NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 13, 2016 (FINAL), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula has correctly predicted 141 of 146 at-large bids over the last four years combined (97%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Kansas
52.5566
100.00%
1
2
@Oregon
40.2964
100.00%
2
3
Villanova
38.6435
100.00%
3
4
Utah
35.6692
100.00%
8
5
Xavier
35.6550
100.00%
6
6
Oklahoma
34.1392
100.00%
7
7
Virginia
33.9133
100.00%
4
8
Miami FL
33.0337
100.00%
9
9
West Virginia
30.9099
100.00%
11
10
@Michigan St.
30.0928
100.00%
10
11
@North Carolina
29.6090
100.00%
5
12
@Kentucky
23.1879
100.00%
12
13
Texas
21.8875
100.00%
25
14
Texas A&M
21.2953
100.00%
23
15
@Seton Hall
20.7758
100.00%
20
16
California
20.4294
100.00%
19
17
Iowa St.
19.7526
100.00%
24
18
Baylor
19.7113
100.00%
21
19
Duke
18.5422
100.00%
14
20
Purdue
18.4208
100.00%
15
21
Indiana
18.0141
100.00%
27
22
@Saint Joseph's
15.9041
100.00%
16
23
Arizona
15.3601
100.00%
26
24
Iowa
15.2108
100.00%
29
25
SMU
15.1002
---
13
26
Wisconsin
14.6415
100.00%
32
27
Dayton
14.3856
100.00%
17
28
Louisville
14.2675
---
22
29
Providence
14.0970
100.00%
34
30
Maryland
13.3814
100.00%
18
31
Texas Tech
12.1257
100.00%
28
32
Notre Dame
10.6689
100.00%
31
33
Oregon St.
9.1453
100.00%
35
34
St. Bonaventure
8.0009
100.00%
37
35
@Connecticut
7.3596
100.00%
30
36
Butler
6.3344
100.00%
47
37
Colorado
5.9518
100.00%
40
38
VCU
5.0054
100.00%
36
39
Florida
4.8236
100.00%
44
40
Pittsburgh
4.3949
100.00%
39
41
USC
4.1775
100.00%
42
42
Cincinnati
3.7426
99.99%
43
43
Saint Mary's
3.4348
99.97%
41
44
San Diego St.
3.3654
99.96%
33
45
Temple
3.1213
99.91%
53
46
Michigan
2.8899
99.81%
48
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
47
Vanderbilt
2.7664
99.72%
59
48
@Gonzaga
2.6863
99.64%
38
49
@Chattanooga
1.8510
96.79%
61
50
Wichita St.
0.2958
61.63%
45
51
Valparaiso
-0.1215
45.16%
60
52
Monmouth
-0.3002
38.20%
65
53
Tulsa
-0.5291
29.84%
55
54
@Arkansas Little Rock
-0.6252
26.59%
54
55
Syracuse
-1.8532
3.19%
63
56
Washington
-1.8760
3.03%
67
57
@UNC Wilmington
-1.9044
2.84%
50
58
George Washington
-1.9153
2.77%
64
59
South Carolina
-2.1680
1.51%
62
60
@Northern Iowa
-2.2997
1.07%
79
61
Akron
-2.6828
0.37%
51
62
Georgia Tech
-2.7737
0.28%
52
63
Hofstra
-3.0103
0.13%
57
64
@South Dakota St.
-3.3214
0.04%
49
65
Ohio St.
-3.4011
0.03%
56
66
Alabama
-4.0386
0.00%
69
67
Virginia Tech
-4.2584
0.00%
75
68
Stanford
-4.8074
0.00%
68
69
Princeton
-5.7805
0.00%
58
70
Georgia
-5.9515
0.00%
46
71
LSU
-7.2900
0.00%
84
72
Houston
-7.4139
0.00%
77
73
Davidson
-7.8958
0.00%
66
74
@Fresno St.
-7.9505
0.00%
71
75
@Stony Brook
-8.1895
0.00%
76
76
@Yale
-8.8501
0.00%
70
77
Florida St.
-8.9898
0.00%
81
78
@Hawaii
-9.0479
0.00%
72
79
William & Mary
-9.7193
0.00%
73
80
@Stephen F. Austin
-10.8965
0.00%
78
81
BYU
-10.9322
0.00%
80
82
Marquette
-11.0219
0.00%
97
83
IPFW
-11.2620
0.00%
87
84
UC Irvine
-11.4960
0.00%
83
85
UAB
-11.6138
0.00%
90
86
Creighton
-12.9659
0.00%
96
87
Clemson
-13.6492
0.00%
110
88
@Iona
-13.7103
0.00%
89
89
Grand Canyon
-13.7431
---
92
90
@Middle Tennessee
-14.0461
0.00%
85
91
James Madison
-14.1529
0.00%
94
92
Long Beach St.
