Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams
through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2012,
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by
Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida,
Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and
Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive
at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
To get the rankings shown below, we have removed the historical conference-related biases found in the past committee decisions
on which the Dance Card was based. In other words, if the current committee is free of the same biases, its decisions
should more closely match the predictions below. The "biased" rankings for this season, which include all the historical biases in the calculations,
can be found here.
This season the "biased" Dance Card correctly predicted 35 of 37 at-large bids (95%). The "unbiased" version correctly predicted 36 of 37 bids (97%),
suggesting that this year's committee closely followed the performance-related patterns of past committees, without also showing similar historical biases.
In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team
with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past
years, if today was Selection Sunday. (Although the bubble line reflects this year's 68-team (37 at-large bid) field,
the probability shown reflects a 65-team (34 at-large bid) Tournament.) The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula,
in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally.
This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's
development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.
Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Kentucky
15.1843
100.00%
2
2
Syracuse
14.8322
100.00%
1
3
@Michigan St.
14.7216
100.00%
4
4
Ohio St.
13.1386
100.00%
7
5
Kansas
12.9340
100.00%
6
6
@Missouri
12.5734
100.00%
11
7
North Carolina
12.4053
100.00%
3
8
Duke
11.1006
100.00%
5
9
Michigan
10.9750
100.00%
17
10
Baylor
9.7361
100.00%
8
11
@Florida St.
9.3031
100.00%
10
12
Marquette
8.9438
100.00%
9
13
@New Mexico
8.7936
100.00%
25
14
Wisconsin
8.6309
100.00%
18
15
@Louisville
8.3039
100.00%
12
16
Indiana
8.2342
100.00%
20
17
Georgetown
7.8857
100.00%
16
18
@Vanderbilt
7.6192
100.00%
15
19
Wichita St.
6.9778
100.00%
13
20
@Memphis
6.9725
100.00%
14
21
Cincinnati
6.4887
100.00%
38
22
Temple
5.5592
100.00%
21
23
@Creighton
5.4480
100.00%
24
24
Florida
5.2456
100.00%
27
25
San Diego St.
5.1985
100.00%
23
26
Notre Dame
5.1654
100.00%
36
27
@St. Mary's
5.1164
100.00%
28
28
Purdue
4.0898
100.00%
37
29
Kansas St.
3.9884
100.00%
40
30
Nevada Las Vegas
3.8766
99.99%
22
31
Gonzaga
3.6511
99.99%
26
32
St. Louis
3.5652
99.98%
32
33
@Murray St.
3.5196
99.98%
19
34
Iowa St.
3.3479
99.96%
33
35
Alabama
3.2870
99.95%
35
36
Connecticut
2.1463
98.41%
30
37
North Carolina St.
1.9745
97.58%
34
38
Southern Mississippi
1.7793
96.24%
29
39
Virginia
1.5231
93.61%
48
40
@Harvard
1.4773
93.02%
42
41
Xavier
1.3486
91.13%
43
42
West Virginia
1.3331
90.88%
44
43
California
1.0682
85.73%
39
44
Brigham Young
0.9686
83.36%
46
45
Texas
0.8692
80.76%
41
46
@Virginia Commonwealth
0.7684
77.89%
47
47
@Belmont
0.6860
75.36%
73
48
@Long Beach St.
0.4316
66.70%
53
49
Drexel (miss)
0.1879
57.45%
69
50
South Florida
0.1653
56.56%
51
51
Colorado St.
0.0817
53.26%
31
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
52
Miami FL
-0.2285
40.96%
55
53
@New Mexico St.
