DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2005 (FINAL)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 13, 2005 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences).

The Dance Card correctly predicted 33 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Iowa State), for a 2005 accuracy of 97%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, Bill Rose, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on January 11, 2006 at 11:10 p.m.

 

Rank   Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 @ Illinois 10.2591 2
2   North Carolina 9.5415 5
3   Kansas 9.3213 1
4   Wake Forest 8.3990 7
5 @ Washington 8.2740 6
6 @ Louisville 7.8883 11
7 @ Duke 7.7948 3
8 @ Oklahoma St. 7.7249 4
9   Kentucky 7.7111 10
10   Arizona 7.2116 9
11   Connecticut 6.9602 12
12   Boston College 6.3182 8
13 @ Syracuse 6.1193 18
14 @ Florida 5.7427 15
15   Oklahoma 5.6967 16
16   Alabama 5.4951 19
17   Wisconsin 5.3740 17
18   Villanova 4.9841 14
19   Cincinnati 4.6424 20
20 @ Gonzaga 4.5648 13
21   Pacific 4.4398 23
22   Michigan St. 4.0294 22
23   Southern Illinois 3.9167 21
24   Louisiana St. 3.7922 24
25   Nevada 3.5953 29
26   Utah 3.5767 25
27   Charlotte 3.3890 37
28 @ Vermont 3.3078 33
29 @ Creighton 3.2558 40
30 @ Old Dominion 3.1512 43
31   Texas Tech 3.0453 27
32   West Virginia 2.9984 31
33   Minnesota 2.9135 30
34 @ Texas El Paso 2.8249 34
35   Georgia Tech 2.0535 26
36   Mississippi St. 2.0284 32
37   Pittsburgh 2.0132 28
38   Iowa 1.6235 36
39   St. Mary's 1.4513 38
40   UCLA 1.3842 35
41   Stanford 1.1728 41
42   Texas 0.7795 39
43   UAB 0.5450 49
44   North Carolina St. 0.2469 53
45   Wichita St. (Miss) -0.0585 44
46 @ Ohio -0.2778 67
47 @ George Washington -0.3573 60
48 @ Utah St. -0.4985 62
49   Northern Iowa -0.8510 42
    The Bubble Bursts Here    
50 @ Wisconsin Milwaukee -0.9158 70
51   Southwest Missouri St. -0.9558 54
52 @ New Mexico -1.0020 78
53   Iowa St. (Miss) -1.1919 57
54   Miami OH -1.2216 58
55   Georgetown -1.2614 63
56   Notre Dame -1.3200 59
57   DePaul -1.3303 56
58   Miami FL -1.4756 51
59   Maryland -1.5150 45
60   Buffalo -1.5457 52
61   Ohio St. -1.5981 47
62   Davidson -1.5986 80
63   Vanderbilt -1.6544 55
64   Holy Cross -1.6841 68
65 @ Pennsylvania -1.7448 81
66   Texas A&M -1.7808 66
67   Northeastern -1.9513 71
68   Arizona St. -1.9891 50
69   Indiana -2.0972 48
70 @ Louisiana Lafayette -2.1301 72
71   Saint Joseph's -2.2578 73
72   Missouri -2.3284 46
73 @ Bucknell -2.5628 82
74 @ Winthrop -3.0406 97
75   Kent St. -3.0992 76
76   Rice -3.5302 61
77   Akron -3.6719 84
78   Virginia Commonwealth -3.7506 88
79   South Carolina -4.1108 74
80   Kansas St. -4.2303 77
81   Marquette -4.2727 64
82   Arkansas Little Rock -4.4008 94
83   Hofstra -4.5164 89
84   Boston University -4.6169 96
85   Texas Christian -4.7579 90
86   Memphis -4.8714 92
87   Oral Roberts -4.9577 105
88   Oregon St. -5.0047 102
89   Virginia Tech -5.0788 104
90 @ Central Florida -5.0887 109
91   Denver -5.1348 118
92   Clemson -5.1422 75
93   Western Kentucky -5.1999 87
94   Virginia -5.2095 65
95   Drexel -5.2728 98
96   Tennessee -5.5166 91
97   Western Michigan -5.7601 106
98   Bowling Green -5.7676 108
99   NC Wilmington -5.7781 114
100   Arkansas -5.8380 85
101   Houston -6.0263 86
102   Oregon -6.1440 69
103   San Francisco -6.1769 83
104   Temple -6.2735 100
105   Nevada Las Vegas -6.5257 93
106   Toledo -6.8268 113
107 @ Niagara -6.8967 121
108   Colorado -6.9881 95
