NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2012, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. In addition to various team performance metrics, the rankings shown below reflect historical conference-related biases found in the past committee decisions on which the Dance Card was based. The "unbiased" rankings for this season, in which we have removed the historical biases from the calculations, can be found here.

This season the "biased" Dance Card correctly predicted 35 of 37 at-large bids (95%). The "unbiased" version correctly predicted 36 of 37 bids (97%), suggesting that this year's committee closely followed the performance-related patterns of past committees, without also showing similar historical biases.

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. (Although the bubble line reflects this year's 68-team (37 at-large bid) field, the probability shown reflects a 65-team (34 at-large bid) Tournament.) The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Kentucky
15.1843
100.00%
2
2
Syracuse
14.8322
100.00%
1
3
@Michigan St.
14.7216
100.00%
4
4
Kansas
14.7073
100.00%
6
5
@Missouri
14.3467
100.00%
11
6
Ohio St.
13.1386
100.00%
7
7
North Carolina
12.4053
100.00%
3
8
Baylor
11.2171
100.00%
8
9
Duke
10.8083
100.00%
5
10
Michigan
10.6827
100.00%
17
11
@Florida St.
9.3031
100.00%
10
12
@New Mexico
8.7936
100.00%
25
13
Marquette
8.6515
100.00%
9
14
@Louisville
8.3039
100.00%
12
15
Wisconsin
8.0463
100.00%
18
16
@Vanderbilt
7.6192
100.00%
15
17
Indiana
7.3573
100.00%
20
18
Georgetown
7.3011
100.00%
16
19
@Memphis
6.9725
100.00%
14
20
@St. Mary's
6.0080
100.00%
28
21
Temple
5.5592
100.00%
21
22
Wichita St.
5.2861
100.00%
13
23
Cincinnati
5.0272
100.00%
38
24
Florida
4.9533
100.00%
27
25
San Diego St.
4.9062
100.00%
23
26
Kansas St.
4.8848
100.00%
40
27
Gonzaga
4.5427
100.00%
26
28
Iowa St.
4.5366
100.00%
33
29
Notre Dame
3.9962
100.00%
36
30
Nevada Las Vegas
3.8766
99.99%
22
31
@Creighton
3.7563
99.99%
24
32
@Murray St.
3.5196
99.98%
19
33
St. Louis
3.2729
99.95%
32
34
Purdue
2.9206
99.83%
37
35
Alabama
2.7024
99.66%
35
36
California
2.6794
99.63%
39
37
Southern Mississippi
1.7793
96.24%
29
38
Brigham Young
1.5679
94.15%
46
39
@Harvard
1.4773
93.02%
42
40
Texas
1.4733
92.97%
41
41
North Carolina St.
1.3899
91.77%
34
42
Connecticut
1.2694
89.79%
30
43
@Colorado
1.0066
84.29%
60
44
@Virginia Commonwealth
0.7684
77.89%
47
45
Xavier
0.7640
77.76%
43
46
@Belmont
0.6860
75.36%
73
47
Virginia
0.6462
74.09%
48
48
@Long Beach St.
0.4316
66.70%
53
49
Washington (miss)
0.1956
57.75%
62
50
Drexel (miss)
0.1879
57.45%
69
51
@New Mexico St.
-0.2701
39.35%
57
52
Iona
-0.3626
35.85%
52
53
West Virginia
-0.4207
33.70%
44
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
54
Colorado St. (miss)
-0.5029
30.75%
31
55
Oregon
-0.7335
23.16%
50
56
@Davidson
-1.0640
14.37%
68
57
Arizona
-1.1682
12.14%
74
58
Marshall
-1.3454
8.92%
45
59
Miami FL
-1.3977
8.11%
55
60
Nevada
-1.5892
5.60%
54
61
Middle Tennessee
-1.7209
4.26%
66
62
South Florida (miss)
-1.8808
3.00%
51
63
Oral Roberts
-1.8861
2.96%
63
64
@South Dakota St.
