|
Dance Card Rankings for
2007 (FINAL)
|
At
right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball
teams through the games of Sunday, March 11, 2007 (i.e.,
all regular season and conference tournament games)
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the
University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer
University, and published in Interfaces
(a journal of the Institute
for Operations Research and the Management
Sciences). The Dance Card is
a formula designed to predict which teams will receive
at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection
Committee.
The
Dance Card correctly predicted 30 of the 34 at-large
selections (missing on Georgia Tech, Indiana, Stanford,
and Texas Tech), for a 2007 accuracy of
88%. [Note:
Missouri State becomes the
highest ranked team ever to not get a bid, and Texas Tech
becomes the lowest ranked team -- and by a substantial margin the team furthest below the bubble
line -- ever to get a bid. Stanford also
surpasses the previous mark for being furthest below the
bubble line to get a bid.]
A full description
of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its
historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other
information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.
|
|
|
Data
Sources |
|
In
order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and
Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI
for each team, from CollegeRPI.com,
the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports
Resources, Inc. The authors are
extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work
to provide this information.
In
order to use the Dance Card to develop the
rankings shown, the authors use game
scores from Ken
Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance
Card inputs listed above. The authors are
very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and
invaluable service.
Special
thanks also go to Kenneth Massey
for including the Dance Card rankings on his
basketball ranking compilation
page.
|
Dance
Card Authors |
|
Jay
Coleman is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of
Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
in the Coggin
College
of Business at the
University of
North
Florida. Allen
Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics
& Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School
of Business and Economics at Mercer University.
|
Special
Thanks to SAS!! |
|
The
authors would like to give a hearty and special
thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute
Inc., the maker of the software package used to
develop the Dance Card. In particular, we
thank Mike Nemecek,
Anne Milley, and Trent
Smith, each of whom have been an absolute
delight to work
with.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Please
forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu
Jay Coleman's Home
Page
This page
last updated on January 26, 2008 at 2:57 p.m.
![]()
|
|
|
|
|
Rank |
Team |
Dance
Card |
RPI
Rank |
|
1 |
@Ohio
St. |
10.1520 |
1 |
|
2 |
@Kansas |
8.7256 |
8 |
|
3 |
UCLA |
8.4316 |
3 |
|
4 |
@Florida |
8.3871 |
7 |
|
5 |
@North
Carolina |
8.2429 |
2 |
|
6 |
Wisconsin |
7.9401 |
5 |
|
7 |
@Georgetown |
7.7637 |
6 |
|
8 |
Pittsburgh |
7.7446 |
4 |
|
9 |
Southern
Illinois |
6.4720 |
11 |
|
10 |
@Memphis |
6.4581 |
9 |
|
11 |
@Nevada Las
Vegas |
5.5972 |
12 |
|
12 |
@Creighton |
4.9936 |
22 |
|
13 |
Texas
A&M |
4.9110 |
17 |
|
14 |
Kentucky |
4.8659 |
13 |
|
15 |
Washington
St. |
4.5874 |
29 |
|
16 |
Texas |
4.5480 |
28 |
|
17 |
Nevada |
4.5188 |
25 |
|
18 |
Brigham
Young |
4.3538 |
23 |
|
19 |
@Oregon |
4.1993 |
20 |
|
20 |
Tennessee |
4.1086 |
15 |
|
21 |
Arizona |
3.9817 |
10 |
|
22 |
Xavier |
3.6622 |
34 |
|
23 |
Duke |
3.6393 |
14 |
|
24 |
Louisville |
3.5767 |
24 |
|
25 |
Maryland |
3.5589 |
16 |
|
26 |
Villanova |
2.9881 |
18 |
|
27 |
Marquette |
2.8971 |
19 |
|
28 |
Butler |
2.8586 |
30 |
|
29 |
Boston College |
2.7520 |
26 |
|
30 |
Notre
Dame |
2.6412 |
42 |
|
31 |
Southern
California |
2.4155 |
36 |
|
32 |
Missouri
St.
