Dance Card Rankings
for 2001 (Final)
At right are rankings of
all NCAA Division I men's
basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2001 (i.e., all
regular season and conference tournament games),
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North
Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer
University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the
Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences).
The Dance Card
correctly predicted 33 of the 34 at-large selections
(missing only on Missouri), for a 2001 accuracy of
97%.
A full description of the Dance
Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical
accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at
DanceCard.unf.edu.
| |
Data Sources |
In order to build the Dance Card formula,
Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from
CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry
Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc. The authors are extremely
grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.
In order to use the Dance Card to
develop the rankings shown, the authors used
game scores from Ken Pomeroy
to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.
The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his
generous and invaluable service.
Special thanks also go to
Kenneth Massey for
including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking
compilation
page.
Dance Card Authors |
Jay Coleman
is
the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative
Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of
Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and
Economics at Mercer University.
Special Thanks to SAS!! |
The authors would
like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute
Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card. In
particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an
absolute delight to work with.
Disclaimers |
This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any
capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association
(NCAA). SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are
registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other
countries. ® indicates USA registration.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu Jay Coleman's Home
Page This page last updated on
February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.
| | | |
Rank |
Team (@=automatic bid) |
Dance Card |
RPI Rank |
1 |
Duke @ |
10.4188 |
1 |
2 |
Boston College @ |
9.1788 |
5 |
3 |
Stanford @ |
9.0428 |
2 |
4 |
North Carolina |
8.8877 |
4 |
5 |
Kentucky @ |
7.4240 |
10 |
6 |
Illinois |
7.3539 |
6 |
7 |
Michigan St. |
7.0968 |
3 |
8 |
Arizona |
6.8791 |
8 |
9 |
Texas |
6.7003 |
9 |
10 |
Mississippi |
6.5937 |