109   Rider -7.0826 138
110   Northwestern -7.1442 101
111 @ Southeastern Louisiana -7.1476 142
112   Providence -7.1667 79
113   Cal St. Fullerton -7.3872 130
114   Northwestern St. -7.4102 140
115   San Diego -7.4353 123
116   Santa Clara -7.4964 131
117   Washington St. -7.5407 103
118   Dayton -7.8391 115
119   Cal St. Northridge -7.9243 134
120   Nebraska -8.0582 99
121   Wyoming -8.1159 116
122   Massachusetts -8.2663 111
123   Xavier -8.3286 125
124   Ball St. -8.4751 122
125   Pepperdine -8.5215 129
126   Auburn -8.6731 124
127 @ Eastern Kentucky -8.7739 148
128 @ Delaware St. -9.0730 154
129   California -9.0754 107
130 @ Chattanooga -9.1819 143
131   Middle Tennessee -9.3349 126
132   College of Charleston -9.3913 139
133   Air Force -9.4788 135
134   Hawaii -9.6055 110
135   Southern California -9.6764 120
136   Seton Hall -9.7183 112
137   Illinois St. -9.8989 119
138   Wisconsin Green Bay -9.9152 146
139   Mississippi -10.0309 128
140   Bradley -10.2757 127
141 @ Fairleigh Dickinson -10.2943 171
142   Florida St. -10.3638 117
143   Arkansas St. -10.4454 159
144   Murray St. -10.5811 147
145   Gardner Webb -10.6282 164
146   Fresno St. -10.6385 144
147   NC Greensboro -10.7617 153
148   Rutgers -10.8058 133
149   Sam Houston St. -11.0501 168
150   Princeton -11.0931 141
151   Detroit -11.5496 172
152 @ Montana -11.5860 165
153   St. John's -11.6663 136
154   Louisiana Tech -11.6744 149
155   Tennessee Tech -11.7411 185
156   American -11.8070 155
157   Monmouth -11.8559 194
158   George Mason -11.9091 156
159   Richmond -11.9263 151
160   Lamar -12.0679 169
161   Portland St. -12.2156 187
162   Drake -12.2198 137
163   Illinois Chicago -12.3215 157
164   Wright St. -12.5518 163
165   IUPUI -12.6061 176
166   Southern Methodist -12.6635 145
167   Coppin St. -12.6780 173
168   Michigan -12.7213 132
169   Florida International -12.8173 160
170   Missouri Kansas City -12.8787 183
171   Portland -12.9584 150
172   Fairfield -12.9911 184
173   South Florida -13.1822 158
174   St. Peter's -13.2040 179
175   Georgia St. -13.5885 174
176   Indiana St. -13.6776 161
177   Georgia Southern -13.8810 199
178   Yale -13.8824 188
179   Maine -13.9592 186
180   Belmont -14.1195 198
181   Loyola Marymount -14.1475 162
182   St. Louis -14.1596 167
183   Hampton -14.2638 207
184   Valparaiso -14.2917 191
185   Tennessee St. -14.2983 182
186   San Diego St. -14.3423 170
187   Manhattan -14.6107 197
188   Fordham -14.7358 181
189   Boise St. -14.7409 177
190   Texas A&M Corpus Chris -14.8667 192
191   Southeast Missouri St. -14.9000 210
192   Binghamton -14.9083 175
193   Northern Illinois -14.9347 190
194   Harvard -14.9506 196
195   Iona -14.9507 195
196   Appalachian St. -15.1223 203
197   Purdue -15.1356 152
198   Jacksonville -15.2077 218
199   Cal Irvine -15.2362 193
200   South Carolina St. -15.2804 217
201   Mercer -15.3589 205
202   Austin Peay -15.5423 208
203   North Texas -15.6422 180
204   Evansville -15.6525 189
205   Texas San Antonio -15.7373 213
206   Furman -15.8445 202
207 @ Oakland -15.9715 204
208   Cornell -15.9899 220
209   Loyola Chicago -16.0094 211
210   St. Francis PA -16.2998 212
211   East Carolina -16.3246 178
212   Birmingham Southern -16.7070 206
213   Albany -16.7497 209
214   Lipscomb -16.8037 224
215   New Orleans -16.8899 201
216   Samford -17.0044 238
217 @ Alabama A&M -17.0205 244
218   Georgia -17.0678 166
219   Wagner -17.2049 237
220   Liberty -17.2687 230
221   Weber St. -17.3297 232
