NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"
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NCAA Tournament "Dance Card"    

       

Below are rankings of all NCAA Division I men's basketball teams through the games of Sunday, March 15, 2015 (FINAL), according to the "Dance Card" formula developed by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida, Mike DuMond of Economists Incorporated, and Allen Lynch of Mercer University.

The Dance Card is a formula designed to predict which teams will receive at-large tournament bids from the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.

The formula correctly predicted 33 of the 36 at-large bids this year (92%), and 141 of 146 at-large bids over the last four years combined (97%).

In addition to the Dance Card value and ranking, also shown is the probability that a team with the same profile would have gotten an at-large bid in past years, if today was Selection Sunday. The RPI ranks are from the old RPI formula, in which wins on the road and losses at home are weighted equally. This is the version of the RPI used in the Dance Card's development, and the version used to generate the predictions in all past years. Teams in bold are their conferences' actual or presumed automatic bid winners, with ties broken by highest RPI.

Rank
Team (@=automatic bid)
Dance Card
Chance of Bid
RPI Rank
1
@Kentucky
51.5641
100.00%
1
2
@Wisconsin
45.8065
100.00%
2
3
@Villanova
45.0630
100.00%
3
4
Kansas
40.0649
100.00%
4
5
Duke
39.9002
100.00%
5
6
@Iowa St.
38.8842
100.00%
9
7
Virginia
37.5401
100.00%
6
8
@Arizona
35.4491
100.00%
7
9
Oklahoma
32.1557
100.00%
19
10
@Notre Dame
28.6295
100.00%
15
11
Baylor
25.9884
100.00%
10
12
@Gonzaga
24.7230
100.00%
8
13
Maryland
24.2721
100.00%
13
14
North Carolina
22.7123
100.00%
11
15
Michigan St.
21.7604
100.00%
20
16
@VCU
20.7840
100.00%
14
17
@SMU
19.8518
100.00%
12
18
Providence
19.2689
100.00%
22
19
Louisville
17.8408
100.00%
16
20
Arkansas
17.4584
100.00%
18
21
Xavier
16.9906
100.00%
29
22
West Virginia
16.2233
100.00%
25
23
@Northern Iowa
15.7224
100.00%
17
24
Butler
13.6510
100.00%
27
25
Wichita St.
12.0830
100.00%
21
26
North Carolina St.
11.9350
100.00%
30
27
Utah
11.8414
100.00%
24
28
Oregon
11.4645
100.00%
26
29
LSU
11.2311
100.00%
49
30
San Diego St.
10.7683
100.00%
28
31
St. John's
10.7491
100.00%
32
32
Georgetown
10.7434
100.00%
23
33
Iowa
10.5674
100.00%
33
34
Cincinnati
8.7739
100.00%
39
35
Davidson
8.2851
100.00%
43
36
Purdue
7.7701
100.00%
48
37
Georgia
7.3909
100.00%
38
38
Temple (miss)
6.9340
100.00%
35
39
Oklahoma St.
6.3632
100.00%
46
40
Indiana
5.0855
100.00%
44
41
Ohio St.
4.6179
100.00%
41
42
Mississippi
4.1973
100.00%
50
43
BYU
4.1029
100.00%
34
44
Texas
4.0648
100.00%
36
45
@Stephen F. Austin
3.6164
99.99%
37
46
Colorado St. (miss)
3.3766
99.96%
31
47
Miami FL (miss)
2.6953
99.65%
53
*** THE BUBBLE BURSTS HERE ***
48
Boise St. (miss)
1.1407
87.30%
51
49
Dayton (miss)
0.4388
66.96%
42
50
Tulsa
-0.2954
38.38%
47
51
Old Dominion
-0.9171
17.95%
52
52
@Buffalo
-1.1761
11.98%
40
53
Syracuse
-1.3958
---
54
54
Richmond
-1.9074
2.82%
56
55
Connecticut
-2.1875
1.44%
66
56
@Wofford
-2.8285
0.23%
62
57
Stanford
-2.9714
0.15%
55
58
UCLA (miss)
-3.2035
0.07%
45
59
Kansas St.
