NCAA Tourn. "Dance Card"
CFP "FourCast"
MinV CFB Ranking
Other Sports Research
Current Ranking
Description
Performance
Authors
Media Attention
Past Rankings
Acknowledgements

NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 12, 2017 (FINAL), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula correctly predicted 36 of the 36 at-large bids this year, and has now correctly predicted 209 of 218 at-large bids over the last six years combined (96%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Villanova
45.0797
100.00%
1
2
@Kentucky
39.3276
100.00%
4
3
@Duke
38.4334
100.00%
7
4
Kansas
37.8697
100.00%
3
5
@Arizona
35.7847
100.00%
2
6
North Carolina
34.0019
100.00%
8
7
Butler
32.1645
100.00%
12
8
Florida St.
31.2918
100.00%
13
9
Baylor
30.8161
100.00%
9
10
Oregon
29.6284
100.00%
10
11
Louisville
27.8373
100.00%
6
12
@Gonzaga
27.6279
100.00%
5
13
Florida
26.5750
100.00%
11
14
Notre Dame
25.9889
100.00%
21
15
UCLA
25.9340
100.00%
17
16
Virginia
24.0882
100.00%
18
17
Purdue
21.1859
100.00%
20
18
West Virginia
20.0719
100.00%
24
19
@Iowa St.
19.2709
100.00%
22
20
@Michigan
17.0295
100.00%
27
21
Maryland
16.9279
100.00%
26
22
Minnesota
15.9538
100.00%
19
23
Creighton
15.9095
100.00%
25
24
@SMU
15.6402
100.00%
16
25
Saint Mary's
14.9990
100.00%
15
26
Cincinnati
14.7429
100.00%
14
27
Dayton
14.2238
100.00%
29
28
Arkansas
13.9792
100.00%
28
29
Wisconsin
13.9301
100.00%
36
30
Vanderbilt
11.6703
100.00%
32
31
Virginia Tech
9.9661
100.00%
47
32
@Rhode Island
9.6926
100.00%
31
33
Michigan St.
8.7440
100.00%
43
34
Seton Hall
8.5900
100.00%
44
35
@Middle Tennessee
8.3091
100.00%
34
36
Miami FL
8.2819
100.00%
40
37
Providence
8.0566
100.00%
51
38
South Carolina
7.6958
100.00%
39
39
VCU
7.6735
100.00%
23
40
Marquette
7.5860
100.00%
54
41
Xavier
6.2485
100.00%
37
42
Oklahoma St.
6.1266
100.00%
38
43
Northwestern
5.7705
100.00%
46
44
@UNC Wilmington
5.3191
100.00%
33
45
@Nevada
5.2782
100.00%
35
46
@Wichita St.
4.7327
100.00%
30
47
USC
4.5406
100.00%
41
48
Wake Forest
3.2809
99.95%
45
49
Kansas St.
0.8932
81.41%
52
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
50
Illinois St.
-0.4305
33.34%
42
51
@Vermont
-1.8635
3.12%
48
52
UT Arlington
-2.1822
1.45%
60
53
College of Charleston
-2.9384
0.16%
61
54
Syracuse
-3.0263
0.12%
74
55
@Princeton
-3.1425
0.08%
53
56
Illinois
-3.2093
0.07%
56
57
BYU
-3.2384
0.06%
58
58
Houston
-3.3351
0.04%
55
59
Monmouth
-3.4862
0.02%
57
60
Iowa
-3.9095
0.00%
71
61
Georgia
-4.3585
0.00%
50
62
California
-4.6253
0.00%
49
63
Indiana
-6.1314
0.00%
69
64
Clemson
-6.3540
0.00%
64
65
Alabama
-6.6162
0.00%
75
66
TCU
-7.4868
0.00%
59
67
@East Tennessee St.
-7.7390
0.00%
63
68
@Winthrop
-7.7658
0.00%
77
69
UCF
-8.0687
0.00%
73
70
Tennessee
-8.0718
0.00%
76
71
@Bucknell
-8.1045
0.00%
72
72
Belmont
-8.1706
0.00%
70
73
Akron
-8.9301
0.00%
65
74
Mississippi
-8.9658
0.00%
67
75
@New Mexico St.
-9.0180
0.00%
68
76
Colorado St.
-9.1859
0.00%
66
77
Richmond
-9.5813
0.00%
79
78
Georgia Tech
-10.1985
0.00%
90
79
Boise St.
-10.2720
0.00%
81
80
Valparaiso
-10.3078
0.00%
80
81
Fresno St.
-10.9401
0.00%
88
82
@Florida Gulf Coast
-11.1712
0.00%
85
83
Utah
-11.2869
0.00%
82
84
Ohio St.
