Dance Card Rankings
for 2004 (Final)
At right are rankings of
all NCAA Division I men's
basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 14, 2004 (i.e., all
regular season and conference tournament games),
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North
Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer
University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the
Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences).
The Dance Card
correctly predicted 31 of the 34 at-large selections
(missing on UTEP, Air Force, and Richmond), for a
2004 accuracy of 91%.
A full description of the Dance
Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical
accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at
DanceCard.unf.edu.
| |
Data Sources |
In order to build the Dance Card formula,
Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from
CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry
Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc. The authors are extremely
grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.
In order to use the Dance Card to
develop the rankings shown, the authors used
game scores from Ken Pomeroy
to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.
The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his
generous and invaluable service.
Special thanks also go to
Kenneth Massey for
including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking
compilation
page.
Dance Card Authors |
Jay Coleman
is
the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative
Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of
Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and
Economics at Mercer University.
Special Thanks to SAS!! |
The authors would
like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute
Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card. In
particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an
absolute delight to work with.
Disclaimers |
This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any
capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association
(NCAA). SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are
registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other
countries. ® indicates USA registration.
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Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu Jay Coleman's Home
Page This page last updated on
February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.
| | | |
Rank |
Team (@=automatic bid) |
Dance Card |
RPI Rank |
1 |
Kentucky @ |
10.0066 |
2 |
2 |
Duke |
9.2046 |
1 |
3 |
Connecticut @ |
8.5480 |
5 |
4 |
St. Joseph's |
8.4651 |
3 |
5 |
Mississippi St. |
8.3020 |
4 |
6 |
Stanford @ |
8.0706 |
7 |
7 |
Pittsburgh |
7.7284 |
8 |
8 |
Oklahoma St. @ |
7.3046 |
6 |
9 |
Texas |
6.8737 |
10 |
10 |
Wisconsin @ |
6.5067 |
12 |
11 |
