DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2004 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 14, 2004 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 31 of the 34 at-large selections (missing on UTEP, Air Force, and Richmond), for a 2004 accuracy of 91%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Kentucky @ 10.0066 2
2 Duke 9.2046 1
3 Connecticut @ 8.5480 5
4 St. Joseph's 8.4651 3
5 Mississippi St. 8.3020 4
6 Stanford @ 8.0706 7
7 Pittsburgh 7.7284 8
8 Oklahoma St. @ 7.3046 6
9 Texas 6.8737 10
10 Wisconsin @ 6.5067 12
11 Illinois 6.1722 23
12 Gonzaga @ 5.9514 9
13 Cincinnati @ 5.9314 11
14 Florida 5.7584 13
15 North Carolina St. 5.5830 17
16 Kansas 5.2108 15
17 Georgia Tech 5.1694 16
18 Syracuse 4.6067 14
19 Wake Forest 4.4296 20
20 Southern Illinois 4.4250 25
21 Providence 4.3654 21
22 Maryland @ 4.3336 18
23 Boston College 4.0434 22
24 Memphis 3.4627 32
25 Xavier @ 3.2692 35
26 South Carolina 3.2648 45
27 Nevada @ 3.2281 29
28 North Carolina 3.2086 19
29 Vanderbilt 3.1656 27
30 Manhattan @ 2.9234 42
31 Texas Tech 2.3464 30
32 Dayton 2.3292 40
33 Western Michigan @ 2.3283 44
34 Seton Hall 2.1975 28
35 Louisville 2.1078 24
36 Michigan St. 2.0197 39
37 Utah @ 1.5328 36
38 Alabama Birmingham 1.4727 33
39 Alabama 1.3643 26
40 Brigham Young 1.3457 31
41 Utah St. (Miss) 1.3415 43
42 DePaul 1.2202 37
43 Charlotte 1.0579 34
44 Central Florida @ 1.0434 62
45 Pacific @ 0.8465 65
46 Notre Dame (Miss) 0.7100 49
47 Virginia Commonwealth @ 0.5220 54
48 Washington 0.5159 60
49 Louisiana St. (Miss) 0.4360 38
50 Arizona 0.3640 41
  Bubble Point    
51 Murray St. @ 0.1764 58
52 Northern Iowa @ 0.0590 59
53 East Tennessee St. @ -0.1194 61
54 Troy St. -0.2800 66
55 Virginia -0.3911 52
56 Texas El Paso (Miss) -0.4934 46
57 Air Force (Miss) -0.5587 70
58 Missouri -0.8484 51
59 Oklahoma -0.8536 50
60 Wichita St. -1.1155 68
61 Colorado -1.1676 57
62 Florida St. -1.2553 53
63 Rice -1.4389 63
64 Richmond (Miss) -1.4542 47
65 Georgia -1.4799 48
66 Boston University -1.5882 84
67 Kent St. -1.9664 76
68 George Washington -2.1969 74
69 Boise St. -2.2680 72
70 Rutgers -2.5388 56
71 Illinois Chicago @ -2.5944 87
72 Louisiana Lafayette @ -2.7110 71
73 Wisconsin Milwaukee -2.7688 75
74 St. Louis -2.7867 64
75 Iowa St. -2.9820 69
76 Creighton -3.2213 77
77 George Mason -3.2436 81
78 Michigan -3.3597 55
79 Villanova -3.6147 67
80 Austin Peay -3.6232 94
81 Hawaii -3.6938 73
82 Belmont -3.8705 85
83 Miami OH -4.5493 93
84 Tennessee