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Press Release for Wednesday, October 21, 2015

UNF Poll Reveals Hillary Clinton Holds Significant Lead in Democratic Primary Race

Media Contact: Joanna Norris, Director
Department of Public Relations
(904) 620-2102

 

A new University of North Florida statewide poll of Democratic primary likely voters reveals that if the primary were held today, the majority of respondents (54.6 percent) would vote for Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders landed second place with 15.9 percent, followed by Joe Biden at 11.2 percent. When asked who their second choice would be, 24.9 percent of Democratic primary likely voters would select Biden, closely followed by Sanders at 22.3 percent. Nineteen percent of respondents would opt for Clinton.

When asked what’s the most important problem facing the United States today, 32 percent of Democratic primary likely voters think it’s the economy, jobs or unemployment. For 13.6 percent of respondents, education is the most important problem, while 12.7 percent believe it’s health care.

An overwhelming majority (76.4 percent) of Democratic primary likely voters approve of the way President Barack Obama is handling his job, while 76.5 percent approve of the way Vice President Joe Biden is handling his job. For Marco Rubio, the responses shifted in the opposite direction, with only 22.1 percent approving of the way he is handling his job in the U.S. Senate.

When asked about candidate favorability, the vast majority of Democratic primary likely voters (78.7 percent) have a favorable view of Clinton. Not surprisingly, when Republican primary likely voters were asked the same question, only 10 percent held a favorable view of Clinton. Also, most Democratic primary likely voter respondents—80.8 percent—view Biden favorably.

The most important qualities that Democratic primary likely voters are looking for in the next president are honesty (19.4 percent), followed by leadership (8.2 percent) and integrity (4.5 percent). These results are strikingly similar to those from the Republican Primary likely voter sample.

When asked about the Democratic candidate debate that was held October 13, a slight majority of respondents watched at least some of it (38.3 percent said “yes,” 13.2 percent said “only some of it”). Of those who watched the debate, 64.7 percent identify as very liberal.

The Public Opinion Research Laboratory (PORL), through the use of a 27-station telephone-polling laboratory at the University of North Florida, conducted the telephone survey. The PORL is a full-service survey research facility that provides tailored research to fulfill each client's individual needs. Since its opening in 2001, the PORL has conducted over 120 research projects, which include focus groups, data collection, telephone, online and economic impact surveys. The PORL is a charter member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research Transparency Initiative.

Approximately 200 UNF students participated in the data collection. A polling sample of randomly selected adult (18 years of age or older) Democratic likely voters was drawn from the Florida Division of Elections’ voter file. Likely voters are classified as voters who cast a ballot in at least 51 percent of recent elections in which they were eligible to vote (since 2008 general and primary elections). Respondents in the sample, when called, were asked for by their first and last name to ensure the interview was taken by the correct individual in the household.

For non-completes with a working residential or cell phone line, at least five callbacks were attempted. Calls were made from 5 to 9 p.m. nightly from October 14 through October 19 and include 632 adult registered Democrat likely voters in the State of Florida with a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.9 percent. Stratified sampling, using the 10 designated market areas in Florida as sub groups, was used for geographical representation. Quotas were placed on each sub group to ensure a proportionate amount of completed surveys from across the state. The total sample was weighted by age, gender and race to reflect the adult registered Democrat primary likely voter population in Florida.

Below are the full results. For more information or questions about methodology, contact Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF assistant professor of political science, at (904) 620-1205 or m.binder@unf.edu.

UNF, a nationally ranked university located on an environmentally beautiful campus, offers students who are dedicated to enriching the lives of others the opportunity to build their own futures through a well-rounded education.






