NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"
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Authors
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Past Rankings
Acknowledgements

NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 16, 2014 (i.e., all regular season and conference tournament games), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula correctly predicted 35 of the 36 at-large bids (97%) this season (missing on N.C. State). Last season, the Dance Card correctly predicted 37 of 37 at-large bids (100%); it predicted 36 of 37 bids in 2012 (97%). Thus, the model is now 108 out of 110 in the last three years combined (98%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
Arizona
43.1464
100.00%
2
2
@Florida
42.7666
100.00%
1
3
Kansas
37.8282
100.00%
3
4
Michigan
33.6991
100.00%
10
5
Villanova
30.7756
100.00%
6
6
@Iowa St.
30.1862
100.00%
9
7
Wisconsin
30.0575
100.00%
5
8
Syracuse
29.5405
100.00%
13
9
@UCLA
24.9821
100.00%
15
10
@Wichita St.
24.4319
100.00%
4
11
Creighton
23.6779
100.00%
11
12
@Virginia
23.4387
100.00%
7
13
Duke
23.3505
100.00%
8
14
@Michigan St.
22.8938
100.00%
14
15
Baylor
21.3038
100.00%
29
16
Oklahoma
19.6891
100.00%
23
17
San Diego St.
19.4943
100.00%
17
18
Connecticut
19.2628
100.00%
21
19
@Louisville
19.2215
100.00%
18
20
Saint Louis
18.4625
100.00%
24
21
Cincinnati
18.3906
100.00%
20
22
Massachusetts
18.0031
100.00%
25
23
Ohio St.
17.8271
100.00%
22
24
North Carolina
16.5536
100.00%
27
25
Kentucky
15.8245
100.00%
16
26
@Saint Joseph's
15.2878
100.00%
30
27
@New Mexico
15.2323
100.00%
12
28
VCU
14.7762
100.00%
19
29
Oregon
14.6612
100.00%
26
30
Texas
14.5568
100.00%
35
31
George Washington
12.0121
100.00%
34
32
Dayton
10.1747
100.00%
38
33
@Gonzaga
9.7401
100.00%
28
34
Stanford
9.6021
100.00%
37
35
Colorado
9.5362
100.00%
31
36
Memphis
7.9512
100.00%
33
37
Pittsburgh
7.4098
100.00%
32
38
Kansas St.
5.8141
100.00%
46
39
Xavier
5.7650
100.00%
44
40
Arizona St.
5.4434
100.00%
47
41
@Providence
4.6366
100.00%
39
42
Nebraska
4.5737
100.00%
50
43
BYU
4.2463
100.00%
36
44
Tennessee
4.0373
100.00%
40
45
California (miss)
3.8207
99.99%
56
46
Iowa
3.2079
99.93%
52
47
Oklahoma St.
2.8712
99.80%
42
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
48
Southern Miss
2.0317
97.89%
43
49
SMU
0.9235
82.21%
61
50
Florida St.
0.5438
70.67%
55
51
North Carolina St. (miss)
0.0733
52.92%
51
52
Minnesota
-0.8237
20.51%
41
53
@North Dakota St.
-0.9392
17.38%
45
54
St. John's
-1.3817
8.35%
53
55
Georgetown
-1.5038
6.63%
60
56
@Harvard
-1.7255
4.22%
54
57
Utah
-2.6354
0.42%
70
58
@Stephen F. Austin
-2.6388
0.42%
59
59
Toledo
-2.6419
0.41%
49
60
Arkansas
-2.7047
0.34%
63
61
Green Bay
-2.7738
0.28%
57
62
Missouri
-3.2914
0.05%
48
63
Illinois
-3.4303
0.03%
62
64
Saint Mary's
-4.0526
0.00%
58
65
Louisiana Tech
-4.0746
0.00%
67
66
@Manhattan
-4.1156
0.00%
66
67
Georgia
-5.0396
0.00%
68
68
West Virginia
-5.2887
0.00%
79
69
Richmond
-5.7222
0.00%
71
70
@Western Michigan
-5.9828
0.00%
77
71
Middle Tennessee
-6.8145
0.00%
69
72
Belmont
-7.9256
0.00%
76
73
LSU
-8.4292
0.00%
73
74
San Francisco
-8.6743
0.00%
64
75
@Tulsa
-8.8719
0.00%
75
76
Maryland
-9.1460
0.00%
65
77
Clemson
-9.1719
0.00%
72
78
Ohio
-9.7272
0.00%
81
79
@New Mexico St.
-9.7793
0.00%
85
80
Washington
-9.8628
0.00%
90
81
Iona
-9.8733
0.00%
74
82
@Delaware
-10.5607
0.00%
82
83
Boston University
-10.8165
0.00%
83
84
Boise St.
-10.8636
0.00%
78
85
Indiana St.
-12.0876
0.00%
80
86
Oregon St.
