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Press Release for Tuesday, October 22, 2019

New UNF Poll Reveals Florida Torn Over Trump Impeachment Inquiry

Media Contact: Amanda Ennis

Public Relations Acting Director

(904) 620-2192

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 


New UNF Poll Reveals Florida Torn Over Trump Impeachment Inquiry

Majority Disapprove of Trump's Job Performance

 

The Public Opinion Research Lab (PORL) at the University of North Florida completed a new poll of Florida registered voters that shows split approval and disapproval regarding the formal impeachment inquiry into President Trump. The survey also shows a majority disapprove of Donald Trump's presidential performance.

 

The poll, comprised of registered voters in the state of Florida, shows 48% approval of the House of Representatives formally beginning an impeachment inquiry, while 47% disapprove. The strongest support comes from registered Democrats at 82% approval with only 13% approval among registered Republicans. Overall, 5% of respondents don't know. When a separate question was asked about Donald Trump being impeached and removed from office, 46% indicated support and 48% oppose, with 6% not knowing. Support was higher among Democrats at 83%, with 8% of Republicans supporting. Regarding Donald Trump's job approval, 44% approve of how he is handling his job as President of the U.S., while 53% disapprove. Job approval is highest among Republicans at 82%, with 13% of Democrats approving. Overall, only 3% didn't know.

 

"Floridians are evenly split on impeachment, both on beginning the inquiry and removing Trump from office," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF. "It's possible that both Republican Senators will end up sitting in judgement during an impeachment trial. An even split among the public likely would not convince co-partisan senators to break with the president. This similarity speaks to the division within the electorate regarding Trump: either they support removing him from office, or they are opposed to the impeachment inquiry entirely."

 

Additionally, the PORL asked several questions about potential vote choice if the general election was held today between Donald Trump and some of the leading candidates in the Democratic primary. When Donald Trump is paired against Joe Biden, 43% of respondents indicated they would vote for Trump and 48% indicated a vote for Biden. When paired against Elizabeth Warren, Trump had 43% while Warren had 46%. Against Kamala Harris, 44% indicated a vote for Trump and 41% a vote for Harris. Lastly, Trump had 43% of the vote when paired against Pete Buttigieg, who had 42%.

 

"The head to head horserace questions for the 2020 election appear to reinforce two popular narratives," Binder said. "First, this is going to be an extremely close race, as each potential matchup is within the margin of error. Second, Biden appears to have the best chance of beating Trump in Florida with a five-point lead. However, one of the contributors to the difference between the other candidates and Trump is the increased level of "don't know" responses among Democrats when Warren, Harris and Buttigieg are on the ballot. I would expect those Democrats to come home come November, much like Republicans did in 2016 with Trump."

 

Vice President Mike Pence was also paired against the top two candidates in the Democratic primary. When paired against Joe Biden, 38% indicated a vote for Pence, while 49% indicated a vote for Biden. Similarly, 40% indicated a vote for Pence, with 46% for Elizabeth Warren.

 

"If the impeachment process somehow gets to the point where Trump is removed from office, Biden and Warren fare much better against Pence in the hypothetical matchups," Binder noted.

 

In terms of the most important problem facing the U.S. today, healthcare and immigration topped the list with 18%, followed by the economy and education with 12% and 11%, respectively. Immigration leads the way for Republican voters with 29%, while Democrats believe health care is the most important problem at 22%.

 

"Healthcare and immigration are the two biggest issues among Floridians heading into 2020," Binder said. "Even though Democrats and Republicans differ on which is more important, expect these two issues to dominate the campaign."

 

When considering a presidential candidate, 62% of respondents said it is very important that a candidate's views on social issues align with their own, and 66% said it is very important that a candidate's views on economic issues align with their own.

 

For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, age, race, sex and education, visit the PORL Recent Polls website.

 

Survey Results

Do you approve or disapprove of the House of Representatives formally starting an impeachment inquiry into President Trump?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=660
Strongly Approve 37%
Somewhat Approve 12%
Somewhat Disapprove 9%
Strongly Disapprove 38%
Don't Know 5%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Voters n=243 Republican Voters n=234 NPA Voters n=184
Strongly Approve 65% 6% 38%
Somewhat Approve 17% 7% 10%
Somewhat Disapprove 3% 13% 12%
Strongly Disapprove 10% 72% 31%
Don't Know 5% 2% 8%

 

