NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
CFP "FourCast"
MinV CFB Ranking
Other Sports Research
Current Ranking
Description
Performance
Author
Media Attention
Past Rankings
Acknowledgements

MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

Performance

Below is an assessment of the ranking systems posted on Kenneth Massey's ranking compilation page for this season. Using a simple form of Data Envelopment Analysis and software from Holger Scheel, each system is given an efficiency score representing how close its combined retrodictive and predictive performance is to the efficient frontier. Retrodictive performance is measured by the number of past head-to-head results that were correctly matched by the weekly ranking (the first number in the "Retrodictive" column below), while predictive performance is measured by the number of games in the following week that were correctly predicted (the first number in the "Predictive" column below). If one were to plot each system's performance, with retrodictive performance on one axis and predictive performance on the other, the efficient frontier would be formed by the most extreme systems in all possible directions.

The efficient frontier approach is an arguably fair way to compare ranking systems regardless of whether they focus on retrodictive or predictive performance (or some combination thereof). The approach determines the implicit weight that a system places on each objective, and uses these weights (shown in parenthese below) to determine the appropriate comparison point on the efficient frontier. Each system is thus evaluated only against peers with a similar combination of objectives.

Any system with 100% efficiency is on the efficient frontier, meaning that if the weights noted for that system are applied, no other system surpasses it. If a system has an efficiency less than 100%, then even if the weights noted for the system are applied, there is at least one other system (or a linear combination of other systems) whose performance is better.

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header. Results shown are for weekly rankings posted on or before December 3, 2016. Note that performance assessment will lag one week behind the most recent week of games and that the system abbreviations are the same as those used by Massey, who denotes the MinV ranking as "CMV" and the MVP ranking as "MVP."