(Miss) |
2.0589 |
35 |
|
33 |
Michigan
St. |
1.7626 |
21 |
|
34 |
@Virginia
Commonwealth |
1.6587 |
43 |
|
35 |
Vanderbilt |
1.4721 |
38 |
|
36 |
Air Force
(Miss) |
1.4720 |
37 |
|
37 |
Syracuse
(Miss) |
1.4428 |
32 |
|
38 |
Illinois |
1.4269 |
27 |
|
39 |
Virginia
Tech |
1.2780 |
33 |
|
40 |
Arkansas |
1.2357 |
31 |
|
41 |
Virginia |
1.1780 |
50 |
|
42 |
Clemson
(Miss) |
0.9782 |
40 |
|
43 |
Purdue |
0.7843 |
44 |
|
44 |
Old
Dominion |
0.5752 |
45 |
|
The Bubble Bursts
Here |
|
45 |
Georgia
Tech (Miss) |
0.5076 |
49 |
|
46 |
@Davidson |
-0.0155 |
56 |
|
47 |
Indiana
(Miss) |
-0.2556 |
47 |
|
48 |
Georgia |
-0.2989 |
55 |
|
49 |
@Winthrop |
-0.3992 |
78 |
|
50 |
Oklahoma
St. |
-0.5360 |
48 |
|
51 |
@Gonzaga |
-0.7102 |
57 |
|
52 |
Bradley |
-0.8617 |
41 |
|
53 |
Kansas
St. |
-0.9154 |
63 |
|
54 |
Akron |
-1.0211 |
69 |
|
55 |
Michigan |
-1.0517 |
46 |
|
56 |
@New Mexico
St. |
-1.1505 |
71 |
|
57 |
Vermont |
-1.1833 |
81 |
|
58 |
@Holy
Cross |
-1.2321 |
68 |
|
59 |
Appalachian
St. |
-1.2742 |
76 |
|
60 |
West
Virginia |
-1.2923 |
58 |
|
61 |
Stanford
(Miss) |
-1.4382 |
54 |
|
62 |
Massachusetts |
-1.4774 |
66 |
|
63 |
Drexel |
-1.6117 |
53 |
|
64 |
Florida
St. |
-1.6723 |
39 |
|
65 |
San
Diego St. |
-1.6922 |
64 |
|
66 |
Mississippi
St. |
-1.8771 |
59 |
|
67 |
Alabama |
-1.8985 |
51 |
|
68 |
Texas Tech
(Miss) |
-1.9220 |
52 |
|
69 |
Mississippi |
-1.9639 |
60 |
|
70 |
Utah
St. |
-2.1467 |
61 |
|
71 |
@Pennsylvania |
-2.1999 |
85 |
|
72 |
@Wright
St. |
-2.2215 |
84 |
|
73 |
DePaul |
-2.5046 |
65 |
|
74 |
Providence |
-2.5151 |
62 |
|
75 |
Fresno
St. |
-3.2478 |
79 |
|
76 |
Bucknell |
-3.2947 |
94 |
|
77 |
Hofstra |
-3.3605 |
89 |
|
78 |
St.
Louis |
-3.4125 |
80 |
|
79 |
North
Carolina St. |
-3.5745 |
67 |
|
80 |
@Long Beach
St. |
-3.6739 |
92 |
|
81 |
Northern
Iowa |
-3.8311 |
88 |
|
82 |
@George
Washington |
-3.8465 |
77 |
|
83 |
@Texas A&M
Corpus Chris |
-3.9382 |
93 |
|
84 |
Houston |
-3.9687 |
83 |
|
85 |
@Albany |
-3.9831 |
98 |
|
86 |
Washington |
-3.9851 |
70 |
|
87 |
@Oral
Roberts |
-4.1866 |
100 |
|
88 |
Iowa |
-4.1963 |
87 |
|
89 |
Dayton |
-4.4711 |
74 |
|
90 |
Missouri |
-4.5492 |
72 |
|
91 |
Toledo |
-5.2207 |
107 |
|
92 |
Santa
Clara |
-5.2492 |
97 |
|
93 |
California |
-5.2615 |
75 |
|
94 |
Hawaii |
-5.3517 |
91 |
|
95 |
Western
Kentucky |
-5.5367 |
105 |
|
