DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2004 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 14, 2004 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 31 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on UTEP, Air Force, and Richmond), for a 2004 accuracy of 91%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Kentucky @ 10.0066 2
2 Duke 9.2046 1
3 Connecticut @ 8.5480 5
4 St. Joseph's 8.4651 3
5 Mississippi St. 8.3020 4
6 Stanford @ 8.0706 7
7 Pittsburgh 7.7284 8
8 Oklahoma St. @ 7.3046 6
9 Texas 6.8737 10
10 Wisconsin @ 6.5067 12
11 Illinois 6.1722 23
12 Gonzaga @ 5.9514 9
13 Cincinnati @ 5.9314 11
14 Florida 5.7584 13
15 North Carolina St. 5.5830 17
16 Kansas 5.2108 15
17 Georgia Tech 5.1694 16
18 Syracuse 4.6067 14
19 Wake Forest 4.4296 20
20 Southern Illinois 4.4250 25
21 Providence 4.3654 21
22 Maryland @ 4.3336 18
23 Boston College 4.0434 22
24 Memphis 3.4627 32
25 Xavier @ 3.2692 35
26 South Carolina 3.2648 45
27 Nevada @ 3.2281 29
28 North Carolina 3.2086 19
29 Vanderbilt 3.1656 27
30 Manhattan @ 2.9234 42
31 Texas Tech 2.3464 30
32 Dayton 2.3292 40
33 Western Michigan @ 2.3283 44
34 Seton Hall 2.1975 28
35 Louisville 2.1078 24
36 Michigan St. 2.0197 39
37 Utah @ 1.5328 36
38 Alabama Birmingham 1.4727 33
39 Alabama 1.3643 26
40 Brigham Young 1.3457 31
41 Utah St. (Miss) 1.3415 43
42 DePaul 1.2202 37
43 Charlotte 1.0579 34
44 Central Florida @ 1.0434 62
45 Pacific @ 0.8465 65
46 Notre Dame (Miss) 0.7100 49
47 Virginia Commonwealth @ 0.5220 54
48 Washington 0.5159 60
49 Louisiana St. (Miss) 0.4360 38
50 Arizona 0.3640 41
  Bubble Point    
51 Murray St. @ 0.1764 58
52 Northern Iowa @ 0.0590 59
53 East Tennessee St. @ -0.1194 61
54 Troy St. -0.2800 66
55 Virginia -0.3911 52
56 Texas El Paso (Miss) -0.4934 46
57 Air Force (Miss) -0.5587 70
58 Missouri -0.8484 51
59 Oklahoma -0.8536 50
60 Wichita St. -1.1155 68
61 Colorado -1.1676 57
62 Florida St. -1.2553 53
63 Rice -1.4389 63
64 Richmond (Miss) -1.4542 47
65 Georgia -1.4799 48
66 Boston University -1.5882 84
67 Kent St. -1.9664 76
68 George Washington -2.1969 74
69 Boise St. -2.2680 72
70 Rutgers -2.5388 56
71 Illinois Chicago @ -2.5944 87
72 Louisiana Lafayette @ -2.7110 71
73 Wisconsin Milwaukee -2.7688 75
74 St. Louis -2.7867 64
75 Iowa St. -2.9820 69
76 Creighton -3.2213 77
77 George Mason -3.2436 81
78 Michigan -3.3597 55
79 Villanova -3.6147 67
80 Austin Peay -3.6232 94
81 Hawaii -3.6938 73
82 Belmont -3.8705 85
83 Miami OH -4.5493 93
84 Tennessee -4.5712 78
85 Drexel -4.7731 101
86 Vermont @ -4.8293 115
87 Toledo -4.9206 91
88 Marquette -5.1495 83
89 Indiana -5.2841 88
90 Rhode Island -5.4417 82
91 Niagara -5.5375 98
92 Iowa -5.5593 86
93 College of Charleston -5.8045 106
94 Oregon -5.9601 89
95 Southwest Missouri St. -5.9818 96
96 Old Dominion -5.9872 99
97 Detroit -6.0685 110
98 Princeton @ -6.0883 121
99 West Virginia -6.1368 97
100 Nevada Las Vegas -6.1646 80
101 St. Mary's -6.2241 104
102 Auburn -6.2377 79
103 Georgia St. -6.3244 113
104 Monmouth @ -6.5261 116
105 Purdue -6.5647 107
106 Nebraska -6.6499 92
107 Temple -6.7223 100
108 Virginia Tech -6.7539 108
109 St. Peter's -7.1765 103
110 California -7.2273 109