-3.3105
0.05%
81
60
Illinois St.
-4.6444
0.00%
59
61
Illinois
-4.6674
0.00%
69
62
@Harvard
-5.4557
0.00%
60
63
Rhode Island
-5.5155
0.00%
68
64
@Valparaiso
-5.5546
0.00%
61
65
Murray St.
-5.7005
0.00%
63
66
Texas A&M
-5.8461
0.00%
64
67
Saint Mary's
-5.8823
0.00%
58
68
@Wyoming
-6.7812
0.00%
74
69
Florida
-7.5105
0.00%
57
70
Central Michigan
-7.8015
0.00%
79
71
Iona
-8.0027
0.00%
72
72
Michigan
-8.1206
0.00%
65
73
Memphis
-8.8939
0.00%
71
74
Pittsburgh
-8.9805
0.00%
67
75
Yale
-9.5375
0.00%
78
76
@Eastern Washington
-9.6362
0.00%
88
77
@Georgia St.
-10.2970
0.00%
73
78
Toledo
-10.6625
0.00%
82
79
Green Bay
-10.8886
0.00%
70
80
Louisiana Tech
-11.0644
0.00%
76
81
South Carolina
-11.4032
0.00%
83
82
UTEP
-12.1015
0.00%
77
83
Arizona St.
-12.8450
0.00%
86
84
Massachusetts
-12.8689
0.00%
80
85
UC Davis
-13.2866
0.00%
90
86
Tennessee
-13.4458
0.00%
85
87
Clemson
-13.7994
0.00%
89
88
Vanderbilt
-13.9339
0.00%
93
89
George Washington
-14.6345
0.00%
95
90
Alabama
-14.7489
0.00%
75
91
Kent St.
-15.3440
0.00%
96
92
La Salle
-15.4401
0.00%
97
93
Sam Houston St.
-15.6688
0.00%
94
94
Minnesota
-15.7122
0.00%
87
95
St. Bonaventure
-16.4548
0.00%
115
96
@Albany
-16.5320
0.00%
108
97
California
-17.1981
0.00%
84
98
Seton Hall
-17.4021
0.00%
92
99
@Northeastern
-17.4594
0.00%
101
100
UNLV
-18.2460
0.00%
100
101
High Point
-18.3147
0.00%
107
102
Evansville
-18.9404
0.00%
109
103
UC Santa Barbara
-19.6658
0.00%
99
104
Bowling Green
-19.8495
0.00%
113
105
Florida St.
-19.9519
0.00%
91
106
@UC Irvine
-20.0974
0.00%
106
107
Akron
-21.3024
0.00%
105
108
William & Mary
-21.6322
0.00%
112
109
Western Kentucky
-22.4104
0.00%
122
110
Washington
-22.8372
0.00%
111
111
@New Mexico St.
-22.9112
0.00%
117
112
Pepperdine
-23.3754
0.00%
136
113
South Dakota St.
-23.6786
0.00%
120
114
Colorado
-23.8410
0.00%
102
115
Chattanooga
-24.0223
0.00%
124
116
@Lafayette
-24.1981
0.00%
130
117
@Belmont
-24.5339
0.00%
126
118
Oregon St.
-24.6122
0.00%
119
119
@North Dakota St.
-24.6139
0.00%
121
120
Northwestern
-24.6396
0.00%
103
121
@UAB
-24.6939
0.00%
116
122
James Madison
-24.7897
0.00%
127
123
Auburn
-25.4218
0.00%
110
124
Penn St.
-25.4344
0.00%
98
125
Stony Brook
-25.4771
0.00%
135
126
Georgia Southern
-25.6450
0.00%
133
127
Western Michigan
-25.8457
0.00%
134
128
Loyola Chicago
-25.9311
0.00%
125
129
Hawaii
-26.4845
0.00%
123
130
Rider
-26.9319
0.00%
146
131
TCU
-27.2180
0.00%
104
132
@Texas Southern
-27.9301
0.00%
158
133
Utah St.