Illinois |
6.1722 |
23 |
12 |
Gonzaga @ |
5.9514 |
9 |
13 |
Cincinnati @ |
5.9314 |
11 |
14 |
Florida |
5.7584 |
13 |
15 |
North Carolina St. |
5.5830 |
17 |
16 |
Kansas |
5.2108 |
15 |
17 |
Georgia Tech |
5.1694 |
16 |
18 |
Syracuse |
4.6067 |
14 |
19 |
Wake Forest |
4.4296 |
20 |
20 |
Southern Illinois |
4.4250 |
25 |
21 |
Providence |
4.3654 |
21 |
22 |
Maryland @ |
4.3336 |
18 |
23 |
Boston College |
4.0434 |
22 |
24 |
Memphis |
3.4627 |
32 |
25 |
Xavier @ |
3.2692 |
35 |
26 |
South Carolina |
3.2648 |
45 |
27 |
Nevada @ |
3.2281 |
29 |
28 |
North Carolina |
3.2086 |
19 |
29 |
Vanderbilt |
3.1656 |
27 |
30 |
Manhattan @ |
2.9234 |
42 |
31 |
Texas Tech |
2.3464 |
30 |
32 |
Dayton |
2.3292 |
40 |
33 |
Western Michigan @ |
2.3283 |
44 |
34 |
Seton Hall |
2.1975 |
28 |
35 |
Louisville |
2.1078 |
24 |
36 |
Michigan St. |
2.0197 |
39 |
37 |
Utah @ |
1.5328 |
36 |
38 |
Alabama Birmingham |
1.4727 |
33 |
39 |
Alabama |
1.3643 |
26 |
40 |
Brigham Young |
1.3457 |
31 |
41 |
Utah St. (Miss) |
1.3415 |
43 |
42 |
DePaul |
1.2202 |
37 |
43 |
Charlotte |
1.0579 |
34 |
44 |
Central Florida @ |
1.0434 |
62 |
45 |
Pacific @ |
0.8465 |
65 |
46 |
Notre Dame (Miss) |
0.7100 |
49 |
47 |
Virginia Commonwealth @ |
0.5220 |
54 |
48 |
Washington |
0.5159 |
60 |
49 |
Louisiana St. (Miss) |
0.4360 |
38 |
50 |
Arizona |
0.3640 |
41 |
|
Bubble Point |
|
|
51 |
Murray St. @ |
0.1764 |
58 |
52 |
Northern Iowa @ |
0.0590 |
59 |
53 |
East Tennessee St. @ |
-0.1194 |
61 |
54 |
Troy St. |
-0.2800 |
66 |
55 |
Virginia |
-0.3911 |
52 |
56 |
Texas El Paso (Miss) |
-0.4934 |
46 |
57 |
Air Force (Miss) |
-0.5587 |
70 |
58 |
Missouri |
-0.8484 |
51 |
59 |
Oklahoma |
-0.8536 |
50 |
60 |
Wichita St. |
-1.1155 |
68 |
61 |
Colorado |
-1.1676 |
57 |
62 |
Florida St. |
-1.2553 |
53 |
63 |
Rice |
-1.4389 |
63 |
64 |
Richmond (Miss) |
-1.4542 |
47 |
65 |
Georgia |
-1.4799 |
48 |
66 |
Boston University |
-1.5882 |
84 |
67 |
Kent St. |
-1.9664 |
76 |
68 |
George Washington |
-2.1969 |
74 |
69 |
Boise St. |
-2.2680 |
72 |
70 |
Rutgers |
-2.5388 |
56 |
71 |
Illinois Chicago @ |
-2.5944 |
87 |
72 |
Louisiana Lafayette @ |
-2.7110 |
71 |
73 |
Wisconsin Milwaukee |
-2.7688 |
75 |
74 |
St. Louis |
-2.7867 |
64 |
75 |
Iowa St. |
-2.9820 |
69 |
76 |
Creighton |
-3.2213 |
77 |
77 |
George Mason |
-3.2436 |
81 |
78 |
Michigan |
-3.3597 |
55 |
79 |
Villanova |
-3.6147 |
67 |
80 |
Austin Peay |
-3.6232 |
94 |
81 |
Hawaii |
-3.6938 |
73 |
82 |
Belmont |
-3.8705 |
85 |
83 |
Miami OH |
-4.5493 |
93 |
84 |
Tennessee |
-4.5712 |
78 |
85 |
Drexel |
-4.7731 |
101 |
86 |
Vermont @ |
-4.8293 |
115 |
87 |
Toledo |
-4.9206 |
91 |
88 |
Marquette |
-5.1495 |
83 |
89 |
Indiana |
-5.2841 |
88 |
90 |
Rhode Island |
-5.4417 |
82 |
91 |
Niagara |
-5.5375 |
98 |
92 |
Iowa |
-5.5593 |
86 |
93 |
College of Charleston |
-5.8045 |
106 |
94 |
Oregon |
-5.9601 |
89 |
95 |
Southwest Missouri St. |
-5.9818 |
96 |
96 |
