Dance Card Rankings
for 2005 (FINAL)
At right are rankings of
all NCAA Division I men's
basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 13, 2005 (i.e.,
all regular season and conference tournament games),
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North
Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer
University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the
Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences).
The Dance Card correctly predicted 33 of the 34 at-large
selections (missing only on Iowa State), for a 2005
accuracy of 97%.
A full description of the Dance
Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical
accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at
DanceCard.unf.edu.
| |
Data Sources |
In order to build the Dance Card formula,
Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from
CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry
Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc. The authors are extremely
grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.
In order to use the Dance Card to
develop the rankings shown, the authors used
game scores from Ken Pomeroy
to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.
The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his
generous and invaluable service.
Special thanks also go to
Kenneth Massey for
including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking
compilation
page.
Dance Card Authors |
Jay Coleman
is
the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative
Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of
Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and
Economics at Mercer University.
Special Thanks to SAS!! |
The authors would
like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute
Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card. In
particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, Bill Rose, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an
absolute delight to work with.
Disclaimers |
This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any
capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association
(NCAA). SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are
registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other
countries. ® indicates USA registration.
|
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Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu Jay Coleman's Home
Page This page last updated on
January 11, 2006 at 11:10 p.m.
| | | |
Rank |
|
Team (@=automatic bid) |
Dance Card |
RPI Rank |
1 |
@ |
Illinois |
10.2591 |
2 |
2 |
|
North Carolina |
9.5415 |
5 |
3 |
|
Kansas |
9.3213 |
1 |
4 |
|
Wake Forest |
8.3990 |
7 |
5 |
@ |
Washington |
8.2740 |
6 |
6 |
@ |
Louisville |
7.8883 |
11 |
7 |
@ |
Duke |
7.7948 |
3 |
8 |
@ |
Oklahoma St. |
7.7249 |
4 |
9 |
|
Kentucky |
7.7111 |
10 |
10 |
|
Arizona |
7.2116 |
9 |
11 |
|
Connecticut |
6.9602 |
12 |
12 |
|
Boston College |
6.3182 |
8 |
13 |
@ |
Syracuse |
6.1193 |
18 |
14 |
@ |
Florida |
