Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams
through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2018 (FINAL),
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by
Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida,
Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and
Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive
at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
The formula has correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).
In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team
with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past
years, if today was Selection Sunday.
The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula,
in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the
Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold
are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.
Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Virginia
48.2185
100.00%
1
2
@Kansas
45.5303
100.00%
4
3
@Villanova
43.8303
100.00%
2
4
North Carolina
37.9410
100.00%
5
5
Xavier
37.4601
100.00%
3
6
@Cincinnati
30.3635
100.00%
6
7
West Virginia
28.3574
100.00%
23
8
Duke
27.0831
100.00%
7
9
Tennessee
25.8678
100.00%
9
10
Purdue
24.9405
100.00%
8
11
@Kentucky
24.6960
100.00%
10
12
Texas Tech
23.6367
100.00%
24
13
@Michigan
21.6118
100.00%
15
14
Wichita St.
20.5287
100.00%
11
15
Houston
19.9342
100.00%
20
16
@Arizona
19.1611
100.00%
14
17
Clemson
17.7770
100.00%
13
18
Florida
17.7309
100.00%
38
19
Michigan St.
17.4998
100.00%
12
20
Auburn
17.4803
100.00%
16
21
Providence
17.0517
100.00%
27
22
Arkansas
16.0114
100.00%
28
23
Alabama
15.5373
100.00%
37
24
@Gonzaga
14.5974
100.00%
21
25
Texas A&M
13.8120
100.00%
25
26
Nevada
13.4229
100.00%
18
27
Seton Hall
13.2908
100.00%
29
28
TCU
12.8166
100.00%
22
29
Ohio St.
12.5943
100.00%
17
30
Miami FL
11.9594
100.00%
26
31
St. Bonaventure
10.7242
100.00%
30
32
Kansas St.
8.2463
100.00%
48
33
North Carolina St.
7.8443
100.00%
49
34
Rhode Island
7.8104
100.00%
19
35
Butler
7.6269
100.00%
39
36
Texas
7.5006
100.00%
45
37
Virginia Tech
7.0688
100.00%
51
38
Missouri
6.9420
100.00%
43
39
Oklahoma
5.2988
100.00%
50
40
@Loyola Chicago
5.2582
100.00%
31
41
USC
4.6918
100.00%
32
42
Marquette
4.6783
100.00%
47
43
Middle Tennessee
4.6558
100.00%
35
44
Saint Mary's
4.4578
100.00%
41
45
UCLA
3.9652
100.00%
40
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
46
Creighton
3.8557
99.99%
44
47
Syracuse
3.3576
99.96%
36
48
Western Kentucky
2.2134
98.66%
42
49
Louisville
1.9796
97.61%
34
50
Arizona St.
1.2222
88.92%
58
51
@Buffalo
0.7714
77.98%
33
52
Baylor
0.5349
70.36%
56
53
Temple
0.3735
64.56%
53
54
Florida St.
0.2703
60.65%
59
55
Oklahoma St.
-0.3165
37.58%
72
56
@New Mexico St.
-1.2968
9.74%
46
57
@Davidson
-1.3376
9.05%
64
58
Washington
-1.3958
8.14%
54
59
@Murray St.
-2.7298
0.32%
52
60
Notre Dame
-2.7605
0.29%
66
61
Oregon
-2.8475
0.22%
62
62
Georgia
-2.8731
0.20%
78
63
LSU
-2.9336
0.17%
79
64
@South Dakota St.
-3.2333
0.06%
55
65
Penn St.
-3.4833
0.02%
68
66
Mississippi St.
-3.8075
0.01%
67
67
@San Diego St.
-3.9949
0.00%
70
68
Utah
-4.0555
0.00%
57
69
Boise St.
-4.1985
0.00%
60
70
Nebraska
-5.5217
0.00%
61
71
Stanford
-5.8070
0.00%
71
72
BYU
-6.1869
0.00%
69
73
Northeastern
-7.5711
0.00%
65
74
Vermont
-7.8348
0.00%
74
75
@UNC Greensboro
-8.1423
0.00%
84
76
Louisiana Lafayette
-8.9380
0.00%
73
77
Belmont
-9.7380
0.00%
88
78
@College of Charleston
-10.2579
0.00%
80
79
Old Dominion
-10.4038
0.00%
82
80
UCF
-11.0093
0.00%
76
81
@Marshall
-11.2867
0.00%
91
82
Toledo
-11.6639
0.00%
81
83
Colorado
-11.9528
0.00%
75
84
South Carolina
-12.1200
0.00%
83
85
East Tennessee St.