-11.9040
0.00%
78
85
Pittsburgh
-12.2298
0.00%
62
86
Oakland
-13.3383
0.00%
99
87
San Francisco
-13.9690
0.00%
89
88
Davidson
-14.2699
0.00%
93
89
New Mexico
-14.3129
0.00%
84
90
Colorado
-14.7745
0.00%
94
91
UNC Asheville
-15.0772
0.00%
97
92
UNC Greensboro
-15.3440
0.00%
96
93
Texas A&M
-15.3812
0.00%
83
94
St. Bonaventure
-15.6609
0.00%
86
95
Cal St. Bakersfield
-15.9246
0.00%
95
96
@Iona
-16.2022
0.00%
101
97
Penn St.
-17.3131
0.00%
91
98
George Mason
-17.5583
0.00%
102
99
San Diego St.
-17.7399
0.00%
106
100
Georgetown
-17.7405
0.00%
92
101
Towson
-18.5626
0.00%
100
102
George Washington
-18.7523
0.00%
103
103
@Northern Kentucky
-18.9942
0.00%
107
104
Furman
-19.1700
0.00%
113
105
Memphis
-20.3352
0.00%
108
106
Nebraska
-20.6097
0.00%
98
107
Ohio
-20.6279
0.00%
114
108
Santa Clara
-20.6389
0.00%
112
109
Connecticut
-21.2006
0.00%
105
110
Georgia St.
-21.4751
0.00%
121
111
Stanford
-21.9058
0.00%
87
112
Lehigh
-22.1816
0.00%
126
113
St. John's
-22.2201
0.00%
115
114
Texas Tech
-22.4306
0.00%
104
115
Louisiana Lafayette
-22.8312
0.00%
122
116
Wright St.
-23.3428
0.00%
124
117
Temple
-23.6683
0.00%
120
118
Old Dominion
-23.8843
0.00%
130
119
Arizona St.
-23.9478
0.00%
111
120
Marshall
-24.0144
0.00%
116
121
La Salle
-24.3511
0.00%
119
122
Louisiana Tech
-24.9576
0.00%
125
123
Auburn
-24.9973
0.00%
109
124
@Kent St.
-25.2323
0.00%
132
125
Tulsa
-25.6013
0.00%
118
126
North Dakota St.
-25.8129
0.00%
131
127
Grand Canyon
-26.1487
---
127
128
Albany
-26.1755
0.00%
141
129
Siena
-26.4045
0.00%
128
130
William & Mary
-26.7621
0.00%
129
131
South Dakota
-26.8361
0.00%
135
132
Saint Peter's
-26.9240
0.00%
138
133
Southern Illinois
-27.6835
0.00%
133
134
New Hampshire
-27.7793
0.00%
144
135
Yale
-27.8593
0.00%
139
136
Harvard
-28.1151
0.00%
140
137
Arkansas St.
-28.8825
0.00%
143
138
North Carolina St.
-28.9220
0.00%
110
139
Chattanooga
-29.3941
0.00%
145
140
@Texas Southern
-29.4899
0.00%
156
141
UC Irvine
-29.9057
0.00%
147
142
Buffalo
-30.1615
0.00%
148
143
Nebraska Omaha
-30.5052
0.00%
152
144
Northeastern
-30.6382
0.00%
150
145
Mississippi St.
-30.8658
0.00%
123
146
Georgia Southern
-31.0968
0.00%
149
147
Loyola Marymount
-31.1862
0.00%
137
148
Texas
-31.2451
0.00%
117
149
@North Dakota
-31.4405
0.00%
153
150
Rice
-31.6163
0.00%
159
151
Toledo
-31.6884
0.00%
146
152
Ball St.
-33.2311
0.00%
160
153
Wyoming
-33.8242
0.00%
142
154
@Troy
-34.0785
0.00%
158
155
@Mount St. Mary's
-34.0864
0.00%
166
156
Northern Iowa
-34.4734
0.00%
151
157
Stony Brook
-34.5101
0.00%
165
158
Canisius
-34.6859
0.00%
171
159
Elon
-34.6998
0.00%
168
160
Washington St.
-35.7633
0.00%
134
161
Liberty
-35.7891
0.00%
170
162
Oklahoma
-35.8565
0.00%
136
163
Eastern Washington
-36.2128
0.00%
169
164
Western Michigan
-36.4607
0.00%
162
165
@New Orleans
-36.5565
0.00%
173
166
Coastal Carolina
-36.7165
0.00%
163
167
Tennessee St.
-36.7253
0.00%
178
168
Green Bay
-36.8123
0.00%
174
169
Samford
-37.2151
0.00%
175
170
Utah St.
-37.2305
0.00%
157
171
UMBC
-37.4118
0.00%
179
172
@Jacksonville St.
-37.5876
0.00%
185
173
@South Dakota St.
