DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2006 (FINAL)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 12, 2006 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences).

The Dance Card correctly predicted 31 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on Northern Iowa, Seton Hall, and Air Force), for a 2006 accuracy of 91%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, Bill Rose, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on Monday February 26, 2007 10:28 PM

 

Rank   Team (@=auto. bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 @ Duke 10.7555 1
2   Villanova 9.5791 2
3   Connecticut 9.0877 4
4 @ Memphis 8.5919 3
5   Ohio St. 7.7533 5
6   North Carolina 7.1193 8
7 @ Kansas 7.0130 17
8   Texas 6.9428 9
9 @ Iowa 6.8005 11
10   Louisiana St. 5.9712 12
11   Pittsburgh 5.8354 14
12   Illinois 5.5860 15
13 @ UCLA 5.5548 7
14 @ Gonzaga 5.4475 13
15 @ Florida 5.4081 16
16 @ Nevada 4.7903 20
17   Tennessee 4.6859 6
18   Boston College 4.4025 21
19 @ Syracuse 4.1885 10
20 @ Southern Illinois 4.0115 32
21   Wisconsin 3.8018 22
22   West Virginia 3.5879 30
23   Oklahoma 3.3890 18
24   George Washington 3.2082 36
25   Michigan St. 3.1258 19
26   Wichita St. 2.9503 23
27 @ NC Wilmington 2.7918 38
28   Indiana 2.7353 33
29   Washington 2.6227 28
30   Arizona 2.4925 24
31   North Carolina St. 2.2333 43
32   UAB 2.0831 40
33   Georgetown 1.9867 41
34   Texas A&M 1.9155 35
35   Kentucky 1.9125 31
36   Cincinnati (Miss) 1.8226 26
37   Bradley 1.7395 45
38 @ Bucknell 1.6737 48
39   Marquette 1.6248 29
40   Hofstra (Miss) 1.5078 46
41   George Mason 1.0358 34
42 @ Kent St. 0.9403 52
43   Utah St. 0.8820 51
44   Missouri St. (Miss) 0.7621 25
45   Arkansas 0.7620 42
46   Alabama 0.6898 39
47   California 0.6566 50
The Bubble Bursts Here
48   Creighton 0.6451 44
49 @ San Diego St. 0.6426 56
50   Northern Iowa (Miss) 0.4700 27
51   Michigan 0.1872 47
52 @ Wisconsin Milwaukee -0.0549 58
53   Western Kentucky -0.1786 54
54   Maryland -0.1861 37
55   Seton Hall (Miss) -0.3094 49
56   Air Force (Miss) -0.7447 60
57 @ South Alabama -0.9285 71
58   Florida St. -1.0935 64
59 @ Murray St. -1.5242 72
60   Colorado -1.7686 63
61   South Carolina -1.8182 55
62 @ Northwestern St. -1.8320 81
63 @ Iona -1.8961 62
64   Saint Joseph's -1.9637 53
65   Brigham Young -2.0930 70
66   Vanderbilt -2.1867 59
67   Temple -2.1926 74
68 @ Montana -2.2250 73
69   Louisville -2.2798 57
70 @ Xavier -2.6463 68
71   Rutgers -2.6639 66
72   Houston -2.7500 61
73 @ Pacific -2.7724 96
74 @ Winthrop -2.8001 86
75   Texas El Paso -2.9463 84
76   Old Dominion -3.1224 76
77   Minnesota -3.3845 65
78   Akron -3.5216 87
79   Louisiana Tech -3.6177 82
80   Clemson -3.9402 75
81   Nebraska -3.9691 79
82   Miami FL -4.1631 69
83   Manhattan -4.1745 98
84 @ Pennsylvania -4.1941 95
85   Stanford -4.2742 91
86   Virginia -4.4676 77
87   Wake Forest -4.5386 67
88   Oklahoma St. -4.7041 78
89   New Mexico St. -4.7231 106
90   Iowa St. -4.8270 80
91   Hawaii -5.0186 92
92   Penn St. -5.4065 88
93   Nevada Las Vegas -5.4535 90
94   St. Louis -5.6473 104
95 @ Davidson -5.6930 115
96   Kansas St. -5.7507 93
97   Virginia Commonwealth -5.7845 85
98   Miami OH -5.8586 97
99   Northern Arizona -6.0624 124
100   Butler -6.1733 102
101   Notre Dame -6.1739 83
102   Samford -6.3969 118
103   Marist -6.5700 111
104 @ Belmont -6.7233 133
105   Charlotte -6.8317 107
106 @ Albany -6.9409 134
107   Northeastern -7.1398 109
108   La Salle -7.2800 110
109   Northwestern -7.4544 100
110   St. Mary's -7.4782 113
