DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Dance Card

 

 

Dance Card Rankings for 2007 (FINAL)


At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2007 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games) according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The Dance Card correctly predicted 30 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on Georgia Tech, Indiana, Stanford, and Texas Tech), for a 2007 accuracy of 88%[Note: Missouri State becomes the highest ranked team ever to not get a bid, and Texas Tech becomes the lowest ranked team -- and by a substantial margin the team furthest below the bubble line -- ever to get a bid.  Stanford also surpasses the previous mark for being furthest below the bubble line to get a bid.]

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

 

Data Sources


In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

Dance Card Authors


Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.
 

Special Thanks to SAS!!


The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.
 

Links of Interest

 

Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com)
CollegeRPI.com
Kenneth Massey (mratings.com)
Inst. for Opns. Research & the Mgt. Sciences (INFORMS)
Interfaces
National Collegiate Athletics Association

 

SAS Institute Inc.
NCAA Final Four Page
University of North Florida
Coggin College of Business at UNF
Mercer University
Stetson School of Business & Economics at Mercer

 

 

E-Mail Addresses


Jay Coleman
Allen Lynch
Sharon Ashton, Assistant VP of Public Relations, University of North Florida
Barry List, Director of Public Relations for INFORMS  

Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on January 26, 2008 at 2:57 p.m.

 

Rank

Team

Dance Card

RPI Rank

1

@Ohio St.

10.1520

1

2

@Kansas

8.7256

8

3

UCLA

8.4316

3

4

@Florida

8.3871

7

5

@North Carolina

8.2429

2

6

Wisconsin

7.9401

5

7

@Georgetown

7.7637

6

8

Pittsburgh

7.7446

4

9

Southern Illinois

6.4720

11

10

@Memphis

6.4581

9

11

@Nevada Las Vegas

5.5972

12

12

@Creighton

4.9936

22

13

Texas A&M

4.9110

17

14

Kentucky

4.8659

13

15

Washington St.

4.5874

29

16

Texas

4.5480

28

17

Nevada

4.5188

25

18

Brigham Young

4.3538

23

19

@Oregon

4.1993

20

20

Tennessee

4.1086

15

21

Arizona

3.9817

10

22

Xavier

3.6622

34

23

Duke

3.6393

14

24

Louisville

3.5767

24

25

Maryland

3.5589

16

26

Villanova

2.9881

18

27

Marquette

2.8971

19

28

Butler

2.8586

30

29

Boston College

2.7520

26

30

Notre Dame

2.6412

42

31

Southern California

2.4155

36

32

Missouri St. (Miss)

2.0589

35

33

Michigan St.

1.7626

21

34

@Virginia Commonwealth

1.6587

43

35

Vanderbilt

1.4721

38

36

Air Force (Miss)

1.4720

37

37

Syracuse (Miss)

1.4428

32

38

Illinois

1.4269

27

39

Virginia Tech

1.2780

33

40

Arkansas

1.2357

31

41

Virginia

1.1780

50

42

Clemson (Miss)

0.9782

40

43

Purdue

0.7843

44

44

Old Dominion

0.5752

45

The Bubble Bursts Here

45

Georgia Tech (Miss)

0.5076

49

46

@Davidson

-0.0155

56

47

Indiana (Miss)

-0.2556

47

48

Georgia

-0.2989

55

49

@Winthrop

-0.3992

78

50

Oklahoma St.

-0.5360

48

51

@Gonzaga

-0.7102

57

52

Bradley

-0.8617

41

53

Kansas St.

-0.9154

63

54

Akron

-1.0211

69

55

Michigan

-1.0517

46

56

@New Mexico St.

-1.1505

71

57

Vermont

-1.1833

81

58

@Holy Cross

-1.2321

68

59

Appalachian St.

-1.2742

76

60

West Virginia

-1.2923

58

61

Stanford (Miss)

-1.4382

54

62

Massachusetts

-1.4774

66

63

Drexel

-1.6117

53

64

Florida St.