-0.2701
39.35%
57
54
Iona (miss)
-0.3626
35.85%
52
55
@Colorado
-0.6046
27.27%
60
56
Washington
-0.8310
20.30%
62
57
Marshall
-1.0531
14.61%
45
58
@Davidson
-1.0640
14.37%
68
59
Seton Hall
-1.0928
13.72%
56
60
Nevada
-1.5892
5.60%
54
61
Middle Tennessee
-1.7209
4.26%
66
62
Dayton
-1.7241
4.23%
72
63
Oral Roberts
-1.8861
2.96%
63
64
Tennessee
-1.8973
2.89%
75
65
Arizona
-1.9025
2.86%
74
66
Saint Joseph's
-1.9515
2.55%
67
67
Oregon
-2.0524
2.01%
50
68
Mississippi St.
-2.0745
1.90%
64
69
Mississippi
-2.1391
1.62%
59
70
@South Dakota St.
-2.2113
1.35%
71
71
@St. Bonaventure
-2.3562
0.92%
81
72
Central Florida
-2.6402
0.41%
58
73
Akron
-2.8133
0.25%
65
74
Northwestern
-2.8350
0.23%
49
75
Massachusetts
-2.9008
0.19%
79
76
@Ohio
-3.2064
0.07%
61
77
Stanford
-3.7315
0.01%
92
78
La Salle
-5.0159
0.00%
91
79
Louisiana St.
-5.1453
0.00%
80
80
@Montana
-5.1590
0.00%
77
81
UCLA
-5.1824
0.00%
110
82
Cleveland St.
-5.2668
0.00%
87
83
Northern Iowa
-5.4088
0.00%
76
84
George Mason
-5.5854
0.00%
90
85
Iowa
-5.7293
0.00%
112
86
Minnesota
-5.8347
0.00%
70
87
Illinois St.
-6.0910
0.00%
99
88
Denver
-6.5960
0.00%
100
89
Old Dominion
-6.8866
0.00%
96
90
Tulsa
-6.9166
0.00%
116
91
Valparaiso
-7.0435
0.00%
106
92
Wyoming
-7.2635
0.00%
82
93
Princeton
-7.2739
0.00%
104
94
@Loyola MD
-7.5446
0.00%
94
95
Illinois
-7.5736
0.00%
78
96
Buffalo
-7.6577
0.00%
89
97
UAB
-7.9556
0.00%
108
98
Weber St.
-8.0477
0.00%
85
99
Pennsylvania
-8.0700
0.00%
93
100
Texas Christian
-8.1215
0.00%
101
101
Loyola Marymount
-8.1987
0.00%
107
102
Clemson
-8.2818
0.00%
142
103
@Long Island
-8.4435
0.00%
103
104
Texas Arlington
-8.4937
0.00%
127
105
@Detroit
-8.5602
0.00%
129
106
Bucknell
-8.5889
0.00%
97
107
Wagner
-8.5938
0.00%
95
108
Butler
-8.7811
0.00%
115
109
@NC Asheville
-8.8000
0.00%
111
110
Missouri St.
-8.9642
0.00%
124
111
Fairfield
-9.1243
0.00%
119
112
Kent St.
-9.1537
0.00%
113
113
Evansville
-9.2471
0.00%
120
114
@Lehigh
-9.3903
0.00%
114
115
Oklahoma St.
-9.5029
0.00%
109
116
Drake
-9.8021
0.00%
131
117
Oregon St.
-9.8022
0.00%
122
118
Georgia St.
-10.1695
0.00%
146
119
Maryland
-10.3232
0.00%
88
120
Arkansas
-10.5032
0.00%
86
121
UC Santa Barbara
-10.5061
0.00%
126
122
Pittsburgh
-10.5226
0.00%
83
123
San Francisco
-10.5732
0.00%
135
124
Georgia
-11.2222
0.00%
84
125
Mercer
-11.4419
0.00%
149
126
Duquesne
-11.4487
0.00%
102
127
Wisconsin Milwaukee
-11.5684
0.00%
138
128
@Lamar
-11.7355
0.00%
130
129
Indiana St.
-11.9096
0.00%
137
130
Yale
-11.9208
0.00%
134
131
Robert Morris
-11.9961
0.00%
117
132
Richmond
-12.1691
0.00%
128
133
Texas El Paso
-12.3702
0.00%
132
134
Tennessee St.
