NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Friday, February 5, 2016, according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula has correctly predicted 141 of 146 at-large bids over the last four years combined (97%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Kansas
27.7017
100.00%
5
2
Oklahoma
27.5534
100.00%
2
3
Oregon
24.7365
100.00%
3
4
Villanova
24.0024
100.00%
1
5
Iowa
22.9758
100.00%
6
6
Xavier
22.2195
100.00%
4
7
Virginia
21.0173
100.00%
11
8
Iowa St.
20.2717
100.00%
9
9
North Carolina
19.2409
100.00%
10
10
West Virginia
19.1879
100.00%
13
11
Miami FL
18.7011
100.00%
14
12
Utah
18.3329
100.00%
18
13
Texas
16.9185
100.00%
16
14
Texas A&M
16.3327
100.00%
15
15
Maryland
16.1900
100.00%
7
16
Michigan St.
14.7318
100.00%
19
17
Dayton
14.6770
100.00%
8
18
SMU
13.4470
---
12
19
Purdue
12.1073
100.00%
24
20
Baylor
11.9394
100.00%
22
21
Colorado
10.7953
100.00%
23
22
USC
8.9496
100.00%
17
23
Louisville
8.5837
---
21
24
Providence
8.5567
100.00%
26
25
Washington
7.0436
100.00%
34
26
Duke
6.4024
100.00%
20
27
Pittsburgh
5.6071
100.00%
27
28
Kentucky
4.8423
100.00%
29
29
Syracuse
4.1990
100.00%
35
30
Florida
4.0061
100.00%
25
31
Wisconsin
3.9294
100.00%
39
32
Arizona
3.6767
99.99%
37
33
Seton Hall
3.3849
99.96%
41
34
Notre Dame
3.1315
99.91%
32
35
Monmouth
3.0610
99.89%
53
36
Saint Joseph's
2.3642
99.10%
28
37
VCU
2.2734
98.85%
30
38
Connecticut
1.9736
97.58%
36
39
Oregon St.
1.9243
97.28%
40
40
Indiana
1.8092
96.48%
49
41
Michigan
1.5967
94.48%
38
42
Wichita St.
1.3269
90.77%
33
43
Florida St.
1.3191
90.64%
44
44
California
1.0622
85.59%
43
45
George Washington
0.0762
53.04%
52
46
Vanderbilt
-0.9723
16.55%
46
47
San Diego St.
-1.2669
10.26%
42
48
Stanford
-1.4138
7.87%
45
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
49
Clemson
-1.5823
5.68%
70
50
Texas Tech
-2.3657
0.90%
31
51
Valparaiso
-2.5837
0.49%
59
52
South Carolina
-3.5331
0.02%
48
53
Chattanooga
-3.9757
0.00%
66
54
Cincinnati
-4.1904
0.00%
61
55
LSU
-4.2702
0.00%
65
56
Gonzaga
-4.5262
0.00%
57
57
Georgetown
-4.9359
0.00%
62
58
William & Mary
-5.1230
0.00%
54
59
St. Bonaventure
-5.4507
0.00%
51
60
Georgia
-5.4727
0.00%
47
61
UCLA
-6.7047
0.00%
56
62
Alabama
-6.9616
0.00%
55
63
Saint Mary's
-7.4391
0.00%
60
64
Butler
-7.7663
0.00%
58
65
Arkansas Little Rock
-8.2913
0.00%
76
66
Kansas St.
-8.3840
0.00%
50
67
Temple
-8.7511
0.00%
72
68
Georgia Tech
-8.8506
0.00%
64
69
Tulsa
-9.2216
0.00%
68
70
South Dakota St.
-9.3037
0.00%
73
71
Boise St.
-10.4509
0.00%
77
72
Stony Brook
-10.9264
0.00%
82
73
Akron
-10.9875
0.00%
71
74
Arkansas
-11.1263
0.00%
75
75
BYU
-11.3233
0.00%
67
76
Hofstra
-11.6778
0.00%
78
77
UC Irvine
-12.5113
0.00%
79
78
Davidson
-12.6425
0.00%
63
79
Ohio St.
-13.3726
0.00%
74
80
Tennessee
-14.1959
0.00%
87
81
Princeton
-14.2140
0.00%
83
82
Marquette
-14.2299
0.00%
85
83
Arizona St.
-14.3017
0.00%
69
84
James Madison
-14.3898
0.00%
89
85
IPFW
-14.9893
0.00%
94
86
Grand Canyon
-15.3469
0.00%
95
87
Yale
-15.5040
0.00%
86
88
UNC Wilmington
-15.5418
0.00%
98
89
Hawaii
-16.5083
0.00%
84
90
Evansville
-16.6841
0.00%
90
91
North Carolina St.
