Dance Card Rankings
for 2003 (Final)
At right are rankings of
all NCAA Division I men's
basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 16, 2003 (i.e., all
regular season and conference tournament games),
according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North
Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer
University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the
Institute for Operations Research and the
Management Sciences).
The Dance Card
correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections
(missing only on Alabama and N.C. State), for a
2003 accuracy of 94%.
A full description of the Dance
Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical
accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at
DanceCard.unf.edu.
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Data Sources |
In order to build the Dance Card formula,
Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from
CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry
Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc. The authors are extremely
grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.
In order to use the Dance Card to
develop the rankings shown, the authors used
game scores from Ken Pomeroy
to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.
The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his
generous and invaluable service.
Special thanks also go to
Kenneth Massey for
including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking
compilation
page.
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Dance Card Authors |
Jay Coleman
is
the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative
Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of
Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and
Economics at Mercer University.
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Special Thanks to SAS!! |
The authors would
like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute
Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card. In
particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an
absolute delight to work with.
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Disclaimers |
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This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any
capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association
(NCAA). SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are
registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other
countries. ® indicates USA registration.
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Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu Jay Coleman's Home
Page This page last updated on
February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.
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Rank |
Team (@=automatic bid) |
Dance Card |
RPI Rank |
|
1 |
Kentucky @ |
11.6822 |
1 |
|
2 |
Arizona |
8.5350 |
2 |
|
3 |
Oklahoma @ |
8.3537 |
3 |
|
4 |
Pittsburgh @ |
7.8780 |
8 |
|
5 |
Dayton @ |
7.2918 |
13 |
|
6 |
Wake Forest |
7.2908 |
7 |
|
7 |
Kansas |
7.2453 |
6 |
|
8 |
Marquette |
7.1806 |
10 |
|
9 |
Georgia |
6.9754 |
5 |
|
10 |
Duke @ |
6.8688 |
12 |
|
11 |
Syracuse |
6.7084 |
9 |
|
12 |
Texas |
6.3898 |
4 |
|
13 |
Florida |
6.0974 |
15 |
|
14 |
Louisville @ |
5.7858 |
11 |
|
15 |
Illinois @ |
5.4450 |
18 |
|
16 |
Xavier (OH) |
5.1793 |
20 |
|
17 |
Brigham Young |
4.7313 |
19 |
|
18 |
Utah |
4.6665 |
16 |
|
19 |
Stanford |
4.5500 |
21 |
|
20 |
Notre Dame |
4.5079 |
14 |
|
21 |
Creighton @ |
4.1378 |
23 |
|
22 |
Wisconsin |
4.1065 |
25 |
|
23 |
St. Joseph's (PA) |
4.0655 |
27 |
|
24 |
Missouri |
3.8874 |
17 |
|
25 |
Memphis |
3.5132 |
26 |
|
26 |
Mississippi St. |
3.3215 |
24 |
|
27 |
Connecticut |
3.0052 |
28 |
|
28 |
Oklahoma St. |
2.9437 |
22 |
|
29 |
Michigan St. |
2.7149 |
31 |
|
30 |
California |
2.6167 |
33 |
|
31 |
Southern Illinois |
2.3964 |
34 |
|
32 |
Weber St. @ |
2.2852 |
41 |
|
33 |
Butler |
2.1966 |
35 |
|
34 |
UNLV (Miss) |
1.8371 |
40 |
|
35 |
Wisconsin Milwaukee @ |
1.6799 |
45 |
|
36 |
Maryland |
1.6665 |
37 |
|
37 |
Central Michigan @ |
1.4752 |
44 |
|
38 |
Cincinnati |
1.3307 |
29 |
|
39 |
NC Wilmington @ |
1.2398 |
51 |
|
40 |
Manhattan @ |
1.0378 |
55 |
|
41 |
Purdue |
1.0221 |
30 |
|
42 |
Gonzaga |
1.0148 |
43 |
|
43 |
Colorado |
1.0044 |
46 |
|
44 |
Arizona St. |
0.9195 |
32 |
|
45 |
LSU |
0.9170 |
39 |
|
46 |
Indiana |
0.5922 |
47 |
|
47 |
Western Kentucky @ |
0.4546 |
58 |
|
48 |
Holy Cross @ |
0.3340 |
61 |
|
49 |
Texas Tech (Miss) |
0.0829 |
48 |
|
50 |
Auburn |
0.0383 |
36 |
| |
Bubble Point |
|
|
|
51 |
Tulsa @ |
-0.1550 |
64 |
|
52 |
Alabama (Miss) |
-0.1589 |
38 |
|
53 |
Boston College |
-0.2100 |
49 |
|
54 |
Seton Hall |
-0.2614 |
42 |
|
55 |
St. Louis |
-0.3854 |
57 |
|
56 |
North Carolina St. (Miss) |
-0.5510 |
53 |
|
57 |
Pennsylvania @ |
-0.6693 |
59 |
|
58 |
Oregon @ |
-0.7069 |
50 |
|
59 |
Troy St. @ |
-0.9154 |
66 |
|
60 |
Austin Peay @ |
-0.9235 |
73 |
|
61 |
Providence |
-1.2053 |
56 |
|
62 |
Wyoming |
-1.2324 |
63 |
|
63 |
Tennessee |
-1.2496 |
60 |
|
64 |
College of Charleston |
-1.2900 |
67 |
|
65 |
North Carolina |
-1.2959 |
52 |
|
66 |
Fresno St. |
-1.8287 |
69 |
|
67 |
Michigan |
-1.8901 |
65 |
|
68 |
Ohio St. |
-2.1315 |
54 |
|
69 |
Sam Houston St. @ |
-2.1948 |
91 |
|
70 |
Kent St. |
-2.2497 |
77 |
|
71 |
Utah St. @ |
-2.3844 |
79 |
|
72 |
Louisiana Lafayette |
-2.7914 |
72 |
|
73 |
Fairfield |
-3.1619 |
83 |
|
74 |
Texas A&M |
-3.2270 |
68 |
|
75 |
DePaul |
-3.2289 |
62 |
|
76 |
Illinois Chicago |
-3.3690 |
74 |
|
77 |
San Diego @ |
-3.5411 |
82 |
|
78 |
Georgia Tech |
-3.6664 |
76 |
|
79 |
Temple |
-3.9603 |
88 |
|
80 |
Colorado St. @ |
-4.0778 |
75 |
|
81 |
Minnesota |
-4.0796 |
71 |
|
82 |
Stephen F. Austin |
-4.1753 |
102 |
|
83 |
Mercer |
-4.2371 |
105 |
|
84 |
Virginia |
-4.4419 |
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