Final MinV Ranking for the
2006 Season
At right are the rankings of all NCAA
Division 1-A college football teams thru the games of January
8, 2007
using MinV, a model developed by
Jay Coleman of the
University of North Florida. MinV generates a
ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations --
that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind
the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees
the ranking with the best retrodictive accuracy.
The ranking at right results in only
62 violations out of 714 Division 1-A games, or a
minimum violation percentage of 8.68%. In addition to minimizing
the total number of violations, the
ranking this week minimizes the total weighted
violations, where each violation is weighted by the victory
margin. (In other words, the ranking shown violates the 62 games
in which the scores were as close as possible, as opposed to
violating 62 games in which the victory margins were larger.)
The total weight (i.e., victory margins) of the 62 violated
games this week is 520 points. Finally, the ranking
shown at right at least approximately matches the game score differences (the
victory margins) as closely as mathematically possible, while
exceeding neither the minimum number of violations nor the
minimum weighted violations. Due to the size of
the problem (the number of games played thus far), MinV was not
able to guarantee that the ranking shown is the one that
optimally matches the victory margins. However, the
ranking shown is likely a reasonably close approximation.
A minimum violations ranking has never before been presented
for college football (due in part to the extreme computational
difficulty involved for a problem with 119 teams). However, there are literally
trillions of different rankings at any given point in time that
would yield the same minimum number of violations; the ranking
shown
is only one of those.
"Minimizing Game Score Violations
in College Football Rankings," an article describing MinV and its application to the 1994 through 2004 college football seasons,
appears in the November-December 2005 issue of
Interfaces,
a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences (INFORMS).
The final MinV ranking for the
2005 college football season can be found
here. The final MinV ranking for the
2004 college football season can be found
here.
The final MinV pre-NCAA
Tournament ranking for
college basketball in 2005 can be found
here.
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About the Author
Jay Coleman is the
Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management &
Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the
University of North Florida.
His research with Allen Lynch (of Mercer University) on modeling
the decisions of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee, first
published in
Interfaces,
has been featured by the Wall Street Journal,
Forbes, Investor's Business Daily, the New York
Times, the Associated Press, UPI, and USA Today, as well as
over 50 other major media outlets, including CNN Headline News, the
Sporting News, and CBS SportsLine. More information
about the NCAA Tournament model can be found at
DanceCard.unf.edu. His
research with Ken Jennings and Frank McLaughlin on final offer
arbitration in professional baseball has been published in
Cal-Berkeley's
Industrial Relations journal.
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Acknowledgements
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The author is
very grateful to
Peter Wolfe for his invaluable service of providing the
game scores used in developing the current ranking.
Special thanks also go to
Kenneth Massey
and
James Howell for providing the game scores from past seasons
that were used to develop and test the MinV model.
Kenneth Massey
deserves tremendous thanks for
compiling and
comparing the many different college football ranking
systems on the web, and for including the MinV ranking on his
site. Thanks also to
Eugene Potemkin for including the MinV ranking in his
rank of rating
systems for college football, in which the MinV ranking
consistently places very highly according to his fairness
assessment. |
|
Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu Jay Coleman's Home
Page This page last updated on
January 9, 2006 at 10:40 p.m.
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1 |
Southern Cal |
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2 |
Florida |
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3 |
Ohio State |
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4 |
Louisville |
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5 |
Michigan |
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6 |
LSU |
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7 |
West Virginia |
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8 |
Notre Dame |
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9 |
Wisconsin |
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10 |
Arkansas |
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11 |
Penn State |
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12 |
Tennessee |
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13 |
Boston College |
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14 |
California |
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15 |
Georgia |
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16 |
Auburn |
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17 |
Virginia Tech |
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18 |
South Carolina |
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19 |
Kentucky |
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20 |
Clemson |
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21 |
Texas |
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22 |
Boise St |
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23 |
Wake Forest |
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24 |
Georgia Tech |
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25 |
Maryland |
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26 |
Florida St |
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27 |
Washington St |
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28 |
UCLA |
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29 |
Oregon St |
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30 |
Arizona |
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31 |
Brigham Young |
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32 |
Oregon |
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33 |
Oklahoma |
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34 |
Nebraska |
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35 |
Cincinnati |
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36 |
Rutgers |
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37 |
Texas A&M |
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38 |
Missouri |
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39 |
Utah |
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40 |
TCU |
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41 |
Texas Tech |
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42 |
Central Michigan |
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43 |
Troy |
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44 |
Middle Tennessee St |
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45 |
Louisiana-Lafayette |
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46 |
Houston |
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47 |
Oklahoma St |
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48 |
Alabama |
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49 |
Hawai`i |
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50 |
Purdue |
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51 |
Minnesota |
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52 |
Mississippi |
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53 |
Vanderbilt |
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54 |
Baylor |
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55 |
Rice |
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56 |
Kansas |
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57 |
Tulsa |
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58 |
Kansas St |
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59 |
Navy |
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60 |
South Florida |
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61 |
East Carolina |
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62 |
Connecticut |
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63 |
Indiana |
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64 |
Southern Miss |
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65 |
Michigan St |
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66 |
Ohio U. |
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67 |
Pittsburgh |
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68 |
Western Michigan |
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69 |
Virginia |
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70 |
Arizona St |
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71 |
Miami FL |
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72 |
Nevada |
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73 |
Northwestern |
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74 |
Iowa |
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75 |
Northern Illinois |
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76 |
Syracuse |
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77 |
Illinois |
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78 |
SMU |
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79 |
Stanford |
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80 |
Washington |
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81 |
San José St |
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82 |
Ball St |
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83 |
Air Force |
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84 |
Wyoming |
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85 |
Florida Atlantic |
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86 |
Arkansas St |
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87 |
Louisiana-Monroe |
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88 |
Central Florida |
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89 |
Marshall |
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90 |
Memphis |
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91 |
New Mexico |
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92 |
UTEP |
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93 |
San Diego St |
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94 |
Tulane |
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95 |
Army |
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96 |
Colorado St |
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97 |
Mississippi St |
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98 |
Alabama-Birmingham |
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99 |
Colorado |
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100 |
Kent St |
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101 |
Eastern Michigan |
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102 |
Iowa St |
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103 |
North Carolina |
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104 |
Toledo |
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105 |
Akron |
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106 |
Miami OH |
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107 |
North Carolina St |
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108 |
Fresno St |
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109 |
Duke |
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110 |
UNLV |
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111 |
Idaho |
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112 |
New Mexico St |
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113 |
Temple |
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114 |
Bowling Green |
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115 |
Buffalo |
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116 |
Louisiana Tech |
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117 |
North Texas |
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118 |
Florida Int'l |
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119 |
Utah St |
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