111 Eastern Washington @ -7.3059 127
112 Clemson -7.3662 90
113 Mississippi Valley St. -7.6079 134
114 Pepperdine -7.6213 129
115 Fairfield -7.6910 125
116 Chattanooga -7.8614 122
117 Mississippi -7.9844 95
118 Davidson -7.9845 118
119 Fresno St. -8.0027 102
120 Valparaiso @ -8.0830 139
121 Pennsylvania -8.1317 124
122 Northwestern -8.1411 105
123 Middle Tennessee -8.5925 128
124 New Orleans -8.7507 131
125 Delaware -8.9070 130
126 Kansas St. -8.9176 114
127 Buffalo -8.9566 136
128 Georgia Southern -9.0720 143
129 Wisconsin Green Bay -9.1628 137
130 San Francisco -9.1756 119
131 Southern California -9.2952 112
132 Hofstra -9.5206 140
133 Northeastern -9.6865 154
134 Maine -9.7489 155
135 Arkansas -9.8678 111
136 IUPUI -9.9400 141
137 Santa Clara -9.9527 138
138 American -10.0035 159
139 Ball St. -10.0526 146
140 Birmingham Southern -10.1428 161
141 UCLA -10.2154 133
142 Lafayette -10.2619 148
143 NC Wilmington -10.3890 135
144 Western Kentucky -10.4401 144
145 Texas Christian -10.5084 120
146 Oral Roberts -10.6056 157
147 Liberty @ -10.7980 165
148 Southern Mississippi -11.0948 123
149 San Diego St. -11.2216 117
150 Wyoming -11.2244 126
151 Fairleigh Dickinson -11.2963 164
152 Stephen F. Austin -11.3534 172
153 Cal Santa Barbara -11.4738 153
154 Wright St. -11.4810 163
155 Rider -11.9247 175
156 Arkansas Little Rock -11.9687 182
157 New Mexico -11.9902 145
158 Marshall -12.0147 150
159 Colorado St. -12.0417 132
160 Lehigh @ -12.0591 194
161 SE Louisiana -12.3328 179
162 Georgetown -12.3726 142
163 Butler -12.3805 166
164 Ohio St. -12.4892 147
165 Texas San Antonio @ -12.5457 200
166 Washington St. -12.5517 149
167 Arkansas St. -13.0403 177
168 Bradley -13.0619 152
169 Centenary -13.1252 183
170 Denver -13.1797 169
171 Siena -13.4446 167
172 Idaho -13.5001 160
173 Duquesne -13.5344 162
174 Morehead St. -13.6680 176
175 Oregon St. -13.7471 168
176 Louisiana Tech -13.8507 158
177 Texas Arlington -13.9009 205
178 Brown -13.9920 209
179 Furman -14.0078 195
180 Loyola Marymount -14.0718 180
181 Miami FL -14.1124 171
182 Missouri Kansas City -14.1930 202
183 Portland -14.4755 193
184 Binghamton -14.6905 204
185 East Carolina -14.6914 151
186 Cal St. Northridge -14.8145 186
187 Central Connecticut -14.8447 207
188 St. Francis NY -14.9328 226
189 Minnesota -14.9506 156
190 Winthrop -14.9544 210
191 Bucknell -15.0415 216
192 South Alabama -15.0596 191
193 South Carolina St. -15.0906 218
194 Weber St. -15.1293 178
195 Robert Morris -15.2063 217
196 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -15.2347 185
197 Chicago St. -15.2600 206
198 Southern Methodist -15.3208 170
199 New Mexico St. -15.8410 190
200 High Point -15.9755 220
201 Akron -16.0866 201
202 Drake -16.1130 196
203 Massachusetts -16.1779 174
204 Alabama St. @ -16.1907 230
205 Bowling Green -16.2051 199
206 Coppin St. -16.3181 234
207 Iona -16.3405 203
208 Tulane -16.4054 181
209 St. John's -16.4504 173
210 Arizona St. -16.5128 184
211 Wagner -16.5368 219
212 North Texas -16.8988 237
213 Yale -16.9790 214
214 Eastern Kentucky -16.9843 215
215 Texas Pan American -17.1417 212
216 Holy Cross -17.1766 227
217 Illinois St. -17.2903 192
218 Penn St. -17.7298 189