-12.5032
0.00%
95
87
UTEP
-12.6210
0.00%
87
88
Indiana
-12.7428
0.00%
86
89
Marquette
-12.8837
0.00%
84
90
St. Bonaventure
-14.0165
0.00%
92
91
UNLV
-14.0211
0.00%
93
92
Georgia St.
-14.3098
0.00%
94
93
@Mercer
-15.5009
0.00%
96
94
Mississippi
-15.5948
0.00%
88
95
Missouri St.
-16.2714
0.00%
89
96
Eastern Michigan
-16.3622
0.00%
91
97
Cleveland St.
-16.7799
0.00%
101
98
Akron
-18.0510
0.00%
98
99
@Louisiana Lafayette
-19.0742
0.00%
102
100
La Salle
-19.1193
0.00%
97
101
Towson
-19.1621
0.00%
105
102
Penn St.
-19.2918
0.00%
104
103
UC Santa Barbara
-19.4557
0.00%
118
104
Seton Hall
-19.9107
0.00%
114
105
Northern Iowa
-20.0144
0.00%
115
106
Canisius
-20.0174
0.00%
111
107
Buffalo
-20.0284
0.00%
109
108
@Eastern Kentucky
-20.2732
0.00%
112
109
@North Carolina Central
-20.2811
0.00%
120
110
Quinnipiac
-20.5290
0.00%
113
111
Miami FL
-20.7211
0.00%
108
112
Texas Tech
-21.3110
0.00%
103
113
UC Irvine
-21.4722
0.00%
122
114
Western Kentucky
-22.0746
0.00%
126
115
Vermont
-22.4075
0.00%
123
116
Wake Forest
-22.6552
0.00%
99
117
UAB
-23.0409
0.00%
134
118
William & Mary
-23.5986
0.00%
125
119
Davidson
-23.7744
0.00%
131
120
Vanderbilt
-24.0098
0.00%
107
121
Fresno St.
-24.1023
0.00%
119
122
Northwestern
-24.2858
0.00%
116
123
Nevada
-24.7396
0.00%
136
124
Utah St.
-24.7624
0.00%
106
125
Alabama
-25.5149
0.00%
100
126
Wyoming
-25.8391
0.00%
128
127
Illinois St.
-25.8749
0.00%
127
128
Houston
-25.9200
0.00%
130
129
IPFW
-25.9226
0.00%
139
130
@American
-25.9887
0.00%
137
131
Princeton
-26.1566
0.00%
135
132
Texas A&M
-26.2738
0.00%
117
133
@Milwaukee
-26.7750
0.00%
146
134
Columbia
-27.3398
0.00%
129
135
Notre Dame
-27.5527
0.00%
110
136
Holy Cross
-28.0351
0.00%
145
137
Hawaii
-28.8935
0.00%
141
138
Denver
-28.8964
0.00%
140
139
Purdue
-29.0673
0.00%
121
140
Charlotte
-29.2454
0.00%
143
141
Robert Morris
-29.5699
0.00%
151
142
Sam Houston St.
-29.8178
0.00%
144
143
Morehead St.
-29.8257
0.00%
152
144
Drexel
-30.8311
0.00%
148
145
South Dakota St.
-30.8599
0.00%
154
146
South Carolina
-31.1339
0.00%
124
147
Pacific
-32.8913
0.00%
133
148
Utah Valley
-33.3990
0.00%
158
149
Florida Gulf Coast
-33.6548
0.00%
159
150
Georgia Tech
-33.9844
0.00%
149
151
Stony Brook
-34.0864
0.00%
166
152
Old Dominion
-34.8459
0.00%
161
153
San Diego
-34.9074
0.00%
150
154
Yale
-34.9338
0.00%
164
155
Elon
-35.0217
0.00%
167
156
@Weber St.
-35.1017
0.00%
162
157
Pepperdine
-35.1329
0.00%
160
158
@Wofford
-35.3654
0.00%
171
159
Murray St.
-35.8691
0.00%
165
160
Rhode Island
-36.3156
0.00%
147
161
Bucknell
-36.3886
0.00%
175
162
Auburn
-36.7865
0.00%
138
163
Northwestern St.
-37.4918
0.00%
174
164
Long Beach St.
-37.9155
0.00%
173
165
Miami OH
-38.2895
0.00%
168
166
Portland
-38.3346
0.00%
163
167
Valparaiso
-38.6829
0.00%
176
168
DePaul
-38.7047
0.00%
132
169
George Mason
-38.9340
0.00%
156
170
Colorado St.
-38.9705
0.00%
153
171
Bryant
-39.6261
0.00%
185
172
Butler
-39.7567
0.00%
142
173
Wright St.