-16.6918
0.00%
81
92
Middle Tennessee
-16.8520
0.00%
88
93
Creighton
-17.0417
0.00%
91
94
Houston
-17.0828
0.00%
97
95
College of Charleston
-17.1957
0.00%
92
96
Wake Forest
-18.3307
0.00%
80
97
Northwestern
-19.3533
0.00%
93
98
Mississippi
-19.6777
0.00%
104
99
UAB
-19.7726
0.00%
108
100
Virginia Tech
-19.7889
0.00%
105
101
Southern Illinois
-20.0174
0.00%
111
102
Duquesne
-20.2574
0.00%
96
103
Kent St.
-20.3532
0.00%
107
104
New Mexico
-20.4332
0.00%
102
105
Belmont
-21.2085
0.00%
113
106
Buffalo
-21.4564
0.00%
106
107
Northern Iowa
-21.5534
0.00%
122
108
Memphis
-21.6944
0.00%
99
109
Siena
-21.8001
0.00%
110
110
Long Beach St.
-22.2456
0.00%
114
111
Ohio
-22.3629
0.00%
101
112
Rhode Island
-22.7866
0.00%
100
113
UNLV
-23.2741
0.00%
117
114
Auburn
-23.9498
0.00%
103
115
UC Santa Barbara
-24.0744
0.00%
120
116
Elon
-24.2493
0.00%
119
117
Richmond
-24.8930
0.00%
112
118
Oakland
-25.1552
0.00%
136
119
Illinois
-25.6727
0.00%
115
120
New Mexico St.
-25.8050
0.00%
123
121
Central Michigan
-25.8850
0.00%
118
122
Albany
-26.1566
0.00%
135
123
Nevada
-26.5724
0.00%
126
124
Indiana St.
-26.6524
0.00%
121
125
Nebraska
-26.6656
0.00%
128
126
Georgia St.
-26.7403
0.00%
124
127
Pepperdine
-27.3398
0.00%
129
128
Oklahoma St.
-27.4345
0.00%
116
129
Illinois St.
-27.8514
0.00%
131
130
Penn St.
-27.8623
0.00%
109
131
Columbia
-27.9393
0.00%
134
132
Tennessee Tech
-28.1072
0.00%
132
133
Fresno St.
-28.2751
0.00%
130
134
Northern Illinois
-29.0425
0.00%
133
135
Louisiana Tech
-29.2183
0.00%
139
136
Northeastern
-29.4585
0.00%
141
137
UT Arlington
-29.4930
0.00%
146
138
Old Dominion
-31.3447
0.00%
142
139
TCU
-31.3897
0.00%
125
140
Marshall
-31.6005
0.00%
143
141
East Tennessee St.
-31.7763
0.00%
149
142
Nebraska Omaha
-31.9521
0.00%
155
143
Milwaukee
-32.3976
0.00%
159
144
Mercer
-32.6237
0.00%
147
145
Utah St.
-32.6922
0.00%
137
146
Louisiana Lafayette
-32.8795
0.00%
148
147
North Dakota St.
-33.2232
0.00%
152
148
Oral Roberts
-33.4596
0.00%
140
149
North Florida
-33.5669
0.00%
156
150
DePaul
-34.0233
0.00%
138
151
Weber St.
-34.1585
0.00%
153
152
Navy
-34.9417
0.00%
172
153
Ball St.
-35.1817
0.00%
157
154
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-35.4454
0.00%
166
155
Fordham
-35.9506
0.00%
145
156
Murray St.
-36.1170
0.00%
158
157
Washington St.
-36.1582
0.00%
127
158
Stephen F. Austin
-36.4607
0.00%
162
159
Wright St.
-36.5596
0.00%
163
160
Vermont
-36.7244
0.00%
171
161
Eastern Michigan
-36.8938
0.00%
154
162
UNC Asheville
-37.3160
0.00%
168
163
East Carolina
-37.3478
0.00%
144
164
Fairfield
-37.3751
0.00%
165
165
Iona
-37.5718
0.00%
169
166
George Mason
-38.2031
0.00%
150
167
Green Bay
-38.6029
0.00%
181
168
Toledo
-38.6541
0.00%
170
169
Cal St. Bakersfield
-38.7708
0.00%
179
170
Saint Louis
-39.1081
0.00%
160
171
Mississippi St.
-39.1384
0.00%
151
172
Montana
-39.1945
0.00%
178
173
Radford
-39.6182
0.00%
177
174
Towson
-39.7940
0.00%
183
175
UCF
-40.3856
0.00%
180
176
Massachusetts
-41.0169
0.00%
161
177
Winthrop
-41.2409
0.00%
186
178
Furman
-41.2519
0.00%
184
179
Bucknell
-41.3288
0.00%
189
180
Tennessee St.