-28.1151
0.00%
140
134
Long Beach St.
-28.1290
0.00%
137
135
Marquette
-28.5462
0.00%
114
136
Louisiana Monroe
-28.7146
0.00%
145
137
Cleveland St.
-29.7299
0.00%
141
138
Florida Gulf Coast
-29.9857
0.00%
142
139
@Coastal Carolina
-29.9936
0.00%
150
140
Montana
-30.1615
0.00%
148
141
Bucknell
-30.5852
0.00%
147
142
Eastern Michigan
-30.7243
0.00%
139
143
Middle Tennessee
-31.1768
0.00%
144
144
North Carolina Central
-31.2726
0.00%
155
145
St. Francis NY
-31.6163
0.00%
159
146
Creighton
-31.7864
0.00%
132
147
Louisiana Lafayette
-31.8642
0.00%
152
148
Wake Forest
-32.0663
0.00%
118
149
Gardner Webb
-32.3097
0.00%
156
150
Radford
-32.5516
0.00%
160
151
@Robert Morris
-32.8074
0.00%
161
152
Nebraska
-32.8087
0.00%
129
153
Eastern Kentucky
-33.0632
0.00%
162
154
Boston College
-33.4673
0.00%
131
155
Portland
-33.5475
0.00%
143
156
San Diego
-33.6781
0.00%
149
157
Oakland
-33.7348
0.00%
154
158
Hofstra
-34.0064
0.00%
171
159
Sacramento St.
-34.6780
0.00%
163
160
UNC Wilmington
-35.0217
0.00%
167
161
Northwestern St.
-35.1896
0.00%
165
162
Monmouth
-35.4533
0.00%
174
163
Oral Roberts
-35.4562
0.00%
173
164
American
-35.5924
0.00%
166
165
Charleston Southern
-35.7230
0.00%
172
166
New Mexico
-36.3543
0.00%
153
167
Washington St.
-36.5222
0.00%
151
168
Lehigh
-36.8312
0.00%
180
169
NJIT
-36.8422
0.00%
178
170
Canisius
-37.0681
0.00%
175
171
Indiana St.
-37.1481
0.00%
170
172
@North Florida
-37.7773
0.00%
188
173
Georgia Tech
-37.9303
0.00%
128
174
Saint Joseph's
-38.6673
0.00%
169
175
@Manhattan
-38.6829
0.00%
176
176
Norfolk St.
-38.6908
0.00%
184
177
Texas Tech
-39.0964
0.00%
138
178
Northern Arizona
-39.4692
0.00%
185
179
Eastern Illinois
-39.5382
0.00%
182
180
San Francisco
-39.5988
0.00%
164
181
Incarnate Word
-40.1377
0.00%
187
182
DePaul
-40.4302
0.00%
168
183
Fresno St.
-40.6632
0.00%
186
184
Bryant
-41.9283
0.00%
194
185
UT Arlington
-41.9874
0.00%
191
186
Princeton
-42.6878
0.00%
189
187
Columbia
-42.9242
0.00%
177
188
Tennessee Martin
-43.3831
0.00%
205
189
Mount St. Mary's
-43.6310
0.00%
198
190
Northern Illinois
-43.6325
0.00%
183
191
Dartmouth
-44.1426
0.00%
200
192
Boston University
-44.6254
0.00%
196
193
Colgate
-44.6542
0.00%
202
194
New Hampshire
-44.9979
0.00%
206
195
Rutgers
-45.5078
0.00%
157
196
East Tennessee St.
-45.8547
0.00%
197
197
USC Upstate
-46.1090
0.00%
213
198
Vermont
-46.1890
0.00%
208
199
Texas A&M Corpus Chris
-46.2987
0.00%
216
200
Maryland Eastern Shore
-46.3727
0.00%
222
201
Tulane
-46.8803
0.00%
193
202
Santa Clara
-46.9291
0.00%
190
203
Milwaukee
-46.9485
0.00%
203
204
St. Francis PA
-47.2122
0.00%
212
205
Morehead St.
