DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Score Card

 

 

Score Card Rankings for 2010


At right are the rankings of the 64 teams participating in the 2010 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament, according to the "Score Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. The Score Card is a formula designed to estimate the probability that a team will win a given NCAA Tournament game using only the nitty-gritty report information that is provided to the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee. The results can also be used to estimate the probability that a team will win a given number of games in the Tournament (i.e., 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6), and to estimate the average number of games the team would win if the Tournament were to be played an infinite number of times.

 

The ranking at right can be used to complete an entire bracket, or to predict game results round-by-round, by simply picking the higher ranked team to win any given game.

 

The Score Card is different from the Dance Card, which is the model the authors developed (along with Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates) to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids. A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Accuracy and Performance of the Score Card


The Score Card was developed based on Tournament results from 1999 through 2008. The formula would have accurately predicted 467 of the 638 Tournament games played during that time (or 73.2%). The formula was used for prediction for the first time in 2009, in which it correctly predicted 47 of the 63 games, or 74.6%. When used in 2009 to predict the number of games each team would win, the sum of squared errors (SSE) of the predictions was 46.39, or an average of 0.725 per team.

 

Predicted Number of Games Each Team Will Win

Using the Score Card's rankings at right, the table below contains the probability that each team will win a given number of games in this year's Tournament, as well as the expected number of games each team will win. The expected number of games won is essentially an estimate of the average number of games each team would win if this year's Tournament could be played an infinite number of times. The numbers in the "6" column represent the probability of that team winning it all. The sum of the numbers in the "4", "5", and "6" columns represents the probability that the team will make the Final Four.

 

Probability of Winning this Number of Games

 

South Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Expd Won

Duke

0.006800

0.524300

0.204300

0.093900

0.092638

0.055028

0.023035

1.998497

Villanova

0.115100

0.374500

0.289500

0.148900

0.050928

0.017968

0.003104

1.712376

Baylor

0.050100

0.592000

0.176600

0.126100

0.041277

0.011826

0.002097

1.560320

Purdue

0.465700

0.240600

0.161100

0.051300

0.043243

0.028396

0.009660

1.089617

Texas A&M

0.458700

0.279400

0.163100

0.045600

0.032355

0.016531

0.004314

0.980358

Notre Dame

0.530800

0.195800

0.096600

0.110300

0.046756

0.016445

0.003299

1.008944

Richmond

0.342800

0.300700

0.229900

0.090200

0.027941

0.007379

0.001079

1.186238

California

0.349000

0.251200

0.128200

0.075900

0.086329

0.073690

0.035681

1.663151

Louisville

0.651000

0.217900

0.072700

0.027700

0.020609

0.008189

0.001902

0.581193

St. Mary's

0.657200

0.234600

0.089400

0.016300

0.002241

0.000245

0.000015

0.472574

Old Dominion

0.469200

0.164400

0.093600

0.139200

0.080189

0.040960

0.012451

1.369463

Utah St.

0.541300

0.294600

0.108100

0.029200

0.019124

0.006436

0.001240

0.714517

Siena

0.534300

0.185300

0.162400

0.043000

0.047934

0.021464

0.005602

0.971767

Sam Houston St.

0.949900

0.047900

0.002000

0.000200

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.052500

Robert Morris

0.884900

0.090200

0.022400

0.002300

0.000191

0.000009

0.000000

0.142709

Arkansas Pine Bluff

0.993200

0.006700

0.000100

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.006900

Midwest Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Expd Won

Kansas

0.002700

0.058100

0.099100

0.129300

0.186154

0.101675

0.422971

4.435017

Ohio St.

0.035900

0.187100

0.215800

0.412600

0.077645

0.030460

0.040495

2.562351

Georgetown

0.055300

0.417400

0.315200

0.171900

0.026128

0.008625

0.005447

1.743819

Maryland

0.073700

0.558200

0.326200

0.027100

0.010593

0.002777

0.001430

1.356738

Michigan St.

0.163300

0.253700

0.489800

0.044000

0.030014

0.010608

0.008578

1.589864

Tennessee

0.320300

0.308100

0.241700

0.109500

0.013804

0.004059

0.002537

1.210733

Oklahoma St.

