UNF Poll Shows Residents Expect Direct Hurricane Hit: Less Than 50 Percent Are Prepared for Season

Contact: Joanna Norris, Assistant Director
Department of Media Relations and Events
(904) 620-2102



A new University of North Florida poll shows that Jacksonville residents expect a direct hit from a hurricane, but the majority of residents on the First Coast aren’t prepared for the upcoming season, which runs June through November.

This project was a group effort conducted by the Political Inquiry and Analysis class taught by Dr. Matthew Corrigan, associate professor of political science at UNF. After reviewing the Hurricane Katrina report from the Florida House of Representatives, 25 students constructed a questionnaire and collected the data. UNF students also presented the results to Chip Patterson, Duval County Emergency Preparedness director.

The supervised poll, conducted between April 10 and April 17, was conducted at the Public Opinion Research Laboratory at UNF and was performed through the use of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing.

The survey includes 350 Jacksonville residents who were selected through the use of Random-Digit-Dialing methodology. To ensure a representative sample, calls were made from 5 p.m. to 9 p.m. Monday through Friday. Margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 5.24 percent.

Among the findings:

--Sixty-four percent of survey respondents believe that it’s likely Jacksonville will experience a direct hit from a hurricane over the next five years; however, 48 percent of residents don’t have a hurricane survival kit assembled for the upcoming hurricane season.

--Seventy-eight percent of residents believe their home is prepared for a Category 1 or Category 2 storm, yet only 39 percent of respondents believe Jacksonville residents in general are prepared for a direct hit from a hurricane.

--Falling trees were a major concern for 40 percent of respondents, while 36 percent were most concerned about wind damage and 9 percent were concerned about storm surge.

--The majority of respondents—97 percent—said they have reliable transportation in the event of an evacuation. Sixteen percent said they know someone who needs government assistance to evacuate.

--If Jacksonville residents had to evacuate, 47 percent would stay with a family or friend, 16 percent would go to a hotel and 15 percent would stay at a shelter.

--The majority of residents living on the First Coast would evacuate in the event of a Category 3 hurricane (111-130 mph). In case of a Category 2 storm, 46 percent of those who would evacuate would drive over 100 miles.



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