DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2003 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 16, 2003 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Alabama and N.C. State), for a 2003 accuracy of 94%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Kentucky @ 11.6822 1
2 Arizona 8.5350 2
3 Oklahoma @ 8.3537 3
4 Pittsburgh @ 7.8780 8
5 Dayton @ 7.2918 13
6 Wake Forest 7.2908 7
7 Kansas 7.2453 6
8 Marquette 7.1806 10
9 Georgia 6.9754 5
10 Duke @ 6.8688 12
11 Syracuse 6.7084 9
12 Texas 6.3898 4
13 Florida 6.0974 15
14 Louisville @ 5.7858 11
15 Illinois @ 5.4450 18
16 Xavier (OH) 5.1793 20
17 Brigham Young 4.7313 19
18 Utah 4.6665 16
19 Stanford 4.5500 21
20 Notre Dame 4.5079 14
21 Creighton @ 4.1378 23
22 Wisconsin 4.1065 25
23 St. Joseph's (PA) 4.0655 27
24 Missouri 3.8874 17
25 Memphis 3.5132 26
26 Mississippi St. 3.3215 24
27 Connecticut 3.0052 28
28 Oklahoma St. 2.9437 22
29 Michigan St. 2.7149 31
30 California 2.6167 33
31 Southern Illinois 2.3964 34
32 Weber St. @ 2.2852 41
33 Butler 2.1966 35
34 UNLV (Miss) 1.8371 40
35 Wisconsin Milwaukee @ 1.6799 45
36 Maryland 1.6665 37
37 Central Michigan @ 1.4752 44
38 Cincinnati 1.3307 29
39 NC Wilmington @ 1.2398 51
40 Manhattan @ 1.0378 55
41 Purdue 1.0221 30
42 Gonzaga 1.0148 43
43 Colorado 1.0044 46
44 Arizona St. 0.9195 32
45 LSU 0.9170 39
46 Indiana 0.5922 47
47 Western Kentucky @ 0.4546 58
48 Holy Cross @ 0.3340 61
49 Texas Tech (Miss) 0.0829 48
50 Auburn 0.0383 36
  Bubble Point    
51 Tulsa @ -0.1550 64
52 Alabama (Miss) -0.1589 38
53 Boston College -0.2100 49
54 Seton Hall -0.2614 42
55 St. Louis -0.3854 57
56 North Carolina St. (Miss) -0.5510 53
57 Pennsylvania @ -0.6693 59
58 Oregon @ -0.7069 50
59 Troy St. @ -0.9154 66
60 Austin Peay @ -0.9235 73
61 Providence -1.2053 56
62 Wyoming -1.2324 63
63 Tennessee -1.2496 60
64 College of Charleston -1.2900 67
65 North Carolina -1.2959 52
66 Fresno St. -1.8287 69
67 Michigan -1.8901 65
68 Ohio St. -2.1315 54
69 Sam Houston St. @ -2.1948 91
70 Kent St. -2.2497 77
71 Utah St. @ -2.3844 79
72 Louisiana Lafayette -2.7914 72
73 Fairfield -3.1619 83
74 Texas A&M -3.2270 68
75 DePaul -3.2289 62
76 Illinois Chicago -3.3690 74
77 San Diego @ -3.5411 82
78 Georgia Tech -3.6664 76
79 Temple -3.9603 88
80 Colorado St. @ -4.0778 75
81 Minnesota -4.0796 71
82 Stephen F. Austin -4.1753 102
83 Mercer -4.2371 105
84 Virginia -4.4419 80
85 Richmond -4.4662 93
86 Wagner @ -4.5251 103
87 Hawaii -4.6206 84
88 Valparaiso -4.6241 96
89 Drexel -4.6796 87
90 Villanova -4.7003 70
91 Cal Irvine -5.0027 104
92 Western Michigan -5.1902 86
93 Rhode Island -5.3548 85
94 Siena -5.4692 109
95 UAB -5.4845 90
96 Chattanooga -5.5676 108
97 Rice -5.6726 97
98 Charlotte -6.0194 95
99 Boston University -6.0753 121
100 St. John's (NY) -6.1649 78
101 Central Florida -6.4259 128
102 Georgetown -6.5740 100
103 Niagara -6.5976 124
104 East Tennessee St. @ -6.6509 125
105 Iowa St. -6.6764 94
106 Nevada -6.7666 98
107 San Diego St. -6.7957 99
108 Wichita St. -7.1295 122
109 VA Commonwealth -7.1951 120
110 George Mason -7.2379 116
111 New Mexico St. -7.2411 114
112 Florida St. -7.2985 81
113 South Carolina -7.3691 89
