NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 17, 2013 (FINAL), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. To get the rankings shown below, we have removed the historical conference-related biases found in the past committee decisions on which the Dance Card was based. In other words, if the current committee is free of the same biases, its decisions should closely match the predictions below.

The Dance Card perfectly predicted 37 of the 37 at-large teams this season (or 100% accuracy). Our assumption that the Selection Committee would not exhibit historical biases was accurate; compliments to committee chair Mike Bobinski's group. The "unbiased" Dance Card has now correctly predicted 73 of 74 bids over the last two seasons, or 98.6%.

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. (Although the bubble line reflects this year's 68-team (37 at-large bid) field, the probability shown reflects a 65-team (34 at-large bid) Tournament.) The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Kansas
14.9475
100.00%
5
2
@Louisville
14.2609
100.00%
2
3
Indiana
13.2935
100.00%
7
4
@Miami FL
12.3943
100.00%
4
5
Duke
11.9168
100.00%
1
6
Georgetown
11.7459
100.00%
9
7
@Ohio St.
11.5647
100.00%
8
8
@New Mexico
11.5508
100.00%
3
9
@Gonzaga
11.0970
100.00%
6
10
@St. Louis
10.8317
100.00%
14
11
Wisconsin
9.1953
100.00%
26
12
Michigan St.
8.8812
100.00%
10
13
Kansas St.
8.8704
100.00%
18
14
Michigan
8.7551
100.00%
21
15
Marquette
8.3482
100.00%
17
16
Florida
8.2835
100.00%
13
17
UCLA
7.6903
100.00%
20
18
Syracuse
7.5508
100.00%
12
19
@Memphis
7.5250
100.00%
11
20
Nevada Las Vegas
6.8097
100.00%
16
21
@Creighton
6.5873
100.00%
27
22
Arizona
6.4617
100.00%
15
23
Oklahoma St.
6.4201
100.00%
24
24
Butler
5.8995
100.00%
22
25
Notre Dame
5.3249
100.00%
31
26
Pittsburgh
4.7869
100.00%
35
27
North Carolina
4.7645
100.00%
19
28
Virginia Commonwealth
4.6624
100.00%
23
29
@Oregon
4.2509
100.00%
44
30
North Carolina St.
4.0075
100.00%
33
31
Colorado St.
3.8793
99.99%
25
32
San Diego St.
3.8755
99.99%
32
33
Cincinnati
3.3660
99.96%
37
34
@Mississippi
2.9327
99.83%
50
35
Illinois
2.8188
99.76%
34
36
Villanova
2.7888
99.74%
52
37
Middle Tennessee
2.6926
99.65%
36
38
@Belmont
2.4082
99.20%
28
39
Connecticut
2.4057
-
42
40
California
2.3864
99.15%
49
41
Missouri
2.3480
99.06%
41
42
Colorado
2.3431
99.04%
39
43
St. Mary's
2.2446
98.76%
29
44
Wichita St.
2.2394
98.74%
38
45
Temple
1.6237
94.78%
40
46
Iowa St.
1.5757
94.25%
46
47
Oklahoma
1.3857
91.71%
43
48
@Akron
0.6656
74.72%
47
49
Minnesota
0.6230
73.34%
30
50
Boise St.
0.4477
67.28%
51
51
La Salle
0.4018
65.61%
48
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
52
Iowa
0.2494
59.85%
69
53
Kentucky
-0.1017
45.95%
53
54
Southern Mississippi
-0.3723
35.48%
45
55
Tennessee
-0.3832
35.08%
56
56
Virginia
-0.4527
32.54%
70
57
Massachusetts
-1.0758
14.10%
54
58
Louisiana Tech
-1.0923
13.74%
61
59
@Valparaiso
-1.1616
12.27%
57
60
Maryland
-1.3176
9.38%
62
61
@New Mexico St.
