DanceCard.unf.edu NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Score Card

Score Card Rankings for 2010

 At right are the rankings of the 64 teams participating in the 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, according to the "Score Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. The Score Card is a formula designed to estimate the probability that a team will win a given NCAA Tournament game using only the nitty-gritty report information that is provided to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. The results can also be used to estimate the probability that a team will win a given number of games in the Tournament (i.e., 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6), and to estimate the average number of games the team would win if the Tournament were to be played an infinite number of times.   The ranking at right can be used to complete an entire bracket, or to predict game results round-by-round, by simply picking the higher ranked team to win any given game.   The Score Card is different from the Dance Card, which is the model the authors developed (along with Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates) to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids. A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu. Accuracy and Performance of the Score Card The Score Card was developed based on Tournament results from 1999 through 2008. The formula would have accurately predicted 467 of the 638 Tournament games played during that time (or 73.2%). The formula was used for prediction for the first time in 2009, in which it correctly predicted 47 of the 63 games, or 74.6%. When used in 2009 to predict the number of games each team would win, the sum of squared errors (SSE) of the predictions was 46.39, or an average of 0.725 per team.

Predicted Number of Games Each Team Will Win

Using the Score Card's rankings at right, the table below contains the probability that each team will win a given number of games in this year's Tournament, as well as the expected number of games each team will win. The expected number of games won is essentially an estimate of the average number of games each team would win if this year's Tournament could be played an infinite number of times. The numbers in the "6" column represent the probability of that team winning it all. The sum of the numbers in the "4", "5", and "6" columns represents the probability that the team will make the Final Four.