-40.1298
0.00%
179
174
Winthrop
-40.2177
0.00%
182
175
Tulane
-40.6414
0.00%
181
176
Oakland
-40.6717
0.00%
172
177
@Coastal Carolina
-40.8172
0.00%
187
178
Southern
-41.0809
0.00%
196
179
Arkansas St.
-41.1609
0.00%
191
180
Oral Roberts
-41.4088
0.00%
184
181
North Texas
-41.5652
0.00%
177
182
USC Upstate
-41.7525
0.00%
188
183
Siena
-42.0083
0.00%
189
184
Duquesne
-42.1491
0.00%
183
185
Rutgers
-42.6411
0.00%
155
186
High Point
-42.8636
0.00%
195
187
USC
-42.9684
0.00%
157
188
Drake
-43.6131
0.00%
170
189
Montana
-44.1426
0.00%
200
190
East Tennessee St.
-44.3105
0.00%
198
191
Arkansas Little Rock
-44.6542
0.00%
202
192
Southern Illinois
-45.4137
0.00%
197
193
Northern Illinois
-45.4737
0.00%
201
194
@Albany
-45.5095
0.00%
208
195
FIU
-46.2193
0.00%
199
196
North Florida
-46.5327
0.00%
212
197
Hampton
-46.6206
0.00%
215
198
Temple
-46.7651
0.00%
169
199
North Dakota
-47.0582
0.00%
211
200
Rider
-47.0746
0.00%
205
201
Kent St.
-47.1640
0.00%
193
202
St. Francis NY
-47.5559
0.00%
216
203
Loyola Marymount
-47.5613
0.00%
178
204
Washington St.
-47.6418
0.00%
180
205
UT Arlington
-48.4033
0.00%
214
206
Northern Colorado
-48.4141
0.00%
221
207
@Mount St. Mary's
-48.4912
0.00%
217
208
Wagner
-49.1786
0.00%
225
209
Bowling Green
-49.2407
0.00%
192
210
Tennessee Tech
-49.2586
0.00%
220
211
Evansville
-49.6053
0.00%
194
212
Lipscomb
-49.9460
0.00%
228
213
UNC Asheville
-50.4497
0.00%
222
214
Santa Clara
-50.5485
0.00%
203
215
Morgan St.
-50.7055
0.00%
223
216
Grand Canyon
-50.9613
0.00%
224
217
UCF
-51.5444
0.00%
186
218
VMI
-51.7287
0.00%
227
219
Northeastern
-51.7590
0.00%
218
220
@Cal Poly
-51.8678
0.00%
219
221
Brown
-52.1603
0.00%
234
222
Norfolk St.
-52.3471
0.00%
238
223
Eastern Washington
-53.5993
0.00%
229
224
East Carolina
-53.6981
0.00%
210
225
Army
-53.9509
0.00%
241
226
Western Carolina
-54.2867
0.00%
237
227
Saint Peter's
-54.6607
0.00%
232
228
Boston College
-54.8239
0.00%
209
229
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-54.8862
0.00%
242
230
Nebraska Omaha
-55.1226
0.00%
230
231
Hartford
-55.2299
0.00%
246
232
Radford
-55.5736
0.00%
250
233
College of Charleston
-56.2849
0.00%
226
234
Idaho
-56.3043
0.00%
239
235
Northern Arizona
-56.6768
0.00%
249
236
Portland St.
-56.7568
0.00%
244
237
Gardner Webb
-57.2763
0.00%
254
238
Detroit
-57.3960
0.00%
233
239
Marist
-57.6136
0.00%
235
240
Fordham
-57.8018
0.00%
204
241
South Florida
-58.0556
0.00%
213
242
Chattanooga
-58.3795
0.00%
253
243
@Texas Southern
-58.7232
0.00%
257
244
Incarnate Word
-59.1390
0.00%
248
245
Mississippi St.
-59.6724
0.00%
206
246
Lehigh
-59.8661
0.00%
240
247
Air Force
-59.8964
0.00%
231
248
Southeast Missouri St.
-59.9143
0.00%
259
249
TCU
-60.0061
0.00%
190
250
Youngstown St.
-60.2019
0.00%
236
251
UMKC
-60.3474
0.00%
251
252
Alabama St.
-60.9375
0.00%
263
253
James Madison
-61.1451
0.00%
245
254
Chicago St.
-61.1645
0.00%
258
255
Louisiana Monroe
-61.6567
0.00%
247
256
Virginia Tech
-61.7282
0.00%
207
257
Cal St. Northridge
-62.0119
0.00%
256
258
South Dakota
-62.6417
0.00%
252
259
Bradley
-62.6720
0.00%
243
260
Coppin St.
-62.7872
0.00%
267
261
Sacramento St.
-62.8672
0.00%
262
262
Colgate
-63.1706
0.00%
255
263
Dartmouth
-64.1556
0.00%
260
264
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-64.5187
0.00%
277
265
Lafayette
-65.3849
0.00%
261
266
New Orleans
-65.9750
0.00%
273
267
Montana St.
