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Press Release for Wednesday, August 10, 2016

John Rutherford Holds Lead in New Florida Congressional District 4 Poll

Andrea Mestdagh, Specialist

Department of Public Relations

(904) 620-2192


Jacksonville, Fla. - A new poll conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida in partnership with WJXT Channel 4 of likely Republican voters in Congressional District 4 shows that former Jacksonville Sheriff John Rutherford leads the race with 30.8 percent, Hans Tanzler is in second place with 12.7 percent and State Rep. Lake Ray carries third place with 9.5 percent. St. Johns County Commissioner Bill McClure holds fourth with 4.7 percent, Ed Malin garnered 2.5 percent, Stephen Kaufman 1.5 percent and Deborah Katz Pueschel .7 percent.

 

"There is very little change from the poll last month and there is still a great deal of uncertainty in this primary," said Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director. "Nassau and St. Johns Counties have almost 10 percentage points higher of 'don't know' responses, which isn't surprising since six of the seven candidates have roots in Duval County."

 

"Rutherford has maintained his lead even as the media campaign has heated up," Binder continued. "The support for both Tanzler and Ray is relatively unchanged from last month, despite the potential of so many undecided voters. McClure has greater support in his home county of St. Johns than in the other counties in the district."

 

Respondents were asked for whom they would vote if the Republican primary election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today.

 

Vote Choice
Candidates Likely Republican Voters (n=600) Likely Republican Voters Results June 2016 (n=403)
Stephen Kaufman 1.50% <1%
Ed Malin 2.50% <1%
Bill McClure 4.70% 2%
Deborah Katz Pueschel 0.70% 2%
Lake Ray 9.50% 9%
John Rutherford 30.80% 27%
Hans Tanzler 12.70% 13%
Don't Know 37.70% 46%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties. 

 

Vote Choice by County
Candidates Likely Republican Voters Duval (n= 349) Likely Republican Voters St. Johns (n= 153) Likely Republican Voters Nassau (n= 98)
Stephen Kaufman 0.90% 2.00% 3.10%
Ed Malin 3.20% 1.30% 2.00%
Bill McClure 2.90% 11.10% 1.00%
Deborah Katz Pueschel 0.90% 0.70% 0%
Lake Ray 12.30% 4.60% 7.10%
John Rutherford 33.80% 26.10% 27.60%
Hans Tanzler 12.00% 12.40% 15.30%
Don't Know 34.10% 41.90% 43.90%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

 

Vote Choice by Gender
Candidates Likely Republican Voters Men (n=293) Likely Republican Voters Women (n=307)
Stephen Kaufman 1.40% 1.60%
Ed Malin 2.40% 2.60%
Bill McClure 5.10% 4.20%
Deborah Katz Pueschel 0.70% 0.70%
Lake Ray 10.20% 8.80%
John Rutherford 31.10% 30.60%
Hans Tanzler 11.60% 13.70%
Don't Know 37.60% 37.80%

*Congressional District 4 includes portions of Duval, St. Johns and Nassau counties.

 

Methodology

 

The WJXT Channel 4 Florida Congressional District 4 Poll was conducted by the Public Opinion Research Laboratory Thursday Aug. 4, through Monday Aug. 8, by telephone. Samples were created through voter files provided by each county's board of elections and selected through the use of randomization among likely voters. Calls were conducted only in English, with 600 registered Republican likely voters, 18 years of age or older. Likely voters were considered people who had voted in statewide primary elections in 2012 or 2014. Newly registered voters that voted in the 2016 presidential preference primary were also included as likely voters. In addition to be considered a likely voter, the respondent indicated that they would "Definitely Vote" or "Probably Vote" in August's primary election.

 

The margin of error is +/- 4 percent. The breakdown of completed responses on a landline phone to a cell phone was 44 to 55 percent with 1 percent unknown. The sample had quota for geography. This survey was sponsored by WJXT Channel 4 and the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at the University of North Florida and is directed by Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs from political, economic, social and cultural projects. The PORL opened in 2001 and is an independent, non-partisan center and a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative. For more information about methodology, contact Binder at porl@unf.edu or at (904) 620-2784. Website: https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/

 

Survey Instrument

Q1. If the Republican Primary election for the US House of Representatives were being held today, for whom would you vote? [Rotate - Leave Someone Else last]

  • Stephen Kaufman
  • Ed Malin
  • Bill McClure
  • Deborah Katz Pueschel
  • Lake Ray
  • John Rutherford
  • Hans Tanzler
  • Someone Else [Not Read]
  • Don't Know [Not Read]
  • Refusal [Not Read]

 

Q2. Are we reaching you today on a landline or cell phone?

  • Landline
  • Cell phone
  • Don't Know [Not Read]
  • Refusal [Not Read]

 

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.

 

-UNF-