DanceCard.unf.edu
NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament
Dance Card

 

 

Dance Card Rankings for 2010


At right are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, February 7, 2010, according to the newly updated "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Charles River Associates, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University. The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

 

The original version of the Dance Card (based on 1994 through 1999 data and developed by Coleman and Lynch) was published in Interfaces (a journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences) in 2001, and was the version used to make at-large predictions through the 2008 Tournament. An article discussing research associated with a newly updated and modified version of the Dance Card (based on 1999 through 2008 data) is forthcoming in Managerial and Decision Economics. The predictions for last year's (2009) Tournament, as well as the rankings shown at right, are based on the updated Dance Card.

 

Also shown at right is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday and all regular season and conference tournament games had been completed. Because the quality of teams near the bubble line vary from year to year, a team with a relatively low chance of getting a bid in past years may actually be ranked above the current bubble line. When there are teams with less than a 50% historical chance of getting a bid actually ranked above the bubble line, it's an indication of a relatively weak field of at-large candidates for the final slots.A Method to the Madness?

(The RPI figures at right reflect the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally.  This is the version of the RPI on which both versions of the Dance Card were developed, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years.)

Dance Card rankings for other seasons can be found by clicking on the appropriate link below:

2009        2008        2007        2006        2005        2004        2003        2002        2001

Accuracy and Performance of the Dance Card


The original Dance Card has missed on more than three spots in only two seasons (2007 and 2008).  Over the 15 year period from 1994 through 2008, the original Dance Card correctly predicted 476 of the 512 available at-large Tournament slots (or 93%).  Over the 9-year period (2000 through 2008) for which the original Dance Card was used since its initial development in 1999, it correctly predicted 284 out of the 307 available at-large Tournament slots (92.5%). The formula's best years were in 2001 and in 2005, when it correctly predicted 33 of the 34 available at-large Tournament slots (or 97% accuracy). 

 

The newly updated and modified Dance Card correctly predicted 32 of the 34 available at-large slots in 2009, the first season in which it was used to make predictions. Over the 10 years of data (1999 through 2008) on which its development was based, it would have correctly predicted 331 of the 341 available at-large Tournament slots, or 97.1% accuracy (i.e., it would have averaged one at-large slot missed per year).

The Dance Card can only be as accurate as the Selection Committees are consistent; it is an estimate of the Selection Committees' (not the authors') decision criteria.  The high level of accuracy and consistency of the model is strong evidence that the Selection Committees (which differ in composition each year) are actually quite consistent from year to year.
 

 

General Description of the Dance Card


The Dance Card is a formula derived by Coleman and Lynch as an estimate of the decision rule that the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee uses when picking the teams that will get at-large bids to the NCAA men's basketball tournament.  Using past decisions of the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee and numerous pieces of information (e.g. RPI rankings, number of wins and losses, conference records, etc.) for all teams that were candidates for at-large selections in those years, Coleman and Lynch devised the Dance Card formula as an estimate of which pieces of information were most important to the Selection Committee, and the weights that the Committee placed on those pieces of information. 

Past Media Attention

The Dance Card has been featured in articles by the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, Investor's Business Daily, USA Today, the New York Times, CNN Headline News, UPI, and the Associated Press, two stories from which were picked up by a large number of newspapers and news Web sites, including the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, the Miami Herald, and the San Francisco Chronicle.  The research has also been widely featured in the business intelligence and customer relationship management media, including stories in CIO magazine, the Business Intelligence Journal, eWeek, Information Week, Database Trends & Applications, the Business Intelligence Network, SearchCRM.com, DestinationCRM.com, BI-BestPractices.com, KDnuggets.com, DSstar, and DM Review. It was also the subject of invited lectures at M2004 and M2005, the world's largest data mining conference, as well as numerous television and radio interviews.

Data Sources


In order to build the Dance Card formula, Coleman and Lynch used data, including estimates of the RPI for each team, from CollegeRPI.com, the web site of Jerry Palm of Palm Sports Resources, Inc.  The authors are extremely grateful to Mr. Palm for his work to provide this information.

