DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2001 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2001 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 33 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Missouri), for a 2001 accuracy of 97%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Duke @ 10.4188 1
2 Boston College @ 9.1788 5
3 Stanford @ 9.0428 2
4 North Carolina 8.8877 4
5 Kentucky @ 7.4240 10
6 Illinois 7.3539 6
7 Michigan St. 7.0968 3
8 Arizona 6.8791 8
9 Texas 6.7003 9
10 Mississippi 6.5937 7
11 Oklahoma @ 6.1391 15
12 Florida 5.9671 17
13 UCLA 5.7818 11
14 Kansas 5.5493 12
15 Syracuse 5.2698 18
16 Iowa @ 4.7135 26
17 Southern California 4.5423 21
18 Iowa St. 4.5421 13
19 Fresno St. 4.4985 20
20 Tennessee 4.1042 14
21 Indiana 4.0251 16
22 Providence 3.9499 28
23 St. Joseph's (PA) 3.8211 36
24 Creighton 3.7634 23
25 Maryland 3.7615 22
26 Notre Dame 3.5971 25
27 Georgia St. @ 3.4149 32
28 Wisconsin 3.3764 19
29 Butler @ 3.1936 29
30 Ohio St. 3.0840 34
31 Brigham Young @ 2.8799 37
32 Hofstra @ 2.5062 46
33 Georgia 2.3286 27
34 Penn St. 2.2307 24
35 California 2.2041 35
36 Cincinnati 2.1906 31
37 Temple @ 2.1139 38
38 Wake Forest 1.5022 30
39 Georgetown 1.3992 42
40 Charlotte @ 1.3934 48
41 Arkansas 1.3436 41
42 Xavier (OH) 1.1599 44
43 Georgia Tech 0.8718 39
44 Oklahoma St. 0.8521 49
45 Richmond (Miss) 0.7031 43
46 Virginia 0.5286 33
  Bubble Point    
47 Utah -0.0183 50
48 Utah St. @ -0.0472 59
49 Gonzaga @ -0.3951 75
50 Pittsburgh -0.4277 56
51 Villanova -0.4417 45
52 Cal Irvine -0.4957 71
53 Tulsa -0.5622 61
54 Hawaii @ -0.7885 55
55 Alabama -0.9471 51
56 Southern Mississippi -1.2238 53
57 Missouri (Miss) -1.2573 47
58 Wyoming -1.4878 58
59 Mississippi St. -1.6581 40
60 Texas El Paso -1.7768 62
61 Auburn -1.8313 57
62 Connecticut -1.9497 54
63 Indiana St. @ -1.9529 81
64 Western Kentucky @ -2.0123 76
65 West Virginia -2.4964 66
66 Cal St. Northridge @ -2.5061 82
67 Detroit -2.5613 70
68 Massachusetts -2.6765 64
69 South Carolina -2.6874 60
70 Holy Cross @ -2.7813 85
71 St. John's (NY) -2.8243 65
72 TCU -2.8299 63
73 Southern Utah @ -2.9357 87
74 Pepperdine -3.2504 79
75 Illinois St. -3.4465 78
76 Miami (FL) -3.5365 77
77 New Mexico -3.5478 52
78 St. Bonaventure -3.5978 69
79 Toledo -3.8839 84
80 College of Charleston -4.0263 92
81 George Mason @ -4.0357 86
82 Kent St. @ -4.0448 93
83 Bradley -4.1260 96
84 Purdue -4.2429 67
85 NC Wilmington -4.2493 89
86 McNeese St. -4.2718 102
87 South Alabama -4.3132 88
88 Nebraska -4.6163 94
89 Seton Hall -4.6461 68
90 Tennessee Tech -4.6709 114
91 Santa Clara -4.7436 83
92 Ohio -4.9027 109
93 Iona @ -5.0121 110
94 Valparaiso -5.1866 111
95 Delaware -5.2197 97
96 Dayton -5.4076 72
97 Minnesota -5.5960 73
98 Austin Peay -5.6350 107
99 Central Michigan -5.7204 118
100 Vanderbilt -5.8833 74
101 Eastern Illinois @ -6.1918 115
102 Marshall -6.2001 105
103 Hampton @ -6.2250 132
104 Arizona St. -6.3792 90
105 Baylor -6.4190 101
106 UNLV -6.4408 99
107 Southern Methodist -6.5105 98
108 Siena -6.5964 117
109 Monmouth (NJ) @ -6.8663 133
