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Press Release for Wednesday, October 10, 2012

University of North Florida Poll Reveals Slight Lead for Obama in Florida

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Associate Director 

Department of Public Relations  

(904) 620-2102  



A new University of North Florida poll reveals President Barack Obama has a four-percentage point lead over Mitt Romney (49 percent to 45 percent). The key to the Obama lead is support from African-American voters (96 percent to 3 percent) and Hispanic voters (59 percent to 33 percent). Also of interest, 37 percent of likely voters “haven’t heard enough about” Paul Ryan, Republican vice presidential candidate, to have an opinion of him, which highlights the importance of his performance in the vice presidential debate Thursday, Oct. 11.  


The survey was conducted through the use of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing at a 27-station polling laboratory at UNF. A sample of the polling universe was selected through the use of Random-Digit-Dialing methodology. An additional cell phone sample is used to increase representation. To ensure geographic diversity the state was pre-weighted into seven strata.  The survey was conducted in Spanish for those respondents who wished to complete the survey in Spanish. Gender, age and education are weighted to statistics from the census for the state of Florida.   


The survey was conducted between Oct. 1 and Oct. 9 and includes 790 residents of the state of Florida. Margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.49 percent. Approximately 180 UNF political science students participated in the data collection.  


 Among the statewide findings:  


          -- President Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney among likely voters 49 percent to 45 percent. Obama is heavily supported by African-Americans (96 percent to 3 percent) and Hispanics (59 percent to 33 percent).   


          --Obama has a 52 percent job-approval rating among likely voters in Florida.  


          --Thirty-five percent of likely Florida voters have a favorable opinion of Ryan, but 37 percent “haven’t heard enough about him” to form an opinion.  


          --When asked which presidential candidate they trust more when it comes to strengthening Medicare, 51 percent of likely Florida voters chose Obama and 37 percent chose Romney.  


          ----When asked which presidential candidate they trust more when it comes to strengthening Florida’s economy, 44 percent of likely Florida voters chose Romney and 44 percent chose Obama.  


For further information or questions about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder, UNF assistant professor of political science, at (904) 620-1205 or