-1.3638
8.63%
58
62
Denver
-1.3913
8.21%
75
63
Baylor
-1.5651
5.88%
60
64
Alabama
-1.7783
3.77%
59
65
Xavier
-1.8400
3.29%
80
66
@Davidson
-1.9059
2.83%
67
67
Stanford
-2.1719
1.49%
65
68
Washington
-2.4813
0.65%
73
69
Arizona St.
-2.5278
0.57%
74
70
Florida St.
-2.8332
0.23%
66
71
@Bucknell
-3.0573
0.11%
55
72
Ohio
-3.3341
0.04%
71
73
Brigham Young
-3.4926
0.02%
63
74
Northern Iowa
-3.5492
0.02%
72
75
@South Dakota St.
-3.5730
0.02%
94
76
Providence
-4.1035
0.00%
78
77
Arkansas
-4.2257
0.00%
77
78
Charlotte
-4.2876
0.00%
64
79
Saint Joseph's
-4.3171
0.00%
87
80
Air Force
-5.1529
0.00%
81
81
Indiana St.
-5.4631
0.00%
76
82
Stephen F. Austin
-5.5408
0.00%
89
83
Detroit
-5.5839
0.00%
85
84
Louisiana St.
-6.0307
0.00%
83
85
North Dakota St.
-6.2500
0.00%
95
86
Texas El Paso
-6.4363
0.00%
86
87
St. John's
-6.5180
0.00%
79
88
Purdue
-7.0443
0.00%
115
89
Stony Brook
-7.0801
0.00%
103
90
Santa Clara
-7.1240
0.00%
93
91
Vanderbilt
-7.2916
0.00%
104
92
Southern California
-7.4320
0.00%
107
93
@Iona
-7.5353
0.00%
111
94
Richmond
-7.6262
0.00%
90
95
Central Florida
-7.6832
0.00%
92
96
Evansville
-7.7568
0.00%
106
97
@Montana
-8.0550
0.00%
88
98
@Pacific
-8.2464
0.00%
109
99
Eastern Kentucky
-8.3233
0.00%
91
100
Texas
-8.4241
0.00%
98
101
Loyola MD
-8.5137
0.00%
108
102
@Harvard
-8.6041
0.00%
110
103
Utah St.
-8.6412
0.00%
105
104
Texas A&M
-8.7033
0.00%
82
105
Illinois St.
-8.7977
0.00%
113
106
Weber St.
-8.8350
0.00%
99
107
Dayton
-8.9507
0.00%
97
108
Niagara
-9.0080
0.00%
126
109
Georgia
-9.2193
0.00%
114
110
@Northwestern St.
-9.2515
0.00%
100
111
Murray St.
-9.4019
0.00%
117
112
Texas Arlington
-9.5526
0.00%
121
113
Long Beach St.
-10.0764
0.00%
130
114
Boston College
-10.1760
0.00%
96
115
East Carolina
-10.1770
0.00%
102
116
Wright St.
-10.2770
0.00%
141
117
@Florida Gulf Coast
-10.3027
0.00%
112
118
Western Illinois
-10.5476
0.00%
135
119
Kent St.
-10.6158
0.00%
125
120
Northeastern
-10.6676
0.00%
139
121
Robert Morris
-11.1428
0.00%
137
122
Wyoming
-11.2290
0.00%
68
123
Princeton
-11.4582
0.00%
136
124
Lehigh
-11.5620
0.00%
119
125
Tennessee St.
-11.5801
0.00%
120
126
Mercer
-11.6032
0.00%
150
127
Canisius
-11.6794
0.00%
124
128
St. Bonaventure
-11.8247
0.00%
138
129
Tulsa
-11.9386
0.00%
128
130
Wisconsin Green Bay
-11.9628
0.00%
166
131
College of Charleston
-12.3280
0.00%
118
132
Rider
-12.7275
0.00%
151
133
Delaware
-12.8136
0.00%
147
134
Georgia Tech
-12.9458
0.00%
123
135
Rutgers
-13.0251
0.00%
101
136
George Mason
-13.1587
0.00%
154
137
@Western Kentucky
-13.1606
0.00%
148
138
Western Michigan
-13.2262
0.00%
149
139
Nebraska
-13.2462
0.00%
84
140
Vermont
-13.2554
0.00%
134
141
Florida International
-13.3612
0.00%
127
142
George Washington
-13.7168
0.00%
142
143
Drake
-13.7857
0.00%
129
144
South Alabama
-14.0982
0.00%
157
145
Arkansas St.
