NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Tuesday, February 28, 2017, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula has correctly predicted 173 of 182 at-large bids over the last five years combined (95%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Villanova
39.7207
100.00%
2
2
Kansas
35.4216
100.00%
1
3
Butler
34.4588
100.00%
11
4
Kentucky
32.6373
100.00%
5
5
Baylor
30.7225
100.00%
3
6
Florida
28.1237
100.00%
8
7
Louisville
27.6365
100.00%
4
8
North Carolina
27.4936
100.00%
10
9
Oregon
27.2570
100.00%
7
10
Florida St.
26.9538
100.00%
14
11
Arizona
26.0710
100.00%
6
12
Duke
23.9831
100.00%
12
13
Gonzaga
23.5622
100.00%
9
14
Virginia
23.5076
100.00%
17
15
UCLA
22.8941
100.00%
16
16
Purdue
22.2559
100.00%
19
17
Minnesota
19.7137
100.00%
13
18
Maryland
19.1033
100.00%
22
19
Notre Dame
18.8642
100.00%
21
20
West Virginia
17.5601
100.00%
25
21
Creighton
16.0554
100.00%
23
22
Cincinnati
14.5284
100.00%
18
23
SMU
13.5441
100.00%
20
24
Iowa St.
12.8507
100.00%
30
25
Saint Mary's
12.8313
100.00%
15
26
Michigan St.
12.7599
100.00%
32
27
Wisconsin
12.0923
100.00%
35
28
Dayton
11.5498
100.00%
24
29
South Carolina
11.0711
100.00%
26
30
Virginia Tech
10.6863
100.00%
36
31
Arkansas
10.4277
100.00%
29
32
Oklahoma St.
10.0508
100.00%
31
33
Miami FL
9.8167
100.00%
34
34
VCU
8.1440
100.00%
27
35
Providence
7.8696
100.00%
46
36
Middle Tennessee
7.3628
100.00%
33
37
Xavier
6.4274
100.00%
28
38
Michigan
5.8500
100.00%
40
39
Seton Hall
4.8130
100.00%
47
40
USC
4.4716
100.00%
38
41
Northwestern
3.0860
99.90%
48
42
Vanderbilt
2.1168
98.29%
42
43
Wichita St.
1.6849
95.40%
37
44
Illinois
0.9207
82.14%
45
45
Rhode Island
0.5377
70.46%
41
46
UNC Wilmington
-0.0039
49.84%
44
47
Marquette
-0.6059
27.23%
63
48
Illinois St.
-0.6863
24.63%
43
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
49
Nevada
-1.1669
12.16%
51
50
UT Arlington
-1.5827
5.67%
55
51
Monmouth
-1.6266
5.19%
53
52
Houston
-1.7504
4.00%
49
53
Ohio St.
-1.9492
2.56%
57
54
California
-2.0673
1.94%
39
55
Syracuse
-2.4929
0.63%
67
56
Tennessee
-3.1525
0.08%
60
57
Wake Forest
-3.1775
0.07%
52
58
Vermont
-3.3983
0.03%
54
59
Georgia
-4.3585
0.00%
50
60
Iowa
-5.5214
0.00%
73
61
BYU
-5.6096
0.00%
64
62
Mississippi
-6.5038
0.00%
59
63
College of Charleston
-6.6576
0.00%
69
64
Georgia Tech
-6.7138
0.00%
77
65
Belmont
-7.1474
0.00%
66
66
Kansas St.
-7.5156
0.00%
65
67
Princeton
-7.6590
0.00%
68
68
Valparaiso
-8.2614
0.00%
72
69
Winthrop
-8.4451
0.00%
86
70
UCF
-9.0948
0.00%
76
71
Indiana
-9.1452
0.00%
70
72
Boise St.
-9.1609
0.00%
74
73
Nebraska
-9.7020
0.00%
80
74
Pittsburgh
-9.7228
0.00%
58
75
Penn St.
-9.9205
0.00%
81
76
Clemson
-10.1197
0.00%
61
77
TCU
-10.1375
0.00%
56
78
Alabama
-10.4314
0.00%
85
79
Colorado St.
-10.4649
0.00%
71
80
Georgetown
-11.0203
0.00%
82
81
Stanford
-11.3585
0.00%
62
82
New Mexico St.
-11.5760
0.00%
78
83
Texas A&M
-11.8686
0.00%
79
84
Akron
-12.1676
0.00%
75
85
Bucknell
-12.2742
0.00%
93
86
East Tennessee St.
-12.8550
0.00%
83
87
Oakland
-13.6631
0.00%
97
88
Florida Gulf Coast
-13.7292
0.00%
95
89
UNC Asheville
-13.7982
0.00%
92
90
Richmond
-13.9800
0.00%
87
91
San Francisco
-14.4806
0.00%
91
92
Utah
-15.1711
0.00%
89
93
UNC Greensboro
-16.3672
0.00%
100
94
New Mexico
-16.6841
0.00%
90
95
Fresno St.
