NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, February 19, 2017, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula has correctly predicted 173 of 182 at-large bids over the last five years combined (95%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Villanova
38.9700
100.00%
3
2
Kansas
34.0349
100.00%
1
3
Baylor
32.0564
100.00%
2
4
Louisville
30.0459
100.00%
4
5
North Carolina
28.3513
100.00%
9
6
Butler
27.9254
100.00%
12
7
Kentucky
27.7490
100.00%
6
8
Gonzaga
27.2016
100.00%
5
9
Florida
26.7757
100.00%
10
10
Duke
26.7723
100.00%
11
11
Florida St.
24.4916
100.00%
13
12
Arizona
23.1001
100.00%
8
13
Oregon
23.0231
100.00%
7
14
Notre Dame
20.7620
100.00%
23
15
Creighton
20.1761
100.00%
16
16
Maryland
19.8986
100.00%
15
17
Purdue
19.2270
100.00%
20
18
Virginia
17.5271
100.00%
19
19
UCLA
17.5052
100.00%
21
20
Wisconsin
16.8538
100.00%
26
21
Cincinnati
14.6550
100.00%
17
22
West Virginia
14.4404
100.00%
28
23
Xavier
12.7758
100.00%
22
24
Minnesota
12.5450
100.00%
18
25
Saint Mary's
12.1160
100.00%
14
26
South Carolina
11.9266
100.00%
29
27
Oklahoma St.
11.6950
100.00%
30
28
SMU
11.0050
100.00%
24
29
VCU
9.5661
100.00%
25
30
Dayton
8.8956
100.00%
27
31
Northwestern
7.9985
100.00%
34
32
Michigan St.
7.6046
100.00%
36
33
Virginia Tech
7.3108
100.00%
40
34
Arkansas
7.3080
100.00%
32
35
Middle Tennessee
6.2625
100.00%
33
36
USC
6.2622
100.00%
31
37
Miami FL
3.6136
99.98%
39
38
Iowa St.
3.3659
99.96%
41
39
Tennessee
2.8491
99.78%
43
40
Marquette
2.1450
98.40%
63
41
Vanderbilt
1.4373
92.47%
42
42
Providence
1.4162
92.16%
57
43
Wichita St.
1.0054
84.26%
37
44
Seton Hall
0.4968
69.03%
48
45
Michigan
0.1392
55.54%
44
46
UNC Wilmington
-1.2139
11.24%
52
47
Georgia Tech
-1.2550
10.47%
68
48
Illinois St.
-1.8774
3.02%
45
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
49
California
-1.8805
3.00%
35
50
Pittsburgh
-2.1273
1.67%
38
51
Georgetown
-2.6086
0.45%
49
52
Clemson
-2.7398
0.31%
56
53
Syracuse
-3.4278
0.03%
73
54
Nevada
-3.7060
0.01%
55
55
Kansas St.
-3.7751
0.01%
51
56
Wake Forest
-4.1420
0.00%
46
57
Rhode Island
-4.4686
0.00%
53
58
UT Arlington
-4.5644
0.00%
64
59
Penn St.
-6.1184
0.00%
66
60
Monmouth
-6.1242
0.00%
62
61
TCU
-6.1823
0.00%
47
62
Vermont
-6.2121
0.00%
65
63
Nebraska
-6.2173
0.00%
67
64
Houston
-6.2451
0.00%
59
65
Georgia
-6.2702
0.00%
50
66
Mississippi
-6.5067
0.00%
58
67
Alabama
-6.5944
0.00%
70
68
Illinois
-6.7181
0.00%
54
69
College of Charleston
-8.4264
0.00%
71
70
Akron
-9.0101
0.00%
60
71
Boise St.
-9.1609
0.00%
74
72
Indiana
-9.6719
0.00%
72
73
Belmont
-9.9612
0.00%
77
74
Valparaiso
-10.4258
0.00%
78
75
Winthrop
-10.4917
0.00%
85
76
Princeton
-10.8086
0.00%
75
77
New Mexico St.
-11.0644
0.00%
76
78
Stanford
-11.1027
0.00%
61
79
Ohio St.
-11.5385
0.00%
69
80
New Mexico
-12.1975
0.00%
79
81
Florida Gulf Coast
-12.5192
0.00%
87
82
San Francisco
-13.3695
0.00%
84
83
Texas Tech
-14.0484
0.00%
80
84
East Tennessee St.
-14.3019
0.00%
86
85
Texas A&M
-14.3978
0.00%
83
86
Bucknell
-14.4995
0.00%
97
87
UNC Asheville
-14.5656
0.00%
95
88
BYU
-15.1603
0.00%
82
89
Colorado St.
-15.4930
0.00%
88
90
San Diego St.