In order to use the Dance Card to develop the rankings shown, the authors use game scores from Ken Pomeroy to determine values for all the Dance Card inputs listed above.  The authors are very thankful to Mr. Pomeroy for his generous and invaluable service.

Special thanks also go to Kenneth Massey for including the Dance Card rankings on his basketball ranking compilation page.

Dance Card Authors


Jay Coleman
is the Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods in the Coggin College of Business at the University of North Florida. Allen Lynch is Associate Professor of Economics & Quantitative Methods at the Stetson School of Business and Economics at Mercer University. Mike DuMond is a principal with Charles River Associates in Tallahassee, Florida.
 

Special Thanks to SAS!!


The authors would like to give a hearty and special thanks to all the good people at SAS Institute Inc., the maker of the software package used to develop the Dance Card.  In particular, we thank Mike Nemecek, Anne Milley, and Trent Smith, each of whom have been an absolute delight to work with.
 

Links of Interest

 

Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com)
CollegeRPI.com
Kenneth Massey (mratings.com)
Inst. for Opns. Research & the Mgt. Sciences (INFORMS)
Interfaces
National Collegiate Athletics Association

 

SAS Institute Inc.
NCAA Final Four Page
University of North Florida
Coggin College of Business at UNF
Mercer University
Stetson School of Business & Economics at Mercer

 

 

E-Mail Addresses


Jay Coleman
Allen Lynch
Mike DuMond
Sharon Ashton, Assistant VP of Public Relations, University of North Florida
Barry List, Director of Public Relations for INFORMS
 

Disclaimers


This web site and the research reported herein is not affiliated in any capacity with, or endorsed by, the National Collegiate Athletics Association (NCAA).  SAS and all other SAS Institute Inc. product or service names are registered trademarks or trademarks of SAS Institute Inc., in the USA and other countries. ® indicates USA registration.

 

 

 

Please forward all comments to jcoleman@unf.edu

Jay Coleman's Home Page

This page last updated on February 8, 2010 at 1:00 a.m.

Rank

Team (@=automatic bid)

Dance Card

Chance of Bid

RPI Rank

1

Kansas

10.7166

100.0%

2

2

Syracuse

9.8672

100.0%

1

3

Kansas St.

9.8282

100.0%

4

4

West Virginia

9.2566

100.0%

3

5

Villanova

8.8886

100.0%

8

6

Duke

8.1678

100.0%

5

7

Georgetown

8.0405

100.0%

6

8

Kentucky

7.4041

100.0%

7

9

Texas

7.2813

100.0%

20

10

Purdue

6.7200

100.0%

10

11

Wisconsin

5.7858

100.0%

11

12

Texas A&M

5.5523

100.0%

18

13

Tennessee

5.2230

100.0%

13

14

Baylor

4.6927

100.0%

25

15

Michigan St.

4.4364

100.0%

17

16

New Mexico

4.2187

100.0%

9

17

Pittsburgh

4.1917

100.0%

16

18

Vanderbilt

3.9179

100.0%

21

19

Wake Forest

3.8455

100.0%

19

20

Georgia Tech

3.2237

99.9%

23

21

Gonzaga

2.8613

99.8%

24

22

Temple

2.7851

99.7%

22

23

Butler

2.6017

99.5%

15

24

Missouri

2.5025

99.4%

45

25

Brigham Young

2.4711

99.3%

27

26

Ohio St.

2.1161

98.3%

44

27

Rhode Island

1.9961

97.7%

12

28

Xavier

1.7306

95.8%

29

29

Nevada Las Vegas

1.7145

95.7%

30

30

California

1.5895

94.4%

26

31

Northern Iowa

1.5072

93.4%

14

32

Maryland

1.0988

86.4%

35

33

Mississippi

1.0195

84.6%

36

34

Florida

0.8032

78.9%

43

35

Oklahoma St.

0.7879

78.5%

41

36

UAB

0.7865

78.4%

33

37

Florida St.