-2.2113
1.35%
71
65
@St. Bonaventure
-2.3562
0.92%
81
66
Akron
-2.8133
0.25%
65
67
Saint Joseph's
-2.8284
0.23%
67
68
Dayton
-2.8933
0.19%
72
69
Mississippi
-3.0160
0.13%
59
70
@Ohio
-3.2064
0.07%
61
71
Central Florida
-3.2248
0.06%
58
72
Mississippi St.
-3.2437
0.06%
64
73
Stanford
-3.2895
0.05%
92
74
Tennessee
-3.3588
0.04%
75
75
Seton Hall
-3.4312
0.03%
56
76
@Montana
-4.2674
0.00%
77
77
Northwestern
-4.2965
0.00%
49
78
Massachusetts
-4.3623
0.00%
79
79
UCLA
-5.0327
0.00%
110
80
Cleveland St.
-5.2668
0.00%
87
81
George Mason
-5.8777
0.00%
90
82
La Salle
-6.7697
0.00%
91
83
Denver
-6.8883
0.00%
100
84
Louisiana St.
-6.8991
0.00%
80
85
Weber St.
-7.1561
0.00%
85
86
Valparaiso
-7.3358
0.00%
106
87
Northern Iowa
-7.3928
0.00%
76
88
Old Dominion
-7.4712
0.00%
96
89
@Loyola MD
-7.5446
0.00%
94
90
Princeton
-7.5662
0.00%
104
91
Minnesota
-7.5885
0.00%
70
92
Loyola Marymount
-7.8917
0.00%
107
93
Buffalo
-7.9500
0.00%
89
94
Iowa
-8.0677
0.00%
112
95
Pennsylvania
-8.0700
0.00%
93
96
Tulsa
-8.0858
0.00%
116
97
Wyoming
-8.1404
0.00%
82
98
Illinois St.
-8.3673
0.00%
99
99
@Long Island
-8.4435
0.00%
103
100
Texas Arlington
-8.4937
0.00%
127
101
@Detroit
-8.5602
0.00%
129
102
Bucknell
-8.5889
0.00%
97
103
Wagner
-8.5938
0.00%
95
104
@NC Asheville
-8.8000
0.00%
111
105
UAB
-8.8325
0.00%
108
106
Oklahoma St.
-9.1911
0.00%
109
107
Texas Christian
-9.2907
0.00%
101
108
Butler
-9.3657
0.00%
115
109
@Lehigh
-9.3903
0.00%
114
110
Fairfield
-9.4166
0.00%
119
111
Illinois
-9.6197
0.00%
78
112
Kent St.
-9.7383
0.00%
113
113
Oregon St.
-9.9448
0.00%
122
114
Clemson
-10.3279
0.00%
142
115
UC Santa Barbara
-10.5061
0.00%
126
116
San Francisco
-10.5585
0.00%
135
117
Georgia St.
-11.0464
0.00%
146
118
Mercer
-11.4419
0.00%
149
119
@Lamar
-11.7355
0.00%
130
120
Maryland
-11.7847
0.00%
88
121
Evansville
-11.8157
0.00%
120
122
Missouri St.
-11.8251
0.00%
124
123
Robert Morris
-12.2884
0.00%
117
124
Wisconsin Milwaukee
-12.4453
0.00%
138
125
Yale
-12.5054
0.00%
134
126
Tennessee St.
-12.6217
0.00%
125
127
Arkansas
-12.8416
0.00%
86
128
Drake
-12.9553
0.00%
131
129
Pittsburgh
-13.1533
0.00%
83
130
Manhattan
-13.2291
0.00%
156
131
Georgia
-13.2683
0.00%
84
132
Utah St.
-13.3331
0.00%
143
133
Idaho
-13.3807
0.00%
152
134
@Norfolk St.
