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Press Release for Wednesday, July 6, 2016

John Rutherford With Comfortable Lead in New Florida Congressional District 4 Poll

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192


Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely Republican voters in Congressional District 4 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that former Jacksonville Sherriff John Rutherford leads the race with 27 percent, Hans Tanzler is in second place with 13 percent, and State Rep. Lake Ray carries third place with nine percent. Rounding out the rest of this crowded contest are St. Johns County Commissioner Bill McClure with two percent, Deborah Katz Pueschel with two percent, Ed Malin and Stephen Kaufman with less than one percent each.


"Rutherford leads early in this race, but considering the vast amount of indecision among likely voters, Tanzler and Ray could still be contenders," said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director. "Although Rutherford is the front-runner, I expected the size of his lead to be much larger."


Congressional District 4 is made up of portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau Counties. "Breaking down the results by county reflects relatively consistent support for Rutherford and Tanzler, while Lake Ray's support dwindles outside of Duval County. Furthermore, the percent of likely Republican voters unsure for whom they will vote is substantially larger in St. Johns and Nassau Counties in comparison to Duval," said Binder.


Respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the Republican Primary election for the US House of Representatives were being held today
Candidates Likely Republican Voters
Stephen Kaufman <1%
Ed Malin <1%
Bill McClure 2%
Deborah Katz Pueschel 2%
Lake Ray 9%
John Rutherford 27%
Hans Tanzler 13%
Don't Know 46%

Column totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. n=403

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau Counties


Vote Choice by County
Candidates Likely Republican Voters Duval Likely Republican Voters St. Johns Likely Republican Voters Nassau
Stephen Kaufman <1% - -
Ed Malin <1% - -
Bill McClure 2% 2% 1%
Deborah Katz Pueschel 2% 2% -
Lake Ray 14% 1% 7%
John Rutherford 30% 22% 25%
Hans Tanzler 15% 10% 14%
Don't Know 36% 63% 52%

Column totals may not equal 100 due to rounding. n=403

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau Counties.




The Florida Congressional District 4 Poll was conducted, Tuesday June 28, through Wednesday June 29, by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by each county's board of elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 403 registered Republican likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in either four out of the last five statewide elections (presidential preference primary in 2016, statewide primary elections in 2012 and 2014 and general elections in 2012 and 2014). Voters who voted in at least the 2014 statewide primary election and newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would "Definitely Vote" or "Probably Vote" in August's primary election


The margin of error is +/- 4.9 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 45 to 54 percent with 1 percent unknown. The sample had quota for and geography and was weighted to race and gender statistics for the likely voter profile of the district. This survey was sponsored by the PORL at the University of North Florida and is directed by Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001, and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at or at (904) 620-2784. PDF version; website:


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