NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
CFP "FourCast"
MinV CFB Ranking
Other Sports Research
Current Ranking
Description
Performance
Author
Media Attention
Past Rankings
Acknowledgements

MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of September 24, 2016 using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 194 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 0.00%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 100.00% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 2 violations out of 194 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 1.03%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
97.20%
8.08%
4.99
Ohio State
2
2
97.32%
12.76%
7.31
Stanford
3
3
50.47%
10.30%
7.13
Michigan
4
4
65.92%
8.25%
6.13
Louisville
5
5
40.84%
9.43%
6.28
Houston
6
6
96.90%
20.86%
6.75
Florida St
7
7
70.08%
7.17%
5.89
Mississippi
8
8
70.69%
4.18%
5.58
Clemson
9
9
59.16%
15.09%
6.48
Oklahoma
10
10
46.53%
5.96%
6.72
Texas A&M
11
11
83.66%
5.58%
5.84
Wisconsin
12
12
34.08%
4.13%
5.67
Baylor
13
13
83.51%
3.38%
5.47
Arkansas
14
14
N/A
1.19%
3.78
TCU
15
15
53.47%
3.50%
5.45
Tennessee
16
16
64.14%
3.99%
4.71
Virginia Tech
17
17
N/A
7.68%
5.89
Washington
18
18
49.53%
2.80%
5.25
Memphis
19
19
29.31%
4.80%
6.80
Auburn
20
20
98.01%
1.48%
4.27
LSU
21
21
78.38%
0.72%
4.69
UCLA
22
22
83.82%
2.88%
5.24
Utah
23
23
59.71%
1.71%
4.95
Nebraska
24
24
93.40%
1.31%
5.32
West Virginia
25
25
65.94%
0.70%
5.37
Georgia
26
26
35.86%
0.78%
4.67
North Carolina
27
27
29.92%
1.67%
4.10
Iowa
28
28
81.87%
3.54%
5.46
Florida
29
29
77.22%
1.74%
4.20
Colorado
30
30
87.96%
0.08%
3.70
Oregon
31
31
48.07%
0.48%
4.28
Miami FL
32
32
53.88%
0.51%
5.21
Southern Cal
33
33
69.72%
1.09%
4.78
Toledo
34
34
50.30%
12.98%
7.40
Boise St
35
35
90.68%
27.68%
7.88
Kansas St
36
36
34.06%
0.08%
4.70
Washington St
37
37
51.93%
0.15%
4.77
Michigan St
38
38
68.84%
0.83%
5.67
Western Michigan
39
39
65.98%
18.87%
6.62
Arizona St
40
42
30.28%
0.05%
3.29
Brigham Young
41
43
49.70%
1.89%
4.25
South Florida
42
44
66.18%
3.86%
5.73
Texas Tech
43
46
96.11%
0.02%
3.98
Georgia Tech
44
47
46.12%
0.17%
4.03
Missouri
45
48
21.62%
0.15%
4.15
San Diego St
46
49
86.20%
28.85%
7.87
California
47
51
40.29%
0.03%
3.10
Texas
48
53
33.60%
0.03%
4.05
Navy
49
55
44.10%
0.07%
4.43
Northwestern
49
56
18.13%
0.01%
3.42
Wake Forest
49
67
20.64%
0.00%
3.00
Duke
52
68
64.96%
0.00%
2.81
Tulane
52
108
38.97%
0.00%
2.18
Georgia Southern
54
49
N/A
0.04%
3.96
Louisiana-Lafayette
54
109
59.78%
0.02%
3.44
Notre Dame
54
69
81.24%
0.27%
4.13
South Alabama
57
51
13.80%
0.00%
3.08
Syracuse
57
70
18.76%
0.00%
1.64