-13.4481
0.00%
136
135
Duquesne
-13.4948
0.00%
102
136
Texas El Paso
-13.8317
0.00%
132
137
College of Charleston
-13.8462
0.00%
123
138
@Vermont
-14.1675
0.00%
147
139
South Carolina Upstate
-14.3999
0.00%
163
140
Virginia Tech
-14.4877
0.00%
98
141
Richmond
-14.5075
0.00%
128
142
Stony Brook
-14.5219
0.00%
166
143
Delaware
-15.0704
0.00%
159
144
Oakland
-15.1893
0.00%
151
145
Indiana St.
-15.3551
0.00%
137
146
Oklahoma
-15.4188
0.00%
118
147
Bowling Green
-15.4342
0.00%
155
148
Tennessee Tech
-15.6838
0.00%
148
149
Rice
-16.0459
0.00%
165
150
Cal St. Fullerton
-16.4270
0.00%
169
151
Arkansas Little Rock
-16.5129
0.00%
173
152
@Western Kentucky
-16.5342
0.00%
171
153
Villanova
-16.6082
0.00%
105
154
@Mississippi Valley St.
-16.7161
0.00%
179
155
South Alabama
-16.8997
0.00%
168
156
Western Illinois
-17.0483
0.00%
158
157
Louisiana Tech
-17.2205
0.00%
160
158
Wisconsin Green Bay
-17.3813
0.00%
157
159
Youngstown St.
-17.4899
0.00%
182
160
Rutgers
-17.8541
0.00%
139
161
Washington St.
-17.9296
0.00%
174
162
American
-18.0670
0.00%
164
163
North Texas
-18.2050
0.00%
200
164
Quinnipiac
-18.2077
0.00%
167
165
East Tennessee St.
-18.2656
0.00%
192
166
Morehead St.
-18.4691
0.00%
175
167
Savannah St.
-18.7265
0.00%
207
168
Louisiana Lafayette
-18.8103
0.00%
185
169
East Carolina
-19.0770
0.00%
153
170
Wofford
-19.2558
0.00%
195
171
Stephen F. Austin
-19.3461
0.00%
208
172
North Dakota St.
-19.3989
0.00%
189
173
Cal St. Bakersfield
-19.4246
0.00%
235
174
Portland St.
-19.5464
0.00%
197
175
St. John's
-19.6339
0.00%
133
176
Charleston Southern
-19.6568
0.00%
180
177
Northeastern
-19.7212
0.00%
190
178
Auburn
-19.8568
0.00%
121
179
Coastal Carolina
-19.9104
0.00%
184
180
Texas A&M
-19.9172
0.00%
145
181
Hawaii
-19.9772
0.00%
181
182
San Diego
-19.9951
0.00%
187
183
Cornell
-20.0928
0.00%
176
184
North Florida
-20.5871
0.00%
191
185
Texas San Antonio
-20.6158
0.00%
209
186
Seattle
-20.7283
0.00%
266
187
Houston
-20.9324
0.00%
188
188
McNeese St.
-21.2423
0.00%
194
189
Cal Poly
-21.3551
0.00%
225
190
Boston University
-21.5361
0.00%
201
191
Air Force
-22.2731
0.00%
150
192
Florida Gulf Coast
-22.3518
0.00%
211
193
Rider
-22.3708
0.00%
199
194
Boise St.
-22.4318
0.00%
154
195
Nebraska
-22.5033
0.00%
140
196
Charlotte
-22.7207
0.00%
170
197
Holy Cross
-22.7942
0.00%
186
198
Providence
-22.8708
0.00%
144
199
Penn St.
-23.0450
0.00%
141
200
Georgia Southern
-23.1769
0.00%
219
201
Jacksonville St.
