DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2002 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 10, 2002 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Missouri and Wyoming), for a 2002 accuracy of 94%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Duke @ 10.2057 4
2 Cincinnati @ 9.8377 2
3 Maryland 8.5710 3
4 Kansas 8.1427 1
5 Connecticut @ 7.9796 8
6 Alabama 7.7727 7
7 Oklahoma @ 7.4656 5
8 Mississippi St. @ 6.7690 9
9 Pittsburgh 6.7048 10
10 Arizona @ 6.2804 6
11 Illinois 6.1790 12
12 Xavier (OH) @ 5.7599 14
13 Kent St. @ 5.6785 25
14 Florida 5.4403 15
15 Texas Tech 5.2093 13
16 Gonzaga @ 5.1377 21
17 Kentucky 5.0517 11
18 Hawaii @ 4.8851 27
19 Marquette 4.8249 23
20 Georgia 4.1077 18
21 Miami (FL) 4.0604 16
22 Western Kentucky @ 3.9551 28
23 Ohio St. @ 3.9351 17
24 Oregon 3.9123 34
25 Indiana 3.8666 20
26 Texas 3.7311 22
27 California 3.6325 29
28 Wake Forest 3.2179 24
29 North Carolina St. 3.0802 32
30 Oklahoma St. 2.9960 19
31 Southern California 2.4922 26
32 Pennsylvania @ 2.0097 36
33 Charlotte 1.9605 37
34 Utah 1.8878 31
35 Michigan St. 1.4046 35
36 Tulsa 1.3598 33
37 Central Connecticut @ 1.2445 53
38 Creighton @ 1.2088 44
39 Southern Illinois 1.1910 48
40 St. John's (NY) 1.0103 40
41 Mississippi 0.9287 45
42 Pepperdine 0.7096 49
43 Stanford 0.6911 38
44 San Diego St. @ 0.6816 39
45 UNLV (Miss) 0.4499 51
46 Boston College 0.3502 42
47 Notre Dame 0.2280 41
48 UCLA 0.1668 30
49 NC Wilmington @ 0.1666 57
50 Villanova (Miss) 0.0819 43
51 Wisconsin -0.0561 55
  Bubble Point    
52 Utah St. -0.2442 60
53 Bowling Green -0.2614 58
54 Missouri (Miss) -0.3133 54
55 South Carolina -0.3250 47
56 Wyoming (Miss) -0.4203 63
57 Georgetown -0.9356 56
58 Richmond -1.4393 74
59 LSU -1.7360 68
60 Louisville -1.9864 61
61 Memphis -2.1010 69
62 Valparaiso @ -2.1389 83
63 Butler -2.1833 77
64 Brigham Young -2.2574 52
65 McNeese St. @ -2.2739 89
66 Minnesota -2.2899 71
67 Louisiana Tech -2.3366 72
68 Dayton -2.3523 62
69 Tennessee -2.5233 65
70 Virginia -2.6120 50
71 Davidson @ -2.6715 79
72 Arkansas -2.7402 46
73 Temple -2.7500 80
74 St. Joseph's (PA) -2.8239 73
75 Ball St. -2.8367 78
76 Vanderbilt -2.9821 59
77 Hampton @ -3.1941 105
78 Iowa -3.3209 70
79 Cal Santa Barbara @ -3.3260 85
80 Syracuse -3.3812 67
81 Georgia St. -3.6205 94
82 VA Commonwealth -3.6697 87
83 Cal Irvine -3.7409 92
84 Princeton -3.7432 76
85 George Mason -3.7617 91
86 Louisiana Lafayette -3.8723 93
87 Yale -4.0689 101
88 Georgia Tech -4.0760 86
89 Fresno St. -4.2213 64
90 Tennessee Tech -4.2997 104
91 College of Charleston -4.3658 88
92 South Florida -4.5484 75
93 Detroit -4.5788 90
94 Rutgers -4.8967 84
95 Houston -4.9978 81
96 New Mexico St. -5.2158 95
97 Louisiana Monroe -5.2646 99
98 Illinois St. -5.4525 98
99 St. Bonaventure -5.5693 82
100 Montana St. -5.5718 103
101 New Mexico -5.8221 66
102 Florida Atlantic @ -5.9472 123
103 Providence -5.9759 96
104 St. Louis -6.4786 111
105 Wagner -6.6296 114
106 NC Greensboro -6.7532 112
107 Ohio -6.7735 115
108 Pacific -6.8320 108
109 Troy St. -7.4665 122
110 Northwestern -7.5711 127
111 Manhattan -7.6354 129
112 Marist -7.7081 131