222   Florida A&M -17.5177 233
223   Troy -17.6882 226
224   Brigham Young -17.8056 200
225   Long Island -17.8235 242
226   Robert Morris -17.8707 231
227   Cal Santa Barbara -17.9672 227
228   Montana St. -18.1514 255
229   Butler -18.4358 235
230   Colorado St. -18.4950 216
231   La Salle -18.5162 214
232   Florida Atlantic -18.6190 243
233   Alabama St. -18.7189 247
234   Lehigh -18.8249 249
235   Dartmouth -18.8965 241
236   Charleston Southern -19.3530 236
237   Tulsa -19.4780 219
238   Tulane -19.5195 228
239   Colgate -19.5301 245
240   Wofford -19.5552 240
241   McNeese St. -19.6310 251
242   Delaware -19.7808 221
243   Brown -20.0010 239
244   Central Connecticut -20.0234 252
245   Mississippi Valley St. -20.0506 269
246   Grambling -20.1480 259
247   Stony Brook -20.2017 229
248   Marist -20.3474 253
249   Long Beach St. -20.5437 246
250   Utah Valley St. -20.5438 260
251   Sacramento St. -20.5575 272
252   Southern Mississippi -20.6468 225
253   St. Francis NY -20.6735 273
254   Jackson St. -20.7208 262
255   Canisius -20.7333 270
256   Morgan St. -20.7606 280
257   Chicago St. -20.9324 261
258   Southern Utah -20.9721 266
259   South Alabama -21.0644 248
260   Stetson -21.1243 271
261   Southern -21.2765 283
262   Marshall -21.3052 222
263   Cal Davis -21.3411 256
264   NC Asheville -21.3435 257
265   Eastern Illinois -21.4004 264
266   Baylor -21.5271 223
267   Central Michigan -21.7098 234
268   Norfolk St. -21.7455 290
269   Eastern Michigan -21.8437 250
270   Coastal Carolina -21.9061 281
271   Penn St. -21.9575 215
272   High Point -22.0664 276
273   Western Illinois -22.2038 268
274   Eastern Washington -22.3001 277
275   Texas St. -22.3670 286
276   Cleveland St. -22.3974 274
277   Idaho -22.4132 287
278   Lafayette -22.5050 258
279   Duquesne -22.6602 254
280   Texas Pan American -22.8014 282
281   Elon -22.9744 278
282   Bethune Cookman -23.0070 296
283   Texas Arlington -23.0519 284
284   Stephen F. Austin -23.1707 294
285   Columbia -23.3075 275
286   Texas Southern -23.4391 305
287   San Jose St. -23.6581 263
288   Morehead St. -23.8490 295
289   Radford -23.9042 289
290   Northern Arizona -23.9511 292
291   East Tennessee St. -24.0596 288
292   Cal Riverside -24.0754 285
293   New Hampshire -24.0864 265
294   MD Baltimore County -24.3094 279
295   Northern Colorado -24.3685 298
296   Quinnipiac -24.4054 301
297   Navy -24.5426 304
298   IUPU Fort Wayne -24.6762 306
299   William & Mary -24.8257 267
300   Idaho St. -25.2091 309
301   Rhode Island -25.2491 297
302   The Citadel -25.3452 302
303   Loyola MD -25.3527 310
304   Tennessee Martin -25.4078 312
305   Siena -25.4355 299
306   Cal Poly -25.6944 307
307   Savannah St. -25.7554 329
308   Hartford -25.8841 291
309   North Carolina A&T -25.9594 311
310   Mount St. Mary's -26.0189 316
311   Alcorn St. -26.0489 323
312   Western Carolina -26.4089 308
313   Jacksonville St. -26.6053 314
314   Virginia Military Inst -26.6320 315
315   Sacred Heart -26.7141 324
316   Longwood -26.7400 328
317   Prairie View A&M -26.8279 321
318   Louisiana Monroe -26.8586 319
319   New Mexico St. -26.9386 293
320   Arkansas Pine Bluff -27.2539 318
321   Youngstown St. -27.2860 317
322   Nicholls St. -27.2870 322
323   James Madison -27.7196 303
324   Campbell -28.1362 320
325   Maryland Eastern Shore -28.2093 330
326   Towson -28.2187 300
327   St. Bonaventure -28.2396 313
328   Howard -28.2843 326
329   Army -28.5746 327
330   Centenary -28.5825 325