7 |
11 |
Oklahoma @ |
6.1391 |
15 |
12 |
Florida |
5.9671 |
17 |
13 |
UCLA |
5.7818 |
11 |
14 |
Kansas |
5.5493 |
12 |
15 |
Syracuse |
5.2698 |
18 |
16 |
Iowa @ |
4.7135 |
26 |
17 |
Southern California |
4.5423 |
21 |
18 |
Iowa St. |
4.5421 |
13 |
19 |
Fresno St. |
4.4985 |
20 |
20 |
Tennessee |
4.1042 |
14 |
21 |
Indiana |
4.0251 |
16 |
22 |
Providence |
3.9499 |
28 |
23 |
St. Joseph's (PA) |
3.8211 |
36 |
24 |
Creighton |
3.7634 |
23 |
25 |
Maryland |
3.7615 |
22 |
26 |
Notre Dame |
3.5971 |
25 |
27 |
Georgia St. @ |
3.4149 |
32 |
28 |
Wisconsin |
3.3764 |
19 |
29 |
Butler @ |
3.1936 |
29 |
30 |
Ohio St. |
3.0840 |
34 |
31 |
Brigham Young @ |
2.8799 |
37 |
32 |
Hofstra @ |
2.5062 |
46 |
33 |
Georgia |
2.3286 |
27 |
34 |
Penn St. |
2.2307 |
24 |
35 |
California |
2.2041 |
35 |
36 |
Cincinnati |
2.1906 |
31 |
37 |
Temple @ |
2.1139 |
38 |
38 |
Wake Forest |
1.5022 |
30 |
39 |
Georgetown |
1.3992 |
42 |
40 |
Charlotte @ |
1.3934 |
48 |
41 |
Arkansas |
1.3436 |
41 |
42 |
Xavier (OH) |
1.1599 |
44 |
43 |
Georgia Tech |
0.8718 |
39 |
44 |
Oklahoma St. |
0.8521 |
49 |
45 |
Richmond (Miss) |
0.7031 |
43 |
46 |
Virginia |
0.5286 |
33 |
|
Bubble Point |
|
|
47 |
Utah |
-0.0183 |
50 |
48 |
Utah St. @ |
-0.0472 |
59 |
49 |
Gonzaga @ |
-0.3951 |
75 |
50 |
Pittsburgh |
-0.4277 |
56 |
51 |
Villanova |
-0.4417 |
45 |
52 |
Cal Irvine |
-0.4957 |
71 |
53 |
Tulsa |
-0.5622 |
61 |
54 |
Hawaii @ |
-0.7885 |
55 |
55 |
Alabama |
-0.9471 |
51 |
56 |
Southern Mississippi |
-1.2238 |
53 |
57 |
Missouri (Miss) |
-1.2573 |
47 |
58 |
Wyoming |
-1.4878 |
58 |
59 |
Mississippi St. |
-1.6581 |
40 |
60 |
Texas El Paso |
-1.7768 |
62 |
61 |
Auburn |
-1.8313 |
57 |
62 |
Connecticut |
-1.9497 |
54 |
63 |
Indiana St. @ |
-1.9529 |
81 |
64 |
Western Kentucky @ |
-2.0123 |
76 |
65 |
West Virginia |
-2.4964 |
66 |
66 |
Cal St. Northridge @ |
-2.5061 |
82 |
67 |
Detroit |
-2.5613 |
70 |
68 |
Massachusetts |
-2.6765 |
64 |
69 |
South Carolina |
-2.6874 |
60 |
70 |
Holy Cross @ |
-2.7813 |
85 |
71 |
St. John's (NY) |
-2.8243 |
65 |
72 |
TCU |
-2.8299 |
63 |
73 |
Southern Utah @ |
-2.9357 |
87 |
74 |
Pepperdine |
-3.2504 |
79 |
75 |
Illinois St. |
-3.4465 |
78 |
76 |
Miami (FL) |
-3.5365 |
77 |
77 |
New Mexico |
-3.5478 |
52 |
78 |
St. Bonaventure |
-3.5978 |
69 |
79 |
Toledo |
-3.8839 |
84 |
80 |
College of Charleston |
-4.0263 |
92 |
81 |
George Mason @ |
-4.0357 |
86 |
82 |
Kent St. @ |
-4.0448 |
93 |
83 |
Bradley |
-4.1260 |
96 |
84 |
Purdue |
-4.2429 |
67 |
85 |
NC Wilmington |
-4.2493 |
89 |
86 |
McNeese St. |
-4.2718 |
102 |
87 |
South Alabama |
-4.3132 |
88 |
88 |
Nebraska |
-4.6163 |
94 |
89 |
Seton Hall |
-4.6461 |
68 |
90 |
Tennessee Tech |
-4.6709 |
114 |
91 |
Santa Clara |
-4.7436 |
83 |
92 |
Ohio |
-4.9027 |
109 |
93 |
Iona @ |
-5.0121 |
110 |
94 |
Valparaiso |
-5.1866 |