-14.1322
0.00%
170
146
UC Irvine
-14.3013
0.00%
156
147
Fresno St.
-14.5670
0.00%
143
148
San Diego
-14.7366
0.00%
153
149
@Albany
-14.8622
0.00%
131
150
@James Madison
-14.8658
0.00%
181
151
Fairfield
-14.8963
0.00%
184
152
Cal Poly
-15.1377
0.00%
176
153
Towson
-15.1953
0.00%
174
154
UAB
-15.2375
0.00%
144
155
Utah
-15.4216
0.00%
132
156
Wagner
-15.5088
0.00%
146
157
Oral Roberts
-15.5904
0.00%
164
158
San Francisco
-15.6100
0.00%
160
159
West Virginia
-15.8418
0.00%
133
160
Manhattan
-15.9567
0.00%
191
161
@Long Island
-16.1663
0.00%
180
162
Boston University
-16.4361
0.00%
168
163
Wake Forest
-16.4473
0.00%
145
164
Lafayette
-17.1513
0.00%
163
165
North Carolina Central
-17.2527
0.00%
169
166
Houston
-17.4427
0.00%
192
167
Toledo
-17.4927
0.00%
202
168
Jacksonville St.
-17.7854
0.00%
165
169
Norfolk St.
-17.7968
0.00%
196
170
Bryant
-17.8002
0.00%
161
171
Illinois Chicago
-17.8181
0.00%
173
172
Mount St. Mary's
-18.1624
0.00%
159
173
Charleston Southern
-18.1914
0.00%
201
174
Tulane
-18.2878
0.00%
172
175
Northwestern
-18.3886
0.00%
140
176
Arkansas Little Rock
-18.4239
0.00%
171
177
Texas Southern
-18.4365
0.00%
198
178
Oakland
-18.5673
0.00%
178
179
Elon
-18.7468
0.00%
183
180
Seton Hall
-19.1046
0.00%
116
181
Drexel
-19.1792
0.00%
210
182
@Southern
-19.2665
0.00%
204
183
Clemson
-19.2778
0.00%
175
184
Quinnipiac
-19.3429
0.00%
189
185
Youngstown St.
-19.4216
0.00%
190
186
Georgia St.
-19.5260
0.00%
209
187
Cal St. Bakersfield
-19.6524
0.00%
243
188
Hawaii
-19.6838
0.00%
186
189
Morehead St.
-19.7999
0.00%
177
190
Oregon St.
-19.9202
0.00%
162
191
Buffalo
-20.1250
0.00%
215
192
Washington St.
-20.2113
0.00%
167
193
South Florida
-20.3380
0.00%
122
194
Savannah St.
-20.4813
0.00%
179
195
Southeast Missouri St.
-20.5220
0.00%
224
196
Army
-20.7626
0.00%
217
197
Gardner Webb
-20.8649
0.00%
206
198
Yale
-21.0868
0.00%
213
199
Bradley
-21.1402
0.00%
182
200
Virginia Tech
-21.5561
0.00%
155
201
Missouri St.
-22.0184
0.00%
197
202
Hartford
-22.0770
0.00%
188
203
Marshall
-22.3101
0.00%
187
204
Nevada
-22.6841
0.00%
152
205
High Point
-22.8805
0.00%
247
206
Stetson
-22.9309
0.00%
225
207
Idaho
-22.9720
0.00%
199
208
Morgan St.
