DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Dance Card

 

 

Dance Card Rankings for 2007 (FINAL)


At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2007 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games) according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 
The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The Dance Card correctly predicted 30 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on Georgia Tech, Indiana, Stanford, and Texas Tech), for a 2007 accuracy of 88%[Note: Missouri State becomes the highest ranked team ever to not get a bid, and Texas Tech becomes the lowest ranked team -- and by a substantial margin the team furthest below the bubble line -- ever to get a bid.  Stanford also surpasses the previous mark for being furthest below the bubble line to get a bid.]

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

 

Data Sources


In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

Dance Card Authors


Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.
 

Special Thanks to SAS!!


The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.
 

Links of Interest

 

Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com)
CollegeRPI.com
Kenneth Massey (mratings.com)
Inst. for Opns. Research & the Mgt. Sciences (INFORMS)
Interfaces
National Collegiate Athletics Association

 

SAS Institute Inc.
NCAA Final Four Page
University of North Florida
Coggin College of Business at UNF
Mercer University
Stetson School of Business & Economics at Mercer

 

 

E-Mail Addresses


Jay Coleman
Allen Lynch
Sharon Ashton, Assistant VP of Public Relations, University of North Florida
Barry List, Director of Public Relations for INFORMS  

Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on January 26, 2008 at 2:57 p.m.

 

Rank

Team

Dance Card

RPI Rank

1

@Ohio St.

10.1520

1

2

@Kansas

8.7256

8

3

UCLA

8.4316

3

4

@Florida

8.3871

7

5

@North Carolina

8.2429

2

6

Wisconsin

7.9401

5

7

@Georgetown

7.7637

6

8

Pittsburgh

7.7446

4

9

Southern Illinois

6.4720

11

10

@Memphis

6.4581

9

11

@Nevada Las Vegas

5.5972

12

12

@Creighton

4.9936

22

13

Texas A&M

4.9110

17

14

Kentucky

4.8659

13

15

Washington St.

4.5874

29

16

Texas

4.5480

28

17

Nevada

4.5188

25

18

Brigham Young

4.3538

23

19

@Oregon

4.1993

20

20

Tennessee

4.1086

15

21

Arizona

3.9817

10

22

Xavier

3.6622

34

23

Duke

3.6393

14

24

Louisville

3.5767

24

25

Maryland

3.5589

16

26

Villanova

2.9881

18

27

Marquette

2.8971

19

28

Butler

2.8586

30

29

Boston College

2.7520

26

30

Notre Dame

2.6412

42

31

Southern California

2.4155

36

32

Missouri St. (Miss)

2.0589

35

33

Michigan St.

1.7626

21

34

@Virginia Commonwealth

1.6587

43

35

Vanderbilt

1.4721

38

36

Air Force (Miss)

1.4720

37

37

Syracuse (Miss)

1.4428

32

38

Illinois

1.4269

27

39

Virginia Tech

1.2780

33

40

Arkansas

1.2357

31

41

Virginia

1.1780

50

42

Clemson (Miss)

0.9782

40

43

Purdue

0.7843

44

44

Old Dominion

0.5752

45

The Bubble Bursts Here

45

Georgia Tech (Miss)

0.5076

49

46

@Davidson

-0.0155

56

47

Indiana (Miss)

-0.2556

47

48

Georgia

-0.2989

55

49

@Winthrop

-0.3992

78

50

Oklahoma St.

-0.5360

48

51

@Gonzaga

-0.7102

57

52

Bradley

-0.8617

41

53

Kansas St.

-0.9154

63

54