0.7682

77.9%

40

38

Louisville

0.5037

69.3%

28

39

Richmond

0.3543

63.8%

38

40

Charlotte

0.2627

60.4%

55

41

Washington

-0.0281

48.9%

42

42

Dayton

-0.5092

30.5%

32

43

Texas El Paso

-0.5887

27.8%

52

44

St. Mary's

-0.6747

25.0%

34

45

Clemson

-0.7511

22.6%

39

46

Old Dominion

-1.1323

12.9%

51

The Bubble Bursts Here

 

47

Southern California

-1.2721

10.2%

74

48

Notre Dame

-1.4720

7.1%

47

49

Siena

-1.4911

6.8%

46

50

Marquette

-1.7296

4.2%

56

51

Arizona St.

-1.7441

4.1%

69

52

South Florida

-1.9349

2.7%

48

53

Illinois

-2.0911

1.8%

68

54

Arizona

-2.2358

1.3%

67

55

Virginia Commonwealth

-2.2420

1.2%

59

56

Northeastern

-2.2878

1.1%

60

57

Texas Tech

-2.2927

1.1%

31

58

Utah St.

-2.6141

0.4%

62

59

Cincinnati

-2.6643

0.4%

49

60

Virginia Tech

-2.8030

0.3%

73

61

Wichita St.

-2.8057

0.3%

50

62

Minnesota

-3.0656

0.1%

61

63

Oklahoma

-3.1521

0.1%

71

64

San Diego St.

-3.1564

0.1%

57

65

Northwestern

-3.1845

0.1%

54

66

South Carolina

-3.2396

0.1%

64

67

Memphis

-3.3077

0.0%

65

68

Connecticut

-3.4715

0.0%

37

69

Mississippi St.

-3.6666

0.0%

78

70

Tulsa

-4.0804

0.0%

70

71

William & Mary

-4.1478

0.0%

66

72

Cornell

-4.1486

0.0%

58

73

Virginia

-4.3645

0.0%

76

74

Louisiana Tech

-4.9938

0.0%

80

75

Kent St.

-5.1617

0.0%

72

76

Washington St.

-6.0078

0.0%

98

77

Murray St.

-6.2965

0.0%

105

78

Marshall

-6.8581

0.0%

85

79

Portland

-6.9154

0.0%

89

80

Seton Hall

-7.0002

0.0%

53

81

Nevada

-7.0533

0.0%

79

82

Arkansas

-7.0930

0.0%

81

83

UCLA

-7.1194

0.0%

100

84

Iona

-7.1597

0.0%

91

85

Northern Colorado

-7.3806

0.0%

106

86

North Carolina

-7.4664

0.0%

63

87

New Mexico St.

-7.4913

0.0%

82

88

Weber St.

-7.5132

0.0%

101

89

Oakland

-8.1476

0.0%

90

90

Georgia

-8.7037

0.0%

75

91

Alabama

-8.7530

0.0%

84

92

College of Charleston

-8.8568

0.0%

108

93

Wright St.

-8.9546

0.0%

119

94

St. Louis

-9.0189

0.0%

103

95

Wofford

-9.0350

0.0%

124

96

Drexel

-9.0505

0.0%

104

97

Iowa St.

-9.0696

0.0%

93

98

Colorado St.

-9.1521

0.0%

99

99

Akron

-9.1669

0.0%

116

100

Western Carolina

-9.2220

0.0%

107

101

Sam Houston St.

-9.2904

0.0%

86

102

Boston College

-9.4973

0.0%

83

103

Montana

-9.6101

0.0%

117

104

IUPUI

-9.7762

0.0%

114

105

Morehead St.

-10.0115

0.0%

112

106

Pacific

-10.2548

0.0%

120

107

Wisconsin Green Bay

-10.2742

0.0%

121

108

Missouri St.

-10.3834

0.0%

87

109

Miami FL

-10.5428

0.0%

92

110

Oregon

-10.5552

0.0%

115

111

Southern Mississippi

-10.7429

0.0%

132

112

Harvard

-10.9409

0.0%

110

113

Western Michigan

-11.0723

0.0%

111

114

North Carolina St.

-11.1511

0.0%

95

115

St. John's

-11.2250

0.0%

77

116

George Mason

-11.2671

0.0%

136

117

Indiana St.

-11.4295

0.0%

88

118

Providence

-11.6453

0.0%

96

119

Fairfield

-11.8141

0.0%

128

120

Bradley

-12.0599

0.0%

109

121

Coastal Carolina

-12.0654

0.0%

145

122

Michigan

-12.0815

0.0%

122

123

Cleveland St.

