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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of September 9, 2017 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 90 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 0.00%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 100.00% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 90 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 0.00%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
94.05%
6.47%
6.80
Clemson
2
2
55.06%
9.21%
7.04
Oklahoma
3
3
97.07%
6.32%
7.82
LSU
4
4
52.44%
2.15%
7.11
Ohio State
5
5
95.63%
8.47%
8.06
Oklahoma St
6
6
65.29%
3.44%
7.26
Southern Cal
7
7
82.53%
6.07%
7.71
Washington
8
8
97.81%
8.00%
7.93
Michigan
9
9
90.00%
3.51%
7.42
Penn State
10
10
98.70%
3.85%
7.52
Auburn
11
11
N/A
3.36%
6.42
Florida St
12
12
67.69%
2.04%
6.14
Wisconsin
13
13
75.33%
6.95%
7.76
Stanford
14
14
70.13%
2.91%
7.18
Kansas St
15
15
74.71%
1.41%
6.82
Louisville
16
16
44.94%
5.21%
6.83
Mississippi St
17
17
47.56%
0.69%
6.48
Virginia Tech
18
18
93.82%
2.80%
7.27
TCU
19
19
93.53%
0.39%
6.34
Florida
20
20
67.41%
2.13%
7.00
Georgia
21
21
N/A
0.95%
5.68
Notre Dame
22
22
85.74%
0.90%
6.62
West Virginia
23
23
N/A
0.57%
5.54
Miami FL
24
24
32.31%
0.88%
6.53
Washington St
25
25
95.73%
0.28%
5.99
Iowa
26
26
97.95%
0.45%
6.27
Tennessee
27
27
32.59%
0.38%
6.39
Colorado
28
28
N/A
0.48%
5.33
Utah
29
29
97.95%
0.13%
5.76
Michigan St
30
30
N/A
0.07%
5.45
Georgia Tech
31
31
64.32%
0.09%
5.41
Duke
32
32
81.91%
0.28%
5.83
UCLA
33
33
56.11%
0.03%
5.08
Pittsburgh
34
34
34.71%
0.23%
5.95
Texas A&M
35
35
95.07%
0.05%
5.36
Oregon
36
36
78.49%
0.17%
5.94
Minnesota
37
37
93.45%
0.26%
6.10
Maryland
38
38
N/A
0.00%
3.23
Texas
39
39
17.47%
0.01%
4.46
Western Michigan
40
40
96.16%
23.27%
7.75
Boise St
41
41
91.70%
4.83%
7.59
Texas Tech
42
42
86.52%
0.01%
5.43
Houston
43
43
96.53%
2.87%
7.19
Mississippi
44
44
40.50%
0.01%
4.62
California
45
45
59.50%
0.00%
4.24
North Carolina
46
46
81.54%
0.09%
4.48
South Carolina
47
47
76.25%
0.03%
4.17
North Carolina St
48
48
N/A
0.01%
3.74
San Diego St
49
49
29.87%
2.97%
7.44
Memphis
50
50
43.89%
1.96%
6.20
Tulsa
51
51
46.46%
1.10%
6.54
Wake Forest
52
52
89.41%
0.00%
4.14
Indiana
53
53
95.79%
0.02%
5.20
Brigham Young
54
54
24.67%
0.54%
6.79
Nebraska
55
55
77.95%
0.01%
4.54
Air Force
56
56
10.00%
0.09%
6.68
Vanderbilt
57
57
25.29%
0.00%
3.80
South Florida
58
58
77.41%
2.55%
6.17
Illinois
59
59
22.59%
0.00%
2.87
Western Kentucky
60
60
77.46%
9.15%
8.08
Iowa St
61
61
86.52%
0.00%
3.77
Arkansas
62
62
N/A
0.00%
4.18