 
                       Full Season                            Last Week              
Rnk System  Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive   Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive 
  1  CMV      100.0%   5113 (.560)  534 (.440)     100.0%    649 (1.00)   23 (.000)
  2  DOK      100.0%   4335 (.000)  555 (1.00)     87.56%    562 (.600)   22 (.400)
  3  PIG      98.91%   4470 (.180)  544 (.820)     92.70%    566 (.570)   25 (.430)
  4  ARG      98.64%   4516 (.180)  541 (.820)     88.39%    572 (.920)   21 (.080)
  5  BRN      98.60%   4358 (.180)  545 (.820)     92.70%    566 (.570)   25 (.430)
  6  FPI      98.56%   4309 (.180)  546 (.820)     89.06%    561 (.590)   23 (.410)
  7  CTW      98.23%   4413 (.180)  541 (.820)     100.0%    559 (.500)   30 (.500)
  8  DEZ      98.19%   4439 (.180)  540 (.820)     93.08%    570 (.570)   25 (.430)
  9  SOL      98.18%   4511 (.180)  538 (.820)     87.97%    569 (.920)   21 (.080)
 10  KPK      98.12%   4534 (.190)  537 (.810)     89.67%    581 (.920)   21 (.080)
 11  BMC      98.07%   4335 (.180)  542 (.820)     86.20%    559 (.920)   20 (.080)
 12  EFI      98.01%   4470 (.180)  538 (.820)     91.58%    571 (.580)   24 (.420)
 13  Con      97.92%   4559 (.190)  535 (.810)     88.82%    575 (.920)   21 (.080)
 14  BWE      97.83%   4425 (.180)  538 (.820)     87.54%    566 (.920)   21 (.080)
 15  MOR      97.78%   4374 (.180)  539 (.820)     90.36%    558 (.580)   24 (.420)
 16  SAG      97.71%   4395 (.180)  538 (.820)     89.67%    581 (.920)   21 (.080)
 17  TRP      97.68%   4314 (.180)  540 (.820)     87.18%    558 (.600)   22 (.400)
 18  ACU      97.33%   4523 (.190)  532 (.810)     89.74%    579 (.910)   22 (.090)
 19  BDF      97.25%   4318 (.180)  537 (.820)     100.0%    549 (.000)   30 (1.00)
 20  MAS      97.20%   4527 (.190)  531 (.810)     88.89%    573 (.910)   22 (.090)
 21  LAZ      97.19%   4562 (.190)  530 (.810)     89.06%    578 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 22  PAY      97.19%   4525 (.190)  531 (.810)     88.82%    575 (.920)   21 (.080)
 23  OSC      97.17%   4557 (.190)  530 (.810)     89.52%    581 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 24  DES      97.12%   4506 (.190)  531 (.810)     90.74%    579 (.600)   23 (.400)
 25  UCC      97.06%   4567 (.190)  529 (.810)     88.60%    575 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 26  DII      97.01%   4480 (.190)  531 (.810)     88.11%    570 (.920)   21 (.080)
 27  DOI      96.97%   4395 (.180)  533 (.820)     86.29%    560 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 28  BAS      96.84%   4252 (.180)  536 (.820)     87.65%    546 (.580)   23 (.420)
 29  MAR      96.80%   4427 (.180)  531 (.820)     91.49%    570 (.580)   24 (.420)
 30  NUT      96.73%   4335 (.180)  533 (.820)     88.31%    553 (.590)   23 (.410)
 31  ENG      96.56%   4443 (.180)  529 (.820)     89.34%    564 (.590)   23 (.410)
 32  RWP      96.42%   4517 (.190)  526 (.810)     89.10%    577 (.920)   21 (.080)
 33  BIL      96.25%   4623 (.190)  522 (.810)     89.53%    580 (.920)   21 (.080)
 34  DCI      96.15%   4452 (.190)  526 (.810)     96.07%    568 (.550)   27 (.450)
 35  RUD      96.02%   4567 (.190)  522 (.810)     88.96%    576 (.920)   21 (.080)
 36  LOG      96.02%   4344 (.180)  528 (.820)     88.40%    554 (.590)   23 (.410)
 37  BBT      96.01%   4415 (.180)  526 (.820)     87.56%    562 (.600)   22 (.400)
 38  KEE      95.84%   4522 (.190)  522 (.810)     88.75%    576 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 39  FEI      95.73%   4273 (.180)  528 (.820)     85.28%    550 (.910)   21 (.090)
 40  KAM      95.68%   4222 (.180)  529 (.820)     86.90%    538 (.580)   23 (.420)
 41  HOW      95.45%   4500 (.190)  520 (.810)     88.54%    573 (.920)   21 (.080)
 42  CGV      95.45%   4426 (.190)  522 (.810)     89.24%    563 (.590)   23 (.410)
 43  MVP      95.40%   4878 (1.00)  493 (.000)     100.0%    644 (.670)   25 (.330)
