NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 13, 2011 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The Dance correctly predicted 34 of the 37 at-large teams this season (or 92% accuracy), missing on Clemson, Florida State, and Virginia Commonwealth. (Given that the authors are graduates of Clemson (Coleman) and Florida State (DuMond and Lynch), they are actually rather happy that the Dance Card ironically was wrong on those two!)

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. (Although the bubble line reflects this year's 68-team (37 at-large bid) field, the probability shown reflects a 65-team (34 at-large bid) Tournament.) The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Kansas
16.1896
100.00%
1
2
@Ohio St.
14.9115
100.00%
2
3
Brigham Young
13.9155
100.00%
4
4
Pittsburgh
13.0496
100.00%
8
5
@Connecticut
12.9962
100.00%
12
6
@San Diego St.
12.8145
100.00%
3
7
Notre Dame
12.5307
100.00%
10
8
Florida
12.0066
100.00%
6
9
Texas
11.7014
100.00%
9
10
@Duke
11.0796
100.00%
5
11
@Kentucky
9.7950
100.00%
11
12
Syracuse
9.5871
100.00%
15
13
Purdue
9.0471
100.00%
14
14
Louisville
8.9462
100.00%
16
15
North Carolina
8.8088
100.00%
7
16
St. John's
8.3314
100.00%
25
17
Georgetown
7.7909
100.00%
13
18
Wisconsin
7.4314
100.00%
18
19
Arizona
7.3480
100.00%
23
20
West Virginia
6.7234
100.00%
20
21
@Washington
6.0223
100.00%
34
22
Texas A&M
5.9648
100.00%
27
23
Xavier
5.4244
100.00%
26
24
@Old Dominion
5.3094
100.00%
19
25
Kansas St.
5.1846
100.00%
21
26
Nevada Las Vegas
4.6886
100.00%
22
27
Cincinnati
4.5401
100.00%
32
28
@Utah St.
4.4879
100.00%
17
29
George Mason
4.3375
100.00%
29
30
Vanderbilt
4.3041
100.00%
24
31
Temple
4.1047
100.00%
33
32
@Richmond
4.0832
100.00%
40
33
Missouri
3.7901
99.99%
37
34
UCLA
3.6984
99.99%
39
35
@Butler
2.9780
99.85%
41
36
Tennessee
2.9401
99.84%
28
37
Penn St.
2.4071
99.20%
31
38
@Gonzaga
2.1288
98.34%
51
39
@Belmont
1.9101
97.19%
67
40
Michigan St.
1.5009
93.33%
42
41
St. Mary's (Dance Card miss)
1.3843
91.69%
46
42
Colorado (Dance Card miss)
1.3188
90.64%
65
43
Villanova
1.2739
89.87%
35
44
Marquette
1.1590
87.68%
52
45
Michigan
1.0577
85.49%
38
46
UAB
0.9682
83.35%
36
47
@Memphis
0.8213
79.43%
30
48
Southern California
-0.0135
49.46%
69
49
Illinois
-0.0140
49.44%
44
50
Georgia
-0.1612
43.60%
43
51
Cleveland St. (Dance Card miss)
-0.2377
40.61%
45
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
52
VCU (Dance Card miss)
-0.3497
36.33%
57
53
@Oakland
-0.3605
35.92%
71
54
Virginia Tech
-0.4766
31.68%
60
55
Missouri St.
-0.8131
20.81%
50
56
Florida St. (Dance Card miss)
-1.0276
15.21%
56
57
Colorado St.
-1.3457
8.92%
53
58
Texas El Paso
-1.3472
8.90%
48
59
Boston College
-1.3748
8.46%
49
60
California
-1.6153
5.31%
63
61
Clemson (Dance Card miss)
-1.6372
5.08%
55
62
Alabama
-1.7809
3.75%
79
63
New Mexico
-1.9696
2.44%
72
64
Washington St.