-23.3118
0.00%
218
202
Toledo
-23.3594
0.00%
230
203
Austin Peay
-23.6168
0.00%
193
204
Western Michigan
-23.6427
0.00%
196
205
Eastern Washington
-23.6670
0.00%
232
206
St. Francis NY
-23.7269
0.00%
222
207
Niagara
-23.9936
0.00%
198
208
Columbia
-24.0151
0.00%
183
209
Georgia Tech
-24.0423
0.00%
178
210
Albany
-24.4276
0.00%
227
211
Wake Forest
-24.4656
0.00%
162
212
George Washington
-24.6058
0.00%
172
213
Western Carolina
-24.7663
0.00%
233
214
Siena
-25.0564
0.00%
205
215
Lafayette
-25.1554
0.00%
206
216
Florida Atlantic
-25.2791
0.00%
216
217
Utah Valley
-25.2883
0.00%
243
218
Campbell
-25.5739
0.00%
228
219
Arkansas St.
-25.9405
0.00%
214
220
Central Connecticut
-26.0928
0.00%
226
221
Bethune Cookman
-26.1921
0.00%
256
222
Southeast Missouri St.
-26.2238
0.00%
249
223
North Carolina Central
-26.4564
0.00%
268
224
Elon
-26.6034
0.00%
236
225
Lipscomb
-26.6045
0.00%
234
226
Delaware St.
-26.7483
0.00%
257
227
Southern Utah
-26.7918
0.00%
239
228
Arizona St.
-26.8764
0.00%
220
229
Wright St.
-26.9803
0.00%
215
230
Eastern Michigan
-27.5443
0.00%
252
231
Northwestern St.
-27.6885
0.00%
229
232
NC Greensboro
-27.6956
0.00%
240
233
IUPUI
-27.7492
0.00%
203
234
South Carolina
-27.8501
0.00%
161
235
Furman
-28.4098
0.00%
242
236
Southern Methodist
-28.4205
0.00%
204
237
DePaul
-28.6172
0.00%
177
238
Presbyterian
-28.8796
0.00%
244
239
North Dakota
-28.9224
0.00%
260
240
Marist
-28.9905
0.00%
210
241
Longwood
-29.1002
0.00%
334
242
Eastern Kentucky
-29.3447
0.00%
231
243
Fresno St.
-29.4917
0.00%
224
244
Boston College
-29.5440
0.00%
202
245
Texas Southern
-29.5940
0.00%
263
246
Sacred Heart
-29.6460
0.00%
241
247
Ball St.
-30.0914
0.00%
258
248
Monmouth
-30.2170
0.00%
246
249
Miami OH
-30.3846
0.00%
221
250
UC Irvine
-30.9617
0.00%
248
251
Coppin St.
-31.0782
0.00%
284
252
NC Wilmington
-31.1388
0.00%
217
253
Virginia Military Inst
-31.4520
0.00%
269
254
UC Riverside
-31.4943
0.00%
259
255
Southern
-31.5154
0.00%
297
256
Tulane
-31.5458
0.00%
223
257
Northern Colorado
-31.8206
0.00%
253
258
High Point
-31.8957
0.00%
264
259
Rhode Island
-32.3210
0.00%
251
260
Appalachian St.
-32.3784
0.00%
255
261
Montana St.
-32.7729
0.00%
281
262
Florida International
-32.7765
0.00%
261
263
Winthrop
-33.1170
0.00%
276
264
Liberty
-33.4414
0.00%
278
265
NJ Inst of Technology
-33.4876
0.00%
303
266
Portland
-33.5179
0.00%
237
267
Fordham
-33.8023
0.00%
212
268
Samford
-33.8161
0.00%
272
269
Southern Illinois
-34.1474
0.00%
247
270
Sam Houston St.
-34.3484
0.00%
277
271
Stetson
-34.3564
0.00%
270
272
James Madison
-34.3930
0.00%
262
273
Idaho St.
