DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Dance Card

 

 

Dance Card Rankings for 2009 (FINAL)


At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 15, 2009 (all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, which was originally published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on Arizona and Maryland), for a 2009 accuracy of 94%

 

A new feature has been added: the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday and all regular season and conference tournament games had been completed. Because the quality of teams near the bubble line vary from year to year, a team with a relatively low chance of getting a bid in past years may actually be ranked above the current bubble line. When there are teams with less than a 50% historical chance of getting a bid actually ranked above the bubble line, it's an indication of a relatively weak field of at-large candidates for the final slots.A Method to the Madness?

(The RPI figures at right reflect the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally.  This is the version of the RPI on which the Dance Card was originally developed, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.)

Dance Card rankings for other seasons can be found by clicking on the appropriate link below:

2008        2007        2006        2005        2004        2003        2002        2001

Accuracy and Performance of the Dance Card


The Dance Card has missed on more than three spots in only two seasons (2007 and 2008).  Over the last 16 years, the Dance Card has correctly predicted 508 of the 546 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%).  Over the 10-year period (2000 through 2009) for which the Dance Card has been used since its initial development in 1999 (based on 1994 through 1999 data), it has correctly predicted 316 out of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots (92.7%).

The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large Tournament slots (or 97% accuracy). 

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria.  The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.
 

 

General Description of the Dance Card


The Dance Card is a formula derived by Coleman and Lynch as an estimate of the decision rule that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses when picking the teams that will get at-large bids to the NCAA men's basketball tournament.  Using past decisions of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and numerous pieces of information (e.g. RPI rankings, number of wins and losses, conference records, etc.) for all teams that were candidates for at-large selections in those years, Coleman and Lynch devised the Dance Card formula as an estimate of which pieces of information were most important to the Selection Committee, and the weights that the Committee placed on those pieces of information. 

Past Media Attention

The Dance Card has been featured in articles by the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Investor's Business Daily, USA Today, the New York Times, CNN Headline News, UPI, and the Associated Press, two stories from which were picked up by a large number of newspapers and news Web sites, including the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, the Miami Herald, and the San Francisco Chronicle.  The research has also been widely featured in the business intelligence and customer relationship management media, including stories in CIO magazine, the Business Intelligence Journal, eWeek, Information Week, Database Trends & Applications, the Business Intelligence Network, SearchCRM.com, DestinationCRM.com, BI-BestPractices.com, KDnuggets.com, DSstar, and DM Review. It was also the subject of invited lectures at M2004 and M2005, the world's largest data mining conference, as well as numerous television and radio interviews.

Data Sources


In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

Dance Card Authors


Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.
 

Special Thanks to SAS!!


The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.
 

Links of Interest

 

Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com)
CollegeRPI.com
Kenneth Massey (mratings.com)
Inst. for Opns. Research & the Mgt. Sciences (INFORMS)
Interfaces
National Collegiate Athletics Association

 

SAS Institute Inc.
NCAA Final Four Page
University of North Florida
Coggin College of Business at UNF
Mercer University
Stetson School of Business & Economics at Mercer

 

 

E-Mail Addresses


Jay Coleman
Allen Lynch
Sharon Ashton, Assistant VP of Public Relations, University of North Florida
Barry List, Director of Public Relations for INFORMS  

Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on March 15, 2009 at 7:32 p.m.

Rank

Team (@=automatic bid)

Dance Card

Chance of Bid

RPI Rank

1

Michigan St.

15.2419

100.0%

5

2

@Louisville

14.9158

-

3

3

@Duke

13.6389

-

2

4

Kansas

12.0788

100.0%

9

5

North Carolina

11.8403

100.0%

4

6

Pittsburgh

11.8169

100.0%

1

7

@Missouri

11.6702

-

11

8

Oklahoma

11.4080

100.0%

8

9

Connecticut

10.9023

100.0%

6

10

@Purdue

9.6645

-

16

11

Washington

9.1805

100.0%

13

12

Syracuse

8.7371

100.0%

10

13

@Memphis

8.4171

-

7

14

Illinois

8.3905

100.0%

19

15

Wake Forest

8.2363

100.0%

17

16

@Gonzaga

8.1455

-

23

17

@Utah

7.7422

-

14

18

Arizona St.

7.7219

100.0%

28

19

Xavier

6.8637

100.0%

18

20

UCLA

6.4031

100.0%

30

21

Villanova

6.3300

100.0%

12

22

Florida St.