-14.5327
0.00%
95
93
Boise St.
-14.5844
0.00%
104
94
Ohio
-14.6377
0.00%
82
95
Kansas St.
-14.7744
0.00%
74
96
Evansville
-14.9014
0.00%
91
97
UCLA
-15.0257
0.00%
86
98
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-15.5888
0.00%
99
99
Northeastern
-16.0093
0.00%
111
100
East Tennessee St.
-17.2036
0.00%
100
101
Georgetown
-17.4507
0.00%
98
102
@Buffalo
-17.4515
0.00%
93
103
Mississippi
-18.0728
0.00%
103
104
UC Santa Barbara
-18.1468
0.00%
109
105
Arkansas
-18.6985
0.00%
105
106
Arizona St.
-19.7047
0.00%
88
107
Siena
-20.2071
0.00%
114
108
Rhode Island
-20.2115
0.00%
106
109
UT Arlington
-20.6169
0.00%
116
110
Northwestern
-20.9760
0.00%
102
111
Illinois St.
-21.3103
0.00%
113
112
Richmond
-21.5878
0.00%
107
113
New Mexico St.
-21.7201
0.00%
115
114
Belmont
-21.8080
0.00%
118
115
Oakland
-21.8159
0.00%
126
116
Memphis
-22.0599
0.00%
108
117
Albany
-22.1706
0.00%
128
118
@Weber St.
-23.1888
0.00%
123
119
Columbia
-23.2549
0.00%
121
120
Louisiana Monroe
-23.4228
0.00%
119
121
Southern Illinois
-23.4307
0.00%
127
122
North Carolina St.
-23.4608
0.00%
101
123
Pepperdine
-23.9780
0.00%
131
124
Kent St.
-24.1902
0.00%
122
125
Eastern Michigan
-24.2702
0.00%
117
126
Louisiana Tech
-24.3269
0.00%
135
127
Penn St.
-24.6093
0.00%
112
128
Marshall
-25.3813
0.00%
124
129
New Mexico
-25.6371
0.00%
125
130
Old Dominion
-26.3245
0.00%
133
131
@Green Bay
-26.4124
0.00%
136
132
Nevada
-26.6603
0.00%
129
133
Tennessee
-27.2005
0.00%
120
134
Vermont
-27.4356
0.00%
140
135
Fairfield
-27.6035
0.00%
138
136
@Cal St. Bakersfield
-28.3709
0.00%
141
137
UNLV
-28.3901
0.00%
137
138
College of Charleston
-28.4012
0.00%
132
139
@UNC Asheville
-28.7256
0.00%
143
140
Morehead St.
-29.3062
0.00%
142
141
Winthrop
-29.3941
0.00%
145
142
North Dakota St.
-29.8506
0.00%
147
143
Northern Illinois
-30.5773
0.00%
139
144
Nebraska Omaha
-30.6949
0.00%
155
145
Illinois
-30.7320
0.00%
130
146
Towson
-30.9507
0.00%
156
147
Tennessee Tech
-31.0089
0.00%
146
148
Nebraska
-31.9807
0.00%
144
149
Wright St.
-32.1499
0.00%
157
150
Western Kentucky
-33.3122
0.00%
153
151
Montana
-33.4869
0.00%
161
152
Central Michigan
-33.7348
0.00%
154
153
Mississippi St.
-34.1103
0.00%
134
154
Tennessee St.
-34.5101
0.00%
165
155
High Point
-34.5980
0.00%
168
156
Utah St.
-35.3381
0.00%
150
157
Ball St.
-35.3575
0.00%
163
158
Duquesne
-35.6801
0.00%
152
159
@Hampton
-35.8770
0.00%
173
160
Lehigh
-36.0449
0.00%
171
161
Coastal Carolina
-36.3007
0.00%
172
162
Milwaukee
-36.8341
0.00%
179
163
Elon
-37.1957
0.00%
162
164
Louisiana Lafayette
-37.5718
0.00%
169
165
Murray St.
-37.8276
0.00%
170
166
Fordham
-37.9170
0.00%
158
167
Bucknell
-38.0113
0.00%
184
168
Colorado St.
-38.3104
0.00%
166
169
Wagner
-38.7787
0.00%
187
170
Massachusetts
-39.3951
0.00%
159
171
North Florida
-39.5382
0.00%
182
172
Auburn
-40.0590
0.00%
160
173
Indiana St.
-40.0722
0.00%
167
174
Oral Roberts
-40.4253
0.00%
164
175
Idaho
-40.4814
0.00%
191
176
Western Carolina
-40.5535
0.00%
178
177
Furman
-41.3209
0.00%
181
178
Sam Houston St.