5.7427 |
15 |
15 |
|
Oklahoma |
5.6967 |
16 |
16 |
|
Alabama |
5.4951 |
19 |
17 |
|
Wisconsin |
5.3740 |
17 |
18 |
|
Villanova |
4.9841 |
14 |
19 |
|
Cincinnati |
4.6424 |
20 |
20 |
@ |
Gonzaga |
4.5648 |
13 |
21 |
|
Pacific |
4.4398 |
23 |
22 |
|
Michigan St. |
4.0294 |
22 |
23 |
|
Southern Illinois |
3.9167 |
21 |
24 |
|
Louisiana St. |
3.7922 |
24 |
25 |
|
Nevada |
3.5953 |
29 |
26 |
|
Utah |
3.5767 |
25 |
27 |
|
Charlotte |
3.3890 |
37 |
28 |
@ |
Vermont |
3.3078 |
33 |
29 |
@ |
Creighton |
3.2558 |
40 |
30 |
@ |
Old Dominion |
3.1512 |
43 |
31 |
|
Texas Tech |
3.0453 |
27 |
32 |
|
West Virginia |
2.9984 |
31 |
33 |
|
Minnesota |
2.9135 |
30 |
34 |
@ |
Texas El Paso |
2.8249 |
34 |
35 |
|
Georgia Tech |
2.0535 |
26 |
36 |
|
Mississippi St. |
2.0284 |
32 |
37 |
|
Pittsburgh |
2.0132 |
28 |
38 |
|
Iowa |
1.6235 |
36 |
39 |
|
St. Mary's |
1.4513 |
38 |
40 |
|
UCLA |
1.3842 |
35 |
41 |
|
Stanford |
1.1728 |
41 |
42 |
|
Texas |
0.7795 |
39 |
43 |
|
UAB |
0.5450 |
49 |
44 |
|
North Carolina St. |
0.2469 |
53 |
45 |
|
Wichita St. (Miss) |
-0.0585 |
44 |
46 |
@ |
Ohio |
-0.2778 |
67 |
47 |
@ |
George Washington |
-0.3573 |
60 |
48 |
@ |
Utah St. |
-0.4985 |
62 |
49 |
|
Northern Iowa |
-0.8510 |
42 |
|
|
The Bubble Bursts Here |
|
|
50 |
@ |
Wisconsin Milwaukee |
-0.9158 |
70 |
51 |
|
Southwest Missouri St. |
-0.9558 |
54 |
52 |
@ |
New Mexico |
-1.0020 |
78 |
53 |
|
Iowa St. (Miss) |
-1.1919 |
57 |
54 |
|
Miami OH |
-1.2216 |
58 |
55 |
|
Georgetown |
-1.2614 |
63 |
56 |
|
Notre Dame |
-1.3200 |
59 |
57 |
|
DePaul |
-1.3303 |
56 |
58 |
|
Miami FL |
-1.4756 |
51 |
59 |
|
Maryland |
-1.5150 |
45 |
60 |
|
Buffalo |
-1.5457 |
52 |
61 |
|
Ohio St. |
-1.5981 |
47 |
62 |
|
Davidson |
-1.5986 |
80 |
63 |
|
Vanderbilt |
-1.6544 |
55 |
64 |
|
Holy Cross |
-1.6841 |
68 |
65 |
@ |
Pennsylvania |
-1.7448 |
81 |
66 |
|
Texas A&M |
-1.7808 |
66 |
67 |
|
Northeastern |
-1.9513 |
71 |
68 |
|
Arizona St. |
-1.9891 |
50 |
69 |
|
Indiana |
-2.0972 |
48 |
70 |
@ |
Louisiana Lafayette |
-2.1301 |
72 |
71 |
|
Saint Joseph's |
-2.2578 |
73 |
72 |
|
Missouri |
-2.3284 |
46 |
73 |
@ |
Bucknell |
-2.5628 |
82 |
74 |
@ |
Winthrop |
-3.0406 |
97 |
75 |
|
Kent St. |
-3.0992 |
76 |
76 |
|
Rice |
-3.5302 |
61 |
77 |
|
Akron |
-3.6719 |
84 |
78 |
|
Virginia Commonwealth |
-3.7506 |
88 |
79 |
|
South Carolina |
-4.1108 |
74 |
80 |
|
Kansas St. |
-4.2303 |
77 |
81 |
|
Marquette |
-4.2727 |
64 |
82 |
|
Arkansas Little Rock |
-4.4008 |
94 |
83 |
|
Hofstra |
-4.5164 |
89 |
84 |
|
Boston University |
-4.6169 |
96 |
85 |
|
Texas Christian |
-4.7579 |
90 |
86 |
|
Memphis |
-4.8714 |
92 |
87 |
|
Oral Roberts |
-4.9577 |
105 |
88 |
|
Oregon St. |
-5.0047 |
102 |
89 |
|
Virginia Tech |
-5.0788 |
104 |
90 |
@ |
Central Florida |
-5.0887 |
109 |
91 |
|
Denver |
-5.1348 |
118 |
92 |
|
Clemson |
-5.1422 |
75 |
93 |
|
Western Kentucky |
-5.1999 |
87 |
94 |
|
Virginia |
-5.2095 |
65 |
95 |
|
Drexel |
-5.2728 |
98 |
96 |
|
Tennessee |
-5.5166 |
91 |
97 |
|
Western Michigan |
-5.7601 |
106 |
98 |
|
Bowling Green |
-5.7676 |
108 |
99 |
|