 44  PGH      95.08%   4591 (.190)  515 (.810)     88.44%    574 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 45  KEL      95.00%   4497 (.190)  517 (.810)     89.90%    570 (.590)   23 (.410)
 46  SFX      94.78%   4147 (.180)  525 (.820)     91.58%    537 (.550)   26 (.450)
 47  RTP      94.53%   4492 (.190)  514 (.810)     87.67%    569 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 48  PFZ      94.39%   4272 (.180)  519 (.820)     90.93%    547 (.560)   25 (.440)
 49  PIR      93.87%   3995 (.000)  521 (1.00)     88.91%    577 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 50  RTB      93.80%   4796 (1.00)  362 (.000)     98.92%    642 (1.00)   16 (.000)
 51  COL      93.60%   4521 (.190)  507 (.810)     88.29%    573 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 52  D1A      93.27%   4437 (.190)  507 (.810)     88.75%    572 (.910)   22 (.090)
 53  PPP      91.96%   4446 (.190)  498 (.810)     88.18%    568 (.910)   22 (.090)
 54  LSD      91.44%   4501 (.200)  493 (.800)     87.83%    568 (.920)   21 (.080)
 55  WOL      90.27%   3913 (.000)  501 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
 56  SOR      90.22%   4235 (.190)  492 (.810)     90.45%    587 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 57  SEL      87.83%   4491 (1.00)  412 (.000)     89.37%    580 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 58  TFG      87.81%   4265 (.200)  475 (.800)     91.39%    552 (.560)   25 (.440)
 59  DUN      87.64%   4443 (.200)  469 (.800)     90.18%    573 (.590)   23 (.410)
 60  DOL      87.62%   4480 (1.00)  407 (.000)     89.37%    580 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 61  RT       86.88%   4442 (1.00)  418 (.000)     89.03%    574 (.910)   22 (.090)
 62  RBA      85.25%   4146 (.200)  461 (.800)     84.29%    543 (.910)   21 (.090)
 63  CSL      85.18%   3979 (.190)  465 (.810)     87.21%    566 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 64  DWI      85.04%   4348 (1.00)  426 (.000)     89.80%    569 (.590)   23 (.410)
 65  BIH      84.96%   4344 (1.00)  364 (.000)     88.44%    574 (1.00)   17 (.000)
 66  HKB      84.51%   4321 (1.00)  387 (.000)     89.74%    579 (.910)   22 (.090)
 67  FMG      84.31%   4311 (1.00)  385 (.000)     89.21%    579 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 68  JNK      84.12%   4301 (1.00)  378 (.000)     88.14%    572 (1.00)   18 (.000)
 69  COF      84.08%   4299 (1.00)  380 (.000)     88.75%    576 (1.00)   18 (.000)
 70  HEN      84.06%   4298 (1.00)  380 (.000)     89.60%    578 (.910)   22 (.090)
 71  GLD      83.77%   4283 (1.00)  378 (.000)     88.54%    573 (.920)   21 (.080)
 72  STH      83.73%   4281 (1.00)  382 (.000)     89.06%    578 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 73  FAS      83.63%   4276 (1.00)  382 (.000)     88.29%    573 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 74  BCM      83.45%   4267 (1.00)  424 (.000)     85.82%    557 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 75  BOW      83.20%   4254 (1.00)  380 (.000)     89.80%    569 (.590)   23 (.410)
 76  WLK      83.12%   4250 (1.00)  388 (.000)     89.03%    574 (.910)   22 (.090)
 77  MGN      83.12%   4250 (1.00)  377 (.000)     87.98%    571 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 78  DP       83.02%   4245 (1.00)  429 (.000)     89.34%    564 (.590)   23 (.410)
 79  BSS      82.91%   4239 (1.00)  377 (.000)     88.89%    573 (.910)   22 (.090)
 80  KEN      82.87%   4237 (1.00)  382 (.000)     88.04%    567 (.910)   22 (.090)
 81  NOL      82.55%   4221 (1.00)  373 (.000)     87.69%    567 (.920)   21 (.080)
 82  MDS      81.64%   4174 (1.00)  379 (.000)     89.15%    562 (.590)   23 (.410)
 83  RSL      81.36%   4160 (1.00)  409 (.000)     86.34%    560 (.920)   20 (.080)
 84  WIL      81.34%   4159 (1.00)  334 (.000)     88.60%    575 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 85  HAT      80.95%   4039 (.200)  435 (.800)     89.10%    577 (.920)   21 (.080)