96 |
Auburn |
-5.6284 |
90 |
|
97 |
Marist |
-5.7012 |
114 |
|
98 |
Kent
St. |
-5.7858 |
102 |
|
99 |
Nebraska |
-5.8627 |
95 |
|
100 |
Louisiana
St. |
-5.9390 |
73 |
|
101 |
Saint
Joseph's |
-5.9425 |
101 |
|
102 |
@Miami OH |
-6.0040 |
103 |
|
103 |
East
Tennessee St. |
-6.0165 |
126 |
|
104 |
@Belmont |
-6.1348 |
124 |
|
105 |
@Niagara |
-6.3291 |
131 |
|
106 |
Oklahoma |
-6.4592 |
82 |
|
107 |
Rhode
Island |
-6.6191 |
109 |
|
108 |
Central
Florida |
-6.9479 |
123 |
|
109 |
Austin Peay |
-6.9756 |
128 |
|
110 |
Fordham |
-7.0113 |
113 |
|
111 |
Wichita
St. |
-7.0139 |
99 |
|
112 |
Tulsa |
-7.1886 |
112 |
|
113 |
Connecticut |
-7.1949 |
86 |
|
114 |
Wyoming |
-7.2130 |
118 |
|
115 |
@Central Connecticut |
-7.2571 |
142 |
|
116 |
College of Charleston |
-7.3191 |
117 |
|
117 |
Loyola
Chicago |
-7.3378 |
104 |
|
118 |
St.
John's |
-7.3537 |
108 |
|
119 |
Boise
St. |
-7.4063 |
116 |
|
120 |
Ohio |
-7.5000 |
115 |
|
121 |
Colorado
St. |
-7.6202 |
111 |
|
122 |
Utah |
-7.8901 |
120 |
|
123 |
Sam
Houston St. |
-7.9324 |
129 |
|
124 |
Southern
Mississippi |
-7.9672 |
125 |
|
125 |
@Eastern Kentucky |
-7.9986 |
141 |
|
126 |
Siena |
-8.0506 |
134 |
|
127 |
South
Carolina |
-8.2731 |
96 |
|
128 |
South
Alabama |
-8.4282 |
136 |
|
129 |
Drake |
-8.4377 |
106 |
|
130 |
Wake Forest |
-8.5138 |
110 |
|
131 |
Delaware
St. |
-8.6548 |
144 |
|
132 |
Oakland |
-8.9918 |
139 |
|
133 |
@North Texas |
-9.2175 |
147 |
|
134 |
George
Mason |
-9.2837 |
121 |
|
135 |
@Weber
St. |
-9.6872 |
153 |
|
136 |
Cal
Poly |
-9.7411 |
148 |
|
137 |
Yale |
-9.9258 |
150 |
|
138 |
UC Santa
Barbara |
-10.0332 |
155 |
|
139 |
Tulane |
-10.1545 |
149 |
|
140 |
Iowa
St. |
-10.2692 |
122 |
|
141 |
Indiana
St. |
-10.3501 |
127 |
|
142 |
Northern
Arizona |
-10.4820 |
167 |
|
143 |
Tennessee
Tech |
-10.6970 |
160 |
|
144 |
Rice |
-10.7301 |
152 |
|
145 |
Sacred
Heart |
-10.7608 |
168 |
|
146 |
Western
Michigan |
-10.7773 |
154 |
|
147 |
UAB |
-10.7813 |
137 |
|
148 |
Cal
St. Fullerton |
-10.8521 |
163 |
|
149 |
Baylor |
-11.2378 |
119 |
|
150 |
Loyola
MD |
-11.3440 |
181 |
|
151 |
Seton
Hall |
-11.4296 |
132 |
|
152 |
Illinois
St. |
-11.5456 |
133 |
|
153 |
Marshall |
-11.5676 |
159 |
|
154 |
Evansville |
-11.7669 |
130 |
|
155 |
Cincinnati |
-11.8526 |
135 |
|
156 |
Middle Tennessee |
-11.9356 |
164 |
|
157 |
St.