Connecticut
59
71
3.10%
0.00%
3.07
Mississippi St
59
53
N/A
0.03%
2.51
Virginia
61
72
35.04%
0.00%
2.29
Central Michigan
62
40
34.02%
1.13%
5.21
Oklahoma St
63
41
66.40%
0.26%
4.38
Pittsburgh
64
45
87.70%
0.27%
4.42
Arizona
65
57
16.18%
0.00%
2.63
Air Force
66
58
55.90%
4.17%
6.56
Troy
67
59
84.73%
10.28%
6.11
Southern Miss
68
60
91.76%
2.65%
5.82
Kentucky
69
61
2.80%
0.00%
1.20
South Carolina
70
62
16.34%
0.01%
2.35
East Carolina
71
63
79.08%
0.32%
4.28
Vanderbilt
71
63
22.78%
0.00%
1.55
North Carolina St
73
65
79.36%
0.01%
4.12
Western Kentucky
73
65
N/A
15.47%
5.49
Appalachian St
75
73
83.35%
8.87%
6.14
Minnesota
76
74
42.93%
0.01%
4.07
Penn State
77
75
57.07%
0.05%
3.49
Iowa St
78
76
16.49%
0.00%
2.41
Middle Tennessee St
79
77
78.10%
1.17%
5.15
Louisiana Tech
80
78
92.58%
6.77%
5.99
Tulsa
81
79
N/A
0.02%
3.94
Indiana
82
80
31.16%
0.00%
3.35
Cincinnati
83
81
33.82%
0.06%
3.40
Maryland
84
82
71.40%
0.00%
3.23
Boston College
85
83
83.21%
0.00%
2.80
Utah St
86
84
9.32%
0.03%
3.72
Purdue
87
85
28.60%
0.00%
2.22
Nevada
88
86
65.25%
0.51%
4.39
Buffalo
89
87
16.79%
0.00%
3.09
Army
90
88
N/A
0.11%
2.23
Temple
91
89
80.90%
0.12%
4.07
Akron
92
90
65.75%
0.15%
4.07
Marshall
93
91
12.30%
0.12%
4.99
Illinois
94
92
6.60%
0.00%
2.09
Rutgers
95
93
2.68%
0.00%
2.20
Oregon St
96
94
12.04%
0.00%
1.29
Texas St-San Marcos
97
95
N/A
0.00%
2.68
Ohio U.
98
96
55.16%
0.13%
4.37
Central Florida
99
97
20.92%
0.00%
2.51
Bowling Green
100
98
68.90%
0.01%
3.38
Colorado St
101
99
68.77%
0.01%
3.30
Eastern Michigan
101
99
31.10%
0.00%
1.86
Wyoming
103
101
31.23%
0.00%
2.16
Northern Illinois
104
102
42.07%
0.02%
3.59
Ball St
105
103
57.93%
0.01%
3.26
Georgia St
106
104
16.65%
0.13%
4.04
UTEP
107
109
7.42%
0.03%
2.62
New Mexico St
108
111
40.22%
0.00%
2.08
New Mexico
109
112
66.58%
0.02%
4.03
Arkansas St
110
105
N/A
0.18%
4.03
Massachusetts
111
106
61.03%
0.00%
2.22
SMU
112
107
19.10%
0.00%
1.35
Miami OH
113
113
44.84%
0.09%
3.50
San Josť St
114
114
33.42%
0.00%
2.81
Fresno St
115
115
42.32%
0.01%
2.82
Old Dominion
116
116
56.75%
0.03%
3.48
Idaho
117
117
15.27%
0.00%
2.69
UNLV
118
118
57.68%
0.00%
3.00
Texas-San Antonio
119
119
N/A
0.00%
3.04
Louisiana-Monroe
120
120
1.99%
0.00%
3.35
Florida Atlantic
121
121
50.25%
0.02%
3.37
Kent St
122
122
34.25%
0.00%
2.32
North Texas
123
123
21.90%
0.00%
1.75
Rice
124
124
8.24%
0.00%
2.47
Kansas
125
125
3.89%
0.00%
0.47
Hawai`i
126
126
34.75%
0.00%
2.45
Florida Int'l
127
127
49.75%
0.00%
2.24
UNC-Charlotte
128
128
43.25%
0.00%
2.43


This page last updated on September 27, 2016 at 3:55 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

Disclaimer