0.429000

0.424000

0.091100

0.050100

0.004626

0.000897

0.000277

0.781151

Nevada Las Vegas

0.548000

0.431700

0.013000

0.005200

0.001710

0.000301

0.000089

0.482179

Northern Iowa

0.452000

0.507600

0.024500

0.011000

0.003693

0.000854

0.000353

0.610760

Georgia Tech

0.571000

0.359800

0.051900

0.016200

0.000963

0.000118

0.000020

0.516757

San Diego St.

0.679700

0.225200

0.072400

0.020800

0.001588

0.000253

0.000059

0.440372

New Mexico St.

0.836700

0.121000

0.040800

0.001300

0.000180

0.000018

0.000002

0.207323

Houston

0.926300

0.067100

0.006500

0.000100

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.080400

Ohio

0.944700

0.049300

0.005600

0.000400

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.061700

UC Santa Barbara

0.964100

0.029100

0.006300

0.000500

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.043200

Lehigh

0.997300

0.002500

0.000200

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.002900

East Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Expd Won

Kentucky

0.014100

0.153700

0.322400

0.196400

0.102965

0.129306

0.081128

2.932863

West Virginia

0.044300

0.319600

0.354800

0.161700

0.058707

0.045924

0.014969

2.068562

New Mexico

0.022100

0.348100

0.211200

0.191700

0.090846

0.091493

0.044561

2.433816

Wisconsin

0.286200

0.459000

0.183200

0.045400

0.016002

0.008525

0.001673

1.078270

Temple

0.048300

0.257900

0.336600

0.160900

0.078527

0.079164

0.038609

2.355382

Marquette

0.291000

0.423600

0.133400

0.095200

0.026065

0.023937

0.006798

1.240733

Clemson

0.760700

0.182500

0.046000

0.008900

0.001423

0.000431

0.000046

0.309323

Texas

0.351900

0.515200

0.084100

0.033400

0.009613

0.004883

0.000903

0.851890

Wake Forest

0.648100

0.318600

0.026900

0.005400

0.000771

0.000212

0.000016

0.392845

Missouri

0.239300

0.459000

0.194500

0.073700

0.017731

0.012931

0.002837

1.221706

Washington

0.709000

0.207500

0.053800

0.021800

0.004810

0.002623

0.000467

0.415657

Cornell

0.951700

0.041100

0.006800

0.000400

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.055900

Wofford

0.713800

0.242000

0.038400

0.004800

0.000784

0.000201

0.000015

0.337431

Montana

0.977900

0.020800

0.001200

0.000100

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.023500

Morgan St.

0.955700

0.038800

0.005200

0.000300

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.050100

East Tennessee St.

0.985900

0.012500

0.001500

0.000100

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.015800

West Region

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Expd Won

Syracuse

0.007500

0.073000

0.209400

0.177900

0.283400

0.077809

0.170991

3.574090

Kansas St.

0.088100

0.430600

0.301200

0.129500

0.041762

0.005861

0.002977

1.635715

Pittsburgh

0.235500

0.449200

0.126500

0.129400

0.047201

0.007102

0.005096

1.345295

Vanderbilt

0.407200

0.375100

0.175300

0.027100

0.013234

0.001458

0.000608

0.870874

Butler

0.367700

0.184900

0.282700

0.069200

0.070770

0.012198

0.012532

1.377163

Xavier

0.264900

0.212700

0.165100

0.203600

0.108080

0.020906

0.024714

1.838834

Brigham Young

0.713800

0.167900

0.081300

0.030500

0.005760

0.000569

0.000171

0.448911

Gonzaga

0.632600

0.341100

0.019300

0.005500

0.001382

0.000099

0.000019

0.402337

Florida St.

0.367400

0.579300

0.037200

0.012100

0.003634

0.000296

0.000070

0.706436

Florida

0.286200

0.325400

0.217600

0.124700

0.037712

0.005269

0.003119

1.330607

Minnesota

0.735100

0.161200

0.057700

0.037200

0.007688

0.000815

0.000297

0.424808

Texas El Paso

0.632300

0.144400

0.177600

0.025900

0.016376

0.002297

0.001127

0.661052

Murray St.