114 Cal Santa Barbara -7.4413 133
115 Southern Methodist -7.7435 123
116 Northern Illinois -7.8832 117
117 SW Missouri St. -7.9228 119
118 Eastern Washington -7.9621 113
119 Morehead St. -7.9650 131
120 Southern California -8.0072 111
121 Tennessee Tech -8.1487 126
122 Vanderbilt -8.3349 92
123 Baylor -8.3926 112
124 Vermont @ -8.4806 144
125 Clemson -8.5007 107
126 Brown -8.5641 146
127 Mississippi -8.8240 101
128 Princeton -8.9490 147
129 South Florida -9.0576 127
130 Detroit -9.0608 115
131 Kansas St. -9.4360 130
132 Belmont -9.5309 143
133 Middle Tennessee St. -9.6215 145
134 Iowa -9.7119 118
135 West Virginia -9.7419 110
136 Arkansas -9.7685 106
137 South Carolina St. @ -10.0690 178
138 Iona -10.2398 153
139 IUPUI @ -10.2450 160
140 Ohio -10.2864 141
141 Appalachian St. -10.3250 162
142 Davidson -10.3338 155
143 Pepperdine -10.3756 138
144 San Francisco -10.4818 134
145 Miami (OH) -10.4859 148
146 Murray St. -10.6237 135
147 Tulane -10.6795 142
148 Rutgers -10.6809 129
149 Hartford -10.8131 165
150 St. Mary's (CA) -11.0500 139
151 Arkansas Little Rock -11.0642 150
152 Nebraska -11.1528 132
153 Winthrop -11.2536 183
154 St. Bonaventure -11.3667 140
155 South Alabama -11.3724 151
156 American -11.4042 166
157 Evansville -11.4199 152
158 Yale -11.7054 163
159 Texas Arlington -11.7154 174
160 UCLA -11.7648 136
161 Delaware -11.8465 154
162 Hampton -11.9415 187
163 Southern Mississippi -12.2381 149
164 Ball St. -12.4350 137
165 Oral Roberts -12.5962 170
166 Loyola Chicago -12.8054 159
167 Jacksonville St. -12.9012 180
168 Akron -12.9864 182
169 Louisiana Tech -13.0089 177
170 Monmouth (NJ) -13.0471 193
171 Denver -13.1672 173
172 George Washington -13.2337 164
173 Air Force -13.4212 158
174 Toledo -13.4476 167
175 Eastern Illinois -13.5041 185
176 Cal Poly-SLO -13.6775 184
177 Quinnipiac -13.8076 190
178 Idaho St. -13.8391 175
179 SW Texas St. -13.9223 198
180 Delaware St. -13.9807 201
181 Marist -14.0213 176
182 Prairie View A&M -14.0284 203
183 McNeese St. -14.0398 181
184 Marshall -14.1013 196
185 Oakland -14.1028 199
186 Washington -14.1561 161
187 Old Dominion -14.1744 195
188 Bowling Green -14.1861 171
189 NC Asheville @ -14.1943 186
190 New Mexico -14.2998 168
191 Oregon St. -14.4154 157
192 Florida A&M -14.4589 194
193 New Orleans -14.5015 179
194 East Carolina -14.7228 156
195 Central Connecticut -14.7437 211
196 Northwestern -14.9877 169
197 Texas Southern @ -15.0062 217
198 Binghamton -15.2776 212
199 Birmingham Southern -15.2927 189
200 Samford -15.3913 204
201 Bradley -15.5179 192
202 Eastern Michigan -15.5374 205
203 La Salle -15.8681 172
204 St. Francis (PA) -16.2436 221
205 Virginia Tech -16.3172 200
206 Pacific -16.5020 206
207 Georgia St. -16.5698 218
208 Georgia Southern -16.5764 215
209 Northeastern -16.7719 226
210 Boise St. -16.8081 191
211 Lehigh -16.8589 227
212 Charleston Southern -16.9386 223
213 Mississippi Valley St. -17.0056 239
214 Arkansas St. -17.0533 224
215 Maine -17.0630 216
216 Montana -17.1721 210
217 Northern Arizona -17.1813 214
218 Jacksonville -17.2092 230
219 Rider -17.3816 213
220 Furman -17.5295 225
221 Miami (FL) -17.7006 188
222 St. Francis (NY) -17.7145 238