6.2068

100.0%

15

23

Tennessee

5.6569

100.0%

21

24

Ohio St.

5.5016

100.0%

27

25

Texas

5.2265

100.0%

40

26

Louisiana St.

5.2197

100.0%

33

27

Brigham Young

5.1044

100.0%

29

28

Oklahoma St.

5.0324

100.0%

20

29

West Virginia

4.6747

100.0%

22

30

Clemson

4.0171

100.0%

26

31

@Southern California

3.7309

-

37

32

California

3.5698

100.0%

39

33

@Utah St.

3.2822

-

31

34

Marquette

3.2748

99.9%

32

35

Butler

3.0763

99.9%

24

36

Texas A&M

2.4135

99.2%

36

37

@Siena

2.2869

-

25

38

Minnesota

2.2051

98.6%

38

39

Michigan

2.1151

98.3%

42

40

San Diego St. (miss)

2.0874

98.2%

34

41

@Temple

2.0061

-

43

42

@Mississippi St.

1.9395

-

49

43

Boston College

1.0463

85.2%

47

44

Dayton

1.0013

84.2%

35

45

Wisconsin

0.6822

75.2%

45

46

Creighton (miss)

0.6217

73.3%

41

The Bubble Bursts Here

47

Penn St.

0.5073

69.4%

67

48

Arizona (miss)

0.4605

67.7%

54

49

Auburn

0.2286

59.0%

50

50

Maryland (miss)

0.2191

58.7%

44

51

@Northern Iowa

-0.0077

-

60

52

Davidson

-0.0512

48.0%

68

53

Florida

-0.1166

45.4%

53

54

@Western Kentucky

-0.3032

-

62

55

New Mexico

-0.4169

33.8%

65

56

@Cleveland St.

-0.6379

-

70

57

Niagara

-0.6702

25.1%

64

58

St. Mary's

-0.6775

24.9%

51

59

@Virginia Commonwealth

-0.7246

-

61

60

Tulsa

-0.9964

16.0%

57

61

Kentucky

-1.0379

15.0%

71

62

UAB

-1.7029

4.4%

56

63

Nevada Las Vegas

-2.2095

1.4%

63

64

South Carolina

-2.3137

1.0%

58

65

Kansas St.

-2.3378

1.0%

76

66

Baylor

-2.4022

0.8%

46

67

Illinois St.

-2.5665

0.5%

52

68

Miami FL

-2.7996

0.3%

55

69

Providence

-3.2065

0.1%

66

70

Washington St.

-3.3192

0.0%

82

71

Virginia Tech

-3.3971

0.0%

59

72

Rhode Island

-3.4905

0.0%

74

73

Wisconsin Green Bay

-3.8375

0.0%

84

74

Duquesne

-4.0668

0.0%

80

75

Nebraska

-4.3695

0.0%

69

76

@North Dakota St.

-4.3872

-

97

77

Georgetown

-4.4560

0.0%

48

78

Northwestern

-4.7860

0.0%

73

79

George Mason

-5.1198

0.0%

72

80

Arkansas Little Rock

-5.3047

0.0%

90

81

Nevada

-5.3159

0.0%

77

82

Notre Dame

-5.3533

0.0%

78

83

@Stephen F. Austin

-5.3640

-

98

84

Houston

-5.3899

0.0%

86

85

Buffalo

-5.4742

0.0%

94

86

Texas El Paso

-5.7054

0.0%

81

87

Vermont

-5.7219

0.0%

96

88

Wright St.

-6.1650

0.0%

100

89

Weber St.

-6.6229

0.0%

113

90

@American

-6.8500

-

88

91

Vanderbilt

-6.9271

0.0%

85

92

@Binghamton

-7.3442

-

101

93

College of Charleston

-7.7259

0.0%

107

94

Mississippi

-7.8549

0.0%

75

95

La Salle

-8.0127

0.0%

99

96

Saint Joseph's

-8.0936

0.0%

106

97

@Akron

-8.1941

-

112

98

Cincinnati

-8.1950

0.0%

79

99

Alabama

-8.2330

0.0%

89

100

Northeastern

-8.5039

0.0%

103

101

@Portland St.

