DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2005 (FINAL)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 13, 2005 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences).

The Dance Card correctly predicted 33 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Iowa State), for a 2005 accuracy of 97%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, Bill Rose, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on January 11, 2006 at 11:10 p.m.

 

Rank   Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 @ Illinois 10.2591 2
2   North Carolina 9.5415 5
3   Kansas 9.3213 1
4   Wake Forest 8.3990 7
5 @ Washington 8.2740 6
6 @ Louisville 7.8883 11
7 @ Duke 7.7948 3
8 @ Oklahoma St. 7.7249 4
9   Kentucky 7.7111 10
10   Arizona 7.2116 9
11   Connecticut 6.9602 12
12   Boston College 6.3182 8
13 @ Syracuse 6.1193 18
14 @ Florida 5.7427 15
15   Oklahoma 5.6967 16
16   Alabama 5.4951 19
17   Wisconsin 5.3740 17
18   Villanova 4.9841 14
19   Cincinnati 4.6424 20
20 @ Gonzaga 4.5648 13
21   Pacific 4.4398 23
22   Michigan St. 4.0294 22
23   Southern Illinois 3.9167 21
24   Louisiana St. 3.7922 24
25   Nevada 3.5953 29
26   Utah 3.5767 25
27   Charlotte 3.3890 37
28 @ Vermont 3.3078 33
29 @ Creighton 3.2558 40
30 @ Old Dominion 3.1512 43
31   Texas Tech 3.0453 27
32   West Virginia 2.9984 31
33   Minnesota 2.9135 30
34 @ Texas El Paso 2.8249 34
35   Georgia Tech 2.0535 26
36   Mississippi St. 2.0284 32
37   Pittsburgh 2.0132 28
38   Iowa 1.6235 36
39   St. Mary's 1.4513 38
40   UCLA 1.3842 35
41   Stanford 1.1728 41
42   Texas 0.7795 39
43   UAB 0.5450 49
44   North Carolina St. 0.2469 53
45   Wichita St. (Miss) -0.0585 44
46 @ Ohio -0.2778 67
47 @ George Washington -0.3573 60
48 @ Utah St. -0.4985 62
49   Northern Iowa -0.8510 42
    The Bubble Bursts Here    
50 @ Wisconsin Milwaukee -0.9158 70
51   Southwest Missouri St. -0.9558 54
52 @ New Mexico -1.0020 78
53   Iowa St. (Miss) -1.1919 57
54   Miami OH -1.2216 58
55   Georgetown -1.2614 63
56   Notre Dame -1.3200 59
57   DePaul -1.3303 56
58   Miami FL -1.4756 51
59   Maryland -1.5150 45
60   Buffalo -1.5457 52
61   Ohio St. -1.5981 47
62   Davidson -1.5986 80
63   Vanderbilt -1.6544 55
64   Holy Cross -1.6841 68
65 @ Pennsylvania -1.7448 81
66   Texas A&M -1.7808 66
67   Northeastern -1.9513 71
68   Arizona St. -1.9891 50
69   Indiana -2.0972