NC Wilmington |
-5.7781 |
114 |
100 |
|
Arkansas |
-5.8380 |
85 |
101 |
|
Houston |
-6.0263 |
86 |
102 |
|
Oregon |
-6.1440 |
69 |
103 |
|
San Francisco |
-6.1769 |
83 |
104 |
|
Temple |
-6.2735 |
100 |
105 |
|
Nevada Las Vegas |
-6.5257 |
93 |
106 |
|
Toledo |
-6.8268 |
113 |
107 |
@ |
Niagara |
-6.8967 |
121 |
108 |
|
Colorado |
-6.9881 |
95 |
109 |
|
Rider |
-7.0826 |
138 |
110 |
|
Northwestern |
-7.1442 |
101 |
111 |
@ |
Southeastern Louisiana |
-7.1476 |
142 |
112 |
|
Providence |
-7.1667 |
79 |
113 |
|
Cal St. Fullerton |
-7.3872 |
130 |
114 |
|
Northwestern St. |
-7.4102 |
140 |
115 |
|
San Diego |
-7.4353 |
123 |
116 |
|
Santa Clara |
-7.4964 |
131 |
117 |
|
Washington St. |
-7.5407 |
103 |
118 |
|
Dayton |
-7.8391 |
115 |
119 |
|
Cal St. Northridge |
-7.9243 |
134 |
120 |
|
Nebraska |
-8.0582 |
99 |
121 |
|
Wyoming |
-8.1159 |
116 |
122 |
|
Massachusetts |
-8.2663 |
111 |
123 |
|
Xavier |
-8.3286 |
125 |
124 |
|
Ball St. |
-8.4751 |
122 |
125 |
|
Pepperdine |
-8.5215 |
129 |
126 |
|
Auburn |
-8.6731 |
124 |
127 |
@ |
Eastern Kentucky |
-8.7739 |
148 |
128 |
@ |
Delaware St. |
-9.0730 |
154 |
129 |
|
California |
-9.0754 |
107 |
130 |
@ |
Chattanooga |
-9.1819 |
143 |
131 |
|
Middle Tennessee |
-9.3349 |
126 |
132 |
|
College of Charleston |
-9.3913 |
139 |
133 |
|
Air Force |
-9.4788 |
135 |
134 |
|
Hawaii |
-9.6055 |
110 |
135 |
|
Southern California |
-9.6764 |
120 |
136 |
|
Seton Hall |
-9.7183 |
112 |
137 |
|
Illinois St. |
-9.8989 |
119 |
138 |
|
Wisconsin Green Bay |
-9.9152 |
146 |
139 |
|
Mississippi |
-10.0309 |
128 |
140 |
|
Bradley |
-10.2757 |
127 |
141 |
@ |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
-10.2943 |
171 |
142 |
|
Florida St. |
-10.3638 |
117 |
143 |
|
Arkansas St. |
-10.4454 |
159 |
144 |
|
Murray St. |
-10.5811 |
147 |
145 |
|
Gardner Webb |
-10.6282 |
164 |
146 |
|
Fresno St. |
-10.6385 |
144 |
147 |
|
NC Greensboro |
-10.7617 |
153 |
148 |
|
Rutgers |
-10.8058 |
133 |
149 |
|
Sam Houston St. |
-11.0501 |
168 |
150 |
|
Princeton |
-11.0931 |
141 |
151 |
|
Detroit |
-11.5496 |
172 |
152 |
@ |
Montana |
-11.5860 |
165 |
153 |
|
St. John's |
-11.6663 |
136 |
154 |
|
Louisiana Tech |
-11.6744 |
149 |
155 |
|
Tennessee Tech |
-11.7411 |
185 |
156 |
|
American |
-11.8070 |
155 |
157 |
|
Monmouth |
-11.8559 |
194 |
158 |
|
George Mason |
-11.9091 |
156 |
159 |
|
Richmond |
-11.9263 |
151 |
160 |
|
Lamar |
-12.0679 |
169 |
161 |
|
Portland St. |
-12.2156 |
187 |
162 |
|
Drake |
-12.2198 |
137 |
163 |
|
Illinois Chicago |
-12.3215 |
157 |
164 |
|
Wright St. |
-12.5518 |
163 |
165 |
|
IUPUI |
-12.6061 |
176 |
166 |
|
Southern Methodist |
-12.6635 |
145 |
167 |
|
Coppin St. |
-12.6780 |
173 |
168 |
|
Michigan |
-12.7213 |
132 |
169 |
|
Florida International |
-12.8173 |
160 |
170 |
|
Missouri Kansas City |
-12.8787 |
183 |
171 |
|
Portland |
-12.9584 |
150 |
172 |
|
Fairfield |
-12.9911 |
184 |
173 |
|
South Florida |
-13.1822 |
158 |
174 |
|
St. Peter's |
-13.2040 |
179 |
175 |
|
Georgia St. |
-13.5885 |
174 |
176 |
|
Indiana St. |
-13.6776 |
161 |
