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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of January 12, 2015 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 62 violations out of 760 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 8.16%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 91.84% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 62 violations out of 760 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 8.16%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projectons are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

MinV Ranking
MVP Ranking
Team
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
1
Ohio State
1
Ohio State
Air Force
N/A
N/A
0.00
2
Oregon
2
Oregon
Akron
N/A
N/A
0.00
3
Michigan St
3
Michigan St
Alabama
N/A
N/A
0.00
4
Baylor
4
Baylor
Alabama-Birmingham
N/A
N/A
0.00
5
TCU
5
TCU
Appalachian St
N/A
N/A
0.00
6
Mississippi
6
Mississippi
Arizona
N/A
N/A
0.00
7
Alabama
7
Alabama
Arizona St
N/A
N/A
0.00
8
Florida St
8
Florida St
Arkansas
N/A
N/A
0.00
9
Georgia Tech
9
Georgia Tech
Arkansas St
N/A
N/A
0.00
10t
Mississippi St
10t
Mississippi St
Army
N/A
N/A
0.00
10t
Georgia
10t
Georgia
Auburn
N/A
N/A
0.00
12
Clemson
12
Clemson
Ball St
N/A
N/A
0.00
13
Missouri
13
Missouri
Baylor
N/A
N/A
0.00
14t
Texas A&M
14t
Texas A&M
Boise St
N/A
N/A
0.00
14t
Wisconsin
14t
Wisconsin
Boston College
N/A
N/A
0.00
16t
UCLA
16t
UCLA
Bowling Green
N/A
N/A
0.00
16t
Auburn
16t
Auburn
Brigham Young
N/A
N/A
0.00
18t
Arkansas
18t
Arkansas
Buffalo
N/A
N/A
0.00
18t
Kansas St
18t
Kansas St
California
N/A
N/A
0.00
20
Air Force
20
Air Force
Central Florida
N/A
N/A
0.00
21
Boise St
21
Boise St
Central Michigan
N/A
N/A
0.00
22
Arizona
22
Arizona
Cincinnati
N/A
N/A
0.00
23
Arizona St
23
Arizona St
Clemson
N/A
N/A
0.00
24
Marshall
24
Marshall
Colorado
N/A
N/A
0.00
25
Utah
25
Utah
Colorado St
N/A
N/A
0.00
26t
Colorado St
26t
Colorado St
Connecticut
N/A
N/A
0.00
26t
Louisville
26t
Louisville
Duke
N/A
N/A
0.00
28
Boston College
28
Boston College
East Carolina
N/A
N/A
0.00
29
Southern Cal
29
Southern Cal
Eastern Michigan
N/A
N/A
0.00
30
Notre Dame
30
Notre Dame
Florida
N/A
N/A
0.00
31t
Stanford
31t
Stanford
Florida Atlantic
N/A
N/A
0.00
31t
LSU
31t
LSU
Florida Int'l
N/A
N/A
0.00
33
Florida
33
Florida
Florida St
N/A
N/A
0.00
34
Minnesota
34
Minnesota
Fresno St
N/A
N/A
0.00
35
Nebraska
35
Nebraska
Georgia
N/A
N/A
0.00
36
Oklahoma
36
Oklahoma
Georgia Southern
N/A
N/A
0.00
37
Tennessee
37
Tennessee
Georgia St
N/A
N/A
0.00
38
Louisiana Tech
38
Louisiana Tech
Georgia Tech
N/A
N/A
0.00
39
Kentucky
39
Kentucky
Hawai`i
N/A
N/A
0.00
40
South Carolina
40
South Carolina
Houston
N/A
N/A
0.00
41
Memphis
41
Memphis
Idaho
N/A
N/A
0.00
42
Miami FL
42
Miami FL
Illinois
N/A
N/A
0.00
43
Rice
43
Rice
Indiana
N/A
N/A
0.00
44t
North Carolina St
44t
North Carolina St
Iowa
N/A
N/A
0.00
44t
Louisiana-Lafayette
44t
Louisiana-Lafayette
Iowa St
N/A
N/A
0.00
44t
Fresno St
44t
Fresno St
Kansas
N/A
N/A
0.00
47t
Nevada
47t
Nevada
Kansas St
N/A
N/A
0.00
47t
Utah St
47t
Utah St
Kent St
N/A
N/A
0.00
47t
Central Florida
47t
Central Florida
Kentucky
N/A
N/A
0.00
50t
East Carolina
50t
East Carolina
Louisiana Tech
N/A
N/A
0.00
50t
Brigham Young
50t
Brigham Young
Louisiana-Lafayette
N/A
N/A
0.00
52t
Virginia Tech
52t
Virginia Tech
Louisiana-Monroe
N/A
N/A
0.00
52t
Texas
52t
Texas
Louisville
N/A
N/A
0.00
54
West Virginia
54
West Virginia
LSU
N/A
N/A
0.00
55
Oklahoma St
55
Oklahoma St
Marshall
N/A
N/A
0.00
56
Washington
56
Washington
Maryland
N/A
N/A
0.00
57
Rutgers
57
Rutgers
Massachusetts
N/A
N/A
0.00
58
North Carolina
58
North Carolina
Memphis
N/A
N/A
0.00
59
Duke
59
Duke
Miami FL
N/A
N/A
0.00
60
Virginia
60
Virginia
Miami OH
N/A
N/A
0.00
61
Cincinnati
61
Cincinnati
Michigan
N/A
N/A
0.00
62
Maryland
62
Maryland
Michigan St
N/A
N/A
0.00
63
Michigan
63
Michigan
Middle Tennessee St
N/A
N/A
0.00
64
California
64
California
Minnesota
N/A
N/A
0.00
65
Texas Tech
65
Texas Tech
Mississippi
N/A
N/A
0.00
66
Kansas
66
Kansas
Mississippi St
N/A
N/A
0.00
67
Iowa St
67
Iowa St
Missouri
N/A
N/A
0.00
68
Iowa
68
Iowa
Navy
N/A
N/A
0.00
69t
Northern Illinois
69t
Northern Illinois
Nebraska
N/A
N/A
0.00
69t
Illinois
69t
Illinois
Nevada
N/A
N/A
0.00
71
Northwestern
71
Northwestern
New Mexico
N/A
N/A
0.00
72
Penn State
72
Penn State
New Mexico St
N/A
N/A
0.00
73
Washington St
73
Washington St
North Carolina
N/A
N/A
0.00
74
Oregon St
74
Oregon St
North Carolina St
N/A
N/A
0.00
75
Middle Tennessee St
75
Middle Tennessee St
North Texas
N/A
N/A
0.00
76
Alabama-Birmingham
76
Alabama-Birmingham
Northern Illinois
N/A
N/A
0.00
77
Western Kentucky
77
Western Kentucky
Northwestern
N/A
N/A
0.00
78
Navy
78
Navy
Notre Dame
N/A
N/A
0.00
79t
UTEP
79t
UTEP
Ohio State
N/A
N/A
0.00
79t
San Diego St
79t
San Diego St
Ohio U.
