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College Football Playoff "FourCast"    

   

Below is the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking for this week, covering all Football Bowl Subdivision games through December 5, 2015 (i.e., all games prior to the committee's final announcement), according to the "FourCast" formula currently under development by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida. For weeks early in the season in which the CFP selection committee does not announce a ranking, the one shown is a projection of what their ranking would be this week if they did.

The predictions below are based on strongly consistent patterns found in the CFP Selection Committee's weekly rankings during the 2014 season. If the current CFP selection committee follows these same patterns during 2015, the ranking shown below should closely match the actual CFP ranking. Obviously, there is no guarantee that the current committee will follow a similar protocol.

While the selection committee announces only a top 25, an advantage of the formula is that it can also project the teams that would be ranked from 26 through 128 if the same patterns found in the top 25 were followed. This allows teams to evaluate how close they might have been to being ranked by the committee.

Given that some of the inputs used in the predictive formula may become available just before or even after the committee's announcement of its weekly ranking, the ranking reported below may reflect alternate versions of the model very early in the week, and may be updated as additional information becomes available.

The ranking can be sorted alphabetically by clicking on the first column header.

Team
CFP FourCast
Alabama
1
Clemson
2
Michigan St
3
Stanford
4
Oklahoma
5
Iowa
6
Ohio State
7
Notre Dame
8
Florida St
9
North Carolina
10
Northwestern
11
TCU
12
Oregon
13
Oklahoma St
14
Houston
15
Mississippi
16
Michigan
17
Florida
18
Baylor
19
Navy
20
Utah
21
LSU
22
Southern Cal
23
Wisconsin
24
Temple
25
Memphis
26
Tennessee
27
Washington St
28
Mississippi St
29
UCLA
30
Brigham Young
31
Western Kentucky
32
Bowling Green
33
Arkansas
34
California
35
Georgia
36
Texas A&M
37
San Diego St
38
Toledo
39
Appalachian St
40
Miami FL
41
Pittsburgh
42
Arizona St
43
South Florida
44
Arkansas St
45
Penn State
46
Louisville
47
Auburn
48
Texas Tech
49
Western Michigan
50
West Virginia
51
Washington
52
Cincinnati
53
Marshall
54
Louisiana Tech
55
Ohio U.
56
North Carolina St
57
Central Michigan
58
Air Force
59
Indiana
60
Southern Miss
61
Georgia Southern
62
Boise St
63
Minnesota
64
Arizona
65
Kansas St
66
Nebraska
67
Northern Illinois
68
Illinois
69
Duke
70
Utah St
71
Texas
72
Virginia Tech
73
Middle Tennessee St
74
Missouri
75
Connecticut
76
Akron
77
Maryland
78
Tulsa
79
East Carolina
80
New Mexico
81
Vanderbilt
82
Georgia St
83
Georgia Tech
84
Virginia
85
Colorado St
86
Iowa St
87
Syracuse
88
Kentucky
89
South Carolina
90
South Alabama
91
Rutgers
92
Colorado
93
Nevada
94
San Josť St
95
Purdue
96
Oregon St
97
Buffalo
98
SMU
99
Troy
100
Wake Forest
101
Boston College
102
Old Dominion
103
Florida Int'l
104
Ball St
105
Idaho
106
Rice
107
Fresno St
108
Texas St-San Marcos
109
Louisiana-Lafayette
110
UTEP
111
Kent St
112
Florida Atlantic
113
Tulane
114
Wyoming
115
Kansas
116
UNLV
117
Miami OH
118
Massachusetts
119
New Mexico St
120
North Texas
121
Texas-San Antonio
122
Hawai`i
123
Army
124
Central Florida
125
Louisiana-Monroe
126
UNC-Charlotte
127
Eastern Michigan
128


This page last updated on December 7, 2015 at 3:20 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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