-23.0229
0.00%
256
209
UC Davis
-23.1804
0.00%
236
210
Ball St.
-23.3361
0.00%
227
211
Southern Illinois
-23.4866
0.00%
195
212
South Carolina Upstate
-23.6948
0.00%
237
213
Southern Methodist
-23.7329
0.00%
219
214
Eastern Michigan
-23.8045
0.00%
226
215
@North Carolina A&T
-24.0096
0.00%
232
216
NC Asheville
-24.0807
0.00%
223
217
Penn St.
-24.0923
0.00%
158
218
Florida Atlantic
-24.8011
0.00%
221
219
Brown
-24.9225
0.00%
245
220
Sam Houston St.
-25.0411
0.00%
230
221
Rhode Island
-25.1633
0.00%
193
222
Central Connecticut
-25.1703
0.00%
212
223
Loyola Chicago
-25.2075
0.00%
228
224
IUPU Fort Wayne
-25.7905
0.00%
252
225
North Dakota
-26.0035
0.00%
231
226
Louisiana Lafayette
-26.0976
0.00%
214
227
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-26.1273
0.00%
234
228
South Carolina
-26.2978
0.00%
200
229
Bowling Green
-26.5439
0.00%
241
230
Southeastern Louisiana
-26.7103
0.00%
233
231
St. Francis NY
-26.7895
0.00%
218
232
Western Carolina
-27.0644
0.00%
254
233
Texas Tech
-27.2771
0.00%
185
234
Coastal Carolina
-27.3948
0.00%
244
235
Mississippi St.
-27.5082
0.00%
207
236
Appalachian St.
-27.5497
0.00%
266
237
Cleveland St.
-27.6560
0.00%
203
238
DePaul
-28.3692
0.00%
194
239
Pepperdine
-28.5632
0.00%
220
240
UC Santa Barbara
-28.6440
0.00%
242
241
Loyola Marymount
-28.6954
0.00%
205
242
Northern Colorado
-28.7874
0.00%
268
243
Cornell
-28.8373
0.00%
255
244
Hampton
-28.9745
0.00%
284
245
Northern Kentucky
-29.0961
0.00%
282
246
North Florida
-29.3075
0.00%
240
247
North Texas
-29.6892
0.00%
235
248
Texas St.
-29.6901
0.00%
267
249
@Liberty
-29.7556
0.00%
291
250
Pennsylvania
-29.8468
0.00%
278
251
Delaware St.
-30.0549
0.00%
286
252
William & Mary
-30.0911
0.00%
272
253
Marist
-30.1463
0.00%
250
254
Columbia
-30.2297
0.00%
273
255
Fordham
-30.2440
0.00%
222
256
Portland
-30.3156
0.00%
216
257
New Orleans
-30.4403
0.00%
346
258
Cal St. Northridge
-30.4871
0.00%
246
259
Eastern Illinois
-30.5638
0.00%
271
260
Cal St. Fullerton
-30.5927
0.00%
277
261
Auburn
-30.6178
0.00%
229
262
Tennessee Tech
-30.6334
0.00%
239
263
Jacksonville
-31.1991
0.00%
281
264
Sacred Heart
-31.4033
0.00%
249
265
Bethune Cookman
-31.4496
0.00%
280
266
South Dakota
-31.8384
0.00%
248
267
Texas Christian
-31.9060
0.00%
208
268
McNeese St.
-32.1239
0.00%
253
269
NJ Inst of Technology
-32.1918
0.00%
307
270
Virginia Military Inst
-32.3777
0.00%
312
271
Samford
-32.3825
0.00%
293
272
Georgia Southern
-32.4132
0.00%
274
273
Texas San Antonio
-32.6633
0.00%
265
274
Troy
-32.7630
0.00%
259
275
Lipscomb
-32.7771
0.00%
238
276
Duquesne
-33.0487
0.00%
211
277
Campbell
-33.1206
0.00%
287
278
Holy Cross
-33.1598
0.00%
251
279
East Tennessee St.