-12.6071
0.00%
90
86
Maryland
-13.0383
0.00%
63
87
Rider
-13.0418
0.00%
87
88
Tulsa
-13.6253
0.00%
85
89
Wyoming
-13.8642
0.00%
93
90
Boston College
-14.4238
0.00%
89
91
Memphis
-14.4448
0.00%
92
92
St. John's
-14.8096
0.00%
77
93
@Bucknell
-15.0772
0.00%
97
94
@Montana
-15.9246
0.00%
95
95
Utah Valley
-16.2822
0.00%
96
96
Fresno St.
-16.9478
0.00%
99
97
Illinois St.
-17.0199
0.00%
86
98
South Dakota
-17.5473
0.00%
104
99
Furman
-17.8831
0.00%
100
100
SMU
-17.9458
0.00%
94
101
William & Mary
-18.6505
0.00%
103
102
@Lipscomb
-19.0320
0.00%
119
103
@Wright St.
-19.2500
0.00%
108
104
Wisconsin
-19.3874
0.00%
98
105
Southern Illinois
-19.4979
0.00%
101
106
@Penn
-19.8495
0.00%
113
107
UC Davis
-20.3611
0.00%
115
108
San Francisco
-21.0295
0.00%
120
109
@Stephen F. Austin
-21.1285
0.00%
118
110
VCU
-21.2195
0.00%
111
111
Bradley
-21.2224
0.00%
110
112
New Mexico
-21.7122
0.00%
107
113
Indiana
-22.1260
0.00%
106
114
UNLV
-22.2370
0.00%
116
115
Hofstra
-22.4075
0.00%
123
116
Vanderbilt
-22.9919
0.00%
102
117
@Georgia St.
-23.0369
0.00%
132
118
Northern Kentucky
-23.5986
0.00%
125
119
@UMBC
-23.6865
0.00%
128
120
Wofford
-23.8294
0.00%
134
121
@Iona
-24.5339
0.00%
126
122
Eastern Michigan
-24.7207
0.00%
130
123
UT Arlington
-25.3813
0.00%
124
124
Northern Colorado
-25.4692
0.00%
127
125
Idaho
-25.6639
0.00%
139
126
Wagner
-26.3245
0.00%
133
127
Connecticut
-26.6921
0.00%
105
128
Oregon St.
-27.0785
0.00%
112
129
UC Irvine
-27.3477
0.00%
137
130
Ball St.
-27.3587
0.00%
135
131
Missouri St.
-27.4409
0.00%
131
132
San Diego
-27.5165
0.00%
142
133
Northern Iowa
-27.5211
0.00%
117
134
Mississippi
-27.9292
0.00%
109
135
Saint Louis
-28.0193
0.00%
129
136
UC Santa Barbara
-28.2219
0.00%
149
137
@Cal St. Fullerton
-28.3709
0.00%
141
138
Georgia Tech
-28.3995
0.00%
122
139
Iowa St.
-28.5533
0.00%
114
140
Dayton
-28.5542
0.00%
121
141
Canisius
-28.7146
0.00%
145
142
UNC Asheville
-28.8825
0.00%
143
143
Saint Joseph's
-28.9593
0.00%
151
144
UAB
-30.7749
0.00%
150
145
Albany
-31.5284
0.00%
156
146
Kent St.
-32.0460
0.00%
147
147
Florida Gulf Coast
-32.0589
0.00%
164
148
Harvard
-32.3758
0.00%
154
149
Niagara
-32.4934
0.00%
170
150
Georgetown
-33.2181
0.00%
136
151
Jacksonville St.
-33.2311
0.00%
160
152
Georgia Southern
-33.3190
0.00%
163
153
Eastern Washington
-33.3990
0.00%
158
154
@Radford
-33.7427
0.00%
162
155
Nicholls St.
-34.0864
0.00%
166
156
Weber St.
-34.5101
0.00%
165
157
Grand Canyon
-34.6701
0.00%
155
158
Utah St.
-35.4087
0.00%
152
159
Evansville
-35.6451
0.00%
140
160
Southeastern Louisiana
-35.7970
0.00%
178
161
Portland St.
-37.0760
0.00%
183
162
Northwestern
-37.1931
0.00%
153
163
Seattle
-37.4178
0.00%
168
164
Austin Peay
-37.6597
0.00%
172
165
Western Michigan
-38.0625
0.00%
173
166
Richmond
-38.0834
0.00%
171
167
Miami OH
-38.6550
0.00%
177
168
Mercer
-39.2824
0.00%
181
169
Drake
-39.3624
0.00%
176
170
Tennessee Tech
-39.4503
0.00%
179
171
Towson
-39.5397
0.00%
167
172
Minnesota
-39.6245
0.00%
146
173
Wake Forest
-39.6906
0.00%
144
174
Iowa
-39.9455
0.00%
138
175
Tulane
-40.3809
0.00%
159
176
Oakland
-40.3935
0.00%
188
177
Hartford
-40.5693
0.00%
194
178
Central Michigan
-40.8778
0.00%
169
179
Winthrop
-40.9051
0.00%
190
180
George Mason
-40.9851
0.00%
185
181
Indiana St.