-34.4368
0.00%
293
274
Pepperdine
-34.5879
0.00%
273
275
Prairie View A&M
-34.7437
0.00%
304
276
Central Michigan
-34.7776
0.00%
279
277
Troy
-34.8849
0.00%
265
278
Texas Tech
-35.3682
0.00%
213
279
Jacksonville
-36.0056
0.00%
271
280
Pacific
-36.0282
0.00%
280
281
New Hampshire
-36.2139
0.00%
291
282
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-36.3284
0.00%
312
283
SIU Edwardsville
-36.7248
0.00%
298
284
Maine
-36.8549
0.00%
282
285
Hofstra
-36.9192
0.00%
238
286
Hampton
-37.0244
0.00%
307
287
Texas Pan American
-37.0871
0.00%
311
288
Eastern Illinois
-37.0940
0.00%
287
289
Morgan St.
-37.3392
0.00%
290
290
Texas St.
-37.4657
0.00%
288
291
North Carolina A&T
-37.6141
0.00%
296
292
Army
-37.6427
0.00%
294
293
Hartford
-37.7237
0.00%
310
294
Sacramento St.
-37.7815
0.00%
315
295
Alabama St.
-37.9566
0.00%
317
296
Howard
-38.0563
0.00%
285
297
Missouri Kansas City
-38.8990
0.00%
267
298
IUPU Fort Wayne
-38.9681
0.00%
275
299
Utah
-38.9882
0.00%
250
300
South Dakota
-39.3701
0.00%
292
301
Mount St. Mary's
-39.4340
0.00%
295
302
Florida A&M
-39.5515
0.00%
318
303
Southern California
-39.6056
0.00%
254
304
Nicholls St.
-40.3545
0.00%
305
305
San Jose St.
-40.4702
0.00%
274
306
Brown
-40.5363
0.00%
306
307
Gardner Webb
-41.0114
0.00%
301
308
Chattanooga
-41.1127
0.00%
289
309
Bradley
-41.2057
0.00%
245
310
Houston Baptist
-41.2716
0.00%
316
311
Southeastern Louisiana
-41.8243
0.00%
313
312
Santa Clara
-42.2148
0.00%
283
313
Illinois Chicago
-42.2163
0.00%
286
314
William & Mary
-42.7673
0.00%
300
315
St. Francis PA
-43.5002
0.00%
308
316
St. Peter's
-43.5184
0.00%
302
317
Dartmouth
-44.0759
0.00%
322
318
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-44.0775
0.00%
320
319
Cal St. Northridge
-44.7036
0.00%
327
320
Colgate
-44.9301
0.00%
299
321
Alcorn St.
-44.9788
0.00%
338
322
Chicago St.
-45.0777
0.00%
337
323
Louisiana Monroe
-45.6012
0.00%
323
324
Northern Illinois
-45.6522
0.00%
330
325
Jackson St.
-46.9116
0.00%
325
326
Maryland Eastern Shore
-47.0739
0.00%
319
327
Loyola Chicago
-47.2086
0.00%
314
328
Central Arkansas
-47.3321
0.00%
321
329
UC Davis
-47.7693
0.00%
335
330
The Citadel
-48.3094
0.00%
324
331
Alabama A&M
-48.9187
0.00%
341
332
Northern Arizona
-49.3061
0.00%
336
333
MD Baltimore County
-49.7376
0.00%
340
334
Grambling
-50.0551
0.00%
342
335
Towson
-51.0719
0.00%
309
336
Canisius
-51.2537
0.00%
332
337
Fairleigh Dickinson
-51.3129
0.00%
328
338
Navy
-51.3534
0.00%
329
339
Radford
-51.9440
0.00%
326
340
Tennessee Martin
-52.0542
0.00%
331
341
Kennesaw St.
-52.8546
0.00%
333
342
Binghamton
-53.4180
0.00%
344
343
Bryant
-54.3084
0.00%
339
344
South Carolina St.
-57.0822
0.00%
343
   

This page last updated on Tuesday, March 13, 2012 at 6:55 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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