Old Dominion |
-5.9872 |
99 |
97 |
Detroit |
-6.0685 |
110 |
98 |
Princeton @ |
-6.0883 |
121 |
99 |
West Virginia |
-6.1368 |
97 |
100 |
Nevada Las Vegas |
-6.1646 |
80 |
101 |
St. Mary's |
-6.2241 |
104 |
102 |
Auburn |
-6.2377 |
79 |
103 |
Georgia St. |
-6.3244 |
113 |
104 |
Monmouth @ |
-6.5261 |
116 |
105 |
Purdue |
-6.5647 |
107 |
106 |
Nebraska |
-6.6499 |
92 |
107 |
Temple |
-6.7223 |
100 |
108 |
Virginia Tech |
-6.7539 |
108 |
109 |
St. Peter's |
-7.1765 |
103 |
110 |
California |
-7.2273 |
109 |
111 |
Eastern Washington @ |
-7.3059 |
127 |
112 |
Clemson |
-7.3662 |
90 |
113 |
Mississippi Valley St. |
-7.6079 |
134 |
114 |
Pepperdine |
-7.6213 |
129 |
115 |
Fairfield |
-7.6910 |
125 |
116 |
Chattanooga |
-7.8614 |
122 |
117 |
Mississippi |
-7.9844 |
95 |
118 |
Davidson |
-7.9845 |
118 |
119 |
Fresno St. |
-8.0027 |
102 |
120 |
Valparaiso @ |
-8.0830 |
139 |
121 |
Pennsylvania |
-8.1317 |
124 |
122 |
Northwestern |
-8.1411 |
105 |
123 |
Middle Tennessee |
-8.5925 |
128 |
124 |
New Orleans |
-8.7507 |
131 |
125 |
Delaware |
-8.9070 |
130 |
126 |
Kansas St. |
-8.9176 |
114 |
127 |
Buffalo |
-8.9566 |
136 |
128 |
Georgia Southern |
-9.0720 |
143 |
129 |
Wisconsin Green Bay |
-9.1628 |
137 |
130 |
San Francisco |
-9.1756 |
119 |
131 |
Southern California |
-9.2952 |
112 |
132 |
Hofstra |
-9.5206 |
140 |
133 |
Northeastern |
-9.6865 |
154 |
134 |
Maine |
-9.7489 |
155 |
135 |
Arkansas |
-9.8678 |
111 |
136 |
IUPUI |
-9.9400 |
141 |
137 |
Santa Clara |
-9.9527 |
138 |
138 |
American |
-10.0035 |
159 |
139 |
Ball St. |
-10.0526 |
146 |
140 |
Birmingham Southern |
-10.1428 |
161 |
141 |
UCLA |
-10.2154 |
133 |
142 |
Lafayette |
-10.2619 |
148 |
143 |
NC Wilmington |
-10.3890 |
135 |
144 |
Western Kentucky |
-10.4401 |
144 |
145 |
Texas Christian |
-10.5084 |
120 |
146 |
Oral Roberts |
-10.6056 |
157 |
147 |
Liberty @ |
-10.7980 |
165 |
148 |
Southern Mississippi |
-11.0948 |
123 |
149 |
San Diego St. |
-11.2216 |
117 |
150 |
Wyoming |
-11.2244 |
126 |
151 |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
-11.2963 |
164 |
152 |
Stephen F. Austin |
-11.3534 |
172 |
153 |
Cal Santa Barbara |
-11.4738 |
153 |
154 |
Wright St. |
-11.4810 |
163 |
155 |
Rider |
-11.9247 |
175 |
156 |
Arkansas Little Rock |
-11.9687 |
182 |
157 |
New Mexico |
-11.9902 |
145 |
158 |
Marshall |
-12.0147 |
150 |
159 |
Colorado St. |
-12.0417 |
132 |
160 |
Lehigh @ |
-12.0591 |
194 |
161 |
SE Louisiana |
-12.3328 |
179 |
162 |
Georgetown |
-12.3726 |
142 |
163 |
Butler |
-12.3805 |
166 |
164 |
Ohio St. |
-12.4892 |
147 |
165 |
Texas San Antonio @ |
-12.5457 |
200 |
166 |
Washington St. |
-12.5517 |
149 |
167 |
Arkansas St. |
-13.0403 |
177 |
168 |
Bradley |
-13.0619 |
152 |
169 |
Centenary |
-13.1252 |
183 |
170 |
Denver |
-13.1797 |
169 |
171 |
Siena |
-13.4446 |
167 |
172 |
Idaho |
-13.5001 |
160 |
173 |
Duquesne |
-13.5344 |
162 |
174 |
Morehead St. |
-13.6680 |