N/A
N/A
0.00
81
New Mexico
81
New Mexico
Oklahoma
N/A
N/A
0.00
82
Texas-San Antonio
82
Texas-San Antonio
Oklahoma St
N/A
N/A
0.00
83
Houston
83
Houston
Old Dominion
N/A
N/A
0.00
84
Temple
84
Temple
Oregon
N/A
N/A
0.00
85
Toledo
85
Toledo
Oregon St
N/A
N/A
0.00
86t
Western Michigan
86t
Western Michigan
Penn State
N/A
N/A
0.00
86t
Army
86t
Army
Pittsburgh
N/A
N/A
0.00
88
Ball St
88
Ball St
Purdue
N/A
N/A
0.00
89t
Central Michigan
89t
Central Michigan
Rice
N/A
N/A
0.00
89t
Bowling Green
89t
Bowling Green
Rutgers
N/A
N/A
0.00
91t
Ohio U.
91t
Ohio U.
San Diego St
N/A
N/A
0.00
91t
Indiana
91t
Indiana
San Josť St
N/A
N/A
0.00
93
Buffalo
93
Buffalo
SMU
N/A
N/A
0.00
94
Akron
94
Akron
South Alabama
N/A
N/A
0.00
95
Pittsburgh
95
Pittsburgh
South Carolina
N/A
N/A
0.00
96
Colorado
96
Colorado
South Florida
N/A
N/A
0.00
97
Syracuse
97
Syracuse
Southern Cal
N/A
N/A
0.00
98
Georgia Southern
98
Georgia Southern
Southern Miss
N/A
N/A
0.00
99
Purdue
99
Purdue
Stanford
N/A
N/A
0.00
100t
South Alabama
100t
South Alabama
Syracuse
N/A
N/A
0.00
100t
Southern Miss
100t
Southern Miss
TCU
N/A
N/A
0.00
102t
Texas St-San Marcos
102t
Texas St-San Marcos
Temple
N/A
N/A
0.00
102t
Appalachian St
102t
Appalachian St
Tennessee
N/A
N/A
0.00
104
Arkansas St
104
Arkansas St
Texas
N/A
N/A
0.00
105
Vanderbilt
105
Vanderbilt
Texas A&M
N/A
N/A
0.00
106
Louisiana-Monroe
106
Louisiana-Monroe
Texas St-San Marcos
N/A
N/A
0.00
107
Wake Forest
107
Wake Forest
Texas Tech
N/A
N/A
0.00
108
Hawai`i
108
Hawai`i
Texas-San Antonio
N/A
N/A
0.00
109
South Florida
109
South Florida
Toledo
N/A
N/A
0.00
110
Old Dominion
110
Old Dominion
Troy
N/A
N/A
0.00
111t
North Texas
111t
North Texas
Tulane
N/A
N/A
0.00
111t
San Josť St
111t
San Josť St
Tulsa
N/A
N/A
0.00
113t
Florida Int'l
113t
Florida Int'l
UCLA
N/A
N/A
0.00
113t
Wyoming
113t
Wyoming
UNLV
N/A
N/A
0.00
115
Florida Atlantic
115
Florida Atlantic
Utah
N/A
N/A
0.00
116
Tulsa
116
Tulsa
Utah St
N/A
N/A
0.00
117
Tulane
117
Tulane
UTEP
N/A
N/A
0.00
118
UNLV
118
UNLV
Vanderbilt
N/A
N/A
0.00
119
Miami OH
119
Miami OH
Virginia
N/A
N/A
0.00
120
Massachusetts
120
Massachusetts
Virginia Tech
N/A
N/A
0.00
121
Kent St
121
Kent St
Wake Forest
N/A
N/A
0.00
122
SMU
122
SMU
Washington
N/A
N/A
0.00
123
Connecticut
123
Connecticut
Washington St
N/A
N/A
0.00
124
Troy
124
Troy
West Virginia
N/A
N/A
0.00
125
Idaho
125
Idaho
Western Kentucky
N/A
N/A
0.00
126
New Mexico St
126
New Mexico St
Western Michigan
N/A
N/A
0.00
127
Georgia St
127
Georgia St
Wisconsin
N/A
N/A
0.00
128
Eastern Michigan
128
Eastern Michigan
Wyoming
N/A
N/A
0.00


This page last updated on Friday, January 16, 2015 at 9:28 a.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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