111 |
95 |
Delaware |
-5.2197 |
97 |
96 |
Dayton |
-5.4076 |
72 |
97 |
Minnesota |
-5.5960 |
73 |
98 |
Austin Peay |
-5.6350 |
107 |
99 |
Central Michigan |
-5.7204 |
118 |
100 |
Vanderbilt |
-5.8833 |
74 |
101 |
Eastern Illinois @ |
-6.1918 |
115 |
102 |
Marshall |
-6.2001 |
105 |
103 |
Hampton @ |
-6.2250 |
132 |
104 |
Arizona St. |
-6.3792 |
90 |
105 |
Baylor |
-6.4190 |
101 |
106 |
UNLV |
-6.4408 |
99 |
107 |
Southern Methodist |
-6.5105 |
98 |
108 |
Siena |
-6.5964 |
117 |
109 |
Monmouth (NJ) @ |
-6.8663 |
133 |
110 |
Cleveland St. |
-6.9360 |
100 |
111 |
Princeton @ |
-7.0110 |
127 |
112 |
South Florida |
-7.0379 |
103 |
113 |
Troy St. |
-7.1786 |
123 |
114 |
Murray St. |
-7.2623 |
128 |
115 |
Marquette |
-7.2720 |
113 |
116 |
North Carolina St. |
-7.3422 |
91 |
117 |
St. Francis (NY) |
-7.5451 |
146 |
118 |
Memphis |
-7.6709 |
95 |
119 |
St. Louis |
-7.7642 |
116 |
120 |
Alabama St. @ |
-7.8136 |
150 |
121 |
Southern Illinois |
-7.8798 |
120 |
122 |
Wright St. |
-8.0623 |
122 |
123 |
Maine |
-8.2126 |
125 |
124 |
Miami (OH) |
-8.2157 |
121 |
125 |
UAB |
-8.2643 |
108 |
126 |
Canisius |
-8.3932 |
135 |
127 |
Rutgers |
-8.7730 |
80 |
128 |
Colorado |
-8.8002 |
106 |
129 |
Ball St. |
-8.9684 |
144 |
130 |
Marist |
-9.0174 |
142 |
131 |
Kansas St. |
-9.0948 |
119 |
132 |
Wisconsin Milwaukee |
-9.2295 |
124 |
133 |
Niagara |
-9.2542 |
151 |
134 |
Rider |
-9.2766 |
138 |
135 |
Oregon |
-9.4487 |
112 |
136 |
South Carolina St. |
-9.4786 |
153 |
137 |
Colorado St. |
-9.4976 |
131 |
138 |
Navy |
-9.5191 |
141 |
139 |
East Tennessee St. |
-9.8583 |
170 |
140 |
Pacific |
-9.9249 |
136 |
141 |
VA Commonwealth |
-10.0930 |
137 |
142 |
Michigan |
-10.2574 |
130 |
143 |
Drexel |
-10.2633 |
143 |
144 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
-10.4752 |
140 |
145 |
Radford |
-10.5422 |
162 |
146 |
Eastern Washington |
-10.5762 |
167 |
147 |
Louisville |
-10.5874 |
129 |
148 |
LSU |
-10.7305 |
104 |
149 |
Boise St. |
-10.7892 |
139 |
150 |
SW Missouri St. |
-10.9542 |
152 |
151 |
Chattanooga |
-11.0074 |
149 |
152 |
Evansville |
-11.2745 |
156 |
153 |
Long Beach St. |
-11.4990 |
160 |
154 |
Louisiana Tech |
-11.7706 |
172 |
155 |
Winthrop @ |
-11.9625 |
188 |
156 |
Northwestern St. @ |
-12.0667 |
169 |
157 |
Arkansas St. |
-12.0968 |
174 |
158 |
Manhattan |
-12.1033 |
173 |
159 |
Rice |
-12.1225 |
155 |
160 |
Northwestern |
-12.1567 |
134 |
161 |
San Diego |
-12.1615 |
157 |
162 |
NC Greensboro @ |
-12.2785 |
177 |
163 |
San Jose St. |
-12.3724 |
145 |
164 |
Youngstown St. |
-12.4327 |
176 |
165 |
Bowling Green |
-12.5789 |
163 |
166 |
George Washington |
-12.5944 |
126 |
167 |
MD Baltimore County |
-12.7597 |
185 |
168 |
New Orleans |
-12.7969 |
187 |
169 |
Washington St. |
-12.9787 |
166 |
170 |
Mississippi Valley St. |
-13.2349 |
197 |
171 |