176 |
175 |
Oregon St. |
-13.7471 |
168 |
176 |
Louisiana Tech |
-13.8507 |
158 |
177 |
Texas Arlington |
-13.9009 |
205 |
178 |
Brown |
-13.9920 |
209 |
179 |
Furman |
-14.0078 |
195 |
180 |
Loyola Marymount |
-14.0718 |
180 |
181 |
Miami FL |
-14.1124 |
171 |
182 |
Missouri Kansas City |
-14.1930 |
202 |
183 |
Portland |
-14.4755 |
193 |
184 |
Binghamton |
-14.6905 |
204 |
185 |
East Carolina |
-14.6914 |
151 |
186 |
Cal St. Northridge |
-14.8145 |
186 |
187 |
Central Connecticut |
-14.8447 |
207 |
188 |
St. Francis NY |
-14.9328 |
226 |
189 |
Minnesota |
-14.9506 |
156 |
190 |
Winthrop |
-14.9544 |
210 |
191 |
Bucknell |
-15.0415 |
216 |
192 |
South Alabama |
-15.0596 |
191 |
193 |
South Carolina St. |
-15.0906 |
218 |
194 |
Weber St. |
-15.1293 |
178 |
195 |
Robert Morris |
-15.2063 |
217 |
196 |
Texas A&M Corpus Chris |
-15.2347 |
185 |
197 |
Chicago St. |
-15.2600 |
206 |
198 |
Southern Methodist |
-15.3208 |
170 |
199 |
New Mexico St. |
-15.8410 |
190 |
200 |
High Point |
-15.9755 |
220 |
201 |
Akron |
-16.0866 |
201 |
202 |
Drake |
-16.1130 |
196 |
203 |
Massachusetts |
-16.1779 |
174 |
204 |
Alabama St. @ |
-16.1907 |
230 |
205 |
Bowling Green |
-16.2051 |
199 |
206 |
Coppin St. |
-16.3181 |
234 |
207 |
Iona |
-16.3405 |
203 |
208 |
Tulane |
-16.4054 |
181 |
209 |
St. John's |
-16.4504 |
173 |
210 |
Arizona St. |
-16.5128 |
184 |
211 |
Wagner |
-16.5368 |
219 |
212 |
North Texas |
-16.8988 |
237 |
213 |
Yale |
-16.9790 |
214 |
214 |
Eastern Kentucky |
-16.9843 |
215 |
215 |
Texas Pan American |
-17.1417 |
212 |
216 |
Holy Cross |
-17.1766 |
227 |
217 |
Illinois St. |
-17.2903 |
192 |
218 |
Penn St. |
-17.7298 |
189 |
219 |
Northern Arizona |
-17.8378 |
238 |
220 |
Houston |
-17.9323 |
187 |
221 |
Colgate |
-17.9869 |
239 |
222 |
Stetson |
-18.0898 |
224 |
223 |
St. Francis PA |
-18.1507 |
249 |
224 |
La Salle |
-18.1649 |
188 |
225 |
Mercer |
-18.1979 |
208 |
226 |
Baylor |
-18.3669 |
213 |
227 |
Tulsa |
-18.3860 |
197 |
228 |
Montana St. |
-18.6164 |
244 |
229 |
Idaho St. |
-18.6583 |
228 |
230 |
Ohio |
-18.8173 |
231 |
231 |
Tennessee Tech |
-18.9211 |
221 |
232 |
Delaware St. |
-18.9425 |
240 |
233 |
Elon |
-18.9563 |
243 |
234 |
Florida A&M @ |
-18.9656 |
262 |
235 |
Cal Irvine |
-19.0199 |
223 |
236 |
Hartford |
-19.0481 |
235 |
237 |
Sacramento St. |
-19.0506 |
256 |
238 |
Western Carolina |
-19.1839 |
236 |
239 |
Sacred Heart |
-19.2209 |
251 |
240 |
Oakland |
-19.3972 |
233 |
241 |
St. Bonaventure |
-19.5951 |
198 |
242 |
Cal St. Fullerton |
-19.8078 |
241 |
243 |
Coastal Carolina |
-19.8159 |
263 |
244 |
Loyola Chicago |
-19.8325 |
225 |
245 |
Indiana St. |
-20.0421 |
229 |
246 |
Mount St. Mary's |
-20.1426 |
261 |
247 |
Cal Riverside |
-20.1783 |
245 |
248 |
Montana |
-20.2899 |
254 |
249 |
Evansville |
-20.3698 |
232 |
250 |
Jacksonville St. |
-20.4910 |
252 |
251 |
NC Greensboro |
-20.5773 |
255 |
252 |
Samford |