 86  ISR      80.83%   4133 (1.00)  335 (.000)     87.98%    571 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 87  ASH      80.75%   4129 (1.00)  345 (.000)     88.91%    577 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 88  MvG      80.66%   4124 (1.00)  346 (.000)     90.08%    572 (.590)   23 (.410)
 89  EZ       80.66%   4124 (1.00)  335 (.000)     88.14%    572 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 90  ABC      80.46%   4114 (1.00)  345 (.000)     88.25%    571 (.920)   21 (.080)
 91  MRK      80.25%   4103 (1.00)  333 (.000)     88.60%    575 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 92  JTR      80.05%   4093 (1.00)  351 (.000)     90.27%    574 (.590)   23 (.410)
 93  KNT      79.95%   4088 (1.00)  342 (.000)     89.62%    567 (.590)   23 (.410)
 94  WEL      79.60%   4070 (1.00)  343 (.000)     87.83%    570 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 95  ATC      79.39%   4059 (1.00)  349 (.000)     87.69%    567 (.920)   21 (.080)
 96  MJS      79.39%   4059 (1.00)  342 (.000)     87.83%    570 (1.00)   20 (.000)
 97  VRN      79.19%   4049 (1.00)  329 (.000)     86.44%    561 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 98  GBE      79.05%   4042 (1.00)  339 (.000)     87.37%    567 (1.00)   19 (.000)
 99  TPR      78.99%   4039 (1.00)  387 (.000)     91.77%    539 (.550)   26 (.450)
100  MCL      78.84%   4031 (1.00)  336 (.000)     89.43%    565 (.590)   23 (.410)
101  KLK      77.49%   3962 (1.00)  340 (.000)     85.92%    557 (.920)   20 (.080)
102  GBR      76.22%   2261 (.000)  423 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
103  S&P      75.49%   3860 (1.00)  354 (.000)     89.90%    553 (.580)   24 (.420)
104  HNL      72.81%   3723 (1.00)  314 (.000)     89.10%    577 (.920)   21 (.080)
105  RTH      71.62%   3662 (1.00)  277 (.000)     88.91%    577 (1.00)   19 (.000)
106  AND      70.58%   3609 (1.00)  273 (.000)     88.44%    574 (1.00)   20 (.000)
107  PCP      70.47%   3603 (1.00)  275 (.000)     87.52%    568 (1.00)   19 (.000)
108  LSW      69.72%   3565 (1.00)  267 (.000)     87.37%    567 (1.00)   20 (.000)
109  MCK      68.43%   3499 (1.00)  231 (.000)     93.22%    605 (1.00)   20 (.000)
110  INP      68.04%   3479 (1.00)  279 (.000)     91.58%    554 (.570)   25 (.430)
111  KRA      65.34%   3341 (1.00)  228 (.000)     88.91%    577 (1.00)   20 (.000)
112  MGS      65.05%   3326 (1.00)  231 (.000)     88.91%    577 (1.00)   19 (.000)
113  WOB      65.03%   3325 (1.00)  228 (.000)     89.10%    577 (.920)   21 (.080)
114  REW      63.95%   3270 (1.00)  229 (.000)     87.37%    567 (1.00)   20 (.000)
115  KH       63.68%   3256 (1.00)  237 (.000)     87.75%    564 (.600)   22 (.400)
116  CPA      60.72%   1474 (.000)  337 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
117  WWP      59.77%   3056 (1.00)  251 (.000)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
118  RME      58.97%   3015 (1.00)  248 (.000)     87.67%    569 (1.00)   19 (.000)
119  YCM      58.46%   2989 (1.00)  259 (.000)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
120  CPR      57.30%   1685 (.000)  318 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
121  ONV      57.27%   2928 (1.00)  192 (.000)     89.37%    580 (1.00)   19 (.000)
122  SP       53.15%   2302 (.000)  295 (1.00)     86.34%    560 (.920)   20 (.080)
123  GRR      49.21%   2516 (1.00)  156 (.000)     92.24%    561 (.570)   25 (.430)
124  PTS      49.19%   2057 (.000)  273 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
125  RFL      47.10%   2408 (1.00)  154 (.000)     87.52%    568 (1.00)   17 (.000)
126  MTN      46.65%   2385 (1.00)  175 (.000)     89.52%    581 (1.00)   19 (.000)
127  GRS      41.85%   2140 (1.00)  115 (.000)     89.24%    578 (.920)   21 (.080)
128  CI       26.17%   1338 (1.00)   83 (.000)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
129  JRT      22.14%   1132 (1.00)   32 (.000)     88.29%    573 (1.00)   19 (.000)
130  RED      12.07%     35 (.000)   67 (1.00)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
 



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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