-15.8396
0.00%
91
91
Iowa
-16.3014
0.00%
92
92
Auburn
-16.4307
0.00%
81
93
Richmond
-16.8709
0.00%
94
94
St. Bonaventure
-17.3636
0.00%
90
95
Chattanooga
-17.3933
0.00%
103
96
Utah
-17.6412
0.00%
96
97
Towson
-18.0510
0.00%
98
98
Oakland
-18.0917
0.00%
109
99
La Salle
-18.1310
0.00%
93
100
UCF
-18.2488
0.00%
100
101
George Mason
-18.3947
0.00%
102
102
Arkansas St.
-18.4165
0.00%
107
103
Memphis
-18.4855
0.00%
104
104
Connecticut
-18.5046
0.00%
101
105
Colorado
-18.9457
0.00%
108
106
St. John's
-19.2191
0.00%
113
107
Temple
-19.2676
0.00%
99
108
Davidson
-19.3050
0.00%
111
109
UNC Greensboro
-19.7915
0.00%
114
110
Furman
-19.9374
0.00%
116
111
Ohio
-20.2842
0.00%
110
112
Cal St. Bakersfield
-21.0406
0.00%
115
113
North Carolina St.
-21.3195
0.00%
89
114
North Dakota St.
-21.6322
0.00%
112
115
Tulsa
-22.5317
0.00%
106
116
Wright St.
-22.8312
0.00%
122
117
Mississippi St.
-23.3512
0.00%
105
118
Fresno St.
-23.6896
0.00%
118
119
Iona
-24.2781
0.00%
125
120
Old Dominion
-24.6328
0.00%
127
121
Lehigh
-24.9075
0.00%
134
122
Louisiana Tech
-25.1255
0.00%
123
123
South Dakota
-25.3813
0.00%
124
124
Santa Clara
-26.0797
0.00%
130
125
Arizona St.
-26.6807
0.00%
120
126
George Washington
-26.9464
0.00%
121
127
Harvard
-27.0919
0.00%
136
128
San Jose St.
-27.4277
0.00%
132
129
Northern Iowa
-27.7635
0.00%
128
130
Georgia St.
-27.7822
0.00%
143
131
Marshall
-28.0193
0.00%
129
132
William & Mary
-29.0425
0.00%
133
133
Buffalo
-29.3062
0.00%
142
134
Canisius
-29.3141
0.00%
150
135
Grand Canyon
-29.3862
---
137
136
Texas
-29.4328
0.00%
117
137
Georgia Southern
-29.7299
0.00%
141
138
Elon
-29.8178
0.00%
144
139
Washington St.
-30.2733
0.00%
119
140
Saint Peter's
-30.3294
0.00%
146
141
Albany
-30.5052
0.00%
152
142
Eastern Washington
-30.6841
0.00%
148
143
Coastal Carolina
-31.0010
0.00%
138
144
Wyoming
-31.0104
0.00%
131
145
Yale
-31.0968
0.00%
149
146
Northern Kentucky
-31.7842
0.00%
157
147
Toledo
-32.1121
0.00%
145
148
Loyola Chicago
-32.4861
0.00%
140
149
Stony Brook
-32.7195
0.00%
158
150
Siena
-32.7995
0.00%
153
151
Northeastern
-32.8485
0.00%
159
152
Tennessee St.
-33.0850
0.00%
167
153
Loyola Marymount
-33.2038
0.00%
139
154
Southern Illinois
-33.3111
0.00%
155
155
Liberty
-33.7427
0.00%
162
156
Green Bay
-33.9106
0.00%
160
157
Louisiana Lafayette
-34.5404
0.00%
156
158
Fort Wayne
-34.7769
0.00%
164
159
Rice
-34.8538
0.00%
169
160
UC Irvine
-35.1896
0.00%
165
161
Lipscomb
-35.3654
0.00%
171
162
Oklahoma
-36.2679
0.00%
135
163
New Hampshire
-36.6444
0.00%
176
164
Texas Southern
-36.9881
0.00%
180
165
Samford
-37.2151
0.00%
175
166
Fordham
-37.4971
0.00%
173
167
Mount St. Mary's
-37.9234
0.00%
181
168
UMKC
-37.9955
0.00%
168
169
UMBC
-38.4350
0.00%
183
170
New Orleans
-38.5150
0.00%
178
171
LSU
-38.5289
0.00%
126
172
Ball St.
-38.7708
0.00%
179
173
UAB
-38.8508
0.00%
174
174
Boston University
-38.9387
0.00%
177
175
Massachusetts
-39.2465
0.00%
154
176
Central Michigan
-39.3127
0.00%
172
177
Denver
-40.1377
0.00%
187
178
Loyola MD
-40.2177
0.00%
182
179
Saint Joseph's
-40.2589
0.00%
151
180
Sam Houston St.