Samford |
-13.3153 |
181 |
172 |
SE Missouri St. |
-13.3466 |
184 |
173 |
Stetson |
-13.6676 |
200 |
174 |
Sam Houston St. |
-13.6891 |
191 |
175 |
Jacksonville |
-13.7583 |
192 |
176 |
Oregon St. |
-13.8063 |
161 |
177 |
Washington |
-13.8229 |
158 |
178 |
Norfolk St. |
-13.9209 |
205 |
179 |
Wisconsin Green Bay |
-14.0824 |
159 |
180 |
San Diego St. |
-14.1022 |
154 |
181 |
Arkansas Little Rock |
-14.1987 |
183 |
182 |
Brown |
-14.2745 |
194 |
183 |
Boston University |
-14.3132 |
186 |
184 |
Old Dominion |
-14.3448 |
171 |
185 |
Weber St. |
-14.3630 |
180 |
186 |
Alabama A&M |
-14.3779 |
202 |
187 |
Texas San Antonio |
-14.3792 |
199 |
188 |
Illinois Chicago |
-14.4036 |
164 |
189 |
Drake |
-14.4600 |
193 |
190 |
East Carolina |
-14.5028 |
179 |
191 |
La Salle |
-14.6878 |
147 |
192 |
Nicholls St. |
-14.7493 |
207 |
193 |
Akron |
-14.8301 |
190 |
194 |
Fordham |
-14.8783 |
148 |
195 |
Georgia Southern |
-15.0250 |
213 |
196 |
Alcorn St. |
-15.0339 |
215 |
197 |
DePaul |
-15.0479 |
165 |
198 |
Cal Santa Barbara |
-15.2122 |
196 |
199 |
New Mexico St. |
-15.2640 |
203 |
200 |
Idaho St. |
-15.2863 |
195 |
201 |
Wagner |
-15.4139 |
211 |
202 |
Texas A&M |
-15.6126 |
178 |
203 |
Missouri Kansas City |
-15.7659 |
208 |
204 |
Texas Tech |
-15.9654 |
182 |
205 |
Florida St. |
-16.0014 |
175 |
206 |
Mercer |
-16.0044 |
209 |
207 |
Coppin St. |
-16.1701 |
210 |
208 |
The Citadel |
-16.2831 |
223 |
209 |
Oakland |
-16.3643 |
201 |
210 |
Clemson |
-16.4844 |
168 |
211 |
William & Mary |
-16.5991 |
216 |
212 |
Fairfield |
-16.7045 |
218 |
213 |
Delaware St. |
-16.7865 |
227 |
214 |
Pennsylvania |
-16.9680 |
219 |
215 |
James Madison |
-17.0142 |
198 |
216 |
Davidson |
-17.2048 |
225 |
217 |
Fairleigh Dickinson |
-17.3177 |
222 |
218 |
Texas Arlington |
-17.3403 |
237 |
219 |
NC Asheville |
-17.4482 |
235 |
220 |
Long Island |
-17.4581 |
241 |
221 |
Northeastern |
-17.6665 |
214 |
222 |
Harvard |
-17.7102 |
228 |
223 |
Montana St. |
-17.7277 |
221 |
224 |
SW Texas St. |
-17.7328 |
239 |
225 |
Stony Brook |
-17.9090 |
206 |
226 |
Nevada |
-17.9820 |
204 |
227 |
Houston |
-18.0462 |
212 |
228 |
Northern Arizona |
-18.0545 |
243 |
229 |
Central Connecticut |
-18.0703 |
244 |
230 |
Lehigh |
-18.1618 |
240 |
231 |
Morehead St. |
-18.3490 |
230 |
232 |
Virginia Tech |
-18.4933 |
189 |
233 |
North Carolina A&T |
-18.7156 |
246 |
234 |
Bucknell |
-18.7168 |
226 |
235 |
Vermont |
-18.7812 |
220 |
236 |
Wichita St. |
-18.9579 |
217 |
237 |
MD Eastern Shore |
-18.9700 |
247 |
238 |
Wofford |
-19.3200 |
233 |
239 |
Colgate |
-19.3776 |
253 |
240 |
Louisiana Monroe |
-19.3834 |
238 |
241 |
Columbia |
-19.5807 |
256 |
242 |
San Francisco |
-19.6131 |
231 |
243 |
Towson |
-19.9403 |
236 |
244 |
IUPUI |
-19.9418 |
251 |
245 |
Yale |
-20.1560 |
255 |
246 |
Tennessee St. |