-1.6723

39

65

San Diego St.

-1.6922

64

66

Mississippi St.

-1.8771

59

67

Alabama

-1.8985

51

68

Texas Tech (Miss)

-1.9220

52

69

Mississippi

-1.9639

60

70

Utah St.

-2.1467

61

71

@Pennsylvania

-2.1999

85

72

@Wright St.

-2.2215

84

73

DePaul

-2.5046

65

74

Providence

-2.5151

62

75

Fresno St.

-3.2478

79

76

Bucknell

-3.2947

94

77

Hofstra

-3.3605

89

78

St. Louis

-3.4125

80

79

North Carolina St.

-3.5745

67

80

@Long Beach St.

-3.6739

92

81

Northern Iowa

-3.8311

88

82

@George Washington

-3.8465

77

83

@Texas A&M Corpus Chris

-3.9382

93

84

Houston

-3.9687

83

85

@Albany

-3.9831

98

86

Washington

-3.9851

70

87

@Oral Roberts

-4.1866

100

88

Iowa

-4.1963

87

89

Dayton

-4.4711

74

90

Missouri

-4.5492

72

91

Toledo

-5.2207

107

92

Santa Clara

-5.2492

97

93

California

-5.2615

75

94

Hawaii

-5.3517

91

95

Western Kentucky

-5.5367

105

96

Auburn

-5.6284

90

97

Marist

-5.7012

114

98

Kent St.

-5.7858

102

99

Nebraska

-5.8627

95

100

Louisiana St.

-5.9390

73

101

Saint Joseph's

-5.9425

101

102

@Miami OH

-6.0040

103

103

East Tennessee St.

-6.0165

126

104

@Belmont

-6.1348

124

105

@Niagara

-6.3291

131

106

Oklahoma

-6.4592

82

107

Rhode Island

-6.6191

109

108

Central Florida

-6.9479

123

109

Austin Peay

-6.9756

128

110

Fordham

-7.0113

113

111

Wichita St.

-7.0139

99

112

Tulsa

-7.1886

112

113

Connecticut

-7.1949

86

114

Wyoming

-7.2130

118

115

@Central Connecticut

-7.2571

142

116

College of Charleston

-7.3191

117

117

Loyola Chicago

-7.3378

104

118

St. John's

-7.3537

108

119

Boise St.

-7.4063

116

120

Ohio

-7.5000

115

121

Colorado St.

-7.6202

111

122

Utah

-7.8901

120

123

Sam Houston St.

-7.9324

129

124

Southern Mississippi

-7.9672

125

125

@Eastern Kentucky

-7.9986

141

126

Siena

-8.0506

134

127

South Carolina

-8.2731

96

128

South Alabama

-8.4282

136

129

Drake

-8.4377

106

130

Wake Forest

-8.5138

110

131

Delaware St.

-8.6548

144

132

Oakland

-8.9918

139

133

@North Texas

-9.2175

147

134

George Mason

-9.2837

121

135

@Weber St.

-9.6872

153

136

Cal Poly

-9.7411

148

137

Yale

-9.9258

150

138

UC Santa Barbara

-10.0332

155

139

Tulane

-10.1545

149

140

Iowa St.

-10.2692

122

141

Indiana St.

-10.3501

127

142

Northern Arizona

-10.4820

167

143

Tennessee Tech

-10.6970

160

144

Rice

-10.7301

152

145

Sacred Heart

-10.7608

168

146

Western Michigan

-10.7773

154

147

UAB

-10.7813

137

148

Cal St. Fullerton

-10.8521

163

149

Baylor

-11.2378

119

150

Loyola MD

-11.3440

181

151

Seton Hall

-11.4296

132

152

Illinois St.