-37.7397
0.00%
167
174
Fort Wayne
-39.0167
0.00%
180
175
Boston University
-39.2824
0.00%
181
176
UMKC
-39.3624
0.00%
176
177
Tennessee Martin
-39.3703
0.00%
184
178
Fairfield
-39.4582
0.00%
187
179
Lipscomb
-40.5693
0.00%
194
180
Evansville
-41.0070
0.00%
161
181
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-41.0730
0.00%
188
182
Texas St.
-41.4277
0.00%
190
183
Loyola Chicago
-41.4982
0.00%
172
184
Eastern Michigan
-42.2447
0.00%
177
185
Weber St.
-42.3520
0.00%
193
186
UAB
-42.6878
0.00%
189
187
Mercer
-42.9227
0.00%
192
188
Gardner Webb
-43.0394
0.00%
201
189
@UC Davis
-44.3105
0.00%
198
190
Rutgers
-44.3323
0.00%
154
191
San Jose St.
-44.3502
0.00%
182
192
Wofford
-44.4784
0.00%
196
193
Massachusetts
-44.6596
0.00%
164
194
Rider
-44.7500
0.00%
213
195
Houston Baptist
-45.5016
0.00%
200
196
Navy
-45.5895
0.00%
203
197
Sam Houston St.
-45.8453
0.00%
204
198
@North Carolina Central
-46.3727
0.00%
222
199
UTEP
-46.3787
0.00%
211
200
Fordham
-46.7371
0.00%
207
201
Morehead St.
-46.7806
0.00%
205
202
Penn
-47.4774
0.00%
206
203
Hofstra
-47.5077
0.00%
197
204
Stephen F. Austin
-47.5480
0.00%
208
205
Denver
-47.8708
0.00%
214
206
LSU
-48.4266
0.00%
155
207
Missouri St.
-48.5518
0.00%
199
208
Idaho
-48.7470
0.00%
218
209
Holy Cross
-49.0619
0.00%
216
210
LIU Brooklyn
-49.5223
0.00%
229
211
Montana
-49.8581
0.00%
225
212
East Carolina
-50.1969
0.00%
191
213
San Diego
-50.4397
0.00%
202
214
Loyola MD
-51.3353
0.00%
219
215
Utah Valley
-51.6790
0.00%
223
216
Bradley
-52.5567
0.00%
212
217
North Florida
-52.6640
0.00%
228
218
Long Beach St.
-53.0877
0.00%
227
219
Saint Joseph's
-53.3141
0.00%
195
220
Western Kentucky
-54.2579
0.00%
231
221
Murray St.
-54.6443
0.00%
238
222
Bowling Green
-54.6622
0.00%
217
223
High Point
-54.7774
0.00%
241
224
Wagner
-54.8062
0.00%
247
225
USC Upstate
-55.0332
0.00%
242
226
Central Michigan
-55.7236
0.00%
220
227
IUPUI
-55.9397
0.00%
237
228
Boston College
-56.2685
0.00%
183
229
South Alabama
-56.2849
0.00%
226
230
Saint Louis
-56.3361
0.00%
215
231
Washington
-56.3564
0.00%
186
232
Radford
-56.3634
0.00%
236
233
Lamar
-56.4210
0.00%
248
234
Montana St.
-57.0126
0.00%
245
235
Robert Morris
-57.1884
0.00%
251
236
Pacific
-57.4278
0.00%
209
237
Alcorn St.
-57.9558
0.00%
254
238
Campbell
-59.0093
0.00%
249
239
Charlotte
-59.0108
0.00%
234
240
Indiana St.
-59.0543
0.00%
232
241
Northern Illinois
-59.5303
0.00%
244
242
Illinois Chicago
-59.8949
0.00%
246
243
St. Francis PA
-60.1780
0.00%
268
244
Norfolk St.
-60.4259
0.00%
261
245
UNLV
-61.3239
0.00%
221
246
Hawaii
-61.5882
---
257
247
Southeastern Louisiana
-61.7640
0.00%
263
248
Little Rock
-62.2865
0.00%
243
249
Cal St. Fullerton
-62.3844
0.00%
266
250
DePaul
-62.4956
0.00%
210
251
Air Force
-62.6238
0.00%
224
252
Delaware
-62.7693
0.00%
239
253
James Madison
-62.7887
0.00%
252
254
Eastern Kentucky
-63.9301
0.00%
250
255
Pepperdine
-63.9316
0.00%
235
256
Kennesaw St.
-64.0950
0.00%
278
257
Columbia
-64.6672
0.00%
262
258
Missouri
-64.9502
0.00%
230
259
Austin Peay
-65.0606
0.00%
270
260
UTSA
-65.1406
0.00%
265
261
Army
-65.5528
0.00%
259
262
Youngstown St.
-66.0356
0.00%
255
263
Eastern Illinois
-66.3778
0.00%
274
264
Southeast Missouri St.