-40.9851
0.00%
185
181
Fairfield
-41.0730
0.00%
188
182
North Dakota
-41.3288
0.00%
189
183
Utah St.
-41.5285
0.00%
163
184
Tennessee Martin
-41.6725
0.00%
193
185
Rutgers
-41.7152
0.00%
147
186
Nebraska Omaha
-41.9283
0.00%
194
187
Penn
-42.2144
0.00%
186
188
Navy
-42.7757
0.00%
192
189
Evansville
-43.1224
0.00%
166
190
Morehead St.
-43.1994
0.00%
191
191
Jacksonville St.
-43.8947
0.00%
207
192
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-44.3105
0.00%
198
193
Weber St.
-44.3984
0.00%
201
194
Eastern Michigan
-44.7148
0.00%
184
195
North Carolina Central
-45.0058
0.00%
214
196
Kent St.
-45.2647
0.00%
205
197
Troy
-45.3337
0.00%
202
198
Boston College
-45.6720
0.00%
161
199
Missouri St.
-46.1314
0.00%
196
200
Western Michigan
-46.2611
0.00%
195
201
Mercer
-46.6718
0.00%
204
202
Wofford
-46.9485
0.00%
203
203
Holy Cross
-46.9564
0.00%
211
204
Hofstra
-47.9026
0.00%
190
205
San Diego
-48.3342
0.00%
197
206
Texas St.
-48.5712
0.00%
212
207
Rider
-48.8731
0.00%
220
208
South Alabama
-48.8861
0.00%
210
209
Washington
-48.9576
0.00%
170
210
USC Upstate
-49.8581
0.00%
225
211
South Dakota St.
-50.3330
0.00%
213
212
Stephen F. Austin
-50.7855
0.00%
218
213
Houston Baptist
-51.2092
0.00%
217
214
Long Beach St.
-51.5529
0.00%
221
215
Gardner Webb
-51.6487
0.00%
232
216
Montana
-51.7287
0.00%
227
217
Western Kentucky
-53.1756
0.00%
230
218
UNLV
-53.2168
0.00%
199
219
LIU Brooklyn
-53.4393
0.00%
239
220
Murray St.
-53.6211
0.00%
234
221
High Point
-53.6951
0.00%
240
222
UC Davis
-53.7751
0.00%
235
223
Indiana St.
-53.8792
0.00%
215
224
Radford
-54.5728
0.00%
229
225
East Carolina
-54.7134
0.00%
206
226
Northern Illinois
-54.9165
0.00%
233
227
Bowling Green
-55.0268
0.00%
219
228
Duquesne
-55.1971
0.00%
209
229
Idaho
-55.2220
0.00%
238
230
Pacific
-55.5190
0.00%
208
231
Wagner
-55.5736
0.00%
250
232
Charlotte
-56.0500
0.00%
223
233
Illinois Chicago
-56.1364
0.00%
241
234
UTEP
-56.6907
0.00%
246
235
Montana St.
-56.9247
0.00%
242
236
Tennessee Tech
-57.1005
0.00%
248
237
Pepperdine
-58.1267
0.00%
222
238
DePaul
-58.1376
0.00%
200
239
North Florida
-58.2037
0.00%
247
240
Bradley
-58.4704
0.00%
226
241
Air Force
-58.9244
0.00%
216
242
Quinnipiac
-58.9517
0.00%
237
243
Hawaii
-59.7385
0.00%
253
244
Missouri
-60.1094
0.00%
224
245
Alcorn St.
-60.1701
0.00%
260
246
IUPUI
-60.2883
0.00%
254
247
Norfolk St.
-60.4259
0.00%
261
248
Saint Louis
-60.4289
0.00%
231
249
Eastern Illinois
-61.4585
0.00%
258
250
Cal St. Northridge
-61.6170
0.00%
263
251
Columbia
-61.7352
0.00%
257
252
Little Rock
-62.1395
0.00%
243
253
Utah Valley
-62.1683
0.00%
249
254
Delaware
-62.3953
0.00%
244
255
Lamar
-62.6402
0.00%
267
256
Cleveland St.
-62.6814
0.00%
236
257
James Madison
-63.2124
0.00%
251
258
Portland
-63.9410
0.00%
228
259
Fairleigh Dickinson
-64.0871
0.00%
270
260
Manhattan
-64.3041
0.00%
245
261
Bryant
-65.2782
0.00%
272
262
Sacred Heart
-65.6298
0.00%
284
263
Southeastern Louisiana
-66.2805
0.00%
278
264
Youngstown St.
-66.9997
0.00%
262
265
Army
-67.0876
0.00%
265
266
Eastern Kentucky
-67.1179
0.00%
256
267
Robert Morris
-67.1949
0.00%
281
268
Appalachian St.