-47.3001
0.00%
215
206
Detroit
-47.4104
0.00%
201
207
Holy Cross
-47.5783
0.00%
199
208
Mississippi St.
-48.6630
0.00%
192
209
Mercer
-49.1707
0.00%
217
210
South Dakota
-49.1786
0.00%
225
211
Winthrop
-50.2128
0.00%
227
212
Delaware St.
-50.2897
0.00%
232
213
Charlotte
-50.7452
0.00%
207
214
IPFW
-50.7934
0.00%
226
215
Quinnipiac
-50.8828
0.00%
214
216
USC
-51.9184
0.00%
181
217
East Carolina
-52.2651
0.00%
204
218
Missouri
-52.3351
0.00%
179
219
Duquesne
-52.8646
0.00%
209
220
North Texas
-53.2650
0.00%
218
221
Miami OH
-53.5208
0.00%
219
222
Cal Poly
-54.0706
0.00%
220
223
Western Carolina
-54.3746
0.00%
240
224
FIU
-54.4928
0.00%
234
225
Drexel
-55.3690
0.00%
238
226
Denver
-55.6854
0.00%
221
227
Lamar
-55.8136
0.00%
235
228
Portland St.
-56.2243
0.00%
244
229
Ohio
-56.2794
0.00%
210
230
Cornell
-56.5695
0.00%
233
231
UTSA
-56.9420
0.00%
243
232
UC Riverside
-57.0141
0.00%
230
233
Southern
-57.0205
0.00%
253
234
Navy
-57.6424
0.00%
241
235
Saint Peter's
-57.9652
0.00%
247
236
Army
-58.4574
0.00%
236
237
Northern Colorado
-58.4595
0.00%
248
238
Virginia Tech
-58.5116
0.00%
195
239
Grand Canyon
-58.5474
0.00%
251
240
George Mason
-58.7659
0.00%
211
241
Sacred Heart
-59.1181
0.00%
250
242
Brown
-59.1328
0.00%
242
243
Air Force
-59.6615
0.00%
228
244
Rice
-59.6888
0.00%
249
245
UNC Asheville
-59.7464
0.00%
261
246
Hartford
-59.7558
0.00%
254
247
Texas St.
-59.9252
0.00%
237
248
Delaware
-60.2292
0.00%
257
249
Alabama St.
-60.4338
0.00%
269
250
Houston
-61.2648
0.00%
224
251
LIU Brooklyn
-61.4585
0.00%
258
252
Fordham
-61.6885
0.00%
223
253
UCF
-61.7173
0.00%
229
254
@Hampton
-62.2165
0.00%
268
255
Missouri St.
-62.2289
0.00%
231
256
Appalachian St.
-62.5905
0.00%
263
257
Northern Kentucky
-62.6993
0.00%
264
258
Weber St.
-63.3291
0.00%
260
259
Idaho
-63.6649
0.00%
256
260
Prairie View A&M
-64.6945
0.00%
283
261
Howard
-64.9503
0.00%
284
262
Seattle
-65.0224
0.00%
271
263
Drake
-65.0924
0.00%
246
264
Penn
-65.5528
0.00%
259
265
Siena
-65.6407
0.00%
262
266
IUPUI
-66.0932
0.00%
267
267
Pacific
-66.1041
0.00%
245
268
Elon
-66.6639
0.00%
266
269
Arkansas Little Rock
-66.9406
0.00%
265
270
South Alabama
-67.3628
0.00%
279
271
Lipscomb
-68.0120
0.00%
288
272
Loyola MD
-68.2196
0.00%
270
273
Saint Louis
-68.2608
0.00%
239
274
McNeese St.
-68.2981
0.00%
280
275
UMass Lowell
-68.4242
0.00%
282
276
SIU Edwardsville
-69.0864
0.00%
281
277
Southeast Missouri St.
-69.9799
0.00%
286
278
Loyola Marymount
-70.0211
0.00%
255
279
Marshall
-71.3692
0.00%
277
280
Cal St. Bakersfield
-71.4363
0.00%
302
281
South Florida
-71.5862
0.00%
252
282
UMKC
-71.8490
0.00%
303
283
Arkansas St.
