NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Monday, March 2, 2015, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula has correctly predicted 108 of 110 at-large bids over the last three years combined (98%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Kentucky
44.0016
100.00%
1
2
Virginia
41.0226
100.00%
2
3
Villanova
36.5298
100.00%
6
4
Duke
36.4340
100.00%
4
5
Kansas
34.5273
100.00%
3
6
Wisconsin
32.4233
100.00%
5
7
Arizona
29.6941
100.00%
7
8
Iowa St.
28.9646
100.00%
14
9
Oklahoma
27.4929
100.00%
18
10
Baylor
24.9103
100.00%
10
11
Gonzaga
22.2637
100.00%
8
12
Louisville
20.1953
100.00%
12
13
Maryland
18.4345
100.00%
9
14
North Carolina
18.2038
100.00%
11
15
Providence
17.8216
100.00%
20
16
West Virginia
16.9716
100.00%
19
17
VCU
15.7195
100.00%
16
18
Utah
15.1369
100.00%
15
19
Arkansas
15.0292
100.00%
23
20
Wichita St.
14.9658
100.00%
13
21
Notre Dame
14.0227
100.00%
25
22
St. John's
14.0086
100.00%
26
23
Butler
13.0265
100.00%
24
24
Northern Iowa
12.8205
100.00%
22
25
Georgetown
10.9988
100.00%
17
26
SMU
10.1218
100.00%
21
27
Michigan St.
9.7421
100.00%
28
28
Georgia
9.6133
100.00%
33
29
North Carolina St.
9.4420
100.00%
32
30
LSU
9.3715
100.00%
40
31
Xavier
9.3009
100.00%
37
32
Oregon
8.6147
100.00%
27
33
Oklahoma St.
8.4687
100.00%
41
34
San Diego St.
7.9514
100.00%
29
35
Iowa
6.3364
100.00%
34
36
Indiana
6.0256
100.00%
38
37
Mississippi
5.7292
100.00%
43
38
Texas
5.6095
100.00%
30
39
Purdue
5.3989
100.00%
54
40
Cincinnati
3.8445
99.99%
46
41
Tulsa
3.7895
99.99%
39
42
Kansas St.
3.2027
99.93%
62
43
BYU
3.0107
99.87%
35
44
Boise St.
2.8324
99.77%
45
45
Colorado St.
2.4384
99.26%
31
46
Ohio St.
2.2874
98.89%
36
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
47
Temple
2.2795
98.87%
44
48
Davidson
2.2277
98.70%
50
49
Dayton
0.7827
78.31%
47
50
Texas A&M
0.6179
73.17%
42
51
Syracuse
-0.6284
---
51
52
Pittsburgh
-0.8044
21.06%
48
53
Stanford
-1.3676
8.57%
52
54
Miami FL
-1.6155
5.31%
58
55
Old Dominion
-2.0093
2.23%
53
56
Illinois
-2.6858
0.36%
57
57
Wofford
-3.1533
0.08%
60
58
Richmond
-3.3543
0.04%
59
59
Clemson
-3.5657
0.02%
73
60
UCLA
-4.2267
0.00%
49
61
Connecticut
-4.7019
0.00%
66
62
Buffalo
-5.0131
0.00%
55
63
Rhode Island
-5.3287
0.00%
64
64
Saint Mary's
-5.3707
0.00%
56
65
Massachusetts
-5.4995
0.00%
61
66
Murray St.
-6.2121
0.00%
65
67
Stephen F. Austin
-6.5668
0.00%
67
68
Harvard
-7.5021
0.00%
68
69
Iona
-8.6822
0.00%
72
70
Michigan
-9.2818
0.00%
63
71
Seton Hall
-9.2950
0.00%
70
72
Green Bay
-9.7964
0.00%
69
73
Toledo
-10.0601
0.00%
78
74
Louisiana Tech
-11.0644
0.00%
76
75
Yale
-11.2402
0.00%
82
76
Memphis
-11.2462
0.00%
71
77
Valparaiso
-11.2512
0.00%
80
78
Florida
-11.8591
0.00%
74
79
Illinois St.
-12.5113
0.00%
79
80
UTEP
-13.1247
0.00%
81
81
Minnesota
-13.7405
0.00%
75
82
Central Michigan
-13.7512
0.00%
91
83
UC Davis
-13.7982
0.00%
92
84
Alabama
-13.8563
0.00%
77
85
Vanderbilt
-13.9103
0.00%
87
86
Bowling Green
-13.9661
0.00%
90
87
Arizona St.