 Probability of Winning this Number of Games South Region 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expd Won Duke 0.006800 0.524300 0.204300 0.093900 0.092638 0.055028 0.023035 1.998497 Villanova 0.115100 0.374500 0.289500 0.148900 0.050928 0.017968 0.003104 1.712376 Baylor 0.050100 0.592000 0.176600 0.126100 0.041277 0.011826 0.002097 1.560320 Purdue 0.465700 0.240600 0.161100 0.051300 0.043243 0.028396 0.009660 1.089617 Texas A&M 0.458700 0.279400 0.163100 0.045600 0.032355 0.016531 0.004314 0.980358 Notre Dame 0.530800 0.195800 0.096600 0.110300 0.046756 0.016445 0.003299 1.008944 Richmond 0.342800 0.300700 0.229900 0.090200 0.027941 0.007379 0.001079 1.186238 California 0.349000 0.251200 0.128200 0.075900 0.086329 0.073690 0.035681 1.663151 Louisville 0.651000 0.217900 0.072700 0.027700 0.020609 0.008189 0.001902 0.581193 St. Mary's 0.657200 0.234600 0.089400 0.016300 0.002241 0.000245 0.000015 0.472574 Old Dominion 0.469200 0.164400 0.093600 0.139200 0.080189 0.040960 0.012451 1.369463 Utah St. 0.541300 0.294600 0.108100 0.029200 0.019124 0.006436 0.001240 0.714517 Siena 0.534300 0.185300 0.162400 0.043000 0.047934 0.021464 0.005602 0.971767 Sam Houston St. 0.949900 0.047900 0.002000 0.000200 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.052500 Robert Morris 0.884900 0.090200 0.022400 0.002300 0.000191 0.000009 0.000000 0.142709 Arkansas Pine Bluff 0.993200 0.006700 0.000100 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.006900 Midwest Region 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expd Won Kansas 0.002700 0.058100 0.099100 0.129300 0.186154 0.101675 0.422971 4.435017 Ohio St. 0.035900 0.187100 0.215800 0.412600 0.077645 0.030460 0.040495 2.562351 Georgetown 0.055300 0.417400 0.315200 0.171900 0.026128 0.008625 0.005447 1.743819 Maryland 0.073700 0.558200 0.326200 0.027100 0.010593 0.002777 0.001430 1.356738 Michigan St. 0.163300 0.253700 0.489800 0.044000 0.030014 0.010608 0.008578 1.589864 Tennessee 0.320300 0.308100 0.241700 0.109500 0.013804 0.004059 0.002537 1.210733 Oklahoma St. 0.429000 0.424000 0.091100 0.050100 0.004626 0.000897 0.000277 0.781151 Nevada Las Vegas 0.548000 0.431700 0.013000 0.005200 0.001710 0.000301 0.000089 0.482179 Northern Iowa 0.452000 0.507600 0.024500 0.011000 0.003693 0.000854 0.000353 0.610760 Georgia Tech 0.571000 0.359800 0.051900 0.016200 0.000963 0.000118 0.000020 0.516757 San Diego St. 0.679700 0.225200 0.072400 0.020800 0.001588 0.000253 0.000059 0.440372 New Mexico St. 0.836700 0.121000 0.040800 0.001300 0.000180 0.000018 0.000002 0.207323 Houston 0.926300 0.067100 0.006500 0.000100 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.080400 Ohio 0.944700 0.049300 0.005600 0.000400 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.061700 UC Santa Barbara 0.964100 0.029100 0.006300 0.000500 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.043200 Lehigh 0.997300 0.002500 0.000200 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.002900 East Region 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expd Won Kentucky 0.014100 0.153700 0.322400 0.196400 0.102965 0.129306 0.081128 2.932863 West Virginia 0.044300 0.319600 0.354800 0.161700 0.058707 0.045924 0.014969 2.068562 New Mexico 0.022100 0.348100 0.211200 0.191700 0.090846 0.091493 0.044561 2.433816 Wisconsin 0.286200 0.459000 0.183200 0.045400 0.016002 0.008525 0.001673 1.078270 Temple 0.048300 0.257900 0.336600 0.160900 0.078527 0.079164 0.038609 2.355382 Marquette 0.291000 0.423600 0.133400 0.095200 0.026065 0.023937 0.006798 1.240733 Clemson 0.760700 0.182500 0.046000 0.008900 0.001423 0.000431 0.000046 0.309323 Texas 0.351900 0.515200 0.084100 0.033400 0.009613 0.004883 0.000903 0.851890 Wake Forest 0.648100 0.318600 0.026900 0.005400 0.000771 0.000212 0.000016 0.392845 Missouri 0.239300 0.459000 0.194500 0.073700 0.017731 0.012931 0.002837 1.221706 Washington 0.709000 0.207500 0.053800 0.021800 0.004810 0.002623 0.000467 0.415657 Cornell 0.951700 0.041100 0.006800 0.000400 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.055900 Wofford 0.713800 0.242000 0.038400 0.004800 0.000784 0.000201 0.000015 0.337431 Montana 0.977900 0.020800 0.001200 0.000100 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.023500 Morgan St. 0.955700 0.038800 0.005200 0.000300 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.050100 East Tennessee St. 0.985900 0.012500 0.001500 0.000100 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.015800 West Region 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Expd Won Syracuse 0.007500 0.073000 0.209400 0.177900 0.283400 0.077809 0.170991 3.574090 Kansas St. 0.088100 0.430600 0.301200 0.129500 0.041762 0.005861 0.002977 1.635715 Pittsburgh 0.235500 0.449200 0.126500 0.129400 0.047201 0.007102 0.005096 1.345295 Vanderbilt 0.407200 0.375100 0.175300 0.027100 0.013234 0.001458 0.000608 0.870874 Butler 0.367700 0.184900 0.282700 0.069200 0.070770 0.012198 0.012532 1.377163 Xavier 0.264900 0.212700 0.165100 0.203600 0.108080 0.020906 0.024714 1.838834 Brigham Young 0.713800 0.167900 0.081300 0.030500 0.005760 0.000569 0.000171 0.448911 Gonzaga 0.632600 0.341100 0.019300 0.005500 0.001382 0.000099 0.000019 0.402337 Florida St. 0.367400 0.579300 0.037200 0.012100 0.003634 0.000296 0.000070 0.706436 Florida 0.286200 0.325400 0.217600 0.124700 0.037712 0.005269 0.003119 1.330607 Minnesota 0.735100 0.161200 0.057700 0.037200 0.007688 0.000815 0.000297 0.424808 Texas El Paso 0.632300 0.144400 0.177600 0.025900 0.016376 0.002297 0.001127 0.661052 Murray St. 0.592800 0.295500 0.097700 0.009900 0.003706 0.000313 0.000081 0.537475 Oakland 0.764500 0.176900 0.039700 0.016500 0.002200 0.000164 0.000036 0.315636 North Texas 0.911900 0.076100 0.011000 0.001000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.101100 Vermont 0.992500 0.006600 0.000900 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.008400

Data Sources

In order to build the data on which the updated Score Card and its rankings were developed, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy. The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Score Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Score Card. In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Faye Merrideth, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports SAS Institute Inc.