DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2003 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 16, 2003 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Alabama and N.C. State), for a 2003 accuracy of 94%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Kentucky @ 11.6822 1
2 Arizona 8.5350 2
3 Oklahoma @ 8.3537 3
4 Pittsburgh @ 7.8780 8
5 Dayton @ 7.2918 13
6 Wake Forest 7.2908 7
7 Kansas 7.2453 6
8 Marquette 7.1806 10
9 Georgia 6.9754 5
10 Duke @ 6.8688 12
11 Syracuse 6.7084 9
12 Texas 6.3898 4
13 Florida 6.0974 15
14 Louisville @ 5.7858 11
15 Illinois @ 5.4450 18
16 Xavier (OH) 5.1793 20
17 Brigham Young 4.7313 19
18 Utah 4.6665 16
19 Stanford 4.5500 21
20 Notre Dame 4.5079 14
21 Creighton @ 4.1378 23
22 Wisconsin 4.1065 25
23 St. Joseph's (PA) 4.0655 27
24 Missouri 3.8874 17
25 Memphis 3.5132 26
26 Mississippi St. 3.3215 24
27 Connecticut 3.0052 28
28 Oklahoma St. 2.9437 22
29 Michigan St. 2.7149 31
30 California 2.6167 33
31 Southern Illinois 2.3964 34
32 Weber St. @ 2.2852 41
33 Butler 2.1966 35
34 UNLV (Miss) 1.8371 40
35 Wisconsin Milwaukee @ 1.6799 45
36 Maryland 1.6665 37
37 Central Michigan @ 1.4752 44
38 Cincinnati 1.3307 29
39 NC Wilmington @ 1.2398 51
40 Manhattan @ 1.0378 55
41 Purdue 1.0221 30
42 Gonzaga 1.0148 43
43 Colorado 1.0044 46
44 Arizona St. 0.9195 32
45 LSU 0.9170 39
46 Indiana 0.5922 47
47 Western Kentucky @ 0.4546 58
48 Holy Cross @ 0.3340 61
49 Texas Tech (Miss) 0.0829 48
50 Auburn 0.0383 36
  Bubble Point    
51 Tulsa @ -0.1550 64
52 Alabama (Miss) -0.1589 38
53 Boston College -0.2100 49
54 Seton Hall -0.2614 42
55 St. Louis -0.3854 57
56 North Carolina St. (Miss) -0.5510 53
57 Pennsylvania @ -0.6693 59
58 Oregon @ -0.7069 50
59 Troy St. @ -0.9154 66
60 Austin Peay @ -0.9235 73
61 Providence -1.2053 56
62 Wyoming -1.2324 63
63 Tennessee -1.2496 60
64 College of Charleston -1.2900 67
65 North Carolina -1.2959 52
66 Fresno St. -1.8287 69
67 Michigan -1.8901 65
68 Ohio St. -2.1315 54
69 Sam Houston St. @ -2.1948 91
70 Kent St. -2.2497 77
71 Utah St. @ -2.3844 79
72 Louisiana Lafayette -2.7914 72
73 Fairfield -3.1619 83
74 Texas A&M -3.2270 68
75 DePaul -3.2289 62
76 Illinois Chicago -3.3690 74
77 San Diego @ -3.5411 82
78 Georgia Tech -3.6664 76
79 Temple -3.9603 88
80 Colorado St. @ -4.0778 75
81 Minnesota -4.0796 71
82 Stephen F. Austin -4.1753 102
83 Mercer -4.2371 105
84 Virginia -4.4419