Press Release for Thursday, October 6, 2016


 Media Contact: Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist 

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

                    

Methodology Results Contact: Dr. Michael Binder

Public Opinion Research Lab Director

(904) 620-2784

 

Poll of Likely Voters Shows that Florida Swings Towards Hillary Clinton  

 

 

Jacksonville, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Florida by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, shows that 47 percent of respondents would vote for Clinton over Trump (40 percent) if the election with just those two candidates were held today. In a four candidate contest – with Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein – Clinton still prevailed with 41 percent, Trump followed with 38 percent, Johnson garnered 6 percent and Stein finished fourth with 3 percent with 10 percent still undecided.

“Clinton has gotten a bounce after her strong debate performance last week, it will be fascinating to see how this plays out after the second debate on Sunday”, said Dr. Michael Binder, Faculty Director of the Public Opinion Research Laboratory.

 

 “The size of Clinton’s lead drops when the additional candidates (Johnson and Stein) are listed in the question. This suggests that the Clinton campaign should perhaps perceive Johnson as a threat, who is taking more votes from her than Trump”, said Dr. Binder.

 

Binder said, “While neither candidate has high favorability for the majority of likely voters in Florida, Clinton’s net negative 9 percent is better than Trump’s net negative 23 percent”. 


When asked about their vote choice, 46 percent of those who said they were voting for Trump indicated that it was a vote against Clinton; for those who are voting for Clinton, 43 percent said their vote would be against Trump. 


“Interestingly, both candidates are almost evenly split when it comes to whether people are voting for or against them, which is unusual in a presidential election," said Binder   

 

When asked about immigration policy, the results were somewhat surprising considering the prominence of that issue in this election. “For all of the talk about deportation and ‘building walls’, majorities of Democrats, NPAs and even Republicans in Florida are supportive of pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants”, said Dr. Binder.

 


Methodology

The Florida Statewide Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Tuesday September 27, through Tuesday, October 4, 2016 by live callers over the telephone. Samples were created through the voter file provided by Florida’s Division of Elections on September 2016 and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish, with 696 registered likely voters, 18 years of age or older.  Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016, or were too young to vote in 2014, but are now eligible. In addition, to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they were “Almost Certain” or “Very Likely” to vote in November’s general election.  The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 32 to 68 percent. The sample had quota for geography based on Florida media markets. This survey was sponsored by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by associate professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784. PDF version; website: https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/ 

 

Florida Statewide General Election Poll Results 2016

 

Q3. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for…?

Answers

Florida Likely Voters

n= 661

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

47%

Donald Trump, the Republican

40%

Someone else (VOL)

4%

Don’t Know (VOL)

9%

 

Q4. If the 2016 presidential election were held today, how would you vote if the candidates were…

Answers

Florida Likely Voters

n= 686

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

41%

Donald Trump, the Republican

38%

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian

6%

Jill Stein, the Green Party Candidate

3%

Someone else (VOL)

2%

Don’t Know (VOL)

10%

 

If Vote Choice Trump:

Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Donald Trump or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?  

n=259

FOR Donald Trump

AGAINST Hillary Clinton

Don’t Know

Florida Likely Voters       

52%

46%

2%

 

If Vote Choice Clinton:

Would you say that your choice is more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?

n=278

FOR Hillary Clinton

AGAINST Donald Trump

Don’t Know

Florida Likely Voters    

53%

43%

4%

 

 Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them.

Q8.  Hillary Clinton

Answers

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

Favorable

43%

Unfavorable

54%

Never Heard of Her

<1%

Don’t Know

3%

 

Q9.  Donald Trump

Answers

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

Favorable

37%

Unfavorable

60%

Never Heard of Him

<1%

Don’t Know

2%

 

Q17. Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States?

Answers

Florida Likely Voters n= 623

Make them all felons and send them back to their home country.

10%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time.

12%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

7%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines.

49%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

21%

Don’t Know

1%

 

 Q2. What do you think is the most important problem facing the US today?