110 Cleveland St. -6.9360 100
111 Princeton @ -7.0110 127
112 South Florida -7.0379 103
113 Troy St. -7.1786 123
114 Murray St. -7.2623 128
115 Marquette -7.2720 113
116 North Carolina St. -7.3422 91
117 St. Francis (NY) -7.5451 146
118 Memphis -7.6709 95
119 St. Louis -7.7642 116
120 Alabama St. @ -7.8136 150
121 Southern Illinois -7.8798 120
122 Wright St. -8.0623 122
123 Maine -8.2126 125
124 Miami (OH) -8.2157 121
125 UAB -8.2643 108
126 Canisius -8.3932 135
127 Rutgers -8.7730 80
128 Colorado -8.8002 106
129 Ball St. -8.9684 144
130 Marist -9.0174 142
131 Kansas St. -9.0948 119
132 Wisconsin Milwaukee -9.2295 124
133 Niagara -9.2542 151
134 Rider -9.2766 138
135 Oregon -9.4487 112
136 South Carolina St. -9.4786 153
137 Colorado St. -9.4976 131
138 Navy -9.5191 141
139 East Tennessee St. -9.8583 170
140 Pacific -9.9249 136
141 VA Commonwealth -10.0930 137
142 Michigan -10.2574 130
143 Drexel -10.2633 143
144 Louisiana Lafayette -10.4752 140
145 Radford -10.5422 162
146 Eastern Washington -10.5762 167
147 Louisville -10.5874 129
148 LSU -10.7305 104
149 Boise St. -10.7892 139
150 SW Missouri St. -10.9542 152
151 Chattanooga -11.0074 149
152 Evansville -11.2745 156
153 Long Beach St. -11.4990 160
154 Louisiana Tech -11.7706 172
155 Winthrop @ -11.9625 188
156 Northwestern St. @ -12.0667 169
157 Arkansas St. -12.0968 174
158 Manhattan -12.1033 173
159 Rice -12.1225 155
160 Northwestern -12.1567 134
161 San Diego -12.1615 157
162 NC Greensboro @ -12.2785 177
163 San Jose St. -12.3724 145
164 Youngstown St. -12.4327 176
165 Bowling Green -12.5789 163
166 George Washington -12.5944 126
167 MD Baltimore County -12.7597 185
168 New Orleans -12.7969 187
169 Washington St. -12.9787 166
170 Mississippi Valley St. -13.2349 197
171 Samford -13.3153 181
172 SE Missouri St. -13.3466 184
173 Stetson -13.6676 200
174 Sam Houston St. -13.6891 191
175 Jacksonville -13.7583 192
176 Oregon St. -13.8063 161
177 Washington -13.8229 158
178 Norfolk St. -13.9209 205
179 Wisconsin Green Bay -14.0824 159
180 San Diego St. -14.1022 154
181 Arkansas Little Rock -14.1987 183
182 Brown -14.2745 194
183 Boston University -14.3132 186
184 Old Dominion -14.3448 171
185 Weber St. -14.3630 180
186 Alabama A&M -14.3779 202
187 Texas San Antonio -14.3792 199
188 Illinois Chicago -14.4036 164
189 Drake -14.4600 193
190 East Carolina -14.5028 179
191 La Salle -14.6878 147
192 Nicholls St. -14.7493 207
193 Akron -14.8301 190
194 Fordham -14.8783 148
195 Georgia Southern -15.0250 213
196 Alcorn St. -15.0339 215
197 DePaul -15.0479 165
198 Cal Santa Barbara -15.2122 196
199 New Mexico St. -15.2640 203
200 Idaho St. -15.2863 195
201 Wagner -15.4139 211
202 Texas A&M -15.6126 178
203 Missouri Kansas City -15.7659 208
204 Texas Tech -15.9654 182
205 Florida St. -16.0014 175
206 Mercer -16.0044 209
207 Coppin St. -16.1701 210
208 The Citadel -16.2831 223
209 Oakland -16.3643 201
210 Clemson -16.4844 168
211 William & Mary -16.5991 216
212 Fairfield -16.7045 218
213 Delaware St. -16.7865 227
214 Pennsylvania -16.9680 219
215 James Madison -17.0142 198
216 Davidson -17.2048 225