177 |
|
Georgia Southern |
-13.8810 |
199 |
178 |
|
Yale |
-13.8824 |
188 |
179 |
|
Maine |
-13.9592 |
186 |
180 |
|
Belmont |
-14.1195 |
198 |
181 |
|
Loyola Marymount |
-14.1475 |
162 |
182 |
|
St. Louis |
-14.1596 |
167 |
183 |
|
Hampton |
-14.2638 |
207 |
184 |
|
Valparaiso |
-14.2917 |
191 |
185 |
|
Tennessee St. |
-14.2983 |
182 |
186 |
|
San Diego St. |
-14.3423 |
170 |
187 |
|
Manhattan |
-14.6107 |
197 |
188 |
|
Fordham |
-14.7358 |
181 |
189 |
|
Boise St. |
-14.7409 |
177 |
190 |
|
Texas A&M Corpus Chris |
-14.8667 |
192 |
191 |
|
Southeast Missouri St. |
-14.9000 |
210 |
192 |
|
Binghamton |
-14.9083 |
175 |
193 |
|
Northern Illinois |
-14.9347 |
190 |
194 |
|
Harvard |
-14.9506 |
196 |
195 |
|
Iona |
-14.9507 |
195 |
196 |
|
Appalachian St. |
-15.1223 |
203 |
197 |
|
Purdue |
-15.1356 |
152 |
198 |
|
Jacksonville |
-15.2077 |
218 |
199 |
|
Cal Irvine |
-15.2362 |
193 |
200 |
|
South Carolina St. |
-15.2804 |
217 |
201 |
|
Mercer |
-15.3589 |
205 |
202 |
|
Austin Peay |
-15.5423 |
208 |
203 |
|
North Texas |
-15.6422 |
180 |
204 |
|
Evansville |
-15.6525 |
189 |
205 |
|
Texas San Antonio |
-15.7373 |
213 |
206 |
|
Furman |
-15.8445 |
202 |
207 |
@ |
Oakland |
-15.9715 |
204 |
208 |
|
Cornell |
-15.9899 |
220 |
209 |
|
Loyola Chicago |
-16.0094 |
211 |
210 |
|
St. Francis PA |
-16.2998 |
212 |
211 |
|
East Carolina |
-16.3246 |
178 |
212 |
|
Birmingham Southern |
-16.7070 |
206 |
213 |
|
Albany |
-16.7497 |
209 |
214 |
|
Lipscomb |
-16.8037 |
224 |
215 |
|
New Orleans |
-16.8899 |
201 |
216 |
|
Samford |
-17.0044 |
238 |
217 |
@ |
Alabama A&M |
-17.0205 |
244 |
218 |
|
Georgia |
-17.0678 |
166 |
219 |
|
Wagner |
-17.2049 |
237 |
220 |
|
Liberty |
-17.2687 |
230 |
221 |
|
Weber St. |
-17.3297 |
232 |
222 |
|
Florida A&M |
-17.5177 |
233 |
223 |
|
Troy |
-17.6882 |
226 |
224 |
|
Brigham Young |
-17.8056 |
200 |
225 |
|
Long Island |
-17.8235 |
242 |
226 |
|
Robert Morris |
-17.8707 |
231 |
227 |
|
Cal Santa Barbara |
-17.9672 |
227 |
228 |
|
Montana St. |
-18.1514 |
255 |
229 |
|
Butler |
-18.4358 |
235 |
230 |
|
Colorado St. |
-18.4950 |
216 |
231 |
|
La Salle |
-18.5162 |
214 |
232 |
|
Florida Atlantic |
-18.6190 |
243 |
233 |
|
Alabama St. |
-18.7189 |
247 |
234 |
|
Lehigh |
-18.8249 |
249 |
235 |
|
Dartmouth |
-18.8965 |
241 |
236 |
|
Charleston Southern |
-19.3530 |
236 |
237 |
|
Tulsa |
-19.4780 |
219 |
238 |
|
Tulane |
-19.5195 |
228 |
239 |
|
Colgate |
-19.5301 |
245 |
240 |
|
Wofford |
-19.5552 |
240 |
241 |
|
McNeese St. |
-19.6310 |
251 |
242 |
|
Delaware |
-19.7808 |
221 |
243 |
|
Brown |
-20.0010 |
239 |
244 |
|
Central Connecticut |
-20.0234 |
252 |
245 |
|
Mississippi Valley St. |
-20.0506 |
269 |
246 |
|
Grambling |
-20.1480 |
259 |
247 |
|
Stony Brook |
-20.2017 |
229 |
248 |
|
Marist |
-20.3474 |
253 |
249 |
|
Long Beach St. |
-20.5437 |
246 |
250 |
|
Utah Valley St. |
-20.5438 |
260 |
251 |
|
Sacramento St. |
-20.5575 |
272 |
252 |
|
Southern Mississippi |
-20.6468 |
225 |
253 |
|
St. Francis NY |
-20.6735 |
273 |
254 |
|
Jackson St. |
-20.7208 |
262 |
255 |
|