219 Northern Arizona -17.8378 238
220 Houston -17.9323 187
221 Colgate -17.9869 239
222 Stetson -18.0898 224
223 St. Francis PA -18.1507 249
224 La Salle -18.1649 188
225 Mercer -18.1979 208
226 Baylor -18.3669 213
227 Tulsa -18.3860 197
228 Montana St. -18.6164 244
229 Idaho St. -18.6583 228
230 Ohio -18.8173 231
231 Tennessee Tech -18.9211 221
232 Delaware St. -18.9425 240
233 Elon -18.9563 243
234 Florida A&M @ -18.9656 262
235 Cal Irvine -19.0199 223
236 Hartford -19.0481 235
237 Sacramento St. -19.0506 256
238 Western Carolina -19.1839 236
239 Sacred Heart -19.2209 251
240 Oakland -19.3972 233
241 St. Bonaventure -19.5951 198
242 Cal St. Fullerton -19.8078 241
243 Coastal Carolina -19.8159 263
244 Loyola Chicago -19.8325 225
245 Indiana St. -20.0421 229
246 Mount St. Mary's -20.1426 261
247 Cal Riverside -20.1783 245
248 Montana -20.2899 254
249 Evansville -20.3698 232
250 Jacksonville St. -20.4910 252
251 NC Greensboro -20.5773 255
252 Samford -20.6537 260
253 Alcorn St. -20.6569 277
254 Cal Poly -20.7289 242
255 Cornell -20.8120 269
256 Eastern Michigan -20.8343 253
257 Hampton -20.8865 271
258 Southern Utah -20.8899 259
259 Louisiana Monroe -20.9101 268
260 Jacksonville -21.0469 250
261 McNeese St. -21.1707 264
262 Alabama A&M -21.1948 280
263 Texas St. -21.2098 275
264 Jackson St. -21.3493 274
265 Stony Brook -21.4956 266
266 Canisius -21.5039 247
267 Fordham -21.5651 211
268 Texas Southern -21.5974 287
269 Northwestern St. -21.6239 283
270 Sam Houston St. -21.6556 281
271 Appalachian St. -21.9757 248
272 Youngstown St. -22.1168 257
273 Southern -22.1250 285
274 NC Asheville -22.3092 272
275 Portland St. -22.3307 270
276 Morgan St. -22.3785 284
277 South Florida -22.4999 222
278 Tennessee Martin -22.5443 258
279 Columbia -22.9471 286
280 New Hampshire -22.9975 273
281 Radford -23.1011 295
282 Southeast Missouri St. -23.2173 267
283 Grambling -23.2463 296
284 William & Mary -23.2797 265
285 Norfolk St. -23.2833 310
286 Wofford -23.5331 276
287 Northern Illinois -23.8316 279
288 Long Island -23.8827 289
289 Texas A&M -23.9251 246
290 Lamar -24.4982 294
291 Quinnipiac -24.5122 301
292 Towson -24.6913 278
293 Marist -24.9017 288
294 Tennessee St. -24.9258 293
295 MD Baltimore County -24.9896 299
296 Harvard -25.1833 308
297 Prairie View A&M -25.2965 306
298 Savannah St. -25.3097 304
299 San Diego -25.3112 298
300 IUPU Fort Wayne -25.4879 303
301 Gardner Webb -25.5001 292
302 Long Beach St. -25.5312 300
303 James Madison -25.5687 290
304 Maryland Eastern Shore -25.5802 318
305 Army -25.7250 319
306 Virginia Military Inst -25.8179 312
307 Bethune Cookman -25.8624 320
308 Florida Atlantic -25.9078 297
309 Albany -26.1100 309
310 Florida International -26.1638 311
311 The Citadel -26.5223 305
312 Howard -26.6231 321
313 Western Illinois -26.7115 313
314 Lipscomb -26.7194 302
315 Dartmouth -26.7385 324
316 Eastern Illinois -26.7609 314
317 Central Michigan -26.8603 291
318 Charleston Southern -27.0441 316
319 Navy -27.3185 315
320 San Jose St. -27.4875 282
321 Nicholls St. -27.6560 325
322 Cleveland St. -27.7198 307
323 North Carolina A&T -27.7596 323
324 Campbell -28.3329 317
325 Loyola MD -28.5737 322
326 Arkansas Pine Bluff -28.5851 326