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Press Release for Thursday, October 27, 2016

Poll Shows Clinton, Rubio and Amendment 2 hold leads in Florida

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784


Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest-with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton holds the lead.

 

She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today.

 

"There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 - 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably" said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida."

 

In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. "Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy," said Dr. Binder.

 

The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote "yes" on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.

 

"This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2," Dr. Binder noted.

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

 

The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for…?
Candidate Florida Likely Voters n= 786
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 46%
Donald Trump, the Republican 44%
Someone else (VOL) 3%
Don't Know (VOL) 6%

 

Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Candidate Florida Likely Voters n= 819
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 43%
Donald Trump, the Republican 39%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2%
Someone else (VOL) <1%
Don't Know (VOL) 9%

 

Q6. If the 2016 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Candidate Likely Florida Voters n= 797
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 43%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 49%
Someone else <1%
Don't Know 7%

 

Q7. As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, "Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non‐medical use, possession or production of marijuana." Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?
Answer Options Likely Florida Voters n= 803
Yes 73%
No 22%
Don't Know 5%

 

Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
Answer Options Florida Likely Voters n= 836
Jobs and Economy 28%
Education 9%
Healthcare 9%
Immigration 6%
Environment 6%
Social Security 5%
Foreign Policy 5%
Terrorism 13%
Race Relations 1%
Everything 5%
Something Else 11%
Don't Know 3%

 

Breakdown by Race
Race Florida Likely Voters n= 836
White (not Hispanic) 68%
Black (not Hispanic) 13%
Hispanic 14%
Other 5%

 

Breakdown by Gender
Gender Florida Likely Voters n= 836
Men 45%
Women 55%

 

Breakdown of Party
Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n= 836
Republican 40%
Democrat 40%
NPA and other 20%

 

Breakdown by Age
Age Florida Likely Voters n= 836
18-24 8%
25-34 12%
35-44 10%
45-55 17%
56-64 19%
65 and older 33%

 

Breakdown of Phone Type
Telephone Florida Likely Voters n= 799
Landline 32%
Cell phone 68%

Crosstabs

Presidential Vote Choice and Gender
Candidate Men Women
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 38% 47%
Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 34%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6% 6%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 2%
Someone else (VOL) 1% <1%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Education
Candidate College Degree No College Degree
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 44% 42%
Donald Trump, the Republican 37% 42%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 7% 5%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 2%
Someone else (VOL) 1% <1%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 8%

Florida Likely Voters n= 781

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Party Registration
Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 77% 13% 35%
Donald Trump, the Republican 9% 71% 38%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 4% 6% 11%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% 1% 4%
Someone else (VOL) <1% <1% 1%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9% 10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Race
Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 35% 81% 48% 34%
Donald Trump, the Republican 48% 5% 29% 39%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 7% 1% 6% 10%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 2% - 3% 6%
Someone else (VOL) 1% - 1% -
Don't Know (VOL) 7% 14% 13% 11%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Presidential Vote Choice and Age
Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 48% 48% 50% 39% 35% 44%
Donald Trump, the Republican 21% 22% 26% 49% 49% 44%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 13% 13% 10% 4% 5% 3%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 6% 2% 7% 1% 3% <1%
Someone else (VOL) 2% 2% - - - <1%
Don't Know (VOL) 11% 12% 7% 8% 9% 9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 819

 

Senate Vote Choice and Gender
Candidate Men Women
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 38% 46%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 55% 44%
Someone else 2% 1%
Don't Know 5% 8%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Education
Candidate College Degree No College Degree
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 44% 42%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 49% 49%
Someone else 1% 2%
Don't Know 6% 7%

Florida Likely Voters n= 764

 

Senate Vote Choice and Party Registration
Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 75% 10% 44%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 17% 83% 47%
Someone else 1% 1% 3%
Don't Know 7% 7% 6%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Race
Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 35% 76% 52% 28%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 57% 14% 41% 61%
Someone else 2% 1% 1% -
Don't Know 6% 9% 6% 10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Senate Vote Choice and Age
Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
Patrick Murphy, the Democrat 47% 44% 53% 39% 42% 40%
Marco Rubio, the Republican 38% 42% 40% 54% 53% 53%
Someone else 1% 1% 1% - 2% 2%
Don't Know 14% 12% 6% 6% 3% 5%

Florida Likely Voters n= 797

 

Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration
Answer Options Democrat Republican NPA and others
Yes 81% 63% 76%
No 14% 31% 20%
Don't Know 5% 6% 4%

Florida Likely Voters n= 803

 

Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age
Answer Options 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
Yes 84% 82% 76% 75% 75% 62%
No 7% 13% 18% 20% 21% 32%
Don't Know 9% 5% 6% 5% 4% 6%

Florida Likely Voters n= 803