DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2006 (FINAL)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 12, 2006 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences).

The Dance Card correctly predicted 31 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on Northern Iowa, Seton Hall, and Air Force), for a 2006 accuracy of 91%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, Bill Rose, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on Monday February 26, 2007 10:28 PM

 

Rank   Team (@=auto. bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 @ Duke 10.7555 1
2   Villanova 9.5791 2
3   Connecticut 9.0877 4
4 @ Memphis 8.5919 3
5   Ohio St. 7.7533 5
6   North Carolina 7.1193 8
7 @ Kansas 7.0130 17
8   Texas 6.9428 9
9 @ Iowa 6.8005 11
10   Louisiana St. 5.9712 12
11   Pittsburgh 5.8354 14
12   Illinois 5.5860 15
13 @ UCLA 5.5548 7
14 @ Gonzaga 5.4475 13
15 @ Florida 5.4081 16
16 @ Nevada 4.7903 20
17   Tennessee 4.6859 6
18   Boston College 4.4025 21
19 @ Syracuse 4.1885 10
20 @ Southern Illinois 4.0115 32
21   Wisconsin 3.8018 22
22   West Virginia 3.5879 30
23   Oklahoma 3.3890 18
24   George Washington 3.2082 36
25   Michigan St. 3.1258 19
26   Wichita St. 2.9503 23
27 @ NC Wilmington 2.7918 38
28   Indiana 2.7353 33
29   Washington 2.6227 28
30   Arizona 2.4925 24
31   North Carolina St. 2.2333 43
32   UAB 2.0831 40
33   Georgetown 1.9867 41
34   Texas A&M 1.9155 35
35   Kentucky 1.9125 31
36   Cincinnati (Miss) 1.8226 26
37   Bradley 1.7395 45
38 @ Bucknell 1.6737 48
39   Marquette 1.6248 29
40   Hofstra (Miss) 1.5078 46
41   George Mason 1.0358 34
42 @ Kent St. 0.9403 52
43   Utah St. 0.8820 51
44   Missouri St. (Miss) 0.7621 25
45   Arkansas 0.7620 42
46   Alabama 0.6898 39
47   California 0.6566 50
The Bubble Bursts Here
48   Creighton 0.6451 44
49 @ San Diego St. 0.6426 56
50   Northern Iowa (Miss) 0.4700 27
51   Michigan 0.1872 47
52 @ Wisconsin Milwaukee -0.0549 58
53   Western Kentucky -0.1786 54
54   Maryland -0.1861 37
55   Seton Hall (Miss) -0.3094 49
56   Air Force (Miss) -0.7447 60
57 @ South Alabama -0.9285 71
58   Florida St. -1.0935 64
59 @ Murray St. -1.5242 72
60   Colorado -1.7686 63
61   South Carolina -1.8182 55
62 @ Northwestern St. -1.8320 81
63 @ Iona -1.8961 62
64   Saint Joseph's -1.9637 53
65   Brigham Young -2.0930 70
66   Vanderbilt -2.1867 59
67   Temple -2.1926 74
68 @