-41.3288
0.00%
189
179
Denver
-41.4470
0.00%
183
180
Radford
-41.4976
0.00%
194
181
New Hampshire
-41.5046
0.00%
195
182
Toledo
-41.5061
0.00%
180
183
Incarnate Word
-41.6725
---
193
184
TCU
-41.8014
0.00%
148
185
Georgia St.
-42.0977
0.00%
177
186
Boston University
-42.8715
0.00%
203
187
@Austin Peay
-42.9515
0.00%
198
188
Wyoming
-42.9833
0.00%
174
189
Oklahoma St.
-42.9995
0.00%
151
190
Navy
-43.4899
0.00%
214
191
Army
-43.8147
0.00%
212
192
Wake Forest
-44.2756
0.00%
149
193
Miami OH
-44.7451
0.00%
175
194
@Fairleigh Dickinson
-45.4295
0.00%
213
195
Detroit
-45.7574
0.00%
201
196
IUPUI
-45.7792
0.00%
206
197
@Florida Gulf Coast
-46.0132
0.00%
202
198
UTEP
-46.0932
0.00%
197
199
Harvard
-46.1314
0.00%
196
200
NJIT
-46.6206
0.00%
215
201
Saint Peter's
-47.3801
0.00%
210
202
Mercer
-47.8341
0.00%
200
203
Western Michigan
-48.4351
0.00%
190
204
@Southern
-48.7470
0.00%
218
205
Saint Louis
-49.2119
0.00%
186
206
Texas Southern
-49.6023
0.00%
224
207
George Mason
-49.9723
0.00%
188
208
Eastern Kentucky
-50.4303
0.00%
209
209
Tennessee Martin
-50.5565
0.00%
231
210
Wofford
-50.8734
0.00%
221
211
Bowling Green
-51.0392
0.00%
207
212
North Dakota
-51.1292
0.00%
222
213
San Francisco
-51.3944
0.00%
216
214
Charlotte
-51.7287
0.00%
227
215
UCF
-52.3103
0.00%
204
216
Gardner Webb
-52.3282
0.00%
232
217
South Dakota
-52.6540
0.00%
208
218
Norfolk St.
-52.9277
0.00%
237
219
South Carolina St.
-53.3514
0.00%
236
220
DePaul
-53.6220
0.00%
192
221
La Salle
-53.7555
0.00%
205
222
East Carolina
-53.7596
0.00%
199
223
Houston Baptist
-54.1988
0.00%
234
224
Missouri
-54.3006
---
185
225
Manhattan
-54.5728
0.00%
229
226
Loyola Chicago
-54.6220
0.00%
226
227
Canisius
-54.6910
0.00%
223
228
Missouri St.
-54.8286
0.00%
230
229
American
-54.9741
0.00%
245
230
UNC Greensboro
-55.9015
0.00%
238
231
Washington St.
-56.1309
0.00%
176
232
Jackson St.
-56.1652
0.00%
247
233
Loyola Marymount
-56.9435
0.00%
228
234
Georgia Southern
-57.0717
0.00%
242
235
Eastern Washington
-57.3563
0.00%
249
236
Mount St. Mary's
-58.6353
0.00%
254
237
Air Force
-58.6477
0.00%
217
238
Colgate
-58.6944
0.00%
251
239
LIU Brooklyn
-58.8990
0.00%
263
240
Rider
-59.0396
0.00%
240
241
South Alabama
-59.2954
0.00%
241
242
South Florida
-59.5621
0.00%
220
243
Texas St.
-60.0628
0.00%
244
244
Santa Clara
-60.2898
0.00%
239
245
Eastern Illinois
-60.5938
0.00%
259
246
@Holy Cross
-60.7502
0.00%
252
247
Tulane
-60.8123
0.00%
219
248
Portland
-60.9196
0.00%
235
249
Seattle
-62.0407
0.00%
262
250
Loyola MD
-62.0501
0.00%
255
251
Kennesaw St.
-62.3556
0.00%
260
252
Liberty
-62.4723
0.00%
269
253
Lipscomb
-62.7281
0.00%
270
254
Cornell
-63.7125
0.00%
248
255
FIU
-63.7910
0.00%
258
256
Idaho St.
-64.2629
0.00%
276
257
St. Francis PA
-64.3220
0.00%
273
258
Alcorn St.
-64.3508
0.00%
279
259
Penn
-64.4914
0.00%
256
260
Appalachian St.
-64.6096
0.00%
250
261
Rice
-64.8942
0.00%
257
262
St. John's
-65.0839
0.00%
211
263
Pacific
-65.3770
---
253
264
Cal Poly
-65.3864
0.00%
246
265
Sacred Heart
-65.5419
0.00%
281
266
Montana St.
