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MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of December 2, 2017 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 61 violations out of 735 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 8.30%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 91.70% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 66 violations out of 735 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 8.98%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Oklahoma
1
1
50.28%
50.28%
0.50
Ohio State
2
2
61.93%
61.93%
0.62
Clemson
3
3
50.78%
50.78%
0.51
Auburn
4
4
62.00%
62.00%
0.62
Alabama
5
5
49.22%
49.22%
0.49
Georgia
6
6
49.72%
49.72%
0.50
Wisconsin
7
7
52.27%
52.27%
0.52
TCU
8
8
52.60%
52.60%
0.53
Oklahoma St
9
9
56.56%
56.56%
0.57
Miami FL
10
16
47.73%
47.73%
0.48
Northwestern
11
17
88.01%
88.01%
0.88
Notre Dame
11
17
49.29%
49.29%
0.49
Washington St
11
10
54.82%
54.82%
0.55
Michigan St
14
19
45.18%
45.18%
0.45
Southern Cal
14
11
38.07%
38.07%
0.38
Penn State
16
20
53.23%
53.23%
0.53
Michigan
17
21
75.75%
75.75%
0.76
Virginia Tech
18
22
43.44%
43.44%
0.43
Central Florida
19
30
38.00%
38.00%
0.38
Maryland
20
31
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas
21
32
65.94%
65.94%
0.66
Wake Forest
22
23
50.18%
50.18%
0.50
North Carolina St
23
24
69.15%
69.15%
0.69
Boston College
24
35
39.92%
39.92%
0.40
Louisville
25
25
56.14%
56.14%
0.56
Mississippi St
26
50
43.86%
43.86%
0.44
Purdue
26
27
63.42%
63.42%
0.63
Iowa
28
29
60.08%
60.08%
0.60
West Virginia
29
36
42.37%
42.37%
0.42
Kansas St
30
37
62.12%
62.12%
0.62
Iowa St
31
38
40.67%
40.67%
0.41
Memphis
32
39
59.33%
59.33%
0.59
Florida St
33
40
88.57%
88.57%
0.89
Texas Tech
34
41
53.36%
53.36%
0.53
Houston
35
42
63.40%
63.40%
0.63
South Florida
36
43
46.64%
46.64%
0.47
Temple
37
57
73.86%
73.86%
0.74
Indiana
38
54
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Navy
38
58
63.45%
63.45%
1.22
Virginia
40
59
36.55%
36.55%
0.37
Boise St
41
61
43.42%
43.42%
0.43
San Diego St
42
11
67.67%
67.67%
0.68
Troy
42
14
79.62%
79.62%
0.80
LSU
44
15
50.71%
50.71%
0.51
Stanford
44
13
47.40%
47.40%
0.47
Arizona St
46
25
30.85%
30.85%
0.31
Washington
47
27
46.77%
46.77%
0.47
Oregon
48
33
56.59%
56.59%
0.57
Utah
49
34
57.63%
57.63%
0.58
Arizona
50
43
36.58%
36.58%
0.37
UCLA
51
45
37.88%
37.88%
0.38
Texas A&M
52
46
49.82%
49.82%
0.50
Colorado
53
46
N/A
100.0%
0.00
California
54
48
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Mississippi
55
49
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kentucky
56
51
11.99%
11.99%
0.12
South Carolina
57
52
24.25%
24.25%
0.24
Missouri
58
53
34.06%
34.06%
0.34
Toledo
58
55
65.07%
65.07%
0.65
Florida Atlantic
60
59
86.58%
86.58%
0.87
Florida Int'l
61
61
26.14%
26.14%
0.26
SMU
61
61
63.79%
63.79%
0.64
Florida
63
56
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Texas
63
64
20.38%
20.38%
0.20
Tulane
63
64
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Army
66
66
32.33%
32.33%
0.74
Vanderbilt
66
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Duke
68
69
73.19%
73.19%
0.73
Tennessee
68
69
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Tech
70
71
N/A
100.0%
0.00
North Carolina
71
72
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Minnesota
72
66
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Arkansas
73
73
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Fresno St
74
74
36.60%
36.60%
0.37
Central Michigan
75
75
52.07%
52.07%
0.52
Akron
76
76
13.42%
13.42%
0.13
Northern Illinois
76
76
26.81%
26.81%
0.27
Nebraska
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Western Michigan
78
78
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Wyoming
80
80
47.93%
47.93%
0.48
Air Force
81
81
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Colorado St
82
82
62.41%
62.41%
0.62
Utah St
83
83
81.13%
81.13%
0.81
Buffalo
84
84
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ohio U.
85
85
73.71%
73.71%
0.74
Alabama-Birmingham
86
86
26.29%
26.29%
0.26
Southern Miss
87
87
11.43%
11.43%
0.11
Eastern Michigan
88
88
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana Tech
88
88
36.21%
36.21%
0.36
Arkansas St
90
90
69.13%
69.13%
0.69
Rutgers
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas-San Antonio
90
90
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Baylor
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Illinois
93
93
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Marshall
93
93
37.59%
37.59%
0.38
Western Kentucky
96
96
60.90%
60.90%
0.61
Middle Tennessee St
97
97
30.87%
30.87%
0.31
Syracuse
98
98
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Pittsburgh
99
99
N/A
100.0%
0.00
East Carolina
100
100
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Brigham Young
101
101
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Nevada
102
102
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNLV
103
103
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Hawai`i
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Old Dominion
104
104
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Monroe
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Massachusetts
106
106
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Appalachian St
108
108
34.93%
34.93%
0.35
Cincinnati
109
109
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico St
109
109
18.87%
18.87%
0.19
Connecticut
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
New Mexico
111
111
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Tulsa
113
113
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Bowling Green
114
114
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kent St
115
115
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Miami OH
116
116
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Oregon St
117
117
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia St
118
118
39.10%
39.10%
0.39
Coastal Carolina
119
119
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Georgia Southern
120
120
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Louisiana-Lafayette
121
121
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Idaho
122
122
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Kansas
123
123
N/A
100.0%
0.00
South Alabama
124
124
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Rice
125
125
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UNC-Charlotte
126
126
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Ball St
127
127
N/A
100.0%
0.00
San Josť St
128
128
N/A
100.0%
0.00
Texas St-San Marcos
129
129
N/A
100.0%
0.00
UTEP
130
130
N/A
100.0%
0.00


This page last updated on December 11, 2017 at 1:51 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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