October 27, 2016
Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director
Department of Public Relations
(904) 620-2102
Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder
Public Opinion Research Lab Director
(904) 620-2784
Poll Shows Clinton, Rubio and Amendment 2 hold leads in Florida
Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that in a four-candidate contest-with Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton holds the lead.
She leads with 43 percent, followed by Trump with 39 percent and Johnson trailing at 6 percent and Stein finishing fourth with just 3 percent. Another 9 percent is still undecided. When asked about just two candidates, 46 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump, 44 percent, if the election were held today.
"There is almost no change from our poll in early October in which Clinton led Trump by three percentage points, 41 - 38, in the four-way contest, but the head-to-head results have tightened considerably" said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory. "This poll has an even distribution of Democrats and Republicans, however in this election Democrats are outperforming their historical norms in absentee and early voting. If this trend continues through Election Day, Clinton could expand this margin and easily win Florida."
In the Florida Senate race, Marco Rubio leads Patrick Murphy, 49 percent to 43 percent. "Rubio is maintaining his six percentage point lead from our poll earlier in the month. Rubio can attribute his lead to support from NPAs and more Democrats willing to cast a ballot for him than Republicans are for Murphy," said Dr. Binder.
The majority of Florida likely voters, 73 percent, will vote "yes" on Amendment 2, which allows for the medical use of marijuana.
"This is down four percentage points from our last poll, but still well above the 60 percent threshold needed for passage. Interestingly, and just like in our last poll, all age groups and parties support Amendment 2," Dr. Binder noted.
Methodology
The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday, October 20, through Tuesday, October 25, 2016, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 836 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.
Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.
The margin of error is +/- 3.39 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.
The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.
Survey Results
Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for…?
| Candidate |
Florida Likely Voters n= 786
|
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
46% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
44% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
3% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
6% |
Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
| Candidate |
Florida Likely Voters n= 819
|
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
43% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
39% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
6% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
2% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
<1% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
9% |
Q6. If the 2016 election for U.S. Senator from Florida were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
| Candidate |
Likely Florida Voters n= 797 |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
43% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
49% |
| Someone else |
<1% |
| Don't Know |
7% |
Q7. As you may know, there is state Constitutional Amendment #2 on the November 2016 ballot, it reads, "Allows medical use of marijuana for individuals with debilitating medical conditions as determined by a licensed Florida physician. Allows caregivers to assist patients' medical use of marijuana. The Department of Health shall register and regulate centers that produce and distribute marijuana for medical purposes and shall issue identification cards to patients and caregivers. Applies only to Florida law. Does not immunize violations of federal law or any non‐medical use, possession or production of marijuana." Do you think that you will vote for or against this amendment?
| Answer Options |
Likely Florida Voters n= 803 |
| Yes |
73% |
| No |
22% |
| Don't Know |
5% |
Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
| Answer Options |
Florida Likely Voters n= 836 |
| Jobs and Economy |
28% |
| Education |
9% |
| Healthcare |
9% |
| Immigration |
6% |
| Environment |
6% |
| Social Security |
5% |
| Foreign Policy |
5% |
| Terrorism |
13% |
| Race Relations |
1% |
| Everything |
5% |
| Something Else |
11% |
| Don't Know |
3% |
Breakdown by Race
| Race |
Florida Likely Voters n= 836 |
| White (not Hispanic) |
68% |
| Black (not Hispanic) |
13% |
| Hispanic |
14% |
| Other |
5% |
Breakdown by Gender
| Gender |
Florida Likely Voters n= 836 |
| Men |
45% |
| Women |
55% |
Breakdown of Party
| Party Registration |
Florida Likely Voters n= 836 |
| Republican |
40% |
| Democrat |
40% |
| NPA and other |
20% |
Breakdown by Age
| Age |
Florida Likely Voters n= 836 |
| 18-24 |
8% |
| 25-34 |
12% |
| 35-44 |
10% |
| 45-55 |
17% |
| 56-64 |
19% |
| 65 and older |
33% |
Breakdown of Phone Type
| Telephone |
Florida Likely Voters n= 799 |
| Landline |
32% |
| Cell phone |
68% |
Crosstabs
Presidential Vote Choice and Gender
| Candidate |
Men |
Women |
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
38% |
47% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
46% |
34% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
6% |
6% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
2% |
2% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
1% |
<1% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
8% |
10% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 819
Presidential Vote Choice and Education
| Candidate |
College Degree |
No College Degree |
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
44% |
42% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
37% |
42% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
7% |
5% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
2% |
2% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
1% |
<1% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
8% |
8% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 781
Presidential Vote Choice and Party Registration
| Candidate |
Democrat |
Republican |
NPA and other |
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
77% |
13% |
35% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
9% |
71% |
38% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
4% |
6% |
11% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
2% |
1% |
4% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
<1% |
<1% |
1% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
8% |
9% |
10% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 819
Presidential Vote Choice and Race
| Candidate |
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
35% |
81% |
48% |
34% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
48% |
5% |
29% |
39% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
7% |
1% |
6% |
10% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
2% |
- |
3% |
6% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
1% |
- |
1% |
- |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
7% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 819
Presidential Vote Choice and Age
| Candidate |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-55 |
56-65 |
65 and older |
| Hillary Clinton, the Democrat |
48% |
48% |
50% |
39% |
35% |
44% |
| Donald Trump, the Republican |
21% |
22% |
26% |
49% |
49% |
44% |
| Gary Johnson, the Libertarian |
13% |
13% |
10% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
| Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate |
6% |
2% |
7% |
1% |
3% |
<1% |
| Someone else (VOL) |
2% |
2% |
- |
- |
- |
<1% |
| Don't Know (VOL) |
11% |
12% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 819
Senate Vote Choice and Gender
| Candidate |
Men |
Women |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
38% |
46% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
55% |
44% |
| Someone else |
2% |
1% |
| Don't Know |
5% |
8% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 797
Senate Vote Choice and Education
| Candidate |
College Degree |
No College Degree |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
44% |
42% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
49% |
49% |
| Someone else |
1% |
2% |
| Don't Know |
6% |
7% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 764
Senate Vote Choice and Party Registration
| Candidate |
Democrat |
Republican |
NPA and other |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
75% |
10% |
44% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
17% |
83% |
47% |
| Someone else |
1% |
1% |
3% |
| Don't Know |
7% |
7% |
6% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 797
Senate Vote Choice and Race
| Candidate |
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
35% |
76% |
52% |
28% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
57% |
14% |
41% |
61% |
| Someone else |
2% |
1% |
1% |
- |
| Don't Know |
6% |
9% |
6% |
10% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 797
Senate Vote Choice and Age
| Candidate |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-55 |
56-65 |
65 and older |
| Patrick Murphy, the Democrat |
47% |
44% |
53% |
39% |
42% |
40% |
| Marco Rubio, the Republican |
38% |
42% |
40% |
54% |
53% |
53% |
| Someone else |
1% |
1% |
1% |
- |
2% |
2% |
| Don't Know |
14% |
12% |
6% |
6% |
3% |
5% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 797
Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Party Registration
| Answer Options |
Democrat |
Republican |
NPA and others |
| Yes |
81% |
63% |
76% |
| No |
14% |
31% |
20% |
| Don't Know |
5% |
6% |
4% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 803
Florida Constitutional Amendment 2 and Age
| Answer Options |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-55 |
56-65 |
65 and older |
| Yes |
84% |
82% |
76% |
75% |
75% |
62% |
| No |
7% |
13% |
18% |
20% |
21% |
32% |
| Don't Know |
9% |
5% |
6% |
5% |
4% |
6% |
Florida Likely Voters n= 803
