October 13, 2016
Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist
Department of Public Relations
(904) 620-2192
Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder
Public Opinion Research Lab Director
(904) 620-2784
Poll of Likely Florida Voters Shows that Charlie Crist holds a substantial lead over David Jolly in Florida Congressional District 13
Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida Congressional District 13 by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida shows that Democrat Charlie Crist, 54 percent, has a sizeable lead over incumbent David Jolly, 36 percent.
Republican David Jolly became a member of the United States House of Representatives for Florida's 13th Congressional District in a special election in 2014. Before his 2016 re-election campaign began, Jolly had his eye on a US Senate seat, but stepped aside when Marco Rubio re-entered that contest. Although Jolly is the incumbent in this race, he faces a tough Democrat challenger in former Florida Governor Charlie Crist.
Charlie Crist has a lengthy political resume, which includes Governor and Attorney General of Florida. Narrowly defeated by Rick Scott in his bid to regain the Governor's seat in 2014, Crist has returned to his hometown and is looking to represent the district in Washington DC. While Crist has not always been a member the Democratic Party, he was previously both Republican and Independent, his chances look promising to represent the 13th District which is leaning more Democratic since Florida's redistricting.
"This relatively large lead for Charlie Crist is due, in part, to name recognition and I think this will play out in other races as well. Trump and Clinton have dominated the media, making it a struggle in this environment for candidates without highly recognized names", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.
"Another advantage for Crist is that he is faring well across party lines and, perhaps because he was once a Republican, he is getting 22 percent of Republican support", said Dr. Binder. "Even though Crist is doing quite well with African American (87 percent) and Hispanic (72 percent) voters, this district is predominately white and he is winning there too with 47 percent compared with 42 percent for David Jolly."
Methodology
The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Sunday, October 9 through Tuesday, October 11, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 611 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.
Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election. Data are weighted to the likely voter demographics - gender, race and party registration - prior to applying question regarding the respondent's likelihood of voting.
The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses was 28 percent on a landline phone to 72 percent a cell phone. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.
The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.
Survey Results
Q1. If the election for Florida's 13th Congressional District were being held today, who would you vote for…
| Candidate |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590
|
| Charlie Crist, the Democrat |
54% |
| David Jolly, the Republican |
36% |
| Someone else |
1% |
| Don't Know |
9% |
Party Registration
| Party Registration |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=611
|
| Democrat |
41% |
| Republican |
37% |
| NPA and Other |
22% |
Race
| Race |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=611
|
| White (not Hispanic) |
82% |
| Black (not Hispanic) |
10% |
| Hispanic |
4% |
| Other |
4% |
Gender
| Gender |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=611
|
| Men |
44% |
| Women |
56% |
Age
| Age |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=611
|
| 18-24 |
5% |
| 25-34 |
15% |
| 35-44 |
10% |
| 45-55 |
16% |
| 56-64 |
19% |
| 65 and older |
34% |
Phone Type
| Telephone |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=611
|
| Landline |
28% |
| Cell phone |
72% |
Crosstabs
Vote Choice and Party Registration
| Candidate |
Democrat |
Republican |
NPA and other |
| Charlie Crist, the Democrat |
86% |
22% |
48% |
| David Jolly, the Republican |
7% |
70% |
33% |
| Someone else |
- |
<1% |
3% |
| Don't Know |
7% |
8% |
16% |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590
Vote Choice and Race
| Candidate |
White |
Black |
Hispanic |
Other |
| Charlie Crist, the Democrat |
47% |
87% |
72% |
83% |
| David Jolly, the Republican |
42% |
5% |
18% |
17% |
| Someone else |
1% |
- |
- |
- |
| Don't Know |
10% |
8% |
9% |
- |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590
Vote Choice by Gender
| Candidate |
Men |
Women |
| Charlie Crist, the Democrat |
51% |
56% |
| David Jolly, the Republican |
42% |
32% |
| Someone else |
2% |
- |
| Don't Know |
6% |
12% |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590
Vote Choice and Age
| Candidate |
18-24 |
25-34 |
35-44 |
45-55 |
56-65 |
65 and older |
| Charlie Crist, the Democrat |
66% |
58% |
59% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
| David Jolly, the Republican |
28% |
26% |
26% |
44% |
34% |
43% |
| Someone else |
- |
1% |
5% |
- |
- |
- |
| Don't Know |
6% |
15% |
9% |
4% |
14% |
7% |
Florida Congressional District 13 Likely Voters n=590