Answers

Florida Likely Voters n= 690

Jobs and Economy

27%

Education

10%

Healthcare

8%

Immigration

7%

Environment

5%

Social Security

4%

Foreign Policy

4%

Terrorism

17%

Race Relations

1%

Everything

5%

Something Else

8%

Don’t Know

3%

 

Q20. Which of these comes closest to your view on the federal minimum wage?

Answers

Florida Likely Voters n= 626

Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished.

4%

Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same.

7%

The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation.

31%

The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted for inflation.

36%

The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour.

19%

Don’t Know

2%

 

 

Race

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

White (not Hispanic)

68%

Black (not Hispanic)

13%

Hispanic

14%

Other

5%

 

 

Gender

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

Men

45%

Women

55%

 

 

Party Registration

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

Republican

40%

Democrat

40%

NPA and other

20%

 

 

Age

Florida Likely Voters n= 696

18-24

6%

25-34

13%

35-44

9%

45-55

14%

56-64

20%

65 and older

38%

 

Telephone

Florida Likely Voters n= 615

Landline

32%

Cell phone

68%

 

Crosstabs

 

 

Vaote Choice and Gender

Men

Women

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

40%

53%

Donald Trump, the Republican

46%

36%

Someone else (VOL)

6%

2%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

 

 

Vote Choice and Education

College Degree

No College Degree

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

51%

42%

Donald Trump, the Republican

36%

48%

Someone else (VOL)

5%

3%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

7%

Florida Likely Voters n= 561

 

 

Vote Choice and Party Registration

Democrat

Republican

NPA and other

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

79%

10%

56%

Donald Trump, the Republican

10%

77%

29%

Someone else (VOL)

3%

4%

6%

Don’t Know (VOL)

8%

9%

9%

Florida Likely Voters n= 661

 

 

 Vote Choice and Race

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

37%

86%

56%

53%

Donald Trump, the Republican

51%

1%

28%

41%

Someone else (VOL)

4%

2%

8%

2%

Don’t Know (VOL)

9%

11%

9%

4%

Florida Likely Voters n=661

 

 

Vote Choice and Age

18-24

25-34

35-44

45-55

56-65

65 and older

Hillary Clinton, the Democrat

70%

55%

48%

55%

43%

40%

Donald Trump, the Republican

18%

33%

32%

31%

50%

49%

Someone else (VOL)

3%

7%

10%

5%

5%

<1%

Don’t Know (VOL)

9%

5%

9%

9%

2%

10%

Florida Likely Voters n= 570

 

 

Immigration Policy and Party Registration

Democrat

Republican

NPA and others

Make them all felons and send them back to their home country.

6%

17%

5%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time.

4%

21%

9%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship.

5%

9%

8%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines.

52%

42%

56%

Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties.

34%

10%

20%

Don’t Know

<1%

2%

3%

Florida Likely Voters n= 623

 

 

Most Important Problem and Party Registration

Democrat

Republican

NPA and others

Jobs and Economy

24%

31%

25%

Education

13%

4%

15%

Healthcare

11%

5%

8%

Immigration

4%

10%

9%

Environment

8%

1%

5%

Social Security

4%

5%

2%

Foreign Policy

4%

6%

3%

Terrorism

14%

21%

16%

Something Else

7%

9%

9%

Race Relations

3%

<1%

<1%

Everything

5%

5%

4%

Don’t Know

4%

3%

2%

Florida Likely Voters n= 690


Federal Minimum Wage and Party Registration

Answers

Democrat

Republican

NPA and other

Having a federal minimum wage is harmful to the economy; it should be abolished.

2%

7%

3%

Raising the federal minimum wage would be harmful to the economy; it should be kept the same.

2%

13%

6%

The federal minimum wage should be kept as is but should be adjusted for inflation.

18%

45%

30%

The federal minimum wage is too low; it should be raised to $10 an hour and adjusted inflation.

39%

29%

45%

The minimum wage is too low; it should be immediately raised to $15 an hour.

38%

4%

11%

Don’t Know

1%

2%

4%

Florida Likely Voters n= 626