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Acknowledgements

MinV and MVP College Football Rankings

   

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I-A (Football Bowl Subdivision) teams through the games of August 26, 2016 (i.e., preseason) using MinV and MinV-Predictive (MVP), models developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida.

MinV is a ranking that minimizes the number of game score violations -- that is, the number of times a game's winner is ranked behind the team it defeated. In other words, MinV guarantees the best match to the head-to-head results thus far (i.e., it's the best possible match to past games).

MVP is designed to predict future games, and matches the past head-to-head results as closely as possible without altering its game predictions for the upcoming week. MVP is expected to predict better than MinV -- and as well or better than any other ranking system available -- while approximating (but not necessarily guaranteeing) the minimum number of violations.

The MinV ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 0 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) games played during the season, or a minimum violation percentage of 0.00%. Stated otherwise, the ranking below matches the results of 100.00% of the games played, the highest value possible. The MVP ranking shown below results in 0 violations out of 0 FBS games played thus far, a violation percentage of 0.00%.

Also included below is the chance each team will win this week, as well as the chance it will win out and the predicted number of wins it will have in its remaining regular-season games. Games against non-FBS opponents are not included in these values, which take into account home-field advantage, whereas predicting games just using the positions of teams in one of the rankings does not. Projections are derived using the purely predictive meta-model that is employed as MinV's secondary objective and MVP's primary objective (see the "Description" tab above).

Columns can be sorted from high to low by clicking on the column header.