-12.6217
0.00%
125
135
Manhattan
-12.6445
0.00%
156
136
Virginia Tech
-12.7339
0.00%
98
137
Idaho
-12.7961
0.00%
152
138
Utah St.
-13.0408
0.00%
143
139
@Norfolk St.
-13.4481
0.00%
136
140
Villanova
-13.6852
0.00%
105
141
College of Charleston
-13.8462
0.00%
123
142
Delaware
-13.9012
0.00%
159
143
Rice
-13.9998
0.00%
165
144
South Carolina Upstate
-14.1076
0.00%
163
145
@Vermont
-14.1675
0.00%
147
146
Rutgers
-14.3465
0.00%
139
147
Stony Brook
-14.5219
0.00%
166
148
Bowling Green
-14.5573
0.00%
155
149
Oakland
-14.8970
0.00%
151
150
Tennessee Tech
-15.3915
0.00%
148
151
Oklahoma
-15.4383
0.00%
118
152
Arkansas Little Rock
-15.6360
0.00%
173
153
Youngstown St.
-16.0284
0.00%
182
154
Cal St. Fullerton
-16.1347
0.00%
169
155
Wisconsin Green Bay
-16.2121
0.00%
157
156
South Alabama
-16.3151
0.00%
168
157
Louisiana Tech
-16.3436
0.00%
160
158
St. John's
-16.4186
0.00%
133
159
Western Illinois
-16.4637
0.00%
158
160
@Western Kentucky
-16.5342
0.00%
171
161
@Mississippi Valley St.
-16.7161
0.00%
179
162
North Texas
-16.7435
0.00%
200
163
Auburn
-17.2261
0.00%
121
164
East Carolina
-17.3232
0.00%
153
165
East Tennessee St.
-17.3887
0.00%
192
166
Washington St.
-17.4947
0.00%
174
167
Quinnipiac
-17.6231
0.00%
167
168
Louisiana Lafayette
-17.6411
0.00%
185
169
American
-17.7747
0.00%
164
170
Morehead St.
-17.8845
0.00%
175
171
Northeastern
-18.2597
0.00%
190
172
North Dakota St.
-18.5220
0.00%
189
173
Houston
-18.5940
0.00%
188
174
Savannah St.
-18.7265
0.00%
207
175
Stephen F. Austin
-18.7615
0.00%
208
176
Hawaii
-18.8080
0.00%
181
177
Wofford
-18.9635
0.00%
195
178
Providence
-19.0709
0.00%
144
179
Cornell
-19.2159
0.00%
176
180
Cal St. Bakersfield
-19.4246
0.00%
235
181
Coastal Carolina
-19.6181
0.00%
184
182
Texas A&M
-19.6444
0.00%
145
183
Charleston Southern
-19.6568
0.00%
180
184
San Diego
-19.7175
0.00%
187
185
Texas San Antonio
-19.7389
0.00%
209
186
Nebraska
-19.8726
0.00%
140
187
North Florida
-20.0025
0.00%
191
188
Charlotte
-20.0900
0.00%
170
189
Penn St.
-20.1220
0.00%
141
190
Portland St.
-20.1457
0.00%
197
191
Boise St.
-20.6780
0.00%
154
192
Seattle
-20.7283
0.00%
266
193
Cal Poly
-20.7705
0.00%
225
194
Air Force
-20.8116
0.00%
150
195
McNeese St.
-20.9500
0.00%
194
196
Florida Gulf Coast
-21.1826
0.00%
211
197
Rider
-21.2016
0.00%
199
198
Boston University
-21.2438
0.00%
201
199
Georgia Tech
-21.4116
0.00%
178
200
Toledo
-21.6056
0.00%
230
201
George Washington
-21.6828
0.00%
172
202
Wake Forest
-22.1272
0.00%
162
203
Jacksonville St.
