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At
right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through
the games of Sunday, March 11, 2007 (i.e., all regular season and
conference tournament games) according to the "Score Card"
formula developed by Jay Coleman
of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.
The Score Card is
a formula designed to predict the results of
NCAA Tournament games using the
information that the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee has in its
so-called "nitty-gritty" report for each team.
Predictions and
probabilities for the 2007 sixth round game are posted below,
along with results of all first, second, third, fourth, and fifth round
predictions.
Rankings for the 2005
and 2006 seasons, as well as the predictions and results for each
tournament game in those years, can be found at these links:
2006
2005
Coleman
and Lynch's "" formula, which is designed to predict which
teams will receive at-large bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection
Committee, can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.
The Score
Card is featured (along with the Dance Card) in the story on sas.com that is linked in the box.
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Predictions
for Round 1 Tournament Games for 2007
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The percentages shown at the far right for each game represents the
probability that the higher seed will win the game. Teams noted
in bold represent lower seeds who are projected to win the game outright,
based on the probabilities shown. In round 1, the three
predicted upsets include two 12-seeds over 5-seeds (Illinois
over Virginia Tech, and Arkansas
over Southern California).  = Game
predicted correctly.
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Midwest:
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1
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Florida
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4.5205
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16
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Jackson St.
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1.4801
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99.88%
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8
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Arizona
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4.0014
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9
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Purdue
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3.7713
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59.10%
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5
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Butler
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3.5522
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12
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Old
Dominion
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3.4451
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54.26%
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4
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Maryland
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4.2040
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13
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Davidson
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3.4888
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76.28%
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6
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Notre
Dame
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3.6524
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11
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Winthrop
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2.5434
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86.63%
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3
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Oregon
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3.9677
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14
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Miami OH
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2.8091
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87.67%
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7
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Nevada Las Vegas
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3.9473
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10
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Georgia
Tech
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3.8916
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52.22%
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2
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Wisconsin
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4.1018
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15
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Tex. A&M Corpus Chris
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2.7131
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91.75%
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West:
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Niagara
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2.4259
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Florida A&M
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1.5311
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81.46%
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1
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Kansas
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4.4043
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16
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Niagara
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2.4259
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97.61%
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8
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Kentucky
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3.9378
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9
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Villanova
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3.8148
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54.89%
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5
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Virginia
Tech
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3.7557
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12
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Illinois
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3.8497
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46.26%
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4
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Southern Illinois
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4.4051
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13
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Holy
Cross
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3.1080
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90.27%
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6
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Duke
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3.8746
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11
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Virginia Commonwealth
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3.6210
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60.01%
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3
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Pittsburgh
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3.9170
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14
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Wright St.
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3.5633
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63.82%
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7
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Indiana
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3.5885
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10
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Gonzaga
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3.3372
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59.92%
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2
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UCLA
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4.4916
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15
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Weber St.
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2.3012
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98.58%
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East:
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1
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North
Carolina
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4.5775
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16
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Eastern
Kentucky
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2.0150
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99.48%
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8
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Marquette
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3.6252
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9
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Michigan St.
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3.7131
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46.50%
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5
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Southern
California
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3.6891
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12
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Arkansas
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3.9179
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40.95%
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4
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Texas
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3.7503
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13
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New
Mexico St.
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3.3061
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67.16%
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6
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Vanderbilt
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3.7990
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11
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George
Washington
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3.3157
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68.56%
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3
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Washington
St.
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3.9005
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14
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Oral
Roberts
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2.9186
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83.69%
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7
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Boston
College
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3.8021
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10
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Texas
Tech
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3.4741
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62.85%
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2
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Georgetown
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4.3975
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15
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Belmont
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2.1168
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98.87%
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South:
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1
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Ohio
St.
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4.7640
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16
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Central
Connecticut
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2.2412
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99.42%
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8
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Brigham
Young
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3.9718
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9
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Xavier
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3.8739
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53.90%
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5
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Tennessee
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4.1775
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12
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Long
Beach St.
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2.9056
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89.83%
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4
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Virginia
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4.0548
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13
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Albany
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2.4750
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94.29%
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6
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Louisville
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3.7418
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11
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Stanford
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3.5090
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59.20%
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3
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Texas
A&M
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3.7611
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14
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Pennsylvania
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3.2694
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68.85%
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7
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Nevada
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3.9008
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10
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Creighton
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3.8137
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53.47%
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2
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Memphis
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4.0155
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15
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North
Texas
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2.2839
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95.83%
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Summary
of Score Card Performance in First Round:
Correctly
predicted 27 out of 33 games (including the play-in game), or 81.8%
Correct on one
of the three upsets predicted (9 Michigan State over 8 Marquette), missing on
12 Illinois over 5 Virginia Tech and 12 Arkansas over 5 Southern
California.
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Predictions
for Round 2 Tournament Games for 2007
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The percentages shown at the far right for each game represents the
probability that the higher seed will win the game. In round 2,
the one predicted upset is 5 Tennessee over 4 Virginia.
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Midwest:
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1
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Florida
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4.5205
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9
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