-8.5398

-

126

102

Old Dominion

-9.0379

0.0%

110

103

Portland

-9.2301

0.0%

125

104

Miami OH

-9.6006

0.0%

102

105

Rider

-9.6506

0.0%

121

106

Richmond

-9.9183

0.0%

124

107

Stanford

-9.9554

0.0%

95

108

@Robert Morris

-10.2467

-

120

109

Wyoming

-10.3301

0.0%

105

110

Seton Hall

-10.3984

0.0%

91

111

@Radford

-10.6192

-

130

112

Bradley

-10.6712

0.0%

109

113

Hofstra

-10.7984

0.0%

114

114

Wisconsin Milwaukee

-10.9333

0.0%

128

115

Boise St.

-10.9792

0.0%

115

116

Fairfield

-11.0490

0.0%

104

117

New Mexico St.

-11.2131

0.0%

116

118

St. Louis

-11.3473

0.0%

117

119

@East Tennessee St.

-11.4382

-

123

120

@Cal St. Northridge

-11.7924

-

151

121

North Texas

-11.8625

0.0%

122

122

@Morgan St.

-11.8699

-

153

123

North Carolina St.

-11.9128

0.0%

92

124

Oakland

-11.9798

0.0%

152

125

@Cornell

-12.2188

-

138

126

Tennessee Martin

-12.5036

0.0%

149

127

Virginia Military Inst

-12.6907

0.0%

135

128

Pacific

-13.0162

0.0%

158

129

Kent St.

-13.0742

0.0%

131

130

Troy

-13.2647

0.0%

145

131

South Alabama

-13.2787

0.0%

141

132

Evansville

-13.3095

0.0%

83

133

Bowling Green

-13.5892

0.0%

162

134

James Madison

-13.6647

0.0%

140

135

Jacksonville

-13.6955

0.0%

143

136

Drexel

-14.2560

0.0%

136

137

Idaho

-14.3222

0.0%

133

138

Oregon St.

-14.5617

0.0%

146

139

Belmont

-14.7306

0.0%

137

140

Oral Roberts

-14.8249

0.0%

167

141

Wichita St.

-15.0127

0.0%

132

142

Sam Houston St.

-15.2466

0.0%

165

143

Murray St.

-15.3595

0.0%

154

144

Boston University

-15.3912

0.0%

157

145

The Citadel

-15.7286

0.0%

177

146

St. John's

-15.7541

0.0%

111

147

Middle Tennessee

-15.9292

0.0%

163

148

Texas A&M Corpus Chris

-15.9637

0.0%

164

149

Mount St. Mary's

-16.0899

0.0%

134

150

Utah Valley

-16.1009

0.0%

227

151

Texas Tech

-16.1477

0.0%

93

152

Massachusetts

-16.2336

0.0%

144

153

Nicholls St.

-16.2656

0.0%

172

154

Liberty

-16.2852

0.0%

168

155

Virginia

-16.3526

0.0%

87

156

Long Beach St.

-16.4262

0.0%

161

157

Austin Peay

-16.7513

0.0%

155

158

Iowa

-16.7739

0.0%

108

159

Manhattan

-16.8717

0.0%

159

160

@Alabama St.

-16.9126

-

205

161

Central Florida

-17.0874

0.0%

148

162

Drake

-17.3378

0.0%

127

163

San Diego

-17.5591

0.0%

185

164

@Morehead St.

-17.6095

-

166

165

Holy Cross

-17.9413

0.0%

171

166

Santa Clara

-17.9799

0.0%

196

167

Montana

-18.0007

0.0%

189

168

Illinois Chicago

-18.1423

0.0%

173

169

Southern Illinois

-18.1884

0.0%

142

170

@Chattanooga

-18.3596

-

179

171

Marshall

-18.4305

0.0%

147

172

UC Santa Barbara

-18.5531

0.0%

174

173

Chicago St.

-18.7143

0.0%

248

174

Navy

-19.4583

0.0%

170

175

Wofford

-19.5079

0.0%

184

176

Texas Christian

-19.7346

0.0%

150

177

Iowa St.

-19.7518

0.0%

129

178

Southern Mississippi

-19.7759

0.0%

139

179

Tulane

-20.1276

0.0%

178

180

Idaho St.