-16.8208
0.00%
103
96
Auburn
-16.9394
0.00%
84
97
Memphis
-17.1514
0.00%
99
98
Texas Tech
-17.5113
0.00%
88
99
St. Bonaventure
-18.2189
0.00%
96
100
George Mason
-18.2567
0.00%
108
101
San Diego St.
-18.3976
0.00%
101
102
Cal St. Bakersfield
-18.4826
0.00%
105
103
Tulsa
-19.0191
0.00%
102
104
Furman
-19.1700
0.00%
113
105
Connecticut
-19.4100
0.00%
98
106
Arkansas St.
-19.4179
0.00%
106
107
Towson
-19.5858
0.00%
104
108
Harvard
-19.7724
0.00%
117
109
La Salle
-20.4550
0.00%
107
110
St. John's
-20.9728
0.00%
115
111
Davidson
-21.1136
0.00%
109
112
Temple
-21.7898
0.00%
110
113
Old Dominion
-21.8190
0.00%
116
114
Colorado
-22.0333
0.00%
111
115
Northern Kentucky
-22.0638
0.00%
119
116
North Dakota St.
-22.4875
0.00%
118
117
Ohio
-22.6743
0.00%
122
118
George Washington
-22.9912
0.00%
112
119
North Carolina St.
-23.1762
0.00%
94
120
Wright St.
-23.5986
0.00%
125
121
South Dakota
-23.7665
0.00%
123
122
Lehigh
-23.8153
0.00%
133
123
Arizona St.
-24.7251
0.00%
114
124
Iona
-24.7897
0.00%
127
125
Georgia St.
-25.0563
0.00%
135
126
Louisiana Tech
-25.2134
0.00%
126
127
Santa Clara
-25.8239
0.00%
129
128
Northeastern
-26.0017
0.00%
140
129
Chattanooga
-26.0687
0.00%
132
130
Saint Peter's
-26.4124
0.00%
136
131
Louisiana Lafayette
-27.9472
0.00%
142
132
Loyola Marymount
-28.0575
0.00%
128
133
Marshall
-28.6188
0.00%
134
134
William & Mary
-28.8085
0.00%
137
135
Eastern Washington
-29.4051
0.00%
143
136
Rice
-29.4820
0.00%
148
137
Southern Illinois
-29.7299
0.00%
141
138
Georgia Southern
-29.8178
0.00%
144
139
Grand Canyon
-29.8978
---
139
140
Buffalo
-29.9057
0.00%
147
141
Albany
-30.2494
0.00%
151
142
Washington St.
-30.7258
0.00%
124
143
Mississippi St.
-30.9249
0.00%
120
144
Wyoming
-31.0104
0.00%
131
145
New Hampshire
-31.1047
0.00%
157
146
Elon
-31.3744
0.00%
155
147
Yale
-31.4405
0.00%
153
148
Siena
-31.7763
0.00%
149
149
Texas
-32.1090
0.00%
121
150
Northern Iowa
-32.1121
0.00%
145
151
Liberty
-32.2079
0.00%
156
152
Coastal Carolina
-32.3679
0.00%
146
153
Stony Brook
-32.9753
0.00%
159
154
Tennessee St.
-33.3408
0.00%
168
155
Canisius
-33.4069
0.00%
166
156
Lipscomb
-34.1743
0.00%
169
157
Green Bay
-34.2543
0.00%
164
158
Oklahoma
-34.3217
0.00%
130
159
Nebraska Omaha
-34.3422
0.00%
167
160
Toledo
-35.2408
0.00%
154
161
Fairfield
-35.6212
0.00%
172
162
Kent St.
-35.7201
0.00%
173
163
San Jose St.
-35.7315
0.00%
158
164
Utah St.
-36.3822
0.00%
152
165
UC Irvine
-36.4686
0.00%
170
166
Fordham
-36.6963
0.00%
181
167
Western Michigan
-36.7165
0.00%
163
168
Fort Wayne
-36.9112
0.00%
175
169
UMBC
-37.1560
0.00%
178
170
Ball St.