-67.4537
0.00%
252
269
Austin Peay
-67.5307
0.00%
277
270
Colgate
-67.9320
0.00%
293
271
Kennesaw St.
-68.8673
0.00%
294
272
Seattle
-68.9488
0.00%
274
273
Southeast Missouri St.
-69.0352
0.00%
292
274
Brown
-69.3019
0.00%
271
275
Campbell
-69.3595
0.00%
283
276
Central Arkansas
-69.4301
0.00%
285
277
Tulane
-70.2178
0.00%
259
278
Jacksonville
-70.3315
0.00%
298
279
Sacramento St.
-70.4821
0.00%
295
280
St. Francis PA
-70.5779
0.00%
306
281
Oral Roberts
-70.7200
0.00%
268
282
Drake
-71.1725
0.00%
273
283
Portland St.
-71.2490
0.00%
291
284
Incarnate Word
-72.0184
---
286
285
Binghamton
-72.2339
0.00%
276
286
Cornell
-72.5091
0.00%
290
287
Florida Atlantic
-72.6849
0.00%
296
288
Niagara
-72.7152
0.00%
287
289
Marist
-72.7758
0.00%
269
290
Western Carolina
-72.8349
0.00%
266
291
Milwaukee
-72.8543
0.00%
279
292
Nicholls St.
-72.9328
0.00%
289
293
Oregon St.
-73.0331
0.00%
255
294
Cal St. Fullerton
-73.0401
0.00%
305
295
UMass Lowell
-73.5035
---
288
296
Detroit
-73.6217
0.00%
282
297
Abilene Christian
-73.6699
---
301
298
Hampton
-73.8075
0.00%
308
299
UTSA
-74.0057
0.00%
297
300
Miami OH
-74.0166
0.00%
275
301
Drexel
-74.2306
0.00%
280
302
South Florida
-74.6558
0.00%
264
303
South Carolina St.
-75.2926
0.00%
310
304
Southern
-75.9418
0.00%
319
305
Savannah St.
-76.1976
0.00%
320
306
Charleston Southern
-76.2582
0.00%
302
307
Maryland Eastern Shore
-76.7092
0.00%
322
308
Prairie View A&M
-77.6157
0.00%
317
309
Dartmouth
-77.8809
0.00%
311
310
Morgan St.
-77.9882
0.00%
327
311
Jackson St.
-78.1561
0.00%
325
312
McNeese St.
-78.5107
0.00%
307
313
Northern Colorado
-79.3069
0.00%
316
314
UT Rio Grande Valley
-79.6730
0.00%
303
315
Cal Poly
-79.7897
0.00%
312
316
Grambling St.
-80.1146
0.00%
330
317
UC Riverside
-80.1240
0.00%
323
318
Delaware St.
-80.5253
0.00%
339
319
NJIT
-80.9023
0.00%
304
320
Western Illinois
-81.2063
0.00%
324
321
The Citadel
-81.5321
0.00%
300
322
Lafayette
-82.2101
0.00%
315
323
Coppin St.
-82.7317
0.00%
337
324
Louisiana Monroe
-82.7823
0.00%
299
325
VMI
-82.8608
0.00%
309
326
Hartford
-83.7449
0.00%
321
327
American
-84.0310
0.00%
313
328
Northwestern St.
-84.2262
0.00%
332
329
Alabama St.
-84.4344
0.00%
341
330
UC Santa Barbara
-84.8193
0.00%
314
331
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-85.0051
0.00%
340
332
Southern Miss
-85.3503
0.00%
329
333
Stetson
-85.4764
0.00%
331
334
North Texas
-85.9895
0.00%
318
335
Florida A&M
-86.5190
0.00%
348
336
Howard
-87.0018
0.00%
344
337
Chicago St.
-87.0415
0.00%
328
338
Northern Arizona
-87.7995
0.00%
338
339
Maine
-88.1829
0.00%
326
340
Mississippi Valley St.
-88.3990
0.00%
343
341
Idaho St.
-88.4293
0.00%
334
342
Longwood
-90.3381
0.00%
335
343
FIU
-90.5060
0.00%
333
344
Southern Utah
-90.5636
0.00%
345
345
Bethune Cookman
-90.6133
0.00%
349
346
Central Connecticut
-91.7929
0.00%
346
347
SIU Edwardsville
-94.0469
0.00%
336
348
Alabama A&M
-95.2574
0.00%
351
349
St. Francis NY
-95.7402
0.00%
347
350
Presbyterian
-96.1142
0.00%
342
351
North Carolina A&T
-96.5076
0.00%
350
   

This page last updated on Monday, February 20, 2017 at 9:38 a.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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