-20.4512

0.0%

193

181

Georgia Tech

-20.8049

0.0%

119

182

Texas San Antonio

-20.8491

0.0%

200

183

Sacred Heart

-21.4094

0.0%

190

184

MD Baltimore County

-21.4425

0.0%

175

185

Louisiana Tech

-21.5705

0.0%

183

186

Eastern Kentucky

-21.8684

0.0%

199

187

Western Carolina

-21.9140

0.0%

197

188

Stony Brook

-21.9739

0.0%

201

189

Ohio

-22.0500

0.0%

182

190

Mercer

-22.1483

0.0%

195

191

Texas Arlington

-22.2014

0.0%

217

192

Arkansas

-22.4785

0.0%

118

193

Cal St. Fullerton

-22.5099

0.0%

206

194

Savannah St.

-22.7545

0.0%

252

195

Jackson St.

-22.9261

0.0%

216

196

St. Bonaventure

-23.3343

0.0%

191

197

Denver

-23.9303

0.0%

223

198

Charlotte

-24.0003

0.0%

186

199

UC Riverside

-24.1391

0.0%

221

200

New Hampshire

-24.2813

0.0%

208

201

San Jose St.

-24.3427

0.0%

192

202

Loyola MD

-24.9704

0.0%

202

203

NC Asheville

-25.0143

0.0%

214

204

Albany

-25.1442

0.0%

181

205

Lipscomb

-25.1728

0.0%

236

206

Indiana St.

-25.3808

0.0%

204

207

Longwood

-25.4080

0.0%

304

208

Iona

-25.6169

0.0%

222

209

Cal St. Bakersfield

-25.6660

0.0%

309

210

IUPUI

-25.7464

0.0%

253

211

Montana St.

-25.8486

0.0%

226

212

Loyola Chicago

-26.0445

0.0%

213

213

South Florida

-26.1530

0.0%

169

214

Presbyterian

-26.3724

0.0%

224

215

UC Irvine

-26.4444

0.0%

242

216

Samford

-26.5708

0.0%

238

217

Georgia

-26.6494

0.0%

160

218

Georgia St.

-26.8968

0.0%

230

219

Oregon

-27.1199

0.0%

156

220

Colorado St.

-27.1441

0.0%

198

221

Bryant

-27.1645

0.0%

311

222

Hampton

-27.3639

0.0%

251

223

Long Island

-27.4032

0.0%

241

224

Lamar

-27.4292

0.0%

215

225

Youngstown St.

-27.5257

0.0%

231

226

Quinnipiac

-27.6231

0.0%

239

227

Gardner Webb

-27.7181

0.0%

244

228

Hawaii

-27.9071

0.0%

203

229

Ball St.

-27.9211

0.0%

247

230

UC Davis

-27.9530

0.0%

267

231

Florida International

-28.0311

0.0%

209

232

Houston Baptist

-28.0369

0.0%

315

233

Coppin St.

-28.0697

0.0%

240

234

Texas Pan American

-28.1185

0.0%

331

235

Northern Colorado

-28.1647

0.0%

274

236

Winston Salem St.

-28.2208

0.0%

333

237

George Washington

-28.2921

0.0%

194

238

Appalachian St.

-28.4126

0.0%

250

239

East Carolina

-28.5569

0.0%

219

240

Yale

-28.6468

0.0%

257

241

South Carolina St.

-28.8787

0.0%

261

242

IUPU Fort Wayne

-28.8876

0.0%

234

243

Harvard

-28.9570

0.0%

254

244

St. Peter's

-29.2910

0.0%

249

245

Rice

-29.4889

0.0%

211

246

Eastern Washington

-29.6805

0.0%

232

247

Campbell

-29.7013

0.0%

258

248

Delaware

-29.7145

0.0%

220

249

Bethune Cookman

-30.1770

0.0%

272

250

Towson

-30.2468

0.0%

218

251

North Carolina Central

-30.2547

0.0%

337

252

Winthrop

-30.3413

0.0%

259

253

NJ Inst of Technology

-30.6986

0.0%

343

254

Princeton

-30.7042

0.0%

280

255

Canisius

-30.9856

0.0%

210

256

Fresno St.

-30.9894

0.0%

212

257

Southern Utah

-31.0137

0.0%

264

258

Southeastern Louisiana

-31.1777

0.0%

263

259

Stetson

-31.1934

0.0%

225

260

Pennsylvania

-31.2394

0.0%

265

261

Texas St.