Do you support or oppose President Trump being impeached and removed from office?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=650
Strongly Support 37%
Somewhat Support 9%
Somewhat Oppose 6%
Strongly Oppose 42%
Don't Know 6%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Voters n=238 Republican Voters n=232 NPA Voters n=180
Strongly Support 69% 6% 37%
Somewhat Support 15% 3% 9%
Somewhat Oppose 4% 5% 10%
Strongly Oppose 8% 84% 32%
Don't Know 5% 3% 11%

 

Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as President of the United States?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=655
Strongly Approve 29%
Somewhat Approve 16%
Somewhat Disapprove 11%
Strongly Disapprove 42%
Don't Know 3%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Voters n=243 Republican Voters n=232 NPA Voters n=180
Strongly Approve 4% 63% 19%
Somewhat Approve 10% 19% 18%
Somewhat Disapprove 10% 9% 17%
Strongly Disapprove 76% 8% 38%
Don't Know 1% 1% 7%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=644
Donald Trump 43%
Joe Biden 48%
Wouldn't vote 6%
Don't Know 3%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=644
Donald Trump 43%
Elizabeth Warren 46%
Wouldn't vote 6%
Don't Know 6%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=646
Donald Trump 44%
Kamala Harris 41%
Wouldn't vote 8%
Don't Know 7%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=644
Donald Trump 43%
Pete Buttigieg 42%
Wouldn't vote 7%
Don't Know 9%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Mike Pence and Joe Biden, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=642
Mike Pence 38%
Joe Biden 49%
Wouldn't vote 8%
Don't Know 5%

 

If the general election were held today and the candidates were Mike Pence and Elizabeth Warren, who would you vote for?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=643
Mike Pence 40%
Elizabeth Warren 46%
Wouldn't vote 8%
Don't Know 6%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Voters n=246 Republican Voters n=232 NPA Voters n=186
Economy/Jobs/Unemployment 8% 18% 9%
Education 9% 12% 12%
Environment 13% 2% 10%
Foreign Policy 8% 5% 5%
Gun Policy 14% 3% 11%
Healthcare 22% 15% 16%
Immigration 9% 29% 17%
Terrorism 3% 3% 3%
Donald Trump 6% - 1%
Something Else 7% 12% 11%
Don't Know 3% 2% 5%

 

When considering a presidential candidate, how important is it that their views align with yours on social issues?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=662
Very important 62%
Somewhat important 31%
Not important at all 6%
Don't Know 2%

 

When considering a presidential candidate, how important is it that their views align with yours on economic issues?
Answer Options Florida Voters n=666
Very important 66%
Somewhat important 31%
Not important at all 2%
Don't Know 2%

 

Survey Demographics

By Party
Party Registration Florida Voters n=669
Republican 37%
Democrat 35%
NPA and other 28%

 

By Age
Age Florida Voters n=669
18 to 24 10%
25 to 34 16%
35 to 44 15%
45 to 55 16%
56 to 64 18%
65 and older 27%

 

By Race
Race Florida Voters n=669
White (not Hispanic) 63%
Black (not Hispanic) 13%
Hispanic 17%
Other 7%

 

By Sex
Sex Florida Voters n=669
Male 46%
Female 54%

 

Phone Type
Telephone Florida Voters n=660
Landline 23%
Cell phone 77%
Refusal <1%

 

What is the highest grade in school or year of college you have completed?
Education Florida Voters n=660
Less than high school 4%
High school graduate 21%
Some college 45%
College graduate 19%
Post graduate degree 11%
Refusal <1%

 

What language was this survey completed in?
Survey language completed in? Florida Voters n=668
English 96%
Spanish 4%

 

Methodology

The UNF Florida statewide poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida, from Monday, Oct. 14, 2019, through Sunday, Oct. 20, 2019, by live callers via the telephone from 5 to 9 p.m. during the week and noon to 9 p.m. on the weekends with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. UNF undergraduate students and employees conducted interviews in English and Spanish. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File. The sample frame was comprised of registered Florida voters. Overall, there were 669 completed surveys of Florida registered voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.8 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 23% to 77%, with less than 1% unidentified. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, age, race, sex and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex, race and age weights were created from the Tuesday, Sept. 10, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File to match the active registered voters in Florida. These demographic characteristics were pulled from the voter file list.

 

All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 25 rake weighting function, which will not assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. In this case, respondents missing a response for education were given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 27.5% response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

UNF is a nationally ranked university in Jacksonville, Florida, that is nestled on a beautiful 1,300-acre nature preserve, featuring six colleges of distinction as well as nationally recognized flagship programs, with 56 bachelor degree programs and over 75 areas of concentration.

 

-UNF-