Survey Results
All choices read to respondent except when specified by “Volunteer” (Vol)

Q6a. If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, for whom would you vote? [All choices randomized and read to respondent]
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=632
Joe Biden 11.2%
Hillary Clinton 54.6%
Lincoln Chafee <1%
Martin O’Malley <1%
Bernie Sanders 15.9%
Jim Webb <1%
Somebody Else  3.8%
Don’t Know (Vol) 7.7%
No Answer (Vol) 5.5%


Q6b. Who would be your second choice? [All choices not read to respondent]
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=631
Joe Biden 24.9%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Lincoln Chafee <1%
Martin O’Malley 2.8%
Bernie Sanders 22.3%
Jim Webb 1.3%
Somebody Else  3.5%
Don’t Know (Vol) 12.9%
No Answer (Vol) 12.6%















Q1. What do you think is the most important problem facing the U.S. today?   [Answer choices randomized]

Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=632 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N=641
Economy/ Jobs or Unemployment 32% 35.4%
Terrorism 11.4% 18.1%
Immigration 6.1% 13.5%
Education 13.6% 5.4%
Political Leadership (Vol) 2% 5.4%
Healthcare 12.7% 4.9%
Social Security 4.9% 3.7%
Morality/Values (Vol) <1% 2.4%
National Security (Vol) <1% 2.1%
National Debt (Vol) <1% 2%
Environment 7.1% 1.8%
Crime <1% <1%
Something Else (Vol) 5.6% 3.6%
Don’t Know (Vol) 1.1% <1%
No Answer (Vol) 1.5% 1%

Q3.  Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Barack Obama is handling his job as president of the United States?
Democratic Primary
Likely Voters
N=632
Strongly Approve 51.8%
Somewhat Approve 24.6%
Strongly Disapprove 7.3%
Somewhat Disapprove 14.2%
Don’t Know (Vol) 1.1%
No Answer (Vol) 1.1%


Q4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Joe Biden is handling his job as vice president of the United States?
Democratic Primary
Likely Voters
N=632
Strongly Approve 48.3%
Somewhat Approve 28.2%
Somewhat Disapprove 5.1%
Strongly Disapprove 5.9%
Don’t Know (Vol) 8.5%
No Answer (Vol) 4.1%

Q5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way that Marco Rubio is handling his job as U.S. Senator?
Democratic Primary
Likely Voters
N=632 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N=630
Strongly Approve 7% 38.8%
Somewhat Approve 15.1% 35.7%
Somewhat Disapprove 18.9% 7.3%
Strongly Disapprove 41.3% 7.5%
Don’t Know (Vol) 15.2% 8.3%
No Answer (Vol) 2.5% 2.3%

Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people, or if you have never heard of them.
Q8. Donald Trump

Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=622 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N=620
Favorable 19.7% 52.5%
Unfavorable 76.4% 39.9%
Never Heard of Him <1% <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 2.5% 3.5%
No Answer (Vol) <1% 3.6%


Q9. Jeb Bush
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=623 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 620
Favorable 28.7% 64.9%
Unfavorable 64.9% 28.8%
Never Heard of Him 1.4% <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 4.3% 4.6%
No Answer (Vol) <1% 1.3%

Q10. Marco Rubio
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=624 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 621
Favorable 23.9% 81.1%
Unfavorable 64.7% 13%
Never Heard of Him 1.9% <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 7.8% 4.2%
No Answer (Vol) 1.8% 1%

Q11. Hillary Clinton
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=625 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 621
Favorable 78.7% 10%
Unfavorable 17.7% 87.7%
Never Heard of Her <1% <1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 1.7% 1.3%
No Answer (Vol) 1.2% <1%

Q12. Joe Biden
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=623 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 621
Favorable 80.8% 25.2%
Unfavorable 11.1% 65.7%
Never Heard of Him 1.1% 1.1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 5.6% 5.7%
No Answer (Vol) 1.4% 2.3%


Q13. Can you tell me in a word or two, what is the most important quality that you’re looking for in the next president? [Answer Choices Not Read]
Democratic
Primary Likely
Voters
N=584 Republican
Primary Likely
Voters
N=619
19.4% Honest 25.7%
8.2% Leadership 10.4%
4.5% Integrity 4.1%
2.6% Intelligent 2.6%
2.9% Strength 2.2%
<1% Christian 1.7%
0% Conservative 1.7%
2.6% Experienced 1.4%
2.3% Caring/Compassionate <1%