-11.5456

133

153

Marshall

-11.5676

159

154

Evansville

-11.7669

130

155

Cincinnati

-11.8526

135

156

Middle Tennessee

-11.9356

164

157

St. Mary's

-12.0089

156

158

Arkansas St.

-12.0206

177

159

New Mexico

-12.1501

140

160

Cornell

-12.2764

174

161

Florida Atlantic

-12.3012

173

162

Valparaiso

-12.4440

176

163

Utah Valley St.

-12.4456

146

164

Miami FL

-12.6200

145

165

Charlotte

-12.6865

138

166

Texas Christian

-12.7176

157

167

@Florida A&M

-12.7800

190

168

Samford

-12.7863

182

169

Murray St.

-12.8386

189

170

UC Irvine

-12.9284

178

171

Northwestern St.

-13.1592

183

172

San Francisco

-13.2320

169

173

Illinois Chicago

-13.2866

161

174

Temple

-13.3973

166

175

High Point

-13.6938

200

176

Texas El Paso

-13.7081

170

177

Wisconsin Green Bay

-13.8247

175

178

Youngstown St.

-13.8807

172

179

Towson

-13.8935

158

180

@Jackson St.

-14.0313

197

181

Northwestern

-14.4332

143

182

Columbia

-14.8608

199

183

NC Greensboro

-14.9062

210

184

Lipscomb

-14.9400

201

185

North Dakota St.

-14.9859

184

186

San Diego

-14.9868

185

187

Portland St.

-15.0085

203

188

Fairfield

-15.0312

195

189

Rider

-15.0363

205

190

Penn St.

-15.1116

151

191

South Florida

-15.1594

165

192

Robert Morris

-15.2760

202

193

Jacksonville

-15.3028

211

194

Northeastern

-15.3414

180

195

Montana

-15.3862

212

196

Furman

-15.4495

198

197

Louisiana Tech

-15.4521

193

198

William & Mary

-15.4990

179

199

Loyola Marymount

-15.5161

186

200

American

-15.6015

192

201

Mississippi Valley St.

-15.6599

219

202

Lamar

-15.8649

216

203

Minnesota

-15.9078

162

204

Louisiana Monroe

-15.9167

217

205

Manhattan

-15.9750

227

206

Eastern Washington

-16.1930

209

207

Harvard

-16.3003

194

208

IUPUI

-16.3850

206

209

Duquesne

-16.4379

218

210

Southern Methodist

-16.5397

188

211

Idaho St.

-16.6109

207

212

New Orleans

-16.7817

215

213

Boston University

-16.7843

208

214

Pacific

-16.8989

204

215

Detroit

-16.9767

196

216

Quinnipiac

-17.0168

239

217

Central Michigan

-17.3672

224

218

Rutgers

-17.3853

187

219

Oregon St.

-17.4254

171

220

Troy

-17.5544

226

221

Hampton

-17.5626

228

222

Chattanooga

-17.6235

214

223

Arkansas Little Rock

-17.6833

233

224

Southern Utah

-17.8007

220

225

Brown

-18.0074

235

226

Eastern Michigan

-18.1209

225

227

Arizona St.

-18.2710

191

228

Fairleigh Dickinson

-18.4229

240

229

Buffalo

-18.4774

222

230

Lehigh

-18.5633

236

231

Cal St. Northridge

-18.6323

238

232

Colorado

-18.6813

213

233

MD Baltimore County

-18.6908

223

234

McNeese St.

-18.7248

242

235

Southeastern Louisiana

-18.7425

237

236

Hartford

-19.3286

232

237

Stephen F. Austin

-19.5056

244

238

Florida International

-19.5257

253

239

Missouri Kansas City

-19.6722

245

240

Bowling Green

-19.6895

234

241

Wisconsin Milwaukee

-19.8291

231

242

Navy

-19.9910

229

243

Mount St. Mary's

-20.1413

265

244

Binghamton

-20.4019

250

245

Army

-20.5693

230

246

Dartmouth

-20.6189

246

247

Louisiana Lafayette

-20.7261

261

248

Canisius

-20.7743

255

249

Georgia Southern

-20.8050

248

250

Maine

-20.8956

268

251

Kennesaw St.