-37.3239
0.00%
176
171
Loyola Chicago
-37.6021
0.00%
160
172
Massachusetts
-37.9317
0.00%
150
173
UAB
-38.0834
0.00%
171
174
Texas Southern
-38.6987
0.00%
192
175
Tennessee Martin
-39.1145
0.00%
183
176
Boston University
-39.5382
0.00%
182
177
Mount St. Mary's
-39.7140
0.00%
188
178
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-40.0498
0.00%
184
179
North Dakota
-40.1377
0.00%
187
180
UMKC
-40.2977
0.00%
177
181
Mercer
-40.5614
0.00%
186
182
Eastern Michigan
-40.6508
0.00%
174
183
New Orleans
-41.8404
0.00%
191
184
Samford
-41.8786
0.00%
190
185
LSU
-41.9943
0.00%
138
186
Evansville
-42.0302
0.00%
165
187
Hofstra
-42.3326
0.00%
180
188
Gardner Webb
-42.7836
0.00%
200
189
Morehead St.
-43.7110
0.00%
193
190
Sam Houston St.
-43.7989
0.00%
196
191
Penn
-43.8371
0.00%
195
192
Texas St.
-43.9668
0.00%
194
193
Weber St.
-44.3984
0.00%
201
194
Rider
-44.4942
0.00%
212
195
Navy
-44.5663
0.00%
199
196
Wofford
-44.7342
0.00%
197
197
Holy Cross
-44.9100
0.00%
203
198
Jacksonville St.
-45.2616
0.00%
215
199
San Diego
-45.2646
0.00%
185
200
Denver
-45.5095
0.00%
208
201
Troy
-46.6127
0.00%
207
202
North Carolina Central
-46.8843
0.00%
224
203
Boston College
-46.9042
0.00%
161
204
Rutgers
-47.2052
0.00%
162
205
LIU Brooklyn
-47.9875
0.00%
223
206
Bowling Green
-48.1490
0.00%
198
207
Loyola MD
-48.2066
0.00%
210
208
Houston Baptist
-48.3154
0.00%
211
209
South Dakota St.
-48.4833
0.00%
209
210
Stephen F. Austin
-48.8270
0.00%
213
211
Saint Joseph's
-49.0743
0.00%
179
212
Missouri St.
-49.3192
0.00%
202
213
Central Michigan
-50.2336
0.00%
205
214
UC Davis
-50.4497
0.00%
222
215
Montana
-51.9845
0.00%
228
216
Idaho
-52.4082
0.00%
227
217
High Point
-52.4161
0.00%
235
218
Bradley
-53.0683
0.00%
214
219
UTEP
-53.6180
0.00%
244
220
Wagner
-53.7830
0.00%
243
221
East Carolina
-54.0339
0.00%
206
222
Montana St.
-54.3667
0.00%
232
223
Indiana St.
-54.3908
0.00%
217
224
Utah Valley
-54.5519
0.00%
231
225
Washington
-54.6443
0.00%
189
226
USC Upstate
-55.0332
0.00%
242
227
Northern Illinois
-55.0635
0.00%
233
228
Murray St.
-55.4117
0.00%
241
229
South Alabama
-55.4584
0.00%
226
230
Radford
-55.8518
0.00%
234
231
North Florida
-55.9015
0.00%
238
232
Long Beach St.
-56.1573
0.00%
239
233
Western Kentucky
-56.3634
0.00%
236
234
Charlotte
-56.5616
0.00%
225
235
Saint Louis
-57.8709
0.00%
221
236
Alcorn St.
-57.9558
0.00%
254
237
IUPUI
-57.9861
0.00%
245
238
DePaul
-58.0506
0.00%
204
239
Hawaii
-58.2037
---
247
240
UNLV
-59.2184
0.00%
216
241
Pepperdine
-59.2681
0.00%
220
242
Robert Morris
-59.6585
0.00%
258
243
Columbia
-59.6888
0.00%
249
244
Pacific
-59.9858
0.00%
219
245
Illinois Chicago
-60.4065
0.00%
248
246
Duquesne
-60.4095
0.00%
218
247
Lamar
-60.9375
0.00%
263
248
Little Rock
-61.3721
0.00%
240
249
Tennessee Tech
-61.9607
0.00%
267
250
Air Force
-62.2498
0.00%
229
251
Cal St. Northridge
-63.6634
0.00%
271
252
Army
-63.7031
0.00%
255
253
Austin Peay
-63.7816
0.00%
265
254
James Madison
-63.8119
0.00%
256
255
Seattle
-63.9207
0.00%
257
256
Missouri
-64.1237
0.00%
230
257
Eastern Kentucky
-64.1859
0.00%
251
258
Nicholls St.
-64.2053
0.00%
264
259
Norfolk St.
-64.2629
0.00%
276
260
Bryant
-64.5108
0.00%
269
261
Quinnipiac
-64.6975
0.00%
253
262
Southeastern Louisiana
-64.7457
0.00%
272
263
St. Francis PA
-65.2061
0.00%
285
264
Cleveland St.
-65.2394
0.00%
246
265
Delaware
-65.5831
0.00%
250
266
Kennesaw St.
