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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of November 11, 2017 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 40 violations out of 597 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 6.70%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 93.30% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 41 violations out of 597 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 6.87%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
N/A
44.53%
0.45
Oklahoma
2
2
97.72%
75.82%
1.75
Ohio State
3
3
98.08%
50.92%
1.50
Clemson
4
4
N/A
71.73%
0.72
Miami FL
5
5
94.20%
71.03%
1.70
Wisconsin
6
6
66.51%
47.09%
1.37
TCU
7
7
65.11%
60.16%
1.58
Oklahoma St
8
8
80.72%
79.76%
1.80
Washington St
9
9
N/A
26.15%
0.26
Boise St
10
10
91.39%
72.67%
1.71
Troy
11
11
N/A
30.69%
1.23
LSU
12
12
81.82%
52.86%
1.46
Auburn
13
13
98.95%
54.89%
1.54
Georgia
14
14
92.09%
48.94%
1.45
Notre Dame
15
15
91.11%
39.80%
1.35
Michigan St
16
16
87.19%
70.10%
1.68
Penn State
17
17
94.31%
85.86%
1.85
Southern Cal
18
18
85.02%
85.02%
0.85
Michigan
19
19
33.49%
16.10%
0.82
Georgia Tech
20
20
71.73%
33.61%
1.19
Virginia Tech
21
21
83.70%
70.49%
1.68
San Diego St
22
22
90.65%
85.98%
1.85
Stanford
23
23
85.38%
48.08%
1.42
Mississippi St
24
24
84.26%
72.89%
1.71
Northwestern
25
25
71.06%
63.41%
1.60
Iowa
26
26
79.67%
63.36%
1.59
Central Florida
27
27
80.86%
59.16%
1.54
Maryland
28
28
12.81%
1.15%
0.22
Texas
29
29
43.33%
31.86%
1.17
West Virginia
30
30
56.67%
12.70%
0.79
Iowa St
31
31
77.78%
39.97%
1.29
Texas Tech
32
32
34.89%
9.24%
0.61
Arizona St
33
33
72.61%
33.41%
1.19
Washington
34
34
81.38%
60.10%
1.55
Memphis
35
35
85.54%
82.05%
1.81
Houston
36
36
77.97%
56.56%
1.51
Utah
36
36
18.62%
14.13%
0.95
Arizona
38
38
49.79%
26.88%
1.04
UCLA
39
39
14.98%
9.23%
0.77
Kentucky
40
40
7.91%
2.47%
0.39
Texas A&M
40
40
68.25%
24.15%
1.04
South Carolina
42
42
N/A
28.27%
0.28
North Carolina St
43
43
43.83%
38.06%
1.31
Wake Forest
44
44
56.17%
46.70%
1.39
Boston College
45
45
95.42%
53.42%
1.51
Louisville
46
46
75.70%
52.10%
1.45
Florida St
47
47
N/A
58.31%
0.58
South Florida
48
48
88.77%
23.83%
1.16
Purdue
49
66
20.33%
14.07%
0.90
Minnesota
50
49
28.94%
8.45%
0.58
Missouri
51
67
75.07%
51.07%
1.43
Oregon
52
50
50.21%
43.99%
1.38
Colorado
53
51
N/A
24.10%
0.24
California
54
52
14.62%
5.61%
0.53
Arkansas
55
53
15.74%
5.03%
0.48
Florida
56
68
87.91%
36.65%
1.30
Mississippi
56
54
31.75%
4.29%
0.45
Vanderbilt
58
69
24.93%
7.49%
0.55
Kansas St
59
70
19.28%
9.38%
0.68
Indiana
60
55
80.87%
24.91%
1.12
Ohio U.