-72.4976
0.00%
285
284
Wagner
-73.1295
0.00%
293
285
Wright St.
-73.1865
0.00%
278
286
Arkansas Pine Bluff
-73.4717
0.00%
312
287
Niagara
-73.5417
0.00%
287
288
Southern Illinois
-74.0548
0.00%
274
289
VMI
-74.1909
0.00%
296
290
Cal St. Northridge
-74.4194
0.00%
276
291
Houston Baptist
-74.4676
0.00%
295
292
Southern Miss
-74.4785
0.00%
273
293
Furman
-75.5211
0.00%
290
294
Bradley
-75.8757
0.00%
272
295
Illinois Chicago
-75.9239
0.00%
291
296
Tennessee Tech
-76.2388
0.00%
289
297
Towson
-76.3937
0.00%
297
298
Southern Utah
-76.4340
0.00%
308
299
Nebraska Omaha
-76.6401
0.00%
305
300
UNC Greensboro
-77.5754
0.00%
306
301
Utah Valley
-77.6842
0.00%
307
302
Samford
-77.8903
0.00%
304
303
Jackson St.
-78.1352
0.00%
327
304
Jacksonville St.
-78.3349
0.00%
301
305
Ball St.
-79.1226
0.00%
275
306
Nevada
-79.3675
0.00%
298
307
Coppin St.
-79.4157
0.00%
317
308
Fairfield
-79.4857
0.00%
292
309
South Carolina St.
-79.8970
0.00%
328
310
College of Charleston
-80.8238
0.00%
294
311
Presbyterian
-81.6394
0.00%
316
312
Nicholls St.
-82.0328
0.00%
324
313
Youngstown St.
-82.2498
0.00%
299
314
Alabama A&M
-82.6020
0.00%
338
315
Longwood
-82.8305
0.00%
318
316
Troy
-82.9278
0.00%
314
317
Kennesaw St.
-83.4300
0.00%
323
318
The Citadel
-83.9416
0.00%
325
319
Florida Atlantic
-84.0116
0.00%
300
320
New Orleans
-84.0504
0.00%
326
321
Marist
-84.5426
0.00%
315
322
Austin Peay
-84.7105
0.00%
313
323
North Dakota
-84.7184
0.00%
321
324
Bethune Cookman
-84.8163
0.00%
344
325
Campbell
-85.0254
0.00%
311
326
Western Illinois
-85.4491
0.00%
310
327
Montana St.
-85.8216
0.00%
320
328
Fairleigh Dickinson
-85.8598
0.00%
319
329
Southeastern Louisiana
-85.9880
0.00%
333
330
Savannah St.
-86.1559
0.00%
331
331
Binghamton
-86.3238
0.00%
329
332
Chicago St.
-86.5796
0.00%
330
333
Cal St. Fullerton
-86.9933
0.00%
309
334
Abilene Christian
-87.0127
0.00%
322
335
Texas Pan American
-87.0912
0.00%
332
336
North Carolina A&T
-87.5725
0.00%
343
337
Jacksonville
-87.6907
0.00%
337
338
Morgan St.
-87.8586
0.00%
335
339
Stetson
-89.2558
0.00%
334
340
Mississippi Valley St.
-91.9017
0.00%
347
341
Idaho St.
-92.1287
0.00%
342
342
Central Connecticut
-93.5259
0.00%
341
343
Alcorn St.
-93.6635
0.00%
348
344
Maine
-93.8408
0.00%
339
345
Tennessee St.
-93.9496
0.00%
340
346
UMBC
-94.9519
0.00%
346
347
Florida A&M
-96.5076
0.00%
350
348
Liberty
-97.7081
0.00%
345
349
San Jose St.
-97.8854
0.00%
336
350
Central Arkansas
-97.9048
0.00%
349
351
Grambling St.
-102.5489
0.00%
351
   

This page last updated on Sunday, March 15, 2015 at 8:18 p.m.



B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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