-65.6298
0.00%
284
267
Brown
-66.0644
0.00%
261
268
Campbell
-66.2308
0.00%
274
269
Abilene Christian
-67.1070
---
278
270
Fairleigh Dickinson
-67.4125
0.00%
283
271
Manhattan
-67.7477
0.00%
252
272
Portland
-67.8962
0.00%
237
273
Portland St.
-68.3170
0.00%
286
274
Eastern Illinois
-68.4242
0.00%
282
275
Cal St. Fullerton
-68.9473
0.00%
289
276
Southeast Missouri St.
-69.2910
0.00%
293
277
Western Carolina
-69.5383
0.00%
259
278
Detroit
-69.8135
0.00%
273
279
Miami OH
-70.3266
0.00%
260
280
Florida Atlantic
-70.6385
0.00%
288
281
Hampton
-70.8258
0.00%
299
282
Oral Roberts
-71.0349
0.00%
266
283
Sacred Heart
-71.3756
0.00%
300
284
Youngstown St.
-71.9781
0.00%
275
285
Marist
-72.5200
0.00%
268
286
Morgan St.
-72.7043
0.00%
309
287
Charleston Southern
-72.7058
0.00%
294
288
Savannah St.
-72.7922
0.00%
312
289
Colgate
-73.1662
0.00%
307
290
South Carolina St.
-73.1871
0.00%
305
291
Central Arkansas
-73.6411
0.00%
295
292
Sacramento St.
-73.8075
0.00%
308
293
UTSA
-74.3494
0.00%
301
294
Cal Poly
-74.4755
0.00%
303
295
Drake
-74.6161
0.00%
280
296
UMass Lowell
-74.8416
---
290
297
The Citadel
-75.1659
0.00%
281
298
Incarnate Word
-75.9145
---
298
299
Southern
-75.9418
0.00%
319
300
Cornell
-75.9527
0.00%
297
301
Maryland Eastern Shore
-76.0297
0.00%
322
302
Jacksonville
-76.3331
0.00%
315
303
Tulane
-76.4752
0.00%
277
304
Oregon St.
-76.4767
0.00%
262
305
Niagara
-76.6704
0.00%
296
306
Appalachian St.
-76.8398
0.00%
279
307
South Florida
-77.0171
0.00%
270
308
Milwaukee
-77.3802
0.00%
287
309
Jackson St.
-77.4766
0.00%
325
310
NJIT
-77.5769
0.00%
291
311
Prairie View A&M
-77.6445
0.00%
323
312
Drexel
-78.9532
0.00%
292
313
American
-79.5433
0.00%
304
314
Grambling St.
-79.6909
0.00%
331
315
Northern Colorado
-80.3892
0.00%
317
316
Dartmouth
-80.8129
0.00%
316
317
Coppin St.
-81.2848
0.00%
334
318
Binghamton
-81.5609
0.00%
306
319
Lafayette
-81.8455
0.00%
313
320
McNeese St.
-81.9543
0.00%
314
321
Delaware St.
-82.1783
0.00%
339
322
Western Illinois
-82.8593
0.00%
324
323
Louisiana Monroe
-82.8702
0.00%
302
324
UC Santa Barbara
-82.9696
0.00%
310
325
UT Rio Grande Valley
-83.3724
0.00%
311
326
Northwestern St.
-83.4588
0.00%
329
327
Hartford
-83.7449
0.00%
321
328
Southern Miss
-83.9034
0.00%
326
329
UC Riverside
-84.3350
0.00%
333
330
Maine
-85.1421
0.00%
320
331
Mississippi Valley St.
-85.7819
0.00%
336
332
Howard
-86.8051
0.00%
340
333
Northern Arizona
-86.8642
0.00%
337
334
Stetson
-86.8736
0.00%
330
335
Alabama St.
-87.4255
0.00%
343
336
VMI
-87.6425
0.00%
318
337
Florida A&M
-88.4278
0.00%
349
338
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-88.5078
0.00%
344
339
Bethune Cookman
-88.5957
0.00%
347
340
Chicago St.
-88.6945
0.00%
328
341
North Texas
-89.9447
0.00%
327
342
Idaho St.
-90.3381
0.00%
335
343
Central Connecticut
-91.5371
0.00%
345
344
SIU Edwardsville
-92.1972
0.00%
332
345
Southern Utah
-92.4724
0.00%
346
346
FIU
-93.4380
0.00%
338
347
Longwood
-94.3524
0.00%
341
348
Alabama A&M
-95.8281
0.00%
350
349
St. Francis NY
-97.6490
0.00%
348
350
Presbyterian
-98.5937
0.00%
342
351
North Carolina A&T
-99.2429
0.00%
351
   

This page last updated on Wednesday, March 1, 2017 at 6:51 a.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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