61
58
77.22%
58.73%
1.53
Toledo
62
56
84.11%
48.62%
1.42
Army
63
61
74.03%
36.68%
1.24
Temple
64
71
19.14%
9.58%
0.69
Navy
65
72
8.89%
1.23%
0.87
Florida Atlantic
66
74
90.24%
77.11%
1.76
SMU
66
77
14.46%
10.84%
0.89
North Texas
68
79
25.97%
15.86%
0.87
Alabama-Birmingham
69
81
12.09%
9.87%
0.94
Marshall
69
75
53.05%
38.98%
1.27
Cincinnati
71
107
49.46%
35.82%
1.22
Middle Tennessee St
71
82
28.62%
18.75%
0.94
Miami OH
73
124
44.52%
27.59%
1.06
Syracuse
73
83
24.30%
10.70%
0.68
Akron
75
59
22.78%
17.00%
0.97
Central Michigan
75
57
74.61%
31.73%
1.17
Pittsburgh
75
84
16.30%
4.01%
0.41
Virginia
78
85
5.80%
0.92%
0.22
Western Michigan
78
60
46.28%
19.53%
0.88
Duke
80
86
28.27%
4.77%
0.45
North Carolina
81
87
N/A
13.16%
0.13
Northern Illinois
82
61
53.72%
30.87%
1.11
Wyoming
83
88
70.16%
61.01%
1.57
Nebraska
84
63
5.69%
1.17%
0.26
Air Force
85
89
8.61%
4.89%
0.65
Colorado St
86
90
93.14%
93.14%
0.93
Tennessee
87
91
18.18%
12.72%
0.88
Southern Miss
88
93
78.64%
20.86%
1.05
Georgia St
89
97
N/A
22.77%
0.98
Louisiana Tech
89
97
67.95%
41.22%
1.29
South Alabama
91
99
56.13%
26.49%
1.03
Arkansas St
92
100
90.81%
45.33%
2.33
Utah St
93
101
86.46%
37.38%
1.30
UNLV
94
102
56.46%
22.89%
0.97
Fresno St
95
103
29.84%
6.11%
0.50
Eastern Michigan
96
63
55.48%
45.92%
1.38
Rutgers
97
65
19.13%
3.75%
0.39
Louisiana-Monroe
98
104
1.05%
0.25%
0.25
Appalachian St
99
105
N/A
49.63%
1.42
Oregon St
100
106
27.39%
3.39%
0.40
Illinois
101
75
1.92%
0.21%
0.13
Western Kentucky
102
77
71.38%
42.84%
1.31
Old Dominion
103
91
71.02%
24.51%
1.06
Florida Int'l
104
93
9.76%
3.90%
0.50
Texas-San Antonio
105
95
46.95%
18.47%
0.86
Baylor
106
96
22.22%
1.69%
0.30
Tulane
107
108
22.03%
5.51%
0.47
East Carolina
108
109
50.54%
2.06%
0.55
New Mexico St
108
109
41.45%
13.24%
1.55
Connecticut
110
111
4.58%
1.26%
0.32
New Mexico
110
111
43.54%
2.24%
0.49
Tulsa
112
113
11.23%
5.61%
0.61
Louisiana-Lafayette
113
114
58.55%
7.94%
1.46
Idaho
114
115
74.06%
11.61%
1.53
Nevada
114
115
9.35%
5.56%
0.69
Texas St-San Marcos
114
115
9.19%
1.04%
0.20
Coastal Carolina
117
118
25.94%
13.65%
0.79
Hawai`i
117
118
13.54%
5.03%
0.51
Massachusetts
119
120
41.45%
41.45%
0.41
Brigham Young
120
121
58.55%
36.81%
1.21
Buffalo
121
73
59.95%
14.35%
0.84
Bowling Green
122
122
15.89%
2.74%
0.33
Kansas
123
125
2.28%
0.03%
0.03
Georgia Southern
124
126
43.87%
6.88%
1.24
UNC-Charlotte
125
127
21.36%
3.11%
0.36
Kent St
126
123
25.39%
6.45%
0.51
Rice
127
128
28.98%
11.28%
0.68
Ball St
128
79
40.05%
15.23%
0.78
UTEP
129
129
32.05%
5.87%
0.50
San Josť St
130
130
6.86%
0.89%
0.20


This page last updated on November 14, 2017 at 4:45 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

Disclaimer