 (1.00) 365 (.000) . . (. ) . (. )
116 DUN 51.93% 2164 (.090) 281 (.910) . . (. ) . (. )
117 KH 44.19% 2010 (.100) 237 (.900) . . (. ) . (. )
118 CI 32.82% 1502 (1.00) 163 (.000) . . (. ) . (. )
119 SP 29.56% 1308 (.090) 159 (.910) . . (. ) . (. )
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B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D. Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224 jcoleman@unf.edu Disclaimer |
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