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College Football Playoff "FourCast"    

   

Below is the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking for this week, covering all Football Bowl Subdivision games through October 27, 2018, according to the "FourCast" formula currently under development by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida. For weeks early in the season in which the CFP selection committee does not announce a ranking, the one shown is a projection of what their ranking would be this week if they did.

The predictions below are based on strongly consistent patterns found in the CFP Selection Committee's weekly rankings during the 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017 seasons. If the current CFP selection commit follows these same patterns during 2018, the ranking shown below should closely match the actual CFP ranking. Obviously, there is no guarantee that the current committee will follow a similar protocol.

While the selection committee announces only a top 25, an advantage of the formula is that it can also project the teams that would be ranked from 26 through 130 if the same patterns found in the top 25 were followed. This allows teams to evaluate how close they might have been to being ranked by the committee.

Given that some of the inputs used in the predictive formula may become available just before or even after the committee's announcement of its weekly ranking, the ranking reported below may reflect alternate versions of the model very early in the week, and may be updated as additional information becomes available.

The ranking can be sorted alphabetically by clicking on the first column header.

Team
CFP FourCast
Clemson
1
Alabama
2
LSU
3
Notre Dame
4
Georgia
5
Michigan
6
Oklahoma
7
Ohio State
8
Washington St
9
Kentucky
10
Florida
11
West Virginia
12
Penn State
13
Central Florida
14
Utah
15
Texas
16
Iowa
17
Mississippi St
18
Houston
19
Syracuse
20
Washington
21
North Carolina St
22
Virginia
23
Fresno St
24
Boston College
25
Texas A&M
26
Utah St
27
Iowa St
28
Michigan St
29
Stanford
30
Texas Tech
31
Purdue
32
Maryland
33
Oklahoma St
34
Army
35
Miami FL
36
South Carolina
37
Duke
38
Southern Cal
39
Wisconsin
40
Temple
41
Pittsburgh
42
Auburn
43
Northwestern
44
Indiana
45
Buffalo
46
Alabama-Birmingham
47
Vanderbilt
48
Georgia Southern
49
Arizona St
50
Minnesota
51
Oregon
52
Cincinnati
53
Missouri
54
Boise St
55
Mississippi
56
Appalachian St
57
Florida St
58
San Diego St
59
Arizona
60
Louisiana Tech
61
TCU
62
California
63
UCLA
64
Colorado
65
Georgia Tech
66
Tennessee
67
Virginia Tech
68
Kansas St
69
Baylor
70
North Texas
71
Troy
72
Middle Tennessee St
73
Brigham Young
74
Florida Int'l
75
South Florida
76
Wake Forest
77
Nevada
78
Northern Illinois
79
Coastal Carolina
80
Toledo
81
Marshall
82
Eastern Michigan
83
Kansas
84
Liberty
85
Ohio U.
86
Nebraska
87
Oregon St
88
Western Michigan
89
Akron
90
North Carolina
91
Hawai`i
92
Louisiana-Lafayette
93
East Carolina
94
Miami OH
95
Florida Atlantic
96
Illinois
97
Memphis
98
SMU
99
Wyoming
100
Arkansas
101
Arkansas St
102
Air Force
103
Louisville
104
Louisiana-Monroe
105
Tulane
106
UNC-Charlotte
107
Rutgers
108
Massachusetts
109
Southern Miss
110
Colorado St
111
Navy
112
New Mexico
113
Connecticut
114
San Josť St
115
Georgia St
116
Tulsa
117
South Alabama
118
Texas-San Antonio
119
Central Michigan
120
Ball St
121
Old Dominion
122
Texas St-San Marcos
123
Western Kentucky
124
New Mexico St
125
Rice
126
UNLV
127
Bowling Green
128
UTEP
129
Kent St
130


This page last updated on October 30, 2018 at 12:49 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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