NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
CFP "FourCast"
MinV CFB Ranking
Other Sports Research
Current Ranking
Description
Performance
Author
Media Attention
Past Rankings
Acknowledgements

MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

Performance

Below is an assessment of the ranking systems posted on Kenneth Massey's ranking compilation page for this season. Using a simple form of Data Envelopment Analysis and software from Holger Scheel, each system is given an efficiency score representing how close its combined retrodictive and predictive performance is to the efficient frontier. Retrodictive performance is measured by the number of past head-to-head results that were correctly matched by the weekly ranking (the first number in the "Retrodictive" column below), while predictive performance is measured by the number of games in the following week that were correctly predicted (the first number in the "Predictive" column below). If one were to plot each system's performance, with retrodictive performance on one axis and predictive performance on the other, the efficient frontier would be formed by the most extreme systems in all possible directions.

The efficient frontier approach is an arguably fair way to compare ranking systems regardless of whether they focus on retrodictive or predictive performance (or some combination thereof). The approach determines the implicit weight that a system places on each objective, and uses these weights (shown in parenthese below) to determine the appropriate comparison point on the efficient frontier. Each system is thus evaluated only against peers with a similar combination of objectives.

Any system with 100% efficiency is on the efficient frontier, meaning that if the weights noted for that system are applied, no other system surpasses it. If a system has an efficiency less than 100%, then even if the weights noted for the system are applied, there is at least one other system (or a linear combination of other systems) whose performance is better.

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header. Results shown are for games on or before December 2, 2017 using rankings posted through the games of the respective preceding week. Note that the system abbreviations are the same as those used by Massey, who denotes the MinV ranking as "CMV" and the MVP ranking as "MVP."

