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College Football Playoff "FourCast"    

   

Below is the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking for this week, covering all Football Bowl Subdivision games through December 3, 2016, according to the "FourCast" formula currently under development by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida. For weeks early in the season in which the CFP selection committee does not announce a ranking, the one shown is a projection of what their ranking would be this week if they did.

The predictions below are based on strongly consistent patterns found in the CFP Selection Committee's weekly rankings during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. If the current CFP selection committee follows these same patterns during 2016, the ranking shown below should closely match the actual CFP ranking. Obviously, there is no guarantee that the current committee will follow a similar protocol.

While the selection committee announces only a top 25, an advantage of the formula is that it can also project the teams that would be ranked from 26 through 128 if the same patterns found in the top 25 were followed. This allows teams to evaluate how close they might have been to being ranked by the committee.

Given that some of the inputs used in the predictive formula may become available just before or even after the committee's announcement of its weekly ranking, the ranking reported below may reflect alternate versions of the model very early in the week, and may be updated as additional information becomes available.

The ranking can be sorted alphabetically by clicking on the first column header.

Team
CFP FourCast
Alabama
1
Ohio State
2
Clemson
3
Washington
4
Penn State
5
Michigan
6
Wisconsin
7
Oklahoma
8
Southern Cal
9
Colorado
10
Florida St
11
Oklahoma St
12
Western Michigan
13
West Virginia
14
Auburn
15
Louisville
16
Stanford
17
Virginia Tech
18
Florida
19
LSU
20
Iowa
21
Pittsburgh
22
Washington St
23
Nebraska
24
Tennessee
25
Texas A&M
26
Miami FL
27
South Florida
28
Utah
29
Boise St
30
Houston
31
Temple
32
Georgia Tech
33
Navy
34
North Carolina
35
Northwestern
36
Minnesota
37
Georgia
38
Memphis
39
Western Kentucky
40
Arkansas
41
Kentucky
42
Troy
43
Vanderbilt
44
Appalachian St
45
Toledo
46
Wyoming
47
Air Force
48
Mississippi
49
North Carolina St
50
Kansas St
51
Tulsa
52
Colorado St
53
California
54
TCU
55
Brigham Young
56
UCLA
57
Oregon
58
Baylor
59
Indiana
60
Missouri
61
Mississippi St
62
New Mexico
63
South Carolina
64
Maryland
65
Oregon St
66
San Diego St
67
Eastern Michigan
68
Louisiana Tech
69
Arizona St
70
Northern Illinois
71
Old Dominion
72
Ohio U.
73
Central Michigan
74
Notre Dame
75
Texas Tech
76
Syracuse
77
Arkansas St
78
Wake Forest
79
Texas
80
Idaho
81
Boston College
82
Central Florida
83
Middle Tennessee St
84
Duke
85
Iowa St
86
SMU
87
Miami OH
88
Arizona
89
Michigan St
90
Southern Miss
91
Texas-San Antonio
92
Rutgers
93
Illinois
94
Army
95
Akron
96
Louisiana-Lafayette
97
South Alabama
98
Purdue
99
Utah St
100
Virginia
101
Cincinnati
102
Hawai`i
103
Kent St
104
Kansas
105
Georgia Southern
106
Tulane
107
Bowling Green
108
New Mexico St
109
UNLV
110
North Texas
111
Nevada
112
Ball St
113
East Carolina
114
Louisiana-Monroe
115
Georgia St
116
San Josť St
117
Florida Int'l
118
Marshall
119
UNC-Charlotte
120
Texas St-San Marcos
121
Connecticut
122
UTEP
123
Massachusetts
124
Rice
125
Buffalo
126
Florida Atlantic
127
Fresno St
128


This page last updated on December 5, 2016 at 12:40 p.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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