-66.4275
0.00%
278
268
Savannah St.
-66.5651
0.00%
285
269
McNeese St.
-66.7633
0.00%
274
270
Alabama A&M
-67.5883
0.00%
289
271
Jacksonville
-67.7577
0.00%
272
272
Nicholls St.
-68.0120
0.00%
288
273
Charleston Southern
-68.2484
0.00%
276
274
Seattle
-68.2578
0.00%
269
275
Penn
-68.3284
0.00%
271
276
Hofstra
-68.8703
0.00%
264
277
UMass Lowell
-69.2910
0.00%
293
278
Florida Atlantic
-69.3610
0.00%
268
279
Fairleigh Dickinson
-70.3539
0.00%
281
280
Marshall
-70.3554
0.00%
266
281
Loyola MD
-70.4721
0.00%
275
282
Cal St. Fullerton
-70.5218
0.00%
279
283
South Alabama
-70.7791
0.00%
265
284
Cal St. Bakersfield
-71.7799
0.00%
286
285
Eastern Illinois
-72.7937
0.00%
297
286
UNC Greensboro
-73.0495
0.00%
298
287
Central Connecticut
-73.2253
0.00%
304
288
Florida A&M
-73.2959
0.00%
306
289
Idaho St.
-73.4444
0.00%
291
290
Troy
-73.4538
0.00%
284
291
St. Francis PA
-73.8457
0.00%
307
292
Loyola Chicago
-74.3906
0.00%
270
293
NJIT
-75.3502
0.00%
322
294
Monmouth
-75.7366
0.00%
280
295
Georgia Southern
-75.9512
0.00%
312
296
Austin Peay
-76.3461
0.00%
305
297
UNC Wilmington
-76.5040
0.00%
283
298
Jackson St.
-76.5810
0.00%
308
299
Western Illinois
-76.8592
0.00%
292
300
Alcorn St.
-77.4478
0.00%
319
301
Prairie View A&M
-78.3046
0.00%
310
302
LIU Brooklyn
-78.4610
0.00%
303
303
SIU Edwardsville
-78.5013
0.00%
314
304
Samford
-78.5604
0.00%
311
305
Fairfield
-78.5807
0.00%
282
306
UTSA
-79.0238
0.00%
294
307
Northern Kentucky
-79.0526
0.00%
300
308
Tennessee St.
-79.5642
0.00%
302
309
Campbell
-79.7306
0.00%
315
310
Central Michigan
-79.8597
0.00%
287
311
Southeastern Louisiana
-80.1334
0.00%
316
312
Liberty
-80.5283
0.00%
309
313
Texas Pan American
-80.7920
0.00%
318
314
UC Riverside
-81.5515
0.00%
313
315
Texas St.
-81.6409
0.00%
301
316
Rice
-82.1619
0.00%
296
317
San Jose St.
-83.2536
0.00%
290
318
Jacksonville St.
-83.4012
0.00%
317
319
Niagara
-83.4121
0.00%
295
320
Central Arkansas
-84.7890
0.00%
323
321
Delaware St.
-85.3885
0.00%
328
322
UMBC
-85.5564
0.00%
326
323
Ball St.
-85.9413
0.00%
299
324
Howard
-86.0968
0.00%
334
325
UC Davis
-86.1271
0.00%
325
326
South Carolina St.
-86.1559
0.00%
331
327
Navy
-86.6481
0.00%
320
328
Binghamton
-86.9615
0.00%
333
329
Maine
-87.1404
0.00%
329
330
Stetson
-87.4652
0.00%
327
331
Appalachian St.
-87.6907
0.00%
337
332
North Carolina A&T
-88.1144
0.00%
336
333
Tennessee Martin
-88.9791
0.00%
335
334
New Hampshire
-89.4316
0.00%
340
335
IUPUI
-90.0038
0.00%
324
336
Kennesaw St.
-90.0326
0.00%
330
337
Illinois Chicago
-90.2099
0.00%
321
338
Bethune Cookman
-90.5045
0.00%
348
339
Furman
-90.5730
0.00%
338
340
Longwood
-91.3404
0.00%
341
341
Sacred Heart
-91.7432
0.00%
342
342
Cornell
-91.9032
0.00%
332
343
Mississippi Valley St.
-92.0696
0.00%
345
344
Maryland Eastern Shore
-92.5812
0.00%
347
345
Houston Baptist
-93.8408
0.00%
339
346
The Citadel
-94.9728
0.00%
344
347
Lamar
-95.5435
0.00%
343
348
Grambling St.
-95.5723
0.00%
349
349
Presbyterian
-96.6546
0.00%
350
350
Southern Utah
-100.4434
0.00%
346
   

This page last updated on Sunday, March 16, 2014 at 7:20 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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