-2.5405
0.55%
76
65
Wichita St.
-2.6516
0.40%
47
66
@Princeton
-2.8308
0.23%
58
67
Harvard
-3.2425
0.06%
54
68
Valparaiso
-3.4196
0.03%
81
69
College of Charleston
-3.5667
0.02%
86
70
Marshall
-3.6265
0.01%
61
71
Southern Mississippi
-3.8099
0.01%
64
72
@Long Island
-4.0522
0.00%
78
73
Oklahoma St.
-4.2117
0.00%
59
74
Fairfield
-4.2525
0.00%
95
75
Iona
-4.2980
0.00%
80
76
Dayton
-4.3391
0.00%
66
77
@Wofford
-4.3785
0.00%
114
78
Tulsa
-4.4163
0.00%
75
79
Drexel
-4.4687
0.00%
85
80
Coastal Carolina
-4.8666
0.00%
93
81
Nebraska
-4.9372
0.00%
68
82
Wisconsin Milwaukee
-5.0746
0.00%
96
83
Kent St.
-5.1113
0.00%
84
84
Hofstra
-5.5706
0.00%
87
85
@Bucknell
-5.6349
0.00%
90
86
Long Beach St.
-5.9135
0.00%
97
87
@Indiana St.
-5.9395
0.00%
89
88
Mississippi
-6.0789
0.00%
74
89
Baylor
-6.7032
0.00%
77
90
Rhode Island
-6.8936
0.00%
100
91
Duquesne
-6.9365
0.00%
106
92
Rider
-7.2635
0.00%
104
93
Miami FL
-7.5384
0.00%
73
94
Maryland
-7.6608
0.00%
83
95
East Tennessee St.
-7.8425
0.00%
109
96
Mississippi St.
-7.9141
0.00%
98
97
James Madison
-7.9147
0.00%
88
98
Minnesota
-8.1390
0.00%
70
99
East Carolina
-8.1647
0.00%
92
100
Northwestern
-8.2064
0.00%
82
101
@St. Peter's
-8.2483
0.00%
110
102
Vermont
-8.8973
0.00%
99
103
Boise St.
-8.9040
0.00%
122
104
Central Florida
-9.3661
0.00%
62
105
@Akron
-9.5542
0.00%
115
106
Portland
-9.7492
0.00%
101
107
@Morehead St.
-9.7645
0.00%
94
108
@Northern Colorado
-9.8016
0.00%
125
109
Oregon
-10.1264
0.00%
118
110
Seton Hall
-10.1931
0.00%
91
111
Florida Atlantic
-10.5527
0.00%
128
112
Arkansas
-10.7201
0.00%
105
113
Northern Iowa
-10.9538
0.00%
108
114
Furman
-11.0288
0.00%
132
115
San Francisco
-11.0347
0.00%
120
116
Wright St.
-11.0430
0.00%
129
117
Murray St.
-11.1879
0.00%
116
118
Montana
-11.3969
0.00%
131
119
George Washington
-12.0829
0.00%
137
120
St. Bonaventure
-12.2332
0.00%
124
121
IUPUI
-12.5480
0.00%
133
122
Oral Roberts
-12.7073
0.00%
143
123
Miami OH
-12.7232
0.00%
107
124
Robert Morris
-12.7610
0.00%
123
125
Idaho
-12.8629
0.00%
142
126
New Mexico St.