-13.9963
0.00%
84
88
Wyoming
-14.0126
0.00%
99
89
California
-14.4529
0.00%
83
90
Tennessee
-14.6562
0.00%
88
91
UNLV
-15.0885
0.00%
85
92
George Washington
-15.3140
0.00%
95
93
Eastern Washington
-15.5117
0.00%
103
94
South Carolina
-16.1359
0.00%
86
95
Evansville
-16.3233
0.00%
102
96
La Salle
-16.6973
0.00%
97
97
High Point
-16.7799
0.00%
101
98
Oregon St.
-18.0990
0.00%
100
99
St. Bonaventure
-19.1589
0.00%
118
100
Georgia St.
-19.6737
0.00%
107
101
Wake Forest
-19.7093
0.00%
89
102
Kent St.
-20.1853
0.00%
109
103
Albany
-20.8806
0.00%
125
104
Chattanooga
-20.9527
0.00%
112
105
Northeastern
-21.0406
0.00%
115
106
Western Kentucky
-21.0435
0.00%
114
107
Sam Houston St.
-21.2085
0.00%
113
108
Northwestern
-21.2551
0.00%
93
109
Florida St.
-22.0574
0.00%
96
110
Colorado
-22.4741
0.00%
94
111
James Madison
-22.7433
0.00%
119
112
South Dakota St.
-22.9112
0.00%
117
113
Washington
-22.9710
0.00%
104
114
UC Santa Barbara
-23.1591
0.00%
110
115
Akron
-23.2580
0.00%
111
116
William & Mary
-24.4460
0.00%
123
117
Utah St.
-24.4867
0.00%
134
118
Rider
-24.6297
0.00%
137
119
TCU
-24.8666
0.00%
98
120
Pepperdine
-25.1660
0.00%
143
121
UC Irvine
-25.2134
0.00%
126
122
Stony Brook
-25.6450
0.00%
133
123
Creighton
-26.0406
0.00%
116
124
New Mexico St.
-26.1487
0.00%
127
125
Western Michigan
-26.4045
0.00%
128
126
Nebraska
-26.4511
0.00%
108
127
Loyola Chicago
-26.4645
0.00%
132
128
UAB
-26.7403
0.00%
124
129
Hawaii
-26.8610
0.00%
130
130
Long Beach St.
-27.2737
0.00%
131
131
Florida Gulf Coast
-28.4509
0.00%
136
132
Georgia Tech
-28.7211
0.00%
105
133
Cleveland St.
-28.9625
0.00%
138
134
Georgia Southern
-29.2262
0.00%
147
135
Auburn
-29.2370
0.00%
120
136
North Carolina Central
-29.4820
0.00%
148
137
Louisiana Monroe
-29.7378
0.00%
149
138
Bucknell
-30.0736
0.00%
145
139
Oakland
-30.4094
0.00%
141
140
Lafayette
-30.7610
0.00%
153
141
San Diego
-31.0610
0.00%
142
142
Penn St.
-31.0804
0.00%
106
143
Radford
-31.2726
0.00%
155
144
Sacramento St.
-31.3526
0.00%
150
145
Marquette
-31.4290
0.00%
122
146
Charleston Southern
-31.6302
0.00%
156
147
DePaul
-32.1954
0.00%
139
148
North Dakota St.
-32.5437
0.00%
152
149
Washington St.
-32.8819
0.00%
140
150
Belmont
-32.9753
0.00%
159
151
Lehigh
-32.9942
0.00%
165
152
Eastern Kentucky
-33.0632
0.00%
162
153
Texas Tech
-33.0948
0.00%
121
154
Columbia
-33.3414
0.00%
146
155
Boston College
-33.7822
0.00%
129
156
Portland
-33.8033
0.00%
144
157
Indiana St.
-33.8227
0.00%
157
158
Montana
-33.9106
0.00%
160
159
UNC Wilmington
-34.2543
0.00%
164
160
Canisius
-34.7659
0.00%
166
161
St. Francis NY
-35.1975
0.00%
173
162
Louisiana Lafayette
-35.5443
0.00%
167
163
Texas Southern
-35.5630
0.00%
182
164
New Mexico
-35.8427
0.00%
151
165
UT Arlington
-36.0449
0.00%
171
166
Hofstra
-36.0528
0.00%
179
167
Incarnate Word
-36.3007
0.00%
172
168
Oral Roberts
-36.4794
0.00%
177
169
Coastal Carolina
-36.6444
0.00%
176
170
Middle Tennessee
-36.7165
0.00%
163
171
Rutgers
-37.4007
0.00%
135
172
Tulane
-37.7803
0.00%
158
173
Saint Joseph's
-37.8408
0.00%
169
174
Gardner Webb
-38.1713
0.00%
174
175
Eastern Illinois
-38.5150
0.00%
178
176
Fresno St.
-38.8944
0.00%
184
177
Monmouth
-39.2903
0.00%
189
178
Eastern Michigan
-39.5109
0.00%
161
179
Norfolk St.