Q14. We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. Here is a five-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from very liberal to very conservative. Where would you place yourself on this scale?
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=619 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 617
Very Liberal 19% 1.2%
Slightly Liberal 24.2% 4.5%
Moderate; middle of the road 33% 18.2%
Slightly Conservative 10.8% 33.3%
Very Conservative 8% 41.6%
Don’t Know (Vol) 3% 1.1%
No Answer (Vol) 2% <1%


In this next section, we will ask you some questions about immigration.
Q24. Which comes closest to your view about what government policy should be toward unauthorized immigrants now living in the United States? You can just tell me the number of your choice.
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N=598 Republican Primary Likely Voters
N= 601
Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 7.9% 19%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 10.4% 23.4%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 4.1% 8.4%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 43.2% 38.5%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 28.6% 7.1%
Don’t Know (Vol) 3.1% 1.8%
No Answer (Vol) 2.8% 1.9%

Q31a. Did you happen to watch the debate among the Democratic candidates that was held Tuesday night, October 13th?
Democratic Primary Likely Voters
N= 585
Yes 38.3%
Only some of it (Vol) 13.2%
No 47.6%
Don’t Know (Vol) <1%
No Answer (Vol) <1%

Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Ideology by debate viewing
Very Liberal 
Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly/Very Conservative
Yes* 64.7% 58% 47.7% 41.4%
No 35.3% 42% 52.3% 58.6%
*includes watched only some of it

Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Vote Choice by Race and Ethnicity
White/Caucasian African American
Hispanics/Latino

Joe Biden 8.2% 18.5% 8.4%
Hillary Clinton 54.3% 55.1% 61.9%
Lincoln Chafee <1% <1% 0%
Martin O’Malley <1% 0% <1%
Bernie Sanders 18.1% 11.1% 12%
Jim Webb <1% 0% 1.6%
Somebody Else  3.3% 3.3% 7.5%
Don’t Know 7.5% 8.4% 6.3%
No Answer 7.2% 2.9% 1.4%

Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Vote Choice by Ideology
Very Liberal 
Slightly Liberal Moderate Slightly/Very Conservative
Joe Biden 11.2% 10.8% 13% 11.4%
Hillary Clinton 55.5% 60.7% 54.7% 47%
Lincoln Chafee 0% <1% 0% 2.2%
Martin O’Malley 0% <1% <1% <1%
Bernie Sanders 28.8% 20% 10.9% 9.3%
Jim Webb 0% 0% <1% 1.6%
Someone else (Vol) 1.2% 0% 4.8% 9%
Don’t Know (Vol) 2.3% 5.7% 11.4% 8%
No Answer (Vol) <1% 2.2% 4.1% 10.8%


Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Immigration Position by Race
White/Caucasian
African American
Hispanic/Latino

Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 8.7% 7% 2.7%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 10.4% 9.8% 5.2%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 4.1% 4.2% 5.2%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 43.2% 39.8% 63.3%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 28.1% 30.8% 21.9%
Don’t Know (Vol) 3.7% 2.7% <1%
No Answer (Vol) 1.9% 5.6% 1.1%



Democratic Primary Likely Voters: Immigration Position by Ideology

Very Liberal
Somewhat Liberal Moderate Slightly/
Very Conservative

Make them all felons and send them back to their home country. 1.1% 4.1% 9% 16%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for a limited amount of time. 6.7% 8.4% 15.5% 6.9%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. as guest workers for an unlimited amount of time, but not allow them to obtain citizenship. 1.7% 8.3% 2.7% 4.5%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship after paying back taxes and fines. 39% 52.4% 40.7% 41.1%
Allow them to stay in the U.S. and eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship without penalties. 47.3% 20.3% 26.4% 25.3%
Don’t Know (Vol) 2.4% 3.8% 2.7% 2.3%
No Answer (Vol) 2% 2.8% 3% 3.9%



 

 

 

 


-UNF-