NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    


The Dance Card is a formula derived by Coleman, DuMond, and Lynch as an estimate of the decision rule that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses when picking the teams that will get at-large bids to the NCAA men's basketball tournament.

Using past decisions of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and numerous pieces of information (e.g. RPI rankings, number of wins and losses, conference records, etc.) for all teams that were candidates for at-large selections in those years, the authors devised the Dance Card formula as an estimate of which pieces of information were most important to the Selection Committee, and the weights that the Committee placed on those pieces of information.

The original version of the Dance Card (based on 1994 through 1999 data and developed by Coleman and Lynch) was published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) in 2001, and was the version used to make at-large predictions through the 2008 Tournament.

An article discussing research associated with the an updated version of the Dance Card (based on 1999 through 2008 data) was published in 2010 in Managerial and Decision Economics. The predictions for 2009 through 2013 were based on the updated Dance Card.

The current version of the Dance Card, based on 2009 through 2013 data, was published in 2016 in the Journal of Sports Analytics (just click on the journal link for a full text version of that paper). The predictions for 2014 to the present were based on this current version of the Dance Card.

The abstracts and bibliographic information for the articles in Interfaces, Managerial and Decision Economics, and Journal of Sports Analytics can be found under the "Other Sports Research" tab of this site.

B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224