-12.5160

0.0%

125

124

Oral Roberts

-12.5547

0.0%

137

125

Illinois St.

-12.5727

0.0%

126

126

Nebraska

-12.7482

0.0%

102

127

Houston

-12.7795

0.0%

135

128

Colorado

-13.0419

0.0%

113

129

Duquesne

-13.1795

0.0%

97

130

Miami OH

-13.3624

0.0%

133

131

UC Santa Barbara

-13.4435

0.0%

144

132

Creighton

-13.5599

0.0%

123

133

La Salle

-13.7987

0.0%

118

134

Appalachian St.

-13.9372

0.0%

143

135

Davidson

-14.2339

0.0%

146

136

Stanford

-14.2979

0.0%

138

137

Utah

-14.3100

0.0%

142

138

Princeton

-14.5023

0.0%

151

139

St. Peter's

-14.7954

0.0%

150

140

Belmont

-14.9148

0.0%

149

141

Buffalo

-14.9299

0.0%

141

142

Morgan St.

-15.0197

0.0%

167

143

Detroit

-15.0718

0.0%

171

144

Fresno St.

-15.5359

0.0%

162

145

Austin Peay

-15.5383

0.0%

131

146

Auburn

-15.6164

0.0%

129

147

San Jose St.

-15.6225

0.0%

139

148

Western Kentucky

-15.8116

0.0%

152

149

Eastern Kentucky

-15.9513

0.0%

148

150

Long Beach St.

-16.2142

0.0%

156

151

Arkansas St.

-16.3063

0.0%

173

152

Southern Methodist

-16.3065

0.0%

174

153

Oregon St.

-16.3479

0.0%

179

154

Denver

-16.3841

0.0%

140

155

Southern Illinois

-16.4375

0.0%

127

156

George Washington

-16.4731

0.0%

134

157

Seattle

-16.6658

0.0%

226

158

Niagara

-16.6721

0.0%

161

159

East Tennessee St.

-16.8578

0.0%

160

160

Wisconsin Milwaukee

-17.0286

0.0%

168

161

Jacksonville

-17.1056

0.0%

172

162

Rutgers

-17.2155

0.0%

94

163

Central Florida

-17.3065

0.0%

153

164

North Texas

-17.4045

0.0%

170

165

Stony Brook

-18.1669

0.0%

178

166

Vermont

-18.1762

0.0%

182

167

Robert Morris

-18.1873

0.0%

165

168

Boston University

-18.2078

0.0%

175

169

Texas Christian

-18.2499

0.0%

158

170

Valparaiso

-18.4790

0.0%

184

171

Drake

-18.5433

0.0%

159

172

Saint Joseph's

-18.5739

0.0%

147

173

Ohio

-18.5848

0.0%

154

174

Stephen F. Austin

-18.5914

0.0%

180

175

Maine

-18.6102

0.0%

157

176

Ball St.

-18.6223

0.0%

176

177

Hofstra

-18.6865

0.0%

163

178

Rider

-18.7901

0.0%

166

179

Central Michigan

-18.8188

0.0%

192

180

Montana St.

-18.9743

0.0%

201

181

Middle Tennessee

-19.1270

0.0%

191

182

Indiana

-19.2120

0.0%

183

183

Troy

-19.3852

0.0%

189

184

Quinnipiac

-19.9465

0.0%

193

185

Idaho

-20.0575

0.0%

181

186

Radford

-20.1447

0.0%

190

187

Loyola Marymount

-20.3290

0.0%

202

188

Lipscomb

-20.4041

0.0%

203

189

San Francisco

-20.5975

0.0%

197

190

Northern Arizona

-20.6897

0.0%

194

191

South Dakota St.

-20.8522

0.0%

214

192

Texas A&M Corpus Chris

-20.9117

0.0%

205

193

Winthrop

-21.3117

0.0%

199

194

Campbell

-21.3438

0.0%

213

195

The Citadel

-21.3874

0.0%

212

196

Cal St. Fullerton

-21.4777

0.0%

217

197

Lehigh

-21.5023

0.0%

187

198

St. Bonaventure

-21.5537

0.0%

186

199

Iowa

-22.0410

0.0%

155

200

DePaul

-22.1704

0.0%

130

201

Portland St.