-12.9271
0.00%
130
127
Quinnipiac
-12.9951
0.00%
136
128
Creighton
-13.4535
0.00%
119
129
Air Force
-13.6448
0.00%
102
130
Santa Clara
-13.6477
0.00%
149
131
@Boston University
-13.7581
0.00%
141
132
American
-13.8208
0.00%
134
133
Virginia
-13.9347
0.00%
126
134
Detroit
-14.0514
0.00%
156
135
Oklahoma
-14.2435
0.00%
103
136
@NC Asheville
-14.4345
0.00%
160
137
Jacksonville
-14.5583
0.00%
161
138
Ohio
-14.5606
0.00%
145
139
Stanford
-14.7144
0.00%
144
140
@UC Santa Barbara
-14.7190
0.00%
165
141
Austin Peay
-14.9763
0.00%
147
142
@Hampton
-15.2466
0.00%
162
143
Utah
-15.4505
0.00%
113
144
Western Michigan
-15.4740
0.00%
172
145
North Texas
-15.5411
0.00%
146
146
Hawaii
-15.8057
0.00%
148
147
Lipscomb
-15.9197
0.00%
158
148
Yale
-15.9470
0.00%
164
149
North Carolina St.
-16.0519
0.00%
111
150
Rutgers
-16.0928
0.00%
112
151
Massachusetts
-16.3119
0.00%
138
152
Ball St.
-16.3677
0.00%
174
153
Delaware
-16.5273
0.00%
154
154
Buffalo
-16.6014
0.00%
169
155
Central Connecticut
-16.6335
0.00%
163
156
Weber St.
-16.9827
0.00%
166
157
South Carolina
-17.0779
0.00%
121
158
South Dakota St.
-17.3080
0.00%
185
159
Davidson
-17.5867
0.00%
195
160
Loyola MD
-17.6313
0.00%
176
161
Evansville
-17.6629
0.00%
135
162
La Salle
-17.9986
0.00%
153
163
North Florida
-18.1653
0.00%
168
164
Pennsylvania
-18.1788
0.00%
181
165
Northern Arizona
-18.3513
0.00%
187
166
@Arkansas Little Rock
-18.3844
0.00%
184
167
McNeese St.
-18.4304
0.00%
175
168
Texas Tech
-18.4980
0.00%
139
169
Iowa St.
-18.5502
0.00%
117
170
Liberty
-18.5988
0.00%
192
171
Western Carolina
-18.7929
0.00%
198
172
Southern Methodist
-18.8760
0.00%
182
173
Nevada
-18.8930
0.00%
179
174
Georgia Tech
-19.0095
0.00%
150
175
IUPU Fort Wayne
-19.4599
0.00%
190
176
Western Kentucky
-19.8023
0.00%
193
177
Arkansas St.
-19.9704
0.00%
188
178
Tennessee Tech
-19.9779
0.00%
186
179
Sam Houston St.
-19.9888
0.00%
180
180
Canisius
-20.0284
0.00%
178
181
Wisconsin Green Bay
-20.2216
0.00%
173
182
Pacific
-20.3419
0.00%
199
183
Appalachian St.
-20.4311
0.00%
202
184
Providence
-20.4597
0.00%
127
185
San Jose St.
-20.5448
0.00%
155
186
St. Louis
-20.6867
0.00%
157
187
Virginia Military Inst
-20.9571
0.00%
210
188
Loyola Chicago
-21.0225
0.00%
183
189
Bethune Cookman
-21.0493
0.00%
208
190
Texas Southern
-21.3159
0.00%
219
191
Cal Poly
-21.5663
0.00%
220
192
Rice
-21.5776
0.00%
167
193
Columbia
-21.5987
0.00%
191
194
Chattanooga
-21.6434
0.00%
201
195
Middle Tennessee
-21.8731
0.00%
217
196
Arizona St.
-21.8843
0.00%
151
197
Iowa
-21.9576
0.00%
159
198
@Texas San Antonio
-22.0794
0.00%
205
199
Mercer
-22.0795
0.00%
212
200
Siena
-22.2930
0.00%
196
201
Wagner
-22.4295
0.00%
177
202
Savannah St.
-23.3694
0.00%
293
203
Maine
-23.5833
0.00%
229
204
Albany
-23.6076
0.00%
227
205
Seattle
-23.7309
0.00%
295
206
St. Francis NY
-23.7684
0.00%
225
207
Louisiana Lafayette
-23.7686
0.00%
223
208
Cornell
-23.8281
0.00%
211
209
Oregon St.