-39.6261
0.00%
185
180
Tennessee Martin
-40.3135
0.00%
193
181
Northwestern St.
-40.8172
0.00%
187
182
American
-41.3591
0.00%
180
183
Robert Morris
-41.4167
0.00%
192
184
Mount St. Mary's
-41.8404
0.00%
191
185
Bryant
-41.9283
0.00%
194
186
Mississippi St.
-42.2089
0.00%
170
187
San Francisco
-42.4126
0.00%
175
188
NJIT
-42.9814
0.00%
202
189
North Texas
-43.1115
0.00%
188
190
Colgate
-44.1426
0.00%
200
191
Boston University
-44.3105
0.00%
198
192
Northern Illinois
-44.6269
0.00%
181
193
East Tennessee St.
-44.7724
0.00%
196
194
Manhattan
-45.0779
0.00%
201
195
Missouri
-45.1136
0.00%
154
196
North Florida
-45.1737
0.00%
212
197
Detroit
-45.8756
0.00%
195
198
Santa Clara
-45.9059
0.00%
186
199
Vermont
-45.9332
0.00%
207
200
Maryland Eastern Shore
-46.1169
0.00%
221
201
Quinnipiac
-46.2193
0.00%
199
202
Holy Cross
-47.0667
0.00%
197
203
Mercer
-47.3801
0.00%
210
204
Northern Arizona
-47.7238
0.00%
214
205
USC
-47.7665
0.00%
168
206
New Hampshire
-48.0675
0.00%
218
207
Milwaukee
-48.4833
0.00%
209
208
Cal Poly
-48.5806
0.00%
205
209
Princeton
-48.9949
0.00%
211
210
IPFW
-49.0028
0.00%
219
211
Charlotte
-50.1745
0.00%
208
212
East Carolina
-50.3563
0.00%
203
213
St. Francis PA
-50.4497
0.00%
222
214
South Dakota
-50.4576
0.00%
230
215
Cornell
-50.5679
0.00%
216
216
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-50.8813
0.00%
229
217
George Mason
-50.9146
0.00%
190
218
Miami OH
-51.1595
0.00%
213
219
USC Upstate
-52.1603
0.00%
234
220
UC Riverside
-52.7440
0.00%
223
221
Morehead St.
-52.9277
0.00%
237
222
Drexel
-53.0077
0.00%
232
223
Idaho
-53.1866
0.00%
228
224
Virginia Tech
-53.3583
0.00%
183
225
UCF
-53.6693
0.00%
204
226
Dartmouth
-53.7254
0.00%
231
227
Winthrop
-53.7940
0.00%
241
228
Portland St.
-54.7983
0.00%
239
229
UTSA
-54.8365
0.00%
238
230
Duquesne
-55.5905
0.00%
217
231
Fordham
-55.6869
0.00%
206
232
Denver
-55.8821
0.00%
225
233
Army
-56.8635
0.00%
233
234
Brown
-56.9682
0.00%
240
235
Sacred Heart
-57.0126
0.00%
245
236
Delaware St.
-57.3642
0.00%
257
237
Northern Kentucky
-57.5242
0.00%
247
238
Hartford
-57.6503
0.00%
249
239
Western Carolina
-57.9558
0.00%
254
240
Ohio
-57.9891
0.00%
215
241
Texas St.
-58.0164
0.00%
236
242
Air Force
-58.3234
0.00%
226
243
Northern Colorado
-58.4595
0.00%
248
244
Missouri St.
-58.5886
0.00%
220
245
Drake
-59.4057
0.00%
227
246
UNC Asheville
-59.4906
0.00%
260
247
Lamar
-59.6506
0.00%
250
248
Delaware
-59.6585
0.00%
258
249
LIU Brooklyn
-59.8646
0.00%
255
250
Saint Peter's
-60.0707
0.00%
252
251
Navy
-60.2004
0.00%
251
252
Arkansas Little Rock
-60.4274
0.00%
246
253
Grand Canyon
-61.3612
0.00%
262
254
Alabama St.
-61.7928
0.00%
269
255
Saint Louis
-61.9443
0.00%
224
256
Pacific
-62.7196
0.00%
235
257
Weber St.
-63.2700
0.00%
263
258
IUPUI
-63.7319
0.00%
261
259
Loyola MD
-63.8119
0.00%
256
260
Rice
-64.4611
0.00%
265
261
FIU
-64.5872
0.00%
267
262
Southern
-64.8624
0.00%
281
263
Howard
-64.9503
0.00%
284
264
Prairie View A&M
-65.2061
0.00%
285
265
Southeast Missouri St.
-65.8280
0.00%
273
266
SIU Edwardsville
-65.9577
0.00%
272
267
Arkansas St.