-22.6149

0.0%

234

202

Florida Atlantic

-22.6212

0.0%

220

203

Bowling Green

-22.9451

0.0%

198

204

Massachusetts

-23.1637

0.0%

177

205

Wyoming

-23.2339

0.0%

169

206

Canisius

-23.3850

0.0%

204

207

Louisiana Lafayette

-23.6282

0.0%

232

208

Loyola Chicago

-23.7383

0.0%

188

209

Longwood

-23.7814

0.0%

267

210

Loyola MD

-24.1769

0.0%

196

211

Chattanooga

-24.2613

0.0%

211

212

Eastern Michigan

-24.4875

0.0%

216

213

Tennessee Tech

-24.5235

0.0%

200

214

Winston Salem St.

-24.6283

0.0%

278

215

Texas San Antonio

-24.7817

0.0%

219

216

Lafayette

-24.8324

0.0%

218

217

South Carolina St.

-24.9639

0.0%

241

218

Cal St. Northridge

-25.2898

0.0%

229

219

Louisiana St.

-25.3552

0.0%

164

220

San Diego

-25.3874

0.0%

223

221

Eastern Illinois

-25.3896

0.0%

222

222

Southeastern Louisiana

-25.4643

0.0%

233

223

Santa Clara

-25.4827

0.0%

209

224

Boise St.

-25.7749

0.0%

215

225

South Dakota

-25.8575

0.0%

248

226

South Alabama

-25.9262

0.0%

224

227

Mount St. Mary's

-25.9340

0.0%

210

228

Mercer

-26.0400

0.0%

243

229

Hawaii

-26.1814

0.0%

185

230

Delaware St.

-26.4018

0.0%

239

231

Bethune Cookman

-26.4179

0.0%

246

232

NC Wilmington

-26.6708

0.0%

208

233

Lamar

-26.8292

0.0%

221

234

Texas Southern

-26.8375

0.0%

244

235

Binghamton

-26.8946

0.0%

230

236

Liberty

-26.9166

0.0%

250

237

North Florida

-26.9563

0.0%

228

238

Savannah St.

-26.9573

0.0%

320

239

Cal St. Bakersfield

-27.0233

0.0%

328

240

IUPU Fort Wayne

-27.0246

0.0%

247

241

NC Asheville

-27.2204

0.0%

231

242

Georgia St.

-27.3469

0.0%

227

243

Northern Illinois

-27.7218

0.0%

237

244

Pepperdine

-27.7386

0.0%

260

245

Jackson St.

-27.8633

0.0%

258

246

Air Force

-27.9561

0.0%

206

247

Penn St.

-27.9959

0.0%

195

248

Tulane

-28.0016

0.0%

238

249

Army

-28.2957

0.0%

236

250

Yale

-28.4019

0.0%

279

251

Cal Poly

-28.5015

0.0%

275

252

Jacksonville St.

-28.6224

0.0%

249

253

Arkansas Pine Bluff

-28.6908

0.0%

254

254

UC Davis

-28.7008

0.0%

280

255

Texas Arlington

-28.8349

0.0%

253

256

Columbia

-29.3186

0.0%

235

257

East Carolina

-29.5758

0.0%

225

258

Furman

-29.6006

0.0%

273

259

James Madison

-29.7426

0.0%

240

260

Texas St.

-30.1173

0.0%

265

261

UC Irvine

-30.2213

0.0%

262

262

North Dakota St.

-30.2446

0.0%

289

263

Delaware

-30.3011

0.0%

207

264

Navy

-30.3096

0.0%

264

265

Kennesaw St.

