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College Football Playoff "FourCast"    

   

Below is the predicted College Football Playoff (CFP) ranking for this week, covering all Football Bowl Subdivision games through December 2, 2017 (FINAL), according to the "FourCast" formula currently under development by Jay Coleman of the University of North Florida. For weeks early in the season in which the CFP selection committee does not announce a ranking, the one shown is a projection of what their ranking would be this week if they did.

The predictions below are based on strongly consistent patterns found in the CFP Selection Committee's weekly rankings during the 2014, 2015, and 2016 seasons. If the current CFP selection committee follows these same patterns during 2017, the ranking shown below should closely match the actual CFP ranking. Obviously, there is no guarantee that the current committee will follow a similar protocol.

While the selection committee announces only a top 25, an advantage of the formula is that it can also project the teams that would be ranked from 26 through 130 if the same patterns found in the top 25 were followed. This allows teams to evaluate how close they might have been to being ranked by the committee.

Given that some of the inputs used in the predictive formula may become available just before or even after the committee's announcement of its weekly ranking, the ranking reported below may reflect alternate versions of the model very early in the week, and may be updated as additional information becomes available.

The ranking can be sorted alphabetically by clicking on the first column header.

Team
CFP FourCast
Clemson
1
Georgia
2
Oklahoma
3
Alabama
4
Ohio State
5
Wisconsin
6
Auburn
7
Southern Cal
8
Penn State
9
Central Florida
10
Miami FL
11
Washington
12
Notre Dame
13
TCU
14
Stanford
15
LSU
16
Michigan St
17
Oklahoma St
18
Washington St
19
Northwestern
20
Memphis
21
Virginia Tech
22
Mississippi St
23
Iowa
24
Boise St
25
Arizona St
26
North Carolina St
27
Boston College
28
Wake Forest
29
Iowa St
30
San Diego St
31
Florida Atlantic
32
South Carolina
33
Michigan
34
Louisville
35
Troy
36
Oregon
37
Purdue
38
Fresno St
39
UCLA
40
Toledo
41
Arizona
42
South Florida
43
Georgia Tech
44
Texas A&M
45
Houston
46
Utah
47
Kansas St
48
Texas
49
Kentucky
50
Florida St
51
West Virginia
52
Mississippi
53
Duke
54
Missouri
55
Navy
56
Syracuse
57
Texas Tech
58
SMU
59
North Texas
60
California
61
Florida
62
Virginia
63
Pittsburgh
64
Northern Illinois
65
Nebraska
66
Army
67
Indiana
68
Maryland
69
Vanderbilt
70
Ohio U.
71
Central Michigan
72
Minnesota
73
Colorado
74
Appalachian St
75
Arkansas
76
Florida Int'l
77
Tennessee
78
Marshall
79
Southern Miss
80
Tulane
81
Arkansas St
82
Akron
83
Wyoming
84
Temple
85
Western Michigan
86
Alabama-Birmingham
87
Buffalo
88
Rutgers
89
Colorado St
90
Texas-San Antonio
91
North Carolina
92
Air Force
93
Middle Tennessee St
94
Louisiana Tech
95
Eastern Michigan
96
Utah St
97
Georgia St
98
UNLV
99
Oregon St
100
Illinois
101
Nevada
102
Baylor
103
Miami OH
104
New Mexico St
105
Louisiana-Monroe
106
Tulsa
107
Cincinnati
108
Kansas
109
East Carolina
110
Western Kentucky
111
South Alabama
112
Old Dominion
113
Idaho
114
Massachusetts
115
Connecticut
116
Brigham Young
117
Bowling Green
118
New Mexico
119
UNC-Charlotte
120
Coastal Carolina
121
Georgia Southern
122
Louisiana-Lafayette
123
Kent St
124
Ball St
125
San Josť St
126
Rice
127
Hawai`i
128
UTEP
129
Texas St-San Marcos
130


This page last updated on December 4, 2017 at 9:55 a.m.


B. Jay Coleman, Ph.D.
Richard deR. Kip Professor of Operations Management & Quantitative Methods
Department of Management | Coggin College of Business | University of North Florida | Jacksonville, FL 32224
jcoleman@unf.edu

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