-41.4400
0.00%
182
182
Fairfield
-41.7446
0.00%
180
183
Hawaii
-41.9105
0.00%
186
184
Illinois
-42.0728
0.00%
148
185
UTSA
-42.1180
0.00%
197
186
Pacific
-42.1553
0.00%
189
187
Navy
-42.3599
0.00%
201
188
St. Francis PA
-42.4399
0.00%
196
189
Tennessee St.
-42.8636
0.00%
195
190
Colgate
-43.6310
0.00%
198
191
George Washington
-44.1953
0.00%
174
192
Washington St.
-44.3750
0.00%
157
193
Long Beach St.
-44.6542
0.00%
202
194
Liberty
-44.7421
0.00%
205
195
Rutgers
-44.8756
0.00%
161
196
Robert Morris
-45.1047
0.00%
215
197
Troy
-45.2458
0.00%
199
198
Yale
-45.5095
0.00%
208
199
DePaul
-45.6837
0.00%
175
200
Louisiana Tech
-46.7533
0.00%
184
201
Ohio
-47.4337
0.00%
191
202
Lehigh
-47.5559
0.00%
216
203
La Salle
-47.6677
0.00%
187
204
Bowling Green
-48.2751
0.00%
200
205
Savannah St.
-48.3154
0.00%
211
206
Sam Houston St.
-48.5712
0.00%
212
207
Boston University
-48.7549
0.00%
226
208
Stony Brook
-49.3768
0.00%
214
209
Louisiana Monroe
-49.5065
0.00%
213
210
Monmouth
-49.5651
0.00%
203
211
Southern Miss
-49.8735
0.00%
207
212
Valparaiso
-50.1760
0.00%
193
213
Fort Wayne
-50.6767
0.00%
217
214
Milwaukee
-51.0103
0.00%
230
215
Illinois Chicago
-51.3929
0.00%
231
216
Lamar
-51.4118
0.00%
237
217
Denver
-51.5529
0.00%
221
218
North Dakota St.
-52.9883
0.00%
219
219
Akron
-53.3544
0.00%
206
220
Central Arkansas
-53.4393
0.00%
239
221
Manhattan
-53.4905
0.00%
228
222
UT Rio Grande Valley
-53.5287
0.00%
227
223
Elon
-53.5893
0.00%
209
224
@LIU Brooklyn
-53.7751
0.00%
235
225
Western Carolina
-54.7998
0.00%
224
226
Mount St. Mary's
-54.8862
0.00%
242
227
Princeton
-55.3123
0.00%
233
228
Massachusetts
-55.4529
0.00%
210
229
Cal St. Bakersfield
-55.5975
0.00%
218
230
North Florida
-55.7336
0.00%
240
231
North Texas
-55.9988
0.00%
234
232
Hampton
-56.8447
0.00%
247
233
Duquesne
-56.8765
0.00%
223
234
Drexel
-57.2543
0.00%
232
235
North Dakota
-57.4472
0.00%
222
236
Coastal Carolina
-57.7894
0.00%
241
237
Delaware
-57.8788
0.00%
229
238
Northern Illinois
-58.4634
0.00%
225
239
Appalachian St.
-58.5474
0.00%
251
240
@Texas Southern
-58.6353
0.00%
254
241
Gardner Webb
-58.7744
0.00%
246
242
Texas St.
-58.9596
0.00%
245
243
UNC Wilmington
-59.3754
0.00%
236
244
New Orleans
-59.4027
0.00%
257
245
California
-59.6018
0.00%
204
246
Colorado St.
-60.3886
0.00%
220
247
Grambling St.
-60.4417
0.00%
277
248
Southeast Missouri St.
-60.6320
---
258
249
NJIT
-60.6529
0.00%
256
250
Fairleigh Dickinson
-60.6817
0.00%
262
251
Cornell
-60.7711
0.00%
250
252
Santa Clara
-60.8590
0.00%
253
253
North Carolina A&T
-60.9375
0.00%
263
254
Air Force
-61.6870
0.00%
238
255
Charleston Southern
-61.7928
0.00%
269
256
Pittsburgh
-61.8767
0.00%
192
257
Abilene Christian
-62.1668
0.00%
264
258
Campbell
-62.3844
0.00%
266
259
Prairie View A&M
-62.9839
0.00%
271
260
Saint Peter's
-63.5273
0.00%
249
261
UMKC
-63.6152
0.00%
252
262
Southern Utah
-63.6455
0.00%
243
263
Holy Cross
-63.7016
0.00%
270
264
Norfolk St.
-64.2629
0.00%
276
265
Oral Roberts
-64.3826
0.00%
255
266
Idaho St.