113 Nevada -7.7273 107
114 East Tennessee St. -7.7663 113
115 Massachusetts -8.1230 106
116 Illinois Chicago @ -8.3480 124
117 Nebraska -8.3669 109
118 Monmouth (NJ) -8.3960 132
119 Brown -8.3991 120
120 Arizona St. -8.4077 97
121 Wright St. -8.6118 126
122 Chattanooga -8.6337 121
123 Miami (OH) -8.6834 118
124 Colorado -8.8122 117
125 Eastern Washington -8.8503 143
126 Auburn -8.8815 102
127 Boston University @ -8.9424 149
128 Oakland -9.0881 135
129 Purdue -9.1041 100
130 Texas San Antonio -9.1126 148
131 MD Baltimore County -9.1581 153
132 Samford -9.2146 141
133 Southern Methodist -9.3616 116
134 Weber St. -9.3926 138
135 Drexel -9.5227 147
136 Kansas St. -9.5636 136
137 Toledo -9.5893 139
138 Murray St. @ -9.6098 146
139 San Diego -9.6894 133
140 Jacksonville -9.7463 152
141 Loyola Chicago -9.8023 157
142 Central Florida -9.8500 151
143 Florida St. -10.0119 128
144 Wisconsin Milwaukee -10.0324 160
145 Alcorn St. @ -10.1488 182
146 Georgia Southern -10.1811 158
147 Delaware -10.5208 140
148 North Carolina -10.5260 119
149 SW Missouri St. -10.5743 144
150 Oral Roberts -10.6633 165
151 Washington -10.7632 110
152 Rider -10.7808 172
153 Holy Cross @ -11.0081 162
154 Vermont -11.0340 180
155 Western Michigan -11.0812 150
156 Niagara -11.1717 164
157 La Salle -11.1982 145
158 Michigan -11.4028 142
159 American -11.4034 170
160 Baylor -11.4974 155
161 Tulane -11.5043 130
162 TCU -11.5150 134
163 Seton Hall -11.6024 125
164 Furman -11.7006 159
165 George Washington -11.8729 137
166 Marshall -12.1544 171
167 Montana @ -12.2014 177
168 Missouri Kansas City -12.2439 161
169 St. Francis (NY) -12.3542 183
170 Morehead St. -12.3908 184
171 Arkansas Little Rock -12.4438 169
172 UAB -12.5641 156
173 Harvard -12.6264 174
174 Clemson -12.7904 154
175 Cal St. Northridge -12.9758 175
176 New Orleans -13.1302 188
177 The Citadel -13.1338 178
178 Wichita St. -13.3353 166
179 Northern Iowa -13.5110 168
180 East Carolina -13.5576 173
181 Howard -14.2507 199
182 North Texas -14.3649 195
183 Cal Poly-SLO -14.3850 186
184 Iowa St. -14.4772 167
185 South Carolina St. -14.5074 207
186 Santa Clara -14.5766 197
187 Winthrop @ -14.6323 217
188 Lafayette -14.8478 203
189 Texas A&M -14.9426 189
190 Sam Houston St. -15.0250 201
191 Texas Pan American -15.0794 191
192 IUPUI -15.1021 194
193 Colgate -15.1830 200
194 Drake -15.1986 190
195 Siena @ -15.2905 218
196 Alabama A&M -15.3730 219
197 San Francisco -15.3930 202
198 Alabama St. -15.6058 222
199 Quinnipiac -15.8601 209
200 Boise St. -15.8989 176
201 Colorado St. -15.9530 163
202 Hofstra -16.0817 187
203 Old Dominion -16.1091 181
204 Lamar -16.2566 208
205 Middle Tennessee St. -16.3217 205
206 Long Beach St. -16.4438 192
207 Virginia Tech -16.5545 196
208 Belmont -16.7628 206
209 Northern Illinois -16.8418 215
210 Duquesne -17.2410 185
211 Portland St. -17.2457 221
212 Southern Mississippi -17.2699 204
213 Iona -17.3454 235
214 Austin Peay -17.4030 212
215 Delaware St. -17.5098 247
216 Northern Arizona -17.5889 230
217 Cleveland St. -17.6741 210
218 Fairfield -17.7719 237
219 William & Mary -17.8416 226
220 DePaul -17.9299 193