111   DePaul -7.5496 89
112   Sam Houston St. -7.5647 127
113   Georgia -7.6436 103
114   Ohio -7.6773 105
115   Southern California -7.9033 108
116   Holy Cross -8.0394 117
117   Coastal Carolina -8.0569 143
118   Northern Illinois -8.0830 128
119   Providence -8.2163 94
120   Mississippi St. -8.3014 99
121   Middle Tennessee -8.3348 120
122 @ Oral Roberts -8.3985 138
123   Texas Tech -8.4871 119
124   Illinois Chicago -8.7019 132
125   New Mexico -8.8185 114
126   Fresno St. -8.8249 123
127   Massachusetts -8.9084 126
128   St. Peter's -8.9451 131
129 @ Monmouth -9.0309 157
130   Tennessee Tech -9.0964 142
131   Siena -9.2115 125
132 @ Southern -9.3886 163
133   Lipscomb -9.4035 160
134   Missouri -9.4375 116
135   Fairleigh Dickinson -9.4620 156
136   St. John's -9.5252 112
137   Delaware St. -9.5486 150
138   Rhode Island -9.7682 137
139   Fordham -9.7937 139
140   Toledo -9.9262 147
141   Central Connecticut -10.0823 166
142   San Diego -10.1273 149
143   Loyola Chicago -10.2284 141
144   Auburn -10.3916 101
145   UC Irvine -10.4090 164
146   Lehigh -10.4290 158
147   Virginia Tech -10.5101 122
148   Mississippi -10.5427 129
149   Oregon -10.6644 130
150   Long Beach St. -10.8092 161
151   Eastern Washington -10.8715 148
152   Loyola Marymount -10.9157 151
153   Utah -11.0179 146
154   Buffalo -11.0240 135
155   Georgia Southern -11.0729 173
156   Gardner Webb -11.2198 177
157   IUPUI -11.2849 175
158   Drexel -11.3104 121
159   Chattanooga -11.4683 171
160   Louisiana Lafayette -11.7415 154
161   Elon -11.7715 179
162   Georgia Tech -11.8269 136
163   Birmingham Southern -11.8328 174
164   Baylor -12.0490 140
165   Binghamton -12.4124 189
166   Indiana St. -12.4460 152
167   San Francisco -12.6415 169
168   Jacksonville St. -12.8528 176
169   College of Charleston -12.8651 185
170   Wisconsin Green Bay -12.8675 178
171   Washington St. -12.9139 155
172   Purdue -13.2374 145
173   Austin Peay -13.3746 170
174   Southeastern Louisiana -13.4989 193
175   Wyoming -13.5145 153
176   Central Florida -13.5496 181
177   Sacramento St. -13.5967 172
178   Princeton -13.6407 201
179   Oregon St. -13.6898 168
180   Detroit -13.7894 180
181   Wright St. -13.8077 187
182   Colorado St. -13.8776 144
183   Denver -13.9521 188
184   Arizona St. -13.9798 159
185   Dayton -14.1423 162
186   Santa Clara -14.1592 186
187   Boise St. -14.3632 167
188   Western Michigan -14.3702 192
189   Florida Atlantic -14.4435 216
190   Eastern Kentucky -14.7669 194
191   High Point -14.8057 190
192   Loyola MD -15.1627 183
193   Lamar -15.3906 202
194   Richmond -15.5174 182
195   Valparaiso -15.6236 200
196   Montana St. -15.6508 213
197   Drake -15.7024 165
198   Radford -15.7884 203
199   East Tennessee St. -15.8072 220
200   Tulsa -15.8459 199
201   Niagara -16.1229 198
202   Yale -16.2047 204
203   Idaho St. -16.2334 205
204   Mount St. Mary's -16.2697 224
205   Towson -16.2770 207
206   Rice -16.3025 197
207   Vermont -16.3680 211
208   Arkansas Little Rock -16.4813 195
209   Robert Morris -16.4846 232
210   Tennessee St. -16.6544 223
211   Furman -16.7597 225
212   Cornell -16.8336 218
213   Boston University -16.8808 215
214   Evansville -16.9133 184
215   North Texas -16.9321 196
216   Harvard -17.0283 208
217   Texas Arlington -17.1541 214
218   McNeese St. -17.2624 230
219   Arkansas St. -17.4559 222
220   American -17.5654 212
221   Marshall -17.5656 209
222   UC Santa Barbara -17.6579 221
223   Tulane -17.6662 219
224   Portland St. -17.7168 217
225   Coppin St. -17.8159 237