Canisius |
-20.7333 |
270 |
256 |
|
Morgan St. |
-20.7606 |
280 |
257 |
|
Chicago St. |
-20.9324 |
261 |
258 |
|
Southern Utah |
-20.9721 |
266 |
259 |
|
South Alabama |
-21.0644 |
248 |
260 |
|
Stetson |
-21.1243 |
271 |
261 |
|
Southern |
-21.2765 |
283 |
262 |
|
Marshall |
-21.3052 |
222 |
263 |
|
Cal Davis |
-21.3411 |
256 |
264 |
|
NC Asheville |
-21.3435 |
257 |
265 |
|
Eastern Illinois |
-21.4004 |
264 |
266 |
|
Baylor |
-21.5271 |
223 |
267 |
|
Central Michigan |
-21.7098 |
234 |
268 |
|
Norfolk St. |
-21.7455 |
290 |
269 |
|
Eastern Michigan |
-21.8437 |
250 |
270 |
|
Coastal Carolina |
-21.9061 |
281 |
271 |
|
Penn St. |
-21.9575 |
215 |
272 |
|
High Point |
-22.0664 |
276 |
273 |
|
Western Illinois |
-22.2038 |
268 |
274 |
|
Eastern Washington |
-22.3001 |
277 |
275 |
|
Texas St. |
-22.3670 |
286 |
276 |
|
Cleveland St. |
-22.3974 |
274 |
277 |
|
Idaho |
-22.4132 |
287 |
278 |
|
Lafayette |
-22.5050 |
258 |
279 |
|
Duquesne |
-22.6602 |
254 |
280 |
|
Texas Pan American |
-22.8014 |
282 |
281 |
|
Elon |
-22.9744 |
278 |
282 |
|
Bethune Cookman |
-23.0070 |
296 |
283 |
|
Texas Arlington |
-23.0519 |
284 |
284 |
|
Stephen F. Austin |
-23.1707 |
294 |
285 |
|
Columbia |
-23.3075 |
275 |
286 |
|
Texas Southern |
-23.4391 |
305 |
287 |
|
San Jose St. |
-23.6581 |
263 |
288 |
|
Morehead St. |
-23.8490 |
295 |
289 |
|
Radford |
-23.9042 |
289 |
290 |
|
Northern Arizona |
-23.9511 |
292 |
291 |
|
East Tennessee St. |
-24.0596 |
288 |
292 |
|
Cal Riverside |
-24.0754 |
285 |
293 |
|
New Hampshire |
-24.0864 |
265 |
294 |
|
MD Baltimore County |
-24.3094 |
279 |
295 |
|
Northern Colorado |
-24.3685 |
298 |
296 |
|
Quinnipiac |
-24.4054 |
301 |
297 |
|
Navy |
-24.5426 |
304 |
298 |
|
IUPU Fort Wayne |
-24.6762 |
306 |
299 |
|
William & Mary |
-24.8257 |
267 |
300 |
|
Idaho St. |
-25.2091 |
309 |
301 |
|
Rhode Island |
-25.2491 |
297 |
302 |
|
The Citadel |
-25.3452 |
302 |
303 |
|
Loyola MD |
-25.3527 |
310 |
304 |
|
Tennessee Martin |
-25.4078 |
312 |
305 |
|
Siena |
-25.4355 |
299 |
306 |
|
Cal Poly |
-25.6944 |
307 |
307 |
|
Savannah St. |
-25.7554 |
329 |
308 |
|
Hartford |
-25.8841 |
291 |
309 |
|
North Carolina A&T |
-25.9594 |
311 |
310 |
|
Mount St. Mary's |
-26.0189 |
316 |
311 |
|
Alcorn St. |
-26.0489 |
323 |
312 |
|
Western Carolina |
-26.4089 |
308 |
313 |
|
Jacksonville St. |
-26.6053 |
314 |
314 |
|
Virginia Military Inst |
-26.6320 |
315 |
315 |
|
Sacred Heart |
-26.7141 |
324 |
316 |
|
Longwood |
-26.7400 |
328 |
317 |
|
Prairie View A&M |
-26.8279 |
321 |
318 |
|
Louisiana Monroe |
-26.8586 |
319 |
319 |
|
New Mexico St. |
-26.9386 |
293 |
320 |
|
Arkansas Pine Bluff |
-27.2539 |
318 |
321 |
|
Youngstown St. |
-27.2860 |
317 |
322 |
|
Nicholls St. |
-27.2870 |
322 |
323 |
|
James Madison |
-27.7196 |
303 |
324 |
|
Campbell |
-28.1362 |
320 |
325 |
|
Maryland Eastern Shore |
-28.2093 |
330 |
326 |
|
Towson |
-28.2187 |
300 |
327 |
|
St. Bonaventure |
-28.2396 |
313 |
328 |
|
Howard |
-28.2843 |
326 |
329 |
|
Army |
-28.5746 |
327 |
330 |
|
Centenary |
-28.5825 |
325 |
|