-30.3154

0.0%

277

266

Prairie View A&M

-30.5408

0.0%

274

267

NC Greensboro

-30.5586

0.0%

245

268

North Carolina Central

-30.6535

0.0%

346

269

Long Island

-30.9793

0.0%

259

270

UC Riverside

-31.5046

0.0%

263

271

Fairleigh Dickinson

-31.7017

0.0%

256

272

Charleston Southern

-32.1271

0.0%

284

273

Louisiana Monroe

-32.1771

0.0%

255

274

Rice

-32.2289

0.0%

257

275

Bucknell

-32.3743

0.0%

294

276

High Point

-32.4270

0.0%

297

277

St. Francis NY

-32.4861

0.0%

285

278

Hartford

-32.6049

0.0%

290

279

Holy Cross

-32.6388

0.0%

266

280

Samford

-32.6765

0.0%

261

281

Idaho St.

-32.7116

0.0%

272

282

Sacred Heart

-32.8743

0.0%

271

283

Manhattan

-33.1601

0.0%

242

284

Monmouth

-33.2294

0.0%

287

285

North Carolina A&T

-33.6797

0.0%

295

286

Youngstown St.

-34.4670

0.0%

252

287

Pennsylvania

-34.4807

0.0%

318

288

Hampton

-34.5165

0.0%

310

289

Missouri Kansas City

-34.8378

0.0%

302

290

Brown

-34.9306

0.0%

281

291

Arkansas Little Rock

-34.9554

0.0%

251

292

American

-35.3526

0.0%

314

293

Sacramento St.

-35.4580

0.0%

308

294

McNeese St.

-35.8061

0.0%

307

295

Howard

-35.9114

0.0%

315

296

Maryland Eastern Shore

-35.9905

0.0%

306

297

Georgia Southern

-36.1325

0.0%

268

298

New Hampshire

-36.3399

0.0%

291

299

Elon

-36.3935

0.0%

298

300

Towson

-36.4147

0.0%

283

301

Alabama St.

-36.5196

0.0%

332

302

Eastern Washington

-36.6638

0.0%

303

303

Nicholls St.

-36.6763

0.0%

296

304

Norfolk St.

-36.8256

0.0%

313

305

Utah Valley

-36.9412

0.0%

336

306

Illinois Chicago

-37.1719

0.0%

270

307

Central Connecticut

-37.2058

0.0%

324

308

North Dakota

-37.4226

0.0%

327

309

Mississippi Valley St.

-37.4418

0.0%

323

310

Centenary

-37.5738

0.0%

286

311

Southeast Missouri St.

-37.7326

0.0%

300

312

Florida International

-37.8397

0.0%

292

313

Gardner Webb

-37.8550

0.0%

288

314

St. Francis PA

-38.3031

0.0%

293

315

Colgate

-38.3261

0.0%

304

316

NJ Inst of Technology

-38.3279

0.0%

335

317

South Carolina Upstate

-38.4600

0.0%

301

318

Houston Baptist

-38.5964

0.0%

340

319

Fordham

-38.6242

0.0%

276

320

Texas Pan American

-39.3713

0.0%

326

321

Alabama A&M

-39.7488

0.0%

339

322

Dartmouth

-39.9997

0.0%

305

323

Tennessee St.

-40.2181

0.0%

282

324

Western Illinois

-40.3536

0.0%

311

325

Northwestern St.

-40.5233

0.0%

330

326

Evansville

-40.8289

0.0%

269

327

Florida Gulf Coast

-41.5183

0.0%

317

328

SIU Edwardsville

-41.9144

0.0%

333

329

Florida A&M

-42.0506

0.0%

321

330

Virginia Military Inst

-42.0812

0.0%

316

331

Southern Utah

-42.1313

0.0%

312

332

Chicago St.

-42.7028

0.0%

347

333

Albany

-42.8084

0.0%

299

334

Grambling

-43.1698

0.0%

343

335

Toledo

-43.2009

0.0%

309

336

Central Arkansas

-43.4499

0.0%

331

337

New Orleans

-43.7502

0.0%

322

338

Southern

-45.3305

0.0%

341

339

Presbyterian

-45.4483

0.0%

319

340

MD Baltimore County

-45.7070

0.0%

342

341

Stetson

-45.8314

0.0%

325

342

Wagner

-46.5919

0.0%

334

343

Marist

-46.8985

0.0%

329

344

Coppin St.

-47.3440

0.0%

338

345

Tennessee Martin

-48.2640

0.0%

337

346

Alcorn St.

-50.5184

0.0%

344

347

Bryant

-52.6992

0.0%

345