217 Fairleigh Dickinson -17.3177 222
218 Texas Arlington -17.3403 237
219 NC Asheville -17.4482 235
220 Long Island -17.4581 241
221 Northeastern -17.6665 214
222 Harvard -17.7102 228
223 Montana St. -17.7277 221
224 SW Texas St. -17.7328 239
225 Stony Brook -17.9090 206
226 Nevada -17.9820 204
227 Houston -18.0462 212
228 Northern Arizona -18.0545 243
229 Central Connecticut -18.0703 244
230 Lehigh -18.1618 240
231 Morehead St. -18.3490 230
232 Virginia Tech -18.4933 189
233 North Carolina A&T -18.7156 246
234 Bucknell -18.7168 226
235 Vermont -18.7812 220
236 Wichita St. -18.9579 217
237 MD Eastern Shore -18.9700 247
238 Wofford -19.3200 233
239 Colgate -19.3776 253
240 Louisiana Monroe -19.3834 238
241 Columbia -19.5807 256
242 San Francisco -19.6131 231
243 Towson -19.9403 236
244 IUPUI -19.9418 251
245 Yale -20.1560 255
246 Tennessee St. -20.2797 263
247 Lafayette -20.5315 259
248 Air Force -20.7489 229
249 Tennessee Martin -20.9167 250
250 Oral Roberts -20.9236 258
251 St. Francis (PA) -20.9480 268
252 Duquesne -21.0582 224
253 Appalachian St. -21.0940 264
254 Jacksonville St. -21.1450 249
255 Montana -21.1836 260
256 Western Michigan -21.2814 257
257 Southern -21.3008 278
258 Loyola Chicago -21.3770 242
259 Tulane -21.3793 232
260 Portland -21.5279 248
261 Belmont -21.7226 270
262 Liberty -21.9216 280
263 Northern Iowa -21.9377 245
264 Texas A&M Corpus Chris -22.1031 273
265 American -22.1062 254
266 Howard -22.2776 274
267 Portland St. -22.3339 283
268 Florida International -22.3645 252
269 Furman -22.4469 269
270 Denver -22.5942 265
271 New Hampshire -22.6419 262
272 Florida Atlantic -22.6533 261
273 Loyola (MD) -22.6650 275
274 Lamar -22.7653 282
275 Loyola Marymount -22.7835 266
276 Sacred Heart -22.8065 288
277 Army -22.9423 290
278 Texas Pan American -23.0979 286
279 St. Peter's -23.2003 267
280 Western Illinois -23.2203 271
281 Bethune Cookman -23.3453 281
282 Stephen F. Austin -23.3623 289
283 Rhode Island -23.6202 234
284 Grambling -23.6408 284
285 Robert Morris -23.7662 287
286 Buffalo -24.0538 276
287 Cal Poly-SLO -24.1633 277
288 Centenary -24.1913 295
289 Charleston Southern -24.2459 296
290 Central Florida -24.2732 272
291 Coastal Carolina -24.3302 285
292 Jackson St. -24.3397 294
293 Mount St. Mary's -24.3407 306
294 Idaho -24.3615 279
295 Northern Illinois -24.4040 292
296 Texas Southern -24.4747 305
297 SE Louisiana -24.6087 291
298 VMI -24.6754 299
299 Western Carolina -25.0688 297
300 Campbell -25.0926 298
301 Cornell -25.2242 311
302 Albany (NY) -25.2424 317
303 Dartmouth -25.3135 303
304 Elon -25.4562 312
305 Florida A&M -25.5337 304
306 Cal St. Fullerton -25.5494 293
307 Morgan St. -25.8510 307
308 Eastern Kentucky -25.9458 301
309 High Point -26.0088 316
310 Prairie View A&M -26.0979 314
311 Chicago St. -26.3214 302
312 Quinnipiac -26.3611 313
313 Middle Tennessee St. -26.6255 308
314 Cal St. Sacramento -26.9513 318
315 North Texas -27.4014 300
316 Arkansas Pine Bluff -27.6405 319
317 Eastern Michigan -27.7226 309
318 Hartford -27.8698 310
319 St. Mary's (CA) -28.4486 315