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Press Release for Thursday, October 6, 2016

Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

 

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

Poll of Likely Voters Shows that Florida Swings Towards Hillary Clinton

Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump (40 percent), if the election with just those two candidates were held today.

 

In a four candidate contest-with Trump, Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein-Clinton still prevailed with 41 percent, Trump followed with 38 percent, Johnson garnered 6 percent and Stein finished fourth with 3 percent and 10 percent still undecided.

 

"Clinton has gotten a bounce after her strong debate performance last week, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out after the second debate on Sunday", said Dr. Michael Binder, faculty director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

 

"The size of Clinton's lead drops when the additional candidates (Johnson and Stein) are listed in the question," Binder noted. "This suggests that the Clinton campaign should perhaps perceive Johnson as a threat, who is taking more votes from her than Trump."

 

According to Binder, while neither candidate has high favorability for the majority of likely voters in Florida, Clinton's net negative 9 percent is better than Trump's net negative 23 percent.

 

When asked about their vote choice, 46 percent of those who said they were voting for Trump indicated that it was a vote against Clinton; for those who are voting for Clinton, 43 percent said their vote would be against Trump. "Interestingly, both candidates are almost evenly split when it comes to whether people are voting for or against them, which is unusual in a presidential election," Binder said.

 

When asked about immigration policy, the results were somewhat surprising considering the prominence of that issue in this election. "For all of the talk about deportation and 'building walls', majorities of Democrats, NPAs and even Republicans in Florida are supportive of pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants", said Binder.

Methodology

The Florida statewide poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday, Sep. 27, through Tuesday, Oct. 4, by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida's Division of Elections September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.

 

Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were "Almost Certain" or "Very Likely" to vote in November's general election.

 

The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

 

The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

Survey Results

Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for?
Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 661)
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 47%
Donald Trump, the Republican 40%
Someone else (VOL) 4%
Don't Know (VOL) 9%

 

Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…
Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 686)
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 41%
Donald Trump, the Republican 38%
Gary Johnson, the Libertarian 6%
Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate 3%
Someone else (VOL) 2%
Don't Know (VOL) 10%

If Vote Choice Trump:

Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Donald Trump or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?
Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 259)
FOR Donald Trump 52%
AGAINST Hillary Clinton 46%
Don't Know 2%

If Vote Choice Clinton:

Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?*
Answers Florida Likely Voters (n= 278)
FOR Hillary Clinton 53%
AGAINST Donald Trump 43%
Don't Know 4%

 

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.

 

Q8. Hillary Clinton
Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 661
Favorable 43%
Unfavorable 54%
Never Heard of Her <1%
Don't Know 3%

 

Q9. Donald Trump
Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 661
Favorable 37%
Unfavorable 60%
Never Heard of Him <1%
Don't Know 2%

 

Q17. Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States?
Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 623
Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 10%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 12%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 7%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 49%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 21%
Don't Know 1%

 

Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?
Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 690
Jobs and Economy 27%
Education 10%
Healthcare 8%
Immigration 7%
Environment 5%
Social Security 4%
Foreign Policy 4%
Terrorism 17%
Race Relations 1%
Everything 5%
Something Else 8%
Don't Know 3%

 

Q20. Which of these comes closest to your view on the federal minimum wage?
Answers Florida Likely Voters n= 626
Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished. 4%
Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same. 7%
The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation. 31%
The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted for inflation. 36%
The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour. 19%
Don't Know 2%

 

By Race
Race Florida Likely Voters n= 696
White (not Hispanic) 68%
Black (not Hispanic) 13%
Hispanic 14%
Other 5%

 

By Gender
Gender Florida Likely Voters n= 696
Men 45%
Women 55%

 

By Party
Party Registration Florida Likely Voters n= 696
Republican 40%
Democrat 40%
NPA and other 20%

 

By Age
Age Florida Likely Voters n= 696
18-24 6%
25-34 13%
35-44 9%
45-55 14%
56-64 20%
65 and older 38%

 

By Phone Type
Telephone Florida Likely Voters n= 615
Landline 32%
Cell phone 68%

Crosstabs

Vote Choice and Gender
Vote Choice and Gender Men Women
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 40% 53%
Donald Trump, the Republican 46% 36%
Someone else (VOL) 6% 2%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

 

Vote Choice and Education
Vote Choice and Education College Degree No College Degree
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 51% 42%
Donald Trump, the Republican 36% 48%
Someone else (VOL) 5% 3%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 7%

Florida Likely Voters n= 561

 

Vote Choice and Party Registration
Vote Choice and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and other
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 79% 10% 56%
Donald Trump, the Republican 10% 77% 29%
Someone else (VOL) 3% 4% 6%
Don't Know (VOL) 8% 9% 9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

 

Vote Choice and Race
Vote Choice and Race White Black Hispanic Other
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 37% 86% 56% 53%
Donald Trump, the Republican 51% 1% 28% 41%
Someone else (VOL) 4% 2% 8% 2%
Don't Know (VOL) 9% 11% 9% 4%

Florida Likely Voters n=661

 

Vote Choice and Age
Vote Choice and Age 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-55 56-65 65 and older
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat 70% 55% 48% 55% 43% 40%
Donald Trump, the Republican 18% 33% 32% 31% 50% 49%
Someone else (VOL) 3% 7% 10% 5% 5% <1%
Don't Know (VOL) 9% 5% 9% 9% 2% 10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 570

 

Immigration Policy and Party Registration
Immigration Policy and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and others
Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 6% 17% 5%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 4% 21% 9%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 5% 9% 8%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 52% 42% 56%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 34% 10% 20%
Don't Know <1% 2% 3%

Florida Likely Voters n= 623

 

Most Important Problem and Party Registration
Most Important Problem and Party Registration Democrat Republican NPA and others
Jobs and Economy 24% 31% 25%
Education 13% 4% 15%
Healthcare 11% 5% 8%
Immigration 4% 10% 9%
Environment 8% 1% 5%
Social Security 4% 5% 2%
Foreign Policy 4% 6% 3%
Terrorism 14% 21% 16%
Something Else 7% 9% 9%
Race Relations 3% <1% <1%
Everything 5% 5% 4%
Don't Know 4% 3% 2%

Florida Likely Voters n= 690

 

Federal Minimum Wage and Party Registration
Answers Democrat Republican NPA and other
Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished. 2% 7% 3%
Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same. 2% 13% 6%
The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation. 18% 45% 30%
The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted inflation. 39% 29% 45%
The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour. 38% 4% 11%
Don't Know 1% 2% 4%

Florida Likely Voters n= 626