-41.5846
0.00%
190
181
Morehead St.
-41.6646
0.00%
185
182
IUPUI
-42.1762
0.00%
187
183
Wyoming
-42.2656
0.00%
175
184
Western Kentucky
-42.3744
0.00%
176
185
Colorado St.
-42.4032
0.00%
182
186
Coastal Carolina
-42.7757
0.00%
192
187
NJIT
-42.9515
0.00%
198
188
Western Michigan
-44.0483
0.00%
174
189
Denver
-44.0850
0.00%
188
190
Cornell
-44.3696
0.00%
195
191
Missouri
-44.7963
---
164
192
High Point
-45.2458
0.00%
199
193
Hampton
-45.4216
0.00%
205
194
Idaho
-45.5095
0.00%
208
195
Bowling Green
-45.9923
0.00%
204
196
Charlotte
-46.3281
0.00%
200
197
Louisiana Monroe
-46.5169
0.00%
196
198
St. John's
-46.7860
0.00%
167
199
Detroit
-46.8318
0.00%
194
200
Fairleigh Dickinson
-47.1243
0.00%
209
201
New Hampshire
-47.2122
0.00%
212
202
Boston University
-47.5559
0.00%
216
203
Manhattan
-47.6280
0.00%
203
204
Southern
-48.6591
0.00%
215
205
Wagner
-48.7470
0.00%
218
206
Boston College
-48.7515
0.00%
173
207
San Francisco
-49.1419
0.00%
211
208
South Dakota
-49.6932
0.00%
197
209
Missouri St.
-49.8502
0.00%
217
210
Florida Gulf Coast
-50.4418
0.00%
214
211
Gardner Webb
-50.4497
0.00%
222
212
Harvard
-50.8749
0.00%
206
213
La Salle
-51.5100
0.00%
201
214
Wofford
-51.5529
0.00%
221
215
Arkansas St.
-51.9076
0.00%
223
216
Incarnate Word
-52.4082
0.00%
227
217
Army
-52.4255
0.00%
228
218
Loyola Marymount
-53.0186
0.00%
210
219
Cal Poly
-53.4920
0.00%
213
220
Air Force
-53.6102
0.00%
207
221
Sam Houston St.
-53.9430
0.00%
233
222
Canisius
-54.1203
0.00%
224
223
Eastern Kentucky
-54.2291
0.00%
225
224
St. Francis PA
-54.4546
0.00%
235
225
Miami OH
-54.5167
0.00%
202
226
Rutgers
-54.6940
0.00%
193
227
FIU
-54.9662
0.00%
237
228
UTEP
-54.9886
0.00%
220
229
Minnesota
-55.0089
0.00%
191
230
Texas Southern
-55.2220
0.00%
238
231
Houston Baptist
-55.4778
0.00%
239
232
Lehigh
-56.0694
0.00%
236
233
Saint Peter's
-56.2452
0.00%
242
234
Eastern Illinois
-56.4131
0.00%
240
235
Jackson St.
-56.5010
0.00%
243
236
Youngstown St.
-56.6783
0.00%
234
237
South Carolina St.
-56.7568
0.00%
244
238
South Florida
-57.5063
0.00%
219
239
Santa Clara
-57.5257
0.00%
232
240
Portland
-57.8406
0.00%
230
241
UC Davis
-58.0279
0.00%
241
242
Rider
-58.0949
0.00%
246
243
Norfolk St.
-58.3795
0.00%
253
244
Colgate
-58.5474
0.00%
251
245
North Dakota
-59.5706
0.00%
255
246
Loyola Chicago
-59.6024
0.00%
231
247
Georgia Southern
-59.7976
0.00%
250
248
Sacramento St.
-60.1026
0.00%
248
249
Tennessee Martin
-60.1602
0.00%
260
250
Loyola MD
-60.7617
0.00%
257
251
UC Riverside
-60.8287
0.00%
262
252
Mount St. Mary's
-61.0175
0.00%
258
253
South Alabama
-61.1948
0.00%
249
254
Appalachian St.
-61.3627
0.00%
247
255
Tulane
-61.6294
0.00%
226
256
Drexel
-62.3968
0.00%
229
257
Austin Peay
-62.6208
0.00%
254
258
UNC Greensboro
-62.6323
0.00%
259
259
Northern Kentucky
-62.6417
---
252
260
Western Carolina
-63.0366
0.00%
245
261
Utah Valley
-63.2397
0.00%
272
262
American
-63.2988
0.00%
269
263
Eastern Washington
-63.5755
0.00%
268
264
Seattle
-64.0181
0.00%
273
265
Jacksonville
-64.0871
0.00%
270
266
Pacific
-64.3444
---
256
267
Quinnipiac
-64.4611
0.00%
265
268
Charleston Southern
-65.0909
0.00%
261
269
Kennesaw St.