-22.1426
0.00%
218
204
Holy Cross
-22.2096
0.00%
186
205
Western Michigan
-22.4735
0.00%
196
206
Georgia Southern
-22.5923
0.00%
219
207
Austin Peay
-22.7399
0.00%
193
208
Columbia
-22.8459
0.00%
183
209
St. Francis NY
-22.8500
0.00%
222
210
Niagara
-23.1167
0.00%
198
211
Florida Atlantic
-23.2330
0.00%
216
212
Siena
-23.5949
0.00%
205
213
Albany
-23.8430
0.00%
227
214
Western Carolina
-23.8894
0.00%
233
215
Eastern Washington
-23.9740
0.00%
232
216
Arkansas St.
-24.1867
0.00%
214
217
Lafayette
-24.2785
0.00%
206
218
Southeast Missouri St.
-24.4700
0.00%
249
219
DePaul
-24.5250
0.00%
177
220
Central Connecticut
-24.9236
0.00%
226
221
South Carolina
-24.9271
0.00%
161
222
Campbell
-24.9893
0.00%
228
223
Lipscomb
-25.1430
0.00%
234
224
Wright St.
-25.2265
0.00%
215
225
Utah Valley
-25.2883
0.00%
243
226
Southern Utah
-25.3303
0.00%
239
227
Elon
-25.4342
0.00%
236
228
Eastern Michigan
-25.4982
0.00%
252
229
North Carolina Central
-25.5795
0.00%
268
230
Southern Methodist
-25.7898
0.00%
204
231
Bethune Cookman
-25.8998
0.00%
256
232
Arizona St.
-26.1492
0.00%
220
233
Delaware St.
-26.1637
0.00%
257
234
NC Greensboro
-26.2341
0.00%
240
235
Northwestern St.
-26.5193
0.00%
229
236
IUPUI
-26.5800
0.00%
203
237
Boston College
-26.6210
0.00%
202
238
Furman
-26.6560
0.00%
242
239
Marist
-27.2367
0.00%
210
240
Ball St.
-27.7530
0.00%
258
241
Eastern Kentucky
-27.8832
0.00%
231
242
Presbyterian
-28.0027
0.00%
244
243
Fresno St.
-28.0302
0.00%
224
244
Sacred Heart
-28.1845
0.00%
241
245
Monmouth
-28.4632
0.00%
246
246
Tulane
-28.6228
0.00%
223
247
North Dakota
-28.6301
0.00%
260
248
Rhode Island
-28.8134
0.00%
251
249
Miami OH
-28.9231
0.00%
221
250
Longwood
-29.1002
0.00%
334
251
NC Wilmington
-29.3850
0.00%
217
252
Texas Southern
-29.5940
0.00%
263
253
Coppin St.
-29.9090
0.00%
284
254
Virginia Military Inst
-29.9905
0.00%
269
255
UC Irvine
-30.0848
0.00%
248
256
Southern Illinois
-30.1173
0.00%
247
257
UC Riverside
-30.3251
0.00%
259
258
Appalachian St.
-30.3323
0.00%
255
259
Florida International
-30.4381
0.00%
261
260
Fordham
-30.5870
0.00%
212
261
High Point
-30.7265
0.00%
264
262
Southern
-31.2231
0.00%
297
263
Winthrop
-31.3632
0.00%
276
264
Liberty
-31.3953
0.00%
278
265
Samford
-31.4777
0.00%
272
266
Northern Colorado
-31.8353
0.00%
253
267
James Madison
-32.0546
0.00%
262
268
Central Michigan
-32.1469
0.00%
279
269
Troy
-32.2542
0.00%
265
270
Montana St.
-32.4953
0.00%
281
271
Stetson
-32.6026
0.00%
270
272
Sam Houston St.
-32.8869
0.00%
277
273
NJ Inst of Technology
-32.9030
0.00%
303
274
Portland
-32.9480
0.00%
237
275
Pepperdine
-33.7257
0.00%
273
276
Idaho St.