-20.6537 |
260 |
253 |
Alcorn St. |
-20.6569 |
277 |
254 |
Cal Poly |
-20.7289 |
242 |
255 |
Cornell |
-20.8120 |
269 |
256 |
Eastern Michigan |
-20.8343 |
253 |
257 |
Hampton |
-20.8865 |
271 |
258 |
Southern Utah |
-20.8899 |
259 |
259 |
Louisiana Monroe |
-20.9101 |
268 |
260 |
Jacksonville |
-21.0469 |
250 |
261 |
McNeese St. |
-21.1707 |
264 |
262 |
Alabama A&M |
-21.1948 |
280 |
263 |
Texas St. |
-21.2098 |
275 |
264 |
Jackson St. |
-21.3493 |
274 |
265 |
Stony Brook |
-21.4956 |
266 |
266 |
Canisius |
-21.5039 |
247 |
267 |
Fordham |
-21.5651 |
211 |
268 |
Texas Southern |
-21.5974 |
287 |
269 |
Northwestern St. |
-21.6239 |
283 |
270 |
Sam Houston St. |
-21.6556 |
281 |
271 |
Appalachian St. |
-21.9757 |
248 |
272 |
Youngstown St. |
-22.1168 |
257 |
273 |
Southern |
-22.1250 |
285 |
274 |
NC Asheville |
-22.3092 |
272 |
275 |
Portland St. |
-22.3307 |
270 |
276 |
Morgan St. |
-22.3785 |
284 |
277 |
South Florida |
-22.4999 |
222 |
278 |
Tennessee Martin |
-22.5443 |
258 |
279 |
Columbia |
-22.9471 |
286 |
280 |
New Hampshire |
-22.9975 |
273 |
281 |
Radford |
-23.1011 |
295 |
282 |
Southeast Missouri St. |
-23.2173 |
267 |
283 |
Grambling |
-23.2463 |
296 |
284 |
William & Mary |
-23.2797 |
265 |
285 |
Norfolk St. |
-23.2833 |
310 |
286 |
Wofford |
-23.5331 |
276 |
287 |
Northern Illinois |
-23.8316 |
279 |
288 |
Long Island |
-23.8827 |
289 |
289 |
Texas A&M |
-23.9251 |
246 |
290 |
Lamar |
-24.4982 |
294 |
291 |
Quinnipiac |
-24.5122 |
301 |
292 |
Towson |
-24.6913 |
278 |
293 |
Marist |
-24.9017 |
288 |
294 |
Tennessee St. |
-24.9258 |
293 |
295 |
MD Baltimore County |
-24.9896 |
299 |
296 |
Harvard |
-25.1833 |
308 |
297 |
Prairie View A&M |
-25.2965 |
306 |
298 |
Savannah St. |
-25.3097 |
304 |
299 |
San Diego |
-25.3112 |
298 |
300 |
IUPU Fort Wayne |
-25.4879 |
303 |
301 |
Gardner Webb |
-25.5001 |
292 |
302 |
Long Beach St. |
-25.5312 |
300 |
303 |
James Madison |
-25.5687 |
290 |
304 |
Maryland Eastern Shore |
-25.5802 |
318 |
305 |
Army |
-25.7250 |
319 |
306 |
Virginia Military Inst |
-25.8179 |
312 |
307 |
Bethune Cookman |
-25.8624 |
320 |
308 |
Florida Atlantic |
-25.9078 |
297 |
309 |
Albany |
-26.1100 |
309 |
310 |
Florida International |
-26.1638 |
311 |
311 |
The Citadel |
-26.5223 |
305 |
312 |
Howard |
-26.6231 |
321 |
313 |
Western Illinois |
-26.7115 |
313 |
314 |
Lipscomb |
-26.7194 |
302 |
315 |
Dartmouth |
-26.7385 |
324 |
316 |
Eastern Illinois |
-26.7609 |
314 |
317 |
Central Michigan |
-26.8603 |
291 |
318 |
Charleston Southern |
-27.0441 |
316 |
319 |
Navy |
-27.3185 |
315 |
320 |
San Jose St. |
-27.4875 |
282 |
321 |
Nicholls St. |
-27.6560 |
325 |
322 |
Cleveland St. |
-27.7198 |
307 |
323 |
North Carolina A&T |
-27.7596 |
323 |
324 |
Campbell |
-28.3329 |
317 |
325 |
Loyola MD |
-28.5737 |
322 |
326 |
Arkansas Pine Bluff |
-28.5851 |
326 |
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