-20.2797 |
263 |
247 |
Lafayette |
-20.5315 |
259 |
248 |
Air Force |
-20.7489 |
229 |
249 |
Tennessee Martin |
-20.9167 |
250 |
250 |
Oral Roberts |
-20.9236 |
258 |
251 |
St. Francis (PA) |
-20.9480 |
268 |
252 |
Duquesne |
-21.0582 |
224 |
253 |
Appalachian St. |
-21.0940 |
264 |
254 |
Jacksonville St. |
-21.1450 |
249 |
255 |
Montana |
-21.1836 |
260 |
256 |
Western Michigan |
-21.2814 |
257 |
257 |
Southern |
-21.3008 |
278 |
258 |
Loyola Chicago |
-21.3770 |
242 |
259 |
Tulane |
-21.3793 |
232 |
260 |
Portland |
-21.5279 |
248 |
261 |
Belmont |
-21.7226 |
270 |
262 |
Liberty |
-21.9216 |
280 |
263 |
Northern Iowa |
-21.9377 |
245 |
264 |
Texas A&M Corpus Chris |
-22.1031 |
273 |
265 |
American |
-22.1062 |
254 |
266 |
Howard |
-22.2776 |
274 |
267 |
Portland St. |
-22.3339 |
283 |
268 |
Florida International |
-22.3645 |
252 |
269 |
Furman |
-22.4469 |
269 |
270 |
Denver |
-22.5942 |
265 |
271 |
New Hampshire |
-22.6419 |
262 |
272 |
Florida Atlantic |
-22.6533 |
261 |
273 |
Loyola (MD) |
-22.6650 |
275 |
274 |
Lamar |
-22.7653 |
282 |
275 |
Loyola Marymount |
-22.7835 |
266 |
276 |
Sacred Heart |
-22.8065 |
288 |
277 |
Army |
-22.9423 |
290 |
278 |
Texas Pan American |
-23.0979 |
286 |
279 |
St. Peter's |
-23.2003 |
267 |
280 |
Western Illinois |
-23.2203 |
271 |
281 |
Bethune Cookman |
-23.3453 |
281 |
282 |
Stephen F. Austin |
-23.3623 |
289 |
283 |
Rhode Island |
-23.6202 |
234 |
284 |
Grambling |
-23.6408 |
284 |
285 |
Robert Morris |
-23.7662 |
287 |
286 |
Buffalo |
-24.0538 |
276 |
287 |
Cal Poly-SLO |
-24.1633 |
277 |
288 |
Centenary |
-24.1913 |
295 |
289 |
Charleston Southern |
-24.2459 |
296 |
290 |
Central Florida |
-24.2732 |
272 |
291 |
Coastal Carolina |
-24.3302 |
285 |
292 |
Jackson St. |
-24.3397 |
294 |
293 |
Mount St. Mary's |
-24.3407 |
306 |
294 |
Idaho |
-24.3615 |
279 |
295 |
Northern Illinois |
-24.4040 |
292 |
296 |
Texas Southern |
-24.4747 |
305 |
297 |
SE Louisiana |
-24.6087 |
291 |
298 |
VMI |
-24.6754 |
299 |
299 |
Western Carolina |
-25.0688 |
297 |
300 |
Campbell |
-25.0926 |
298 |
301 |
Cornell |
-25.2242 |
311 |
302 |
Albany (NY) |
-25.2424 |
317 |
303 |
Dartmouth |
-25.3135 |
303 |
304 |
Elon |
-25.4562 |
312 |
305 |
Florida A&M |
-25.5337 |
304 |
306 |
Cal St. Fullerton |
-25.5494 |
293 |
307 |
Morgan St. |
-25.8510 |
307 |
308 |
Eastern Kentucky |
-25.9458 |
301 |
309 |
High Point |
-26.0088 |
316 |
310 |
Prairie View A&M |
-26.0979 |
314 |
311 |
Chicago St. |
-26.3214 |
302 |
312 |
Quinnipiac |
-26.3611 |
313 |
313 |
Middle Tennessee St. |
-26.6255 |
308 |
314 |
Cal St. Sacramento |
-26.9513 |
318 |
315 |
North Texas |
-27.4014 |
300 |
316 |
Arkansas Pine Bluff |
-27.6405 |
319 |
317 |
Eastern Michigan |
-27.7226 |
309 |
318 |
Hartford |
-27.8698 |
310 |
319 |
St. Mary's (CA) |
-28.4486 |
315 |
|