-66.4772
0.00%
282
265
Portland
-66.8730
0.00%
233
266
Tennessee Tech
-67.1358
0.00%
284
267
Nicholls St.
-67.1373
0.00%
269
268
Cleveland St.
-67.8565
0.00%
253
269
Bryant
-68.1511
0.00%
280
270
Milwaukee
-68.3090
0.00%
258
271
Quinnipiac
-68.3378
0.00%
264
272
Duquesne
-68.5166
0.00%
240
273
Hampton
-68.6115
0.00%
293
274
Brown
-68.8782
0.00%
272
275
Seattle
-69.1549
0.00%
271
276
Manhattan
-69.5974
0.00%
256
277
Fairleigh Dickinson
-70.2854
0.00%
291
278
Sacramento St.
-70.5700
0.00%
298
279
Savannah St.
-70.7458
0.00%
304
280
Portland St.
-71.5738
0.00%
289
281
Maryland Eastern Shore
-71.6811
0.00%
305
282
Sacred Heart
-72.4579
0.00%
301
283
Niagara
-73.3450
0.00%
283
284
Oral Roberts
-73.5929
0.00%
276
285
Florida Atlantic
-73.6296
0.00%
290
286
Detroit
-73.7096
0.00%
285
287
Miami OH
-73.7702
0.00%
267
288
Charleston Southern
-73.7881
0.00%
295
289
Cornell
-73.9942
0.00%
292
290
Northern Colorado
-74.1318
0.00%
299
291
Incarnate Word
-74.2118
---
294
292
Cal St. Northridge
-74.3285
0.00%
303
293
Abilene Christian
-74.3876
---
300
294
Western Carolina
-74.4576
0.00%
275
295
Marist
-74.6255
0.00%
273
296
The Citadel
-74.6543
0.00%
279
297
Prairie View A&M
-75.0865
0.00%
313
298
Colgate
-75.2717
0.00%
312
299
Appalachian St.
-76.3282
0.00%
277
300
Jacksonville
-76.3331
0.00%
315
301
Southern
-76.4534
0.00%
321
302
Cal Poly
-76.5810
0.00%
308
303
UMass Lowell
-76.6322
---
297
304
Drake
-76.9774
0.00%
286
305
South Carolina St.
-77.0832
0.00%
317
306
Grambling St.
-77.2208
0.00%
324
307
Morgan St.
-77.3087
0.00%
327
308
Dartmouth
-77.5754
0.00%
306
309
Oregon St.
-77.6181
0.00%
260
310
Northwestern St.
-77.8009
0.00%
316
311
Tulane
-78.3249
0.00%
281
312
Jackson St.
-78.4998
0.00%
329
313
NJIT
-78.8559
0.00%
296
314
Central Arkansas
-78.8753
0.00%
309
315
American
-79.0317
0.00%
302
316
Louisiana Monroe
-80.9420
0.00%
288
317
Delaware St.
-82.4341
0.00%
340
318
UC Santa Barbara
-82.5459
0.00%
311
319
Binghamton
-82.6432
0.00%
307
320
Lafayette
-83.1245
0.00%
318
321
Western Illinois
-83.4300
0.00%
323
322
South Florida
-83.8452
0.00%
287
323
Coppin St.
-83.9610
0.00%
338
324
Drexel
-84.3841
0.00%
310
325
McNeese St.
-84.8863
0.00%
319
326
Southern Miss
-85.5564
0.00%
326
327
Hartford
-85.5946
0.00%
325
328
UC Riverside
-85.7322
0.00%
332
329
Mississippi Valley St.
-85.7819
0.00%
336
330
UT Rio Grande Valley
-85.7928
0.00%
314
331
Maine
-85.9686
0.00%
320
332
Howard
-86.0377
0.00%
337
333
Northern Arizona
-86.6675
0.00%
333
334
Stetson
-86.8736
0.00%
330
335
Bethune Cookman
-87.5134
0.00%
346
336
VMI
-89.4922
0.00%
322
337
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-89.5901
0.00%
345
338
Alabama St.
-89.6492
0.00%
342
339
Florida A&M
-90.0808
0.00%
349
340
Chicago St.
-90.3475
0.00%
328
341
FIU
-91.7353
0.00%
334
342
Central Connecticut
-92.0487
0.00%
347
343
North Texas
-92.6209
0.00%
331
344
SIU Edwardsville
-92.9646
0.00%
335
345
Southern Utah
-93.3580
0.00%
343
346
Idaho St.
-93.8408
0.00%
339
347
Longwood
-94.3524
0.00%
341
348
St. Francis NY
-97.6490
0.00%
348
349
Alabama A&M
-97.7369
0.00%
351
350
North Carolina A&T
-98.9871
0.00%
350
351
Presbyterian
-99.1053
0.00%
344
   

This page last updated on Sunday, March 12, 2017 at 6:32 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

Disclaimer