-23.9386
0.00%
200
210
Northeastern
-24.1075
0.00%
170
211
Indiana
-24.2333
0.00%
152
212
Morgan St.
-24.2458
0.00%
221
213
South Florida
-24.3254
0.00%
140
214
Saint Joseph's
-24.4372
0.00%
171
215
North Carolina Central
-24.5097
0.00%
300
216
Lehigh
-25.2377
0.00%
214
217
Fresno St.
-25.4602
0.00%
197
218
NC Wilmington
-25.5911
0.00%
206
219
Cal St. Bakersfield
-25.7331
0.00%
302
220
Utah Valley
-25.7456
0.00%
260
221
Stephen F. Austin
-25.7532
0.00%
235
222
Texas St.
-25.7708
0.00%
226
223
Denver
-25.9458
0.00%
230
224
Cal St. Northridge
-25.9488
0.00%
256
225
Winthrop
-26.0329
0.00%
228
226
Stony Brook
-26.1319
0.00%
246
227
Bowling Green
-26.1444
0.00%
244
228
Missouri Kansas City
-26.2238
0.00%
216
229
Charleston Southern
-26.9448
0.00%
243
230
Pepperdine
-27.0643
0.00%
240
231
Longwood
-27.3611
0.00%
313
232
North Dakota St.
-27.6398
0.00%
241
233
Drake
-27.6565
0.00%
204
234
Georgia St.
-27.8112
0.00%
213
235
Lafayette
-27.8439
0.00%
233
236
Presbyterian
-28.0985
0.00%
222
237
SIU Edwardsville
-28.3441
0.00%
326
238
Coppin St.
-28.5098
0.00%
254
239
Northwestern St.
-28.5752
0.00%
249
240
Southern Illinois
-28.6015
0.00%
194
241
Tennessee St.
-28.6425
0.00%
245
242
Mount St. Mary's
-28.8521
0.00%
237
243
Southeastern Louisiana
-28.9037
0.00%
248
244
North Dakota
-29.7439
0.00%
281
245
Jackson St.
-29.7862
0.00%
271
246
Eastern Kentucky
-30.1051
0.00%
267
247
@Alabama St.
-30.1060
0.00%
277
248
Texas Christian
-30.2452
0.00%
189
249
Elon
-30.2779
0.00%
265
250
North Carolina A&T
-30.3519
0.00%
250
251
Nicholls St.
-30.8115
0.00%
251
252
Louisiana St.
-30.8124
0.00%
203
253
Montana St.
-30.8467
0.00%
261
254
Auburn
-31.0439
0.00%
231
255
Brown
-31.3226
0.00%
242
256
Mississippi Valley St.
-31.4809
0.00%
269
257
Houston
-31.6259
0.00%
224
258
Charlotte
-31.7908
0.00%
209
259
Holy Cross
-32.1614
0.00%
289
260
Norfolk St.
-32.3876
0.00%
273
261
William & Mary
-32.5366
0.00%
215
262
Hartford
-32.6680
0.00%
266
263
Wyoming
-32.7094
0.00%
234
264
UC Riverside
-32.7776
0.00%
264
265
Tulane
-33.0830
0.00%
232
266
Bradley
-33.2011
0.00%
218
267
Southern Utah
-33.2188
0.00%
259
268
Bryant
-33.7950
0.00%
255
269
Portland St.