Team
MinV Rank
MVP Rank
This Week
Win Out
Wins Left
Alabama
1
1
67.86%
1.43%
7.76
Oklahoma
2
2
57.30%
2.82%
9.15
Clemson
3
3
60.26%
10.83%
9.14
Ohio State
4
4
89.98%
4.03%
9.51
Stanford
5
5
88.25%
2.22%
9.02
Mississippi
6
6
58.91%
1.25%
7.61
Baylor
7
7
N/A
4.29%
8.59
TCU
8
8
N/A
2.69%
8.22
Arkansas
9
9
94.22%
0.82%
7.40
Michigan
10
10
98.96%
3.54%
9.58
Tennessee
11
11
92.09%
4.54%
8.51
Washington
12
12
96.71%
1.52%
7.81
LSU
13
13
59.81%
0.47%
7.04
Mississippi St
14
14
98.27%
0.54%
7.39
Oregon
15
15
N/A
0.86%
7.38
Florida St
16
16
41.09%
1.53%
7.74
Michigan St
17
17
N/A
1.89%
7.93
Notre Dame
18
18
66.16%
1.42%
8.69
Houston
19
19
42.70%
7.78%
9.00
Southern Cal
20
20
32.14%
0.06%
6.93
North Carolina
21
21
56.04%
2.27%
7.03
Utah
22
22
N/A
0.64%
7.21
Wisconsin
23
23
40.19%
0.26%
7.91
Auburn
24
24
39.74%
0.03%
6.02
West Virginia
25
25
83.19%
0.35%
6.90
Boise St
26
26
93.74%
20.03%
10.55
UCLA
27
27
45.96%
0.20%
7.49
Oklahoma St
28
28
N/A
0.14%
6.88
Georgia
29
29
43.96%
0.39%
7.10
Iowa
30
30
97.56%
3.38%
8.27
Texas A&M
31
31
54.04%
0.01%
5.28
California
32
32
96.62%
0.02%
6.36
Western Kentucky
33
33
96.98%
4.37%
9.00
Arizona St
34
34
N/A
0.05%
6.09
Louisville
35
35
97.90%
0.16%
7.79
Nebraska
36
36
94.79%
0.12%
7.80
Florida
37
37
95.27%
0.05%
6.52
Virginia Tech
38
38
N/A
0.09%
6.39
Navy
39
39
N/A
1.35%
7.83
Washington St
40
40
N/A
0.03%
5.89
Brigham Young
41
41
67.24%
0.03%
5.83
San Diego St
42
42
N/A
12.40%
9.21
Toledo
43
43
75.69%
5.41%
8.69
Pittsburgh
44
44
N/A
0.03%
5.96
North Carolina St
45
45
N/A
0.01%
5.82
Kansas St
46
46
11.75%
0.00%
4.87
South Florida
47
47
N/A
0.55%
7.27
Texas
48
48
33.84%
0.00%
5.33
Memphis
49
49
N/A
0.12%
6.82
Georgia Tech
50
50
63.37%
0.01%
5.48
Texas Tech
51
51
N/A
0.00%
4.57
Temple
52
52
90.40%
2.82%
8.25
Bowling Green
53
53
10.02%
0.30%
7.59
Miami FL
54
54
N/A
0.00%
4.71
South Carolina
55
55
63.27%
0.00%
4.88
Duke
56
56
N/A
0.00%
4.94
Missouri
57
57
16.81%
0.00%
4.82
Arizona
58
58
32.76%
0.00%
4.35
Southern Miss
59
59
58.85%
1.25%
8.25
Western Michigan
60
60
42.14%
1.19%
7.61
Georgia Southern
61
61
N/A
0.16%
7.22
Penn State
62
62
92.83%
0.00%
5.59
Northwestern
63
63
57.86%
0.00%
4.53
Minnesota
64
64
84.19%
0.03%
6.04
Boston College
65
65
36.63%
0.00%
5.20
Virginia
66
66
N/A
0.00%
4.34
Indiana
67
67
80.34%
0.00%
6.26
Marshall
68
68
N/A
0.18%
6.95
East Carolina
69
69
N/A
0.01%
5.39
Appalachian St
70
70
7.91%
0.19%
8.27
Iowa St
71
71
N/A
0.00%
3.28
Air Force
72
72
N/A
0.19%
6.72
Louisiana Tech
73
73
5.78%
0.02%
6.31
Utah St
74
74
N/A
0.00%
5.31
Syracuse
75
75
N/A
0.00%
3.04
Illinois
76
76
N/A
0.00%
3.34
Cincinnati
77
77
N/A
0.00%
4.95
Colorado
78
78
62.38%
0.00%
2.67
Kentucky
79
79
41.15%
0.00%
3.16
Maryland
80
80
N/A
0.00%
4.15
Middle Tennessee St
81
81
N/A
0.01%
5.72
Vanderbilt
82
82
36.73%
0.00%
2.39
Arkansas St
83
83
24.31%
0.02%
6.08
Central Michigan
84
84
N/A
0.01%
5.69
Northern Illinois
85
85
58.07%
0.00%
4.99
Wake Forest
86
86
80.57%
0.00%
3.57
Tulsa
87
87
65.03%
0.00%
4.71
Connecticut
88
88
N/A
0.00%
3.93
Nevada
89
89
N/A
0.00%
5.35
Purdue
90
90
N/A
0.00%
3.11
New Mexico
91
91
N/A
0.02%
5.71
Colorado St
92
92
37.62%
0.00%
4.61
Ohio U.
93
93
81.32%
0.00%
5.54
San Josť St
94
94
34.97%
0.00%
4.20
Rutgers
95
95
3.29%
0.00%
2.44
Akron
96
96
N/A
0.00%
4.08
Oregon St
97
97
15.81%
0.00%
1.33
Georgia St
98
98
67.45%
0.00%
5.01
Troy
99
99
N/A
0.00%
4.78
Army
100
100
9.60%
0.00%
3.49
UNLV
101
101
N/A
0.00%
4.22
Fresno St
102
102
5.21%
0.00%
3.38
Wyoming
103
103
41.93%
0.00%
3.09
Ball St
104
104
32.55%
0.00%
3.98
Buffalo
105
105
N/A
0.00%
4.14
Florida Atlantic
106
106
N/A
0.00%
4.27
Massachusetts
107
107
4.73%
0.00%
3.29
Louisiana-Lafayette
108
108
6.26%
0.00%
4.05
SMU
109
109
53.28%
0.00%
1.82
South Alabama
110
110
1.73%
0.00%
3.52
Texas-San Antonio
111
111
N/A
0.00%
3.86
Tulane
112
112
19.43%
0.00%
2.89
Florida Int'l
113
113
19.66%
0.00%
4.21
Kansas
114
114
N/A
0.00%
1.06
Old Dominion
115
115
N/A
0.00%
3.45
Idaho
116
116
N/A
0.00%
3.81
Rice
117
117
3.02%
0.00%
3.39
Miami OH
118
118
2.44%
0.00%
3.03
Central Florida
119
119
N/A
0.00%
2.23
UTEP
120
120
65.74%
0.00%
4.17
Kent St
121
121
7.17%
0.00%
2.10
Texas St-San Marcos
122
122
18.68%
0.00%
3.11
Eastern Michigan
123
123
N/A
0.00%
2.60
Hawai`i
124
124
1.04%
0.00%
2.11
Louisiana-Monroe
125
125
N/A
0.00%
2.65
North Texas
126
126
46.72%
0.00%
2.36
New Mexico St
127
127
34.26%
0.00%
2.96
UNC-Charlotte
128
128
2.10%
0.00%
2.86


This page last updated on August 26, 2016 at 1:40 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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