-65.9844
0.00%
266
268
Seattle
-66.0456
0.00%
275
269
Loyola Marymount
-66.1250
0.00%
243
270
Siena
-66.1523
0.00%
264
271
Marshall
-66.5875
0.00%
268
272
Wright St.
-67.4998
0.00%
259
273
Elon
-67.6871
0.00%
270
274
Houston
-68.2017
0.00%
242
275
McNeese St.
-68.3572
0.00%
277
276
UMass Lowell
-68.4242
0.00%
282
277
South Florida
-68.7133
0.00%
244
278
UMKC
-68.7794
0.00%
291
279
Appalachian St.
-69.3595
0.00%
283
280
Cal St. Bakersfield
-70.4131
0.00%
298
281
Penn
-70.7279
0.00%
276
282
Hampton
-70.9137
0.00%
302
283
Niagara
-70.9246
0.00%
280
284
Ball St.
-71.0155
0.00%
253
285
VMI
-71.0622
0.00%
287
286
Wagner
-71.2798
0.00%
289
287
Cal St. Northridge
-71.4874
0.00%
271
288
Lipscomb
-71.5053
0.00%
299
289
Towson
-73.7766
0.00%
290
290
South Alabama
-73.7881
0.00%
295
291
Houston Baptist
-73.8969
0.00%
296
292
Samford
-74.2500
0.00%
293
293
Southern Miss
-74.9310
0.00%
278
294
Southern Illinois
-75.3338
0.00%
279
295
Tennessee Tech
-75.4714
0.00%
286
296
Bradley
-76.3873
0.00%
274
297
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-76.5125
0.00%
318
298
Nevada
-76.6322
0.00%
297
299
Nebraska Omaha
-77.0638
0.00%
304
300
Utah Valley
-77.4284
0.00%
306
301
Fairfield
-77.6360
0.00%
288
302
Southern Utah
-77.9688
0.00%
314
303
Jacksonville St.
-78.0791
0.00%
300
304
Jackson St.
-78.3319
0.00%
331
305
South Carolina St.
-78.8147
0.00%
327
306
Presbyterian
-79.0223
0.00%
309
307
Illinois Chicago
-79.3084
0.00%
301
308
Troy
-79.7991
0.00%
305
309
UNC Greensboro
-79.8776
0.00%
315
310
Youngstown St.
-80.1443
0.00%
294
311
College of Charleston
-80.3122
0.00%
292
312
Coppin St.
-80.3798
0.00%
324
313
North Dakota
-80.5665
0.00%
308
314
Southeastern Louisiana
-80.6947
0.00%
322
315
Alabama A&M
-81.1760
0.00%
333
316
Nicholls St.
-81.4924
0.00%
316
317
The Citadel
-81.5803
0.00%
319
318
Savannah St.
-81.6891
0.00%
320
319
Kennesaw St.
-82.6035
0.00%
323
320
Furman
-83.0575
0.00%
313
321
Austin Peay
-83.9431
0.00%
310
322
Campbell
-84.1989
0.00%
311
323
Florida Atlantic
-84.7790
0.00%
303
324
Bethune Cookman
-84.8163
0.00%
344
325
New Orleans
-84.8178
0.00%
329
326
Cal St. Fullerton
-84.8287
0.00%
307
327
Western Illinois
-85.1342
0.00%
312
328
Montana St.
-85.2509
0.00%
321
329
Fairleigh Dickinson
-85.3482
0.00%
317
330
Chicago St.
-85.4382
0.00%
332
331
North Carolina A&T
-85.6637
0.00%
342
332
Binghamton
-85.7531
0.00%
330
333
Morgan St.
-86.2056
0.00%
335
334
Longwood
-86.2150
0.00%
328
335
Texas Pan American
-86.7763
0.00%
334
336
Abilene Christian
-86.9536
0.00%
325
337
Marist
-87.3564
0.00%
326
338
Jacksonville
-87.6316
0.00%
340
339
Stetson
-88.9409
0.00%
336
340
Mississippi Valley St.
-90.2487
0.00%
347
341
Alcorn St.
-92.2663
0.00%
349
342
Central Connecticut
-92.7585
0.00%
338
343
Maine
-93.0143
0.00%
339
344
Idaho St.
-93.1519
0.00%
346
345
UMBC
-93.3580
0.00%
343
346
Tennessee St.
-94.2054
0.00%
341
347
Central Arkansas
-95.9960
0.00%
348
348
San Jose St.
-96.4882
0.00%
337
349
Liberty
-96.8816
0.00%
345
350
Florida A&M
-97.3341
0.00%
350
351
Grambling St.
-100.0694
0.00%
351
   

This page last updated on Monday, March 3, 2015 at 9:17 a.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

Disclaimer