Central Florida
63
63
35.68%
0.61%
5.36
Northwestern
64
64
90.08%
0.01%
4.30
Toledo
65
65
53.54%
0.56%
6.58
Navy
66
66
N/A
0.02%
4.74
Texas-San Antonio
67
67
N/A
6.96%
6.84
Baylor
68
68
18.09%
0.00%
2.91
Colorado St
69
69
5.95%
0.21%
5.50
Appalachian St
70
70
88.07%
12.38%
8.22
Purdue
71
71
50.73%
0.00%
4.02
Temple
72
72
91.44%
0.19%
5.74
Kentucky
73
73
23.75%
0.00%
3.18
Arkansas St
74
74
N/A
6.81%
6.79
Arizona
75
75
83.19%
0.00%
3.24
Missouri
76
76
49.27%
0.00%
3.49
Army
77
77
4.37%
0.01%
5.05
Boston College
78
78
14.26%
0.00%
3.27
Northern Illinois
79
79
22.05%
0.03%
5.18
Louisiana Tech
80
80
22.54%
0.38%
6.42
Arizona St
81
81
13.48%
0.00%
2.08
Southern Miss
82
82
74.28%
0.28%
6.51
Wyoming
83
83
21.51%
0.04%
5.52
Troy
84
84
67.04%
0.16%
6.63
SMU
85
85
6.47%
0.00%
3.79
Tulane
86
86
2.93%
0.00%
3.84
Virginia
87
87
83.10%
0.00%
2.24
Cincinnati
88
88
54.08%
0.02%
4.67
Middle Tennessee St
89
89
6.55%
0.03%
5.59
Syracuse
90
90
64.61%
0.00%
1.91
Old Dominion
91
91
18.46%
0.02%
5.36
Ohio U.
92
92
79.19%
0.42%
5.99
Ball St
93
93
N/A
0.01%
3.93
New Mexico St
94
94
32.96%
0.00%
3.86
New Mexico
95
95
8.30%
0.00%
2.95
Central Michigan
96
96
35.39%
0.00%
4.07
Nevada
97
97
N/A
0.00%
3.27
Georgia Southern
98
98
N/A
0.01%
4.81
Eastern Michigan
99
99
N/A
0.00%
3.66
Fresno St
100
100
2.19%
0.00%
3.69
Oregon St
101
101
4.27%
0.00%
1.06
Utah St
102
102
10.59%
0.00%
3.41
UNLV
103
103
N/A
0.00%
3.65
Rutgers
104
104
N/A
0.00%
1.05
East Carolina
105
105
6.18%
0.00%
2.48
Louisiana-Lafayette
106
106
4.93%
0.00%
4.09
Marshall
107
107
67.96%
0.00%
4.14
Miami OH
108
108
45.92%
0.00%
4.53
South Alabama
109
109
N/A
0.03%
4.00
Bowling Green
110
110
9.92%
0.00%
3.71
Buffalo
111
111
N/A
0.01%
3.51
Hawai`i
112
112
N/A
0.00%
2.65
Florida Atlantic
113
113
N/A
0.01%
3.79
Georgia St
114
114
1.30%
0.00%
4.07
Idaho
115
115
3.84%
0.00%
3.35
Kent St
116
116
32.04%
0.00%
3.05
Kansas
117
117
20.81%
0.00%
0.67
Akron
118
118
13.48%
0.00%
2.86
Alabama-Birmingham
119
119
70.21%
0.00%
3.87
Connecticut
120
120
16.90%
0.00%
1.77
Coastal Carolina
121
121
29.79%
0.00%
2.61
Massachusetts
122
122
8.56%
0.00%
1.17
Louisiana-Monroe
123
123
25.72%
0.00%
3.25
Rice
124
124
3.47%
0.00%
2.70
North Texas
125
125
2.05%
0.00%
3.02
San Josť St
126
126
2.05%
0.00%
1.91
Florida Int'l
127
127
4.21%
0.00%
2.57
UNC-Charlotte
128
128
N/A
0.00%
2.91
UTEP
129
129
16.81%
0.00%
1.92
Texas St-San Marcos
130
130
11.94%
0.00%
2.60


This page last updated on September 13, 2017 at 2:45 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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