-64.8336
0.00%
275
267
Loyola Marymount
-65.0715
0.00%
248
268
High Point
-65.4252
0.00%
272
269
Eastern Illinois
-65.9462
0.00%
267
270
South Alabama
-66.7648
0.00%
259
271
East Carolina
-67.2073
0.00%
244
272
St. Francis NY
-67.4125
0.00%
283
273
James Madison
-68.5936
0.00%
265
274
FIU
-68.8688
0.00%
279
275
Jacksonville
-69.2031
0.00%
290
276
Central Connecticut
-69.2507
0.00%
282
277
Quinnipiac
-69.9799
0.00%
286
278
UTEP
-70.0405
0.00%
268
279
UMass Lowell
-70.2660
0.00%
278
280
Bethune Cookman
-70.4100
0.00%
308
281
Cleveland St.
-70.8864
0.00%
281
282
@North Carolina Central
-71.5053
0.00%
299
283
Florida Atlantic
-71.7511
0.00%
280
284
Nebraska Omaha
-71.9990
0.00%
273
285
Fordham
-72.2354
0.00%
261
286
South Florida
-72.2736
0.00%
260
287
Eastern Kentucky
-72.9213
0.00%
284
288
IUPUI
-73.1295
0.00%
293
289
Montana St.
-74.7328
0.00%
289
290
Portland
-74.8813
0.00%
274
291
Kennesaw St.
-74.9201
0.00%
300
292
The Citadel
-75.3035
0.00%
288
293
Brown
-75.4411
0.00%
295
294
McNeese St.
-75.5484
0.00%
311
295
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-75.6060
0.00%
323
296
Army
-75.8439
0.00%
296
297
Green Bay
-76.0024
0.00%
301
298
Samford
-76.1797
0.00%
292
299
SIU Edwardsville
-76.3058
0.00%
294
300
Arkansas St.
-76.3555
0.00%
298
301
Southern
-76.7092
0.00%
322
302
Lafayette
-77.5372
0.00%
307
303
Morehead St.
-78.0597
0.00%
287
304
New Hampshire
-78.1079
0.00%
306
305
Western Illinois
-78.2564
0.00%
291
306
Siena
-78.3746
0.00%
285
307
Columbia
-78.9841
0.00%
310
308
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-80.4677
0.00%
327
309
UC Riverside
-80.4786
0.00%
305
310
Morgan St.
-80.7732
0.00%
332
311
Cal Poly
-81.0702
0.00%
302
312
Tennessee Martin
-81.3627
0.00%
317
313
Loyola MD
-81.6603
0.00%
314
314
Jackson St.
-81.7085
0.00%
333
315
Chattanooga
-82.2707
0.00%
297
316
Alabama St.
-83.0257
0.00%
337
317
Florida A&M
-83.0466
0.00%
335
318
Sacramento St.
-83.2348
0.00%
304
319
Stetson
-83.3500
0.00%
328
320
Little Rock
-83.8343
0.00%
309
321
Sacred Heart
-84.0886
0.00%
325
322
VMI
-84.1780
0.00%
313
323
South Carolina St.
-84.2471
0.00%
330
324
Youngstown St.
-84.8769
0.00%
326
325
Howard
-84.8963
0.00%
339
326
Detroit
-85.3691
0.00%
315
327
Presbyterian
-85.6249
0.00%
316
328
Marist
-86.1365
0.00%
318
329
Pepperdine
-86.1380
0.00%
303
330
Binghamton
-86.5393
0.00%
319
331
Rice
-86.8448
0.00%
324
332
Dartmouth
-87.1503
0.00%
329
333
Alcorn St.
-88.8515
0.00%
348
334
Northern Arizona
-89.2746
0.00%
320
335
Charlotte
-89.3834
0.00%
321
336
Coppin St.
-89.3934
0.00%
341
337
San Jose St.
-90.2402
0.00%
312
338
Cal St. Northridge
-90.9376
0.00%
340
339
Maine
-91.2525
0.00%
338
340
Longwood
-91.5674
0.00%
336
341
American
-91.8823
0.00%
334
342
Chicago St.
-92.4739
0.00%
331
343
Maryland Eastern Shore
-93.6347
0.00%
342
344
USC Upstate
-94.1463
0.00%
344
345
Mississippi Valley St.
-94.7458
0.00%
349
346
Bryant
-95.0110
0.00%
343
347
Alabama A&M
-96.0839
0.00%
351
348
Incarnate Word
-96.2021
0.00%
345
349
Houston Baptist
-96.4579
0.00%
346
350
Delaware St.
-97.3341
0.00%
350
351
Northwestern St.
-97.6872
0.00%
347
This page last updated on Sunday, March 11, 2018 at 5:41 p.m.