0.592800

0.295500

0.097700

0.009900

0.003706

0.000313

0.000081

0.537475

Oakland

0.764500

0.176900

0.039700

0.016500

0.002200

0.000164

0.000036

0.315636

North Texas

0.911900

0.076100

0.011000

0.001000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.101100

Vermont

0.992500

0.006600

0.000900

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.000000

0.008400

 

 

Data Sources


In order to build the data on which the updated Score Card and its rankings were developed, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy. The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Score Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 

Dance Card Authors


Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.


 

Special Thanks to SAS!!


The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Score Card. In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Faye Merrideth, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.


 

Links of Interest

 

Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com)
Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports
Kenneth Massey (mratings.com)
Inst. for Opns. Research & the Mgt. Sciences (INFORMS)
Interfaces
National Collegiate Athletics Association

 

SAS Institute Inc.
NCAA Final Four Page
University of North Florida
Coggin College of Business at UNF
Mercer University
Stetson School of Business & Economics at Mercer

 

 

E-Mail Addresses


Jay Coleman
Allen Lynch
 

Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. indicates USA registration.

Although it should go without saying, we'll say it anyway: neither of the two authors advocates using any of the enclosed information for gambling purposes, and in fact, strongly discourages its use for that purpose. 
 

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on March 17, 2010 at 2:00 p.m.

 

 

 

 

Score

Rank

Team (@=automatic bid)

Reg

Seed

Card

1

@Kansas

M

1

10.1508

2

Syracuse

W

1

9.2737

3

@Kentucky

E

1

8.9597

4

@Temple

E

5

8.4734

5

New Mexico

E

3

8.4719

6

California

S

8

8.4235

7

@Ohio St.

M

2

8.3598

8

@Duke

S

1

8.3253

9

@West Virginia

E

2

8.2458

10

Xavier

W

6

8.2383

11

@Butler

W

5

8.2056

12

Purdue

S

4

8.0655

13

Georgetown

M

3

7.9173

14

Pittsburgh

W

3

7.8618

15

Michigan St.

M

5

7.8399

16

@Old Dominion

S

11

7.7493

17

Texas A&M

S

5

7.7462

18

Kansas St.

W

2

7.6895

19

Marquette

E

6

7.6694

20

Tennessee

M

6

7.6586

21

@Siena

S

13

7.5721

22

Maryland

M

4

7.4566

23

Louisville

S

9

7.4442

24

Wisconsin

E

4

7.4130

25

Florida

W

10

7.3792

26

Missouri

E

10

7.3716

27

Baylor

S

3

7.3704

28

Texas El Paso

W

12

7.3078

29

Villanova

S

2

7.2937

30

Notre Dame

S

6

7.2702

31

Vanderbilt

W

4

7.2364

32

@Northern Iowa

M

9

7.2284

33

Utah St.

S

12

7.2246

34

Texas

E

8

7.1850

35

@Washington

E

11

7.1347

36

Richmond

S

7

6.9500

37

Minnesota

W

11

6.8617

38

Oklahoma St.

M

7

6.8253

39

Brigham Young

W

7

6.8212

40

Nevada Las Vegas

M

8

6.6800

41

Clemson

E

7

6.5712

42

@San Diego St.

M

11

6.5503

43

@Murray St.

W

13

6.5051

44

Florida St.

W

9

6.4492

45

@Oakland

W

14

6.3282

46

Gonzaga

W

8

6.2616

47

Wake Forest

E

9

6.2183

48

Georgia Tech

M

10

6.1835

49

@Wofford

E

13

6.1431

50

@St. Mary's

S

10

5.9433

51

@New Mexico St.

M

12

5.8503

52

@Cornell

E

12

5.1359

53

@North Texas

W

15

4.9960

54

@Robert Morris

S

15

4.8983

55

@Morgan St.

E

15

4.8196

56

@Ohio

M

14

4.7234

57

@UC Santa Barbara

M

15

4.7122

58

@Houston

M

13

4.5697

59

@East Tennessee St.

E

16

4.3536

60

@Montana

E

14

4.3258

61

@Sam Houston St.

S

14

4.0722

62

@Vermont

W

16

4.0385

63

@Lehigh

M

16

3.8764

64

@Arkansas Pine Bluff

S

16

2.9796