223 Santa Clara -17.8541 208
224 Cal St. Northridge -17.8576 220
225 Tennessee Martin -17.8658 228
226 Colgate -18.0031 250
227 Elon -18.0093 244
228 Harvard -18.0630 207
229 Coppin St. -18.0984 246
230 Bucknell -18.1052 236
231 TCU -18.4382 197
232 Wofford -18.4601 233
233 Idaho -18.4943 251
234 Lamar -18.5831 242
235 James Madison -18.6350 235
236 Fairleigh Dickinson -18.8650 249
237 Liberty -18.8979 258
238 St. Peter's -19.0125 231
239 Massachusetts -19.0686 209
240 Alabama St. -19.0842 248
241 Loyola Marymount -19.1791 229
242 Alcorn St. -19.3723 264
243 Houston -19.3853 219
244 Montana St. -19.6046 240
245 Northern Iowa -19.9390 245
246 Louisiana Monroe -20.0621 266
247 Penn St. -20.0778 202
248 Missouri Kansas City -20.3206 270
249 Howard -20.3553 261
250 Illinois St. -20.4395 222
251 Portland -20.4502 241
252 Wisconsin Green Bay -20.4582 234
253 SE Louisiana -20.5120 252
254 Coastal Carolina -20.6995 257
255 Cal St. Sacramento -20.7403 253
256 Canisius -20.9089 247
257 Texas San Antonio -20.9423 254
258 Lafayette -20.9735 259
259 Jackson St. -21.1687 278
260 Cal St. Fullerton -21.2294 271
261 Stony Brook -21.5002 267
262 Long Island -21.5155 273
263 Wright St. -21.5361 237
264 William & Mary -21.5425 265
265 Duquesne -21.6456 243
266 Norfolk St. -21.6844 282
267 Hofstra -21.8518 255
268 Radford -21.8796 285
269 Southern Utah -21.9212 276
270 Robert Morris -21.9396 284
271 SE Missouri St. -21.9535 269
272 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -22.0087 263
273 Washington St. -22.1707 232
274 Grambling -22.4550 277
275 Mount St. Mary's -22.5864 281
276 Eastern Kentucky -22.5931 275
277 Drake -22.8011 262
278 North Texas -22.8735 256
279 Centenary -22.9258 279
280 VMI -22.9291 274
281 Western Carolina -23.2901 290
282 Navy -23.6095 286
283 Indiana St. -23.7615 260
284 Dartmouth -23.7897 291
285 IUPU Ft. Wayne -23.8621 283
286 Cornell -23.9009 292
287 Cal Riverside -23.9498 288
288 Sacred Heart -24.0007 295
289 Albany (NY) -24.1230 294
290 Florida International -24.1641 272
291 NC Greensboro -24.3236 287
292 Youngstown St. -24.3575 280
293 Northwestern St. -24.7470 304
294 Florida Atlantic -24.8420 293
295 High Point -25.0806 306
296 Stetson -25.1042 298
297 San Jose St. -25.1262 297
298 Texas Pan American -25.1788 310
299 MD Baltimore County -25.1901 302
300 Lipscomb -25.2251 319
301 New Hampshire -25.2305 309
302 Cleveland St. -25.4053 268
303 Morgan St. -25.4989 320
304 Western Illinois -25.5116 305
305 Bethune Cookman -25.5258 311
306 Portland St. -25.6421 296
307 Morris Brown -25.6894 327
308 The Citadel -25.6898 300
309 MD Eastern Shore -25.9231 321
310 Savannah St. -25.9760 326
311 Gardner Webb -26.0753 299
312 Alabama A&M -26.0978 313
313 Southern -26.1959 324
314 Buffalo -26.2868 303
315 Long Beach St. -26.3954 308
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff -26.3959 312
317 Campbell -26.9490 317
318 Army -27.2959 316
319 Loyola (MD) -27.4527 307
320 Fordham -27.7222 289
321 Texas El Paso -27.7480 301
322 Columbia -27.8722 325
323 Tennessee St. -27.9124 322
324 North Carolina A&T -27.9151 323
325 Towson -27.9787 315
326 Chicago St. -28.2913 314
327 Nicholls St. -28.7332 318