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Press Release for Friday, August 26, 2016

Poll of Duval County Likely Voters Shows Majority Support Pension Tax

Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192

Jacksonville, Fla. – A new poll of likely voters in Duval County by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, in partnership with The Florida Times-Union, shows that the pension tax referendum has backing from a majority of voters, with 51 percent of respondents supportive. This is an increase from the PORL's June poll in which only 41 percent of respondents supported the pension tax referendum.

 

"The undecided folks from the June survey seem to have gotten on board with Curry’s pension tax plan," said PORL Faculty Director Dr. Michael Binder. "Across party lines, support for the referendum by Republicans is strong, but even the Democrats are more in favor than opposed. This poll is good news for the mayor’s effort to pass the pension sales tax extension."

 

“There’s a pretty big separation in referendum support based on race," Binder continued. "African-Americans don’t love it, indicating the mixed support from the African-American leadership has translated into increased opposition in that community."

"Of the six House districts within Duval County, there are some that are Republican strongholds (HD 11 and HD 16) where the referendum support is heightened, but all districts are net positive across the city," he said.

 

Pension Tax Referendum 

 

Respondents were asked: Do you support or oppose the referendum to be presented to Jacksonville voters in the August 30 primary election that reads: "Permanently closing up to three of the City’s underfunded defined benefit retirement plans, increasing the employee contribution for those plans to a minimum of 10 percent and ending the Better Jacksonville half-cent sales tax are all required to adopt a half-cent sales tax solely dedicated to reducing the City’s unfunded pension liability. Shall such pension liability sales tax, which ends upon elimination of the unfunded pension liability or in 30 years maximum, be adopted?"


Referendum Support/Opposition Duval County


Referendum Support/Opposition Duval

Answer

Likely Primary Voters n= 670

Likely Primary Voters June 2016 n= 553

Support

51%

41%

Oppose

32%

33%

Don’t Know

18%

26%


Support includes respondents who strongly or somewhat support; oppose includes those who strongly or somewhat oppose. Due to rounding, columns may not total 100.

 

Referendum Support/Opposition by Party Affiliation Duval County Likely Primary Voters

 

Referendum Support/Opposition by Party

  Answer

Democrats  (39% of total sample)

Republicans (52% of total sample)

NPA/Others  (9% of total sample)

Support

45%

57%

35%

Oppose

35%

30%

29%

Don’t Know

20%

13%

37%


Support includes respondents who strongly or somewhat support; oppose includes those who strongly or somewhat oppose. Due to rounding, columns may not total 100. n=670

 

Referendum Support/Opposition by Race Duval County Likely Primary Voters


Referendum Support/Opposition by Race

  Answer

White (68% of total sample)

Black (25% of total sample)

Other (7% of total sample)

Support

55%

36%

55%

Oppose

29%

40%

27%

Don’t Know

16%

24%

18%


Support includes respondents who strongly or somewhat support; oppose includes those who strongly or somewhat oppose. Due to rounding, columns may not total 100. n=670

 

Referendum Support/Opposition by Gender


Referendum Support/Opposition by Gender

Answer

Likely Primary Voters Men
46% of total sample

Likely Primary Voters Women 54% of total sample

Support

54%

48%

Oppose

33%

30%

Don’t Know

13%

22%


Support includes respondents who strongly or somewhat support; oppose includes those who strongly or somewhat oppose. Due to rounding, columns may not total 100. n=670

 

Referendum Support/Opposition by Florida House District Duval County Likely Primary Voters


Referendum Support/Opposition by Florida House

Answer

HD 11 (14% of total sample)

HD 12  (16% of total sample)

HD 13  (17% of total sample)

HD 14 (16% of total sample)

HD 15 (18% of total sample)

HD 16 (20% of total sample)

Support

57%

47%

49%

47%

49%

55%

Oppose

35%

34%

24%

36%

35%

26%

Don’t Know

9%

18%

27%

17%

16%

19%


Support includes respondents who strongly or somewhat support; oppose includes those who strongly or somewhat oppose. Due to rounding, columns may not total 100. n=670

 

Methodology


The Duval County Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL) at the University of North Florida, in partnership with The Florida Times-Union, Sunday, Aug. 21, through Wednesday, Aug. 24, by telephone with live callers. Respondents were likely primary voters in Duval County, Florida. Samples were created through voter files provided by Duval County's Supervisor of Elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 670 registered likely voters 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in the 2012 or the 2014 statewide primary election; or were newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary; or new voters registered after June 27, were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, respondent indicated that they would “Definitely Vote” or “Probably Vote” in August’s primary election.

 

The sample had quota for and was weighted to partisan registration and geography by congressional district.The margin of error is +/- 3.8 percent for the survey. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 35 to 65 percent with less than 1 percent unknown. This survey was sponsored by the Times-Union and the PORL and was directed by Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client’s individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784.

 

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