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Embargo: April 16, 2019 - 6 a.m. E.S.T.

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2102

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

Crosstabs

 

New UNF Poll Shows Castor Exceeds Straz in Mayoral Runoff Election Majority Say Access to Public Transportation Most Important Issue Facing Tampa

The Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has a new poll of likely voters that reveals mayoral candidate Jane Castor in the lead for the upcoming mayoral runoff election in Tampa. The survey also shows that a majority of respondents believe access to public transportation is the most important issue facing Tampa today.

 

The poll, comprised of likely Tampa voters, shows that 64% of respondents plan to vote for Castor, 28% plan to vote for Straz and 9% are still undecided. Among Democrats, 68% indicate they plan to vote for Castor, 23% for Straz and 9% don't know for whom they'll cast their vote. Of Republican likely voters, 59% indicate that they will vote for Castor while 33% indicate they'll vote for Straz and 8% don't know.

 

"Castor almost got to 50% in the March election, it appears as though she will easily garner a majority of the votes next week," said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Lab at UNF.

 

An overwhelming majority of respondents, 78%, believe Tampa is on the right track, while 13% say it's headed in the wrong direction and 9% don't know. Additionally, the poll shows that 27% of likely voters in Tampa believe access to public transportation is the most important issue facing the city, followed by education at 15%. Of those who believe transportation is the most important issue, 72% plan to vote for Castor, while 21% plan to vote for Straz. Of likely voters who said education is the most important issue, 51% plan to vote for Castor and 33% plan to vote for Straz.

 

"The most important issue to voters across all parties, access to public transportation, is one of Castor's strongest issues, in which she leads him by 51 percentage points," Binder noted. "In fact, in none of the top nine issues does Straz hold a lead over Castor."

 

Respondents were also asked whether they approve or disapprove of continuing Tampa's driving safety campaign Stop on Red Tampa. This campaign aims to reduce crashes at intersections by using red light cameras to detect when drivers run a red light. Forty-two percent of respondents approve of the continued use of red light cameras in the city, while 54% disapprove. When asked who they believe should have the most influence in providing affordable housing in Tampa, 50% of respondents said local government, followed by 22% for non-profit leaders. Business leaders and religious leaders had 10% and 4%, respectively.

 

"Even though only 54% disapprove of the red light camera program, 44% strongly disapprove, suggesting that there is deep seated opposition to this extremely contentious issue," said Binder.

 

For details about the methodology of the survey and additional crosstabs by partisanship, sex, education, race and age, visit the webpage.

Survey Results

If the 2019 election for Mayor of Tampa were held today, would you vote for…
Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
n=653
Jane Castor 64%
David Straz 28%
Don't Know 9%

 

By Party
Answer Options Democratic Likely Voters
n=428
Republican Likely Voters
n=211
Jane Castor 68% 59%
David Straz 23% 33%
Don't Know 9% 11%

 

Overall, do you think that Tampa is on the right track, or headed in the wrong direction?
Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
n=695
Right Track 78%
Wrong Direction 13%
Don't Know 9%

 

In your opinion, what do you think is the most important issue facing Tampa today? (Choices Rotated)
Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
n=700
Education 15%
Economy 9%
Access to Health Care 9%
Crime 8%
Downtown Development 6%
Tax Burden 2%
Access to Public Transportation 27%
Improving the Environment 6%
Affordable Housing 3%
Homelessness 1%
Immigration <1%
Infrastructure 5%
Manage Growth <1%
Traffic 2%
Other 3%
Don't Know 4%

 

Currently, Tampa's driving safety campaign Stop on Red Tampa aims to reduce crashes at intersections with red light cameras. In general, do you approve or disapprove of the continued use of red light cameras?
Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
n=698
Strongly Approve 25%
Somewhat Approve 16%
Somewhat Disapprove 10%
Strongly Disapprove 44%
Don't Know 5%

 

Who should have the most influence in providing affordable housing in Tampa?
Answer Options Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
Local Government 50%
Business Leaders 10%
Non-profit Leaders 22%
Religious Leaders 4%
The people 1%
Free Market 1%
Federal Government 1%
All 9%
None 2%
Other 1%
Don't Know -

Survey Demographics

By Party
Party Registration Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
Democrat 54%
Republican 31%
NPA and other 14%

 

By Age
Age Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
18 to 24 1%
25 to 34 7%
35 to 44 12%
45 to 55 14%
56 to 64 23%
65 and older 43%

 

By Race
Race Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
White (not Hispanic) 55%
Black (not Hispanic) 27%
Hispanic 14%
Other 4%

 

By Sex
Sex Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
Male 44%
Female 56%

 

By Phone Type
Telephone Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
Landline 24%
Cell phone 76%

 

By Education Type
Education Tampa Likely Voters
n=702
Less than high school 3%
High school graduate 16%
Some college 39%
College graduate 22%
Post graduate degree 18%
Don't Know <1%

Methodology

The UNF Tampa Mayoral Poll was conducted and sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida from Wednesday, April 10, through Friday, April 12, by live callers via the telephone; calls were made from 4 to 9 p.m. Wednesday through Friday, with a maximum of five callbacks attempted. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish by UNF undergraduate students and employees. Data collection took place at the PORL facility with its 27-station Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) system. The phone numbers used for this survey were sourced from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida Voter File.

 

The sample frame was comprised of potentially likely voters who reside in Tampa. Potentially likely voters were determined by vote history and having voted in the any four of the following elections: 2014 Primary Election, 2014 General Election, 2016 Primary Election, 2016 General Election, 2018 Primary Election and 2018 General Election. The voters who met these requirements were then randomly contacted by probability sampling. Respondents who answered that they would "definitely vote" in the upcoming 2019 Mayoral Election qualified to participate in the survey. Overall, there were 704 completed surveys of likely Tampa voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

The margin of sampling error for the total sample is +/- 3.7 percentage points. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 21 to 79. Through hand dialing, an interviewer upon reaching the individual as specified in the voter file asked that respondent to participate, regardless of landline telephone or cell phone. Data were then weighted by partisan registration, sex, race and education. Education weights were created from the 2017 American Community Survey (ACS). Partisan registration, sex and race weights were created from the January 9, 2019, update of the Florida voter file to match the active registered potentially likely voters in Tampa, Florida. All weighted demographic variables were applied using the SPSS version 23 rake weighting function, which won't assign a weight if one of the demographics being weighted on is missing. Individuals without a weight were manually given a weight of 1. There were no statistical adjustments made due to design effects. This study had a 16 percent response rate. The American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Response Rate 3 (RR3) calculation was used which consists of an estimate of what proportion of cases of unknown eligibility are truly eligible. This survey was sponsored by the UNF PORL and directed by Dr. Michael Binder, UNF associate professor of political science.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center, a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organization. As members of AAPOR, the PORL's goal is to support sound and ethical practices in the conduct of survey and public opinion research. Moreover, the PORL is a charter member of the AAPOR Transparency Initiative and a member of the Association of Academic Survey Research Organizations. For more information about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.