 
                       Full Season                            Last Week              
Rnk System  Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive   Efficiency Retrodictive Predictive 
  1  CMV      100.0%   4577 (.950)  536 (.050)     100.0%    662 (1.00)   11 (.000)
  2  DOK      100.0%   3932 (.000)  544 (1.00)     90.39%    577 (.720)   11 (.280)
  3  SMS      99.67%   4018 (.080)  541 (.920)     95.08%    578 (.690)   13 (.310)
  4  FPI      99.53%   3947 (.080)  541 (.920)     89.71%    571 (.720)   11 (.280)
  5  BRN      99.37%   3952 (.080)  540 (.920)     89.71%    571 (.720)   11 (.280)
  6  PIG      99.17%   4019 (.080)  538 (.920)     87.88%    575 (.740)   10 (.260)
  7  Con      98.88%   4122 (.090)  535 (.910)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
  8  DII      98.79%   4079 (.090)  535 (.910)     98.50%    588 (.670)   14 (.330)
  9  RUD      98.62%   4160 (.090)  533 (.910)     96.21%    588 (.690)   13 (.310)
 10  BWE      98.59%   3983 (.080)  535 (.920)     89.94%    573 (.720)   11 (.280)
 11  BIL      98.38%   4125 (.090)  532 (.910)     93.81%    587 (.710)   12 (.290)
 12  ARG      98.38%   4046 (.090)  533 (.910)     92.34%    574 (.700)   12 (.300)
 13  PIR      98.35%   4109 (.090)  532 (.910)     95.87%    585 (.690)   13 (.310)
 14  KAM      98.14%   3930 (.080)  533 (.920)     92.34%    574 (.700)   12 (.300)
 15  SAG      97.95%   4001 (.090)  531 (.910)     88.44%    580 (.740)   10 (.260)
 16  PAY      97.83%   4102 (.090)  529 (.910)     94.74%    575 (.690)   13 (.310)
 17  MAS      97.80%   4089 (.090)  529 (.910)     94.15%    590 (.710)   12 (.290)
 18  LAZ      97.63%   4088 (.090)  528 (.910)     94.52%    573 (.690)   13 (.310)
 19  DES      97.62%   4006 (.090)  529 (.910)     87.88%    575 (.740)   10 (.260)
 20  DCI      97.62%   4005 (.090)  529 (.910)     86.71%    574 (1.00)    9 (.000)
 21  DWI      97.38%   4050 (.090)  527 (.910)     93.25%    582 (.710)   12 (.290)
 22  KPK      97.30%   4011 (.090)  527 (.910)     95.31%    580 (.690)   13 (.310)
 23  BDF      97.16%   3867 (.080)  528 (.920)     84.89%    562 (1.00)    9 (.000)
 24  MOR      96.97%   3933 (.080)  526 (.920)     85.35%    565 (1.00)    8 (.000)
 25  CGV      96.85%   3958 (.090)  525 (.910)     93.50%    564 (.680)   13 (.320)
 26  LOG      96.33%   3954 (.090)  522 (.910)     86.86%    575 (1.00)    9 (.000)
 27  DEZ      96.25%   3996 (.090)  521 (.910)     90.17%    575 (.720)   11 (.280)
 28  HOW      96.18%   4041 (.090)  520 (.910)     94.97%    577 (.690)   13 (.310)
 29  CTW      96.03%   3971 (.090)  520 (.910)     88.33%    579 (.740)   10 (.260)
 30  PGH      95.83%   4198 (.090)  516 (.910)     96.67%    592 (.690)   13 (.310)
 31  KEL      95.71%   4057 (.090)  517 (.910)     95.08%    578 (.690)   13 (.310)
 32  BBT      95.54%   3976 (.090)  517 (.910)     92.00%    571 (.700)   12 (.300)
 33  MAR      95.41%   3997 (.090)  516 (.910)     94.18%    570 (.680)   13 (.320)
 34  RWP      95.35%   4050 (.090)  515 (.910)     95.65%    583 (.690)   13 (.310)
 35  RTP      95.34%   4125 (.090)  514 (.910)     92.31%    594 (.730)   11 (.270)
 36  ENG      95.30%   4023 (.090)  515 (.910)     93.25%    582 (.710)   12 (.290)
 37  HAT      94.84%   4128 (.090)  511 (.910)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
 38  MGS      94.51%   4132 (.090)  509 (.910)     93.13%    581 (.710)   12 (.290)
 39  RTB      93.31%   4271 (1.00)  359 (.000)     99.43%    657 (.750)   11 (.250)
 40  NUT      93.28%   3866 (.090)  505 (.910)     92.46%    575 (.700)   12 (.300)
 41  PPP      92.72%   4082 (.090)  499 (.910)     95.99%    586 (.690)   13 (.310)
 42  TPR      92.57%   3849 (.090)  501 (.910)     89.15%    566 (.720)   11 (.280)
 43  BAS      89.73%   3863 (.090)  484 (.910)     87.20%    569 (.740)   10 (.260)
 44  OSC      89.60%   3557 (.080)  487 (.920)     95.31%    580 (.690)   13 (.310)
 45  PFZ      88.85%   3600 (.080)  482 (.920)     88.25%    558 (.710)   11 (.290)
 46  ACU      88.81%   4065 (1.00)  460 (.000)     95.65%    583 (.690)   13 (.310)
 47  DOL      88.60%   4055 (1.00)  399 (.000)     96.44%    590 (.690)   13 (.310)
 48  LSD      88.55%   4053 (1.00)  459 (.000)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
 49  COL      88.44%   4048 (1.00)  431 (.000)     96.21%    588 (.690)   13 (.310)
 50  CSL      87.00%   3982 (1.00)  424 (.000)     95.99%    586 (.690)   13 (.310)
 51  BSS      86.34%   3952 (1.00)  402 (.000)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
 52  WIL      86.32%   3951 (1.00)  363 (.000)     97.23%    597 (.690)   13 (.310)
 53  JTR      86.24%   3947 (1.00)  411 (.000)     94.86%    576 (.690)   13 (.310)
 54  BIH      86.02%   3937 (1.00)  367 (.000)     97.00%    595 (.690)   13 (.310)
 55  FEI      85.46%   3754 (.090)  460 (.910)     90.87%    561 (.700)   12 (.300)
 56  FMG      85.16%   3898 (1.00)  373 (.000)     96.33%    589 (.690)   13 (.310)
 57  JNK      85.14%   3897 (1.00)  364 (.000)     96.10%    587 (.690)   13 (.310)
 58  WEL      84.68%   3876 (1.00)  361 (.000)     95.65%    583 (.690)   13 (.310)
 59  HKB      84.66%   3875 (1.00)  374 (.000)     95.76%    584 (.690)   13 (.310)