-66.3317
0.00%
267
270
Brown
-67.2958
0.00%
274
271
LIU Brooklyn
-67.3916
0.00%
285
272
Samford
-67.4025
0.00%
263
273
Holy Cross
-67.5019
0.00%
271
274
UMKC
-67.7289
0.00%
266
275
Southern Miss
-68.1511
---
280
276
Liberty
-68.1799
0.00%
286
277
Lipscomb
-68.4660
0.00%
278
278
UMass Lowell
-68.5827
0.00%
287
279
Montana St.
-69.0655
0.00%
283
280
Maine
-69.5180
0.00%
288
281
Cal St. Fullerton
-69.7832
0.00%
282
282
San Diego
-69.9331
0.00%
281
283
Western Illinois
-70.4541
0.00%
276
284
Portland St.
-70.5412
0.00%
292
285
Penn
-70.6803
0.00%
284
286
Cal St. Northridge
-70.8561
0.00%
290
287
Idaho St.
-71.1616
0.00%
295
288
Florida Atlantic
-71.2798
0.00%
289
289
Rice
-71.3692
0.00%
277
290
Cleveland St.
-71.8311
0.00%
275
291
Stetson
-71.8793
---
294
292
Northern Colorado
-71.9290
0.00%
298
293
Maryland Eastern Shore
-72.1848
0.00%
299
294
Delaware
-72.3233
0.00%
264
295
San Jose St.
-72.5603
0.00%
279
296
The Citadel
-73.2765
0.00%
293
297
Sacred Heart
-73.2959
0.00%
306
298
Texas St.
-74.2997
0.00%
297
299
Alcorn St.
-74.3191
0.00%
310
300
Howard
-74.4870
0.00%
308
301
St. Francis NY
-74.7219
0.00%
311
302
New Orleans
-75.5693
0.00%
309
303
Bethune Cookman
-76.0218
0.00%
314
304
North Texas
-76.8786
0.00%
305
305
Niagara
-77.2526
0.00%
300
306
McNeese St.
-77.3023
0.00%
304
307
Binghamton
-77.3405
0.00%
303
308
Dartmouth
-77.3902
0.00%
307
309
Jacksonville St.
-77.4190
0.00%
313
310
SIU Edwardsville
-77.4299
0.00%
291
311
Bryant
-78.0776
0.00%
315
312
Coppin St.
-78.4422
0.00%
317
313
USC Upstate
-79.1599
0.00%
316
314
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-79.3566
0.00%
320
315
Hartford
-80.0743
0.00%
319
316
Drake
-80.2149
0.00%
296
317
Troy
-80.3907
0.00%
302
318
Lafayette
-80.4692
0.00%
312
319
Abilene Christian
-80.5383
0.00%
329
320
Bradley
-80.8144
0.00%
301
321
Robert Morris
-80.8914
0.00%
326
322
North Carolina Central
-81.0002
0.00%
327
323
Mississippi Valley St.
-81.7085
0.00%
333
324
Central Arkansas
-81.7979
---
321
325
Alabama St.
-82.4565
0.00%
323
326
Presbyterian
-82.8802
0.00%
322
327
Savannah St.
-83.4415
0.00%
328
328
Morgan St.
-83.6670
0.00%
338
329
Southeast Missouri St.
-83.7946
0.00%
325
330
Nicholls St.
-84.1895
0.00%
318
331
Alabama A&M
-84.2168
0.00%
339
332
Longwood
-85.2703
0.00%
334
333
North Carolina A&T
-85.7437
0.00%
337
334
UMBC
-86.1559
0.00%
331
335
Southern Utah
-86.3526
0.00%
335
336
Marist
-86.8448
0.00%
324
337
Northwestern St.
-87.1697
0.00%
342
338
Southeastern Louisiana
-87.3376
0.00%
340
339
VMI
-87.4061
0.00%
330
340
Grambling St.
-87.5343
0.00%
344
341
Campbell
-87.5819
0.00%
336
342
UT Rio Grande Valley
-87.5934
0.00%
341
343
Northern Arizona
-87.9177
0.00%
332
344
Delaware St.
-88.3017
0.00%
347
345
Lamar
-88.4869
0.00%
346
346
UTSA
-89.0785
0.00%
343
347
Florida A&M
-89.3840
0.00%
348
348
Chicago St.
-91.9226
0.00%
345
349
Central Connecticut
-91.9514
0.00%
351
350
Prairie View A&M
-92.3751
0.00%
350
351
Illinois Chicago
-92.9458
0.00%
349
   

This page last updated on Saturday, February 6, 2016 at 10:30 a.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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