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October 13, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.

 

Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

 

Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.

 

"This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

 

"Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.

 

The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Q1. If the election for Florida's 13th Congressional District were being held today, who would you vote for…
Candidate Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=590
Charlie Crist, the Democrat 54%
David Jolly, the Republican 36%
Someone else 1%
Don't Know 9%

 

Party Registration
Party Registration Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=611
Democrat 41%
Republican 37%
NPA and Other 22%

 

Race
Race Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=611
White (not Hispanic) 82%
Black (not Hispanic) 10%
Hispanic 4%
Other 4%

 

Gender
Gender Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=611
Men 44%
Women 56%

 

Age
Age Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=611
18-24 5%
25-34 15%
35-44 10%
45-55 16%
56-64 19%
65 and older 34%

 

Phone Type
Telephone Florida Congressional District 13
Likely Voters n=611
Landline 28%
Cell phone 72%

Crosstabs

Vote Choice and Party Registration
Candidate Democrat Republican NPA and other
Charlie Crist, the Democrat 86% 22% 48%
David Jolly, the Republican 7% 70% 33%
Someone else - <1% 3%
Don't Know 7% 8% 16%

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

 

Vote Choice and Race
Candidate White Black Hispanic Other
Charlie Crist, the Democrat 47% 87% 72% 83%
David Jolly, the Republican 42% 5% 18% 17%
Someone else 1% - - -
Don't Know 10% 8% 9% -

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

 

Vote Choice by Gender
Candidate Men Women
Charlie Crist, the Democrat 51% 56%
David Jolly, the Republican 42% 32%
Someone else 2% -
Don't Know 6% 12%

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590

 

Vote Choice and Age
Candidate 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
Charlie Crist, the Democrat 66% 58% 59% 51% 52% 50%
David Jolly, the Republican 28% 26% 26% 44% 34% 43%
Someone else - 1% 5% - - -
Don't Know 6% 15% 9% 4% 14% 7%

Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590