226   Appalachian St. -18.1299 239
227   Illinois St. -18.3689 191
228   Portland -18.3725 234
229   Stephen F. Austin -18.3798 248
230   Tennessee Martin -18.3822 228
231   Pepperdine -18.5159 227
232   Wagner -18.7657 235
233   Troy -18.7811 240
234   South Carolina St. -18.7994 246
235   Texas A&M Corpus Chris -18.9651 229
236   Cal St. Fullerton -19.1027 236
237   Fairfield -19.1557 226
238   Charleston Southern -19.2371 244
239   Missouri Kansas City -19.3402 268
240   Chicago St. -19.3535 247
241   Kennesaw St. -19.4363 255
242   North Dakota St. -19.4447 241
243   Southern Mississippi -19.4548 210
244   Quinnipiac -19.4726 250
245   New Hampshire -19.6232 254
246   New Orleans -19.7722 243
247   Cleveland St. -19.8522 238
248   Sacred Heart -20.0097 258
249   Texas San Antonio -20.0374 245
250   Canisius -20.0832 252
251   Rider -20.2404 233
252   Hartford -20.2458 272
253   Norfolk St. -20.2663 263
254   Jackson St. -20.3164 264
255   Weber St. -20.5352 257
256   Alabama A&M -20.6538 269
257   Long Island -20.6592 274
258 @ Hampton -20.7155 281
259   Western Carolina -20.8915 265
260   Stetson -20.9548 273
261   St. Francis NY -20.9688 260
262   Louisiana Monroe -21.0491 249
263   Cal Poly -21.1564 280
264   Southern Methodist -21.2651 251
265   Alabama St. -21.2759 277
266   Florida A&M -21.2770 267
267   South Florida -21.3095 206
268   Ball St. -21.3934 253
269   Brown -21.4008 276
270   Bethune Cookman -21.5710 285
271   NC Asheville -21.6196 256
272   Delaware -22.0191 231
273   Grambling -22.0204 292
274   Bowling Green -22.1263 259
275   Utah Valley St. -22.3949 283
276   Maine -22.4185 287
277   Lafayette -22.5613 266
278   Campbell -22.8068 294
279   NC Greensboro -23.0612 278
280   Columbia -23.1456 288
281   Cal St. Northridge -23.1830 284
282   Southern Utah -23.3940 303
283   UC Davis -23.5448 296
284   Oakland -23.5996 286
285   Florida International -23.6188 271
286   Wofford -23.6235 289
287   Arkansas Pine Bluff -23.6697 301
288   Colgate -23.7684 282
289   South Dakota St. -23.8926 275
290   Georgia St. -23.9638 242
291   MD Baltimore County -24.0926 291
292   Texas Christian -24.1236 262
293   Mississippi Valley St. -24.2105 300
294   Alcorn St. -24.5023 306
295   IUPU Fort Wayne -24.5516 299
296   St. Bonaventure -24.7490 279
297   San Jose St. -24.8198 270
298   Mercer -24.9121 307
299   William & Mary -24.9172 261
300   Nicholls St. -24.9865 297
301   East Carolina -25.1860 290
302   Youngstown St. -25.1894 304
303   UC Riverside -25.4201 313
304   Eastern Illinois -25.5263 312
305   Texas Southern -25.5447 308
306   Dartmouth -25.6417 310
307   Longwood -25.7567 314
308   Navy -25.9399 298
309   Northern Colorado -25.9848 319
310   Eastern Michigan -26.3658 305
311   Idaho -26.5299 295
312   Texas Pan American -26.5532 330
313   Stony Brook -26.5817 309
314   Liberty -26.6207 311
315   Howard -26.6304 324
316   Southeast Missouri St. -26.6908 315
317   Western Illinois -26.8660 317
318   Duquesne -26.9828 302
319   The Citadel -27.1242 320
320   Maryland Eastern Shore -27.2183 323
321   Savannah St. -27.2245 334
322   North Carolina A&T -27.2609 326
323   St. Francis PA -27.4286 321
324   Morehead St. -27.4852 325
325   Centenary -27.5407 322
326   James Madison -27.5612 293
327   North Florida -27.6120 332
328   Virginia Military Inst -27.8188 318
329   Prairie View A&M -28.0248 333
330   Texas St. -28.1537 327
331   Jacksonville -28.4404 331
332   Morgan St. -28.4971 329
333   Army -28.5767 328
334   Central Michigan -28.6192 316