Mary's |
-12.0089 |
156 |
|
158 |
Arkansas
St. |
-12.0206 |
177 |
|
159 |
New
Mexico |
-12.1501 |
140 |
|
160 |
Cornell |
-12.2764 |
174 |
|
161 |
Florida Atlantic |
-12.3012 |
173 |
|
162 |
Valparaiso |
-12.4440 |
176 |
|
163 |
Utah
Valley St. |
-12.4456 |
146 |
|
164 |
Miami FL |
-12.6200 |
145 |
|
165 |
Charlotte |
-12.6865 |
138 |
|
166 |
Texas
Christian |
-12.7176 |
157 |
|
167 |
@Florida
A&M |
-12.7800 |
190 |
|
168 |
Samford |
-12.7863 |
182 |
|
169 |
Murray
St. |
-12.8386 |
189 |
|
170 |
UC
Irvine |
-12.9284 |
178 |
|
171 |
Northwestern
St. |
-13.1592 |
183 |
|
172 |
San
Francisco |
-13.2320 |
169 |
|
173 |
Illinois Chicago |
-13.2866 |
161 |
|
174 |
Temple |
-13.3973 |
166 |
|
175 |
High
Point |
-13.6938 |
200 |
|
176 |
Texas El
Paso |
-13.7081 |
170 |
|
177 |
Wisconsin Green
Bay |
-13.8247 |
175 |
|
178 |
Youngstown
St. |
-13.8807 |
172 |
|
179 |
Towson |
-13.8935 |
158 |
|
180 |
@Jackson
St. |
-14.0313 |
197 |
|
181 |
Northwestern |
-14.4332 |
143 |
|
182 |
Columbia |
-14.8608 |
199 |
|
183 |
NC Greensboro |
-14.9062 |
210 |
|
184 |
Lipscomb |
-14.9400 |
201 |
|
185 |
North
Dakota St. |
-14.9859 |
184 |
|
186 |
San
Diego |
-14.9868 |
185 |
|
187 |
Portland
St. |
-15.0085 |
203 |
|
188 |
Fairfield |
-15.0312 |
195 |
|
189 |
Rider |
-15.0363 |
205 |
|
190 |
Penn
St. |
-15.1116 |
151 |
|
191 |
South
Florida |
-15.1594 |
165 |
|
192 |
Robert
Morris |
-15.2760 |
202 |
|
193 |
Jacksonville |
-15.3028 |
211 |
|
194 |
Northeastern |
-15.3414 |
180 |
|
195 |
Montana |
-15.3862 |
212 |
|
196 |
Furman |
-15.4495 |
198 |
|
197 |
Louisiana
Tech |
-15.4521 |
193 |
|
198 |
William &
Mary |
-15.4990 |
179 |
|
199 |
Loyola Marymount |
-15.5161 |
186 |
|
200 |
American |
-15.6015 |
192 |
|
201 |
Mississippi Valley
St. |
-15.6599 |
219 |
|
202 |
Lamar |
-15.8649 |
216 |
|
203 |
Minnesota |
-15.9078 |
162 |
|
204 |
Louisiana Monroe |
-15.9167 |
217 |
|
205 |
Manhattan |
-15.9750 |
227 |
|
206 |
Eastern
Washington |
-16.1930 |
209 |
|
207 |
Harvard |
-16.3003 |
194 |
|
208 |
IUPUI |
-16.3850 |
206 |
|
209 |
Duquesne |
-16.4379 |
218 |
|
210 |
Southern
Methodist |
-16.5397 |
188 |
|
211 |
Idaho
St. |
-16.6109 |
207 |
|
212 |
New
Orleans |
-16.7817 |
215 |
|
213 |
Boston University |
-16.7843 |
208 |
|
214 |
Pacific |
-16.8989 |
204 |
|
215 |
Detroit |
-16.9767 |
196 |
|
216 |
Quinnipiac |
-17.0168 |
239 |
|
217 |
Central
Michigan |
-17.3672 |
224 |
|
218 |
Rutgers |
-17.3853 |
187 |
|
219 |
Oregon
St. |
-17.4254 |
171 |
|
220 |
Troy |
-17.5544 |
226 |
|
221 |
Hampton |
-17.5626 |
228 |
|
222 |
Chattanooga |
-17.6235 |
214 |
|
223 |
Arkansas Little
Rock |
-17.6833 |
233 |
|
224 |
Southern
Utah |
-17.8007 |
220 |
|
225 |
Brown |
-18.0074 |
235 |
|
226 |
Eastern
Michigan |
-18.1209 |
225 |
|
227 |
Arizona
St. |
-18.2710 |
191 |
|
228 |
Fairleigh
Dickinson |
-18.4229 |
240 |
|
229 |
Buffalo |
-18.4774 |
222 |
|
230 |
Lehigh |
-18.5633 |
236 |
|
231 |
Cal St.