-33.9186
0.00%
263
270
High Point
-33.9188
0.00%
257
271
NJ Inst of Technology
-34.0954
0.00%
317
272
Central Michigan
-34.1169
0.00%
307
273
Loyola Marymount
-34.1296
0.00%
252
274
Eastern Washington
-34.1620
0.00%
280
275
South Dakota
-34.2789
0.00%
319
276
UC Irvine
-34.4147
0.00%
287
277
St. Francis PA
-34.8956
0.00%
253
278
Troy
-35.0374
0.00%
262
279
Texas Arlington
-35.1608
0.00%
286
280
Alabama A&M
-35.4498
0.00%
311
281
Cal St. Fullerton
-35.5990
0.00%
306
282
South Alabama
-35.6063
0.00%
272
283
Florida Gulf Coast
-35.6984
0.00%
278
284
Navy
-35.7215
0.00%
301
285
New Hampshire
-35.8635
0.00%
283
286
Lamar
-35.8959
0.00%
305
287
Campbell
-36.2010
0.00%
274
288
Sacred Heart
-36.2016
0.00%
284
289
Florida International
-36.4353
0.00%
268
290
DePaul
-36.6560
0.00%
207
291
NC Greensboro
-36.7381
0.00%
290
292
Gardner Webb
-36.9440
0.00%
276
293
Illinois St.
-36.9582
0.00%
238
294
Grambling
-37.1268
0.00%
323
295
Louisiana Tech
-37.2431
0.00%
247
296
Monmouth
-37.9829
0.00%
270
297
The Citadel
-38.1955
0.00%
292
298
Niagara
-38.3580
0.00%
279
299
Wake Forest
-38.7556
0.00%
239
300
UC Davis
-38.9437
0.00%
298
301
Fordham
-38.9779
0.00%
236
302
Northern Illinois
-39.2598
0.00%
314
303
Tennessee Martin
-39.6391
0.00%
296
304
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-39.7587
0.00%
275
305
Stetson
-40.0006
0.00%
303
306
Army
-40.3423
0.00%
299
307
Idaho St.
-40.6414
0.00%
294
308
Southeast Missouri St.
-40.6802
0.00%
308
309
Samford
-40.7521
0.00%
291
310
Youngstown St.
-40.8487
0.00%
258
311
Eastern Michigan
-40.9513
0.00%
322
312
San Diego
-41.3570
0.00%
309
313
Binghamton
-41.5215
0.00%
304
314
Florida A&M
-42.0189
0.00%
328
315
Illinois Chicago
-42.1484
0.00%
282
316
Manhattan
-42.8963
0.00%
288
317
Colgate
-42.9632
0.00%
320
318
Delaware St.
-43.2946
0.00%
318
319
Kennesaw St.
-43.3658
0.00%
315
320
Marist
-43.8798
0.00%
297
321
Maryland Eastern Shore
-43.8968
0.00%
324
322
Sacramento St.
-44.0367
0.00%
329
323
Prairie View A&M
-44.2160
0.00%
335
324
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-44.3114
0.00%
331
325
South Carolina St.
-44.6216
0.00%
333
326
Dartmouth
-44.6411
0.00%
312
327
Eastern Illinois
-45.1370
0.00%
316
328
MD Baltimore County
-45.3664
0.00%
321
329
South Carolina Upstate
-45.5038
0.00%
310
330
Chicago St.
-46.2193
0.00%
341
331
Howard
-47.1441
0.00%
325
332
Houston Baptist
-47.5158
0.00%
344
333
Fairleigh Dickinson
-47.5188
0.00%
327
334
Towson
-47.5750
0.00%
285
335
Texas Pan American
-47.8474
0.00%
343
336
Louisiana Monroe
-48.6419
0.00%
330
337
Jacksonville St.
-49.3995
0.00%
337
338
Alcorn St.
-49.7626
0.00%
339
339
Western Illinois
-49.8196
0.00%
336
340
Radford
-50.6103
0.00%
332
341
Toledo
-51.1456
0.00%
334
342
Southern
-51.8367
0.00%
345
343
Central Arkansas
-53.2049
0.00%
338
344
Georgia Southern
-53.2779
0.00%
340
345
Centenary
-54.1862
0.00%
342

This page last updated on Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 6:59 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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