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College Football Playoff "FourCast"    

   

Below is the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking for this week, covering all Football Bowl Subdivision games through October 27, 2018, according to the "FourCast" formula currently under development by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida. For weeks early in the season in which the CFP selection committee does not announce a ranking, the one shown is a projection of what their ranking would be this week if they did.

The predictions below are based on strongly consistent patterns found in the CFP Selection Committee's weekly rankings during the 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons. If the current CFP selection commit follows these same patterns during 2018, the ranking shown below should closely match the actual CFP ranking. Obviously, there is no guarantee that the current committee will follow a similar protocol.

While the selection committee announces only a top 25, an advantage of the formula is that it can also project the teams that would be ranked from 26 through 130 if the same patterns found in the top 25 were followed. This allows teams to evaluate how close they might have been to being ranked by the committee.

Given that some of the inputs used in the predictive formula may become available just before or even after the committee's announcement of its weekly ranking, the ranking reported below may reflect alternate versions of the model very early in the week, and may be updated as additional information becomes available.

The ranking can be sorted alphabetically by clicking on the first column header.

Team
CFP FourCast
Air Force
103
Akron
90
Alabama
2
Alabama-Birmingham
47
Appalachian St
57
Arizona
60
Arizona St
50
Arkansas
101
Arkansas St
102
Army
35
Auburn
43
Ball St
121
Baylor
70
Boise St
55
Boston College
25
Bowling Green
128
Brigham Young
74
Buffalo
46
California
63
Central Florida
14
Central Michigan
120
Cincinnati
53
Clemson
1
Coastal Carolina
80
Colorado
65
Colorado St
111
Connecticut
114
Duke
38
East Carolina
94
Eastern Michigan
83
Florida
11
Florida Atlantic
96
Florida Int'l
75
Florida St
58
Fresno St
24
Georgia
5
Georgia Southern
49
Georgia St
116
Georgia Tech
66
Hawai`i
92
Houston
19
Illinois
97
Indiana
45
Iowa
17
Iowa St
28
Kansas
84
Kansas St
69
Kent St
130
Kentucky
10
LSU
3
Liberty
85
Louisiana Tech
61
Louisiana-Lafayette
93
Louisiana-Monroe
105
Louisville
104
Marshall
82
Maryland
33
Massachusetts
109
Memphis
98
Miami FL
36
Miami OH
95
Michigan
6
Michigan St
29
Middle Tennessee St
73
Minnesota
51
Mississippi
56
Mississippi St
18
Missouri
54
Navy
112
Nebraska
87
Nevada
78
New Mexico
113
New Mexico St
125
North Carolina
91
North Carolina St
22
North Texas
71
Northern Illinois
79
Northwestern
44
Notre Dame
4
Ohio State
8
Ohio U.
86
Oklahoma
7
Oklahoma St
34
Old Dominion
122
Oregon
52
Oregon St
88
Penn State
13
Pittsburgh
42
Purdue
32
Rice
126
Rutgers
108
SMU
99
San Diego St
59
San Josť St
115
South Alabama
118
South Carolina
37
South Florida
76
Southern Cal
39
Southern Miss
110
Stanford
30
Syracuse
20
TCU
62
Temple
41
Tennessee
67
Texas
16
Texas A&M
26
Texas St-San Marcos
123
Texas Tech
31
Texas-San Antonio
119
Toledo
81
Troy
72
Tulane
106
Tulsa
117
UCLA
64
UNC-Charlotte
107
UNLV
127
UTEP
129
Utah
15
Utah St
27
Vanderbilt
48
Virginia
23
Virginia Tech
68
Wake Forest
77
Washington
21
Washington St
9
West Virginia
12
Western Kentucky
124
Western Michigan
89
Wisconsin
40
Wyoming
100


This page last updated on October 30, 2018 at 12:49 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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