DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

Dance Card

 
Dance Card Rankings for 2002 (Final)

At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 10, 2002 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida and Allen Lynch of Mercer University, and published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences). 

The Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 at-large selections (missing only on Missouri and Wyoming), for a 2002 accuracy of 94%.

A full description of the Dance Card, its rankings for the current year, its historical accuracy, its rankings for other seasons, and other information can be found at DanceCard.unf.edu.

 

Data Sources

In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors used game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

 
Dance Card Authors

Jay Coleman
is the Richard deRaismes Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University.

 
Special Thanks to SAS!!

The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Bill Rose, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.

 
Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 24, 2005 at 10:40 p.m.

 

Rank Team (@=automatic bid) Dance Card RPI Rank
1 Duke @ 10.2057 4
2 Cincinnati @ 9.8377 2
3 Maryland 8.5710 3
4 Kansas 8.1427 1
5 Connecticut @ 7.9796 8
6 Alabama 7.7727 7
7 Oklahoma @ 7.4656 5
8 Mississippi St. @ 6.7690 9
9 Pittsburgh 6.7048 10
10 Arizona @ 6.2804 6
11 Illinois 6.1790 12
12 Xavier (OH) @ 5.7599 14
13 Kent St. @ 5.6785 25
14 Florida 5.4403 15
15 Texas Tech 5.2093 13
16 Gonzaga @ 5.1377 21
17 Kentucky 5.0517 11
18 Hawaii @ 4.8851 27
19 Marquette 4.8249 23
20 Georgia 4.1077 18
21 Miami (FL) 4.0604 16
22 Western Kentucky @ 3.9551 28
23 Ohio St. @ 3.9351 17
24 Oregon 3.9123 34
25 Indiana 3.8666 20
26 Texas 3.7311 22
27 California 3.6325 29
28 Wake Forest 3.2179 24
29 North Carolina St. 3.0802 32
30 Oklahoma St. 2.9960 19
31 Southern California 2.4922 26
32 Pennsylvania @ 2.0097 36
33 Charlotte 1.9605 37
34 Utah 1.8878 31
35 Michigan St. 1.4046 35
36 Tulsa 1.3598 33
37 Central Connecticut @ 1.2445 53
38 Creighton @ 1.2088 44
39 Southern Illinois 1.1910 48
40 St. John's (NY) 1.0103 40
41 Mississippi 0.9287 45
42 Pepperdine 0.7096 49
43 Stanford 0.6911 38
44 San Diego St. @ 0.6816 39
45 UNLV (Miss) 0.4499 51
46 Boston College 0.3502 42
47 Notre Dame 0.2280 41
48 UCLA 0.1668 30
49 NC Wilmington @ 0.1666 57
50 Villanova (Miss) 0.0819 43
51 Wisconsin -0.0561 55
  Bubble Point    
52 Utah St. -0.2442 60
53 Bowling Green -0.2614 58
54 Missouri (Miss) -0.3133 54
55 South Carolina -0.3250 47
56 Wyoming (Miss) -0.4203 63
57 Georgetown -0.9356 56
58 Richmond -1.4393 74
59 LSU -1.7360 68
60 Louisville -1.9864 61
61 Memphis -2.1010 69
62 Valparaiso @ -2.1389 83
63 Butler -2.1833 77
64 Brigham Young -2.2574 52
65 McNeese St. @ -2.2739 89
66 Minnesota -2.2899 71
67 Louisiana Tech -2.3366 72
68 Dayton -2.3523 62
69 Tennessee -2.5233 65
70 Virginia -2.6120 50
71 Davidson @ -2.6715 79
72 Arkansas -2.7402 46
73 Temple -2.7500 80
74 St. Joseph's (PA) -2.8239 73
75 Ball St. -2.8367 78
76 Vanderbilt -2.9821 59
77 Hampton @ -3.1941 105
78 Iowa -3.3209 70
79 Cal Santa Barbara @ -3.3260 85
80 Syracuse -3.3812 67
81 Georgia St. -3.6205 94
82 VA Commonwealth -3.6697 87
83 Cal Irvine -3.7409 92
84 Princeton -3.7432