-31.3644

0.0%

266

262

Columbia

-31.4178

0.0%

276

263

Pepperdine

-31.4372

0.0%

268

264

Rutgers

-31.6485

0.0%

176

265

Lehigh

-31.7846

0.0%

255

266

Central Michigan

-31.8368

0.0%

293

267

Central Connecticut

-31.9028

0.0%

237

268

Prairie View A&M

-32.0801

0.0%

296

269

Arkansas Pine Bluff

-32.1108

0.0%

278

270

Tennessee St.

-32.2915

0.0%

273

271

Wagner

-32.3202

0.0%

256

272

Valparaiso

-32.5362

0.0%

233

273

Louisiana Lafayette

-32.5873

0.0%

243

274

North Carolina A&T

-32.6238

0.0%

287

275

Army

-32.9347

0.0%

275

276

Missouri St.

-32.9782

0.0%

187

277

Norfolk St.

-33.0254

0.0%

302

278

Western Michigan

-33.3744

0.0%

295

279

Colorado

-33.5092

0.0%

207

280

San Francisco

-33.5148

0.0%

260

281

William & Mary

-33.8749

0.0%

228

282

South Dakota St.

-33.9760

0.0%

279

283

Indiana

-34.5099

0.0%

188

284

Marist

-34.5217

0.0%

235

285

Arkansas St.

-34.6101

0.0%

246

286

Southern Methodist

-35.0362

0.0%

229

287

DePaul

-35.4648

0.0%

180

288

Dartmouth

-35.9752

0.0%

312

289

Elon

-35.9854

0.0%

269

290

Eastern Illinois

-36.0122

0.0%

292

291

Northern Arizona

-36.1214

0.0%

289

292

Tennessee Tech

-36.4931

0.0%

270

293

Colgate

-36.6386

0.0%

294

294

New Orleans

-37.0447

0.0%

271

295

South Carolina Upstate

-37.7144

0.0%

281

296

McNeese St.

-37.8651

0.0%

297

297

Louisiana Monroe

-37.9796

0.0%

277

298

Air Force

-38.0350

0.0%

245

299

Jacksonville St.

-38.5431

0.0%

282

300

St. Francis NY

-38.5954

0.0%

283

301

Maine

-38.9067

0.0%

286

302

Eastern Michigan

-39.4123

0.0%

322

303

Centenary

-39.5595

0.0%

301

304

Bucknell

-39.7259

0.0%

284

305

Florida A&M

-40.4809

0.0%

306

306

Cal Poly

-40.6426

0.0%

300

307

Northern Illinois

-40.7947

0.0%

324

308

Florida Gulf Coast

-40.8013

0.0%

288

309

Toledo

-41.1936

0.0%

310

310

Coastal Carolina

-41.3185

0.0%

305

311

Lafayette

-41.3738

0.0%

303

312

Delaware St.

-41.7390

0.0%

308

313

Western Illinois

-41.7681

0.0%

332

314

Southern

-42.0540

0.0%

336

315

NC Wilmington

-42.6637

0.0%

262

316

Monmouth

-42.7061

0.0%

316

317

Texas Southern

-42.7276

0.0%

327

318

Georgia Southern

-42.8573

0.0%

291

319

Brown

-42.9087

0.0%

298

320

Detroit

-43.0381

0.0%

285

321

Fairleigh Dickinson

-43.3543

0.0%

318

322

Loyola Marymount

-43.4890

0.0%

313

323

Howard

-43.4956

0.0%

321

324

Charleston Southern

-44.0500

0.0%

320

325

Hartford

-44.0846

0.0%

299

326

Mississippi Valley St.

-44.3012

0.0%

330

327

Central Arkansas

-44.6512

0.0%

314

328

Northwestern St.

-44.7809

0.0%

319

329

Fordham

-44.9848

0.0%

290

330

Alabama A&M

-45.1407

0.0%

334

331

North Florida

-45.5931

0.0%

325

332

High Point

-45.6104

0.0%

329

333

Missouri Kansas City

-45.8381

0.0%

317

334

NC Greensboro

-47.8126

0.0%

326

335

Florida Atlantic

-48.0560

0.0%

307

336

Furman

-49.2071

0.0%

328

337

Grambling

-49.3107

0.0%

341

338

St. Francis PA

-49.6261

0.0%

323

339

Alcorn St.

-50.2062

0.0%

342

340

Sacramento St.

-50.5314

0.0%

340

341

Maryland Eastern Shore

-50.8282

0.0%

338

342

Kennesaw St.

-52.2420

0.0%

335

343

Southeast Missouri St.

-55.7443

0.0%

339