-21.1635

274

252

Coastal Carolina

-21.1937

263

253

Mercer

-21.2225

276

254

Tennessee St.

-21.2795

264

255

IUPU Fort Wayne

-21.2894

254

256

Montana St.

-21.3247

281

257

Gardner Webb

-21.4621

260

258

Georgia St.

-21.5019

221

259

Liberty

-21.5023

279

260

Monmouth

-21.5062

252

261

North Carolina A&T

-21.5322

285

262

Campbell

-21.5353

266

263

Texas Arlington

-21.5483

273

264

San Jose St.

-21.5763

241

265

Coppin St.

-21.8461

259

266

NC Asheville

-21.8815

271

267

Portland

-21.8824

256

268

Norfolk St.

-21.9474

283

269

La Salle

-22.0212

243

270

Ball St.

-22.0330

257

271

Chicago St.

-22.1163

247

272

Colgate

-22.1603

262

273

Morehead St.

-22.4542

287

274

Arkansas Pine Bluff

-22.5123

280

275

Morgan St.

-22.5980

304

276

New Hampshire

-22.6051

272

277

Western Carolina

-22.6058

258

278

Richmond

-22.7177

249

279

Princeton

-22.8681

267

280

Grambling

-22.9247

296

281

Southern

-23.0742

288

282

Southeast Missouri St.

-23.1272

293

283

Savannah St.

-23.1405

278

284

Stetson

-23.2513

282

285

South Carolina St.

-23.3643

294

286

Pepperdine

-23.3740

269

287

NC Wilmington

-23.3996

251

288

St. Bonaventure

-23.5160

275

289

Wagner

-23.5377

297

290

Texas Southern

-23.7413

290

291

St. Francis NY

-23.7425

286

292

Cleveland St.

-23.7743

270

293

Texas Pan American

-23.8873

298

294

Virginia Military Inst

-24.0358

305

295

Sacramento St.

-24.2927

299

296

Alcorn St.

-24.6838

322

297

UC Davis

-24.6934

308

298

Jacksonville St.

-24.7023

310

299

James Madison

-24.7201

289

300

Northern Illinois

-24.7552

292

301

Centenary

-24.7823

277

302

Long Island

-24.7833

313

303

Stony Brook

-24.8223

284

304

Eastern Illinois

-24.8997

306

305

Nicholls St.

-25.0726

295

306

Alabama St.

-25.5778

312

307

NJ Inst of Technology

-25.6519

331

308

Lafayette

-25.8239

291

309

Central Arkansas

-25.8839

314

310

Longwood

-25.9322

307

311

Winston Salem St.

-26.0590

315

312

Bethune Cookman

-26.3152

323

313

Prairie View A&M

-26.3374

327

314

Tennessee Martin

-26.4222

318

315

South Dakota St.

-26.5273

329

316

Howard

-26.5829

324

317

Wofford

-26.6255

303

318

St. Francis PA

-26.7045

320

319

East Carolina

-26.7152

311

320

Elon

-26.7283

301

321

Texas St.

-26.7304

321

322

Delaware

-27.0152

300

323

UC Riverside

-27.0210

317

324

Idaho

-27.2307

302

325

Radford

-27.2689

319

326

Texas San Antonio

-27.4176

316

327

Western Illinois

-27.4641

326

328

Denver

-27.6595

332

329

St. Peter's

-27.6667

330

330

The Citadel

-27.9407

309

331

Northern Colorado

-28.0802

336

332

Iona

-28.0888

325

333

North Florida

-28.1108

334

334

Alabama A&M

-28.3871

333

335

Charleston Southern

-28.7715

328

336

Maryland Eastern Shore

-29.8234

335