-33.8669
0.00%
293
277
Jacksonville
-33.9595
0.00%
271
278
Prairie View A&M
-34.1591
0.00%
304
279
SIU Edwardsville
-34.3864
0.00%
298
280
Pacific
-34.5667
0.00%
280
281
Hampton
-34.6860
0.00%
307
282
Texas Tech
-34.8031
0.00%
213
283
Hofstra
-34.8731
0.00%
238
284
New Hampshire
-35.0447
0.00%
291
285
Eastern Illinois
-35.0479
0.00%
287
286
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-35.4515
0.00%
312
287
North Carolina A&T
-35.5680
0.00%
296
288
Morgan St.
-35.5854
0.00%
290
289
Texas St.
-35.7119
0.00%
288
290
Maine
-35.9780
0.00%
282
291
Texas Pan American
-36.2102
0.00%
311
292
Hartford
-36.2622
0.00%
310
293
Army
-36.4735
0.00%
294
294
Howard
-36.5948
0.00%
285
295
Alabama St.
-36.7874
0.00%
317
296
Sacramento St.
-36.9193
0.00%
315
297
Florida A&M
-36.9208
0.00%
318
298
IUPU Fort Wayne
-36.9220
0.00%
275
299
South Dakota
-37.0317
0.00%
292
300
Missouri Kansas City
-37.1452
0.00%
267
301
Mount St. Mary's
-37.3879
0.00%
295
302
Bradley
-37.4679
0.00%
245
303
Utah
-37.9687
0.00%
250
304
Southern California
-38.2938
0.00%
254
305
Nicholls St.
-38.3084
0.00%
305
306
Chattanooga
-38.4820
0.00%
289
307
Gardner Webb
-38.6730
0.00%
301
308
San Jose St.
-38.7164
0.00%
274
309
Brown
-39.0748
0.00%
306
310
Southeastern Louisiana
-39.4859
0.00%
313
311
Houston Baptist
-40.1024
0.00%
316
312
William & Mary
-40.1366
0.00%
300
313
Illinois Chicago
-40.1702
0.00%
286
314
Santa Clara
-41.0603
0.00%
283
315
St. Francis PA
-41.1618
0.00%
308
316
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-41.4468
0.00%
320
317
St. Peter's
-41.4723
0.00%
302
318
Dartmouth
-42.3221
0.00%
322
319
Louisiana Monroe
-42.6782
0.00%
323
320
Northern Illinois
-42.7292
0.00%
330
321
Cal St. Northridge
-42.9498
0.00%
327
322
Alcorn St.
-43.2250
0.00%
338
323
Colgate
-43.4686
0.00%
299
324
Chicago St.
-43.6162
0.00%
337
325
Maryland Eastern Shore
-44.1509
0.00%
319
326
Central Arkansas
-44.4091
0.00%
321
327
Loyola Chicago
-44.8702
0.00%
314
328
The Citadel
-45.3864
0.00%
324
329
Jackson St.
-45.4501
0.00%
325
330
UC Davis
-45.7232
0.00%
335
331
Alabama A&M
-46.8726
0.00%
341
332
Grambling
-47.7167
0.00%
342
333
MD Baltimore County
-47.9838
0.00%
340
334
Towson
-48.1489
0.00%
309
335
Northern Arizona
-48.1516
0.00%
336
336
Fairleigh Dickinson
-48.6822
0.00%
328
337
Canisius
-48.9153
0.00%
332
338
Radford
-49.3133
0.00%
326
339
Tennessee Martin
-49.4235
0.00%
331
340
Navy
-49.5996
0.00%
329
341
Kennesaw St.
-50.5162
0.00%
333
342
Binghamton
-51.3719
0.00%
344
343
Bryant
-51.3854
0.00%
339
344
South Carolina St.
-53.8669
0.00%
343
This page last updated on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 6:55 p.m.