221 Air Force -17.9387 198
222 Arkansas St. -18.1502 213
223 Jacksonville St. -18.2797 242
224 Hartford -18.3542 248
225 Bucknell -18.3714 246
226 Akron -18.4754 223
227 Oregon St. -18.5182 179
228 Eastern Illinois -18.5256 231
229 Radford -18.5502 241
230 Columbia -18.5521 214
231 Buffalo -18.7560 228
232 North Carolina A&T -18.7797 249
233 SW Texas St. -18.8409 240
234 Southern Utah -18.9413 255
235 Towson -19.1773 225
236 Central Michigan -19.1828 220
237 Stephen F. Austin -19.3611 250
238 James Madison -19.4054 229
239 Texas Southern -19.4435 258
240 Stetson -19.4917 238
241 Robert Morris -19.5507 254
242 Texas Arlington -19.6349 243
243 NC Asheville -19.8034 263
244 Tennessee Martin -19.8464 244
245 Northwestern St. -19.9862 239
246 Rice -20.2362 224
247 West Virginia -20.3863 211
248 Maine -20.5387 268
249 Western Carolina -20.6391 266
250 VMI -20.6803 252
251 Penn St. -20.9653 232
252 Rhode Island -20.9685 227
253 Centenary -20.9747 259
254 Fordham -21.0084 233
255 Wofford -21.1810 251
256 Norfolk St. -21.2088 265
257 Army -21.3089 272
258 New Hampshire -21.4039 271
259 Florida International -21.6577 253
260 Elon -21.6774 274
261 Bethune Cookman -21.7181 276
262 Bradley -21.7488 236
263 Wisconsin Green Bay -21.7548 269
264 Tennessee St. -21.8575 275
265 Texas El Paso -21.9186 216
266 San Jose St. -22.0178 245
267 Appalachian St. -22.1413 264
268 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -22.4796 284
269 Florida A&M -22.4895 291
270 Navy -22.5089 285
271 Mississippi Valley St. -22.5348 290
272 Idaho -22.6488 270
273 St. Francis (PA) -22.8069 273
274 Dartmouth -22.8104 260
275 St. Mary's (CA) -22.8223 256
276 Campbell -23.0389 281
277 Loyola Marymount -23.0443 262
278 Western Illinois -23.1335 278
279 High Point -23.1362 294
280 Idaho St. -23.2873 277
281 Jackson St. -23.2989 287
282 Sacred Heart -23.3074 282
283 Canisius -23.3879 280
284 Charleston Southern -23.4105 289
285 Binghamton -23.4865 300
286 Birmingham Southern -23.5341 297
287 Cal Riverside -23.7037 267
288 MD Eastern Shore -23.7371 293
289 Northeastern -24.1187 302
290 Grambling -24.2440 279
291 Albany (NY) -24.2696 299
292 Evansville -24.4125 261
293 Washington St. -24.4276 234
294 Long Island -24.5116 296
295 Prairie View A&M -24.5171 298
296 Indiana St. -24.5849 257
297 Portland -24.5952 286
298 Coastal Carolina -24.6681 304
299 South Alabama -24.7472 288
300 Southern -25.2616 311
301 Cal St. Sacramento -25.2850 317
302 Mercer -25.4800 283
303 Denver -25.6168 295
304 SE Louisiana -25.6302 306
305 SE Missouri St. -25.6543 310
306 Morris Brown -25.6724 305
307 Stony Brook -25.8175 307
308 Lipscomb -25.8584 322
309 St. Peter's -25.8938 309
310 Cornell -25.9431 292
311 Lehigh -26.0726 313
312 Loyola (MD) -26.1459 314
313 Eastern Michigan -26.3191 301
314 Youngstown St. -26.4609 308
315 Eastern Kentucky -26.4921 312
316 Liberty -26.8348 324
317 Coppin St. -26.8631 316
318 Cal St. Fullerton -26.9497 303
319 Fairleigh Dickinson -26.9772 319
320 Morgan St. -27.1974 320
321 Chicago St. -27.4329 318
322 Arkansas Pine Bluff -27.6145 323
323 Mount St. Mary's -27.9821 321
324 Nicholls St. -28.8949 315