 60  PCP      84.51%   3868 (1.00)  375 (.000)     91.98%    591 (.730)   11 (.270)
 61  RME      84.33%   3860 (1.00)  363 (.000)     93.36%    583 (.710)   12 (.290)
 62  FAS      84.12%   3850 (1.00)  375 (.000)     94.97%    577 (.690)   13 (.310)
 63  RT       83.79%   3835 (1.00)  381 (.000)     92.91%    579 (.700)   12 (.300)
 64  WLK      82.81%   3790 (1.00)  379 (.000)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
 65  SOR      82.57%   3583 (.090)  445 (.910)     97.12%    596 (.690)   13 (.310)
 66  YAG      82.35%   3059 (.000)  448 (1.00)     88.47%    560 (.720)   11 (.280)
 67  SEL      81.47%   3729 (1.00)  337 (.000)     96.21%    588 (.690)   13 (.310)
 68  EZ       81.21%   3717 (1.00)  327 (.000)     97.00%    595 (.690)   13 (.310)
 69  ABC      81.12%   3713 (1.00)  331 (.000)     96.78%    593 (.690)   13 (.310)
 70  S&P      80.99%   3707 (1.00)  434 (.000)     89.97%    553 (.690)   12 (.310)
 71  ISR      80.84%   3700 (1.00)  328 (.000)     96.67%    592 (.690)   13 (.310)
 72  ASH      80.53%   3686 (1.00)  342 (.000)     95.76%    584 (.690)   13 (.310)
 73  MRK      80.45%   3682 (1.00)  329 (.000)     95.99%    586 (.690)   13 (.310)
 74  MvG      80.40%   3680 (1.00)  327 (.000)     95.76%    584 (.690)   13 (.310)
 75  COF      80.14%   3668 (1.00)  341 (.000)     95.31%    580 (.690)   13 (.310)
 76  MCK      80.10%   3666 (1.00)  294 (.000)     94.71%    627 (1.00)   10 (.000)
 77  RSL      80.05%   3664 (1.00)  374 (.000)     92.12%    572 (.700)   12 (.300)
 78  HEN      79.97%   3660 (1.00)  336 (.000)     95.42%    581 (.690)   13 (.310)
 79  MGN      79.13%   3622 (1.00)  333 (.000)     91.89%    570 (.700)   12 (.300)
 80  KEN      79.05%   3618 (1.00)  329 (.000)     94.41%    572 (.680)   13 (.320)
 81  SGR      78.50%   3593 (1.00)  335 (.000)     93.25%    582 (.710)   12 (.290)
 82  HNL      78.41%   3589 (1.00)  339 (.000)     94.86%    576 (.690)   13 (.310)
 83  SFX      77.58%   3551 (1.00)  374 (.000)     88.13%    557 (.710)   11 (.290)
 84  KLK      77.10%   3529 (1.00)  342 (.000)     92.23%    573 (.700)   12 (.300)
 85  VRN      75.66%   3463 (1.00)  291 (.000)     96.44%    590 (.690)   13 (.310)
 86  KEE      75.11%   3438 (1.00)  303 (.000)     95.54%    582 (.690)   13 (.310)
 87  LMC      75.09%   3437 (1.00)  341 (.000)     91.78%    569 (.700)   12 (.300)
 88  BMC      75.01%   3117 (.090)  406 (.910)     93.13%    581 (.710)   12 (.290)
 89  MJS      74.94%   3430 (1.00)  285 (.000)     95.42%    581 (.690)   13 (.310)
 90  GLD      74.90%   3428 (1.00)  290 (.000)     95.08%    578 (.690)   13 (.310)
 91  YCM      74.87%   3427 (1.00)  327 (.000)     94.18%    570 (.680)   13 (.320)
 92  MDS      74.46%   3408 (1.00)  289 (.000)     95.20%    579 (.690)   13 (.310)
 93  TRP      72.56%   3321 (1.00)  303 (.000)     90.28%    576 (.720)   11 (.280)
 94  BOW      70.59%   3231 (1.00)  295 (.000)     96.10%    587 (.690)   13 (.310)
 95  WOL      69.87%   3198 (1.00)  258 (.000)     96.67%    592 (.690)   13 (.310)
 96  RTH      69.83%   3196 (1.00)  257 (.000)     96.55%    591 (.690)   13 (.310)
 97  REW      69.46%   3179 (1.00)  255 (.000)     91.30%    585 (.720)   11 (.280)
 98  KNT      69.22%   3168 (1.00)  260 (.000)     96.33%    589 (.690)   13 (.310)
 99  GBE      68.71%   3145 (1.00)  254 (.000)     95.65%    583 (.690)   13 (.310)
100  PIT      68.39%   3130 (1.00)  365 (.000)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
101  LAB      67.90%   3108 (1.00)  256 (.000)     92.23%    573 (.700)   12 (.300)
102  BCM      65.94%   3018 (1.00)  302 (.000)     92.68%    577 (.700)   12 (.300)
103  MTN      61.85%   2831 (1.00)  222 (.000)     95.08%    578 (.690)   13 (.310)
104  GRR      59.71%   2733 (1.00)  218 (.000)     100.0%    581 (.000)   15 (1.00)
105  AND      54.95%   2515 (1.00)  178 (.000)     97.00%    595 (.690)   13 (.310)
106  JWN      52.33%   2395 (1.00)  180 (.000)     95.90%    565 (.670)   14 (.330)
107  DUN      51.93%   2164 (.090)  281 (.910)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
108  NGS      50.27%   2301 (1.00)  231 (.000)     91.10%    563 (.700)   12 (.300)
109  WWP      45.12%   2065 (1.00)  139 (.000)     95.31%    580 (.690)   13 (.310)
110  KH       44.19%   2010 (.100)  237 (.900)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
111  ATC      39.17%   1793 (1.00)  166 (.000)     88.56%    581 (.740)   10 (.260)
112  KRA      36.12%   1653 (1.00)   97 (.000)     97.00%    595 (.690)   13 (.310)
113  WOB      35.83%   1640 (1.00)   95 (.000)     96.78%    593 (.690)   13 (.310)
114  HUF      34.91%   1598 (1.00)   98 (.000)     92.57%    576 (.700)   12 (.300)
115  TFG      34.08%   1560 (1.00)  103 (.000)     90.42%    557 (.700)   12 (.300)
116  RBA      33.58%   1537 (1.00)   97 (.000)     87.91%    555 (.710)   11 (.290)
117  CI       32.82%   1502 (1.00)  163 (.000)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
118  SP       29.56%   1308 (.090)  159 (.910)      .          . (.   )    . (.   )
119  STH      12.54%    574 (1.00)   14 (.000)     96.92%    574 (.670)   14 (.330)
 



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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