Northridge |
-18.6323 |
238 |
|
232 |
Colorado |
-18.6813 |
213 |
|
233 |
MD Baltimore
County |
-18.6908 |
223 |
|
234 |
McNeese
St. |
-18.7248 |
242 |
|
235 |
Southeastern
Louisiana |
-18.7425 |
237 |
|
236 |
Hartford |
-19.3286 |
232 |
|
237 |
Stephen F.
Austin |
-19.5056 |
244 |
|
238 |
Florida
International |
-19.5257 |
253 |
|
239 |
Missouri Kansas
City |
-19.6722 |
245 |
|
240 |
Bowling
Green |
-19.6895 |
234 |
|
241 |
Wisconsin Milwaukee |
-19.8291 |
231 |
|
242 |
Navy |
-19.9910 |
229 |
|
243 |
Mount St.
Mary's |
-20.1413 |
265 |
|
244 |
Binghamton |
-20.4019 |
250 |
|
245 |
Army |
-20.5693 |
230 |
|
246 |
Dartmouth |
-20.6189 |
246 |
|
247 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
-20.7261 |
261 |
|
248 |
Canisius |
-20.7743 |
255 |
|
249 |
Georgia
Southern |
-20.8050 |
248 |
|
250 |
Maine |
-20.8956 |
268 |
|
251 |
Kennesaw
St. |
-21.1635 |
274 |
|
252 |
Coastal Carolina |
-21.1937 |
263 |
|
253 |
Mercer |
-21.2225 |
276 |
|
254 |
Tennessee
St. |
-21.2795 |
264 |
|
255 |
IUPU Fort
Wayne |
-21.2894 |
254 |
|
256 |
Montana
St. |
-21.3247 |
281 |
|
257 |
Gardner
Webb |
-21.4621 |
260 |
|
258 |
Georgia
St. |
-21.5019 |
221 |
|
259 |
Liberty |
-21.5023 |
279 |
|
260 |
Monmouth |
-21.5062 |
252 |
|
261 |
North
Carolina
A&T |
-21.5322 |
285 |
|
262 |
Campbell |
-21.5353 |
266 |
|
263 |
Texas Arlington |
-21.5483 |
273 |
|
264 |
San Jose
St. |
-21.5763 |
241 |
|
265 |
Coppin
St. |
-21.8461 |
259 |
|
266 |
NC Asheville |
-21.8815 |
271 |
|
267 |
Portland |
-21.8824 |
256 |
|
268 |
Norfolk
St. |
-21.9474 |
283 |
|
269 |
La
Salle |
-22.0212 |
243 |
|
270 |
Ball
St. |
-22.0330 |
257 |
|
271 |
Chicago
St. |
-22.1163 |
247 |
|
272 |
Colgate |
-22.1603 |
262 |
|
273 |
Morehead
St. |
-22.4542 |
287 |
|
274 |
Arkansas Pine
Bluff |
-22.5123 |
280 |
|
275 |
Morgan
St. |
-22.5980 |
304 |
|
276 |
New
Hampshire |
-22.6051 |
272 |
|
277 |
Western
Carolina |
-22.6058 |
258 |
|
278 |
Richmond |
-22.7177 |
249 |
|
279 |
Princeton |
-22.8681 |
267 |
|
280 |
Grambling |
-22.9247 |
296 |
|
281 |
Southern |
-23.0742 |
288 |
|
282 |
Southeast Missouri
St. |
-23.1272 |
293 |
|
283 |
Savannah
St. |
-23.1405 |
278 |
|
284 |
Stetson |
-23.2513 |
282 |
|
285 |
South
Carolina St. |
-23.3643 |
294 |
|
286 |
Pepperdine |
-23.3740 |
269 |
|
287 |
NC Wilmington |
-23.3996 |
251 |
|
288 |
St.
Bonaventure</ | |