-33.4705
0.00%
276
280
Wofford
-33.5477
0.00%
260
281
Winthrop
-33.6015
0.00%
258
282
Chattanooga
-33.6435
0.00%
279
283
American
-33.7037
0.00%
269
284
Nebraska Omaha
-33.9622
0.00%
288
285
Dartmouth
-33.9873
0.00%
297
286
Central Michigan
-34.0682
0.00%
263
287
Colgate
-34.1771
0.00%
262
288
Maine
-34.3706
0.00%
270
289
Montana St.
-34.6405
0.00%
308
290
Nicholls St.
-34.7871
0.00%
304
291
Texas Pan American
-34.8290
0.00%
314
292
Central Arkansas
-34.9784
0.00%
283
293
Miami OH
-35.4170
0.00%
264
294
Houston Baptist
-35.6582
0.00%
321
295
Jackson St.
-35.7146
0.00%
325
296
Sacramento St.
-35.7658
0.00%
285
297
Prairie View A&M
-35.7881
0.00%
318
298
SIU Edwardsville
-35.9983
0.00%
298
299
Missouri Kansas City
-36.0835
0.00%
289
300
Northern Arizona
-36.1127
0.00%
261
301
Chicago St.
-36.1985
0.00%
320
302
Utah Valley
-36.6079
0.00%
310
303
Radford
-37.0471
0.00%
324
304
San Jose St.
-37.1320
0.00%
257
305
Siena
-37.2074
0.00%
292
306
Seattle
-37.3900
0.00%
299
307
Monmouth
-37.4498
0.00%
275
308
Austin Peay
-37.7587
0.00%
317
309
New Hampshire
-38.0001
0.00%
295
310
Tennessee Martin
-38.1314
0.00%
305
311
NC Wilmington
-38.2607
0.00%
294
312
NC Greensboro
-38.3569
0.00%
326
313
MD Baltimore County
-38.5389
0.00%
296
314
Alcorn St.
-38.6629
0.00%
316
315
Southern Utah
-38.8079
0.00%
302
316
Wisconsin Milwaukee
-38.9447
0.00%
301
317
Eastern Washington
-39.4207
0.00%
311
318
Alabama St.
-39.8414
0.00%
328
319
Old Dominion
-40.1907
0.00%
313
320
St. Peter's
-40.4644
0.00%
290
321
St. Francis PA
-41.4992
0.00%
319
322
Coppin St.
-41.5377
0.00%
322
323
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-41.5902
0.00%
323
324
Hofstra
-41.7220
0.00%
315
325
Alabama A&M
-42.0694
0.00%
329
326
Navy
-42.8250
0.00%
303
327
Florida A&M
-42.9915
0.00%
331
328
Rice
-43.0448
0.00%
306
329
Northern Illinois
-43.0775
0.00%
333
330
Longwood
-43.5789
0.00%
335
331
The Citadel
-43.7606
0.00%
332
332
UC Riverside
-44.2947
0.00%
337
333
Louisiana Monroe
-44.5793
0.00%
300
334
Howard
-44.5849
0.00%
334
335
Portland St.
-45.2389
0.00%
330
336
Presbyterian
-45.9187
0.00%
341
337
Fairleigh Dickinson
-45.9908
0.00%
309
338
Mississippi Valley St.
-46.1819
0.00%
345
339
Idaho St.
-46.1935
0.00%
336
340
IUPUI
-46.9065
0.00%
327
341
Furman
-47.7976
0.00%
343
342
South Carolina St.
-49.6041
0.00%
338
343
Kennesaw St.
-49.7593
0.00%
342
344
Maryland Eastern Shore
-49.9987
0.00%
344
345
Binghamton
-50.6324
0.00%
340
346
Lamar
-51.3177
0.00%
339
347
Grambling
-57.1563
0.00%
347
   

This page last updated on Sunday, March 17, 2013 at 5:42 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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