-66.0247
0.00%
277
267
St. Francis NY
-66.1414
0.00%
286
268
Minnesota
-66.3076
0.00%
233
269
UMass Lowell
-66.9391
---
280
270
Drexel
-67.7780
0.00%
243
271
Sacramento St.
-68.0229
0.00%
266
272
Savannah St.
-68.0920
0.00%
283
273
Alabama St.
-68.1590
0.00%
288
274
Dartmouth
-68.1908
0.00%
264
275
UC Riverside
-68.4336
0.00%
275
276
UC Davis
-68.4754
0.00%
271
277
Utah Valley
-68.7888
0.00%
284
278
Portland St.
-68.8976
0.00%
285
279
Jacksonville
-69.5468
0.00%
294
280
Samford
-69.7141
0.00%
265
281
Arkansas St.
-70.2372
0.00%
272
282
Boston College
-70.3181
0.00%
225
283
Western Illinois
-70.5833
0.00%
268
284
North Texas
-70.6018
0.00%
274
285
Bethune Cookman
-71.4253
0.00%
304
286
Youngstown St.
-72.2627
0.00%
282
287
Robert Morris
-72.6258
0.00%
299
288
UMKC
-72.8170
0.00%
287
289
Cal St. Northridge
-73.4826
0.00%
290
290
Cleveland St.
-75.2250
0.00%
278
291
Hartford
-75.3114
0.00%
296
292
Northern Colorado
-75.8936
0.00%
300
293
Delaware
-76.3967
0.00%
267
294
Quinnipiac
-76.8974
0.00%
291
295
Binghamton
-77.0350
0.00%
298
296
Northern Kentucky
-77.8327
---
292
297
Rutgers
-77.8739
0.00%
261
298
Stetson
-78.1158
0.00%
314
299
Abilene Christian
-78.4422
0.00%
317
300
North Carolina Central
-78.5301
0.00%
320
301
Cal St. Fullerton
-78.7262
0.00%
297
302
Maryland Eastern Shore
-79.1008
0.00%
319
303
San Diego
-79.1638
0.00%
293
304
Charleston Southern
-79.7112
0.00%
302
305
Troy
-79.7206
0.00%
295
306
Florida Atlantic
-79.8200
0.00%
303
307
Southeastern Louisiana
-79.8588
0.00%
329
308
San Jose St.
-80.0773
0.00%
289
309
Campbell
-80.9102
0.00%
312
310
Brown
-81.0111
0.00%
305
311
Southern Miss
-81.3548
---
309
312
SIU Edwardsville
-81.5609
0.00%
306
313
Jacksonville St.
-81.8664
0.00%
311
314
Nicholls St.
-81.9161
0.00%
315
315
Howard
-81.9449
0.00%
321
316
Morgan St.
-82.3974
0.00%
326
317
Presbyterian
-82.9775
0.00%
318
318
Coppin St.
-82.9969
0.00%
331
319
USC Upstate
-83.1742
0.00%
322
320
Maine
-83.2924
0.00%
316
321
North Carolina A&T
-83.6173
0.00%
334
322
Bryant
-83.8328
0.00%
324
323
VMI
-84.0022
0.00%
307
324
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-84.0295
0.00%
328
325
Bradley
-84.1204
0.00%
301
326
Niagara
-84.2580
0.00%
308
327
Alabama A&M
-84.4820
0.00%
333
328
Mississippi Valley St.
-84.8466
0.00%
335
329
Prairie View A&M
-85.3582
0.00%
337
330
Longwood
-85.3676
0.00%
330
331
Marist
-86.5105
0.00%
313
332
McNeese St.
-87.0609
0.00%
341
333
UT Rio Grande Valley
-87.0912
0.00%
332
334
Central Arkansas
-87.3758
---
339
335
Drake
-88.7551
0.00%
310
336
The Citadel
-88.9006
0.00%
325
337
Lafayette
-89.0685
0.00%
323
338
New Orleans
-89.3134
0.00%
346
339
Northwestern St.
-89.9641
0.00%
340
340
Delaware St.
-90.4166
0.00%
345
341
Lamar
-90.7200
0.00%
338
342
UMBC
-90.7409
0.00%
336
343
Northern Arizona
-90.7712
0.00%
327
344
Florida A&M
-92.2663
0.00%
349
345
Southern Utah
-93.2492
0.00%
342
346
Southeast Missouri St.
-93.6138
0.00%
344
347
Grambling St.
-95.0016
0.00%
350
348
Illinois Chicago
-95.5435
0.00%
343
349
UTSA
-95.8872
0.00%
347
350
Central Connecticut
-96.0839
0.00%
351
351
Chicago St.
-98.4755
0.00%
348
   

This page last updated on Sunday, March 13, 2016 at 5:16 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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